6月10日周二，A股早盘震荡调整，银行股继续走强，带动沪深300指数、上证50指数反弹。港股恒指、恒科指窄幅 震荡，恒科指下跌，生物科技板块继续走强，泡泡玛特再创新高。债市方面，国债期货继续上涨。商品方面，国内 商品期货涨跌不一，焦煤焦炭领跌，铝合金上市首日一度涨超5%。核心市场走势： | 代码 | 名称 | 两日图 | 现价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 000001 | 上证指数 | | 3404.85 | 5.08 | 0.15% | | 399001 | 深证成指 | 1 m | 10251.59 | 1.45 | 0.01% | | 399006 | 创业板指 | V | 2061.74 | 0.45 | 0.02% | | 000300 | 沪深300 | Mar | 3895.75 | 10.51 | 0.27% | | 000016 | FJF50 | MW! | 2696.58 | 9.76 | 0.36% | | 000680 | 科创综指 | | 1200.67 | -5.38 | -0.45% | | 0006 ...

Group 1 - The performance of the Hong Kong stock market in the first half of 2025 was notable, significantly outperforming A-shares and showing resilience despite the impact of "reciprocal tariffs" [1][10] - The market has faced challenges, including pulse-like rebounds and a concentration of performance in a few sectors, with only 35% of stocks outperforming the index since the beginning of the year [1][13] - The outlook for the second half of 2025 is uncertain, with the potential for the market to maintain resilience amidst tariff uncertainties and prevailing sentiments [1][14] Group 2 - The core issue facing the Chinese economy is the ongoing credit contraction in the private sector, driven by a mismatch between return expectations and costs, rather than a lack of liquidity or low interest rates [2][16] - As of April, China's M2 reached 325 trillion RMB, 2.4 times GDP, and household savings hit a record high of 145 trillion RMB, indicating ample liquidity [2][16] - The actual interest rate remains high relative to the natural rate, creating a situation where return expectations for residents and enterprises are lower than their financing costs [2][17] Group 3 - Solutions to the credit contraction include increasing return expectations and lowering financing costs, with a focus on external interventions such as fiscal policies or new growth points like AI technology [3][22] - The current credit cycle is not in a phase of significant deleveraging but is also not ready for substantial expansion, suggesting a period of stagnation in the second half of 2025 [4][27] - Key factors influencing the credit cycle include tariffs, fiscal policy, and AI developments, with the relative changes in these areas being crucial for future market direction [4][27] Group 4 - The market is characterized by excess liquidity and limited returns, leading to overall index fluctuations and structural opportunities [5][41] - Investors are seeking either stable returns or growth returns, with sectors like new consumption and technology showing significant improvements in return on equity (ROE) [6][42] - Historical patterns indicate that the current market conditions resemble previous periods of wide index fluctuations, providing opportunities for sector-focused investments [7][41] Group 5 - The outlook for corporate earnings in 2025 suggests a slight growth of 2% under a 30% tariff scenario, with overall earnings growth expected to be limited [8][45] - Valuation levels are constrained, with high dividend yields of 5-6% and a crowded new economy sector, indicating limited room for overall market recovery [8][48] - The inflow of southbound funds remains a significant driver for the Hong Kong market, with an estimated inflow of 200-300 billion HKD expected this year [9][9]

