Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the recent surge in U.S. soybean futures prices, driven by expectations of increased purchases from China, reaching a 15-month high at over 1100 cents per bushel [1][2] - Following the U.S.-China consensus on expanding agricultural trade, U.S. soybean prices have increased by 7.26% since October 25, indicating strong market optimism [2][3] - Despite the positive outlook, U.S. soybeans still face competitive disadvantages due to a 13% tariff, compared to only 3% for Brazilian and Argentine soybeans, limiting their market appeal [3][4] Group 2 - Analysts predict that if China proceeds with soybean purchases, it could significantly reduce U.S. soybean ending stocks for the 2025/2026 season, shifting the market from oversupply to a tighter balance [4] - The U.S. soybean harvest is nearing completion, with an estimated average yield of 53 bushels per acre, resulting in a production forecast of 4.26 billion bushels [5] - Historical data shows a shift in China's soybean import sources, with Brazil surpassing the U.S. as the largest supplier, indicating a long-term trend in sourcing preferences [6]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating for the Industry No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The agricultural products sector shows mixed trends. Oils and fats are rebounding, corn has broken through and is rising, eggs are continuously strengthening, while some products like红枣 are falling and others are fluctuating [1]. 3. Summary by Variety (1) Palm Oil - **Market Trend**: The palm oil main 2601 contract has strongly rebounded. After the market digested the bearish factors, it had a technical rebound. The bearish factors of high production and inventory in Malaysia in October were gradually digested, and the approaching减产季 provided some support [2]. - **Strategy**: Close short - positions. The support level for the palm oil main 2601 contract is 8562, and the resistance level is 8780 [2]. (2) Corn - **Market Trend**: The corn main 2601 contract has broken through and risen, driven by improved demand. Policy support, farmers' reluctance to sell, reduced wheat substitution, and increased demand from corn starch enterprises have supported the price [3]. - **Strategy**: Go long with a light position. The support level for the main 2601 contract is 2130, and the resistance level is 2145 [3]. (3) Rapeseed Meal - **Market Trend**: The rapeseed meal main 2601 contract has continued to rise, supported by tight supply. High import costs, limited domestic soybean meal price increases, and a halt in rapeseed imports have led to a shortage of raw materials and a decline in rapeseed meal inventory [5]. - **Strategy**: Go long with a light position. The support level for the 2601 contract is 2520, and the resistance level is 2560 [5]. (4) Eggs - **Market Trend**: The egg main 2512 contract has continued to rise, driven by improved demand. Cooling weather is conducive to storage and transportation, and the traditional winter stocking season and increased hen culling have supported the price [7]. - **Strategy**: Continue to go long with a light position. The support level for the main 2512 contract is 3190, and the resistance level is 3250 [7]. (5) Red Dates - **Market Trend**: The red dates main 2601 contract has continued to fall, pressured by new jujube listings and increased inventory. The expected large - scale production reduction has basically failed, and the inventory is much higher than the same period last year [9]. - **Strategy**: Hold short - positions. The support level for the main 2601 contract is 9560, and the resistance level is 9770 [9]. (6) Live Pigs - **Market Trend**: The live pig main 2601 contract has fluctuated narrowly after a previous rebound. Cold weather has boosted consumption, but high inventory has limited the price rebound space [11]. - **Strategy**: Trade short - term. The support level for the main 2601 contract is 11825, and the resistance level is 12055 [11]. (7) Cotton - **Market Trend**: The cotton main 2601 contract has fluctuated narrowly after a sharp rise. The overall supply is abundant, but the inventory in inland areas is being digested, and textile enterprises' inventory pressure is not large [13]. - **Strategy**: Go long with a light position. The support level for the main 2601 contract is 13580, and the resistance level is 13700 [13]. (8) Apples - **Market Trend**: The apple main 2601 contract has fluctuated sharply, with both bullish and bearish factors. The expected low inventory due to low fruit quality and the potential shortage of deliverable goods coexist with the pressure from increased supply of ordinary goods and competition from citrus fruits [16]. - **Strategy**: Trade short - term. The support level for the main 2601 contract is 8886, and the resistance level is 9100 [16]. (9) Sugar - **Market Trend**: The Zhengzhou sugar main 2601 contract has fluctuated narrowly after a sharp fall. The global expected sugar surplus and the upcoming domestic sugar production increase have pressured the price [19]. - **Strategy**: Go short with a light position. The support level for the main 2601 contract is 5426, and the resistance level is 5451 [19].