Core Insights - The global silver market is experiencing a significant supply-demand imbalance, leading to a dramatic price surge, with silver inventories plummeting by 62% to 280 million ounces, the lowest level in a decade [1][4] - The current market frenzy is characterized by extreme shortages, with companies and individuals scrambling to secure silver, resulting in a spot premium of $12 per ounce in Shanghai [1][3] Supply and Demand Dynamics - The silver shortage is pervasive, affecting both the end market and production sources, with reports of zero inventory at certain smelting plants [1][3] - The demand from the photovoltaic and electric vehicle industries is consuming 55% of global silver supply, with inventory levels only sufficient for 1.2 months of usage [5][7] - The consumption of silver in electric vehicles has increased by 71%, with each vehicle now requiring 25-50 grams of silver [5] Price Movements - London silver spot prices have surged past $39 per ounce, marking a 30% increase over the past six months, while Shanghai silver futures have also seen significant price hikes [4] - The A-share silver sector has become a hotspot for speculative trading, with substantial inflows of capital and notable price increases in silver-related stocks [4] Market Behavior - Retail interest in silver has surged, with consumers actively purchasing silver jewelry and investment bars, leading to increased sales volumes in various markets [3][4] - The market is witnessing a shift where younger investors view silver as an alternative investment, especially as gold prices rise [4] Industry Challenges - The silver market's growth is accompanied by immense pressure on the supply chain, with companies facing challenges in securing raw materials [5][7] - Technological advancements aimed at reducing silver consumption in production processes are ongoing, but significant hurdles remain [7]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For domestic assets, there are mainly structural opportunities; in the second half of the year, the policy - driven logic is strengthened, and the probability of incremental policy implementation is higher in the fourth quarter. Overseas, concerns about the decline in US employment and economic slowdown are rising, and the expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut in the second half of the year is increasing, which is beneficial to gold. In the long - term, the weak US dollar pattern continues, and attention should be paid to non - US dollar assets [7]. - Most domestic commodity futures declined, with crude oil leading the decline [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro Highlights - **Overseas Macro**: In the first half of the week, the market's bets on the Fed's interest rate cut declined as the US Q2 GDP was better than expected, and the Fed's July meeting sent hawkish signals. However, the July non - farm payrolls were below expectations, increasing concerns about the US economic downturn and the Fed's interest rate cut. Attention should be paid to US inflation data, the Jackson Hole meeting, and other events [7]. - **Domestic Macro**: Against the backdrop of stable and progressive domestic economic operation in the first half of the year, the tone of the July Politburo meeting was to improve the quality and speed of using existing policies, with relatively limited incremental policies. The July composite PMI was still above the critical point. The negotiation progress between the US and other economies needs to be monitored [7]. - **Asset Views**: Domestic assets present mainly structural opportunities. Overseas, the rising expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut is beneficial to gold. In the long - term, the weak US dollar pattern continues, and non - US dollar assets should be focused on [7]. 3.2 Viewpoint Highlights 3.2.1 Financial Sector - **Stock Index Futures**: After event settlement, capital congestion is released. With insufficient incremental funds, it is expected to rise in a volatile manner [8]. - **Stock Index Options**: The collar strategy strengthens the volatility structure. With rising volatility, it is expected to move in a volatile manner [8]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The market continues to digest the information from the Politburo meeting. It is expected to move in a volatile manner, considering factors such as unexpected tariffs, supply, and monetary easing [8]. 3.2.2 Precious Metals Sector - **Gold/Silver**: Precious metals are strengthening in a volatile manner. The Trump tariff policy and the Fed's monetary policy should be monitored. It is expected to rise in a volatile manner [8]. 3.2.3 Shipping Sector - **Container Shipping to Europe**: Attention should be paid to the game between peak - season expectations and price - increase implementation. It is expected to move in a volatile manner, considering tariff policies and shipping companies' pricing strategies [8]. 