1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Corn: The corn market is in a state of shock. The futures price of the 2603 contract stabilized at the support of the 20 - day moving average, and the near - month 2601 contract continued to reduce positions with funds shifting to the March contract. The spot price in the Northeast is slightly weak, and the purchase and sales activity in the market is not high. Technically, the 3 - and 5 - month contracts face price pressure, and short - term technical adjustments are required. It is recommended to participate in short - term long positions with a light position, and the medium - term trend continues to face the pressure of the previous high on the weekly chart [2]. - Soybean Meal: CBOT soybeans fluctuated little due to weak export data and a slight downward adjustment of the Brazilian soybean production forecast by some institutions. The domestic protein meal continued to rebound, with a pattern of near - strong and far - weak. The increase of soybean meal exceeded that of rapeseed meal. There is news that the customs will extend the clearance time of imported soybeans, which drives the price of soybean meal up. The strategy is mainly short - term [2]. - Oils: BMD palm oil rose slightly, following the strength of the surrounding market. High - frequency data shows that the export volume of Malaysian palm oil from December 1 - 10 decreased by 15% month - on - month, but the yield increased by 6.87% month - on - month. The decline in the production reduction expectation restricted the increase of the Malaysian palm oil price. The US soybean oil declined, following the decline of crude oil. In the domestic market, the oils continued to recover, with rapeseed oil leading the rise. The terminal demand for oils is weak. The strategy is to sell call options and participate in the futures market short - term [2]. - Eggs: The egg futures fluctuated and adjusted. The supply is sufficient, which limits the rebound of the egg price. The short - term futures price fluctuates and adjusts. It is recommended to wait and see for future operation opportunities, and continuously pay attention to the impact of the breeding end's replenishment and elimination willingness on production capacity [2][3]. - Pigs: The futures price of pigs is weak in the near - term and strong in the long - term. The near - month contracts are affected by factors such as the spot price and pig diseases, and the price hits a new low. The 7 - and 9 - month contracts in the long - term have limited declines. The spot pig price is strong in the north and weak in the south. Technically, the long - term contracts of pigs show a relatively strong performance, and it is judged that the long - term contracts of pigs will continue to rebound with light - position long orders [3]. 3. Summary According to the Catalog Research Views - The report analyzes the market conditions of corn, soybean meal, oils, eggs, and pigs on Thursday, December 12, 2025, including futures price trends, spot price changes, and supply - demand situations, and gives corresponding investment strategies [2][3]. Market Information - The US 2025/2026 annual soybean export net sales are 69.6 tons, and the 2026/2027 annual soybean net sales are 0 tons [4]. - US private exporters reported selling 26.4 tons of soybeans to China and 18.6 tons of corn and 22.6 tons of soybeans to unknown destinations for delivery in the 2025/2026 year [4]. - The Brazilian Ministry of Agriculture predicts that the 2025/26 annual soybean production will reach 1.771236 billion tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.3%, and the sown area will reach 48.9356 million hectares, a year - on - year increase of 3.4% [4]. - The China National Grain Reserves Corporation will conduct central reserve frozen pork rotation and outbound auction transactions on December 15, 16, and 17, with 20,500 tons, 21,500 tons, and 4,500 tons respectively [5]. Variety Spreads - The report presents various variety spreads, including contract spreads (such as corn 1 - 5 spread, soybean meal 1 - 5 spread, etc.) and contract basis (such as corn basis, soybean basis, etc.) through multiple charts [6][7][8][14]

Industry Investment Ratings No information about industry investment ratings is provided in the reports. Core Views Oils and Fats - Palm oil may face downward pressure if it fails to hold above 4,100 ringgit, with support at 4,000 ringgit. In China, there is a risk of downward break - out for palm oil futures, with support around 8,000 yuan. - For soybean oil, the EIA has lowered its forecasts for renewable diesel production in 2025 and 2026. However, Fed rate cuts and the rebound of BMD palm oil support CBOT soybean oil. In China, the spot basis is shifting to the May contract, and the factory's soybean oil inventory is high but may decrease in Q1 2026. The basis of the January contract may decline slightly, while that of the May contract is supported [1]. Meal and Grains - U.S. soybeans lack trading highlights, with slow - growing Chinese demand and strong South American crop expectations. The market is not optimistic about medium - to - long - term U.S. soybean prices. - In China, the soybean meal supply is loose, but the market is speculating on longer soybean clearance times. The 1 - 5 positive spread has strengthened, and attention should be paid to its performance [2]. Livestock (Pigs) - There is some reluctance to sell in the market, and the spot price is stable. The southern pickling demand is increasing, but there are uncertainties in the December - January market due to potential pandemic impacts and secondary fattening. The overall supply pressure is large, and the price is hard to improve. The futures market is struggling to rise and has fallen in the past two days. Monitor the pandemic situation [4]. Sugar - ICE raw sugar futures are under pressure below 15 cents per pound. India's sugar production in Maharashtra is increasing. The overall raw sugar price is bearish. In China, the sugar - making process in Guangxi and Yunnan is accelerating, new sugar supply is increasing, and the market is weak. Domestic sugar prices are expected to fluctuate weakly [8][9]. Corn and Corn Starch - The price of corn in the northern port is rising slightly due to insufficient supply, while prices in the Northeast and North China are stable or weak. The demand side is cautious, with deep - processing and feed enterprises mainly making rigid purchases. The corn futures market is expected to fluctuate, and attention should be paid to the continuity of supply [10]. Eggs - The supply of eggs is relatively sufficient, with a slight decrease in the number of laying hens in November but still at a high level. The market is moving goods at a normal pace, but demand is weak. Egg prices are expected to fluctuate weakly with limited downside [14]. Cotton - ICE cotton futures fell due to weak U.S. export demand. In China, Zhengzhou cotton futures face increasing hedging pressure, and the spot basis is weakening, putting downward pressure on prices. However, the downstream demand for cotton is strong, limiting the downside. Attention should be paid to the 14,000 resistance level [16]. Summary by Related Catalogs Oils and Fats - **Soybean Oil**: On December 11, the spot price in Jiangsu was 8,600 yuan, up 0.58% from the previous day. The futures price of Y2605 was 8,268 yuan, up 0.56%. The basis was 328 yuan, and the warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 25,964 [1]. - **Palm Oil**: The spot price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong was 8,680 yuan on December 11, up 0.46%. The futures price of P2605 was 8,656 yuan, up 1.33%. The basis was - 75.51%. The import cost was 9,102.8 yuan, and the import profit was - 447 yuan [1]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: The spot price of third - grade rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was 10,000 yuan on December 11, up 3.09%. The futures price of OI601 was 9,443 yuan, up 1.65%. The basis was 401 yuan, and the warehouse receipts were 3,490 [1]. Meal and Grains - **Soybean Meal**: The spot price in Jiangsu was 3,060 yuan on December 11, up 0.66%. The futures price of M2605 was 2,750 yuan, down 0.15%. The basis was 310 yuan, and the warehouse receipts were 23,830 [2]. - **Rapeseed Meal**: The spot price in Jiangsu was 2,410 yuan on December 11, up 1.26%. The futures price of RM2605 was 2,323 yuan, down 0.26%. The basis was 87 yuan, and the warehouse receipts were 0 [2]. - **Soybeans**: The spot price of Harbin soybeans was 3,940 yuan, unchanged. The futures price of the main soybean contract was 4,173 yuan, up 0.29%. The basis was - 233 yuan [2]. Livestock (Pigs) - **Futures Market**: On December 11, the price of the main contract of live pigs (2605) was 11,820 yuan/ton, down 0.17%. The price of the 2603 contract was 11,220 yuan/ton, down 0.80%. The 3 - 5 spread was - 600 yuan, down 13.21%. The main contract's open interest was 154,716, up 3.54%, and the warehouse receipts were 523, up 40.21% [4]. - **Spot Market**: The spot prices in different regions were stable or slightly increased. For example, the price in Henan was 11,360 yuan/ton, up 60 yuan. The slaughter volume of sample slaughterhouses increased by 0.61%, and the white - strip price decreased by 0.99%. The number of fertile sows decreased by 1.12% month - on - month [4]. Sugar - **Futures Market**: On December 11, the price of the sugar 2601 contract was 5,358 yuan/ton, up 0.56%. The price of the 2605 contract was 5,245 yuan/ton, up 0.38%. The ICE raw sugar main contract was 14.86 cents per pound, down 0.27%. The 1 - 5 spread was 113 yuan/ton, up 9.71%. The main contract's open interest was 391,467, up 62.10%, and the warehouse receipts were 611, up 54.29% [8]. - **Spot Market**: The spot price in Kunming and Nanning was stable. The Nanning basis was 115 yuan, down 14.81%, and the Kunming basis was 75 yuan, down 21.05%. The imported sugar price from Brazil (in - quota) was 4,100 yuan/ton, up 2.07%, and (out - of - quota) was 5,195 yuan/ton, up 2.12% [8]. - **Industry Data**: The national sugar production increased by 12.03% year - on - year, sales increased by 9.17%, the national sales ratio decreased by 2.60%, and the industrial inventory decreased by 41.20%. The sugar import volume increased by 38.89% [8]. Corn and Corn Starch - **Corn**: On December 11, the price of the corn 2601 contract was 2,243 yuan/ton, up 0.09%. The basis was 57 yuan, up 16.33%. The 1 - 5 spread was - 24 yuan, unchanged. The import profit was 287 yuan, down 3.43%. The number of trucks at Shandong deep - processing enterprises in the morning increased by 11.10%, and the open interest was 2,216,177, up 0.38% [10]. - **Corn Starch**: The price of the corn starch 2601 