Core Viewpoint - The recent downgrade of the rating for Mixue Group by several foreign investment banks has sparked significant market attention, yet the stock experienced a notable increase following the downgrade, indicating a complex market sentiment [1][2]. Group 1: Stock Performance and Market Reaction - Mixue Group's stock price rose over 9% in early trading on Monday, leading to a collective surge in other new consumption leaders, with Mixue closing up 5.41% [1]. - The inclusion of Mixue Group, along with Gu Ming and Bluetok, in the Hong Kong Stock Connect list on June 9 has provided a short-term boost, allowing southbound funds to purchase these stocks [1][4]. - Despite the positive short-term performance, analysts caution that high valuations and upcoming lock-up expirations may pose risks to stock prices in the medium term [1][4]. Group 2: Valuation and Analyst Ratings - Mixue Group's stock has seen a significant increase since its IPO, with a peak price of 618.5 HKD, representing a 205% rise from its initial offering price of 202.5 HKD [2]. - Merrill Lynch and UBS have downgraded Mixue Group's investment rating due to high valuations, with a current dynamic P/E ratio near 44 times, exceeding the industry average of 1.9 times [2]. - UBS highlighted that Mixue Group's overseas business has faced setbacks, with negative net openings and a 35% decline in same-store sales growth in 2024 [2]. Group 3: Future Prospects and Risks - Domestic securities firms remain optimistic about Mixue Group, with Guosen Securities projecting a store count of 100,000 in the next five years, including 65,000 in China and 15,000 overseas [3]. - The upcoming lock-up expirations for various companies, including Mixue Group on September 3, 2025, could lead to significant selling pressure, impacting stock performance [5].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent performance of A-shares and Hong Kong stocks, highlighting the contrasting drivers behind their respective market movements and the potential investment opportunities arising from these trends [10][11][12]. Group 1: A-share Market Insights - A-shares have experienced a significant rally, with the market showing a five-day consecutive rise and a cumulative increase of 52 points, reaching close to 3400 points [3][4]. - The average position of retail investors has hit a historical low, indicating that many missed out on the recent market upturn due to bearish sentiment [2]. - The driving force behind the A-share market's rise is attributed to market capitalization, with smaller-cap stocks outperforming larger ones, leading to thematic investments in sectors like nuclear fusion and stablecoins [11]. Group 2: Hong Kong Stock Market Insights - The Hang Seng Index has reached a new high of 24181.43 points, marking a recovery since the trade tensions began in April [8][9]. - The rise in Hong Kong stocks is primarily driven by valuation, with cheaper stocks showing better investment potential, particularly those that have seen significant declines in the past [12][13]. - The influx of capital into the Hong Kong market is largely from domestic institutions and individuals, seeking opportunities in sectors not available in A-shares, such as innovative drugs and new consumption trends [14][15][18]. Group 3: Sector-Specific Developments - The solid-state battery sector is highlighted as a key area of growth, with expectations for installed capacity to increase significantly from 0.8 GWh last year to 7 GWh in 2024, indicating a substantial market expansion [23][24]. - The article emphasizes the importance of solid-state electrolytes in the development of solid-state batteries, with a focus on the long-term potential of sulfide-based technologies [27]. - The article suggests that the current phase of the solid-state battery industry is moving beyond the nascent stage and is poised for significant growth as production scales up [24][25]. Group 4: Policy and Market Outlook - The article outlines potential incremental policies expected to be introduced in June, including monetary and fiscal measures aimed at supporting consumption and innovation [28]. - A key resistance level for the A-share market is identified at 3417 points, with a breakthrough expected to accelerate market momentum [30].

Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong stock market has entered a technical bull market, with the three major indices (Hang Seng, Hang Seng Tech, and Hang Seng China Enterprises) rebounding over 20% from their April lows, and all showing year-to-date gains exceeding 20% [1][2]. Group 1: Market Performance - The year-to-date performance of the three indices is as follows: Hang Seng Index +20.55%, Hang Seng Tech Index +21.60%, and Hang Seng China Enterprises Index +20.44% [2]. - The median increase across 28 industry indices in the Hang Seng is around 10%, with sectors like pharmaceuticals, technology, and new consumption leading the gains [4]. Group 2: Economic Cycles - Key economic cycles influencing the market include unprecedented low interest rates and policy easing for insurance capital equity investments, which have been discussed extensively [6]. - The rebound in the platform economy and supportive policies for the home appliance sector have benefited major internet companies like Xiaomi and JD.com, while companies like Pinduoduo have struggled due to lack of support [4]. Group 3: Sector Analysis - The biotechnology index has seen significant gains, with the Hong Kong-listed biotechnology index up by 55.17%, and other indices like the new economy index and technology index also showing strong performance [5]. - The previous bull market from early 2019 to early 2021 was characterized by a surge in technology stocks, while the current market is more balanced across various sectors, including new consumption and innovative pharmaceuticals [7]. Group 4: Investment Insights - Recent trends indicate a strong performance in the AI sector, particularly in the ChiNext AI index, which has outperformed the Sci-Tech Innovation Board AI index [21][25]. - The recent surge in the innovative pharmaceutical sector is attributed to government policies aimed at improving public health and accelerating the approval of innovative drugs [27]. Group 5: International Relations and Market Sentiment - Ongoing discussions between the US and China are progressing, particularly regarding rare earth exports, which have seen a month-on-month increase of nearly 23% [29]. - The overall market sentiment is improving, with the S&P 500 reaching 6000 points, indicating a rise in global risk appetite [30].

