Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform the Market" rating for the food and beverage sector [4][5]. Core Views - The report highlights that the demand for high-end liquor continues to face pressure during the off-season, while beer and beverages are entering a demand peak [2][11]. - The liquor index has decreased by 0.9%, indicating ongoing short-term fundamental pressures [13]. - The report suggests three investment themes: 1) Leading liquor companies with proven risk resilience such as Kweichow Moutai, Shanxi Fenjiu, and Wuliangye; 2) Luzhou Laojiao, which is showing signs of digital transformation and valuation recovery; 3) Companies like Jinsiyuan and Yingjia Gongjiu that have potential for market share growth [2][13]. Summary by Sections 1. Liquor - The report notes that high-end liquor prices have slightly declined, with Kweichow Moutai's stock buyback and international product launches being significant developments [2][11]. - Luzhou Laojiao plans to focus on expanding its market presence and improving brand image [2][11]. - The report emphasizes the importance of consumer engagement and channel management for liquor companies [2][11]. 2. Consumer Goods - The beer industry is expected to enter a peak sales phase, benefiting from a low base from the previous year [14][15]. - The snack food sector is experiencing a trend of differentiation, with leading companies enhancing efficiency across the supply chain [15]. - The report recommends focusing on companies with new product launches and channel breakthroughs, such as Wei Long and Yihai International [15]. 3. Key Company Earnings Forecasts - Kweichow Moutai is projected to have an EPS of 75.28 in 2025, with a PE ratio of 20.0 [4]. - Wuliangye is expected to have an EPS of 8.44 in 2025, with a PE ratio of 14.8 [4]. - Luzhou Laojiao's EPS is forecasted at 9.64 for 2025, with a PE ratio of 12.1 [4]. 4. Market Trends - The food and beverage sector saw a decline of 0.65% this week, underperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 1.78 percentage points [20]. - The report indicates that the beverage sector is entering a peak season, with expectations for continued growth in segments like sugar-free tea and energy drinks [19].

Core Insights - The article highlights the innovative marketing strategy of Pepsi's limited edition "Music Bottle," which effectively connects with younger consumers through music culture and emotional resonance [1][3][4] Group 1: Marketing Strategy - The "Music Bottle" campaign is a natural extension of Pepsi's long-standing association with music, featuring signatures and lyrics from various artists, transforming the product into a collectible cultural item [3][4] - The scarcity created by the limited release generates urgency and exclusivity, leading to a sell-out on the launch day, demonstrating the effectiveness of scarcity in marketing [3][4] - Pepsi integrated cross-platform resources by collaborating with music platforms to create exclusive playlists, enhancing consumer engagement and extending interaction time with the brand [3][4] Group 2: Content Marketing - The success of the "Music Bottle" campaign is attributed to a well-designed 360-degree content marketing strategy that encompasses multiple channels and formats [5][7] - Emotional storytelling is central to Pepsi's content strategy, focusing on the connection between music and personal experiences rather than direct product promotion [5][6] - The campaign encourages user-generated content (UGC) by inviting influencers and everyday consumers to share their experiences, creating a positive feedback loop [6][8] Group 3: Social Media Impact - The campaign generated significant social media engagement, with related topics reaching over 50 million views, showcasing the power of social media in amplifying brand messages [8][9] - The use of open-ended hashtags like MyFirstMusicMemory encourages users to share personal stories, enhancing relatability and engagement [8][9] - The limited edition nature of the product serves as social capital, prompting consumers to showcase their ownership on social media platforms [8][9] Group 4: Long-term Brand Value - The marketing strategy not only drives short-term sales but also contributes to long-term brand equity by positioning Pepsi as a "music culture advocate" among young consumers [9][10] - The campaign aligns with Pepsi's sustainability initiatives by incorporating information about eco-friendly materials and recycling, reinforcing brand consistency [9][10] - The article concludes that effective content marketing can create lasting value, suggesting that brands should focus on meaningful engagement rather than traditional advertising [10]