contract was 2,523 yuan/ton, down 0.36%. The basis was 67 yuan, up 15.52%. The 1 - 5 spread was - 53 yuan, down 1.92%. The starch - corn 01 spread was 280 yuan, down 3.78%. The Shandong starch profit was 19 yuan, down 26.92%, and the open interest was 297,821, down 0.43% [10]. Eggs - **Futures Market**: On December 11, the price of the egg 01 contract was 3,144 yuan/500KG, down 0.29%. The price of the 02 contract was 2,968 yuan/500KG, down 0.40%. The 1 - 2 spread was 176 yuan, up 1.73%. The basis was - 57 yuan/500KG, up 33.37% [14]. - **Spot Market**: The egg - producing area price was 3.09 yuan per catty, up 0.64%. The price of egg - laying chicks was 2.85 yuan per chick, up 5.56%. The price of culled chickens was 3.86 yuan per catty, up 1.58%. The egg - feed ratio was 2.40, up 3.90%, and the breeding profit was - 22.62 yuan per chick, up 20.35% [14]. Cotton - **Futures Market**: On December 11, the price of the cotton 2605 contract was 13,850 yuan/ton, up 0.65%. The price of the 2601 contract was 13,860 yuan/ton, up 0.58%. The ICE cotton main contract was 64.00 cents per pound, down 0.19%. The 5 - 1 spread was - 10 yuan/ton, up 50.00%. The main contract's open interest was 460,016, down 3.02%, and the warehouse receipts were 2,967, down 0.10% [16]. - **Spot Market**: The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B cotton was 14,835 yuan/ton, up 0.03%. The CC Index: 3128B was 15,013 yuan/ton, up 0.06%. The FC Index:M: 1% was 12,898 yuan/ton, up 0.40%. The 3128B - 01 contract spread was 1,070 yuan/ton, down 7.94%, and the 3128B - 05 contract spread was 975 yuan/ton, down 7.14% [16]. - **Industry Data**: The inventory in Xinjiang increased by 28.7%, the industrial inventory increased by 0.9%, the import volume decreased by 10.0%, and the cotton shipment volume out of Xinjiang increased by 22.6%. The textile and clothing retail and export data showed growth [16].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment ratings for cotton, sugar, and pulp are all neutral [3][6][9] Core Viewpoints - For cotton, short - term Zhengzhou cotton is expected to continue range - bound oscillations. In the long - term, after seasonal pressure, cotton prices can be viewed optimistically due to increased domestic cotton consumption and low expected imports [3] - For sugar, the fundamental driving force is downward, but the current low valuation and sugar mills' willingness to support prices limit the short - term decline of Zhengzhou sugar. However, the possibility of new lows cannot be ruled out [6] - For pulp, recent pulp futures prices have risen strongly due to the digestion of previous negative factors, short - covering, and overseas supply disruptions. But the lack of substantial improvement in supply - demand may limit further price increases [9] Summary by Related Catalogs Cotton Market News and Key Data - Futures: The closing price of cotton 2601 contract was 13,860 yuan/ton, up 80 yuan/ton (+0.58%) from the previous day. Spot: The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B cotton was 14,835 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan/ton, with a spot basis of CF01 + 975, down 75 from the previous day; the national average price was 15,013 yuan/ton, up 9 yuan/ton, with a spot basis of CF01 + 1153, down 71 from the previous day [1] - In Pakistan, the demand of local yarn mills is weak, and the lint price is range - bound. The ginning mills are reluctant to sell high - grade inventory, and some low - grade resources offer opportunities for yarn mills to replenish stocks. The yarn mills face heavy operating pressure and squeezed profits. The 2025/26 annual spot price of the Karachi Cotton Association (KCA) on the 10th was stable at 15,500 rupees/mound [1] Market Analysis - Internationally, the concentrated listing of new cotton in the Northern Hemisphere brings short - term supply pressure, and weak global textile consumption will keep ICE US cotton under pressure. In the long - term, US cotton is in a low - valuation range with limited downward space but unclear upward drivers. Domestically, the 2025/26 domestic cotton is expected to increase in production. With the harvest nearing completion in Xinjiang, the cotton output forecast has risen again. In the short - term, the supply is abundant, and Zhengzhou cotton will be suppressed by hedging orders. The downstream demand is weak in the off - season, but improved spinning profits and manageable finished - product inventory limit the downward space of cotton prices [2] Strategy - Maintain a neutral stance. Short - term Zhengzhou cotton is expected to oscillate within a range. In the long - term, due to expanded downstream production capacity and increased domestic cotton consumption, and low expected imports, the supply - demand situation in the new year is not expected to be too loose. Pay attention to the changes in the cotton target price policy next year [3] Sugar Market News and Key Data - Futures: The closing price of sugar 2605 contract was 5,245 yuan/ton, down 83 yuan/ton (-1.56%) from the previous day. Spot: The spot price of sugar in Nanning, Guangxi was 5,370 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, with a spot basis of SR05 + 125, up 83 from the previous day; the spot price in Kunming, Yunnan was 5,340 yuan/ton, unchanged, with a spot basis of SR05 + 95, up 83 from the previous day [4] - According to Williams, as of