记者：古一平、韩佳诺 农业农村部1月22日在国新办举行的新闻发布会上发布信息显示，2025年我国农业现代化水平持续提 升，农业科技进步贡献率超过64%。 2025年 我国农业现代化水平 农业科技进步贡献率超过64% 智慧农业应用场景全链拓展 新华社权 戴快报 2025年我国支持新建和改造提升高标准农田7568万亩，累计建成超10亿亩。种业振兴行动扎实推进，农 机装备研发应用加快发展，智慧农业应用场景全链拓展，农业绿色转型步伐加快。 ...

Economic Growth - The GDP of Ledong Li Autonomous County is projected to increase from 17.867 billion yuan in 2021 to 23.8 billion yuan by 2025, reflecting an average annual growth rate of 4.41% [1][3] - The total output value of agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery is expected to grow at an average annual rate of 6.5% [3] Industrial Development - The industrial added value is anticipated to grow at an average annual rate of 8.1%, with 14 new high-tech enterprises and 45 technology-based small and medium-sized enterprises established [3] - The modern service industry, including finance, logistics, and e-commerce, is expanding, with retail sales of consumer goods growing at an average annual rate of 4% and total import and export volume increasing by 20.8% annually [3] Tourism Sector - The tourism sector is experiencing significant growth, with the total number of tourists and total tourism expenditure increasing at average annual rates of 27.61% and 41.81%, respectively [3] Infrastructure and Investment - Ledong has established Hainan's first deep-sea aquaculture platform and has launched a land-based supporting project with over 1,000 industrial parks [3] - The county has attracted 49 enterprises, with a total investment of over 25 billion yuan in signed projects, maintaining high rates of investment landing and commencement for three consecutive years [3]

农产品团队 | 作者： | 侯芝芳 | | --- | --- | | 从业资格证号： | F3042058 | | 投资咨询证号： | Z0014216 | | 联系方式： | 010-68578922 | | 作者： | 宋从志 | 从业资格证号： F03095512 投资咨询证号： Z0020712 联系方式： 18001936153 投资咨询证号： Z0017427 作者： 王亮亮 从业资格证号： F03096306 联系方式： 010-68578697 作者： 辛旋 从业资格证号： F3064981 投资咨询证号： Z0016876 联系方式： -- 作者： 汤冰华 从业资格证号： F3038544 投资咨询证号： Z0015153 联系方式： 010-68518793 投资咨询业务资格：京证监许可【2012】75号 成文时间：2026年01月21日星期三 更多精彩内容请关注方正中期官方微信 摘要 软商品板块 白糖 【市场逻辑】 周三，郑糖主力合约下跌，午后收跌于5144元/吨。广西南宁白糖 报价5280元/吨，环比下降20元/吨。市场逻辑与观点暂无明显变化 。尽管巴西糖季节性供应减少，但印度糖丰产 ...

Market Overview - The Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets opened higher on January 22, with the Shanghai Composite Index experiencing slight fluctuations before closing at 4110.86 points, down 0.15% with a trading volume of approximately 798.7 billion yuan [1] - The Shenzhen Component Index closed at 14230.97 points, down 0.17%, with a trading volume of about 974.9 billion yuan [1] - The ChiNext Index closed at 3282.48 points, down 0.40%, with a trading volume of around 441.3 billion yuan [1] - The North Star 50 Index increased by 0.43% to 1526.30 points, with a trading volume of approximately 16.22 billion yuan [1] Sector Performance - Semiconductor, memory chip, and IT equipment sectors opened significantly higher, while oil and gas extraction, shipbuilding, aerospace, Kimi concept, satellite internet, and controllable nuclear fusion sectors also showed strong initial gains [1] - By midday, aerospace, oil and gas extraction, and shipbuilding sectors were among the top gainers, while precious metals, high-bandwidth memory, and electronic chemicals faced the largest declines [1] Investment Insights - CITIC Securities highlighted the acceleration of surgical robot promotion in China due to new pricing guidelines from the National Healthcare Security Administration, suggesting a focus on the surgical robot industry and its supply chain [2] - GF Securities noted a shift in electricity consumption from secondary to tertiary industries and urban-rural residents, with wind and solar power contributing significantly to electricity generation growth [2] - Huatai Securities pointed out key changes in the automotive industry, including rising costs due to price increases in storage chips and metals, and opportunities for Chinese automakers in the North American market following tariff reductions [2] Government Initiatives - The National Development and Reform Commission announced the allocation of 93.6 billion yuan in special bonds to support equipment upgrades across various sectors, with total investments expected to exceed 460 billion yuan [3] - The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs reported that by 2025, the contribution rate of agricultural technology progress is expected to exceed 64%, with significant advancements in high-standard farmland construction and smart agriculture applications [4]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content. 