Summary of Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The conference call discusses the new consumption sector, focusing on industries such as daily chemicals, personal care, and health products, which are entering a product upgrade cycle with strong sustainability [1][5]. Key Points and Arguments - **New Consumption Drivers**: The current wave of new consumption is driven by product renewal and innovation rather than relying on traffic purchases. Companies need stronger content marketing capabilities and market insight, making innovation a key competitive factor [1][3]. - **Market Characteristics**: The new consumption market is characterized by a shift from functional needs to emotional value needs, with traditional products being revamped to meet these new demands [4][5]. - **Market Volatility**: Recent fluctuations in the new consumption market are considered normal after significant growth phases. The current cycle is less elastic compared to the previous one, with a focus on replacing and upgrading existing products [3][6]. - **Valuation Metrics**: Most new consumption companies have a PEG ratio between 1 and 1.3, indicating they may be slightly overvalued. However, there is potential for valuation recovery as risk appetite increases [7]. - **Impact of Shareholder Actions**: Shareholder sell-offs do not necessarily indicate a peak in stock prices, as they can be influenced by various factors. As long as risk appetite remains stable and innovation cycles continue, the new consumption sector still has growth potential [8]. Industry Trends - **Sustained Innovation**: Industries such as beauty, snacks, gold and jewelry, trendy toys, and tea drinks are expected to maintain high-frequency innovation, while stable categories like daily chemicals and personal care are entering a more robust upgrade cycle [5][9]. - **Investment Recommendations**: Traditional growth companies in sectors like beverages and beer are recommended for investment due to their lower valuations and higher cost-effectiveness. Emerging growth companies like Ruoyuchen and Jingbo Biological are also highlighted for their innovative capabilities [2][10]. Potential Investment Opportunities - **Specific Companies**: In the cosmetics sector, companies like Juzhi Biological and Runben Co. are noted for their stability and growth potential. In the food and beverage sector, companies such as Yanjinpuzi and Weilong Food are performing well, with others like Bailong Chuangyuan and Three Squirrels also identified as promising investments [11]. Conclusion - The new consumption sector may experience a consolidation phase, but this does not imply an end to growth. Traditional growth companies may outperform during this period, suggesting a need for dynamic adjustments in investment strategies to optimize returns [12].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of Guotai Junan Securities indicates that the pattern of the "transformation bull market" in the Chinese stock market is becoming increasingly clear, with a strategic bullish outlook for 2025 [1] - After traversing shocks and adjustments, investors' understanding of the economic situation has become sufficient, reducing the marginal impact of valuation contraction [1] - The main contradiction in future expectations has shifted from economic cycle fluctuations to a decline in discount rates, particularly the systematic reduction of risk awareness and risk-free interest rates [1] Group 2 - Tianfeng Securities emphasizes a defensive strategy in June, categorizing investment themes into three directions: breakthroughs in AI technology, valuation recovery in consumer stocks, and the continued rise of undervalued dividends [2] - The progress of the AI industry trend is crucial for the height of undervalued dividends, which often retract when strong industrial trends emerge [2] Group 3 - Guotai Junan Securities reports that new consumption and value growth are progressing in parallel, with differentiation in targets and valuation increases [3] - Structural dividends in new consumption are driven by innovations in new channels and product categories, particularly in snacks, health products, and food additives [3] - Traditional food and beverage leaders are achieving stable growth through strong product innovation and channel expansion, particularly in the beer and beverage sectors [3]