3.2.4 Black Building Materials Sector - **Steel**: After the meeting results are settled, attention should be paid to production - restriction disturbances. It is expected to move in a volatile manner, considering factors such as special - bond issuance, steel exports, and iron - water production [8]. - **Iron Ore**: Iron - water production has slightly decreased, and market sentiment has cooled. It is expected to move in a volatile manner, considering factors such as overseas mine production and transportation, domestic iron - water production, and policy dynamics [8]. - **Coke**: Supply and demand remain tight, and the fifth round of price increases has started. It is expected to move in a volatile manner, considering factors such as steel - mill production, coking costs, and macro - sentiment [8]. - **Coking Coal**: Market sentiment has cooled, and the futures price has significantly corrected. It is expected to move in a volatile manner, considering factors such as steel - mill production, coal - mine safety inspections, and macro - sentiment [8]. - **Silicon Iron**: The supply - demand contradiction is acceptable. Attention should be paid to cost adjustments. It is expected to move in a volatile manner, considering raw - material costs and steel - procurement situations [8]. - **Manganese Silicon**: Market sentiment has cooled, and there are still concerns about supply and demand. It is expected to move in a volatile manner, considering cost prices and overseas quotes [8]. - **Glass**: The futures price has declined, and spot sales have started to weaken. It is expected to move in a volatile manner, considering spot sales [8]. - **Soda Ash**: Freight has risen in the short - term, supporting the spot price. It is expected to move in a volatile manner, considering soda - ash inventory [8]. 3.2.5 Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials Sector - **Copper**: A non - ferrous metal growth - stabilization plan is about to be introduced, supporting the copper price. It is expected to move in a volatile manner, considering supply disturbances, domestic policies, and the Fed's monetary policy [8]. - **Alumina**: Market sentiment is fluctuating, and the alumina price is adjusting at a high level. It is expected to move in a volatile manner, considering factors such as unexpected ore production resumption and electrolytic - aluminum production resumption [8]. - **Aluminum**: The sentiment boost has slowed down, and the aluminum price has declined. It is expected to move in a volatile manner, considering macro - risks, supply disturbances, and demand [8]. - **Zinc**: Macro - sentiment persists, and the zinc price is oscillating at a high level. It is expected to move in a volatile manner, considering macro - risks and unexpected zinc - ore supply recovery [8]. - **Lead**: Supply and demand are relatively loose, and the lead price is moving in a volatile manner. It is expected to move in a volatile manner, considering supply - side disturbances and other factors [8]. - **Nickel**: The "anti - involution" trading has slowed down, and the nickel price is moving in a wide - range volatile manner. It is expected to move in a volatile manner, considering factors such as unexpected supply - side production cuts [8]. - **Stainless Steel**: The nickel - iron price has slightly rebounded, and the stainless - steel futures price is moving in a volatile manner. It is expected to move in a volatile manner, considering Indonesian policies and demand growth [8]. - **Tin**: The LME inventory continues to decline, and the tin price is strengthening in a volatile manner. It is expected to move in a volatile manner, considering the resumption of production in Wa State and demand improvement [8]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The "anti - involution" sentiment still exists, and the silicon price has rebounded. It is expected to move in a volatile manner, considering unexpected supply - side production cuts and photovoltaic installation [8]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: Market sentiment is fluctuating, and the lithium price has corrected after rising. It is expected to move in a volatile manner, considering factors such as unexpected demand and supply disturbances [8]. 3.2.6 Energy and Chemical Sector - **Crude Oil**: Geopolitical support continues. Attention should be paid to Russian oil risks. It is expected to move in a volatile manner, considering OPEC+ production policies and Middle - East geopolitical situations [10]. - **LPG**: Supply pressure persists, and the cost side dominates the rhythm. It is expected to move in a volatile manner, considering the cost of crude oil and overseas propane [10]. - **Asphalt**: Crude oil prices have declined, and there is pressure from increased asphalt production. The futures price is under downward pressure. It is expected to decline, considering unexpected demand [10]. - **High - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: The possibility of a sharp decline in the high - sulfur fuel oil crack spread is