Market Overview - The A-share market experienced fluctuations and adjustments last week, with the margin balance reported at 24,614.50 billion yuan as of November 21, and a decrease in financing balance by 29.52 billion yuan [1][2]. Financing Balance Changes - Among the 31 industries tracked, only 8 saw an increase in financing balance, with the top three being Defense and Military, Media, and Agriculture, Forestry, Animal Husbandry, and Fishery, which had net purchases of 1.006 billion yuan, 492 million yuan, and 274 million yuan respectively [1][3]. - The remaining 23 industries experienced a decrease in financing balance, with Electronics, Electric Power Equipment, and Nonferrous Metals leading in net sales at 10.934 billion yuan, 5.322 billion yuan, and 3.601 billion yuan respectively [1][3]. Individual Stock Performance - Last week, financing clients increased their positions in 65 stocks by over 100 million yuan, with the top ten stocks being Ningde Times, Zhongji Xuchuang, Aerospace Development, Bluefocus, Jianghuai Automobile, BOE Technology Group, RDA Microelectronics, Founder Technology, Zhongjin Gold, and Huadian Technology, with net purchases of 2.105 billion yuan, 582 million yuan, 417 million yuan, 378 million yuan, 336 million yuan, 334 million yuan, 259 million yuan, 256 million yuan, 246 million yuan, and 242 million yuan respectively [4][5]. - The stocks with the highest increase in financing clients' positions generally saw positive market performance, with Aerospace Development rising over 31% [4].

截至2025年11月24日 10:12，中证500质量成长指数上涨0.20%，成分股滨江集团上涨4.64%，中材国际上涨3.06%，三美股份上涨2.61%，海信视像上涨 2.58%，首旅酒店上涨2.48%。500质量成长ETF(560500)上涨0.09%。（以上所列示股票为指数成份股，仅做示意不作为个股推荐。过往持仓情况不代表基金 未来的投资方向，也不代表具体的投资建议，投资方向、基金具体持仓可能发生变化。市场有风险，投资需谨慎。） 据Wind数据显示，流动性方面，截至11月24日 10:12，500质量成长ETF盘中换手0.14%，成交60.89万元。 消息方面，上周，避险情绪主导全球金融市场，全球主要股市悉数下跌，其中科技股波动幅度显著。在这一传导效应下，A股市场同样经历调整，上证指数 失守3900点。对于近期市场的波动，券商研报分析认为，海外"AI泡沫"焦虑、美联储降息预期回落、资金情绪趋于谨慎等因素共振，引发了全球主要市场联 动下挫。在这一背景下，A股市场也难以完全避免冲击。但支撑本轮中国股市上涨行情的基本面因素并未出现变化。 华泰证券发布A股策略研报称，近期AI叙事起争论、流动性有所收紧构成了市场 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Short - term, there is no need to be overly pessimistic about the continuous poor performance of stocks and bonds. The subsequent basic assumption is a fundamental combination of stable earnings, converging macro - liquidity, and declining risk appetite. The stock - bond ratio favors bonds, the equity style favors value, and the recommended allocation combination is long - term bonds plus value - type equity assets. This week, the Shanghai Composite 50 Index (80% position) and the China Securities 1000 Index (20% position) are recommended [2][8]. - In the contraction cycle, the degree to which the stock - bond ratio favors equities is limited, and the probability of value style outperforming is higher. A + H dividend portfolios and A - share portfolios are recommended, mainly concentrated in industries such as banking, telecommunications, petroleum and petrochemicals, and transportation [9][10]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 National Asset Liability Sheet Analysis - **Liability Side** - In October 2025, the liability growth rate of the real sector was 8.6%, down from 8.9% previously, with a larger - than - expected decline. It is expected to decline slightly to around 8.5% in November and continue to decline, returning to a contraction phase. By the end of the year, it is expected to drop to around 8.4% [2][17]. - Last week, the financial sector's capital situation continued to converge marginally, but there were signs of a rebound in the second half of the week. The government's goal of stabilizing the macro - leverage ratio remains unchanged, and China is still in a marginal contraction phase [2][17]. - In terms of fiscal policy, the net increase in government bonds last week was 2378 billion yuan (slightly higher than the planned 2283 billion yuan), and the planned net increase next week is 2480 billion yuan. The government liability growth rate at the end of October 2025 was 13.9%, down from 14.5% previously, and is expected to drop to around 13.0% in November and remain on a downward trend [3][18]. - In terms of monetary policy, the weekly average trading volume of funds decreased, the price increased, and the term spread slightly increased. The yield of one - year treasury bonds fluctuated narrowly, closing at 1.40% at the weekend. It is estimated that the lower limit of the one - year treasury bond yield is about 1.3%, with a central