Group 1 - The article discusses the impact of perfect weather on the August soybean pod-setting period in the U.S. [1] - U.S. soybean futures are experiencing a downward trend, indicating a potential opening of a bearish channel [1] - U.S. corn prices have dropped to a two-week low, raising questions about whether funds are betting on changing weather conditions or a surge in demand [1] Group 2 - Funds have reduced their short positions for three consecutive weeks, suggesting a shift in market sentiment [1]

Core Insights - U.S. agricultural futures are under pressure across the board due to disappointing demand and exports, alongside a favorable soybean harvest outlook [1] - Argentina has implemented significant tax cuts, which may impact market dynamics and competition in agricultural exports [1] - The market is seeking new support levels amid these developments, indicating potential volatility ahead [1] Group 1 - U.S. agricultural futures are facing downward pressure, with a notable impact on soybean prices [1] - Argentina's recent tax cuts are seen as a strategic move that could alter the competitive landscape for agricultural exports [1] - The anticipated soybean harvest in the U.S. is expected to be robust, but demand and export figures are falling short of expectations [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating The provided content does not mention the report industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report Soft Commodity Sector - **Sugar**: Concerns about Brazil's new sugar - cane crushing season supply and increased demand from the US, Pakistan, etc., may boost the raw sugar futures price, which is expected to remain volatile. In the Chinese market, the strong macro and commodity sentiment boosts the sentiment of going long on Zhengzhou sugar futures. The domestic sugar sales progress is fast, and the spot price is relatively firm, but the import pressure is increasing, and the futures price faces certain pressure [4]. - **Pulp**: The re - inflation expectation driven by anti - involution has led to the rise of low - priced commodities, and pulp has also risen. The fundamentals of the pulp and paper industry have changed little. The supply of hardwood pulp and the finished paper market still drag down the pulp futures. The upward space needs to track the market sentiment [6]. - **Cotton**: Globally, the new - season cotton has changed from a slight destocking to a slight stocking, which suppresses the market. However, factors such as the decrease in the US planting area and the slow progress of planting in India provide potential support. In the Chinese market, it is a game between the expectation of tightened supply and weak downstream consumption, and the futures price enters a shock period [8]. Fresh Fruit and Vegetable Sector - **Apple**: The apple futures price continues to fluctuate at a high level. The reasons for the recent rise are the strong overall commodity sentiment, the drive of the jujube market, and its own fundamentals. The low inventory of the old season, the slight reduction in production of the new season, and the year - on - year increase in the opening price of early - maturing apples support the price. The later price trend depends on the production, quality, and harvest progress of the new - season apples [9]. - **Jujube**: The jujube futures price fluctuates widely. The spot inventory depletion speed is slow, and the consumption is in the off - season. The new - season fruit listing substitutes the jujube consumption. Attention should be paid to the impact of the weather on the fruit setting of the new - season jujube trees [10]. 3. Summary According to the Directory First Part: Sector Strategy Recommendation | Variety | Recommended Strategy | Main Logic | Support Range | Pressure Range | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Apple 2510 | Pay attention to short - selling opportunities | The initial production forecast is basically finalized, and the opening price of early - maturing apples has risen slightly year - on - year, with limited increase. The overall futures price is expected to remain within a range | 7300 - 7350 | 8000 - 8100 | | Jujube 2601 | Go long on dips | The influence of weather factors increases | 9000 - 9300 | 104400 - 11500 | | Sugar 2509 | Gradually reduce long positions on rallies | The rebound of the raw sugar futures price boosts the sentiment of the Zhengzhou sugar market. The