2. Core Viewpoints - The government has taken measures to address "involution" in different industries. For example, the Ministry of Finance issued a notice to solve the problem of abnormally low prices in government procurement, and the People's Bank of China plans to promote the high - quality development of the modern payment system [1][2] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. Meso - level Event Overview Production Industry - The Ministry of Finance issued a notice to address "involution" in government procurement. Purchasers should form scientific procurement requirements and set reasonable maximum prices [1]. Service Industry - The Chinese Foreign Ministry responded to a question about potential Sino - US trade negotiations, emphasizing the need to implement the consensus of the two heads of state. The People's Bank of China plans to promote the high - quality development of the modern payment system, including accelerating the construction of the RMB cross - border payment system and strengthening supervision [2]. 3.2. Industry Overview Upstream - Black: Iron ore prices slightly declined. - Agriculture: Egg and pork prices continued to rise. - Non - ferrous: Copper prices slightly declined [2]. Midstream - Chemical: The operating rates of PX and urea remained high. - Energy: The coal consumption of power plants was at a low level [3]. Downstream - Real Estate: The sales of commercial housing in second - tier cities increased seasonally. - Services: The number of domestic flight schedules decreased [4]. 3.3. Key Industry Price Indicators | Industry | Indicator | Value on 1/21 | YoY | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Agriculture | Corn spot price | 2264.3 yuan/ton | + 0.19% | | | Egg spot price | 7.9 yuan/kg | + 3.70% | | | Palm oil spot price | 8724.0 yuan/ton | + 1.09% | | | Cotton spot price | 15837.7 yuan/ton | - 0.62% | | | Average pork wholesale price | 18.5 yuan/kg | + 1.70% | | Non - ferrous Metals | Copper spot price | 100221.7 yuan/ton | - 3.75% | | | Zinc spot price | 24188.0 yuan/ton | - 1.31% | | | Aluminum spot price | 23721.7 yuan/ton | - 3.86% | | | Nickel spot price | 145100.0 yuan/ton | - 3.08% | | Ferrous Metals | Rebar spot price | 3204.7 yuan/ton | - 1.24% | | | Iron ore spot price | 807.6 yuan/ton | - 3.89% | | | Wire rod spot price | 3437.5 yuan/ton | - 1.72% | | | Glass spot price | 12.9 yuan/square meter | - 0.23% | | Non - metals | Natural rubber spot price | 15533.3 yuan/ton | - 1.32% | | | China Plastic City price index | 775.2 | + 0.14% | | Energy | WTI crude oil spot price | 60.4 dollars/barrel | - 0.94% | | | Brent crude oil spot price | 64.9 dollars/barrel | - 0.84% | | | Liquefied natural gas spot price | 3522.0 yuan/ton | - 1.29% | | | Coal price | 806.0 yuan/ton | + 0.62% | | Chemical | PTA spot price | 5044.9 yuan/ton | - 0.96% | | | Polyethylene spot price | 6725.0 yuan/ton | + 2.39% | | | Urea spot price | 1752.5 yuan/ton | + 0.29% | | | Soda ash spot price | 1202.9 yuan/ton | - 0.94% | | Real Estate | National cement price index | 133.7 | - 0.92% | | | Building materials composite index | 114.8 points | - 0.77% | | | National concrete price index | 90.2 points | - 0.17% | [37]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Cautious and bullish: Index (IH), Index (IF), Index (IC), Index (IN), Rubber, Hot Roll, Iron Ore, Coking Coal, Coke, Manganese Silicon, Aluminum, Carbonate Lithium, Cotton, Corn [6] - Cautious and bearish: Crude Oil, Methanol, Rebar, Apple, Container Shipping to Europe [6] 2. Core Views of the Report - The stock market in 2026 is expected to continue its upward trend due to the continuous supply - side reform, the release of policy effects, the strengthening of economic recovery momentum, and the continuous allocation of overseas funds to Chinese assets [12] - The long - term upward trend of precious metals remains unchanged, supported by factors such as geopolitical uncertainty, easing inflation pressure in the US, and expected interest rate cuts by the Fed [4][5][21] - The price of crude oil may be affected by geopolitical factors and supply - demand balance, with an expected increase in demand in the future [2][15] - The price of carbonate lithium is likely to be easy to rise and difficult to fall under the logic of downstream low inventory and long - term bullish lithium prices [3][25] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1当日主要新闻关注 3.1.1 International News - The US has officially withdrawn from the WHO. Denmark refuses to negotiate on the sovereignty of Greenland with the US. Putin will meet with the US presidential envoy and is willing to pay $1 billion to join the "Peace Committee" from frozen assets in the US [1][8] 3.1.2 Domestic News - In 2025, Shanghai's GDP reached 5670.871 billion yuan, with a year - on - year growth of 5.4%, ranking fifth among global cities [9] 3.1.3 Industry News - In 2025, China's artificial intelligence core industry scale is expected to exceed 12 trillion yuan, with over 330 humanoid robot products released, and the 6G second - stage technical test has been launched [10] 3.2外盘每日收益情况 - S&P 500 rose 1.16%, ICE Brent crude oil rose 