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply of peanuts is increasing, while downstream demand remains weak. Peanut prices are expected to be relatively stable in the short term. Peanut oil prices are stable, and peanut meal prices have recently stabilized. Oil mills' theoretical profit from peanut pressing is acceptable. The peanut futures will continue to fluctuate at the bottom, and the new - season peanut output is expected to be higher than last year with lower planting costs [3][7] Group 3: Summary by Directory First Part: Data - **Futures盘面**: PK604 closed at 7862, down 8 (-0.10%), with a trading volume of 9,447 (up 50.38%) and an open interest of 17,046 (up 42.35%); PK510 closed at 8140, up 14 (0.17%), with a trading volume of 26 (up 4.00%) and an open interest of 528 (up 3.94%); PK601 closed at 7788, down 14 (-0.18%), with a trading volume of 55,253 (up 14.43%) and an open interest of 168,130 (up 2.51%) [1] - **Spot and Basis**: In the spot market, the prices in Henan Nanyang, Shandong Jining, and Shandong Linyi were 7400, 7800, and 7800 respectively, with no change. The prices of Rizhao peanut meal, Rizhao soybean meal, peanut oil, and Rizhao first - grade soybean oil were 3250, 3050, 14580, and 8310 respectively, with the soybean oil price up 10. The basis for Henan Nanyang was - 388, and for Shandong Jining and Linyi was 12. The price difference between soybean meal and peanut meal was - 3, and the price difference between peanut oil and soybean oil was 6270. The import prices of Sudanese peanuts were 8600 and Senegalese peanuts were 7600, with no change [1] - **Spreads**: The spread of PK01 - PK04 was - 74, down 6; the spread of PK04 - PK10 was - 278, down 22; the spread of PK10 - PK01 was 352, up 28 [1] Second Part: Market Analysis - Peanut prices in Henan have declined, while those in the Northeast have remained stable. The price of 308 common peanuts in Fuyu, Jilin was 4.3 yuan/jin, and in Changtu, Liaoning was 4.3 yuan/jin, both unchanged. The price of Baisha common peanuts in Henan was 3.5 - 3.7 yuan/jin, down 0.1 yuan/jin, and in Junan, Shandong was 3.8 yuan/jin, down 0.1 yuan/jin. Imported peanut prices were stable. The mainstream purchase price of peanut oil mills was 7650 - 7800 yuan/ton, and the theoretical break - even price was 7920 yuan/ton. The prices of soybean oil and peanut oil were stable. The price of Rizhao soybean meal dropped by 10 yuan/ton to 3020 yuan/ton, and the 48 - protein peanut meal was quoted at 3210 yuan/ton [3][5] Third Part: Trading Strategies - **Single - sided**: Peanuts in contracts 01 and 05 will fluctuate at low levels [8] - **Calendar Spread**: Hold a wait - and - see attitude [9] - **Options**: Hold the short position of pk601 - P - 7600 [10] Fourth Part: Related Attachments - There are six figures including the spot price of Shandong peanuts, the pressing profit of peanut oil mills, the price of peanut oil, the basis between peanut spot and continuous contracts, the spread between peanut 10 - 1 contracts, and the spread between peanut 1 - 4 contracts [13][18][19]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report The report presents a comprehensive overview of the commodities market, including overnight and spot prices, important fundamental information on supply - demand, and details on capital flows and macro - economic data. It offers insights into the palm oil, soybean, and other related markets both internationally and domestically, as well as key economic indicators from the US and China [1][3][7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Overnight Market Quotes - The closing price of BMD Malaysian palm oil futures contract 01 was 4122.00, with a previous - day decline of 0.84% and an overnight increase of 0.32% [1]. - Brent crude oil contract 01 on ICE closed at 63.55, down 1.24% from the previous day and 0.86% overnight [1]. - NYMEX WTI crude oil contract 12 closed at 59.64, down 1.31% from the previous day and 0.83% overnight [1]. - CBOT soybean contract 01 closed at 1134.50, up 1.27% from the previous day and 0.58% overnight [1]. - The US dollar index was at 100.17, down 0.04% [1]. 