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国泰君安期货所长早读-20250722
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-07-22 01:53
Group 1: Investment Ratings - No report industry investment ratings are provided in the content [1][2] Group 2: Core Views - The US-EU trade negotiation has reached a deadlock, with the US setting an August 1st deadline for a new trade agreement, and the EU considering "nuclear option" countermeasures [5][20][21] - For specific commodities, the report provides trend predictions such as gold's upward oscillation, silver's upward breakthrough, and copper's price supported by inventory reduction [12][18][21] Group 3: Summaries by Commodity Propylene - On July 22, 2025, the listing benchmark price of the first batch of propylene futures contracts was 6350 yuan/ton. Considering the spread and delivery costs, the recommended strategy is to buy the 02 contract of propylene and short the 01 contract of PP [6] Glass - In the short term, the glass market is slightly bullish but overvalued. The market has rebounded due to policy expectations and reduced short positions. However, the high premium of futures contracts over spot prices may lead to market fluctuations. As the market approaches August, the delivery logic may favor short positions [9] Metals - **Gold and Silver**: Gold is expected to oscillate upward, and silver to break through upward [12][18] - **Copper**: Copper price is supported by inventory reduction, with both domestic and international copper inventories decreasing [21] - **Zinc**: Zinc is in a range - bound oscillation [12][24] - **Lead**: The price of lead is supported by supply - demand contradictions [12][27] - **Tin**: The price of tin is weakening [12][29] - **Aluminum and Related Products**: Aluminum is expected to oscillate upward, alumina has a short - term strong sentiment, and cast aluminum alloy follows the trend of electrolytic aluminum [12][33] - **Nickel and Stainless Steel**: Nickel's upward potential is limited by reality despite positive macro - sentiment, and stainless steel's trend is mainly influenced by macro - sentiment with fundamentals determining its elasticity [12][36] Chemicals - **Carbonate Lithium**: With potential supply reduction and positive macro - sentiment, the short - term trend may remain strong [12][41] - **Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon**: Industrial silicon's position is decreasing, making the market resistant to decline; polysilicon requires attention to component sales [12][45] Building Materials - **Iron Ore**: Supported by macro - expectations, it is in a bullish oscillation [12][48] - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil**: Market sentiment remains strong, and both are in a bullish oscillation [12][50][51] - **Silicon Ferrosilicon and Manganese Silicate**: Market sentiment is strong, and both are in a bullish oscillation [12][55] Energy - **Coke and Coking Coal**: Both are expected to oscillate upward [12][59][60] - **Steam Coal**: With the recovery of daily consumption, the market is stabilizing with an oscillating trend [12][63] Others - **Log**: The log market is oscillating repeatedly [66]
黑色建材日报-20250722
Wu Kuang Qi Huo· 2025-07-22 00:48
Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall atmosphere in the commodity market is positive, and the prices of finished products are showing a volatile and upward - trending pattern. The upcoming release of the stable - growth work plans for ten key industries and the construction of the Medog Hydropower Station are expected to boost the demand for building materials, and the market is expected to strengthen due to the low inventory level [3]. - In the short term, with the support of fundamentals and positive market sentiment, iron ore prices may remain strong, but risk control is needed after increased volatility [6]. - For manganese - silicon and silicon - iron, in the context of high volatility and no obvious trend, it is recommended to wait and see. The fundamental logic still points downward, but the current positive market sentiment may affect prices [9][10]. - For industrial silicon, the short - term upward trend continues, but it still faces the problems of over - supply and insufficient demand. It is recommended that speculators be rational and industrial players consider hedging [14][15]. - For glass, in the short term, it is boosted by macro - policies and inventory reduction. Long - term price trends depend on real estate policies and supply - side adjustments. It is recommended to avoid short positions [17]. - For soda ash, it is temporarily strong due to market sentiment, but there are still supply - demand contradictions in the medium - to - long term. It is recommended to avoid short positions in the short term and wait for opportunities to go short after the sentiment cools down [18]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - **Prices and Positions**: The closing price of the rebar main contract was 3,224 yuan/ton, up 77 yuan/ton (2.446%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts decreased by 897 tons, and the main - contract positions increased by 20,122 lots. The closing price of the hot - rolled coil main contract was 3,394 yuan/ton, up 84 yuan/ton (2.537%), with a decrease of 293 tons in registered warehouse receipts and an increase of 4,222 lots in main - contract