图源：电商平台及山姆小程序截图 面包比面粉便宜的怪象，正在椰子水行业真实上演。 曾几何时椰子水作为高端健康饮品，以"天然电解质水"的身份横扫饮料市场，成为健康饮品市场的新宠。但从2023年开始，椰子水市场掀起一场前所未有 的降价潮，一路从"轻奢"神坛跌落凡间。 "前几年一瓶330ml进口椰水卖14元一瓶，现在1L装直接杀到9块9？"消费者王女士面对超市货架上琳琅满目的椰子水产品发出惊叹。短短几年时间，椰子 水从曾经的"饮料界爱马仕"跌至"从碳酸饮料还便宜"。 比大幅降价更魔幻的是，不远处的生鲜区，一个新鲜椰青的标价为16.9元。9.9元1L装100%椰子水和16.9元的新鲜椰青，巨大的价格差让不少消费者困惑 不已。 "跌跌不休"的椰子水到底经历了什么？"价格差"背后又折射出怎样的市场现象？ 01、从30元到9.9元，"轻奢"椰子水价格跌回地表 在盒马鲜生，自有品牌1L装100%椰子水打出9.9元的醒目价签；电商平台上，东江牧场椰子水250ml×10盒装的券后价格仅为13.48元。即便是进口品牌也 不得不低头，山姆超市小程序显示， 1Lx6盒规格的MM进口椰子水位列其"风味果汁榜TOP1"，售价仅为56.9元， ...

投资建议： 新消费与价值成长并行，大众品首选成长，重视换季消费机会，白酒绝对价值显现。 报告导读： 新消费与价值成长并行，把握换季机会，估值提升。白酒短期受政策影响，长 期绝对价值凸显。大众品啤酒饮料旺季催化，大单品新渠道成长性凸出。 新消费与价值成长并行，标的分化和估值提升。 一方面， 新渠道和新品类创新驱动新消费结构性红利， 主要体现在零食、保健品、食品添加剂赛道；另一方面，传统食品饮料龙头依赖强大的产品创新能力、渠 道拓展能力实现大单品的稳健强劲增长，主要体现在啤酒、饮料赛道。我们预计新消费与价值成长并行， 龙头间或将逐步出现分化，新消费标的估值有望创新高，传统消费估值或将提升。 白酒：短期受政策影响，长期绝对价值凸显。 近期中共中央、国务院印发修订后的《党政机关厉行节约反 对浪费条例》，其中涉及用酒部分我们认为属于纪律的再度强调，我们预计白酒行业龙头或将持续挖掘新 场景和潜在增量，加速白酒商品属性重塑和消费结构转型。对于白酒板块，我们延续前期观点，行业 2025Q2 产业景气度环比角度仍在寻底，价格端压力大于量的压力，大部分企业短期业绩表现愈发依赖于 核心市场的市占率提升，且愈发依赖于腰部及以下单品驱 ...

证券研究报告 | 行业周报 gszqdatemark 2025 06 08 年 月 日 食品饮料 周观点：啤酒饮料正当旺季，关注大众品上新催化 投资建议：1、白酒：淡季筑底、中长期价值凸显，建议关注" 优势龙头、红 利延续、强势复苏"三条主线：1）优势龙头，头部酒企份额持续提升：贵州 茅台、五粮液、山西汾酒、古井贡酒；2）红利延续，高确定性区域酒：今世 缘（江苏格局红利）、迎驾贡酒（洞藏大单品红利）等；3）受益复苏与风险偏 好提升，弹性标的：泸州老窖、水井坊、舍得酒业、老白干酒、港股珍酒李渡、 酒鬼酒等。2、大众品：燕京 U8 改革深化，农夫山泉推新" 茶 "，山姆供应 链上新加速，建议寻找高成长与强复苏两条主线：1）高景气或高成长逻辑： 盐津铺子、东鹏饮料、燕京啤酒、珠江啤酒、三只松鼠、百润股份、有友食品、 好想你等，港股农夫山泉、华润饮料、卫龙美味等。2）政策受益或复苏改善： 青岛啤酒、海天味业、新乳业、伊利股份、重庆啤酒、安琪酵母、仙乐健康、 安井食品、立高食品等，港股 H&H 国际控股等。 白酒：茅台发布 走进系列"，淡季进一步筑底。近期在时隔 6 年后，贵州茅 台上新走进系列新品，并于 6 月 5 ...

