2026年01月19日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-贵金属及基本金属 观点与策略 | 黄金：避险情绪回升 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 白银：关税预期波动 | 2 | | 铜：美元走强，价格承压 | 4 | | 锌：区间震荡 | 6 | | 铅：海外库存减少，限制价格回落 | 8 | | 锡：关注资源收储 | 9 | | 铝：高位磨盘 | 10 | | 氧化铝：共振下行 | 10 | | 铸造铝合金：跟随电解铝 | 10 | | 铂：ETF较大幅度流出，上方承压 | 12 | | 钯：跟随区间震荡 | 12 | | 镍：印尼言论反复扰动情绪，镍价宽幅震荡运行 | 14 | | 不锈钢：盘面锚定矿端矛盾，镍铁跟涨支撑重心 | 14 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 商 品 研 究 商 品 研 究 2026 年 1 月 19 日 黄金：避险情绪回升 白银：关税预期波动 刘雨萱 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020476 liuyuxuan023982@gtjas.com 【基本面跟踪】 贵金属基本面数据 | | | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨幅 | 昨日夜盘收 ...

Core Viewpoint - The prices of gold, copper, and aluminum are rising, indicating a strong performance in the precious and industrial metals sector, with expectations of a super cycle similar to 2006-2007 driven by AI and industrial metal demand [1] Group 1: Market Performance - As of January 19, gold ETF Huaxia (518850) increased by 1.4%, and the industrial metals ETF (516650) rose by 0.94% [1] - The copper price has reached a historical high, although the London copper market may not see significant upward movement [1] Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - Global major mines are experiencing frequent accidents, leading to an expected reduction of 200,000 tons in supply by Q4 2025, translating to a quarterly decrease of approximately 3%-4% in copper production [1] - The macroeconomic environment, including potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, is expected to support copper prices, with a forecasted continued depreciation of the US dollar [1] Group 3: Investment Opportunities - Copper is identified as a key metal for energy transition, holding strategic value under the "14th Five-Year Plan" policy guidance [1] - The strong supply-demand fundamentals, along with ongoing macro policy support in China, are likely to stimulate sectors such as electric infrastructure, new energy vehicles, and home appliance consumption [1] Group 4: ETF Fund Performance - The industrial metals ETF (516650) tracks the CSI segmented industrial metals theme index, with a combined gold, copper, and aluminum content of 61.29%, the highest in the market [2] - The fund has seen significant capital inflow, with its latest scale reaching 13.77 billion, an increase of over 71.7 billion from the end of 2025, representing a year-to-date growth rate of over 108.7%, leading the sector [2]

北京商报 网友："下一个会不会是投资铁条、投资油条？" 1月19日，#金银大涨后铜条悄悄火了#冲上热搜。最近，贵金属市场热潮涌动，特别是黄金和白银价格 一路走高，成为大众追捧的投资焦点。而在这股热潮之下，又一种金属悄悄"出圈"——投资铜条。 相关话题下，有网友说："一开始以为是段子，结果发现是真的"。还有网友开玩笑说："再也不敢叫破 铜烂铁了"。 据悉，深圳水贝是国内最大的黄金珠宝集散地，就在这个月，金座、银座、特力等市场的不少商家试探 性地推出了纯铜999.9的投资铜条，规格有500克和1000克，不过以1000克居多，一根1000克的投资铜条 的报价从180元至280元。 不过大部分商家没有铜条现货，需要预订，预订时间3至7天不等。 一位水贝商家说，这两天问的人比较多，真正下单的人很少。大家普遍比较关心的是将来的回收问题。 "这还是遍地黄金的水贝吗？"目前只有少数商家推出了投资铜条，除了网友，就连市场里的商家都觉得 离谱。 不过杭州市场，也有投资客开始关注投资铜条。 杭州老福林打金店老板老林说，前天有客人在买银条时候讲到最近铜在涨价，问店里有没有投资铜条 卖。"在大众认知里铜很廉价，买得少没有多少增值，买 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the guidance issued by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and other departments in China regarding the construction of zero-carbon factories, aiming to enhance low-carbon competitiveness and adapt to international trade rules by 2030 [1][3]. Group 1: Overall Requirements - The initiative is guided by Xi Jinping's thoughts on ecological civilization and aims to promote green and low-carbon transformation in key industries, enhancing productivity and achieving carbon peak and neutrality goals [4][5]. - The construction of zero-carbon factories will follow principles such as tailored strategies, innovation-driven approaches, and systematic promotion to ensure effective low-carbon transitions [6][7]. Group 2: Main Goals - From 2026, a selection of zero-carbon factories will be established as benchmarks, with a focus on industries like automotive, lithium batteries, photovoltaics, electronics, light industry, machinery, and computing facilities by 2027 [8][9]. - By 2030, the initiative will expand to include industries such as steel, non-ferrous metals, petrochemicals, building materials, and textiles, exploring new decarbonization pathways [9][10]. Group 3: Construction Pathways - A carbon emission accounting management system will be established to provide accurate data for zero-carbon factory construction, including direct and indirect emissions [11]. - The initiative encourages the transition to green and low-carbon energy structures, promoting the use of renewable energy sources and technologies [12]. - Energy efficiency will be significantly improved through systematic optimization of production processes and the adoption of advanced technologies [13]. - The analysis of carbon footprints for key products will be promoted to drive collaborative decarbonization across the supply chain [14]. - Digitalization and smart technologies will be leveraged to enhance carbon management and operational efficiency [15]. - Carbon offsetting and information disclosure will be implemented to maintain near-zero emissions and improve sustainability reporting [16]. Group 4: Work Requirements - Local authorities are encouraged to develop specific implementation plans for zero-carbon factory construction, promoting collaboration among government, enterprises, and markets [16][18]. - A standard system will be established to support zero-carbon factory management and evaluation, ensuring alignment with international standards [18]. - The promotion of comprehensive services for energy saving and carbon reduction will be encouraged, facilitating technology transfer and market services [18].