首先，受全球多元化需求推动，客户较以往更愿意增加中国股票头寸。"我们接触的大多数全球投资者 都明确表达了重新增加对中国的敞口的兴趣。"她在报告中表示。 【导读】全球投资者增配中国意愿增强，新技术和新商业模式最受关注 摩根士丹利中国首席股票策略师王滢(Laura Wang)在6月8日发布的研究报告中指出，全球投资者对中国 的情绪改善，相较于过去，他们增配中国的意愿增强，对科技和新消费行业的信心增强。在中国股票内 部，她重申相对更看好港股和ADR(美国存托凭证)的观点。 全球投资者配置意愿增强 王滢在报告中总结了客户对中国市场的态度变化。 王滢认为，2025年截至目前，港股和美国上市的存托凭证的表现超越A股。数据显示，截至2025年6月6 日，沪深300指数年初至今下跌1.5%，同期恒生指数和MSCI中国指数则分别上涨19%和16%，尽管A股 和港股市场很大程度上受到同一宏观变量影响。在王滢看来，下述因素导致在岸和离岸市场表现分化。 首先，与AI和新消费相关的个股，特别是大盘股多在港股市场上市。与此同时，部分受青睐的A股公司 选择来港股进行双重上市，如2024年底的美的和今年的其他例子。因此，从个股机会角度来看， ...

Key Points - The A-share market experienced a slight rebound from June 3 to June 6, 2025, with the Shanghai Composite Index, ChiNext, and Shenzhen Component Index rising by 1.13%, 2.32%, and 1.42% respectively. The average daily trading volume reached 1.2 trillion, a 10.5% increase compared to the previous week [14][2] - The "technology narrative" is regaining focus, with upcoming events such as the DeepSeek-R1 upgrade and major developer conferences expected to drive a rebound in the tech sector. The core of this narrative lies in the emergence of popular applications or significant technological advancements [15][3] - The "seesaw effect" in innovative drugs and new consumption sectors indicates a shift in market sentiment, often occurring during policy formulation or data vacuum periods. Historical patterns suggest that speculative phases are transitional, with a return to performance-driven stocks once clearer policy signals and economic data emerge [16][3] - The Shanghai Stock Exchange is promoting increased dividend payouts and frequency among listed companies, recognizing the growing importance of dividend assets in long-term capital allocation. This initiative aims to enhance company investment value and diversify the product supply of dividend index-related products [17][18] Fund Performance Tracking - The Active Equity Fund Selection Index rose by 1.70% last week, achieving a cumulative excess return of 11.55% since inception [4] - The Value Equity Fund Selection Index increased by 0.76%, with a cumulative excess return of -4.69% since inception [5] - The Balanced Equity Fund Selection Index saw a rise of 1.91%, with a cumulative excess return of 4.48% since inception [6] - The Growth Equity Fund Selection Index rose by 2.31%, achieving a cumulative excess return of 14.96% since inception [7] - The Pharmaceutical Equity Fund Selection Index increased by 2.41%, with a cumulative excess return of 18.85% since inception [8] - The Consumer Equity Fund Selection Index rose by 1.49%, achieving a cumulative excess return of 15.32% since inception [9] - The Technology Equity Fund Selection Index increased by 2.72%, with a cumulative excess return of 12.00% since inception [10] - The High-end Manufacturing Equity Fund Selection Index rose by 2.48%, with a cumulative excess return of -2.35% since inception [11] - The Cyclical Equity Fund Selection Index increased by 2.14%, achieving a cumulative excess return of 3.32% since inception [12]

