Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is that Zijin Mining has shown significant stock performance with a year-to-date increase of 67.86% and a market capitalization of 6620.47 billion yuan as of September 19 [1] - As of June 30, 2025, Zijin Mining achieved an operating revenue of 1677.11 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 11.50%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 232.92 billion yuan, up 54.41% year-on-year [2] - The company has distributed a total of 534.29 billion yuan in dividends since its A-share listing, with 219.25 billion yuan distributed in the last three years [3] Group 2 - The stock has seen a recent decline of 2.88% over the last five trading days, but has increased by 20.57% over the past 20 days and 25.94% over the last 60 days [1] - The main business revenue composition includes 66.76% from other sources, 41.33% from smelting and trading gold, and 16.26% from copper smelting [1] - As of June 30, 2025, the number of shareholders decreased by 9.27% to 335,700, with an average of 0 circulating shares per shareholder [2]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's interest rate cut cycle has officially begun, presenting new opportunities and challenges for the commodity market [1] Group 1: Impact of Interest Rate Cuts on Commodities - Historically, commodities tend to benefit from interest rate cuts, with an average increase of 3% in the nine months following the first cut [1] - The price movement of commodities typically follows a specific pattern: an initial rise in the first month after the cut, followed by a pullback in the second and third months, and a resurgence in the fourth month [2] - The performance of commodities during rate cut cycles is influenced by various factors, with the macroeconomic backdrop being crucial [1][4] Group 2: Differentiation Between "Healthy" and "Recessionary" Rate Cuts - In "healthy" rate cut cycles, such as those in 1995 and 2024, commodities have shown an average return of 15% over nine months, primarily driven by energy and precious metals [4] - Conversely, in "recessionary" rate cut cycles, like those in 1998, 2001, and 2019, commodities faced an average decline of 16% [4] Group 3: Sector Performance During Rate Cuts - Energy and precious metals are the strongest performing sectors during rate cut cycles, with average increases of 10% and 7% respectively in the nine months following the first cut [6] - Industrial metals lag behind, with an average decline of 4% during the same period [6] - Agricultural products and livestock show no clear performance trends during rate cut cycles [6] Group 4: Future Scenarios for Commodities - Three potential scenarios for the future of commodities have been outlined: 1. "Bronzilocks" scenario: Global economy remains resilient, leading to strong commodity returns [10] 2. Recession scenario (40% probability): High risk of U.S. economic recession, resulting in downward pressure on commodities [10] 3. Re-inflation scenario (45% probability): Risk of persistent inflation, with commodities expected to yield an average monthly return of 1.6% [10]

从资金流向上来看，当日工业金属板块主力资金净流出51.09亿元，游资资金净流入12.84亿元，散户资 金净流入38.25亿元。工业金属板块个股资金流向见下表： 证券之星消息，9月18日工业金属板块较上一交易日下跌3.6%，电工合金领跌。当日上证指数报收于 3831.66，下跌1.15%。深证成指报收于13075.66，下跌1.06%。工业金属板块个股涨跌见下表： | 代码 | 名称 | 收盘价 | 涨跌幅 | 成交量(手) | 成交额(元) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 002501 | 利源股份 | 2.81 | 2.55% | 565.45万 | 16.08亿 | | 002203 | 海亮股份 | 12.36 | 1.23% | 51.85万 | 6.46 Z | | 002988 | 蒙美新材 | 43.76 | 0.53% | 8.70万 | 3.85亿 | | 300328 | 宜安科技 | 19.14 | 0.00% | 99.95万 | 19.34亿 | | 002295 | 精艺股份 | 10.67 | -1.11% | 13.36万 | ...