Core Viewpoint - The joint issuance of the "Guiding Opinions on the Construction of Zero Carbon Factories" aims to enhance energy conservation and carbon reduction in the industrial and information sectors, promoting green and low-carbon transformation in key industries and fostering new productive forces [1]. Group 1: Definition and Concept - Zero carbon factory construction refers to the process of continuously reducing carbon dioxide emissions through technological innovation, structural adjustments, and management optimization, aiming for near-zero emissions rather than absolute zero [2]. Group 2: Implementation Phases - The guiding opinions outline a phased approach for cultivating zero carbon factories, starting with the selection of benchmark factories in 2026, followed by the establishment of zero carbon factories in sectors such as automotive, lithium batteries, photovoltaics, and electronics by 2027, and expanding to traditional high-energy industries like steel and petrochemicals by 2030 [3]. Group 3: Construction Pathways - Six major directions for construction are proposed, including establishing a carbon accounting system, optimizing energy structure for source reduction, enhancing energy efficiency for process decarbonization, conducting carbon footprint analysis for collaborative reduction, leveraging digitalization for intelligent carbon control, and implementing carbon offsetting and information disclosure for continuous improvement [4]. Group 4: Work Requirements - The guiding opinions also outline work requirements focusing on organizational implementation, improving standard systems, and promoting comprehensive energy-saving and carbon reduction services. Some regions have already initiated near-zero carbon factory pilot projects, with over 30 related group standards established to lay the foundation for nationwide promotion [5].

Core Viewpoint - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, along with other governmental bodies, has issued guidelines for the construction of zero-carbon factories, aiming to enhance energy efficiency and promote green transformation in key industries, thereby supporting carbon peak and carbon neutrality goals [1][4]. Group 1: Guidelines and Principles - The construction of zero-carbon factories will follow four principles: tailored strategies for different industries, systematic advancement, innovation-driven and technology-enabled approaches, and a commitment to transparency and standardization [2]. - A phased approach will be implemented, prioritizing industries with urgent decarbonization needs and lower decarbonization difficulties, with a gradual expansion to more challenging sectors [2][9]. Group 2: Goals and Timeline - By 2026, a selection of zero-carbon factories will be identified to serve as benchmarks, with a target to establish a number of such factories in sectors like automotive, lithium batteries, photovoltaics, electronics, light industry, machinery, and computing facilities by 2027 [2][9]. - By 2030, the initiative aims to extend to high-energy-consuming industries such as steel, non-ferrous metals, petrochemicals, building materials, and textiles, exploring new decarbonization pathways [2][9]. Group 3: Construction Pathways - Key pathways for zero-carbon factory construction include establishing a carbon emission accounting management system, enhancing the green and low-carbon transformation of energy structures, improving energy efficiency, conducting carbon footprint analyses, advancing digitalization, and implementing carbon offsetting and information disclosure [3][9]. Group 4: Implementation and Support - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology will collaborate with other departments to ensure the effective implementation of the guidelines, encouraging local governments to develop specific plans for zero-carbon factory construction [11][12]. - There will be a focus on developing a standard system for zero-carbon factories and promoting comprehensive energy-saving and carbon-reduction services through collaboration with industry associations and research institutions [12].

注意看！"破铜烂铁"正在上演逆袭神话！ 当黄金白银涨到让人高攀不起，深圳水贝的商家和杭州的投 资客，竟然悄悄盯上了投资铜条！一公斤报价180到280元，问的人络绎不绝。网友惊呼：以后再也不敢 小看铜了！ 但数据背后，是冰火两重天： · 冰冷现实：商家坦言，问的人多，买的人极少。关键难题在于：未来如何回收？ 一位资深投资客算了 一笔账：按现在200元/公斤的溢价，铜价得涨到20万元/吨才能回本，这几乎是个"不可能的任务"。 帮主观点：这波"铜条热"，更像是贵金属狂潮下的一个投机泡沫和话题炒作。铜的核心逻辑是工业需求 （如电力、新能源），而非黄金的货币属性。它适合机构基于全球宏观布局，却极不适合普通人"一斤 一斤"囤积。高溢价和流通性差，是它作为个人投资品的致命伤。 灵魂拷问：面对这个看似"离谱"的新热点，你会认为这是紧跟趋势的另类投资机会，还是坚决认为这就 是一个纯属凑热闹的"大坑"？评论区说说你的看法！ 我是帮主郑重，关注我，避开喧嚣，抓住真正的主线。 · 火热一面：铜价一年狂飙34%，沪铜期货历史性突破10万元/吨。稀有金属铟锭，过去五年涨幅更是高 达233%。 ...

