Core Viewpoint - The A-share market is experiencing a cooling trend in leveraged funds, with the margin balance in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets falling below 2.7 trillion yuan, reflecting a shift in investor sentiment from "exuberance" to "rationality" due to multiple factors including high valuation adjustments, regulatory policy guidance, and pre-holiday risk aversion [1][4]. Group 1: Margin Balance Data - As of February 5, the margin balance in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets was 26,808.60 billion yuan, a decrease of 120.12 billion yuan from the previous trading day, accounting for 2.62% of the A-share circulating market value [2][4]. - The margin balance has declined for six consecutive trading days since January 29, with a total reduction of 617.83 billion yuan [4]. Group 2: Factors Driving the Cooling of Leverage - The recent cooling of leveraged funds is primarily influenced by regulatory policies aimed at stabilizing expectations and heightened risk aversion ahead of the Spring Festival [4][5]. - A key regulatory change on January 14 raised the financing margin ratio from 80% to 100%, increasing the cost of opening positions and suppressing new financing demand, particularly affecting small investors' willingness to engage in high-volatility tech stocks [4][5]. Group 3: Market Sentiment and Fund Flow - The market is currently in a "trading vacuum" period before the holiday, with overall sentiment shifting from "exuberance" to "rationality," as evidenced by a decline in both the margin balance as a percentage of circulating market value and average daily trading volume [5]. - There is a noticeable shift in fund flow, with significant withdrawals from the technology sector and a rotation towards defensive assets such as coal and power, indicating a trend of "selling tech and buying coal" [7]. Group 4: ETF Market and Future Outlook - The ETF margin balance has also decreased, with a total of 1,216.06 billion yuan as of February 5, reflecting a reduction in leveraged exposure to high-volatility assets [8]. - Looking ahead, the activity level of leveraged funds will depend on three key signals: the return of northbound capital and ETF financing post-holiday, clarity in policy expectations, and the liquidity conditions in the interbank market [9].

以下文章来源于创业板观察 ，作者梓隆 创业板观察 . 创业板观察致力于发布深交所创业板的市场发展、政策变化、监管导向、上市企业动态等的及时信息， 提供有价值的市场资讯。 随着春节假期临近，A股行情即将迈入最后一周，投资者纷纷聚焦今年能否继续迎来"红包行 情"。 从历史数据上看，上证指数近10年节前5个交易日上涨比例达7成，平均涨幅近0.2%。 其中，在2021年、2024年、2023年节前，上证指数涨势较优，而在2022年、2020年、 2018年节前则表现不佳。 注：上证指数近10年（2016年至2025年）春节前5个交易日涨跌幅情况 双创指数表现较优，55%板块节前获收涨 市场主要指数方面，在近10年节前5个交易日期间，科创50、创业板指表现较优，平均涨幅分 别达2.4%、2.2%，同时以中证500、沪深300为代表的中盘股、大盘股指数表现优于以中证 2000、国证2000为代表的小微盘股。以上涨比例统计（不足10年以实际年份统计），创业板 指、深证成指、红利指数、科创50、北证50指数该比例在六成以上。 注：市场主要指数近10年（2016年至2025年）节前5日上涨比例及平均涨跌幅 行业层面来看，31个 ...

Core Insights - The A-share market is experiencing a complex situation as it approaches the Spring Festival holiday, with previous hot sectors like optical modules, non-ferrous metals, and AI tech stocks in the US showing varying degrees of correction [1] - The Guangfa Fund advisory team suggests that after a significant rise in January, the market is becoming more rational, with a focus on "going overseas + technology" themes, emphasizing cyclical industries supported by global demand and sectors intersecting AI and overseas markets [1][3] Industry Performance - As of February 1, approximately 55% of listed companies in A-shares have disclosed their earnings forecasts for 2025, indicating an overall recovery in profitability, although significant industry divergence is noted, with non-bank financials and non-ferrous metals performing particularly well [1] - The median earnings growth forecast for all A-shares in 2025 is 18%, with a quarterly median growth forecast of 11% for Q4 2025. However, historical trends suggest that this data may decline after all companies complete their earnings disclosures [1] Positive Earnings Forecasts - The proportion of positive earnings forecasts varies significantly across industries, with non-bank financials at 100%, non-ferrous metals at 65%, and automotive and beauty care sectors exceeding 50%. In contrast, industries like coal, real estate, and light manufacturing have positive forecast ratios below 20%, indicating lower industry sentiment [2] - High earnings growth industries for 2025 are primarily in three areas: those directly boosted by market or price factors (e.g., non-bank financials and non-ferrous metals), those benefiting from AI-driven demand (e.g., machinery, electronics, computing, and communications), and those supported by overseas market demand (e.g., machinery, media, and batteries) [2] Investment Strategy - The Guangfa Fund advisory team recommends that investors maintain a balanced allocation strategy to mitigate risks and smooth portfolio volatility, especially in a market characterized by significant industry divergence [3] - The company emphasizes its comprehensive asset management capabilities, offering a full range of products to meet diverse investment needs across different economic cycles and market environments, suggesting that investors consider fund advisory combinations for a more manageable investment experience [3]