positions [2]. - **Market Analysis**: The supply - demand of rebar both decreased, and inventory slightly accumulated. The output of hot - rolled coils decreased, demand slightly increased, and inventory decreased. Both rebar and hot - rolled coil inventories are at a five - year low. The market is affected by policies and terminal demand, and attention should be paid to policy signals and demand recovery [3]. Iron Ore - **Prices and Positions**: The main contract (I2509) closed at 809.00 yuan/ton, up 3.06% (+24.00), with a decrease of 29,220 lots in positions to 663,400 lots. The weighted positions were 1,120,900 lots. The spot price of PB powder at Qingdao Port was 785 yuan/wet ton, with a basis of 25.54 yuan/ton and a basis rate of 3.06% [5]. - **Supply - Demand Analysis**: Overseas iron - ore shipments increased overall, with a decline in Australia and an increase in Brazil and non - mainstream countries. The near - end arrivals decreased. The daily average pig - iron output increased, and port inventories slightly increased while steel - mill inventories decreased [6]. Manganese - Silicon and Silicon - Iron - **Prices and Trends**: The manganese - silicon main contract (SM509) closed up 1.90% at 5,914 yuan/ton, and the silicon - iron main contract (SF509) closed up 2.90% at 5,668 yuan/ton. The manganese - silicon is still in a rebound trend, and the silicon - iron shows a wide - range shock [9][10]. - **Operation Suggestions**: It is recommended to wait and see due to high volatility and no obvious trend. The fundamental logic still points downward, with over - supply, weakening demand, and potential cost reduction [9][10]. Industrial Silicon - **Prices and Trends**: The main contract (SI2509) closed up 6.50% at 9,260 yuan/ton. The short - term upward trend continues, and attention should be paid to the resistance at 9,700 yuan/ton [14]. - **Fundamental Analysis**: It still faces over - supply and insufficient demand. It is recommended that speculators be rational and industrial players consider hedging [15]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Glass**: The spot prices in Shahe and Central China increased. The total inventory of national float - glass sample enterprises decreased. It is boosted by policies and inventory reduction in the short term. Long - term trends depend on real estate policies and supply - side adjustments. It is recommended to avoid short positions [17]. - **Soda Ash**: The spot price increased, and the total inventory decreased slightly. The demand is still weak, and the supply is relatively loose in the medium term. It is temporarily strong due to market sentiment, and it is recommended to avoid short positions in the short term and wait for opportunities to go short after the sentiment cools down [18].
铁合金早报-20250722
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-07-22 00:42
Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - Not provided in the content Summary by Relevant Catalogs Price - For silicon ferroalloy on July 22, 2025, the latest prices of Ningxia 72 and Inner Mongolia 72 were 5280 and 5300 respectively, with daily changes of 50 and weekly changes of 80 and 100 [2]. - The latest price of Qinghai 72 silicon ferroalloy natural block was 5300, with a daily change of 50 and a weekly change of 100 [2]. - The latest price of Shaanxi 72 silicon ferroalloy was 5230, with a daily change of 50 and a weekly change of 80; the price of Shaanxi 75 was 5650, with no daily change and a weekly change of 50 [2]. - The latest price of Jiangsu 72 silicon ferroalloy qualified block was 5600, with no daily or weekly change; the price of Tianjin 72 for traders was 5600, with a daily change of 100 and a weekly change of 70 [2]. - The export prices of Tianjin 72 and Tianjin 75 silicon ferroalloy were 1005 and 1055 respectively, with no daily change and a weekly change of -5 [2]. - For silicon manganese on July 22, 2025, the ex - factory prices of Inner Mongolia 6517, Ningxia 6517, Guangxi 6517, Guizhou 6517, and Yunnan 6517 were 5680, 5680, 5700, 5650, and 5650 respectively, with daily changes of 50, 50, 30, 30, 30 and weekly changes of 80, 130, 50, 50, 50 [2]. - The price of Guangxi 6014 silicon manganese was 5100, with no daily or weekly change; the prices of Ningxia 6517 and Jiangsu 6517 for traders were 5680 and 5880 respectively, with daily changes of 50 and 90 and weekly changes of 130 and 130 [2]. Supply - Information on the production and capacity utilization of 136 silicon ferroalloy enterprises in China is provided, including monthly production, weekly production (with a capacity share of 95%), and monthly capacity utilization in Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, and Shaanxi [4]. - The production and capacity utilization of silicon manganese enterprises in China are also presented, such as weekly production and enterprise - level capacity utilization [7]. Demand - Data on the demand for silicon ferroalloy and silicon manganese in China are provided, including the demand for silicon manganese (in ten thousand tons, according to the Steel Union's caliber), and the procurement volume and price of silicon ferroalloy and silicon manganese by Hebei Iron and Steel Group [4][7][8]. - Information on the production of related downstream products such as crude steel, metal magnesium, and stainless - steel crude steel is also