Economic Indicators - The weekly ECI supply index is at 50.18%, down 0.01 percentage points from last week, while the demand index is at 49.93%, up 0.01 percentage points[6] - The monthly ECI supply index for June is 50.18%, down 0.05 percentage points from May, and the demand index remains flat at 49.93%[7] - The ELI index is at -1.06%, down 0.15 percentage points from last week, indicating a slight decrease in liquidity[11] Industrial Production - Major industries' operating rates in June show a seasonal decline, but overall performance is better than the same period last year[7] - The operating rate for PTA is recorded at 83.25%, up 4.62 percentage points from the previous week, and the steel furnace operating rate is at 83.39%, down 0.15 percentage points[15] Exports - June exports are expected to show a slight decline, with key port cargo throughput down 7.95% week-on-week[32] - South Korea's export growth for the first ten days of June is at 5.4%, a significant improvement compared to May[32] Consumption - Weekly average sales of passenger cars are recorded at 42,835 units, a year-on-year increase of 6,825 units, but a month-on-month decrease of 12%[22] - The consumer price index for textiles shows a slight increase, with the Keqiao textile price index at 105.08 points, up 0.02 points from last week[22] Investment - The construction material prices continue to decline, with ordinary Portland cement priced at 302.20 yuan/ton, down 5.90 yuan from the previous week[26] - The land supply area in 100 major cities decreased by 20.84% week-on-week, while the transaction area of commercial housing in 30 major cities increased by 11.41%[26] Inflation - The average wholesale price of pork is at 20.33 yuan/kg, down 0.30 yuan from last week, while Brent crude oil prices increased to $69.45 per barrel, up $4.07[38]

2025年06月15日 证券研究报告 | 美股市场速览 地缘冲突升级，多数行业回撤 行业研究·海外市场专题 美股 中性·维持 证券分析师：王学恒 证券分析师：张熙，CFA 010-88005382 0755-81982090 wangxueh@guosen.com.cn zhangxi4@guosen.com.cn S0980514030002 S0980522040001 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明及其项下所有内容 数据速览 价格走势：地缘冲突升级，多数行业回撤 本周，美股在前4个交易日平稳上涨，但由于中东局势升级在周五出现回撤。标普500跌0.4%，纳斯达克跌0.6%。 7个行业上涨，17个行业下跌。涨幅居前的行业有：汽车与汽车零部件（+9.4%）、能源（+5.8%）、制药生物科技和生命科学（+2.6%）、软件与服务（+1.5%）、 半导体产品与设备（+0.9%）；跌幅居前的行业有：保险（-3.6%）、技术硬件与设备（-3.4%）、商业和专业服务（-2.9%）、综合金融（-2.7%）、消费者服务 （-2.6%）。 资金流向：少数行业和个股带动资金流入 本周，标普500成分股估算资金流为+49.3亿美元， ...

以下文章来源于底线思维 ，作者王世纯 底线思维 . 观察者网时评专栏 本文来自微信公众号： 底线思维 （ID：dixiansiwei） ，作者 ：王世纯，原文标题：《伊朗会是第 二个阿萨德叙利亚吗？》，头图来自：视觉中国（图为当地时间2025年6月13日，伊朗德黑兰，以色 列袭击伊朗首都后，消防员和民众在一处居民区清理爆炸现场） 本周最大的军事新闻，无疑是以色列对伊朗的成功袭击。6月13日，以色列战机空袭了伊朗首都德黑 兰的多个高级军官和核科学家住所、伊朗城市皮兰沙赫尔的战略导弹基地、哈马丹和纳坦兹铀浓缩设 施等数十个目标，取得丰硕战果。目前，以军的空袭仍在继续，开源消息证实伊朗遭受了重大物质损 失和人员损失。多名伊朗高级官员被以色列的空袭消灭。 伊朗中央决策层遭受一轮重创 到笔者完稿之时，伊朗官方媒体已经证实多名高级指挥官和科学家死亡，死亡的高级官员包括但不限 于伊朗伊斯兰革命卫队总司令侯赛因·萨拉米、伊朗伊斯兰革命卫队中央司令官员古拉姆·阿里·拉希 德、伊朗原子能组织前负责人费雷杜恩·阿巴斯和伊朗核科学家穆罕默德·迈赫迪·德黑兰奇等。 在一众身亡的高级官员之中，最大的损失则是总参谋长穆罕默德·巴盖里少将和 ...