证 券 研 究 报 告 泡泡玛特"星星人"新款热销，关注潮 玩消费与 AI+消费 ——新消费行业周报（20260126-0201） 行业数据： 社会消费品零售总额首破 50 万亿元，规模居全球零售市场前列。结 构持续优化，新的消费热点不断涌现，26 年服务消费与乡村市场有望 是核心引擎。国家统计局公布数据，2025 年社会消费品零售总额 50.12 万亿元，比上年增长 3.7%（比 2024 年加快 0.2 个百分点）。其 中，除汽车以外的消费品零售额 45.14 万亿元，增长 4.4%。全国网上 零售额 15.97 万亿元，比上年增长 8.6%；服务零售额比上年增长 5.5%；最终消费支出对经济增长的贡献率为 52.0%（比上年的贡献率 提高了 5 个百分点）。12 月份，社会消费品零售总额 4.51 万亿元，同 比增长 0.9%。其中，除汽车以外的消费品零售额 3.97 万亿元，增长 1.7%。 ——2026 年 01 月 08 日 服务消费活力释放。从居民消费看，2025 年服务性消费支出占居民人 均消费支出的比重是 46.1%。各地也在持续创新消费场景，优化消费 环境，文化、旅游、娱乐、赛事等细分领域 ...

Group 1 - A total of 1,714 companies in the Shenzhen market have pre-disclosed their 2025 operating performance, representing 59.39% of the total companies, with nearly 60% showing improved performance [1] - Among the pre-disclosed companies, 987 are expected to see performance improvement, accounting for 57.58%, with 430 companies achieving continuous profitability and year-on-year growth [1] - The top 100 companies by market capitalization in Shenzhen are expected to achieve a combined net profit of 2,056.27 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 66.51% [1] Group 2 - Of the 629 newly listed companies under the registration system in Shenzhen, 307 have pre-disclosed their 2025 operating performance, with a total expected net profit of 196.04 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 77.11% [2] - 183 of these companies are expected to be profitable, with a pre-profit ratio of 59.61%, which is 7 percentage points higher than the overall Shenzhen market [2] - More than 60% of companies in the real economy, excluding finance and real estate, are expected to report positive net profits, with 18 out of 28 industries showing profitability [2] Group 3 - In the context of industrial transformation and upgrading, companies in the machinery and basic chemical sectors are expected to achieve net profits of 84.85 billion yuan and 123.51 billion yuan, respectively, with year-on-year growth of 200.07% and 284.56% [3] - The computer, communication, and electronics sectors are projected to achieve a combined net profit of 760.33 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 155.32% [3] - The consumer electronics sector is expected to report a net profit of 193.85 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 36.11% [3]

