Core Viewpoint - The non-ferrous metal industry is expected to experience a revaluation opportunity in 2026, driven by the resonance of financial attributes and industrial trends [1][2][3] Group 1: Industry Overview - The non-ferrous metal sector is anticipated to show structural upward trends in 2025, characterized by supply-demand mismatches and macroeconomic easing, leading to significant excess returns [2] - The rotation within the sector is expected to follow a pattern where precious metals lead, followed by small metals, and then industrial metals [2] - The upcoming bull market phase in 2026 is projected to be driven by profit-driven increases, supported by domestic demand stabilization and a narrative of re-inflation [2] Group 2: Segment Analysis - Small metals are identified as having the highest growth elasticity and the largest potential space, with a solid long-term logic [1][3] - The precious metals sector is currently in a performance realization phase, with a more stable investment attribute [1][3] - Industrial metals are characterized by balanced risk-reward features, making them a foundational choice for portfolio construction [1][3] Group 3: Specific Insights - For industrial metals, the supply side is constrained by mining investment cycles and geopolitical factors, while demand is expected to show steady growth amid structural optimization [3] - The small metals segment is shifting from event-driven speculation to systematic revaluation based on long-term strategic value, particularly in rare earths, which are supported by domestic supply dominance and international pricing power [4] - Precious metals are expected to maintain a strong long-term logic, with significant performance releases anticipated to aid in valuation recovery [4]

有色金属行业 标配（维持） 有色金属行业双周报（2026/01/30-2026/02/12） 行 业 市场博弈加剧，金属价格涨跌互现 2026 年 2 月 13 日 S0340523120001 电话：0769-23320072 邮箱： xuzhengkun@dgzq.com.cn 有色金属行业重要新闻及观点 本报告的风险等级为中风险。 本报告的信息均来自已公开信息，关于信息的准确性与完整性，建议投资者谨慎判断，据此入市，风险自担。 请务必阅读末页声明。 资料来源：东莞证券研究所，iFind 投资要点： 分析师：许正堃 SAC 执业证书编号： 行情回顾。截至2026年2月12日，申万有色金属行业近两周下跌11.23%，跑输 沪深300指数10.51个百分点，在申万31个行业中排名第31名。截至2026年2 月12日，近两周有色金属行业子板块中，小金属板块上涨0.19%，金属新材料 板块下跌2.30%，能源金属板块下跌6.11%，工业金属板块下跌13.51%，贵金 属板块下跌23.49%。 周 报 申万有色金属行业指数走势 小金属。稀土方面，随着供需格局逐步优化，且人形机器人有望在今年打开 稀土需求第二增长极， ...

Market Performance - On the last trading day of the Year of the Snake, the three major indices opened lower and subsequently declined, each falling over 1%. The Shanghai Composite Index dropped by 1.26%, closing below 4100 points, while the Shenzhen Component Index fell by 1.28% and the ChiNext Index decreased by 1.57% [1][2]. Yearly Overview - Throughout the Year of the Snake (from February 5, 2025, to February 13, 2026), all three major indices recorded gains. The Shanghai Composite Index increased by over 25%, the Shenzhen Component Index rose by nearly 39%, and the ChiNext Index surged by over 58% [4]. - The total trading volume for the year reached 20 trillion, with over 3800 stocks experiencing declines [4]. Sector Performance - In terms of sector performance, the non-ferrous metals and oil & gas sectors saw the largest declines, while shipping, steel, and building materials also faced downturns. Conversely, sectors such as commercial aerospace, robotics, and memory storage showed resilience and performed well [4].

Market Overview - The Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets opened lower on February 13, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 1.26% to 4082.07 points and a trading volume of approximately 846.8 billion yuan [1] - The Shenzhen Component Index fell 1.28% to 14100.19 points, with a trading volume of about 1135.9 billion yuan [1] - The ChiNext Index decreased by 1.57% to 3275.96 points, with a trading volume of around 546.1 billion yuan [1] - The STAR Market Index dropped 0.38% to 1809.18 points, with a trading volume of approximately 213 billion yuan [1] - The North Star 50 Index fell 0.22% to 1529.77 points, with a trading volume of about 16.44 billion yuan [1] Sector Performance - The aviation and shipbuilding sectors showed notable gains, while sectors such as military trade, media and entertainment, semiconductor, and information security experienced declines after initial gains [1] - The oil, non-ferrous metals, building materials, and coal sectors were among the worst performers [1] Institutional Insights - According to Jifeng Investment Advisors, the overall market trend remains upward, with sectors like AI applications, military, and semiconductors showing potential for growth [2] - Huatai Securities highlighted the increasing demand for phosphoric acid iron due to rapid growth in energy storage and downstream production, predicting improved profitability for domestic phosphoric acid iron companies [2] Regulatory Developments - The National Tobacco Monopoly Administration issued a notice on February 13 to enforce electronic cigarette industry policies, aiming to balance market supply and demand and regulate production scale [3] Technological Advancements - The "Three-Body Computing Constellation" achieved a breakthrough in inter-satellite networking, deploying and validating 10 AI models for applications in deep space exploration and smart city construction [4] Lithium Market Update - The Lithium Industry Association reported a significant increase in lithium carbonate prices in January 2026, with battery-grade lithium carbonate rising by 28.15% to 152,500 yuan per ton [6] - Industrial-grade lithium carbonate prices increased by 26.69% to 149,500 yuan per ton, driven by stable production and rising demand in the new energy vehicle market [6]

