Core Viewpoint - A significant "technical storm" driven by index rules is anticipated, primarily affecting gold and silver due to an upcoming rebalancing of the Bloomberg Commodity Index (BCOM) in January 2026, which is expected to exert substantial selling pressure on these precious metals [1][2]. Group 1: Technical Selling Pressure - The core driver of the anticipated selling pressure is the mean reversion effect, as gold and silver have outperformed other commodities over the past three years, leading to an inflated weight in the BCOM index [2]. - The forced selling operations are projected to occur between January 8 and 14, 2026, coinciding with the BCOM index roll period, potentially resulting in concentrated capital outflows from the market [2]. Group 2: Seasonal Factors vs. Technical Selling - January will present a battleground of bullish and bearish factors for gold investors, with historical data indicating an average price increase of 4.6% during the last ten trading days of the year and the first twenty trading days of the new year, with an 80% probability of price increases [3]. - However, the significant technical selling pressure from the index rebalancing may counteract this seasonal bullish trend, particularly with silver facing greater selling pressure than in previous years [3]. Group 3: Broader Commodity Market Impacts - The rebalancing will not only impact precious metals but will also create complex long and short dynamics across other commodities, as different indices will adjust their weights differently [4]. - The oil market outlook is cautious, with expectations of a growing oversupply in 2026 and 2027, which may exert downward pressure on oil prices [4]. Group 4: Specific Commodity Predictions - Silver is expected to face the heaviest selling pressure, with the anticipated sell-off amounting to approximately 9% of its total open interest in the futures market [5]. - Gold's projected selling pressure is estimated at about 3% of its total open interest, which, despite being lower than silver's, still represents a significant absolute value due to gold's large market size [5]. - Cocoa is predicted to be the biggest winner from the rebalancing, with expected buying pressure equivalent to 22% of its total open interest, significantly surpassing other agricultural products [6]. Group 5: Market Volatility and Key Observations - The rebalancing will also involve the S&P GSCI index, with both indices adjusting during the same period, which could amplify market volatility due to the large asset scale tracking BCOM exceeding $60 billion [8]. - Notably, there are significant directional discrepancies between the two indices, such as cocoa being a large buy in BCOM while facing substantial sell pressure in S&P GSCI, potentially leading to cross-index arbitrage activities and unusual market fluctuations [8].

Core Viewpoint - The 20th Central Committee's Fourth Plenary Session emphasizes the construction of a modern infrastructure system as a crucial task for building a modern industrial system and strengthening the foundation of the real economy [1] Group 1: Importance of Modern Infrastructure - Infrastructure plays a strategic, foundational, and leading role in national development, significantly impacting economic and social progress [2] - The Central Committee has consistently promoted the construction of a modern infrastructure system, recognizing its importance for long-term national development [2] - Infrastructure is essential for industrial development and serves as a critical component of the modern industrial system, reflecting a country's development level and civilization [2] Group 2: New Quality Productivity - The development of a modern infrastructure system is vital for nurturing new quality productivity, as historical innovations have relied on corresponding infrastructure [3] - Modern infrastructure networks facilitate the flow of technological innovation and production factors, enhancing efficiency and reducing costs [3] Group 3: Current Challenges - There are significant gaps in China's infrastructure compared to developed countries, with issues such as insufficient coordination and resilience in key areas [4] Group 4: Characteristics of Modern Infrastructure - The modern infrastructure system must be advanced, systematic, efficient, safe, and green, aligning with the needs of a socialist modernized nation [5] - Emphasis on integrating advanced technology with economic benefits is crucial for modern infrastructure development [5] Group 5: Transition to Systematic Planning - There is a need to shift from single-domain planning to cross-domain systematic planning for infrastructure, addressing imbalances and structural issues [6][7] Group 6: Development Direction - The development of modern infrastructure should focus on intelligence, greenness, and integration, leveraging new technologies for enhanced efficiency and sustainability [8] Group 7: Key Tasks for the 14th Five-Year Plan - The 14th Five-Year Plan aims to consolidate and expand China's infrastructure advantages, focusing on modernizing transportation and energy systems while enhancing safety and resilience [9][12] Group 8: New Energy Infrastructure - The new energy infrastructure will prioritize non-fossil energy sources and develop a new power system, aiming for a significant increase in clean energy supply [12] Group 9: Modern Water Network - The construction of a modern water network is essential for national public service systems, focusing on flood control and efficient water resource management [13] Group 10: Urban Infrastructure Resilience - Enhancing urban infrastructure to support both daily functions and emergency responses is critical for improving resilience and sustainability [14]