3.2 Spot Market Quotes - For DCE palm oil 2601, the spot price in North China was 8740, with a basis of 100 and no change from the previous day [3]. - For DCE soybean oil 2601, the spot price in Shandong was 8350, with a basis of 204 and a decrease of 18 from the previous day [3]. - For DCE soybean meal 2601, the spot price in Shandong was 3030, with a basis of - 10 and an increase of 21 from the previous day [3]. 3.3 Important Fundamental Information 3.3.1 Production Areas Weather - In central Brazil, showers will be active until next week, which is beneficial for crops. In South Rio Grande do Sul/Paraná, there will be regional showers until Thursday, scattered showers on Friday, and regional showers on Saturday. Temperatures will be near to above normal from Wednesday to Thursday and near to below normal from Friday to Saturday [5]. 3.3.2 International Supply - Demand - MPOA estimates that Malaysia's palm oil production from October 1 - 31 increased by 12.31% to 2.07 million tons, reaching an eight - year high [7]. - India's palm oil imports in October dropped to a five - year low of 750,000 tons due to increased domestic inventory, weak food industry demand, and a narrowing price gap with other oilseeds [8]. - Analysts expect that as of the week ending October 30, US 2025/26 soybean export sales will net increase by 400,000 - 2 million tons, soybean meal by 50,000 - 450,000 tons, and soybean oil by 5,000 - 25,000 tons [9]. 3.3.3 Domestic Supply - Demand - On November 5, the total trading volume of soybean oil and palm oil was 12,300 tons, a decrease of 10,900 tons or 47% compared to the previous trading day [13]. - On November 5, the total trading volume of soybean meal at major domestic oil mills was 132,100 tons, an increase of 62,000 tons compared to the previous day [13]. 3.3.4 International Macroeconomic Data - The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in December is 62.5%, and the probability of keeping rates unchanged is 37.5% [14]. - The US ADP employment in October was 42,000, higher than the expected 28,000 [14]. 3.3.5 Domestic Macroeconomic News - On November 5, the US dollar/Chinese yuan exchange rate was 7.0901, up 16 points (yuan depreciation) [16]. - On November 5, the People's Bank of China conducted 65.5 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, resulting in a net withdrawal of 492.2 billion yuan due to 557.7 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase maturities [16]. 3.4 Capital Flows - On November 5, 2025, the futures market had a net capital inflow of 4.605 billion yuan. Commodity futures had a net inflow of 132 million yuan, including 1.087 billion yuan for agricultural product futures, 937 million yuan for chemical futures, and 773 million yuan for black - series futures, while metal futures had a net outflow of 2.664 billion yuan. Stock index futures had a net inflow of 4.278 billion yuan, and treasury bond futures had a net outflow of 30 million yuan [20]. 3.5 Arbitrage Tracking No specific information provided in the given content.

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The overall agricultural market shows a mixed performance with different trends for each variety. For example, protein meals are strong, while some oils are weak, and other commodities are mostly in a state of oscillation [1][8]. - International factors such as US government policies, South American weather, and global trade relations, as well as domestic factors like consumer demand and import/export volumes, significantly influence the market [3][7]. 3. Summary by Variety Oils - **View**: Palm oil and rapeseed oil are expected to be weak due to strong production expectations for Malaysian palm oil. Domestic oil trends were divided, with palm and rapeseed oil oscillating weakly. - **Logic**: Concerns about US soybean export demand led to a decline in US soybeans. The US government's "shutdown" affected data updates. Brazilian soybean planting is progressing well, and domestic soybean arrivals are expected to be high, slowing down the de - stocking of domestic soybean oil. Malaysian palm oil is likely to accumulate inventory in October, while Indonesian palm oil inventory remains low, and Indian vegetable oil imports may decline seasonally. Russian rapeseed harvest may increase domestic rapeseed oil supply [7]. - **Outlook**: Palm oil and rapeseed oil are expected to oscillate weakly, while soybean oil may oscillate [7]. Protein Meals - **View**: Both soybean meal and rapeseed meal are rising, and the market remains strong. - **Logic**: The retention of the 10% tariff on US soybeans by China drove up domestic soybean meal prices, and rapeseed meal