futures price fluctuates strongly, but the upward space is relatively limited | 5790 - 5810 | 5900 - 5920 | | Pulp 2507 | Short - sellers reduce positions on dips | The improvement of the commodity market sentiment drives the pulp to rebound. However, there is no news of production cuts in the pulp and paper industry, and the peak season of finished paper demand has not arrived, so the upward height of pulp is not optimistic | 5200 - 5250 | 5500 - 5600 | | Cotton 2509 | Reduce long positions on rallies | The support of low inventory and low imports has been partially realized, and the futures price enters a shock period in the short term | 13200 - 13300 | 14400 - 14500 | [18] Second Part: Sector Weekly Market Review 1. Futures Market Review | Variety | Closing Price | Weekly Change | Weekly Change Rate (%) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Apple 2510 | 8005 | 122 | 1.55 | | Jujube 2509 | 9435 | 105 | 1.13 | | Sugar 2509 | 5876 | 50 | 0.86 | | Pulp 2509 | 5520 | 228 | 4.31 | | Cotton 2509 | 14170 | - 100 | - 0.70 | [19] 2. Spot Market Review | Variety | Spot Price | MoM Change | YoY Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Apple (yuan/jin) | 3.90 | 0.00 | - 0.25 | | Jujube (yuan/kg) | 9.40 | - 0.10 | - 5.30 | | Sugar (yuan/ton) | 6050 | 0 | - 410 | | Pulp (Shandong Yinxing) | 5950 | 0 | - 150 | | Cotton (yuan/ton) | 15549 | - 14 | - 46 | [27] Third Part: Sector Basis Situation The content mainly provides relevant charts, including the basis of Apple 10 - month, jujube main - continuous, sugar main - continuous, and pulp main - continuous, but no specific data summary is given [39][40][41][43]. Fourth Part: Inter - monthly Spread Situation The content mainly provides relevant charts, including the spreads of Apple 10 - 1, Apple 1 - 5, jujube 1/5, jujube 5/9, sugar 5 - 9, and sugar 9 - 1, but no specific data summary is given [46][47][50]. Fifth Part: Futures Warehouse Receipt Situation | Variety | Warehouse Receipt Quantity | MoM Change | YoY Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Apple | 0 | 0 | 0 | | Jujube | 8813 | - 80 | - 2610 | | Sugar | 20642 | - 298 | 4470 | | Pulp | 255698 | 0 | - 254215 | | Cotton | 9265 | - 72 | - 2636 | [51] Sixth Part: Option - related Data | Variety | Market Logic | Option Strategy | | --- | --- | --- | | Apple 2510 | The initial production forecast is basically finalized, and the reduction in production amplitude has converged compared with the previous period | Hold out - of - the - money call options | | Jujube 2509 | New jujube production increase and concentrated listing | Sell deep out - of - the - money call options | | Sugar 2509 | The spot price is firm, and the raw sugar futures price rebounds | Sell deep out - of - the - money put options | | Cotton 2509 | The bullish factors have been realized, and the upward trend of the futures price slows down in the short term | Hold out - of - the - money put options | [51] Seventh Part: Sector Futures Fundamental Situation - **Apple**: The content provides charts of the minimum temperature, precipitation, export quantity, and storage inventory in major apple - producing areas, but no specific data summary is given [73][77][79] - **Jujube**: The content provides charts of the weekly trading volume in Henan and Hebei and the daily arrival volume in the Guangdong Ruyifang market, but no specific data summary is given [82][84] - **Sugar**: The content provides charts of the national sugar industrial inventory, sugar import quantity, and sugar spot - futures difference, but no specific data summary is given [88][89][93] - **Pulp**: The content provides charts of domestic pulp inventory, global producer pulp inventory days, paper production, and pulp import quantity, but no specific data summary is given [91][94][103] - **Cotton**: The content provides charts of national cotton industrial inventory, commercial inventory, import quantity, clothing retail value, and clothing export amount, but no specific data summary is given [105][110][111]