value around 1.4%. The term spread between ten - year and one - year treasury bonds slightly increased to 42 basis points. The future fluctuation ranges of ten - year and thirty - year treasury bond yields are expected to be around 1.6% - 1.9% and 1.8% - 2.3% respectively [3][18]. - **Asset Side** - In October, the physical quantity data continued to weaken compared to September. The Two Sessions set the target for the annual real economic growth rate in 2025 at around 5%, and the nominal economic growth rate target at around 4.9%. It remains to be seen whether a nominal economic growth rate of around 5% will become the central target for China's nominal economic growth in the next 1 - 2 years [4][19]. 3.2 Stock - Bond Cost - effectiveness and Stock - Bond Style - Last week, the capital situation continued to converge, and both stocks and bonds underperformed for two consecutive weeks, exceeding expectations. The stock market was bearish, and the bond market was flat. The equity style continued to favor value. The stock - bond ratio favored bonds. The yield of ten - year treasury bonds remained stable at 1.82%, the yield of one - year treasury bonds decreased by 1 basis point to 1.40%, and the term spread slightly increased to 42 basis points. The yield of thirty - year treasury bonds increased by 1 basis point to 2.16%. The broad - based rotation strategy outperformed the CSI 300 Index by 1.46 pct last week [6][21]. - Since 2016, China has entered a marginal contraction phase of the national asset - liability sheet. The stock - bond ratio favors bonds. The bond allocation strategy is duration plus credit spread, and the stock allocation strategy is dividends plus growth [20]. - As of now, there have been two expansions of the real - sector balance sheet this year. The external environment's honeymoon period for China is over, and international funds will compare China and the US on a more equal footing. China's advantage lies in the real economy [7][22]. 3.3 Industry Recommendation - **Industry Performance Review** - This week, the A - share market declined with shrinking volume. The Shanghai Composite Index fell 3.9%, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 5.1%, and the ChiNext Index fell 6.2%. Among the Shenwan primary industries, banking, media, food and beverage, national defense and military industry, and household appliances had the smallest declines, while power equipment, comprehensive, basic chemicals, commercial retail, and steel had the largest declines [29]. - **Industry Crowding and Trading Volume** - As of November 21, the top five crowded industries were electronics, power equipment, computer, basic chemicals, and machinery and equipment, while the bottom five were beauty care, comprehensive, steel, coal, and social services. The top five industries with increased crowding this week were computer, media, national defense and military industry, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery, and communication, while the top five with decreased crowding were power equipment, pharmaceutical biology, basic chemicals, non - ferrous metals, and commercial retail [31]. - This week, the average daily trading volume of the entire A - share market was 1.87 trillion yuan, down from 2.04 trillion yuan last week. The industries with the highest year - on - year growth in trading volume were national defense and military industry, computer, media, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery, and real estate, while the industries with the smallest growth were power equipment, food and beverage, household appliances, environmental protection, and basic chemicals [33]. - **Industry Valuation and Earnings** - This week, among the Shenwan primary industries, banking, food and beverage, media, national defense and military industry, and household appliances had the smallest declines in PE(TTM), while power equipment, comprehensive, basic chemicals, commercial retail, and steel had the largest declines. Industries with relatively high 2024 full - year earnings forecasts and relatively low current valuations compared to history include banking, insurance, petroleum and petrochemicals, public utilities, transportation, pharmaceutical biology, auto parts, beauty care, new energy, and consumer electronics [36][37]. - **Industry Prosperity** - Externally, there was a marginal recovery. In October, the global manufacturing PMI rose from 50.7 to 50.8, and the PMIs of major economies showed mixed trends. The CCFI