followed. Internationally, Chinese purchases are expected to boost US soybean exports in the next 2 - 3 months. The US soybean supply - demand balance may tighten further if the yield is revised down. Brazilian old - crop soybean exports decreased in October, but it has a price advantage. In China, short - term import crushing margins are still in the red, but the traditional consumption peak in the fourth quarter may drive up prices. Medium - to long - term factors such as Chinese purchases, South American weather, and consumption will determine the price increase [2][3][8]. - **Outlook**: US soybeans will oscillate, and domestic soybean meal will oscillate with an upward bias [3][8]. Corn/Starch - **View**: Downstream orders support port prices, and the market oscillates. - **Logic**: Domestic corn prices are generally stable. In the Northeast, farmers are reluctant to sell as storage conditions improve, and transportation bottlenecks increase costs. New grain listing pressure may still affect prices later. With high yields, the cost of gathering grain at ports may decrease, and the demand for building inventories is not strong [9][10]. - **Outlook**: The market will oscillate, and short - term observation is recommended [10]. Pigs - **View**: Supply and demand are loose, and pig prices oscillate. - **Logic**: Futures rebounded with reduced positions, while spot prices remained weak due to high supply. Short - term, second - fattening is affected by price rebounds. Medium - term, the large number of sows in the first half of 2025 will lead to increased pig supply in the fourth quarter. Long - term, sow culling is expected to accelerate, reducing supply pressure in the second half of 2026. Demand is slightly increasing with the drop in temperature, and group farms are actively selling [10]. - **Outlook**: Prices will oscillate weakly in the short - term, and long - term prices may be supported by sow culling [10]. Natural Rubber - **View**: The market oscillates and adjusts, with a bearish sentiment. - **Logic**: The market is still weak, but the decline has slowed. The difference in valuation between RU and NR may lead to a narrowing of the spread. Without new macro - level support, prices may continue to decline. However, there may still be speculation about the end of the domestic tapping season and RU warehouse receipts [11][12]. - **Outlook**: Prices will oscillate at the bottom with high elasticity, and short - term focus is on expanding the RU - NR spread [12]. Synthetic Rubber - **View**: The market rebounds from the bottom, and attention should be paid to changes in trading sentiment. - **Logic**: The BR contract rebounded after reaching a low. Lower prices increased downstream purchasing interest, and the stabilization of butadiene also supported the market. However, butadiene supply is expected to be in surplus in the next two months [13][14]. - **Outlook**: Before the supply - demand imbalance of butadiene is resolved, short - selling on rallies is recommended [14]. Cotton - **View**: The main contract oscillates, with limited upside and downside. - **Logic**: New - season cotton production in Xinjiang is lower than expected, and higher acquisition costs supported prices in October. Macro - level benefits such as improved Sino - US trade relations may promote cotton imports and textile exports in the future, but the short - term impact is limited. New cotton listings and hedging pressure may limit price increases, while cost support restricts price drops [14]. - **Outlook**: In the short - term, the 01 contract will oscillate within a range; in the long - term, the cotton market may reduce inventory and prices may rise [14]. Sugar - **View**: The strategy of short - selling on rallies is maintained. - **Logic**: Internationally, Brazilian sugar production has passed its peak, but new sugar supply from the Northern Hemisphere will increase. Brazil's production is slightly higher than last year, and Thailand and India are expected to increase production in the new season. Domestically, demand from August to September was average, and industrial inventories increased. Although import controls and limited import quotas supported prices, the overall supply is expected to increase [15]. - **Outlook**: In the medium - to long - term, prices will oscillate weakly, and short - selling on rallies is recommended [15]. Pulp - **View**: The market rises on high volume, and the enthusiasm for cash - and - carry arbitrage increases. - **Logic**: Futures prices rose due to expectations of rising paper prices and increasing wood chip prices. However, the long - standing negative factors in the pulp market, such as low demand