2.06%, London gold rose 1.47%, while European STOXX 50 fell 0.32%, London silver fell 1.51% [11] 3.3主要品种早盘评论 3.3.1 Financial - **Stock Index**: The stock market is expected to continue its upward trend in 2026, driven by multiple factors. It has shifted from valuation expansion to profit - driven [12] - **Treasury Bond**: The price of treasury bond futures has stabilized, affected by factors such as central bank policies, market risk appetite, and economic data [13][14] 3.3.2 Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: SC night session rose 1.22%. Geopolitical risk premium in the oil market has decreased, and the supply is expected to increase in the short term [2][15] - **Methanol**: Methanol night session rose 0.41%. The overall coastal methanol inventory has decreased slightly. Short - term bullish, but need to pay attention to the situation in Iran [16] - **Natural Rubber**: The price of rubber is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term, supported by supply and demand factors [17] - **Polyolefin**: Polyolefin futures may fluctuate in the short term, affected by supply expectations and crude oil prices [18][19] - **Glass and Soda Ash**: The glass and soda ash futures have declined. The market focuses on the recovery of the real estate industry chain and supply - side contraction [20] 3.3.3 Metals - **Precious Metals**: Gold continues to rebound, and silver rises first and then falls. The long - term upward trend of precious metals remains unchanged [4][5][21] - **Copper**: The copper price may experience a phased correction after the release of optimistic sentiment [22] - **Zinc**: The zinc price may also have a phased correction after the release of optimistic sentiment in the non - ferrous metal market [23] - **Aluminum**: Although the short - term fundamentals are weak, the low inventory and supply constraints provide support for the aluminum price in the long term [24] - **Carbonate Lithium**: The carbonate lithium price is likely to be easy to rise and difficult to fall, but investors should be cautious [3][25] 3.3.4 Black Metals - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The decline of the double - coking futures is limited in the short term, and attention should be paid to supply, iron - making output, and downstream replenishment [26] - **Steel**: The steel price is expected to fluctuate before the Spring Festival, with a weak supply - demand situation and narrowing inventory decline [27] - **Iron Ore**: The iron ore price is expected to fluctuate slightly stronger in the short term, and steel mills will maintain on - demand procurement [28] 3.3.5 Agricultural Products - **Protein Meal**: The price of soybean and rapeseed meal is under pressure due to the expected high yield of Brazilian soybeans and high domestic inventory [29][30] - **Edible Oil**: The palm oil price is supported, while the rapeseed oil price may be suppressed in the future [31] - **Sugar**: The sugar price is expected to remain low in the short term due to seasonal supply pressure [32] - **Cotton**: The cotton price is expected to maintain a low - level shock in the short term, and investors can consider buying at low prices [33] 3.3.6 Shipping Index - **Container Shipping to Europe**: The freight rate is expected to decline rapidly before the Spring Festival, but the market is not very pessimistic about the April freight rate [34]

消息方面，农业农村部副部长在国新办上表示，2026年聚焦实现高水平农业科技自立自强，进一步发挥 新型举国体制优势，加快种业、农机装备、智慧农业等关键领域突破，扎实推进科技创新和产业创新深 度融合。2025年支持新建和改造提升高标准农田7568万亩，累计建成超10亿亩。农业科技进步贡献率超 过64%。 华源证券分析指出，2025年全国生猪出栏量和年末存栏量同比均有所增长，能繁母猪存栏虽同比下降但 仍处于正常保有量之上，行业整体产能仍处高位。尽管近期猪价回升至13.25元/kg，带动仔猪价格反 弹，但去产能节奏偏缓，表明市场对后市预期趋于谨慎。展望2026年，在产能调控政策影响下，猪价或 提前止跌回升，成本领先且具备联农带农机制的企业有望获得超额利润与估值溢价。 2026年1月22日早盘，农林牧渔板块红盘微扬，截至10:40，中证大农业指数上涨0.64%，成分股和邦生 物上涨7.41%，新乳业上涨3.04%，兴发集团上涨2.38%，中坚科技上涨2.37%，涪陵榨菜上涨2.30%。 数据显示，截至2025年12月31日，中证大农业指数前十大权重股分别为藏格矿业、盐湖股份、牧原股 份、海天味业、伊利股份、温氏股份、东 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - With policies cooling the market's speculative sentiment, raising the proportion of margin trading funds, and Central Huijin selling a large amount of broad - based index ETFs, the stock index is in shock adjustment. The policy aims for a "slow - bull" market rather than suppressing it, and the short - term shock adjustment space is expected to be limited. Long - term bulls can choose the opportunity to layout [1]. - Asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial to bond futures, but the central bank has recently warned of interest - rate risks. Attention should be paid to the Bank of Japan's interest - rate decision [1]. - With the US postponing the tax on key minerals, the short - term concern about copper hoarding has eased, and the copper price is expected to fluctuate at a high level. The aluminum price has fallen from a high level due to limited industrial drivers and