index rose 2.6% week - on - week in the latest week, and port cargo throughput declined. South Korea's export growth rate decreased to 3.6% in October and rose to 8.2% in the first 20 days of November. Vietnam's export growth rate slightly decreased from 25.3% in September to 18.2% in October [41]. - Domestically, second - hand housing prices fell in the latest week, and quantity indicators showed mixed trends. The number of trucks passing through expressways increased. The capacity utilization rate of ten industries, which had been rising from May to August and falling from September to October, slightly increased in November but remained at a historically low level. Automobile trading volume was at a relatively high level compared to the same period in history, new - home trading volume remained at a historically low level, and second - hand housing trading volume declined seasonally [41]. - **Public Fund Market Review** - In the third week of November (November 17 - 21), most active public equity funds outperformed the CSI 300. As of November 21, the net asset value of active public equity funds was 3.7 trillion yuan, slightly up from 3.66 trillion yuan in Q4 2024 [59]. - **Industry Recommendation** - In the contraction cycle, the stock - bond ratio favors equities to a limited extent, and the value style is more likely to outperform. Dividend - type stocks should generally have three characteristics: no balance - sheet expansion, good earnings, and survival. The recommended A + H dividend portfolio includes 13 A + H stocks, and the A - share portfolio includes 20 A - share stocks, mainly concentrated in industries such as banking, telecommunications, petroleum and petrochemicals, and transportation [65].

Group 1 - The macroeconomic outlook for 2026 emphasizes a shift towards "革故鼎新" (reform and innovation), indicating a notable recovery in nominal economic growth and a rebalancing of the economy towards domestic demand [2][6][8] - The banking sector is expected to see a stabilization in performance with a focus on the differences in asset-liability structures, suggesting a strategy of selecting low-risk quality stocks [3][20][21] - The AI industry is highlighted as a significant macroeconomic influencer, with discussions around its potential bubble and the implications of its financialization [3][13][15] Group 2 - The computer industry report discusses the full-stack AI capability chain established by Alibaba and Google, focusing on their respective strategies in chip development, cloud services, and application integration [4][24][25] - Alibaba's strategy includes a shift towards consumer markets while maintaining a strong enterprise focus, leveraging its cloud infrastructure and self-developed chips [24][26][27] - Google's advancements in AI are driven by its proprietary TPU chips and the Gemini model, which enhance its competitive edge in the AI application space [25][26][27] Group 3 - The banking sector's performance is projected to stabilize with a focus on dividend expansion and the identification of quality banks that align with policy directions [20][21][22] - The report anticipates a steady growth in bank earnings, with a particular emphasis on the recovery of net interest margins and non-interest income [22][23] - The overall banking landscape is expected to benefit from a supportive macroeconomic environment, with government investments and policies aimed at sustaining economic growth [20][21] Group 4 - The report on the electronic sector highlights the growth of companies like Longxin Technology and Zhongrong Electric, focusing on their advancements in AI-related products and market expansion [38][42] - The performance of these companies is driven by increasing demand in data centers and automotive electronics, with significant revenue growth reported [35][42] - Investment recommendations suggest a positive outlook for these companies based on their innovative product offerings and market positioning [40][44]

两融余额连续缩水，最新市场两融余额24614.50亿元，连续3个交易日减少，创6个月以来最长连降纪 录，其间杠杆资金大比例增减仓个股引关注。 证券时报·数据宝统计显示，截至11月21日，沪深北两融余额为24614.50亿元，较上一交易日减少302.53 亿元，其中融资余额24451.78亿元，较上一日减少292.08亿元。分市场来看，沪市两融余额为12506.07 亿元，较上一日减少129.49亿元，深市两融余额12032.24亿元，较上一日减少171.56亿元，北交所两融 余额76.19亿元，较上一日减少1.48亿元。值得注意的是，这已经是两融余额连续3个交易日持续缩水， 其间两融余额合计减少412.61亿元。具体交易日来看，11月21日两融余额减少302.53亿元，单日缩水金 额创10月9日以来新高。 分行业看，两融余额连续缩水期间，申万所属的31个行业中，融资余额减少的共有27个行业，电子行业 融资余额减少最多，其间融资余额减少103.58亿元，融资余额减少较多的行业还有电力设备、有色金属 等；融资余额增加的行业有房地产、美容护理等。以幅度进行统计，电力设备行业融资余额降幅最高， 达3.00%，其次是电 ...

