Group 1 - Nvidia has corrected its technical paper regarding copper demand in data centers, adjusting the copper busbar usage for a traditional 1 GW data center from 500,000 tons to 200 tons, indicating a significant downward revision in copper demand expectations [1] - The previous estimate of 500,000 tons per GW was identified as a substantial error, and the current revision only accounts for busbar copper usage, excluding other components, leading to a lack of precise market estimates for copper usage per GW [1] - Recent copper price declines are attributed to liquidity and trading noise, with the actual bearish impact on market logic being limited, as the long-term narrative remains favorable for copper [1] Group 2 - The Penghua Nonferrous ETF closely tracks the National Securities Nonferrous Metals Industry Index, which includes 50 securities from the nonferrous metals sector, reflecting the overall performance of listed companies in this industry [2] - As of December 31, 2025, the top ten weighted stocks in the National Securities Nonferrous Metals Industry Index include Zijin Mining, Luoyang Molybdenum, Northern Rare Earth, and others, collectively accounting for 51.65% of the index [2]

截至2026年1月19日 11:13，中证全指自由现金流指数(932365)强势上涨1.08%，成分股新华百货上涨 9.99%，中闽能源上涨9.93%，平高电气上涨9.76%，九丰能源，常宝股份等个股跟涨。自由现金流ETF 基金(159233)上涨1.28%，最新价报1.26元。 自由现金流ETF基金（159233）跟踪中证自由现金流指数，相较于传统红利与宽基指数，该指数更聚焦 顺周期行业，在主题赛道资金轮动的市场环境下，可作为底仓配置的工具，助力投资者捕捉经济复苏背 景下的结构性机会。 今日盘面上，电力设备及新能源、石油石化及有色金属等行业为其涨幅主要贡献力量。近期消息面亦对 顺周期板块形成积极支撑： 在当前市场环境下，自由现金流ETF基金（159233）以自由现金流为核心筛选指标，兼顾盈利质量与行 业景气，为投资者提供了一键布局顺周期优质资产的便利工具，备受市场关注。 | 股票代码 | 股票简称 | 涨跌幅 | 权重 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 600938 | 中国海油 | 0.38% | 10.16% | | 000333 | 美的集团 | 0.19% | 7.88% ...

Market Overview - The Hong Kong stock market opened lower on January 19, with the Hang Seng Index at 26,641.60 points, down 203.36 points, a decline of 0.76% [1] - The Hang Seng Tech Index opened at 5,777.07 points, down 45.11 points, a decrease of 0.77% [4] Airline Sector Performance - Airline stocks showed resilience, with China Eastern Airlines (HK00670) rising over 6%, and both China Southern Airlines (HK01055) and Air China (HK00753) increasing by more than 2% [3] - China Eastern Airlines reported a 4.93% year-on-year increase in passenger capacity for December 2025, with passenger turnover up 7.61% and a seat load factor of 85.65%, up 2.14 percentage points [6] - China Southern Airlines announced an 11.89% year-on-year increase in passenger capacity for December 2025, with passenger turnover up 11.20% and a seat load factor of 84.05%, down 0.53 percentage points [7] - Air China reported a 4.0% year-on-year increase in passenger capacity for December 2025, with passenger turnover up 10.0% and a seat load factor of 82.2%, up 4.5 percentage points [7] Other Sector Movements - The technology sector saw widespread declines, with Bilibili dropping over 4%, Alibaba and Kuaishou down over 2%, and Xiaomi and Meituan down over 1% [7] - The metals sector was active, with Zijin Mining opening over 1% higher [7] - The lithium battery sector experienced mostly gains, with BYD rising over 1% [7] - The domestic real estate sector faced declines, with Country Garden falling over 10% [7] - The biopharmaceutical sector opened lower, with Tigermed down over 2% [7] Economic Outlook - According to Galaxy Securities, the U.S. CPI for December 2025 rose 2.7% year-on-year, with core CPI up 2.6%, both in line with previous values [8] - The U.S. PPI for November increased by 3%, exceeding the forecast of 2.7% [8] - Initial jobless claims in the U.S. decreased by 9,000 to 198,000, significantly below the market expectation of 215,000, marking the lowest level since November of the previous year [8] - China's foreign trade in 2025 reached 45.47 trillion yuan, a year-on-year growth of 3.8%, marking nine consecutive years of growth [8] - The M2-M1 spread at the end of December 2025 was 4.7 percentage points, widening from the previous month's 3.1 percentage points [8] Investment Recommendations - The technology sector remains a long-term investment focus, benefiting from price increases in the supply chain, domestic substitution, and accelerated AI applications [8] - The consumer sector is expected to continue benefiting from policy support, with attention needed on policy implementation and improvements in consumption data [8] - Given the escalating geopolitical tensions, precious metals and other safe-haven assets are likely to benefit [8]

gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn 综合晨报 2026年01月19日 铸造铝合金跟随沪铝波动，市场活跃度不高。废铝依然偏紧，税务调整令部分地区成本面临上调。 宏观驱动下铸造铝合金与沪铝价差季节性表现将持续弱于往年。 (原油) 伊朗局势紧张但目前仍在可控范围，地缘政治风险溢价相应回落。从油价波动显著加剧的表现来 看，她犹动消息反复下市场对此逐渐脱敏,除非冲突实际发生,否则地缘溢价空间有限。此外, 2026年第一季度的全球原油供需结构显示库存压力显著，供应过剩仍是压制油价的主要因素。 【贵金属】 上周美国公布部分经济数据体现韧性，美联储多位官员讲话对短期内降息持否定态度，一月维持利 率不变基本成为共识。伊朗局势处于紧张状态,美方针对格陵兰岛施压并对欧洲多国加征关税,特 朗普对于全球秩序的挑战令贵金属趋势难改，维持多头思路。 【铜】 上周五沪铜城仓阴线震荡在10万附近，市场关注伊朗、格陵兰岛地缘局势，LME现货升水扩至61美 元，美伦价差收敛。国内铜社库32万吨，同时关注精废价差变动。高硫酸价格下,产出稳定性更 强，消费一般。国网"十五五"投资年均复合增速7%，过去五年为8%。延续前期高位卖看 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight (Maintain)" for non-ferrous metals and basic metals and processing [7] Core Insights - The non-ferrous metal industry is expected to maintain high prosperity in 2026-2027 due to the resonance of recovery cycles and supply constraints, with copper and aluminum prices influenced by supply hard constraints and demand recovery [1] - The global electrolytic aluminum supply growth is projected to be only 1.7% in 2026, leading to a supply gap of over 800,000 tons despite some demand drag from construction and photovoltaics [2] - The electrolytic copper supply is expected to remain limited with a year-on-year increase of 66,000 tons (2.4%), while demand is driven by U.S. stockpiling and grid construction, resulting in a shift from surplus to shortage [3] - Energy metals such as cobalt and lithium have confirmed price bottoms in 2025, with expectations for improved supply-demand dynamics in 2026-2027 [4] - Strategic metals like tungsten are anticipated to continue facing shortages due to strict mining controls in China, while the magnesium industry is expected to improve as it increasingly substitutes aluminum in lightweight applications [5] Summary by Sections Non-Ferrous Metals - The non-ferrous metal industry is projected to experience sustained high prosperity in 2026-2027, driven by a combination of supply constraints and demand recovery [1] Aluminum - The global electrolytic aluminum supply is expected to grow at a slow rate of 1.7% in 2026, leading to a supply gap of over 800,000 tons, which supports a bullish outlook for aluminum prices [2] Copper - The electrolytic copper supply is limited with a projected year-on-year increase of 66,000 tons (2.4%), while demand is expected to grow by 93,000 tons (3.3%), resulting in a shift to a supply shortage [3] Energy Metals - Cobalt and lithium prices are expected to rise as supply-demand dynamics improve, with lithium benefiting from increased battery storage demand and cobalt facing supply constraints from Congo [4] Strategic Metals - Tungsten is expected to remain in short supply due to strict mining regulations in China, while magnesium is anticipated to gain market share in lightweight applications, improving its industry outlook [5]

Core Viewpoint - The LME aluminum futures prices are experiencing fluctuations, with a recent increase noted in the trading session. Group 1: LME Aluminum Futures Prices - On January 19, the LME aluminum futures opened at $3142.5 per ton and are currently at $3152.5 per ton, reflecting a rise of 0.77%. The intraday high reached $3163.5 per ton, while the low was $3138.5 per ton [1] - On January 16, the LME aluminum futures had an opening price of $3166.5, a high of $3174.0, a low of $3113.0, and a closing price of $3128.5, marking a decrease of 1.36% [2] Group 2: Market Data and Inventory - As of January 16, the Shanghai Futures Exchange reported aluminum warehouse receipts of 140,750 tons, an increase of 2,667 tons compared to the previous trading day [2] - The electrolytic aluminum spot price ratio between Shanghai and London was 7.57, with an import loss of ¥-2,416.75 per ton, improving from the previous day's loss of ¥-2,563.98 per ton [2] - The LME reported registered aluminum warehouse receipts of 446,575 tons, with canceled receipts decreasing by 2,000 tons to a total of 41,425 tons. The total aluminum inventory stands at 488,000 tons, also down by 2,000 tons [2]