included, which reflects the demand for ferroalloys [4]. Inventory - For silicon ferroalloy, the inventory data of 60 sample enterprises in China, Ningxia, Inner Mongolia, and Shaanxi on a weekly basis are provided, as well as the daily data of CZCE silicon ferroalloy warehouse receipts, effective forecasts, and the sum of warehouse receipts and effective forecasts [6]. - For silicon manganese, the daily data of CZCE silicon manganese warehouse receipts, effective forecasts, and the sum of warehouse receipts and effective forecasts, as well as the inventory data of 63 sample enterprises in China on a weekly basis are presented [8]. Cost and Profit - For silicon ferroalloy, data on electricity prices in Qinghai, Ningxia, Shaanxi, and Inner Mongolia, the market price and production profit of semi - coke, and the production cost and profit of silicon ferroalloy in Ningxia and Inner Mongolia are provided [6]. - For silicon manganese, the cost - related data such as the ex - factory price of chemical coke and the price of manganese ore, and the profit data in Inner Mongolia, Guangxi, the northern region, and the southern region are presented [7][8].
黑色产业链日报-20250721
Dong Ya Qi Huo· 2025-07-21 10:08
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The steel market is driven by the expectation of supply contraction and demand expansion. The steel price is expected to remain strong before the Politburo meeting in July, but there is a risk of a pullback due to a decline in sentiment [3]. - The iron ore market remains strong, with both fundamentals and expectations improving. The short - term outlook for industrial products is positive, but there are concerns about increased shipments [17]. - The coking coal and coke market is supported by speculative and rigid demand in the short term, but the high price of furnace materials may pose a threat to steel mill profits in the long term [31]. - The ferroalloy market is expected to have an optimistic price trend in the short term, but the fundamental driving force is not strong, and attention should be paid to the implementation of policy expectations [48]. - The soda ash market is in a situation of strong supply and weak demand, and the market is in a long - term oversupply expectation. Attention should be paid to unexpected or policy - related disturbances [62]. - The glass market remains strong, and the supply is in a state of co - existence of ignition and cold repair. The market is in a weak balance, and attention should be paid to the feedback of industrial behavior on the spot side [85]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Steel - **Price and Market Situation**: Influenced by policies and project news, steel prices rose. The current supply - demand of steel has no significant contradiction, and the "off - season is not off" effect is generated. Before the Politburo meeting in July, the steel price is expected to remain strong, but there is a risk of a pullback [3]. - **Price Data**: Provided the closing prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil contracts on different dates, as well as spot prices, basis, and spread data [3][6][10]. Iron Ore - **Market Situation**: The iron ore market remains strong, with iron water production increasing unexpectedly. The inventory accumulation is not smooth, and the spot is in a tight balance. However, there are concerns about increased shipments [17]. - **Price and Fundamental Data**: Provided price data of iron ore contracts, basis, and spot prices, as well as fundamental data such as iron water production, port throughput, and inventory [18][25]. Coking Coal and Coke - **Market Situation**: The coking coal and coke market is supported by speculative and rigid demand in the short term, and the second round of price increases by coking plants is likely to be implemented. In the long term, the high price of furnace materials may pose a threat to steel mill profits [31]. - **Price Data**: Provided coking coal and coke contract prices, basis, and spot prices, as well as profit and ratio data [31][33]. Ferroalloy - **Market Situation**: Driven by the anti - involution sentiment and the strengthening of coal prices, the ferroalloy price is expected to be optimistic in the short term. The supply - demand contradiction is not significant, and attention should be paid to the implementation of policy expectations [48]. - **Price Data**: Provided price data of ferrosilicon and ferromanganese, including basis, spread, and spot prices [49][50]. Soda Ash - **Market Situation**: The anti - involution and elimination of backward production capacity expectations are fermenting, but the actual impact needs further policy guidance. The supply is in a narrow - range fluctuation, and the demand is weak. The market is in a long - term oversupply expectation [62]. - **Price Data**: Provided soda ash contract prices, basis, and spot prices, as well as price difference data [63][64]. Glass - **Market Situation**: Driven by the anti - involution expectation, the glass market remains strong. The supply is in a state of co - existence of ignition and cold repair, and the market is in a weak balance. Attention should be paid to the feedback of industrial behavior on the spot side [85]. - **Price and Sales Data**: Provided glass contract prices, basis, and daily sales data in different regions [87][88].