the week of December 10, the number of ships waiting to load sugar at Brazilian ports decreased from 53 to 44. The quantity of sugar waiting to be loaded was 1.5131 million tons, down 17.14% from the previous week. The quantity of high - grade raw sugar (VHP) decreased by 21.3%, and the quantity of sugar waiting to be exported at Santos Port decreased by 8.97%, and at Paranaguá Port decreased by 47.77% [4] Market Analysis - For raw sugar, the global bumper harvest suppresses the market, but the negative factors are mostly reflected in the price. There is limited short - term downward space, and no sign of a reversal in the short - to - medium term. For Zhengzhou sugar, domestic sugar production is expected to increase for the third year. The sugar mills in Guangxi have started crushing, and the supply is seasonally increasing. The import profit from Brazil is high, and the import volume from July to October was large. The control of syrup has tightened, but the import reduction in October was lower than expected [5] Strategy - Maintain a neutral stance. The fundamental driving force is downward, but the low valuation and sugar mills' willingness to support prices limit the short - term decline of Zhengzhou sugar. Attention should be paid to the impact of capital on the market [6] Pulp Market News and Key Data - Futures: The closing price of pulp 2605 contract was 5,586 yuan/ton, up 150 yuan/ton (+2.76%) from the previous day. Spot: The spot price of Chilean Silver Star softwood pulp in Shandong was 5,590 yuan/ton, up 90 yuan/ton, with a spot basis of SP05 + 4, down 60 from the previous day; the spot price of Russian softwood pulp (U - needle and B - needle) was 5,115 yuan/ton, up 110 yuan/ton, with a spot basis of SP05 - 471, down 40 from the previous day [6] - The imported wood pulp spot market was strong. The futures price rose, and traders raised prices to improve profits. The downstream procurement was rational, and the trading volume was limited. The prices of imported softwood pulp in some regions rose by 50 - 120 yuan/ton, and those of imported hardwood pulp rose by 50 - 100 yuan/ton. The trading of imported natural pulp and chemical mechanical pulp was flat, and the prices were stable [7] Market Analysis - On the supply side, there are continuous news of overseas pulp mills' shutdowns and overhauls. Domtar permanently closed the Crofton paper mill with an annual production of 380,000 tons of Lion brand bleached softwood pulp, and Finns Group's Rauma pulp mill with a capacity of 650,000 tons of softwood pulp will be shut down temporarily. On the demand side, the October European port wood pulp inventory decreased, indicating improved demand. In China, although there is a large amount of finished paper production capacity, the terminal demand is insufficient, the paper mills' operating rate is low, and the inventory in domestic ports is at a historical high [8] Strategy - Maintain a neutral stance. The recent strong rise in pulp futures prices is due to the digestion of previous negative factors, short - covering, and overseas supply disruptions. However, the lack of substantial improvement in supply - demand may limit further price increases. Attention should be paid to the impact of the remaining B - needle warehouse receipts on the market [9]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2) Core View of the Report - CBOT soybean futures rose for the second consecutive trading day on December 11, 2025, mainly due to active technical buying, U.S. soybean sales to China, and price support from neighboring corn and wheat futures [1][3]. - As of the week ending November 13, 2025, the net sales volume of U.S. soybeans for the 2025/26 marketing year was 695,598 tons, close to the lower limit of market expectations. Traders continued to focus on China's purchasing situation [3]. - The trend strength of soybean meal is +1, indicating a relatively strong trend, while the trend strength of soybean No. 1 is 0, indicating a neutral trend [3]. 3) Summary by Related Catalogs [Fundamental Tracking] - **Futures Prices**: DCE soybean meal 2605 closed at 2750 yuan/ton during the day session and 2770 yuan/ton during the night session, with a daily increase of 0 (+0.00%) and a night - session increase of 16 (+0.58%); DCE soybean No. 1 2601 closed at 4173 yuan/ton during the day session and 4148 yuan/ton during the night session, with a decrease of 19 (-0.46%). CBOT soybean 01 closed at 1093.75 cents per bushel, up 1.75 (+0.16%); CBOT soybean meal 01 closed at 302.2 dollars per short ton, up 1.3 (+0.43%) [1]. - **Spot Basis**: The spot basis of soybean meal in different regions varied. For example, in Shandong, the basis for 12 - January was M2601 + 30/+60, up 20 to 50 compared to the previous day; in Zhangjiagang Dafu, the price was 3040 - 3090 yuan/ton [1]. - **Industrial Data**: The trading volume of soybean meal was 12.85 million tons per day, compared with 14.67 million tons per day in the previous trading day. The inventory was 104.55 million tons per week, compared with 107.34 million tons per week in the previous week [1]. [Macroeconomic and Industry News] - According to Beijing Derunlin on December 12, 2025, CBOT soybean futures rose on December 11 due to active technical buying, U.S. soybean sales to China, and price support from neighboring corn and wheat futures [1][3]. - As of the week ending November 13, 2025, the net sales volume of U.S. soybeans for the 2025/26 marketing year was 695,598 tons, compared with 510,554 tons in the previous week. The U.S. Department of Agriculture confirmed that private exporters reported sales of 26.4 million tons of U.S. soybeans to China and 22.6 million tons to unknown destinations for delivery in the 2025/26 marketing year [3]. [Trend Strength] - The trend strength of soybean meal is +1, and the trend strength of soybean No. 1 is 0, mainly referring to the price fluctuations of the main - contract futures during the day session on the reporting day [3].