2021年至2024年，全市地区生产总值年均增长4.8%；2024年，人均生产总值超8万元，居全省第4位； 2025年前三季度，全市地区生产总值同比增长5.6%；"十四五"以来，规上工业增加值年均增长7%，社 会消费品零售总额年均增长5.8%，进出口总值年均增长5.7%……主要经济指标稳中有进，崤函大地涌 动着一股争先进位的蓬勃气象。 ——创新引领，锻造产业升级"强引擎" 三门峡城市全景。 杜杰 摄 "十四五"以来，三门峡市坚持把创新摆在发展全局的核心位置，研发投入强度从1.81%逐年上升至 2.99%，连续五年保持全省"第一梯队"。创新成为三门峡市引领发展的第一动力，破解"资源路径依 赖"，奋力推动资源型城市向创新型城市转变。 高端平台聚势能。中原关键金属实验室等高能级创新平台高效运行，隧道工程灾变防控与智能建养全国 重点实验室、林木资源高效生产全国重点实验室科研实践基地等创新平台在三门峡市落子布局，三门峡 矿物新材料产研一体化基地项目加快推进。先后建成中原学者工作站11个，引进高层次人才（团队） 251个，成功举办两届关键金属高层学术论坛。目前，全市各类创新平台总数达835个，基本建成覆盖主 导产业集群的 ...

廖市无双：上证破趋势，大盘何去何从？20251123 摘要 上证指数跌破 4 月 7 日以来的上升趋势线，确认五浪结构破位及日线 MACD 底背离，预示将进入 ABC 调整结构，需关注调整结构发展及各 指数表现。当前指数在 3,700-3,800 点区域具备较强支撑，包括 3,732 点、3,774 点和 3,702 点等关键点位。 创业板指数自 10 月 17 日以来创新高后随上证指数调整，形成 A 浪下跌。 科创 50 指数呈现 ABC 结构，C 段加速下跌。创业板风险相对较高，需 谨慎对待，而恒生科技和科创 50 指数调整较为充分，无需进一步杀跌。 本周无行业板块上涨，前期强势板块如电芯、基础化工、钢铁、医药、 有色等显著回调，锂矿链条跌幅接近 10%。银行和食品饮料等防御性板 块相对抗跌，银行因前期回调具备防御属性，食品饮料因涨幅小且风险 释放表现稳健。 美联储降息预期减弱导致全球流动性收紧，比特币价格大幅下跌，引发 以其为抵押的经营经理面临流动性紧张，负面影响传导至股票市场。英 伟达财报超预期但应收账款和存货增加引发质疑，可能影响国内科技股。 Q&A 上证指数和上证 50 的近期走势如何，未来可能会 ...