永安期货铁合金早报-20250721
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-07-21 01:49
| | | | | | | | | | 2025/7/21 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 品种 | 项目 | | 现货 | | 仓单 | | 盘面 | | | | | | 最新 | 日变化 | 周变化 | 出厂价折盘面 | 最新 | | 日变化 | 周变化 | | 硅铁自然块 | 宁夏#72 | 5230 | 30 | 30 | 5490 | 主力合约 | 5508 | 26 | 48 | | | 内蒙#72 | 5250 | 0 | 50 | 5550 | 01合约 | 5566 | 20 | 36 | | 产区汇总价 | 青海#72 | 5250 | 50 | 50 | 5580 | 05合约 | 5626 | 28 | 38 | | | 陕西#72 | 5180 | 30 | 30 | 5480 | 09合约 | 5508 | 26 | 48 | | | 陕西#75 | 5650 | 0 | 50 | | 主力月基差 | -18 | 4 | -18 | | 硅铁合格块 | 江苏#72 | 5600 | ...
硅铁、锰硅产业链周度报告:硅铁、锰硅产业链周度报告-20250720
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-07-20 13:13
硅铁&锰硅产业链周度报告 国泰君安期货研究所 黑色金属 李亚飞 投资咨询从业资格号: Z0021184 金园园 (联系人)从业资格号:F03134630 日期: 2025年7月20日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint 硅铁&锰硅观点:现货需求偏紧,盘面带动成本上移 ◼ 总体来看,双硅供需格局扩张,合金市场仍呈现"情绪驱动冲高,需求支撑仍存"的特征,双硅钢招定价均环比放量上涨,但仍避免过度追涨,生产商 逢高点价出货格局已定,需关注主力合约交割期的仓单注册情况,同时成材供给与钢厂利润同处高位的持续性仍存疑,保持对港口矿端报价及铁水产量 的高频跟踪,等待市场情绪的缓冲与钢厂的实际减停产信号。 双硅上涨情绪不减,价格走势震荡偏强 ◼ 本周硅铁2509合约走势偏强震荡,收于5,508元/吨,周环比上涨48元/吨,成交792,287 手,持仓183,514 手,持仓环比减少183,514 手。 | 基本面 | 条 目 | | | 硅 | 铁 | | | | | 锰 硅 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | ...