increasing. It is expected to decline, considering crude oil and natural gas prices [10]. - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: The low - sulfur fuel oil futures price has weakened following crude oil. It is expected to decline, considering crude oil and natural gas prices [10]. - **Methanol**: There is a short - term differentiation between the inland and ports. It is expected to move in a volatile manner, considering macro - energy and upstream - downstream device dynamics [10]. - **Urea**: Domestic supply and demand cannot provide strong support, and export - driven effects are below expectations. It is expected to move in a volatile manner, considering export policies and capacity elimination [10]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: Typhoons have affected the arrival rhythm, and inventory accumulation is expected in August. It is expected to move in a volatile manner, considering port inventory accumulation inflection points and device recovery [10]. - **PX**: Market sentiment has cooled, and the price has returned to fundamental pricing. It is expected to move in a volatile manner, considering downstream PTA maintenance schedules and gasoline profit seasonality [10]. - **PTA**: Multiple devices have unexpectedly shut down, and processing fees are still under pressure. It is expected to move in a volatile manner, considering mainstream device production cuts and polyester joint production cuts [10]. - **Short - Fiber**: Downstream demand improvement is limited, and there is an expectation of continuous inventory accumulation. It is expected to move in a volatile manner, considering downstream yarn - mill purchasing rhythms and开工 [10]. - **Bottle Chip**: The production reduction scale in August continues to exceed 20%, strengthening the support for processing fees. It is expected to move in a volatile manner, considering future bottle - chip production [10]. - **Propylene**: Weak propane suppresses it, and it is expected to move in a volatile manner in the short - term, considering oil prices and domestic macro - factors [10]. - **PP**: The "anti - involution" sentiment has changed, and the PP price has declined in a volatile manner. It is expected to move in a volatile manner, considering oil prices and domestic and overseas macro - factors [10]. - **Plastic**: Macro - support has weakened, and the plastic price has declined in a volatile manner. It is expected to move in a volatile manner, considering oil prices and domestic and overseas macro - factors [10]. - **Styrene**: The commodity sentiment has improved. Attention should be paid to the implementation of policy details. It is expected to move in a volatile manner, considering oil prices, macro - policies, and device dynamics [10]. - **PVC**: It has returned to weak - reality pricing, and the futures price is declining in a volatile manner. It is expected to move in a volatile manner, considering expectations, costs, and supply [10]. - **Caustic Soda**: Spot pressure is emerging, and the caustic - soda price is moving weakly. It is expected to move in a volatile manner, considering market sentiment, production, and demand [10]. 3.2.7 Agricultural Sector - **Oils and Fats**: Attention should be paid to the palm oil production in Malaysia. Recently, oils and fats are expected to move in a volatile consolidation. It is expected to move in a volatile manner, considering US soybean weather and Malaysian palm oil production and demand data [10]. - **Protein Meal**: The market continues the pattern of strong domestic and weak overseas. It is expected to move in a volatile manner, considering US soybean weather and domestic demand [10]. - **Corn/Starch**: Market sentiment continues to be weak. It is expected to move in a volatile manner, considering factors such as unexpected demand and weather [10]. - **Live Pigs**: Inventory pressure persists, and the pig price is oscillating at a low level. It is expected to move in a volatile manner, considering breeding sentiment, epidemics, and policies [10]. - **Rubber**: The rubber price is stabilizing following commodities. It is expected to move in a volatile manner, considering production - area weather, raw - material prices, and macro - changes [10]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: The driving factors are unclear, and the futures price is moving in a volatile manner. It is expected to move in a volatile manner, considering significant fluctuations in crude oil prices [10]. - **Pulp**: It mainly follows the macro - trend. Attention should be paid to reverse arbitrage during the decline. It is expected to move in a volatile manner, considering macro - economic changes and US dollar - denominated quotes [10]. - **Cotton**: The cotton price and the price difference between months have rebounded. It is expected to move in a volatile manner, considering demand and inventory [10]. - **Sugar**: Supply pressure is increasing marginally, and the sugar price is under pressure. It is expected to move in a volatile manner, considering imports [10]. - **Logs**: The bullish sentiment is strong, and the log futures price is rising with increasing positions. It is expected to decline in a volatile manner, considering shipment and dispatch volumes [4].