Core Viewpoint - Zijin Mining's stock price has experienced fluctuations, with a recent decline despite a significant year-to-date increase of 65.50% [2][3]. Financial Performance - For the first half of 2025, Zijin Mining reported a revenue of 167.71 billion yuan, marking an 11.50% year-on-year growth, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 23.29 billion yuan, which is a 54.41% increase compared to the previous year [3]. - The company has distributed a total of 53.43 billion yuan in dividends since its A-share listing, with 21.93 billion yuan distributed over the last three years [4]. Stock Market Activity - As of September 18, Zijin Mining's stock price was 24.56 yuan per share, with a trading volume of 4.34 billion yuan and a turnover rate of 0.85%, resulting in a total market capitalization of 652.75 billion yuan [1]. - The stock has seen a net outflow of 544 million yuan in principal funds, with significant selling pressure observed [1]. Shareholder Information - As of June 30, 2025, the number of shareholders decreased to 335,700, with an average of 0 circulating shares per person [3]. - Major shareholders include Hong Kong Central Clearing Limited, which holds 1.589 billion shares, and several ETFs that have increased their holdings [4].

Market Overview - The three major indices in the A-share market opened lower but rose during the morning session, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 3893.95 points, up 0.45% [1] - The Shenzhen Component Index closed at 13319.70 points, up 0.79%, and the ChiNext Index closed at 3162.90 points, up 0.49% [1] Sector Performance - The top-performing sectors included Automotive Services and Others (up 3.86%), Semiconductors (up 3.63%), Rubber Products (up 2.72%), and Components (up 2.72%) [2] - The sectors with the largest declines were Precious Metals (down 2.31%), Insurance (down 1.45%), Industrial Metals (down 1.45%), and Securities (down 1.44%) [2] Trading Volume and Net Inflow - The Automotive Services sector had a total trading volume of 536.37 million hands and a net inflow of 67.49 billion [2] - The Semiconductor sector recorded a total trading volume of 2599.29 million hands with a net inflow of 175.04 billion [2] - In contrast, the Insurance sector had a total trading volume of 156.42 million hands and a net outflow of 9.32 billion [2]

Company Overview - Luoyang Molybdenum Co., Ltd. is primarily engaged in the mining, selection, deep processing, trading, and research of rare metals such as molybdenum, tungsten, and gold [2] - The company was established on December 22, 1999, and went public on October 9, 2012 [2] - The main business revenue composition includes refined metal product trading (48.56%), concentrate product trading (38.31%), copper (27.14%), cobalt (6.04%), molybdenum (3.12%), phosphorus (2.23%), niobium (1.88%), tungsten (1.17%), and others (0.11%) [2] Stock Performance - The stock price of Luoyang Molybdenum has increased by 94.78% year-to-date, with a recent decline of 4.15% over the last five trading days [2] - As of September 18, the stock was trading at 12.46 CNY per share, with a market capitalization of 266.57 billion CNY [1] - The trading volume on September 18 was 4.07 billion CNY, with a turnover rate of 0.19% [1] Financial Performance - For the first half of 2025, Luoyang Molybdenum reported a revenue of 94.77 billion CNY, a year-on-year decrease of 7.83%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders increased by 60.07% to 8.67 billion CNY [2] - The company has distributed a total of 21.56 billion CNY in dividends since its A-share listing, with 10.58 billion CNY distributed in the last three years [3] Shareholder Structure - As of June 30, 2025, the number of shareholders was 237,500, a decrease of 15.95% from the previous period [2] - Major shareholders include Hong Kong Central Clearing Limited, holding 648 million shares, and Huaxia SSE 50 ETF, holding 138 million shares, both of which have increased their holdings compared to the previous period [3]