Group 1 - The core point of the article highlights the significant drop in soybean futures prices in the U.S. market, attributed to Argentina's substantial reduction in export taxes, raising concerns about the potential increase in global soybean supply pressure [1] Group 2 - The article indicates that the futures market reacted negatively, with U.S. soybean futures opening lower, reflecting market apprehension regarding supply dynamics [1] - Argentina's decision to lower export taxes is expected to impact global soybean trade, potentially leading to increased competition and price volatility in the market [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Views of the Report - Overnight US soybeans slightly declined, and Dalian soybean meal futures adjusted and fluctuated. Dalian soybeans also adjusted and fluctuated [1]. - On July 25, CBOT soybean futures closed lower due to trade uncertainties and concerns about export demand. The export sales data on Thursday was at the lower end of market estimates, and favorable weather in the US Midwest boosted soybean production prospects, putting pressure on soybean prices [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Prices**: DCE soybean 2509 closed at 4224 yuan/ton during the day session, up 18 yuan (+0.43%), and at 4208 yuan/ton during the night session, down 15 yuan (-0.36%); DCE soybean meal 2509 closed at 3021 yuan/ton during the day session, down 20 yuan (-0.66%), and at 3007 yuan/ton during the night session, down 18 yuan (-0.60%); CBOT soybean 11 closed at 1021.75 cents/bushel, down 3.25 cents (-0.32%); CBOT soybean meal 12 closed at 281.7 dollars/short ton, down 1.5 dollars (-0.53%) [1]. - **Spot Prices**: In Shandong, the price of 43% soybean meal was 2900 - 2920 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan to unchanged compared to the previous day; in East China, it was 2830 - 2920 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan or unchanged; in South China, it was 2880 - 2940 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan to unchanged [1]. - **Industrial Data**: The trading volume of soybean meal was 8.15 million tons/day, compared with 20.15 million tons/day in the previous two trading days; the inventory was not available, compared with 90.83 million tons/week in the previous two trading days [1]. 3.2 Macro and Industry News - On July 25, CBOT soybean futures closed lower. Traders were trying to build positions before the August 1 tariff deadline set by the Trump administration, but were reluctant to significantly adjust their trading patterns due to ongoing Sino - US negotiations. The EU and the US may reach a trade framework agreement this weekend. Private exporters reported selling 142,500 tons of soybeans to Mexico for delivery in the 2025/26 season [3]. 3.3 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of soybean meal is 0, and the trend intensity of soybeans is 0, referring only to the price fluctuations of the main - contract futures during the day session on the report day [3].

Report Overview - Report Date: July 28, 2025 [2] - Reported Industry: Soybean Meal [1] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Views of the Report - The US soybean futures contract on the external market is oscillating, with the main contract at 1025 cents. The fundamentals of the external market have not changed significantly recently. The growth of the new - season US soybeans is good, and the expectation of a bumper harvest is strengthening. The demand is also expected to improve, so the US soybeans may still oscillate in the bottom range [6]. - The domestic soybean meal dropped sharply today. The market price is expected to fall if the soybean import tariff returns to the previous level after the Sino - US talks next week. The short - term volatility of the futures price is expected to increase [6]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - Today, the external US soybean futures contract oscillated. The new - season US soybeans have a good growth situation, with a current excellent - good rate of 68% and only 7% of the planting area affected by drought. The demand is expected to improve, and the US has reached trade agreements with many countries recently. The US soybean may oscillate in the bottom range [6]. - Domestic soybean meal dropped sharply today. The main reason for the previous rise was the non - opening of the new - season US soybean procurement window. With the upcoming Sino - US talks, the market expects the import tariff issue to be discussed, leading to a large - scale exit of long - position holders [6]. | Contract | Pre - settlement Price | Open Price | High Price | Low Price | Close Price | Change | Change Rate | Volume | Open Interest | Change in Open Interest | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Soybean Meal 2601 | 3072 | 3060 | 3076 | 3051 | 3059 | - 13 | - 