weakening macro sentiment. The domestic alumina market has strong supply and weak demand, and the price is under pressure but is expected to fluctuate around the cost line [1]. - The zinc price fluctuates in a range due to the stabilization of the cost center and the appearance of inventory pressure. The nickel supply is still tight despite the announced RKAB target in 2026, and the nickel price is expected to fluctuate at a high level in the short term, affected by the resonance of the non - ferrous metal sector. Stainless steel futures have risen significantly, and attention should be paid to the actual production of steel mills and the risk of short squeezes [1]. - The tin price has corrected due to the repeated macro sentiment, but there is still upward momentum due to the vulnerability of tin - ore supply. Precious metals are supported by geopolitical and trade uncertainties, but the silver price may be weaker than the gold price. Platinum and palladium are expected to fluctuate widely in the short term, and long - platinum and short - palladium arbitrage strategies can be considered in the medium - to - long term [1]. - For industrial silicon, there is an increase in production in the northwest and a decrease in the southwest, and the production schedules of polysilicon and organic silicon in December have declined. For new - energy vehicles, it is the off - season, while the energy - storage demand is strong, and there is a rush for exports. The rebar and iron - ore prices are under pressure, and the trading strategies are to leave the market for single - side long positions and participate in cash - and - carry arbitrage [1]. - The soda - ash price is under pressure as it follows the glass market and the medium - term supply - demand is more relaxed. The coking - coal and coke prices are bearish, and the previous low - long strategy may need to be changed [1]. - Palm oil is expected to fluctuate strongly, soybean oil is recommended to be over - allocated in the oil market, and rapeseed oil is recommended to be observed. The cotton market is currently in a situation of "having support but no driver", and attention should be paid to relevant policies and market conditions in the future. The sugar market is in a global surplus, and the short - term fundamentals lack continuous drivers [1]. - The corn price is expected to fluctuate in the short term, and the soybean price is expected to fluctuate weakly. The pulp price is recommended to be observed cautiously, and the log price is expected to fluctuate in the range of 760 - 790 yuan/m³. The live - pig market has stable spot prices, and the production capacity still needs to be further released [1]. - The fuel - oil and asphalt prices are affected by multiple factors such as OPEC+ policies and geopolitical situations. The BR rubber price is in a phased correction, and the PTA, MEG, short - fiber, and styrene prices are affected by supply - demand and cost factors [1]. - The urea price has limited upward space due to weak domestic demand but is supported by anti - involution and cost. The PF price is under supply pressure and affected by geopolitical factors. The PVC price is expected to trade based on fundamentals, and the LPG price is supported by import - gas costs and has a changing inventory situation [1]. - The container - shipping price on the European route is expected to peak in mid - January, and there is still pre - holiday replenishment demand [1]. 3. Summaries According to Related Catalogs Stock Index - Policy cools speculative sentiment, and the stock index is in shock adjustment. The short - term adjustment space is limited, and long - term bulls can layout [1]. Bond Futures - Asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial, but the central bank warns of interest - rate risks. Attention to the Bank of Japan's interest - rate decision [1]. Non - Ferrous Metals - Copper: The short - term concern about hoarding eases, and the price fluctuates at a high level [1]. - Aluminum: Falls from a high level due to limited industrial drivers and weakening macro sentiment [1]. - Alumina: Strong supply and weak demand, price under pressure, expected to fluctuate around the cost line [1]. - Zinc: Fluctuates in a range due to cost and inventory factors [1]. - Nickel: Supply remains tight, price fluctuates at a high level in the short term, affected by sector resonance [1]. - Stainless Steel: Futures rise significantly, attention to production and short - squeeze risks [1]. - Tin: Corrects due to macro sentiment, but has upward momentum due to supply vulnerability [1]. Precious Metals and New Energy - Precious Metals: Supported by geopolitical and trade uncertainties, silver may be weaker than gold [1]. - Platinum and Palladium: Fluctuate widely in the short term, long - platinum and short - palladium strategies can be