本文来自格隆汇专栏：国泰海通策略方奕，作者：方奕、张逸飞、陶前陈、苏徽 摘要 在较长时间的横盘震荡后，中国"转型牛"将重振旗鼓，拾级而上。11月24日上证指数跌至3800点悲观之际，国泰海通策略团队判断"关键位置：进入击球 区，布出先手棋"，近两周以来创业板指已基本收复失地。对于后市，国泰海通比市场共识更乐观：部分投资者以"跨周期"解读政策不积极存在谬误， 2025年超常规是相较以2024年尾部风险暴露。面向2026年，中央经济工作会议明确"巩固拓展经济稳中向好势头"，并要求财政政策"更加积极"与"内需主 导"，首次提出"推动投资止跌回稳"（2025年负增长），并时隔十年重提房地产"去库存"；中财办副主任韩文秀表示将根据形势变化出台实施增量政策， 继续实施"国补"与靠前实施"十五五"重点项目，隐含了实现"十五五"良好开局的开门红重要性。考虑近期经济活动转淡与房地产销售面积下滑加快，政策 预期有望上修。在人民币稳定的前提下，2026年初中国央行降息预期有望提高。在交易层面，保收益降仓位已经步入尾声，岁末年初的再配置与机构资金 回流有望改善市场流动性和活跃成交，跨年攻势已经开始了。 春季行情规律：大盘搭台小盘唱戏 ...

Core Viewpoint - Despite a decline in profits due to adjustments in the real estate market, China Energy Engineering Corporation (China Energy) demonstrates strong growth resilience, with significant increases in international business contracts and revenue [1][4]. Group 1: Financial Performance - In the first three quarters of 2025, China Energy achieved new contract amounts, operating revenue, and total profit of 992.775 billion yuan, 323.544 billion yuan, and 8.507 billion yuan, respectively, with year-on-year growth of 0.40%, 9.62%, and 0.09% [5]. - The international business revenue grew by 21.21%, with total profits increasing by 21.29% [5]. - The company reported a decrease in net profit attributable to shareholders by 12.43% in the same period, reflecting pressures from the real estate market [5][6]. Group 2: Strategic Developments - China Energy has established a wholly-owned subsidiary in the Netherlands to facilitate the development of two solar projects in Uzbekistan, with a total investment of approximately 4.711 billion yuan [2][3]. - The company signed financing agreements for these projects, securing loan amounts of 1.654 billion yuan and 1.684 billion yuan, totaling 3.338 billion yuan [3]. Group 3: Business Segments and Growth - The energy and water sectors, which are core businesses, saw revenue and total profit growth of 16.76% and 18.42%, respectively, contributing over 75% to the company's overall performance [6]. - Strategic emerging industries reported a revenue increase of 16.75%, accounting for 38.81% of total revenue, indicating a shift towards high-end industrial structure [7]. Group 4: Innovation and R&D - China Energy emphasizes technological innovation as a core driver for high-quality development, focusing on new energy systems and key technologies such as energy storage and hydrogen energy [6]. - In the first three quarters, R&D expenses reached 8.892 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 7.72%, with 1,496 patents granted, including 498 invention patents [6].

Core Insights - Hainan Free Trade Port is undergoing significant transformation, with a comprehensive blueprint established by the central government in June 2020, aiming for full island closure operations by December 18, 2025 [1] Group 1: Port Development - Haikou Port is the core of Hainan's modern port cluster, with new facilities improving cargo handling efficiency, reducing wait times from hours to under 15 minutes [2] - The "Four Ports" strategy aims to enhance global competitiveness, with Haikou Port, Yangpu Port, Sanya Port, and Qionghai Port working in synergy [2][3] - Yangpu Port has registered 73 international vessels with a total tonnage of approximately 4.075 million tons, and its container throughput has increased by 204% from 1.02 million TEUs to 3.1 million TEUs [4] Group 2: Air Transport - Hainan's three major airports are expected to exceed 50 million passenger throughput by 2025, with international passenger volume projected to grow by 30% [6] - The "Air-to-Air Transfer" model is gaining traction, with 6,763 tons of cargo transported under this system in the first 11 months of 2025, covering various product categories [7] Group 3: Marine Economy - Hainan aims to establish a "Marine Strong Province" within ten years, focusing on shallow sea aquaculture, deep-sea energy, and oceanic scientific research [8] - The marine production value in Hainan is projected to grow from 160.62 billion to 300 billion yuan by 2025, with an annual growth rate of 13.9% [10] Group 4: Financial Services - The establishment of multi-functional free trade accounts (EF accounts) has expedited cross-border fund transfers, reducing processing time from 1-2 days to 2-3 hours [12] - The implementation of cross-border asset management pilot programs is expected to attract more international investors and financial institutions to Hainan [13]