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Overseas macro: Market concerns about US employment and economic slowdown are rising, leading to an increase in expectations for Fed rate cuts in the second half of the year, which is favorable for gold. In the long term, the weak US dollar pattern continues, and attention should be paid to non - US dollar assets [5]. - Domestic macro: In the context of stable and progressive domestic economic operation in the first half of the year, the overall tone of the Politburo meeting in July is to improve the quality and speed of using existing policies, with relatively limited incremental policies. The composite PMI in July remains above the critical point [5]. - Asset viewpoints: For domestic assets, there are mainly structural opportunities. In the second half of the year, the policy - driven logic is strengthened, and the probability of incremental policy implementation is higher in the fourth quarter [5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Financial Market and Commodity Price Changes - **Equity Index Futures**: The CSI 300 futures closed at 4029.6, down 0.68% daily, 2.10% weekly, 0.68% monthly, up 7.77% quarterly, and 2.77% year - to - date. The Shanghai 50 futures and the CSI 500 futures also showed different degrees of decline, while the CSI 1000 futures rose 0.07% daily [3]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bond futures had different price changes, with the 10 - year treasury bond futures down 0.05% daily [3]. - **Foreign Exchange**: The US dollar index was at 98.69, down 1.36% daily, 1.04% weekly. The US dollar intermediate price had a 2 - pip daily increase [3]. - **Interest Rates**: The 10 - year Chinese government bond yield was 1.71, up 0.2 bp daily. The 10 - year US government bond yield was 4.23, down 14 bp daily [3]. - **Commodities**: In the domestic commodity market, coal rose 1.93% daily, while industrial silicon fell 2.97% daily. In the overseas commodity market, NYMEX WTI crude oil was at 67.26, down 3.03% daily [3]. 3.2 Macro Analysis - **Overseas Macro**: In the first half of the week, market bets on Fed rate cuts declined due to better - than - expected Q2 GDP, tariff easing, and hawkish signals from the Fed's July meeting. However, the July non - farm payrolls were below expectations, increasing market concerns about the US economic downturn and Fed rate cuts. Key events to watch include US inflation data in August, the Jackson Hole meeting, and subsequent non - farm payrolls [5]. - **Domestic Macro**: After the Politburo meeting in July, the overall policy tone focuses on using existing policies more effectively, with relatively few incremental policies. The composite PMI in July remains above the critical point, and attention should be paid to the progress of economic negotiations between the US and other economies [5]. 3.3 Asset Views - **Domestic Assets**: There are mainly structural opportunities. Policy - driven logic will be strengthened in the second half of the year, and the probability of incremental policy implementation is higher in the fourth quarter [5]. - **Overseas Assets**: Market concerns about US employment and economic slowdown are rising, increasing expectations for Fed rate cuts in the second half of the year, which is favorable for gold. In the long term, the weak US dollar pattern continues, and attention should be paid to non - US dollar assets [5]. 3.4 Sector and Variety Analysis - **Financial Sector**: Stock index futures are expected to rise in a volatile manner, stock index options will be volatile, and treasury bond futures will also be in a volatile state [6]. - **Precious Metals Sector**: Gold and silver are in a short - term adjustment phase and are expected to be volatile [6]. - **Shipping Sector**: The container shipping to Europe route is in a state of game between peak - season expectations and price - rise implementation, and is expected to be volatile [6]. - **Black Building Materials Sector**: Most varieties such as steel, iron ore, and coke are expected to be volatile, with their fundamentals and market sentiments changing [6]. - **Non - ferrous and New Materials Sector**: Most non - ferrous metal varieties are expected to be volatile, affected by factors such as supply disturbances and policy expectations [6]. - **Energy and Chemical Sector**: Crude oil supply is increasing, and domestic chemical products are expected to benefit from stable - growth expectations. Most varieties are expected to be volatile, while asphalt and high - sulfur and low - sulfur fuel oils are expected to decline [8]. - **Agricultural Sector**: Most agricultural products are expected to be volatile, affected by factors such as weather, trade policies, and supply - demand relationships [8].