Group 1 - The overall market fund value increased to 36.63 trillion yuan by December 31, 2025, with bond funds accounting for 30.31% of the total, marking a 0.31 percentage point increase from the end of Q3 2025 [5][9] - The performance of public funds varied, with bond funds showing a positive return of 0.5%, while QDII funds experienced a significant decline of -2.98% [20][23] - By the end of 2025, stock and mixed funds accounted for 24.84% of total fund value, with stock investment ratios remaining high, as 33.76% of funds had over 90% in stock investments [41][42] Group 2 - The top 20 heavy stocks were primarily in the electronics, non-bank financial, and power equipment sectors, with Ningde Times, Zhongji Xuchuang, and Xinyi Sheng being the top three by market value [28][29] - The performance of heavy stocks was mixed, with Zhongji Xuchuang leading with a 46.31% increase, while Ningde Times saw a decline of -7.32% [30][32] - The distribution of heavy stocks showed that electronics remained the largest sector, accounting for 8.21% of the total stock investment value [33] Group 3 - The top 20 stocks with increased holdings were concentrated in electronics, non-bank financial, and power equipment sectors, with Zhongji Xuchuang and China Ping An seeing significant increases in their market value [34][37] - The top gainers among the increased holdings included China Satellite with a remarkable 170.90% increase, followed by Maiwei Shares at 104.67% [38][39] - The communication sector had the highest increase in fund allocations, with a 1.74% increase in Q4 2025 [40] Group 4 - The report suggests focusing on technology innovation sectors that are expected to see improvements in industry conditions and performance, particularly in non-bank financial sectors with strong leading brokers [41][42]

| 序号 | 标准名称 | 标准编号 | | --- | --- | --- | | 1 | 温室气体产品碳足迹量化方法与要求 轮胎 | T/CPCIF 0391-2024 | | 2 | 温室气体 产品碳足迹量化方法与要求 合成氢 | T/CPCIF 0468-2025 | | 3 | 温室气体产品碳定迹量化方法与要求 氢 | T/CPCIF 0466-2025 | | 4 | 温室气体 产品碳足迹量化方法与要求 甲醇 | T/CPCIF 0467-2025 | | ર | 温室气体产品恢定沙量化方法与要求 己二酸己二胺盐 | T/CSPCI 70021-2025 | | 6 | 温室气体 产品碳足迹量化方法与要求 金属线材制品 | T/CISA 583-2025 | | 7 | 温室气体 产品碳足迹量化方法与要求 机制品 | T/CISA 582-2025 | | 8 | 温室气体 产品碳足迹量化方法与要求 原生镁锭 | T/CNIA 0295-2025 | | 9 | 温室气体 产品碳足迹量化方法与要求 硅多晶 | T/CNIA 0291-2024 | | 10 | 温室气体 产品碳足迹量化方法与要求 ...

Market Overview - In January 2026, global stock markets experienced a broad rally, with emerging markets outperforming developed markets. Chinese stocks performed moderately, while US stocks lagged behind [5][11] - The cyclical sector led the market, driven by rising commodity prices, particularly in energy and materials, while the financial sector underperformed [5][11] Core Themes - February marks a traditional bullish window for A-shares, with historical data showing a 76% probability of gains and an average increase of 3.4% [17] - Regulatory measures are limiting speculative trading, directing funds towards sectors with solid fundamentals. The focus is on core sectors with improving profitability, particularly in cyclical and technology manufacturing [21][22] A-share Market and Structural Analysis - The A-share market is expected to transition into a "slow bull" market, driven by profit improvement rather than valuation expansion. The liquidity environment remains relatively loose, supporting market growth [28][31] - The basic fundamentals are expected to strengthen, with corporate profits likely to improve due to policies aimed at reducing competition and stabilizing prices [28][30] Sector Focus - The main sector themes are price increases and technology manufacturing, with a focus on performance realization rather than speculative trends. The technology manufacturing sector is benefiting from the integration of AI and overseas expansion [36][38] - The cyclical sector, particularly non-ferrous metals and basic chemicals, is expected to see significant profit recovery due to rising commodity prices [38] Growth and Value Dynamics - The growth-oriented ChiNext index is projected to outperform the value-oriented CSI 300 index, although the margin of outperformance is narrowing [47] - The proportion of companies with positive earnings forecasts is slightly improving, indicating a potential recovery in corporate profitability [22] Market Style and Trends - Small-cap stocks are expected to perform strongly in February, benefiting from a favorable environment due to limited IPOs and a focus on earnings reports [57][63] - The Hong Kong market is anticipated to continue its slow bull trend, supported by liquidity and the ongoing AI industry wave [64][65] US Market Outlook - The US market is consolidating its fundamentals, preparing for the next upward movement, with corporate earnings showing strong growth across various sectors [70] - A balanced investment strategy is recommended, maintaining core positions in technology while diversifying into cyclical sectors to capture potential excess returns [70]