0.42% | 360196 | 1240402 | 20263 | | Soybean Meal 2509 | 3041 | 3029 | 3038 | 3013 | 3021 | - 20 | - 0.66% | 894109 | 1623603 | - 44552 | | Soybean Meal 2511 | 3079 | 3068 | 3076 | 3051 | 3057 | - 22 | - 0.71% | 103312 | 623526 | - 6906 | [6] 3.2 Industry News - USDA Export Sales Report Forecast: As of the week ending July 17, the net increase in US soybean export sales is expected to be between 350,000 - 850,000 tons. The net increase in US soybean meal export sales is expected to be between 250,000 - 550,000 tons, and the net increase in US soybean oil export sales is expected to be between 0 - 20,000 tons [7]. - Anec Forecast: From July 20 to July 26, Brazil's soybean export volume was 2.8107 million tons (compared to 3.0876 million tons last week), soybean meal export volume was 0.5317 million tons (compared to 0.5662 million tons last week), and corn export volume was 1.5212 million tons (compared to 0.6277 million tons last week) [8] 3.3 Data Overview - The report presents multiple data charts, including the ex - factory price of soybean meal, the basis of the 09 contract, the 1 - 5 spread, the 5 - 9 spread, the US dollar - RMB central parity rate, and the US dollar - Brazilian real exchange rate [9]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - North American weather restricts the upside of US soybeans, and they are expected to trade in a range due to low valuation; domestic soybean meal remains weak due to pig production capacity control policies and inventory accumulation [2]. - The external soybean market is in a state of low valuation and oversupply, lacking a clear directional driver, while domestic soybean import costs are rising slightly due to a single - supply source and may be difficult to decline without substantial improvement in Sino - US soybean trade [2]. - EPA policy, long - term B50 policy expectations, and limited Southeast Asian supply boost the annual operating center of edible oils, but there are still bearish factors due to the significant year - on - year recovery of Southeast Asian palm oil production [6]. Summary by Directory Soybean/Meal Important Information - US soybeans closed lower on the night of last Friday. North American weather is favorable, restricting the upside, and they are expected to trade in a range. Domestic soybean meal is weak due to pig production capacity control policies and inventory accumulation. Domestic soybean meal spot prices were stable over the weekend, with the East China price at 2840 yuan/ton. Last week, soybean meal sales were average, but提货 remained high, and downstream inventory days decreased slightly to a medium - level in history. MYSTEEL statistics show that 2.2389 million tons of soybeans were crushed last week, and 2.3726 million tons are expected to be crushed this week [2]. - The US soybean growing area is expected to have normal rainfall and high temperatures in the next two weeks, which is generally beneficial for growth. In Brazil, the premium has stabilized and rebounded. The external soybean market is in a state of low valuation and oversupply, lacking a clear directional driver, while domestic soybean import costs are rising slightly due to a single - supply source and may be difficult to decline without substantial improvement in Sino - US soybean trade [2]. - The import cost of external soybeans is affected by low valuation, EPA policy, and the fact that Brazil is the sole supplier from September to January, resulting in volatile trading. However, with the global oversupply of protein raw materials, there is insufficient upward momentum for soybean import costs. The domestic soybean meal market is in a seasonal oversupply situation, and the spot market is expected to start destocking at the end of September [4]. Trading Strategy - The soybean meal market is a mix of bullish and bearish factors. It is recommended to go long at the lower end of the cost range and pay attention to crushing margins and supply pressure at the upper end, waiting for progress on Sino - US tariffs and new drivers from the supply side. For arbitrage, pay attention to widening the spread of the 09 contract between soybean meal and rapeseed meal when the spread is low [4]. Edible Oils Important Information - High - frequency export data shows that Malaysia's palm oil exports in June had different trends: an expected increase of 5.31% - 12% in the first 10 days, a 5.29% - 6.16% decline in the first 15 days, a 3.57% - 