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Report's Core View - The report provides short - term, medium - term, and intraday views on soybean meal, soybean oil, and palm oil futures, with the overall market showing a mixed pattern of "near - strong and far - weak" in the soybean market and complex driving factors for each variety. [5][6][7] 3. Summary by Variety 3.1 Soybean Meal (M) - **View**: Short - term and intraday view is "oscillating weakly", medium - term view is "oscillating". The overall reference view is "oscillating weakly". [5][6] - **Core Logic**: The soybean market shows a "near - strong and far - weak" pattern due to the game between tight spot and weak expectations. US soybeans are in low - level oscillation, and Argentina's tariff reduction squeezes the US soybean market share. With the expected high - yield in Brazil, the support for far - month import costs declines. In the domestic market, the oil mill operating rate drops, and soybean auctions have high - price transactions, indicating short - term replenishment demand. In December, the arrival of imported soybeans may reach 9.5 million tons, and the state reserve continues to sell. The 05 contract corresponds to the period of concentrated soybean listing in South America, and the basis has weakened in advance. [5] 3.2 Soybean Oil (Y) - **View**: Short - term, intraday, and reference view is "oscillating strongly", medium - term view is "oscillating". [6][7] - **Core Logic**: The US soybean oil price needs to pay attention to the final implementation of the US biofuel policy, the implementation progress of Brazil's blending plan, and the evolution of the global soybean - palm oil price difference. The domestic soybean oil is still in the "weak reality" stage, and the de - stocking process of high inventory determines the price center. The contradiction between varieties is intensifying, and the domestic - foreign price difference of soybean oil is inverted. The wide - range oscillation range of the short - term soybean oil market is difficult to break. [7] 3.3 Palm Oil (P) - **View**: Short - term, intraday, and reference view is "oscillating strongly", medium - term view is "oscillating". [6][8] - **Core Logic**: The palm oil market shows a pulse - type rebound rather than a trend reversal, driven by short - covering and technical repair. However, palm oil has limited follow - up strength. The export decline in Malaysia in early December has widened, and production has increased month - on - month. The inventory pressure still affects the price. In the future, attention should be paid to Indonesia's biodiesel policy and the procurement rhythm of major importing countries. [8]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Report's Core View - Palm oil production reduction is not clear, and the rebound height is limited [1] - The driving force for US soybeans is insufficient, and soybean oil will mainly fluctuate [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Prices and Fluctuations**: Palm oil's day - session closed at 8,656 yuan/ton with a 1.33% increase, and night - session at 8,546 yuan/ton with a - 1.27% decrease; soybean oil's day - session closed at 8,268 yuan/ton with a 0.56% increase, and night - session at 8,000 yuan/ton with a - 3.24% decrease; rapeseed oil's day - session closed at 9,599 yuan/ton with a 1.65% increase, and night - session at 9,390 yuan/ton with a - 2.18% decrease. Malaysian palm oil's day - session closed at 4,064 ringgit/ton with a 0.07% increase, and night - session at 4,040 ringgit/ton with a - 0.57% decrease. CBOT soybean oil closed at 51.32 cents/pound with a - 0.56% decrease [1] - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: Palm oil's trading volume decreased by 220,676 lots to 180,995 lots, and open interest decreased by 21,841 lots to 143,530 lots; soybean oil's trading volume decreased by 28,218 lots to 101,511 lots, and open interest decreased by 10,246 lots to 203,342 lots; rapeseed oil's trading volume increased by 43,222 lots to 203,904 lots, and open interest decreased by 14,228 lots to 75,900 lots [1] - **Spot Prices and Changes**: Palm oil in Guangdong was 8,680 yuan/ton with a 40 - yuan increase; first - grade soybean oil in Guangdong was 8,610 yuan/ton with a 50 - yuan increase; fourth - grade imported rapeseed oil in Guangxi was 10,170 yuan/ton with a 300 - yuan increase; Malaysian palm oil FOB was 1,030 dollars/ton with a 5 - dollar decrease [1] - **Basis**: Palm oil basis in Guangdong was 24 yuan/ton; soybean oil basis in Guangdong was 342 yuan/ton; rapeseed oil basis in Guangxi was 571 yuan/ton [1] - **Price Spreads**: Rapeseed - palm oil futures spread was 664 yuan/ton (previous two - day: 915 yuan/ton); soybean - palm oil futures spread was - 606 yuan/ton (previous two - day: - 