Group 1: Overview of Hainan Free Trade Port Development - Hainan Free Trade Port is undergoing significant changes, with a comprehensive blueprint established by the central government in June 2020, aiming for full island closure operations by December 18, 2025 [1] - The development is characterized by a focus on maritime economy, with initiatives in port construction, logistics, and transportation [2][3] Group 2: Port Infrastructure and Logistics - Haikou Port serves as the core of Hainan's modern port cluster, with significant improvements in cargo handling efficiency, reducing customs clearance time from hours to under 15 minutes [2] - The "Four Directions, Five Ports" strategy aims to enhance global competitiveness and operational efficiency of Hainan's ports, with specific roles assigned to each port [2][3] - Yangpu Port has registered 73 international vessels, with a total tonnage of approximately 4.075 million tons, and has seen a 204% increase in container throughput from 1.02 million TEUs to 3.1 million TEUs [4] Group 3: Air Transport and Connectivity - Hainan's three major airports are projected to exceed 50 million passenger throughput by 2025, with international passenger traffic expected to grow by 30% [6] - The "Air-to-Air Transfer" model is gaining traction, facilitating the movement of goods through multiple flights, with a significant portion of cargo being transferred internationally [7] Group 4: Marine Economy and Development - Hainan aims to establish a "Marine Strong Province" by enhancing its marine economy through initiatives in shallow sea aquaculture, deep-sea energy, and oceanic scientific research [8] - The marine production value in Hainan is expected to grow from 160.62 billion to 300 billion by 2025, with a compound annual growth rate of 13.9% [10] Group 5: Financial and Investment Opportunities - The establishment of the Hainan Free Trade Port is seen as a major opportunity for companies, particularly in the agriculture and aquaculture sectors, to streamline import and export processes [9] - The EF account system has significantly expedited cross-border fund transfers, with over 600 accounts opened and transactions exceeding 200 billion [12] - New regulations allow foreign investors to access various financial products in Hainan, attracting more financial institutions to the region [13]

Core Viewpoint - The company, Energy and Energy Global (01142), has received a summons from Daily Loyal Limited, alleging a breach of a global settlement agreement established on October 25, 2024, with the case set for September 29, 2025 [1]. Group 1 - The summons is related to an unspecified amount, making it difficult for the company's board to assess the validity of the claims [1]. - The summons does not include a statement of claim, further complicating the company's ability to evaluate the situation [1]. - The company has taken proactive measures by instructing its legal advisors to represent it in the lawsuit and has sought to review court records, although it faced challenges in obtaining relevant court documents [1].

来源：证券市场周刊市场号 文 |牛犇 本周，A股市场持续调整，沪指仅在周五小幅反转。 但从技术面看，市场已频频出现止跌反弹信号，这或意味着下周将有不错的表现，而最新的重要会议同 样释放了积极信号。 机会方面，业内人士指出，可关注重要会议的指引方向，而AI、消费和新能源三大主线已成明牌。 止跌反弹信号出现 近期，A股止跌反弹信号不断出现，如沪指在近三个交易日已出现三根较长的下影线（见附图）。 在K线图中，下影线是从实体向下延伸的细线，与上影线一起长期被看作趋势反转的信号。在阳线中， 它是当日开盘价与最低价之差；在阴线中，它是当日收盘价与最低价之差。一般说，产生下影线的原因 是多方力量大于空方力量而形成的，股票开盘后，股价由于空方的打压一度下落，但由于买盘旺盛，使 股价回升，收于低点之上，产生下影线。这种形态表明，个股或大盘有可能结束弱势行情，将转入强势 行情，且下影线越长，表示反转力量越强。 上影线则与之相反，通常由个股或大盘冲高后回落形成，位于阶段性低位可能预示见底反转，上升途中 多为洗盘结果，而高位出现则提示见顶风险，11月14日的出现长上影线，市场即见顶调整就印证了这个 逻辑。 在技术面之外，A股市场也迎 ...