7.31% decline in the first 20 days, and a 9.2% - 15.22% decline in the first 25 days. SPPOMA data shows that Malaysia's palm oil production increased by 35.28% in the first 10 days of July 2025, 17.06% in the first 15 days, and 6.19% in the first 20 days [6]. - In the second quarter of 2025, Brazil's biodiesel production increased by 5.6% year - on - year to 2.08 million tons, and the production from January to June reached 3.97 million tons (+7.3%). This has stimulated the consumption of soybean oil as a raw material, with its usage in biofuel production increasing by 10% to 1.6 million tons from April to June [6]. - Domestic palm oil fluctuated and declined last Friday, and the net long positions of foreign - funded institutions in the three major edible oils decreased slightly. Overall, EPA policy, long - term B50 policy expectations, and limited Southeast Asian supply boost the annual operating center of edible oils, but there are still bearish factors due to the significant year - on - year recovery of Southeast Asian palm oil production [6]. - Domestic spot basis levels are stable at low levels. The basis of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangzhou is 09 + 30 (0) yuan/ton, the basis of first - grade soybean oil in Jiangsu is 09 + 130 (0) yuan/ton, and the basis of rapeseed oil in East China is 09 + 120 (0) yuan/ton [8]. Trading Strategy - Fundamentally, the US biodiesel policy draft exceeds expectations, Southeast Asian palm oil has limited production growth potential, low inventories of Indian vegetable oils create rigid demand, and the expected B50 policy in Indonesia support the price center of edible oils. For palm oil, if demand countries maintain normal imports and production remains at a moderate level from July to September, inventories in producing areas may remain stable, supporting a firm and volatile price. There may be an upward expectation in the fourth quarter due to the B50 policy in Indonesia. However, the current valuation is relatively high, and the upside is restricted by factors such as the expected annual increase in edible oil production, high palm oil production in producing areas, the undetermined RVO rules, macro - factors, and adjustments in demand from major importing countries. It is recommended to view it with a volatile perspective [9]. Sugar Key Information - Zhengzhou sugar futures continued to fluctuate on Friday. The closing price of the September contract was 5876 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton or 0.17% from the previous trading day. In the spot market, Guangxi sugar - making groups quoted 6030 - 6090 yuan/ton, up 0 - 20 yuan/ton from the previous day; Yunnan sugar - making groups quoted 5830 - 5870 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton; and processing sugar mills' mainstream quotes were in the range of 6160 - 6210 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton. The basis between Guangxi spot and the main Zhengzhou sugar contract (sr2509) is 154 yuan/ton [11]. - As of the week ending July 23, the number of ships waiting to load sugar at Brazilian ports was 76, down from 77 the previous week. The quantity of sugar waiting to be loaded was 3.3408 million tons, up 246,500 tons from the previous week [11]. Trading Strategy - China is currently in the best window period for sugar imports in the past five years, and the pressure of import supply may increase in the second half of the year. Assuming that the external price does not rebound significantly, the price of Zhengzhou sugar is likely to continue to decline [12]. Cotton Key Information - Zhengzhou cotton futures continued to fluctuate on Friday. The closing price of the September contract was 14,170 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton or 0.07% from the previous trading day. In the spot market, the price of Xinjiang machine - picked cotton (CCIndex 3128B) was 15,340 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton from the previous day. The basis between the Xinjiang machine - picked cotton price and the main Zhengzhou cotton contract (CF2509) is 1170 yuan/ton [14]. - As of the week ending July 25, the operating rate of spinning mills was 67.6%, down 1.9 percentage points from the previous week but up 0.2 percentage points from the same period last year; the operating rate of weaving mills was 37.5%, down 0.7 percentage points from the previous week and 0.8 percentage points from the same period