528 yuan/ton); palm oil 1 - 5 spread was 14 yuan/ton (unchanged); soybean oil 1 - 5 spread was 232 yuan/ton (previous two - day: 222 yuan/ton); rapeseed oil 1 - 5 spread was 293 yuan/ton (previous two - day: 290 yuan/ton) [1] 3.2 Macro and Industry News - SPPOMA: From December 1 - 10, 2025, Malaysian palm oil yield per unit area increased by 7.24% month - on - month, oil extraction rate decreased by 0.07% month - on - month, and production increased by 6.87% month - on - month [2] - CIMB Securities: Malaysia's December palm oil inventory is expected to increase by 3.0% month - on - month to 2.93 million tons, exports to increase moderately by 2.0% month - on - month, and production to decrease by 11% month - on - month to 1.72 million tons [3][4] - USDA: Private exporters reported selling 264,000 tons of soybeans to China and 226,000 tons to unknown destinations for delivery in 2025/2026 [4] - CONAB: Brazil's 2025/26 soybean production is expected to reach 177.1236 million tons, a 3.3% increase year - on - year (5.6431 million tons increase); the sowing area is expected to reach 48.9356 million hectares, a 3.4% increase year - on - year (1.5895 million hectares increase) [4] - IBGE: Brazil's 2025 soybean planting area is expected to be 47.691363 million hectares, unchanged from last month's estimate and a 3.6% increase from last year; the production is estimated to be 165.957783 million tons, unchanged from last month's estimate and a 14.5% increase from last year. Brazil's 2026 agricultural production is estimated to be 218.017021 million tons, a 0.8% increase from 2025. Brazil's 2026 soybean production is estimated to be 167.554994 million tons, a 1.0% increase from 2025 [5] 3.3 Trend Intensity - Palm oil trend intensity: 0; soybean oil trend intensity: 0. The trend intensity ranges from - 2 to 2, with - 2 being most bearish and 2 being most bullish [6]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints - Palm oil: The reduction in production is not clear, and the rebound height is limited [2]. - Soybean oil: There is insufficient drive from US soybeans, and soybean oil will mainly fluctuate [2]. - Soybean meal: US soybeans closed higher, and Dalian soybean meal will fluctuate strongly [2]. - Soybean: It will adjust and fluctuate [2]. - Corn: Attention should be paid to the spot market [2]. - Sugar: It will fluctuate within a range [2]. - Cotton: It will fluctuate strongly, and attention should be paid to downstream demand [2]. - Eggs: It will fluctuate and adjust [2]. - Live pigs: The price increase due to cooling is less than expected, and the number of warehouse receipts has increased [2]. - Peanuts: Attention should be paid to the purchases of oil mills [2]. Summary by Related Catalogs Palm Oil and Soybean Oil - **Fundamental Data**: Palm oil's closing price (day session) was 8,656 yuan/ton with a 1.33% increase, and (night session) was 8,546 yuan/ton with a -1.27% decrease; soybean oil's closing price (day session) was 8,268 yuan/ton with a 0.56% increase, and (night session) was 8,000 yuan/ton with a -3.24% decrease [4]. - **Macro and Industry News**: From December 1 - 10, 2025, Malaysia's palm oil yield per unit area increased by 7.24% month - on - month, the oil extraction rate decreased by 0.07% month - on - month, and the production increased by 6.87% month - on - month. Malaysia's December palm oil inventory is expected to increase by 3.0% month - on - month to 2.93 million tons, and exports are expected to increase by 2.0% month - on - month [5][7]. - **Trend Intensity**: Palm oil trend intensity is 0; soybean oil trend intensity is 0 [9]. Soybean Meal and Soybean - **Fundamental Data**: DCE soybean meal 2605's closing price (day session) was 2,750 yuan/ton, and (night session) was 2,770 yuan/ton with a +0.58% increase; DCE soybean 2601's closing price (day session) was 4,173 yuan/ton, and (night session) was 4,148 yuan/ton with a -0.46% decrease [10]. - **Macro and Industry News**: On December 11, CBOT soybeans rose due to sales to China and active technical buying. As of November 13, 2025, the net sales volume of US soybeans in the 2025/26 season was 695,598 tons [10][12]. - **Trend Intensity**: Soybean meal trend intensity is +1; soybean trend intensity is 0 [12]. Corn - **Fundamental Data**: C2601's closing price (day session) was 2,243 yuan/ton with a 0.54% increase, and (night session) was 2,239 yuan/ton with a -0.18% decrease; C2603's closing price (day session) was 2,236 yuan/ton with a 0.49% increase, and (night session) was 2,229 yuan/ton with a -0.31% decrease [14]. - **Macro and Industry News**: Northern corn bulk shipping port prices were basically flat, Guangdong Shekou's bulk shipping price decreased by 10 yuan/ton, and container price increased slightly [15]. - **Trend Intensity**: Corn trend intensity is 0 [16]. Sugar - **Fundamental Data**: The raw sugar price was 14.91 cents/pound, the mainstream spot price was 5,420 yuan/ton, and the futures main contract price was 5,245 yuan/ton [17]. - **Macro and Industry News**: As of the end of November, the sugar production in the 25/26 season in India increased by 49.8% year - on - year, and in Brazil in the second half of November, it increased by 9% year - on - year. China imported 750,000 tons of sugar in October [17]. - **Trend Intensity**: Sugar trend intensity is 0 [20]. Cotton - **Fundamental Data**: CF2601's closing price (day