黑色产业链日报-20250718
Dong Ya Qi Huo· 2025-07-18 12:32
Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - In the steel market, with optimistic domestic and overseas macro - environments and coking coal price concessions as a supporting factor, the steel futures market is rising. The downstream's enthusiasm for covering short positions and spot - futures trading has increased, and steel mills' orders are good. The market is expected to remain strong in the short term [3]. - For iron ore, its short - term fundamentals are strengthening. Although there may be a slight weakening in the long - term, the contradictions are not significant. With high inventory, potential for increased shipments, and stable steel mill demand, it is still considered strong in the short term [20]. - Regarding coal and coke, the short - term market may continue to be strong due to the current good profitability of downstream steel mills. However, in the long - term, the supply - demand gap of coking coal will narrow, and the high iron - making rate may not be sustainable [29]. - In the ferroalloy market, driven by anti - cut - throat competition sentiment, it has been rising slowly. But considering the weakening cost and downstream demand in the off - season, it is expected to be weak in the long - term, with possible fluctuations [46]. - For soda ash, due to the expected disturbances and fundamental limitations, it is rising in a volatile manner. The supply - demand pattern of strong supply and weak demand remains unchanged, and attention should be paid to unexpected or policy - related factors [58]. - In the glass market, the price has moved up. The supply side has a co - existence of ignition and cold - repair, and the market needs to observe the improvement of market sentiment and the real downstream demand [89]. Summary by Directory Steel - **Futures Prices**: On July 18, 2025, the closing prices of rebar 01, 05, and 10 contracts were 3191, 3207, and 3147 yuan/ton respectively, and those of hot - rolled coil 01, 05, and 10 contracts were 3320, 3327, and 3310 yuan/ton respectively [4]. - **Spot Prices**: On July 18, 2025, the aggregated rebar price in China was 3319 yuan/ton, and the aggregated hot - rolled coil price in Shanghai was 3340 yuan/ton [6][8]. - **Spread**: The 01 - 05 spread of rebar was - 16 yuan/ton, and that of hot - rolled coil was - 7 yuan/ton on July 18, 2025 [4]. Iron Ore - **Futures Prices**: On July 18, 2025, the closing prices of 01, 05, and 09 contracts were 753, 730, and 785 yuan/ton respectively [21]. - **Spot Prices**: On July 18, 2025, the price of Rizhao PB powder was 773 yuan/ton [21]. - **Fundamentals**: The daily average pig iron output on July 18, 2025, was 242.44 tons, and the 45 - port inventory was 13785.21 tons [24]. Coal and Coke - **Futures Prices**: On July 18, 2025, the coking coal 09 - 01 spread was - 49.5 yuan/ton, and the coke 09 - 01 spread was - 45 yuan/ton [30]. - **Spot Prices**: On July 18, 2025, the ex - factory price of Anze low - sulfur primary coking coal was 1300 yuan/ton, and the ex - factory price of Lvliang quasi - first - grade wet coke was 1030 yuan/ton [31]. - **Profit and Spread**: The on - site coking profit on July 18, 2025, was 73 yuan/ton, and the main ore - coke ratio was 0.517 [30]. Ferroalloy - **Silicon Iron**: On July 18, 2025, the silicon iron basis in Ningxia was 72 yuan/ton, and the 01 - 05 spread was - 60 yuan/ton [49]. - **Silicon Manganese**: On July 18, 2025, the silicon manganese basis in Inner Mongolia was 176 yuan/ton, and the 01 - 05 spread was - 28 yuan/ton [50]. Soda Ash - **Futures Prices**: On July 18, 2025, the closing prices of soda ash 05, 09, and 01 contracts were 1306, 1216, and 1265 yuan/ton respectively [60]. - **Spot Prices**: On July 18, 2025, the market price of heavy soda ash in North China was 1300 yuan/ton [61]. Glass - **Futures Prices**: On July 18, 2025, the closing prices of glass 05, 09, and 01 contracts were 1240, 1081, and 1165 yuan/ton respectively [90]. - **Spot Prices**: On July 18, 2025, the 05 - contract basis in Shahe was - 74 yuan/ton [90]. - **Production and Sales**: From July 8 - 13, 2025, the production - sales ratio in Shahe ranged from 91% to 120%, and in Hubei from 92% to 163% [92].