Group 1 - Silver prices have surged this year, with London spot silver prices exceeding $39 per ounce, marking a 13-year high, leading to increased sales of silver-related products [1] - In a silver jewelry wholesale store in Shanghai, silver prices have risen by 30% since the beginning of the year, with monthly shipments exceeding 10,000 pieces, particularly favored are "small weight" and "new Chinese style" silver products [3] - In Yongxing County, Hunan, which accounts for 25% of the national silver output, a "cultural tourism + silver" consumption model has been developed, significantly boosting local silver consumption during the summer tourism season [5] Group 2 - A local silver sales company in Hunan reports daily foot traffic ranging from 500 to 800 people, with two main sales categories experiencing growth: investment products like silver ingots and bars, and decorative items such as electroplated gold and cloisonné, with a year-on-year increase of over 20% [9] - The price of silver has increased from over 7 yuan per gram to 8.7 yuan per gram, reflecting the rising costs impacting consumer purchasing behavior [7]

【国际黄金，白银走势分析】 周一（8月4日）现货黄金高位震荡。上周五现货黄金价格飙升，主要不仅受美国非农数据爆冷，提振美 联储降息希望，还有新关税公告刺激避险需求推动。全球经济的不确定性、美元的疲软以及美联储降息 预期的升温，共同为黄金的上涨提供了强劲动能。 黄金技术分析：上周五黄金市场呈现出强势上涨态势：早盘开盘于3290美元/盎司后小幅回落，最低回 踩至3281一线低点后震荡上涨。美盘时段受非农数据影响强势拉升，黄金上涨2.02%，最高触及3363美 元/盎司，收盘也在此处。日线形成一根下影线较长的大阳线形态。 黄金日线级别：大阳构筑启明星形态，目前大周期处于5浪上行阶段；4小时级别：均线多头排列但有所 偏离，短期需回调修复后再延续上涨，下方短期关注3330-3345一线支撑。上方短期关注3388-3390一带 阻力。指标信号：MACD指标在零轴上方持续扩大，双线形成金叉状态，多头力量充足；RSI接近高位 区域，需警惕指标修复引发的短期回调。日内操作上钟亿金建议逢低做多逐步观察压力情况再寻找合适 机会做空即可！ 【钟亿金黄金白银投资理念】 1：我们有专业的团队，每一次建议都是多名分析师共同分析得出。 2： ...

【最新国际白银行情解析】 国际白银上涨接近37.5关键点，白银在36支撑做多，看涨至37.5，破位37.5后就可以是单边行情，白银需要看是震荡上 行，还是单边上行，上方站稳37.5就看38，38.5，甚至在白银的滞后性的情况下，可能会走出大涨空间。 今日周二(8月5日)亚盘时段，国际白银目前交投于37.43一线下方，今日开盘于37.39美元/盎司，截至发稿，国际白银暂 报37.42美元/盎司，上涨0.02%，最高触及37.49美元/盎司，最低下探37.35美元/盎司，目前来看，国际白银盘内短线偏 向看涨走势。 【要闻速递】 旧金山联储主席戴利表示，鉴于越来越多的证据表明就业市场正在疲软，且没有迹象显示关税通胀持续存在，降息时机 已经临近。戴利在谈到美联储上周决定时表示，"我愿意再等一个周期，但我不能永远等下去。"虽然这并不意味着9月 降息已成定局，但她说："我会倾向于认为，今后每次会议都是思考政策调整的即时会议。" 戴利称，年内进行两次25个基点的降息看起来仍然是一个适当的重新调整，重要的是是否在9月和12月都降息，而不是 降息是否会发生。戴利说，"如果通胀回升并蔓延，或者劳动力市场回暖，降息当然可以少于两次 ...