Group 1: Core Insights - The report highlights a recovery in trading activity for key themes, particularly in commercial aerospace, energy independence, AI applications, and domestic consumption, driven by improved market risk appetite and supportive macroeconomic policies [2][3][5]. Group 2: Commercial Aerospace - The upcoming launch of the Long March 12 reusable rocket and the completion of ground tests for the Tianlong 3 rocket are significant milestones, with China's StarNet completing a network of 127 low-orbit satellites, accelerating its deployment [3][20][25]. - The National Space Administration's action plan for commercial aerospace emphasizes the development of new technologies and products, predicting a tenfold increase in satellite launch demand by 2030 compared to 2024 [3][20][25]. - Investment recommendations include focusing on rocket manufacturing, satellite communication, and new technologies such as reusable rockets [21][25]. Group 3: Energy Independence - The central government emphasizes accelerating the construction of a new energy system and expanding green electricity applications, with a target of 25% non-fossil energy consumption by 2030 [5][22][35]. - The share of clean energy in total installed capacity has reached 60%, with 84% of new capacity in the first ten months of 2025 coming from clean sources [22][35][39]. - Investment directions include smart grids, new energy storage solutions, and nuclear fusion energy [22][35]. Group 4: AI Applications - The report notes significant growth in AI applications, with Alibaba's Qianwen app experiencing a 149.03% increase in monthly active users, leading globally [23][41]. - The government aims for over 70% penetration of new-generation intelligent terminals and systems by 2027, with a target of over 90% by 2030 [23][41]. - Investment opportunities are identified in internet applications across various sectors, including finance, gaming, and government services, as well as in data center power equipment [23][41]. Group 5: Domestic Consumption - The central government is focused on boosting domestic consumption through various initiatives, including enhancing the supply of quality goods and services [5][47]. - New consumption scenarios, such as sports events and winter tourism, are emerging, with the ice and snow sports market projected to exceed 187.5 billion yuan in the 2024-2025 season, reflecting a 25% year-on-year growth [47][48]. - Investment recommendations include sectors benefiting from consumption promotion measures, such as tourism, hotels, and sports equipment [47][48].

Core Viewpoint - Hainan is accelerating the implementation of major infrastructure projects to build a high-quality modern infrastructure system, enhancing connectivity and supporting economic development [6][19]. Infrastructure Development - The completion of the Yangpu Port Expressway by the end of December will significantly improve the efficiency of transportation to and from the Yangpu International Hub Port [6]. - The first 15,000-ton foreign trade vessel docked at the newly expanded container terminal at Yangpu, setting a record for the port [6]. - The third phase expansion of Sanya Phoenix International Airport has been completed, marking the fastest construction speed for a terminal of its scale in recent years [6][19]. Transportation Network - Hainan is enhancing its "land, sea, and air" transportation network, with the completion of various highways and the opening of new international flight routes [8][10]. - The island has achieved "county-level expressway access" and plans to exceed 42,000 kilometers of total road mileage by the end of 2024 [10]. - The G225 national road is undergoing a "five networks integration" project, which will enhance its capacity and efficiency [11]. Digital and Energy Infrastructure - Hainan has established "gigabit cities" in three major cities and is advancing towards "dual ten-gigabit" networks [12]. - The province has achieved 100% 5G network coverage in administrative villages, enhancing digital infrastructure [12]. - The construction of a new power grid system is underway, which will support the energy needs of the Hainan Free Trade Port [22]. Port and Customs Facilities - Hainan's customs facilities have been fully constructed, supporting the high-quality development of its ports and enhancing international trade [16]. - The new inspection area at Haikou New Port and South Port is designed to facilitate efficient customs operations post-closure [15][17]. Economic and Social Impact - The infrastructure projects are expected to drive economic growth and improve the quality of life for residents by enhancing connectivity and access to services [20][21]. - The integration of transportation and tourism infrastructure is anticipated to boost local economies and promote cultural tourism [20][21].