last year; the weekly commercial inventory of cotton was 2.31 million tons, down 150,000 tons from the previous week but up 90,000 tons from the same period last year [14]. Trading Strategy - Although the Sino - US trade agreement has not been finalized, the price of Zhengzhou cotton has rebounded to the level before the announcement of US equivalent tariffs, partially reflecting the positive expectation. Fundamentally, downstream consumption has been average recently. The market also expects that sliding - scale import quotas may be issued in the third quarter, which is a potential bearish factor for cotton prices [15]. Eggs Spot Information - Egg prices in China weakened over the weekend, with some areas remaining stable. The price of large - sized eggs in Heishan remained at 2.9 yuan/jin, while the price in Guantao dropped 0.18 yuan to 3 yuan/jin. The inventory of laying hens is at a high level, and the market supply is sufficient, although high - quality large - sized eggs are in short supply. After consecutive price increases, terminal sentiment has become more cautious, but consumption is in the traditional peak season. It is expected that demand will be weak at the beginning of this week and then strengthen, and egg prices may rise again after a small decline [17]. Trading Strategy - High temperatures have led to a decline in egg - laying rates, alleviating supply pressure and triggering market stocking sentiment. The spot price bottomed out earlier and rose more than expected, causing short - position holders in the near - month contracts to flee. However, with a high premium, long - position holders still lack confidence. In the short term, the near - month contracts will fluctuate mainly following the spot price, lacking a clear trend. For the 09 and subsequent post - festival contracts, the earlier bottoming of the spot price further reduces the sentiment of culling hens. With limited cost changes and an expected continuous increase in theoretical supply, the upside of the spot price is limited, and the high - price period is expected to be short. Continue to pay attention to short - selling opportunities after the price rebounds [18]. Pigs Spot Information - Pig prices in China remained stable over the weekend, with some areas showing small fluctuations. The average price in Henan dropped 0.01 yuan to 14.12 yuan/kg, and the average price in Sichuan dropped 0.01 yuan to 13.31 yuan/kg. In the northern market, farmers' enthusiasm for selling increased, and downstream buyers pressured prices, leading to price declines in most areas. In the southern market, farmers mostly maintained stable prices and waited and watched, with overall prices showing little change and remaining stable. It is expected that pig prices will be mostly stable today with some local declines [20]. Trading Strategy - The market is trading on the government's intervention in reducing pig production capacity, which has restructured the original logic of oversupply. The valuations of all contracts on the futures market have increased significantly, especially for the long - term contracts. For the near - term contracts, although the theoretical supply is expected to increase in the fourth quarter, the pre - release of pressure through active weight reduction and the possibility of active weight gain due to the large price difference between fat and standard pigs reduce the possibility of a significant inventory reduction in the early fourth quarter, and the spread between contracts may move towards a positive structure. For the long - term contracts, the long - term government regulation of sow production capacity cannot be disproven for now, and the spread is more likely to be in a reverse structure. With the industry structure in the process of restructuring, the uncertainty of unilateral trading increases. It is recommended to focus more on spread trading opportunities [21].