for softwood pulp, over - supply of hardwood pulp, and high - cost futures contracts, limit price increases. There are also some positive factors, such as rising packaging paper prices and improving cultural paper demand [16][17]. - **Outlook**: The market will oscillate, and a wait - and - see approach is recommended [17]. Offset Printing Paper - **View**: Spot prices are stable, and the market oscillates. - **Logic**: On November 5, prices in Shandong remained unchanged. The supply of new production capacity is stabilizing, and the supply surplus is still severe. Demand from publishing tenders has started, but social orders are not strong. Some paper mills plan to raise prices in early November, but the market is waiting and watching [18]. - **Outlook**: A wait - and - see strategy is recommended, and attention should be paid to new factors affecting market sentiment [19]. Logs - **View**: Spot prices are stable, and the market oscillates. - **Logic**: Log prices in ports remained stable this week. Traders' active sales and weak sales of laminated wood put pressure on prices. New Zealand's log imports may face problems such as blue - stain wood. However, the current low valuation and inventory in Jiangsu limit further price drops [21]. - **Outlook**: The market will oscillate at the bottom, and a wait - and - see approach is recommended for speculators [21]. Commodity Index - **Comprehensive Index**: The special index shows that the commodity 20 index increased by 0.18% to 2526.40, the industrial product index remained unchanged at 2213.59, and the PPI commodity index decreased by 0.17% to 1335.37 [179]. - **Sector Index**: The agricultural product index on November 5, 2025, was 931.46, with a daily increase of 0.89%, a 5 - day increase of 0.52%, a 1 - month decrease of 1.01%, and a year - to - date decrease of 2.44% [180].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The cotton market has support below and pressure above in the near term. There is continuous pressure from new cotton supply, but yarn mills are actively replenishing their inventories. In the long term, policies and weather are the key factors. The strategies are to conduct reverse arbitrage on the January - May spread when prices are high and to layout long positions for distant - month contracts when prices are low [4] Group 3: Summary According to Relevant Data Domestic Cotton Futures - CF01 on November 5 was 13615, up 80 (0.59%) from November 4; CF05 was 13620, up 65 (0.48%); CF01 - 05 was - 5, up 15 from the previous day [3] Domestic Cotton Spot - In Xinjiang on November 5, the price was 14627, down 13 (-0.09%); in Henan it was 14856, down 34 (-0.23%); in Shandong it was 14873, unchanged (0.00%); Xinjiang - main continuous basis was 1012, down 93 [3] Domestic Yarn Futures and Spot - Domestic yarn futures CY on November 5 was 19820, up 25 (0.13%); domestic yarn spot C32S price index was 20520, unchanged (0.00%) [3] US Cotton Spot - CT (USD/磅) was unchanged at 65.15; the arrival price was 75.20, down 0.3 (-0.40%); 1% quota pick - up price was 13158, down 51 (-0.39%); sliding - scale duty pick - up price was 14069, down 29 (-0.21%) [3] Spread Data - The yarn - cotton spread (futures) was 6205, down 55; the yarn - cotton spread (spot) was 911, up 22 [3] Other Data - The domestic - foreign spread (spot) was 1715, up 51 [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating - All three industries (cotton, sugar, and pulp) are rated neutral [3][6][8] Core Viewpoints - For cotton, short - term upward space is limited due to factors like potential increase in hedging positions and weak downstream demand, but long - term prospects are optimistic considering low initial inventory and resilient consumption [2][3] - For sugar, the 25/26 global sugar market may be in a bear cycle with an oversupply pattern. Before the end of the year, it is expected to fluctuate, and there may be new lows next year [5][6] - For pulp, the fundamental improvement is insufficient, and the price is likely to continue to oscillate at a low level. Attention should be paid to the actual implementation of peak - season demand in the fourth quarter [7][8] Summary by Industry Cotton Market News and Key Data - Futures: The closing price of the cotton 2601 contract was 13,615 yuan/ton, up 80 yuan/ton (+0.59%) from the previous day [1] - Spot: The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B cotton was 14,627 yuan/ton, down 13 yuan/ton; the national average price was 14,825 yuan/ton, down 16 yuan/ton [1] - Market Information: In the 2025/26 season, the cotton - planting area in Mato Grosso, Brazil is expected to be 1.46 million hectares (21.9 million mu), a year - on - year reduction of 5.7%, while the output is expected to be 2.62 million tons, a slight increase of 2.6% [1] Market Analysis - International: Sino - US negotiations have made substantial progress, but the actual purchase volume of US cotton by China is unclear. The release of key data is postponed, and the short - term upward space of the outer market is limited due to supply pressure and weak export performance [2] - Domestic: The new - year cotton market starts with low inventory, but the supply is supplemented. The purchase price of seed cotton has stabilized and rebounded, but the short - term upward space of cotton prices is limited due to potential hedging positions and weak downstream demand [2] Strategy - A neutral strategy is recommended. In the short term, there is a possibility of a callback, while in the long term, cotton prices can be viewed optimistically [3] Sugar Market News and Key Data - Futures: The closing price of the sugar 2601 contract was 5441 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan/ton (-0.73%) from the previous day [4] - Spot: The spot price of sugar in Kunming, Yunnan was 5660 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton [4] - Market Information: The estimated total sugar production in the 2025/26 season in India (excluding the amount used for ethanol production) is 34.35 million tons, and the net production (after excluding ethanol usage) is 30.95 million tons [4] Market Analysis - Raw sugar: Supply surplus pressure has pushed the price below 15 cents. Although the sugar - making ratio in Brazil has declined in the short term, the long - term rebound momentum is limited due to overall northern hemisphere production increases [5] - Zhengzhou sugar: The impact of typhoons has subsided, and there is a strong expectation of domestic sugar production increase. However, the price has fallen near the production cost line, and the downward space is limited due to stricter syrup control policies [5] Strategy - A neutral strategy is recommended. It is expected to fluctuate before the end of the year, and there may be new lows next year [6] Pulp Market News and Key Data - Futures: The closing price of the pulp 2601 contract was 5360 yuan/ton, up 72 yuan/ton (+1.36%) from the previous day [6] - Spot: The spot price of Chilean Silver Star softwood pulp in Shandong was 5500 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Russian softwood pulp was 5045 yuan/ton, unchanged [6] - Market Information: The spot price of imported wood pulp was basically stable, with only minor adjustments [6] Market Analysis - Supply: Overseas pulp mills have announced price increases, production cuts, and conversion plans, but the actual transactions are not good, and the overall supply pattern remains loose [7] - Demand: Weak consumption in Europe and the United States and domestic demand weakness are the core factors suppressing pulp prices. During the peak season, downstream paper mills' procurement is cautious [7] Strategy - A neutral strategy is recommended. The pulp price is likely to continue to oscillate at a low level, and attention should be paid to the actual implementation of peak - season demand in the fourth quarter [8]

Core Viewpoint - The Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) soybean futures experienced a mild increase due to the U.S. government's decision to lower tariffs on certain products for one year, with the benchmark contract rising approximately 1.2% [1] Group 1: Tariff Adjustments - The U.S. White House announced two presidential executive orders on November 4, stating that from November 10, 2025, the 10% "fentanyl tariff" on Chinese goods will be eliminated, and the 24% "reciprocal tariff" on Chinese goods will be suspended for an additional year [1] - The State Council Tariff Commission confirmed that starting from November 10, 2025, at 1:01 PM, the additional tariff measures on imports from the U.S. will be adjusted, maintaining the 10% tariff while suspending the 24% tariff for one year [1] Group 2: Soybean Inventory and Market Conditions - As of October 31, the national major oil mills had an imported soybean inventory of 7.65 million tons, which decreased by 430,000 tons week-on-week and 470,000 tons month-on-month, but increased by 1.53 million tons year-on-year, surpassing the three-year average by 3.09 million tons [1] - The European Commission reported that as of November 2, the EU's soybean import volume for 2025/26 was 3.81 million tons, down from 4.59 million tons the previous year [1] Group 3: Market Influences - According to Everbright Futures, a strong U.S. dollar has also pressured the market [1] - The weekly export inspection