记者从宜安科技、旭升集团等多家镁产业链企业获悉，镁合金已开始在人形机器人关节结构件、航空航 天设备零部件等高端领域应用，并小批量生产，多家上市公司将相关项目列为未来重点发展方向。同 时，宝武镁业、宜安科技、星源卓镁等多家上市公司开始批量承接镁合金新能源汽车轻量化零部件订 单。万丰奥威人士向以投资者身份致电的记者表示，由于镁合金在航空航天与人形机器人等新兴领域的 应用基数较低，未来即使实现小比例替代，也将带来显著的需求增量。在供给收缩、需求及政策预期驱 动下，本月镁锭及镁合金价格涨幅明显，上海钢联数据显示，国内镁合金价格从本月初的18300元/吨攀 升至19200元/吨，镁锭价格也一度达到17000元/吨的价格，本月内最高涨幅超千元。（智通财经） ...

Core Viewpoint - The joint guidance issued by multiple Chinese government agencies aims to promote the construction of zero-carbon factories, emphasizing a phased and systematic approach to decarbonization across various industries [1] Group 1: Principles of Zero-Carbon Factory Construction - The construction of zero-carbon factories will follow four main principles: tailored strategies based on industry needs, systematic advancement, innovation-driven and technology-enabled approaches, and a commitment to transparency and standardization [1] Group 2: Implementation Phases - The initiative will implement a phased approach, prioritizing industries with urgent decarbonization needs, primarily those relying on electricity, and where decarbonization is relatively easier [1] - Starting in 2026, a selection of zero-carbon factories will be identified to serve as benchmarks [1] Group 3: Target Industries and Timeline - By 2027, the focus will be on cultivating zero-carbon factories in sectors such as automotive, lithium batteries, photovoltaics, electronics, light industry, machinery, and computing facilities [1] - By 2030, the initiative aims to expand to traditional high-energy-consuming industries like steel, non-ferrous metals, petrochemicals, building materials, and textiles, exploring new pathways for decarbonization [1]

北京时间1月19日，伦敦金属交易所(LME)铜期货价格偏强震荡，开盘报12920美元/吨，现报12921.5美 元/吨，涨幅0.88%，盘中最高触及12985.5美元/吨，最低下探12850美元/吨。 品种 开盘价 最高价 最低价 收盘价 LME铜 13096.5 13183.0 12696.0 12808.5 -2.59% 【铜市场消息速递】 1月16日，伦敦金属交易所（LME）：铜注册仓单94000吨。注销仓单49575吨，减少525吨。铜库存 143575吨，增加2450吨。 1月16日，电解铜现货沪伦比值为7.82，进口盈亏：-1218.18元/吨，上一交易日进口盈亏：-1465.85元/ 吨。 更新时间： LME铜期货行情回顾： 1月16日伦敦金属交易所(LME)铜期货行情 1月16日，上期所铜期货仓单160417吨，环比上个交易日减少2300吨。 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained at "Outperform the Market" [1] Core Views - The report emphasizes that the demand for non-ferrous metals is under short-term pressure, recommending to buy copper, aluminum, and tin on dips [3][4][5] - Precious metals are viewed positively, with silver prices rising and expectations of continued inflows into ETFs due to macroeconomic conditions [3] - The report highlights the potential for supply-demand tightness in copper due to production adjustments and government spending expectations [4] Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The closing index for the non-ferrous metals sector is at 9404.84, with a weekly high of 9504.06 and a low of 4295.55 [1] Price Movements - LME copper decreased by 2.76%, aluminum by 1.96%, zinc by 0.19%, lead by 0.75%, and tin by 1.02% during the week [20] - COMEX gold fell by 0.17%, while silver increased by 5.63% [20] Inventory Levels - Global visible inventories saw an increase of 72,618 tons for copper and 35,512 tons for aluminum, while tin inventories rose by 3,159 tons [30][31]