considered in the medium - to - long term [1]. Industrial Silicon and New - Energy Vehicles - Industrial Silicon: Production changes in different regions, polysilicon and organic silicon production schedules decline [1]. - New - Energy Vehicles: Off - season, strong energy - storage demand, rush for exports [1]. Black Metals - Rebar: Price under pressure, single - side long positions leave the market, participate in cash - and - carry arbitrage [1]. - Iron Ore: Upward pressure is obvious, not recommended to chase long [1]. - Soda Ash: Follows glass, medium - term supply - demand is more relaxed, price under pressure [1]. - Coking Coal and Coke: Bearish, previous low - long strategy may change [1]. Agricultural Products - Palm Oil: Expected to fluctuate strongly [1]. - Soybean Oil: Recommended to be over - allocated [1]. - Rapeseed Oil: Observe due to complex factors [1]. - Cotton: "Having support but no driver", attention to future policies and conditions [1]. - Sugar: Global surplus, short - term fundamentals lack continuous drivers [1]. - Corn: Expected to fluctuate in the short term [1]. - Soybean: Expected to fluctuate weakly [1]. - Pulp: Observe cautiously due to market fluctuations [1]. - Log: Expected to fluctuate in the range of 760 - 790 yuan/m³ [1]. - Live Pig: Spot prices are stable, production capacity needs further release [1]. Energy and Chemicals - Fuel Oil: Affected by OPEC+ policies and geopolitical factors [1]. - Asphalt: Affected by multiple factors such as supply - demand and profit [1]. - BR Rubber: In a phased correction, affected by supply - demand and cost [1]. - PTA: Market has a sharp rise, supported by fundamentals and demand [1]. - MEG: Rebounds due to supply - side news, demand exceeds expectations [1]. - Short - Fiber: Price follows cost closely [1]. - Styrene: Futures price rebounds due to improved fundamentals [1]. - Urea: Limited upward space, supported by anti - involution and cost [1]. - PF: Under supply pressure, affected by geopolitical factors [1]. - PVC: Expected to trade based on fundamentals, price under pressure [1]. - LPG: Supported by import - gas costs, inventory situation changes [1]. Container Shipping - European route price expected to peak in mid - January, pre - holiday replenishment demand exists [1].

Core Viewpoint - The State Council's recent meeting emphasizes accelerating the cultivation of new growth points in service consumption, supporting the emergence of new business formats, models, and scenarios to enhance the quality of service supply and meet consumer needs [1][4]. Group 1: New Growth Points in Service Consumption - The shift in consumer behavior from product-centric to a balanced focus on both goods and services is being driven by rising living standards, unlocking the potential for service consumption [1][4]. - The integration of digital technology with the service industry is leading to the emergence of innovative service consumption formats, such as interactive robot stores in Shenzhen and experiential retail spaces in Beijing [2][3]. - Cross-industry integration is becoming a key direction for innovation in service consumption, with models like "agriculture + cultural tourism" and "manufacturing + services" creating new consumption growth points [3]. Group 2: Quality Service Supply - Various regions are innovating in consumption scenarios across cultural, tourism, entertainment, and sports sectors, with projections indicating double-digit growth in retail sales for tourism consulting, transportation, and leisure services by 2025 [4]. - The meeting highlighted the need to enhance the supply of quality services and address issues related to credit, standards, and safety management [4]. - Experts suggest focusing on digital service consumption, cultural tourism integration, silver economy services, green low-carbon services, and international consumption services as potential growth areas [4]. Group 3: Enhancing Consumer Motivation - The cultivation of new growth points in service consumption requires precise policy guidance and support, with the State Council advocating for the implementation of consumption-boosting actions [7]. - Collaborative efforts between central and local governments are leading to targeted policies that enhance service consumption, such as optimizing trade-in services and promoting regional cultural tourism [7]. - Recent policies aim to stimulate consumption in lower-tier markets, with initiatives to support county-level consumption and enhance consumer capacity through loans and subsidies [8].

Core Insights - The Chinese government plans to support the construction and upgrading of high-standard farmland, targeting 7.568 million acres by 2025, contributing to a cumulative total of over 1 billion acres [1] Group 1 - The agricultural technology progress contribution rate is expected to exceed 64% [1]