Core Insights - In H1 2025, the Shanghai Composite Index increased by 5.57%, while the non-ferrous metals index rose by 17.00%, outperforming the Shanghai Composite by 11.42 percentage points. The steel index increased by 3.09%, underperforming the Shanghai Composite by 2.49 percentage points [2][3] - Commodity prices for precious and industrial metals have been on the rise, while energy metals and steel prices have seen a decline [2][3] - The non-ferrous sector achieved revenue of 1.8197 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.66%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 95.3 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 38.28% [2][3] Industrial Metals - The industrial metals sector benefited from tariff adjustments and expectations of interest rate cuts, leading to a profit growth of 38% in H1 2025. The sector's total revenue reached 1.3586 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 12.08%, with a net profit of 69.74 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 38% [2][3] - In Q2 2025, the industrial metals sector generated revenue of 727.99 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 9.97% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 15.4%, with a net profit of 36.84 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 23.4% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 12% [2][3] Precious Metals - The precious metals sector saw revenue of 188.25 billion yuan in H1 2025, a year-on-year growth of 27.0%, and a net profit of 9.68 billion yuan, a year-on-year growth of 65.6% [3] - In Q2 2025, the sector's revenue was 104.42 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 31.3% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 24.6%, with a net profit of 5.79 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 76.3% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 48.4% [3] Energy Metals - The energy metals sector reported revenue of 81.24 billion yuan in H1 2025, a year-on-year increase of 0.1%, and a net profit of 5.31 billion yuan, marking a return to profitability [3][4] - In Q2 2025, the sector's revenue was 43.88 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.5% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 17.5%, with a net profit of 3.04 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 51.9% [3][4] Minor Metals - The minor metals sector experienced a decline in revenue, achieving 137.7 billion yuan in H1 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 37.6%, with a net profit of 7.64 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 26.1% [4] - In Q2 2025, the sector's revenue was 73.89 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 39.5% but a quarter-on-quarter increase of 16.4%, with a net profit of 3.93 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 40.6% but a quarter-on-quarter increase of 8.0% [4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the non-ferrous and steel industry [6] Core Viewpoints - The market is expected to shift towards low-risk, high-dividend sectors, making the allocation in non-ferrous and steel sectors timely. The operating performance of most sub-sectors in the non-ferrous and steel industry has shown significant improvement in both year-on-year and quarter-on-quarter comparisons [15][16] - Copper prices have surpassed $10,000 per ton, with expectations for profitability and dividend rates to gradually increase for copper mining companies. For instance, Zangge Mining reported a mid-term dividend of 1.569 billion yuan, with a dividend rate significantly raised to 87% [15][16] - Aluminum prices have risen, leading to upward revisions in profitability and dividend expectations. The aluminum price has reached 21,000 yuan per ton, and companies like Tianshan Aluminum have increased their dividend rates to 50% [16] - The rare earth sector is anticipated to enter a new phase of price increases due to the resumption of bidding by downstream magnetic material manufacturers, with companies like Jinkeli Yongci reporting a mid-term dividend rate of 81% [16] - Steel companies are expected to enhance their dividend capabilities as profitability improves and capital expenditures decline. For example, Huazhong Steel has seen an increase in shareholding by Xintai Life Insurance, which plans to continue increasing its stake [16] Summary by Sections Non-Ferrous and Steel Industry - The report highlights the positive outlook for low-risk, high-dividend sub-sectors within the non-ferrous and steel industry, driven by improving operating performance and rising commodity prices [15][16] - The copper market is experiencing tight supply, pushing prices above $10,000 per ton, which is expected to enhance profitability and dividends for mining companies [15][16] - The aluminum sector is benefiting from a favorable supply-demand balance, with prices rising and companies increasing their dividend rates [16] - The rare earth market is poised for growth as bidding resumes in downstream sectors, leading to improved profitability and dividend stability [16] - Steel companies are likely to see enhanced profitability and dividend capabilities due to reduced capital expenditures and improved market conditions [16]