report indicated that U.S. soybean export inspection volume was 965,000 tons, aligning with market expectations [1] - Brazilian soybean premiums have decreased, making near-month contracts more cost-effective compared to U.S. soybeans, which has further suppressed U.S. soybean prices [1]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views of the Report - Palm oil lacks driving forces and attention should be paid to short - term support [2]. - For soybean oil, US soybeans have stabilized and the price difference between soybean oil and palm oil is slowly returning [2]. - Both soybean meal and soybean are affected by tariff sentiment and will fluctuate [2]. - Corn will move in a volatile manner [2]. - India's sugar production is expected to recover significantly [2]. - Cotton is expected to fluctuate strongly [2]. - Eggs are in an adjustment phase [2]. - For live pigs, the spot contradictions are gradually being released, and a large reverse spread strategy is recommended [2]. - For peanuts, attention should be paid to the spot market [2]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Palm Oil and Soybean Oil - **Fundamental Data**: Palm oil's daily - session closing price was 8,590 yuan/ton with a - 0.30% change, and night - session closing price was 8,630 yuan/ton with a 0.47% change. Soybean oil's daily - session closing price was 8,138 yuan/ton with a 0.37% change, and night - session closing price was 8,156 yuan/ton with a 0.22% change [4]. - **Macro and Industry News**: The tariff on US imports will be adjusted, and Malaysia's palm oil production in October increased by 12.31% to 2 million tons. India's palm oil imports in October dropped to a five - year low. Affin Hwang IB expects palm oil prices to recover in Q1 2026 [5][7][8]. Soybean Meal and Soybean - **Fundamental Data**: DCE soybean's 2601 contract daily - session closing price was 4,123 yuan/ton (+47, + 1.15%), and night - session closing price was 4,139 yuan/ton (+62, + 1.52%). DCE soybean meal's 2601 contract daily - session closing price was 3,073 yuan/ton (+45, + 1.49%), and night - session closing price was 3,076 yuan/ton (+37, + 1.22%) [12]. - **Macro and Industry News**: China will adjust the tariff on US products, and the market's short - term sentiment has improved, but the fundamentals remain cautious [12][14]. Corn - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of C2601 was 2,134 yuan/ton (-0.23%) during the day and 2,139 yuan/ton (+0.23%) at night. The closing price of C2603 was 2,162 yuan/ton (-0.23%) during the day and 2,168 yuan/ton (+0.28%) at night [16]. - **Macro and Industry News**: Corn prices in different regions have different performance, and the prices of imported sorghum and barley are also provided [17]. Sugar - **Fundamental Data**: The raw sugar price was 14.12 cents/pound (-0.1), the mainstream spot price was 5,680 yuan/ton (-10), and the futures main - contract price was 5,441 yuan/ton (-40) [19]. - **Macro and Industry News**: Brazil's sugar production in the second half of September increased by 11% year - on - year, and its exports decreased. China's sugar imports in September were 550,000 tons (+150,000 tons) [19]. Cotton - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of CF2601 was 13,615 yuan/ton (0.59%) during the day and 13,630 yuan/ton (0.11%) at night. The closing price of CY2601 was 19,820 yuan/ton (0.13%) during the day and 19,890 yuan/ton (0.35%) at night [24]. - **Macro and Industry News**: The spot trading of low - basis cotton is good, and the price of pure - cotton yarn is stable. The performance of the Xinjiang and inland markets is different [25]. Eggs - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of egg 2512 was 3,217 yuan/500 kg (1.93%), and the closing price of egg 2601 was 3,509 yuan/500 kg (1.23%) [30]. - **Macro and Industry News**: No specific macro and industry news is provided. Live Pigs - **Fundamental Data**: The Henan spot price was 11,880 yuan/ton (-100), the Sichuan spot price was 11,500 yuan/ton (-150), and the Guangdong spot price was 12,560 yuan/ton (-200). The price of live pigs 2601 was 11,945 yuan/ton (260) [32]. - **Macro and Industry News**: The national feed output in September was 30.36 million tons, with a month - on - month increase of 3.4% and a year - on - year increase of 5% [33]. Peanuts - **Fundamental Data**: The price of PK601 was 7,802 yuan/ton (-0.10%), and the price of PK603 was 7,848 yuan/ton (-0.18%) [36]. - **Macro and Industry News**: The peanut market in different regions has different performance, with some regions having stable prices and some having weak prices [37].