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment strategy for both the soybean and peanut markets is neutral [4][8] Core Viewpoints - The oil market continues to fluctuate during the off - season of market consumption. The soybean market has a tight supply of domestic beans, and although it is in the consumption off - season, the bottom of the soybean price is supported. The peanut market is in a state of weak and narrow - range fluctuation, with a lack of obvious one - way driving factors [1][3][7] Summary by Directory Soybean Market Analysis Market News and Important Data - **Price Quotes**: The closing price of the main soybean contract 2509 this week was 4,225 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 36 yuan or 0.9%. The spot basis of edible beans in different regions has changed to varying degrees [1] Soybean Supply and Demand - **Arrival Forecast**: In July 2025, Brazilian soybeans arriving in China are expected to be 10.82 million tons, Argentine soybeans 1.19 million tons, and US soybeans 0 tons, totaling 12.01 million tons. The remaining grain in the Northeast is scarce, and the supply of domestic beans is relatively tight. The auction of old grain and the small - scale listing of early - maturing new soybeans in Hubei have alleviated some supply pressure [2] Market Analysis - The price center of the main soybean futures contract 2509 on the Dalian Commodity Exchange continued to move up this week. The soybean price in the Northeast remained stable due to limited supply, while the prices in the Yangtze and Yellow River production areas were slightly weak. The domestic soybean market is in a state of shortage between old and new crops, and the overall sales are not good due to the consumption off - season, but the bottom of the price is supported [3] Peanut Market Analysis Market News and Important Data - **Price Quotes**: The closing price of the peanut 2510 contract this week was 8,138 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 84 yuan or 1%. The spot basis in different regions has changed to varying degrees [4] Peanut Supply and Demand - As of July 24, the peanut inventory of domestic peanut oil sample enterprises was 107,050 tons, a decrease of 4,360 tons from last week [5] Oil Mills - **Arrival Situation**: The arrival volume of oil mills this week was 640 tons, a decrease from last week. The domestic market for commercial peanuts had low arrival volume, and traders were cautious in purchasing, mainly consuming inventory. The overall market trading was light, and most market prices were basically stable [6] Market Analysis - The domestic peanut price fluctuated weakly this week. As of July 24, 2025, the average price of national general peanuts was 8,680 yuan/ton, a 0.23% decrease from last week. The peanut spot market lacked obvious one - way driving factors, and the trading atmosphere remained dull [7]

豆油：缺乏有效驱动，关注中美谈判结果 二 〇 二 五 年 度 2025 年 7 月 27 日 棕榈油：宏观情绪消退，基本面或有回踩 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 李隽钰 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021380 lijunyu@gtht.com 上周观点及逻辑： 棕榈油：国内宏观情绪偏好将棕榈油顶至三年高位，但基本面缺乏强驱动，没有强供给题材的上涨需 要较强的下游需求进行承接，印度承接乏力的情况下价格高位难以继续上冲，棕榈油 09 合约周跌 0.31%。 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 豆油：中美贸易谈判临近，豆系紧张情绪抬头，对国内豆油弱现实有所改善，但仍难以给出上涨的强 驱动，豆油 09 合约周跌 0.20%。 期货研究 本周观点及逻辑： 报告导读： 棕榈油：MPOB 报告 6 月库存微增后利空落地开启反弹，同时今年库存高点已经从 4 月以来被盘面逐步 消化，棕榈油基本面无新增有效利空，市场开始交易下半年去库行情，同时国内宏观情绪偏好，将棕榈油 顶至三年高位，但当下的基本面未免显得这个价格不配位。从产地基本面来看，我们预估 7 月产量仍难以 达到 180 万吨，同时前 25 日出口情绪偏差，预估在 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - No information provided in the given documents. Core Views of the Reports Palm Oil, Soybean Oil, and Rapeseed Oil - Malaysian BMD crude palm oil futures may strengthen slowly after oscillating in the 4300 - 4350 ringgit range, but may weaken after the end of the rebound. Domestic palm oil futures maintain a near - strong and far - weak pattern, and attention should be paid to whether it can stand above 9000 yuan. The US soybean oil industry's increased consumption and the expected stocking for the Indian Festival boost the palm oil and vegetable oil prices. In the short term, CBOT soybean oil may rise again. In the domestic market, the oil mills' urging for delivery may affect the spot basis quotes, but the traders' procurement cost supports the basis [1]. Sugar - Brazil's sugar production in the second half of June was lower than expected. If the sugar - to - ethanol ratio is adjusted downward, Brazil's output may not meet expectations. The short - term bottom of raw sugar prices may appear, but the overall trend is bearish. The domestic sugar market is expected to be marginally loose in supply and demand, and a bearish view is maintained after a rebound [4]. Corn - The import auction has limited impact. The supply of corn is tight, and traders are reluctant to sell. The transportation is affected by heavy rainfall, and the demand from deep - processing and feed enterprises is weak. Wheat has a substitution