本文来自格隆汇专栏：周浩宏观研究 作者：周浩、黄凯鸿 近期美股主要股指稳步回升，延续自4月初市场触底以来的修复趋势。最新美国就业数据好于预期、美国通胀率往长期目标水平回落以及中美经贸会谈有 进展共同推动美股市场稳步上涨。然而，中东局势的变化压制美股市场风险偏好，限制美股进一步上涨。 在行业层面，科技行业表现靠前。中美经贸会议在伦敦举行，并就框架性协议达成共识。在更早的时候，特朗普宣布对外大幅加征关税引发科技股的剧烈 回调，市场认为特朗普关税政策将不可避免提高美国跨国企业成本，因此，中美经贸关系有所进展缓解市场部分担忧，以科技企业为代表的跨国企业盈利 预期改善。 另外能源行业表现强势，与中东局势紧张、国际油价上涨有关。当地时间6月12日，以色列对伊朗发动袭击，以色列和伊朗局势再度升级，国际油价进一 步飙升。近期市场持续关注中东以色列和伊朗的紧张关系，国际油价由4-5月的低位开始持续上涨，能源股跟随上升。投资者相信中东冲突规模一旦扩 大，导致霍尔木兹海峡被封锁，国际油价可能进一步攀升，能源股受益。 另一方面，对美股市场形成拖累的主要是消费行业。市场认为美国消费企业在特朗普阶段性对外加征高关税的政策下承担了大部分成 ...

AI Applications - Companies are increasingly integrating AI into their products and services, with notable examples including Bull Group collaborating with Alibaba Cloud on intelligent solutions, BYD incorporating AI features in vehicles, and Meituan launching an AI programming agent called NoCode [1][4][8] - The trend indicates a shift towards vertical and specialized AI applications, moving away from a one-size-fits-all model to tailored solutions for specific industries [1] - The integration of AI technology is becoming a key lever for companies to enhance product and service experiences, thereby strengthening their competitive edge [1] Strategic Decisions - Tencent Music has signed an agreement to acquire 100% of Ximalaya for $1.26 billion, aiming to enhance its audio ecosystem that includes music, audiobooks, and podcasts [2] - This acquisition is a strategic move to foster content and platform synergy within Tencent Music's operations [2] Major Releases - Gree Electric Appliances has led the release of two international standards for refrigeration compressors, enhancing China's influence in the global high-end industrial chain [3] - The standards aim to improve performance evaluation for both volumetric and centrifugal refrigeration compressors [3] New Products - CATL has announced the mass production of its next-generation large-capacity energy storage cell, the 587Ah cell, which boasts a 10% increase in energy density and a 5% improvement in lifecycle return on investment compared to its predecessor [7] - This development underscores CATL's leadership in the energy storage sector, focusing on reliability, efficiency, and safety [7] Important Collaborations - Lens Technology's subsidiary, Lens New Energy, has signed a strategic cooperation agreement with TCL Zhonghuan to innovate in photovoltaic materials and solutions [11] - This partnership aims to enhance brand competitiveness through resource integration and collaborative product development [11] Personnel Changes - China Energy Construction has appointed Yin Qiang and Xu Lu as vice general managers, both of whom are senior engineers with extensive management experience [9][10] Operational Initiatives - JD Group has become the official strategic partner of "Su Super," engaging in comprehensive cooperation across various sectors including event marketing and live broadcasting [5][6] Technological Innovations - BYD has integrated Alibaba Cloud's Tongyi large model into its vehicle cockpit, enhancing user interaction and experience through AI-driven features [8][12][13] - This collaboration is expected to lead to further exploration of AI applications in smart cockpits as demand grows [8]

美股能源板块盘初涨幅扩大，休斯敦能源涨超130%，Indonesia Energy涨近50%，哈利伯顿(HAL.N)涨超 4%，戴文能源、西方石油涨超3%，康菲石油(COP.N)涨近2%，埃克森美孚石油(XOM.N)涨超1%。 ...