6月9日，随着布鲁可、古茗和蜜雪集团被调入港股通标的生效，三只新消费个股均大涨，其中布鲁可上 涨达22.34%，总市值超过480亿港元，今年上市以来上涨76.37%。古茗和蜜雪集团均上涨超过4%，总市 值分别超650亿和超2000亿港元，上市以来上涨达176.5%和115.84%。 这一调整意味着内地投资者可以直接通过港股通机制投资这些新消费龙头，无需绕道香港市场，为这些 公司带来了增量资金的注入。 Wind数据显示，被调入港股通名单时间，布鲁可用了99个交易日，古茗用了79个交易日，而蜜雪集团 仅用了66个交易日。 深交所发布关于深港通下港股通标的调整的通知。因恒生综合中型股指数实施成份股调整，根据《深圳 证券交易所深港通业务实施办法》的有关规定，港股通标的证券名单发生调整，调入布鲁可(00325)、 古茗(01364)、蜜雪集团(02097)，自2025年06月09日起生效。 | 代码 | 简称 | 调整方向 | | --- | --- | --- | | 00325 | 布鲁可 | 调入 | | 01364 | 古落 | 调入 | | 02097 | 蜜雪集团 | 调入 | ● 估值偏高 蜜雪集团的动态 ...

Group 1 - The report highlights the transition from a "China-US strategic stalemate" to a "China strategic opportunity period," indicating that China's economic and trade connections with emerging markets are strengthening while ties with US allies are declining [3][24][25] - The A-share market is positioned to potentially enter a bull market phase, driven by increasing household asset allocation towards equities as traditional investment returns decline [3][41][50] - The report suggests that the current market has not yet signaled the start of a bull run, emphasizing the need for careful timing in investment decisions [3][4][5] Group 2 - The report notes that the supply-side improvements are clear, but the demand-side factors remain complex and uncertain, impacting the stability of economic expectations for 2025 [4][5] - It discusses the ongoing mid-term adjustments in the technology sector, indicating that breakthroughs in applications depend on foundational technological advancements [4][5] - The new consumption trend is identified as an independent industry trend, with cautious optimism about its potential to drive consumer spending in the future [4][5] Group 3 - The report updates the profit forecast for A-shares, predicting a mixed performance with a significant drop in net profit growth in the latter half of 2025 [4][5] - It emphasizes that the asset management industry is not yet prepared for a bull market, as the necessary conditions for a significant inflow of capital have not been met [5][6] - The potential for a "China-style slow bull market" is discussed, with expectations for a longer duration of market improvement despite weaker elasticity in fundamental improvements [5][6] Group 4 - The report identifies key sectors such as domestic AI, embodied intelligence, and defense as having the potential to become core industry trends driving structural bull markets [5][6] - It highlights that the Hong Kong stock market is likely to lead the market, benefiting from its role in China's financial external circulation [5][6] - The report maintains a cautious stance on the expansion of new consumption trends, suggesting that significant profit effects in this area may indicate a short-term market correction [5][6]

Group 1 - The new consumption concept stocks in the Hong Kong market showed mixed performance in the afternoon session [1] - Bluetec (00325.HK) surged over 24%, indicating strong investor interest [1] - Mixue Group (02097.HK) rose nearly 7%, reflecting positive market sentiment [1] Group 2 - Gu Ming (01364.HK) increased by over 5.5%, suggesting a stable growth trend [1] - Giant Bio (02367.HK) saw a rise of over 4%, indicating resilience in its stock performance [1] - Lao Pu Gold (06181.HK) declined nearly 3%, showing some weakness in the market [1] Group 3 - Hu Shang Ayi (02589.HK) fell by 1.3%, indicating a slight downturn in its stock [1]