advantage, but the corn price decline is limited. In the medium term, the tight supply and low imports support the corn price. In the short term, the market is quiet, and the price fluctuates narrowly [7]. Meal - The US soybeans are at the bottom, and the Brazilian soybeans are firm. The domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories are rising, and the basis is low. The supply will remain high in the short term, but the continuity of soybean arrivals after October is uncertain. The market sentiment is suppressed, and it is recommended to wait and see [10]. Cotton - The downstream demand of the cotton industry is still weak, but the downstream prices are following the rise of cotton prices. The shipment of old cotton after the price increase brings some pressure, but the tight inventory problem cannot be solved before the new cotton is on the market. In the short term, the domestic cotton price may oscillate at a high level, and it will be under pressure after the new cotton is on the market [12]. Pork - The current supply and demand of the pig market are weak. The short - term pig price is not optimistic, and the spot price will maintain a bottom - oscillating pattern. The upside of the near - month contract is limited. The far - month contract is affected by policies, and short - selling is not recommended, but the impact of hedging funds should be noted [15]. Eggs - The supply of eggs is sufficient, but the high - temperature weather affects the egg production. The demand in the peak season is starting, and the prices are expected to rise slightly and then stabilize [19]. Summaries According to Related Catalogs Futures Market Conditions Palm Oil - The spot price of Jiangsu first - grade palm oil was 8360 yuan on July 24, up 0.60% from the previous day. The futures price of Y2509 was 8166 yuan, up 1.14%. The basis was 194 yuan, down 42 yuan [1]. Soybean Oil - The spot price of Guangdong 24 - degree soybean oil was 9050 yuan on July 24, up 0.56%. The futures price of P2509 was 8994 yuan, up 1.22%. The basis was - 54 yuan, down 60 yuan [1]. Rapeseed Oil - The spot price of Jiangsu fourth - grade rapeseed oil was 9570 yuan on July 24, up 0.21%. The futures price of OI509 was 9492 yuan, up 0.38%. The basis was 78 yuan, down 16 yuan [1]. Sugar - The futures price of SR2601 was 2668 yuan/ton on July 24, up 0.21%. The futures price of SR2509 was 5866 yuan/ton, up 0.55%. The ICE raw sugar main contract was 16.57 cents/pound, up 1.84% [3]. Corn - The futures price of C2509 was 2318 yuan on July 24, down 0.13%. The basis was 42 yuan, up 3 yuan. The 9 - 1 spread was 80 yuan, up 6 yuan [7]. Corn Starch - The futures price of CS2509 was 2669 yuan on July 24, down 0.22%. The basis was 11 yuan, up 6 yuan. The 9 - 1 spread was 57 yuan, up 8 yuan [7]. Cotton - The futures price of CF2509 was 14160 yuan/ton on July 24, down 0.14%. The futures price of CF2601 was 14065 yuan/ton, unchanged. The ICE US cotton main contract was 68.74 cents/pound, up 0.66% [12]. Eggs - The futures price of JD09 was 3636 yuan/500KG on July 24, down 0.03%. The futures price of JD08 was 3562 yuan/500KG, down 1.41%. The basis was - 299 yuan/500KG, up 1.97% [18]. Spot Market Conditions Sugar - The spot price in Nanning was 6050 yuan/ton, unchanged. The spot price in Kunming was 5910 yuan/ton, up 0.51%. The price difference between imported Brazilian sugar (in - quota) and Nanning's price was - 1590 yuan, down 1.40% [3]. Corn - The FOB price at Jinzhou Port was 2360 yuan/ton, unchanged. The FOB price at Shekou was 2430 yuan/ton, unchanged [7]. Cotton - The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B cotton was 15431 yuan/ton, up 0.13%. The CC Index of 3128B was 15563 yuan/ton, up 0.13% [12]. Eggs - The egg price in the producing area was 3.34 yuan/jin, up 0.15% [18]. Industry Conditions Sugar - The cumulative national sugar production was 1116.21 million tons, up 12.03%. The cumulative national sugar sales were 811.38 million tons, up 23.07%. The cumulative sugar production in Guangxi was 646.50 million tons, up 4.59% [3]. Cotton - The commercial inventory was 254.24 million tons, down 10.2%. The industrial inventory was 88.21 million tons, down 2.3%. The import volume was 3.00 million tons, down 25.0% [12]. Eggs - The price of egg - laying chicken chicks was 3.88 yuan/feather, down 0.51%. The price of culled chickens was 4.80 yuan/jin, up 4.35%. The egg - to - feed ratio was 2.25, up 6.64% [18].