Group 1 - The core driver of recent fluctuations in precious metals is the large-scale gold purchases by central banks, which have shifted from being market observers to "super players" influencing supply and demand dynamics [3][4] - In 2022, global central banks purchased a record 1,136 tons of gold, followed by 1,081 tons in 2023, marking two consecutive years of historical highs [3] - The recent price drop in precious metals is largely a market reaction to expectations of reduced central bank gold purchases, leading to a technical sell-off [3][4] Group 2 - Traditional factors such as Federal Reserve policies and dollar strength have been fully absorbed by the market, and their influence on gold prices is now limited [4] - The extreme volatility in precious metals prices cannot be explained by conventional economic analysis, as central bank gold purchases have become a new variable that disrupts historical norms [4][5] Group 3 - Silver, with over 60% of its demand coming from industrial applications, is particularly affected by price volatility, which poses a significant threat to the real economy [6][7] - The demand for silver in the electric vehicle sector has surged from under 1,000 tons in 2020 to over 3,500 tons in 2023, driven by increasing penetration rates [6] - The solar photovoltaic industry has also seen a dramatic increase in silver demand, with usage rising from 3,672 tons in 2022 to 6,017 tons in 2023, a nearly 64% increase [7] Group 4 - The extreme fluctuations in silver prices can severely impact production costs for industrial companies, particularly in the electric vehicle and solar sectors, where rising costs can erode profit margins [6][8] - The current economic recovery is fragile, and the volatility in precious metals prices acts as a barrier to growth, affecting production and consumer confidence [8][10] Group 5 - To mitigate the adverse effects of precious metal price volatility on the real economy, governments and central banks must take action to stabilize prices through coordinated communication and macroeconomic policies [9] - Companies should innovate to reduce reliance on silver, employing new technologies to offset rising raw material costs [9][10] - A consensus on the importance of stabilizing the precious metals market is crucial for the healthy development of the real economy, as speculative financial behaviors should not undermine industrial production and economic recovery [9][10]

========= - Model Name: 250-Day New High Distance; Model Construction Idea: The model aims to track the market trend by monitoring stocks that hit new highs, based on the effectiveness of momentum and trend-following strategies[11]; Model Construction Process: The 250-day new high distance is calculated as follows: $ 250 \text{ Day New High Distance} = 1 - \frac{Closet}{ts\_max(Close, 250)} $ where Closet is the latest closing price, and ts_max(Close, 250) is the maximum closing price over the past 250 trading days[11]; Model Evaluation: The model is effective in identifying market trends and hotspots[11] - Factor Name: Stable New High Stocks; Factor Construction Idea: The factor focuses on stocks that have hit new highs and exhibit stable price paths, leveraging the "boiling frog" effect and smooth price paths for stronger momentum effects[25]; Factor Construction Process: Stocks are selected based on analyst attention, relative strength, price path stability, and new high continuity. Specific conditions include: - Analyst attention: At least 5 buy or hold ratings in the past 3 months - Relative strength: Top 20% in market performance over the past 250 days - Price stability: Evaluated using the sum of absolute daily returns over the past 120 days and the ratio of price path length to displacement - New high continuity: Average 250-day new high distance over the past 120 days - Trend continuity: Average 250-day new high distance over the past 5 days[27] Model Backtest Results: - 250-Day New High Distance Model, 250-Day New High Distance for major indices as of February 6, 2026: Shanghai Composite Index 2.39%, Shenzhen Component Index 3.69%, CSI 300 Index 3.07%, CSI 500 Index 5.29%, CSI 1000 Index 4.95%, CSI 2000 Index 3.67%, ChiNext Index 4.48%, STAR 50 Index 8.58%[12][13][15] Factor Backtest Results: - Stable New High Stocks Factor, Number of stocks hitting new highs in the past 20 trading days: 1641; Highest number of new high stocks by industry: Machinery 238, Electronics 196, Basic Chemicals 176; Highest proportion of new high stocks by industry: Nonferrous Metals 69.92%, Defense & Military 63.11%, Petroleum & Petrochemicals 60.78%[19][20] - Stable New High Stocks Factor, Number of stable new high stocks selected this week: 50; Highest number of stable new high stocks by sector: Manufacturing 18, Technology 16[28] =========