Core Insights - The non-ferrous metals industry outperformed all 31 Shenwan primary industries in the first half of 2025, with a sector index increase of 19.17% and a year-on-year growth in net profit attributable to shareholders of 38.28% [1][12][24]. Market Overview - The overall revenue of the non-ferrous metals industry reached 1.8197 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.66%, while net profit was 95.3 billion yuan, up 38.28% [1][24]. - Industrial metals revenue was 1.3586 trillion yuan, growing by 12.08%, while precious metals revenue was 188.3 billion yuan, increasing by 26.97% [1][28]. - The prices of industrial and precious metals generally rose, with energy metals experiencing a temporary downturn but showing signs of recovery [1][10][11]. Industrial Metals - The industrial metals sector benefited from tariff reductions and interest rate cuts, achieving a profit growth rate of 38% [2][24]. - Key companies such as Zijin Mining reported a revenue of 167.7 billion yuan and a net profit of 23.29 billion yuan, marking a 54.4% increase year-on-year [2]. - Other notable performances include China Aluminum with a revenue of 116.4 billion yuan and a net profit of 7.07 billion yuan, reflecting a 4.88% increase in alumina production [2]. Precious Metals - The precious metals sector saw a cumulative gold price increase of 40% in the first half of 2025, with the sector index rising by 65.4% [2][11]. - Companies like Shandong Gold achieved significant growth, with a revenue of 56.77 billion yuan and a net profit of 2.808 billion yuan, up 103% year-on-year [2]. Energy Metals - The average price of lithium carbonate was 65,200 yuan per ton, down 38.4% year-on-year, but prices rebounded towards the end of the quarter due to supply constraints [3][11]. - Companies such as Tianqi Lithium and Ganfeng Lithium reported a recovery in net profits, with Ganfeng Lithium seeing a 62.3% increase [3]. Small Metals and Rare Earths - The rare earth sector experienced price increases due to global supply constraints and heightened demand for strategic metals, with North Rare Earth's net profit soaring by 1951% [3][28]. - Companies like Shenghe Resources also reported substantial profit growth, with a 650% increase [3]. Company Performance - In the first half of 2025, 25 companies in the non-ferrous metals sector reported a net profit growth rate exceeding 100% [4][31]. - Notable performers included North Rare Earth, Shenghe Resources, and Yunnan Zhiye, all of which demonstrated exceptional profit increases [4][31]. Price Trends - The overall price trends for key non-ferrous metals showed significant fluctuations, with industrial metals generally increasing while energy metals faced declines before rebounding [10][11][12]. - The precious metals sector, particularly gold and silver, saw substantial price increases driven by market demand and geopolitical factors [11][12].

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Increase" rating for the company, indicating a potential price increase of 5% to 15% relative to the CSI 300 index over the next six months [23]. Core Views - The company has shown significant profit growth due to a decrease in raw material prices and an increase in aluminum prices, with a net profit of 707 million yuan in the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 59.55% [6][9]. - The improvement in performance is attributed to enhanced profitability in aluminum deep processing and increased electrolytic aluminum capacity, alongside reduced costs from alumina and electricity [9]. - The company completed a 24% equity acquisition in Zhongfu Aluminum, raising its electrolytic aluminum capacity to 750,000 tons per year, and is advancing its green aluminum development strategy [9]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, the company achieved operating revenue of 10.574 billion yuan, a year-on-year decline of 3.82%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders increased by 59.55% [6]. - The gross profit margin improved to 11.66%, up 1.40 percentage points from the previous year, and the net profit margin rose to 5.93%, an increase of 1.59 percentage points [9]. Cost and Pricing Dynamics - The average alumina price in the first half of 2025 was 3,450.64 yuan per ton, down 1.17% year-on-year, while the electrolytic aluminum price was 20,315.42 yuan per ton, up 2.66% [9]. - The price of thermal coal decreased by 26.81% year-on-year, contributing to cost improvements [9]. Strategic Developments - The company is focusing on green low-carbon transformation, with a new distributed photovoltaic capacity of approximately 21.5 MW added in the first half of 2025, bringing the total to about 77.55 MW [9]. - The proportion of recycled aluminum in deep processing products reached 61%, further reducing the carbon footprint [9]. Shareholder Returns - The company initiated an employee stock ownership plan, with employees purchasing approximately 330 million shares, representing 8.21% of total shares, at an average price of 3.21 yuan per share [9]. - A cash dividend plan was established, aiming to distribute at least 60% of the distributable profits in cash annually from 2025 to 2027, reflecting confidence in future profitability [9]. Earnings Forecast - The company is projected to achieve operating revenues of 24.108 billion yuan, 24.469 billion yuan, and 24.861 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with net profits of 2.126 billion yuan, 2.232 billion yuan, and 2.390 billion yuan [10].