Core Viewpoint - The beverage industry is increasingly focusing on outdoor consumption scenarios, with brands like Pulse launching eco-friendly initiatives to capture this growing market [1][2][4]. Group 1: Pulse's Initiatives - Pulse has launched a "Low Carbon Hiking + Smart Recycling" initiative in Shenzhen, allowing citizens to collect plastic bottles for carbon credits [2]. - The initiative aims to create a sustainable ecosystem by recycling collected bottles into outdoor products and facilities [2][3]. - Pulse has achieved 100% recyclable bottles since 2021 and plans to establish a 30 million yuan climate action fund in 2024 to support low-carbon initiatives [3]. Group 2: Market Trends - The outdoor sports population in China has surged from 150 million in 2018 to 500 million in 2022, with participation rates increasing from 10% to 38% [4]. - The Kantar Consumer Index predicts that by 2024, outdoor sales of packaged beverages will account for 56% of total sales, marking a significant shift in consumer behavior [5]. - Beverage brands are adapting their products and marketing strategies to align with outdoor activities, including innovative packaging and flavor offerings [6].

Core Viewpoint - The CSFE 2025 China (Shandong) Food Expo and Jinan Mid-Autumn Festival Wine and Food Trade Fair aims to boost consumption and enrich market supply during the 2025 consumption promotion year, focusing on high-quality development in the food industry [1][9][14]. Group 1: Event Overview - The event will take place from September 5 to 7 at the Shungeng International Exhibition Center in Jinan [1]. - The expo covers an area of 20,000 square meters, showcasing new technologies, packaging, products, and flavors from various food and beverage companies [9]. - Over 500 enterprises from more than 10 provinces and regions, including Beijing, Shanghai, and Guangzhou, will participate, presenting nearly 10,000 premium products [9]. Group 2: Activities and Themes - The expo is themed around the Mid-Autumn Festival, aiming to create new consumption scenarios and uncover new business opportunities [9]. - Activities such as the "Jinan Mooncake Culture Festival," "Old Brand New Flavor Mooncake Tasting," and "National Brand Mooncake Group Purchase Festival" will be held to stimulate festive consumption [9]. Group 3: Exhibition Areas - Comprehensive Food Exhibition Area: Includes various food products such as mooncakes, snacks, canned foods, and gourmet gift boxes suitable for gifting and business [16]. - Comprehensive Alcohol Exhibition Area: Features traditional and international wines, spirits, and health-oriented alcoholic beverages [19]. - High-End Beverage Exhibition Area: Showcases a variety of drinks including tea, dairy, fruit and vegetable beverages, and functional drinks [18]. - Food Packaging and Industry Chain Exhibition Area: Displays packaging machinery, food processing equipment, and creative packaging designs [22].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report is that the Chinese consumer goods sector is becoming a defensive area in the market due to limited direct risks from exports and increasing expectations for the Chinese government to accelerate domestic consumption stimulus policies [1][2] - The Global X China Consumer Leaders ETF (02806) has only 4% of its revenue coming from the U.S., primarily affecting the home appliance and sportswear OEM industries [1] - Macroeconomic data supports the resilience of Chinese consumption, with Q1 GDP growing by 5.4%, surpassing the market expectation of 5.2%, and March retail sales increasing by 5.9%, higher than the expected 4.2% [1] Group 2 - Future Asset anticipates that stimulus policies will focus on several areas, including: 1) fertility support policies, which may benefit the milk powder and dairy industries; 2) consumption vouchers applicable to dining and general retail; 3) service consumption subsidies benefiting tourism, education, entertainment, and domestic services; 4) expansion of the "old-for-new" policy, which will continue to benefit home appliances, furniture, home decoration, automobiles, and consumer electronics [1] - The expectation of increased stimulus policies is likely to enhance immediate consumption growth, improve profit growth expectations, and lead to a revaluation of the sector [2] - The Global X China Consumer Leaders ETF captures recovery opportunities in the Chinese consumer sector through a balanced investment portfolio, investing in multiple policy-benefiting sub-sectors and defensive industries with low tariff risks [2]