合金周度数据-20250718
Zhong Xin Qi Huo· 2025-07-18 07:26
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the content. 2. Core View of the Report - The report presents the weekly data of silicon manganese and silicon iron alloys on July 18, 2025, including daily average output, weekly operating rate, weekly apparent demand, and sample enterprise inventory, and compares them with the data on July 11, 2025 [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Silicon Manganese - **Daily Average Output**: The daily average output on July 18, 2025, was 26,120 tons/day, an increase of 80 tons/day compared to July 11, 2025 [2]. - **Weekly Operating Rate**: The weekly operating rate on July 18, 2025, was 40.53%, a decrease of 0.02 percentage points compared to July 11, 2025 [2]. - **Weekly Apparent Demand**: The weekly apparent demand on July 18, 2025, was 123,381 tons, a decrease of 1,547 tons compared to July 11, 2025 [2]. - **Sample Enterprise Inventory**: The sample enterprise inventory on July 18, 2025, was 216,300 tons, a decrease of 4,500 tons compared to July 11, 2025 [2]. Silicon Iron - **Daily Average Output**: The daily average output on July 18, 2025, was 14,285 tons/day, an increase of 175 tons/day compared to July 11, 2025 [2]. - **Weekly Operating Rate**: The weekly operating rate on July 18, 2025, was 32.45%, an increase of 1.25 percentage points compared to July 11, 2025 [2]. - **Weekly Apparent Demand**: The weekly apparent demand on July 18, 2025, was 20,013.7 tons, a decrease of 153.6 tons compared to July 11, 2025 [2]. - **Sample Enterprise Inventory**: The sample enterprise inventory on July 18, 2025, was 63,540 tons, a decrease of 6,700 tons compared to July 11, 2025 [2].
硅铁:钢招情绪不减,宽幅震荡
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-07-18 02:06
Group 1: Report's Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The steel procurement sentiment for ferrosilicon and silicomanganese remains strong, and both are in a wide - range oscillation [1] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: For ferrosilicon, the closing prices of 2508 and 2509 contracts are 5466 and 5482 respectively, with volume of 5,010 and 122,756, and open interest of 11,364 and 193,107. For silicomanganese, the closing prices of 2508 and 2509 contracts are 5792 and 5794 respectively, with volume of 1,553 and 146,872, and open interest of 12,184 and 353,847 [1] - **Spot Data**: The spot price of ferrosilicon FeSi75 - B in Inner Mongolia is 5250 yuan/ton, silicomanganese FeMn65Si17 in Inner Mongolia is 5600 yuan/ton, Mn44 block manganese ore is 39.0 yuan/ton - degree, and small - sized semi - coke in Shenmu is 550 yuan/ton [1] - **Spread Data**: The spot - futures spread of ferrosilicon (spot - 08 futures) is - 216 yuan/ton, and that of silicomanganese (spot - 09 futures) is - 194 yuan/ton. The near - far month spread of ferrosilicon 2508 - 2509 is - 16 yuan/ton, and that of silicomanganese 2508 - 2509 is - 2 yuan/ton. The cross - variety spread of silicomanganese 2508 - ferrosilicon 2508 is 326 yuan/ton, and that of silicomanganese 2509 - ferrosilicon 2509 is 312 yuan/ton [1] Macro and Industry News - **Price Information**: On July 17, prices of 72 ferrosilicon in different regions range from 5050 - 5200 yuan/ton, and 75 from 5550 - 5700 yuan/ton. FOB prices of 72 are 1000 - 1020 dollars/ton, and 75 are 1080 - 1110 dollars/ton. The northern price of 6517 silicomanganese is 5500 - 5600 yuan/ton, and the southern price is 5600 - 5650 yuan/ton [2] - **Procurement Information**: A steel mill in Jiangsu set the procurement price of 75B ferrosilicon at 5600 yuan/ton, up 150 yuan/ton from the previous round, with a quantity of 1000 tons. Steel mills in Zhejiang, Henan, and Shengli (Qingyuan) set silicomanganese procurement prices at 5770, 5735, and 5800 yuan/ton respectively, with the latter up 80 yuan/ton [2][3] - **Steel Production Data**: In early July, the daily average output of crude steel from key steel enterprises was 209.7 million tons, a 1.5% decrease from the previous ten - day period and a 2.6% year - on - year decrease. The daily average output of steel products was 198.8 million tons, an 11.9% decrease from the previous ten - day period and a 0.4% year - on - year increase [3] Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of ferrosilicon is 0, and that of silicomanganese is 0, indicating a neutral view [3]
永安期货铁合金早报-20250718
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-07-18 01:03
Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Core Viewpoints - No relevant content found Summary by Catalog Price - On July 18, 2025, the latest price of Ningxia 72 silicon - iron natural block was 5200 yuan, with a weekly increase of 50 yuan; the latest price of Inner Mongolia 72 was 5250 yuan, with a weekly increase of 50 yuan; the latest price of Qinghai 72 was 5200 yuan, with a weekly increase of 50 yuan; the latest price of Shaanxi 72 was 5150 yuan, with a weekly increase of 50 yuan; the latest price of Shaanxi 75 was 5650 yuan, with a weekly increase of 50 yuan [2]. - The latest price of Jiangsu 72 silicon - iron qualified block was 5600 yuan, with no daily or weekly change; the latest price of Tianjin 72 (trader price) was 5470 yuan, with a daily increase of 20 yuan and a weekly decrease of 130 yuan; the latest price of Tianjin 72 (export price in US dollars) was 1005 dollars, with a weekly decrease of 5 dollars; the latest price of Tianjin 75 (export price in US dollars) was 1055 dollars, with a weekly decrease of 5 dollars [2]. - For silicon - manganese, the latest ex - factory price of Inner Mongolia 6517 was 5600 yuan, with a weekly increase of 50 yuan; the latest price of Ningxia 6517 was 5600 yuan, with a weekly increase of 50 yuan; the latest price of Guangxi 6517 was 5650 yuan, with no change; the latest price of Guizhou 6517 was 5600 yuan, with no change; the latest price of Yunnan 6517 was 5600 yuan, with no change; the latest price of Guangxi 6014 was 5100 yuan, with no change [2]. - The latest price of Ningxia 6517 (trader price) was 5600 yuan, with a weekly increase of 50 yuan; the latest price of Jiangsu 6517 (trader price) was 5770 yuan, with a weekly decrease of 30 yuan [2]. Supply - The report shows long - term trends of production - related data such as the monthly production of 136 silicon - iron enterprises in China, the weekly production of 136 silicon - iron enterprises in China (with a capacity share of 95%), and the monthly capacity utilization rates of 136 silicon - iron production enterprises in Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, and Shaanxi from 2021 to 2025 [4]. - It also presents the long - term trends of the weekly production of silicon - manganese in China from 2021 to 2025 [6]. Demand - The report provides long - term trends of demand - related data such as the estimated and revised monthly production of crude steel in China, the monthly production of stainless - steel crude steel in China, the monthly demand for silicon - manganese in China (according to Steel Union's data), and the monthly export volume of silicon - iron and silicon - manganese in China from 2021 to 2025 [4][7]. Inventory - The report shows long - term trends of inventory - related data such as the weekly inventory of 60 sample silicon - iron enterprises in China, the weekly inventory of 60 sample silicon - iron enterprises in Ningxia, Inner Mongolia, and Shaanxi, the daily total number of silicon - iron warehouse receipts on CZCE, the daily effective forecast of silicon - iron, and the daily inventory average available days of silicon - iron in East China, South China, and the North from 2021 to 2025 [5]. - It also presents the long - term trends of inventory - related data for silicon - manganese, including the daily total number of silicon - manganese warehouse receipts on CZCE, the daily effective forecast of silicon - manganese, the daily inventory average available days of silicon - manganese in China, and the weekly inventory of 63 sample silicon - manganese enterprises in China from 2021 to 2025 [7]. Cost Profit - The report shows long - term trends of cost - profit - related data such as the electricity prices for ferroalloys in Qinghai, Ningxia, Shaanxi, and Inner Mongolia, the mainstream market price of semi - coke in Shaanxi, the production profit of semi - coke in China, the market price of 98% silica in the northwest region of China, the market price of 70% iron oxide scale in Shijiazhuang, the production cost of silicon - iron in Ningxia and Inner Mongolia, the profit of silicon - iron in Ningxia converted to the main contract on the futures market, the spot profit of silicon - iron in Ningxia, and the export profit of 75% silicon - iron from 2021 to 2025 [5]. - It also presents the long - term trends of cost - profit - related data for silicon - manganese, including the profit of silicon - manganese in Inner Mongolia, Guangxi, the North region, and the South region (according to Steel Union's data), the profit of silicon - manganese in Guangxi converted to the main contract on the futures market, and the profit of silicon - manganese in Ningxia converted to the futures market from 2021 to 2025 [7].