session) was 13,860 yuan/ton with a 0.58% increase, and (night session) was 13,825 yuan/ton with a -0.25% decrease; CY2603's closing price (day session) was 20,005 yuan/ton with a 0.20% increase, and (night session) was 19,985 yuan/ton with a -0.10% decrease [22]. - **Macro and Industry News**: Cotton spot trading slightly recovered, cotton yarn prices were stable, and downstream orders were mainly short and small. ICE cotton futures continued to fluctuate at a low level [23]. - **Trend Intensity**: Cotton trend intensity is 0 [26]. Eggs - **Fundamental Data**: Egg 2601's closing price was 3,144 yuan/500 kg with a -0.03% decrease, and Egg 2602's closing price was 2,968 yuan/500 kg with a -0.44% decrease [28]. - **Trend Intensity**: Egg trend intensity is 0 [28]. Live Pigs - **Fundamental Data**: The Henan spot price was 11,430 yuan/ton, the Sichuan spot price was 11,900 yuan/ton, and the Guangdong spot price was 12,210 yuan/ton. The futures prices of live pigs 2601, 2603, and 2605 were 11,440 yuan/ton, 11,220 yuan/ton, and 11,820 yuan/ton respectively [30]. - **Market Information**: Yunnan Shennong, Guizhou Fuyuan, Dekang, and Yangxiang registered warehouse receipts from December 4 - 11 [31]. - **Trend Intensity**: Live pig trend intensity is -1 [32]. Peanuts - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of PK601 was 8,082 yuan/ton with a -0.17% decrease, and the closing price of PK603 was 8,050 yuan/ton with a -0.45% decrease [34]. - **Spot Market Focus**: In Henan, Nanyang and Kaifeng's peanut prices were stable with low supply and demand. In Jilin and Liaoning, 308 peanut prices were stable with low supply. In Shandong, prices were stable with quality - based transactions [35]. - **Trend Intensity**: Peanut trend intensity is 0 [36].

农产品早报 2025-12-12 五矿期货农产品早报 从业资格号：F03116327 交易咨询号：Z0019233 邮箱:yangzeyuan@wkqh.cn 五矿期货农产品团队 从业资格号：F0273729 交易咨询号：Z0002942 邮箱：wangja@wkqh.cn 从业资格号：F03114441 交易咨询号：Z0022498 电话：028-86133280 邮箱：sxwei@wkqh.cn 王俊 组长、生鲜品研究员 隔夜 CBOT 大豆小幅收涨，受出口需求支撑。周四国内豆粕现货涨 30 元，华东报 3040 元/吨，豆粕成交 一般、提货较好，消息面称通关延迟。MYSTEEL 预计本周油厂大豆压榨量为 205.583 万吨，上周压榨大 豆 221.16 万吨，上周饲企库存天数为 8.49 天环比上升 0.32 天，上周国内大豆、豆粕均去库，因到港量 及压榨量环比下滑，国内豆粕表需下滑程度相对较小。 杨泽元 白糖、棉花研究员 巴西主要种植区未来两周预报降雨偏多，大豆种植率已达 94%。然而阿根廷主产区预计降雨量持续较少， 产区还未达到一帆风顺。全球大豆预测年度库销比同比仍较高，尚不足以产生 CBOT 大 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided in the report regarding the industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints of the Report The agricultural products sector shows mixed trends. Rapeseed oil has rebounded strongly, cotton has broken through and moved upward, while hog prices remain weak. Different varieties have different influencing factors and market outlooks [1]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Agricultural Products Sector Overview - Rapeseed oil has rebounded strongly due to customs inspections on non - GMO rapeseed oil imports and potential overseas demand growth. Cotton has broken through and moved upward because of strong downstream demand. Hog prices are weak as supply growth exceeds demand growth [1]. 2. Variety Strategy Tracking (1) Rapeseed Oil: Strong Rise - Focus: The rapeseed oil led the overall rise in the oil and fat sector. The main 2605 contract rebounded strongly, driven by customs inspections on non - GMO rapeseed oil imports and expected overseas demand growth. - Reasons: Customs inspections on non - GMO rapeseed oil imports led to some port rejections, boosting bullish sentiment. Technical oversold conditions caused a rebound. Germany's new bill may increase rapeseed oil demand. Domestic rapeseed oil inventory decreased, with the inventory at 40.6 million tons at the end of the 49th week, a 4.47% week - on - week decline. Palm oil and soybean oil also rebounded [2]. - Strategy: The 2605 contract of rapeseed oil has strengthened technically. Look for support levels to go long with a light position. Close short positions in palm oil and conduct short - term trading [2]. (2) Soybean Meal: Near - term Strong, Long - term Weak - Focus: Soybean meal contracts show a pattern of near - term strength and long - term weakness. The January contract rose due to stronger raw materials, while the 2605 contract remained weak. - Reasons: Abundant domestic imported soybeans. Rumors of extended customs clearance time for imported soybeans drove up the price of soybean No. 2 futures and near - term soybean meal contracts. The 2605 contract is under pressure as it corresponds to the peak period of South American soybean imports next year [3]. - Strategy: The 2605 contract of soybean meal is technically weak. Continue to hold short positions with a light position [3]. (3) Hogs: Weak Downward - Focus: The main 2603 contract of hogs is moving downward weakly due to abundant supply. - Reasons: High hog inventory, scale pig enterprises' year - end sales push, and concentrated出栏 of second - fattened and back - pressured hogs lead to sufficient supply. Although terminal consumption such as southern bacon - making and northern sausage - making increases, the increase in consumption is less than the increase in supply [6]. - Strategy: The 2603 contract of hogs is weak. Enter short positions for the short - term and set stop - losses [6]. (4) Eggs: Near - term Weak, Long - term Strong - Focus: The main 2603 contract of eggs fluctuates narrowly, and the weak trend remains unchanged. - Reasons: High laying - hen inventory leads