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core Viewpoints - The palm oil market lacks driving forces, and short - term support levels should be monitored. The soybean oil market is stabilizing, and the price gap between soybean oil and palm oil is gradually narrowing [1]. - After the recent price decline due to increased production, the price of crude palm oil may recover in the first quarter of 2026, supported by the seasonal low - production period. Affin Hwang IB estimates the average price of crude palm oil to be between 4,200 - 4,350 ringgit per ton in 2025 and 4,350 - 4,450 ringgit per ton in 2026 [5]. - The market sentiment has improved in the short term, but the fundamentals remain cautious. The continued rebound of soybean prices depends on China's actual procurement volume and the export rhythm of US soybeans [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Prices**: The closing price of the palm oil main contract was 8,590 yuan/ton (down 0.30% during the day session) and 8,630 yuan/ton (up 0.47% during the night session); the soybean oil main contract was 8,138 yuan/ton (up 0.37% during the day session) and 8,156 yuan/ton (up 0.22% during the night session); the rapeseed oil main contract was 9,407 yuan/ton (down 0.38% during the day session) and 9,438 yuan/ton (up 0.33% during the night session). The Malaysian palm oil main contract was 4,109 ringgit/ton (down 0.84% during the day session) and 4,122 ringgit/ton (up 0.34% during the night session), and the CBOT soybean oil main contract was 49.71 cents/pound (up 0.36%) [1]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of the palm oil main contract was 546,167 lots (a decrease of 10,434 lots), and the open interest was 423,090 lots (an increase of 17,113 lots); the soybean oil main contract had a trading volume of 248,485 lots (a decrease of 33,875 lots) and an open interest of 482,137 lots (an increase of 1,482 lots); the rapeseed oil main contract had a trading volume of 142,702 lots (a decrease of 20,827 lots) and an open interest of 214,565 lots (an increase of 1,525 lots) [1]. - **Spot Prices**: The spot price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong was 8,550 yuan/ton (a decrease of 20 yuan/ton); the price of first - grade soybean oil in Guangdong was 8,480 yuan/ton (a decrease of 40 yuan/ton); the price of fourth - grade imported rapeseed oil in Guangxi was 9,850 yuan/ton (a decrease of 20 yuan/ton); the FOB price of Malaysian palm oil was 1,035 US dollars/ton (an increase of 5 US dollars/ton) [1]. - **Basis**: The basis of palm oil in Guangdong was - 40 yuan/ton; the basis of soybean oil in Guangdong was 342 yuan/ton; the basis of rapeseed oil in Guangxi was 443 yuan/ton [1]. - **Price Spreads**: The spread between rapeseed oil and palm oil futures main contracts was 817 yuan/ton; the spread between soybean oil and palm oil futures main contracts was - 452 yuan/ton; the 1 - 5 spread of palm oil was - 106 yuan/ton; the 1 - 5 spread of soybean oil was 188 yuan/ton; the 1 - 5 spread of rapeseed oil was 345 yuan/ton [1]. 3.2 Macro and Industry News - The Tariff Policy Commission of the State Council announced that starting from 13:01 on November 10, 2025, it will adjust the additional tariff measures on imported goods originating from the United States. The 24% additional tariff rate on US goods will be suspended for another year, while the 10% additional tariff rate will be retained [2][6]. - Malaysia's palm oil production from October 1 - 31, 2025, is estimated to increase by 12.31% to 2.07 million tons, reaching an eight - year high. The estimated production for the 2025/26 season is 19.2 million tons, with an estimated range of 18.7 - 19.7 million tons. From January to September 2025, the cumulative production of Malaysian crude palm oil was 14.5 million tons, a year - on - year increase of only 0.3% [4]. - India's palm oil imports in October 2025 dropped to a five - year low due to increased domestic inventory, weak demand in the food industry, and a narrowing price gap with other oilseeds. The total import volume, including crude and refined palm oil, was 750,000 tons, lower than 980,000 tons in September [4]. - On Thursday, CBOT soybean futures closed slightly higher, with the benchmark contract up 1.2%. Analysts expect the US Department of Agriculture's export sales report to show that the net export sales volume of US soybeans for the 2025/26 season in the week ending October 30, 2025, will be between 400,000 and 2 million tons. Traders estimated that speculative funds net - bought 8,500 lots of soybeans on Wednesday [6]. 3.3 Trend Intensity The trend intensity of palm oil is 0, and the trend intensity of soybean oil is 0, indicating a neutral trend for both [7].