Group 1 - Energy stocks and defense stocks strengthened, while airline stocks weakened due to geopolitical tensions following Israel's attack on Iran [1] - Energy ETFs and the S&P 500 Energy Index both rose over 1% as oil prices surged [1] - Airline stocks declined amid concerns that supply chain bottlenecks could lead to soaring fuel costs [1] Group 2 - Defense stocks saw an increase, with Lockheed Martin leading the gains [1] - The uncertainty in U.S. domestic policy and geopolitical turmoil is impacting both the oil market and broader risk premiums [1]

Group 1 - Israel launched a large-scale attack on Iran, targeting nuclear facilities and missile factories, which may lead to a prolonged operation to prevent Iran from developing nuclear weapons [1] - The attack caused market turmoil, with U.S. stock index futures declining, oil prices surging, gold prices rising, and the U.S. dollar index strengthening [1] - Analysts noted that the geopolitical conflict could lead to increased inflation expectations, impacting fixed income markets and potentially pushing the Federal Reserve towards a more hawkish stance [1][2] Group 2 - The conflict has led to a rebound in the U.S. dollar, while safe-haven assets like the Swiss franc, Japanese yen, and gold have also strengthened [2] - The global stock market, which has seen a 30% increase in the MSCI global index this year, may face further declines as the conflict acts as a catalyst for price corrections [2] - Defensive sectors such as utilities, energy stocks, and defense companies are expected to perform well due to concerns over potential supply disruptions in the oil market [2] Group 3 - The scale and impact of the attack remain unclear, leading to limited market volatility despite a rush into safe-haven assets [3] - The uncertainty surrounding the geopolitical conflict adds to the fragile market sentiment, with the potential for either a quick de-escalation or an escalation that threatens oil transport routes [3]

能源价格的持续疲软成为主因之一，尤其是汽油价格的下降，对美国整体物价水平产生了较大影响。五月能源价格下降了百分之一，其中汽油下降百分之二 点六。与此同时，服装和汽车的价格也出现了意外的下滑，显示出关税对这些商品价格的预期影响并未完全到来。 美国五月CPI数据显示，通胀低于预期，核心CPI增幅为百分之二点八，保持自二零二一年三月以来的最低水平。尽管能源和服务价格依旧疲软，汽车和服 装价格出现意外下降，关税的影响尚未完全显现。 根据美国劳工部的数据，五月季调后CPI月率上升百分之零点一，低于预期的百分之零点二。剔除食品和能源后，核心CPI同比增幅仍保持在百分之二点 八，与4四月持平，显示出通胀的增长已趋于平稳。 在其他方面，食品价格略微上升，住房价格也保持稳定。经济学家指出，由于零售商和制造商在关税生效前提前采购了商品，一些预期中的价格冲击可能在 未来几个月才会显现。 美联储对于关税对通胀的潜在影响持审慎态度，市场普遍预期美联储在九月之前不会降息。尽管五月的温和通胀数据让投资者松了一口气，但分析人士表 示，关税政策的真正影响可能要到下半年才能体现在通胀数据中。 部分分析认为，由于目前商家仍在消化库存且需求未完全回 ...

美国能源股美股盘前普涨，戴文能源美股盘前涨5.3%，康菲石油涨4.4%，埃克森美孚涨3.6%，雪佛龙 涨3.4%。 ...