Core Viewpoint - The silver price is experiencing a moderate increase in the first half of 2025, rising from $22 per ounce at the beginning of the year to a peak of approximately $28.5 per ounce in June, but has struggled to break through the key resistance level of $30. The second half of 2025 may see renewed investor interest due to a more accommodative macro environment and signs of industrial recovery. Group 1: Macroeconomic Factors - The Federal Reserve has completed its first rate cut of the year, lowering the federal funds rate to 4.75%, with expectations for another cut later in the year as inflation approaches target levels. This easing monetary policy benefits the precious metals sector [1] - The decline in the dollar index and real interest rates reduces the opportunity cost of holding silver, leading to a shift in risk appetite towards physical assets [1] - Historically, each round of Fed rate cuts has benefited gold and silver, with silver typically lagging behind gold in price increases [1] Group 2: Industrial Demand - Approximately 60% of silver demand comes from industrial applications, particularly in the electronics and photovoltaic sectors. The Silver Institute's Q2 2025 report indicates that global photovoltaic capacity is growing faster than expected, with significant increases in silver usage in new battery technologies [2] - The semiconductor market is recovering after two years of decline, driving demand for high-precision silver contacts [2] - Industrial silver demand is projected to grow to 560 million ounces in 2025, representing a nearly 7% year-over-year increase, supporting the fundamental price outlook for silver [3] Group 3: Investment Demand - Unlike gold, silver investment demand is more speculative. Although silver ETF holdings have increased in the first half of 2025, they have not returned to the highs seen during the pandemic in 2020 [5] - Investor sentiment regarding inflation remains divided, with some capital favoring gold over silver. The volatility of silver makes it less attractive to risk-averse institutional investors [5] - The appeal of risk assets like U.S. stocks and Bitcoin has diverted some funds away from precious metals [5] Group 4: Supply Constraints - While rising silver prices may encourage some mines to increase production, actual supply is constrained by resource depletion, environmental regulations, and insufficient capital expenditure. Global silver mine output is expected to grow by only about 2% in 2025 [7] - High-grade silver resources are concentrated in politically risky regions such as Mexico and Peru, and the supply from recycling is highly dependent on metal price fluctuations [7] - The limited elasticity of supply supports the potential for a mid-term price increase for silver [8] Group 5: Technical Analysis - Technically, silver has formed a wide consolidation range on the monthly chart, with $30 per ounce being a significant resistance level since 2013. A successful breakout would require favorable fundamentals and increased trading volume [9] - If silver can stabilize above $30, the next target range would be $32.5 to $35 per ounce [9] Summary - The potential for silver price increases in the second half of 2025 is supported by three main factors: a shift towards accommodative global monetary policy, a rapid recovery in industrial demand, particularly in the photovoltaic and electronics sectors, and a tightening supply-demand structure [10] - However, for silver to effectively break through the $30 level in the short term, sustained inflows into ETFs and confirmation from technical indicators will be necessary [10]

Core Viewpoint - The recent decline in the US dollar index and the rise in silver prices are influenced by weak non-farm payroll data, which has heightened expectations for interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [1][3]. Group 1: Market Data - The US dollar index is trading around 98.91, while spot silver opened at $36.99/oz and is currently around $36.68/oz [1]. - The SLV silver ETF holdings decreased by 5.65 tons to 15,056.67 tons [2]. - The spot silver price closed at $37.02/oz, up 0.90%, while spot gold rose by 2.23% to $3,362.52/oz [1]. Group 2: Economic Indicators - The US non-farm payrolls for July showed an increase of 73,000 jobs, significantly below the expected 110,000, with prior months' data revised down by 258,000 jobs [3]. - The market is fully pricing in two interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve by the end of the year due to the disappointing employment data [3]. Group 3: Market Sentiment - The silver market experienced volatility, opening at $38.139 and reaching a high of $38.355 before dropping to a weekly low of $36.181, ultimately closing at $37.008 [4]. - The market sentiment indicates a potential target for silver prices at $37, $37.3, and $37.6, with stop-loss levels set at $36.6 and $36.3 [4].