截至2025年11月21日收盘，港股科技ETF天弘(159128)换手25.61%，成交1.74亿元，市场交投活跃。跟踪的 国证港股通科技指数(987008)下跌2.74%。成分股方面，小米集团-W(01810)收涨超1%，京东健康(06618)领 跌超8%，华虹半导体(01347)、金斯瑞生物科技(01548)、中芯国际(00981)等个股跟跌。 截至11月21日，港股科技ETF天弘(159128)近1周规模增长3241.02万元，实现显著增长。份额方面，港股科 技ETF天弘(159128)最新份额达7.40亿份，创成立以来新高。 从资金净流入方面来看，港股科技ETF天弘(159128)近6天获得连续资金净流入，合计"吸金"1.15亿元。 【产品亮点】 港股科技ETF天弘(159128)跟踪的国证港股通科技指数聚焦30家最具代表性的科技龙头，涵盖互联网、电 子、通信、生物科技、智能汽车等高成长赛道，兼具高研发投入、高营收增长、高流动性等特征。 从估值层面来看，截至11月21日，港股科技ETF天弘(159128)跟踪的国证港股通科技指数最新市盈率（PE- TTM）仅23.60倍，处于近5年18.78%的分位， ...

Group 1 - The article discusses the potential AI bubble and the implications for the Federal Reserve's interest rate policies, highlighting the uncertainty surrounding rate cuts [2] - It examines the evolution of the real estate market, particularly the direct supply of housing by banks, and its impact on the sector [2] - The article also reflects on the implications of large banks merging with smaller banks, providing insights into the banking sector's future [2] Group 2 - The macroeconomic outlook suggests a stable global economy with a continued cycle of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, emphasizing the shift towards "big fiscal" policies in major economies [5] - It indicates that while China's economy faces short-term pressures, the long-term outlook remains positive, with expectations of a slow bull market in Chinese stocks and a cautious approach to the bond market [5] - The article predicts a long-term upward trend in commodity prices, particularly in the context of a weakening US dollar [5] Group 3 - The discussion on precious metals highlights the fluctuating expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts and the potential turning point for cyclical demand in gold and silver [7] - It also addresses the structural opportunities in the precious metals market arising from the macroeconomic reordering [7] Group 4 - The focus on AI and large models reveals investment opportunities within the internet and data center industries, emphasizing the growth potential in these sectors [9] - The article identifies five key questions for investors regarding the development trends in AI [9] Group 5 - The report on the technology sector indicates that the AI industry revolution is driving high growth in demand for computing power and hardware, alongside accelerating commercialization in application sectors [11] - It highlights critical growth directions such as 6G, quantum technology, and domestic semiconductor production [11]

A-shares - Nobikang Artificial Intelligence Technology (Chengdu) Co., Ltd. has submitted its third listing application to the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, with CICC as the sole sponsor [2] - As of November 17, over 10,000 new private equity securities investment funds have been registered this year, with stock strategies being the dominant force in the issuance market [2][3] - In November, 509 overseas institutions conducted research on 109 listed companies, with a focus on the electronics and machinery equipment sectors [2] Financial Products - As of November 20, 19 insurance companies have issued capital replenishment bonds or perpetual bonds this year, totaling over 70 billion yuan, with nearly 70% being perpetual bonds [4] - The latest LPR remains unchanged at 3.0% for 1-year and 3.5% for 5-year terms, maintaining stability for six consecutive months [4] - The Shanghai and Shenzhen Stock Exchanges have released new guidelines to promote high-quality development of index investment [4] Fund Market - As of November 17, a total of 1,378 public funds have been issued this year, surpassing last year's total of 1,143, marking the highest issuance in three years [5] - The average subscription period for new funds has decreased from 22.63 days last year to 16.31 days this year, indicating increased market activity [5] Economic Indicators - In October, China's retail sales grew by 2.8%, with significant increases in the sales of upgraded consumer goods such as gold and jewelry, which rose by 37.6% [6][7] - From January to October, the national general public budget revenue reached 18.65 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.8%, while expenditure was 22.58 trillion yuan, up 2% [8]