Report Summary 1. Core View - The U.S. has postponed imposing tariffs on critical mineral imports, and Shanghai copper prices have weakened [1] 2. Key Points by Category Price Data - After the contract change of Shanghai copper, the copper spot has turned to a discount, and the spot market trading is sluggish [9] - This week, the LME copper 0 - 3M premium continued to strengthen on a week - on - week basis [13] Fundamental Data - The average weekly price of the copper concentrate TC index decreased by $1.12/ton to -$46.53/ton on a week - on - week basis and remained low [15] - According to Steel Union, the port inventory of copper concentrate this week was 54.7 million tons, an increase of 11.9 million tons on a week - on - week basis and lower on a year - on - year basis [18] - The spread between refined and scrap copper has widened [21] - China's electrolytic copper production in January is expected to decrease on a month - on - month basis but increase on a year - on - year basis [23] - From January to December, the cumulative imports of unwrought copper and copper products were 5.321 billion tons, a year - on - year decrease of 6.4% [26] - This week, the spot and bonded area inventories of electrolytic copper increased on a week - on - week basis [27] - LME copper inventories have increased, and COMEX copper inventories continue to accumulate [29] - Driven by post - holiday复产, the operating rate of refined copper rods rebounded this week [30] - From January 1st to 11th, the retail sales of new energy passenger vehicles in the national market decreased by 38% on a year - on - year basis [31] - The overall production schedule of photovoltaic modules in January is expected to decline; the export tax refund for photovoltaic value - added tax will be cancelled starting from April [32] - The production schedules of household air conditioners in January and February are differentiated, with the cumulative production basically flat [34] Macroeconomic Data - The central bank has lowered the policy tool interest rate by 25 basis points and stated that there is still room for reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts this year [36] - The core CPI growth rate in the U.S. in December was lower than expected, with a year - on - year increase of 2.6%, and the CPI increased by 2.7% year - on - year, in line with expectations [38] - The front - runner for the Federal Reserve Chairman position has changed, and Trump has said that he hopes Hassett will continue to serve as a White House advisor [41]

Group 1 - Nvidia has corrected its technical paper regarding copper demand in data centers, adjusting the copper busbar usage for a traditional 1 GW data center from 500,000 tons to 200 tons, indicating a significant downward revision in copper demand expectations [1] - The previous estimate of 500,000 tons per GW was identified as a substantial error, and the current revision only accounts for busbar copper usage, excluding other components, leading to a lack of precise market estimates for copper usage per GW [1] - Recent copper price declines are attributed to liquidity and trading noise, with the actual bearish impact on market logic being limited, as the long-term narrative remains favorable for copper [1] Group 2 - The Penghua Nonferrous ETF closely tracks the National Securities Nonferrous Metals Industry Index, which includes 50 securities from the nonferrous metals sector, reflecting the overall performance of listed companies in this industry [2] - As of December 31, 2025, the top ten weighted stocks in the National Securities Nonferrous Metals Industry Index include Zijin Mining, Luoyang Molybdenum, Northern Rare Earth, and others, collectively accounting for 51.65% of the index [2]

截至2026年1月19日 11:13，中证全指自由现金流指数(932365)强势上涨1.08%，成分股新华百货上涨 9.99%，中闽能源上涨9.93%，平高电气上涨9.76%，九丰能源，常宝股份等个股跟涨。自由现金流ETF 基金(159233)上涨1.28%，最新价报1.26元。 自由现金流ETF基金（159233）跟踪中证自由现金流指数，相较于传统红利与宽基指数，该指数更聚焦 顺周期行业，在主题赛道资金轮动的市场环境下，可作为底仓配置的工具，助力投资者捕捉经济复苏背 景下的结构性机会。 今日盘面上，电力设备及新能源、石油石化及有色金属等行业为其涨幅主要贡献力量。近期消息面亦对 顺周期板块形成积极支撑： 在当前市场环境下，自由现金流ETF基金（159233）以自由现金流为核心筛选指标，兼顾盈利质量与行 业景气，为投资者提供了一键布局顺周期优质资产的便利工具，备受市场关注。 | 股票代码 | 股票简称 | 涨跌幅 | 权重 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 600938 | 中国海油 | 0.38% | 10.16% | | 000333 | 美的集团 | 0.19% | 7.88% ...