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Ratings - Gold: Cautiously long [1] - Silver: Stabilize and test long [1] - Copper: Buy on dips [1] - Zinc: Sell on rallies [1] - Lead: Resistance on rallies [1] - Tin: Resistance on rallies [1] - Aluminum: Under pressure [1] - Nickel: Under pressure [1] - Industrial Silicon: Cautiously bearish [1] - Polysilicon: Cautiously bearish [1] - Lithium Carbonate: Cautiously long [1] 2. Core Views - The weak US data has increased the expectation of interest rate cuts and the risk of stagflation, leading to an inflow of safe - haven funds and a significant increase in gold prices. The long - bull logic of gold remains unchanged in the long term [3][4]. - For copper, short - term supply - demand contradictions are due to seasonal factors and inventory pressure, while long - term contradictions lie in demand uncertainty and potential demand growth. After the non - farm payroll data was disappointing, the dollar index weakened, and copper prices rebounded [8][9]. - Zinc supply is abundant, and demand is weak during the off - season. It is recommended to hold short positions and seize opportunities to short on rallies [10][12]. - Aluminum prices are under pressure due to downstream weakness and inventory accumulation [13][15]. - Nickel prices face pressure due to weak supply - demand and inventory accumulation, and stainless steel also faces over - supply in the off - season [17][19]. - Lithium carbonate inventory has decreased, and with potential supply risks and improved demand, it is recommended to go long on dips [21][23]. 3. Summary by Directory Gold and Silver - **Market Review**: Weak US data increased the expectation of interest rate cuts, and the risk of stagflation reappeared. Safe - haven funds flowed in, causing a significant increase in gold prices [3]. - **Basic Logic**: US data increased the expectation of interest rate cuts; "reciprocal tariffs" are about to take effect; global gold demand is growing strongly. The long - bull logic of gold remains unchanged in the long term [4]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Pay attention to the support around 770 for gold in the short term. For silver, it has fallen back to the previous range, and it is recommended to enter long positions after stabilization [5]. Copper - **Market Review**: Shanghai copper stopped falling and fluctuated narrowly [8]. - **Industry Logic**: Short - term supply - demand contradictions are related to seasonal factors and inventory pressure. Medium - term contradictions are the coexistence of tight copper concentrate supply and high electrolytic copper production. Long - term contradictions are between demand uncertainty and potential demand growth [8]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: After the non - farm payroll data was disappointing, the dollar index weakened, and copper prices rebounded. It is recommended to buy on dips in the short term and be bullish on copper in the long term. Pay attention to the price range of Shanghai copper [77500, 79500] and LME copper [9650, 9850] [9]. Zinc - **Market Review**: Shanghai zinc fluctuated weakly [11]. - **Industry Logic**: Zinc concentrate supply is abundant, processing fees are rising, and demand is weak during the off - season [11]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: It is recommended to hold previous short positions and take partial profits. Seize opportunities to short on rallies in the long term. Pay attention to the price range of Shanghai zinc [21800, 22600] and LME zinc [2650, 2850] [12]. Aluminum - **Market Review**: Aluminum prices were under pressure, and alumina also showed a downward trend [14]. - **Industry Logic**: For electrolytic aluminum, costs have decreased, inventory has increased, and downstream demand is weak. For alumina, supply is abundant, and inventory is accumulating [15]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: It is recommended to sell on rallies for Shanghai aluminum in the short term and pay attention to inventory changes. The main operating range is [20000 - 20700] [16]. Nickel - **Market Review**: Nickel prices were under pressure, and stainless steel rebounded and then fell [18]. - **Industry Logic**: Nickel supply - demand is weak, and inventory is accumulating. Stainless steel has over - supply issues in the off - season [19]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: It is recommended to sell on rallies for nickel and stainless steel and pay attention to downstream inventory changes. The main operating range for nickel is [118000 - 121000] [20]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Review**: The main contract LC2509 reduced positions for five consecutive days, with a significant decline in trading volume and a gain of over 1% [22]. - **Industry Logic**: The inventory has stopped increasing, and the supply - demand situation may improve. The compliance risk of mining licenses is a key factor [23]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: There are still expectations of supply speculation. It is recommended to go long on dips in the range of [68000 - 71500] [24].

Group 1 - The core point of the article highlights that China Silver Group's stock price dropped by 5.56% to 0.425 HKD per share, with a trading volume of 5.6342 million HKD as of 10:01 AM on July 31 [1] - China Silver Group is a comprehensive enterprise in the silver and precious metals industry, focusing on silver manufacturing, jewelry retail, and silver trading [1] - The company is recognized as a leading private silver producer in China and has been a member of the London Bullion Market Association, receiving accolades as one of the "Top 20 Most Popular Silver Brands in China" for 12 consecutive years [1] Group 2 - As of the 2024 annual report, China Silver Group reported a total operating revenue of 4.314 billion CNY and a net profit of 9.966 million CNY [2]