to high supply pressure. Although market demand increases near the end of the year, the latest data shows a 0.70% week - on - week decline in old - hen出栏 as of December 4. There are still uncertainties in capacity reduction [7][9]. - Strategy: The 2603 contract of eggs is technically weak. Short with a light position [9]. (5) Sugar: Oscillating Downward - Focus: The main 2605 contract of Zhengzhou sugar oscillates at a low level due to the supply pressure of new sugar. - Reasons: Seasonal supply pressure of sugar is high as 64 sugar mills in Guangxi and Yunnan have started crushing. Although end - of - year stocking demand is approaching, it limits the downward space of sugar prices [10]. - Strategy: The 2605 contract of sugar is trading sideways at a low level. Close short positions and conduct short - term trading [10]. (6) Cotton: Breaking Upward - Focus: The main 2605 contract of cotton has broken through and moved upward, supported by demand resilience. - Reasons: China's cotton harvesting is almost finished. As of December 4, the national cotton sales rate is 37.3%, a 21.9 - percentage - point year - on - year increase, indicating strong downstream consumption. Improved Sino - US economic and trade relations are beneficial for cotton textile exports. Xinjiang textile enterprises have high operating rates and stable profits, with year - end restocking needs [12]. - Strategy: The 2605 contract of cotton has opened up upward space. Go long on dips [12].

Group 1: Investment Ratings - All three industries (cotton, sugar, and pulp) are rated neutral [3][6][9] Group 2: Core Views - **Cotton**: In the short - term, Zhengzhou cotton is expected to continue range - bound. In the long - term, with increased domestic cotton consumption and low expected imports, cotton prices are optimistic after seasonal pressure. Attention should be paid to the target price policy for next year's cotton [3] - **Sugar**: The fundamental driving force is downward, but the current valuation is low. At the beginning of the sugar - making season, sugar mills have the intention to support prices. The short - term decline of Zhengzhou sugar is limited, but the impact of capital on the market should be watched [6] - **Pulp**: Due to the digestion of previous negative factors, the pulp futures price has risen strongly recently, but the lack of substantial improvement in supply - demand may limit its upward space. The impact of the remaining Russian needle warehouse receipts on the market should be noted [9] Group 3: Summary of Cotton Market News and Key Data - Futures: The closing price of cotton contract 2601 yesterday was 13,780 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan/ton (+0.29%) from the previous day. Spot: The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B cotton was 14,830 yuan/ton, down 13 yuan/ton; the national average price was 15,004 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan/ton. The USDA's December report shows a slight decrease in global cotton production and consumption in the 2025/26 season, and a slight increase in ending inventory [1] Market Analysis - Internationally, the concentrated listing of new cotton in the Northern Hemisphere has brought supply pressure, and global textile consumption is weak, so ICE US cotton is under pressure in the short - term. In the long - term, US cotton is in a low - valuation range. Domestically, cotton production in the 2025/26 season is expected to increase. With the end of cotton harvesting in Xinjiang, supply is abundant in the short - term. The downstream demand is weak, but the spinning profit has improved and inventory pressure is acceptable [2] Group 4: Summary of Sugar Market News and Key Data - Futures: The closing price of sugar contract 2601 yesterday was 5328 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan/ton (-0.28%). Spot: The sugar price in Nanning, Guangxi was 5370 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan/ton; in Kunming, Yunnan it was 5340 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan/ton. As of now, 64 sugar mills in Guangxi have started production in the 2025/26 season, 7 less than the same period last year [3] Market Analysis - The global sugar harvest has suppressed the raw sugar market, but the short - term decline is limited. There is no sign of a reversal. Domestically, sugar production is expected to increase for the third year. Sugar mills in Guangxi have started production, and supply is increasing seasonally. The import profit from Brazil is high, and the supply pressure is high [4] Group 5: Summary of Pulp Market News and Key Data - Futures: The closing price of pulp contract 2605 yesterday was 5436 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton (+0.93%). Spot: The price of Chilean Silver Star softwood pulp in Shandong was 5500 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Russian softwood pulp was 5005 yuan/ton, unchanged. The import wood pulp spot market is stable, with individual price fluctuations [7] Market Analysis - Supply: Overseas pulp mills are shutting down for maintenance. Domtar has permanently closed a paper mill, and Finnforest has temporarily shut down a pulp mill. Demand: European port pulp inventories have decreased in October, but in China, terminal demand is insufficient, paper mills' operating rates are low, and port inventories are at a historical high [8]