Core Viewpoint - The A-share and Hong Kong stock markets experienced significant declines ahead of the Chinese New Year, with a prevailing risk-averse sentiment overshadowing expectations for a "red envelope market" [1]. Market Performance - A-shares saw all three major indices drop, with declines exceeding 1.2%, while the STAR 50 Index showed resilience with a smaller drop of 0.72, indicating underlying support in the tech growth sector [2]. - The total trading volume in both markets was 19,827 billion yuan, reflecting a decrease of 1,591 billion yuan, driven by a cautious "holding cash for the New Year" mentality [3]. - The Hong Kong market faced more severe adjustments, with the Hang Seng Index closing at 26,535.93 points, down 1.84%, influenced by a significant drop in U.S. stocks, particularly the Nasdaq [4]. Sector Performance - The market exhibited a stark divide, with the defense and military sector rising while cyclical and new energy sectors faced heavy losses [5]. - In A-shares, the comprehensive sector rose by 2.06%, and the defense and military sector increased by 0.65%, making it one of the few sectors in the green. Conversely, cyclical and new energy sectors saw significant declines, with non-ferrous metals down 3.36%, construction materials down 3.10%, and oil and petrochemicals down 3.09% [6]. Drivers of Sector Movements - The military sector's rise was supported by two main factors: improved U.S.-China relations and ongoing domestic policy support for low-altitude economy and aerospace, which bolstered investor sentiment [7]. - The downturn in cyclical and new energy sectors was attributed to a sharp decline in international commodity prices, with silver dropping over 11% and gold also experiencing significant losses, leading to a sell-off in risk assets [8]. Market Outlook - The market is expected to continue a pattern of consolidation, with A-shares showing resilience due to policy support and liquidity. Key opportunities remain in the tech sector, particularly in AI computing, semiconductors, and robotics, as well as in military and low-altitude economy sectors driven by clear policy direction [11]. - However, cyclical sectors are likely to remain under pressure until there are signs of improvement in PPI and real estate policies, while the performance of Hong Kong tech stocks will depend on the stabilization of U.S. tech stocks [12][13].

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an overall investment rating for the industry but provides insights into sector allocations and performance metrics. Core Insights - The current allocation in the multi-strategy industry configuration system includes: Basic Chemicals (22.4%), Home Appliances (10.1%), Telecommunications (10.0%), Pharmaceuticals (7.7%), and others [1]. - The best-performing sectors this week were Non-ferrous Metals (6.2%), Oil & Petrochemicals (5.1%), and Basic Chemicals (4.7%), while the worst were Food & Beverage (-4.1%), Retail (-3.1%), and Agriculture (-1.9%) [3][10]. - The composite strategy achieved a cumulative return of 2.6% this week, outperforming the benchmark by 1.3% [3]. Summary by Sections Recent Industry Performance Review - The average weekly return for the 30 sectors was 1.3%, with a monthly average return of 1.2% [10]. - The top three sectors for the week were Non-ferrous Metals (6.2%), Oil & Petrochemicals (5.1%), and Basic Chemicals (4.7%) [11]. Industry Valuation Risk Warning - Current valuation alerts indicate that sectors such as Retail, Computers, Non-ferrous Metals, Defense, Oil & Petrochemicals, Electronics, Media, Machinery, Coal, and Textiles have PB ratios above the 95th percentile of their historical range, signaling potential overvaluation [13][14]. Top Performing Strategies and Recent Performance - The S1 strategy focusing on industry profitability tracking has the highest weight at 21.4%, while the S3 macro style rotation strategy has the lowest at 18.0% [3]. - The top three sectors based on the S1 strategy are Telecommunications, Basic Chemicals, and Home Appliances [16]. Composite Strategy and Performance Review - The composite strategy has significantly increased its positions in consumer and mid-cycle sectors while reducing exposure to TMT and upstream cyclical sectors [3]. Macro Style Rotation Strategy - The top six sectors favored by current macro indicators are Banking, Telecommunications, Oil & Petrochemicals, Construction, Home Appliances, and Coal [24]. Long-term Reversal Strategy - The recommended sectors for the long-term reversal strategy include Comprehensive, Pharmaceuticals, Basic Chemicals, Electric Equipment & New Energy, and Consumer Services [28].

Economic Performance - In 2025, China's GDP reached 1401879 billion CNY, growing by 5.0% year-on-year, meeting the growth target[11] - Henan Province's GDP was 66632.79 billion CNY, with a year-on-year growth of 5.6%, exceeding the initial target of 5.5%[19] - The industrial added value in Henan grew by 8.4%, outperforming the national average by 2.5 percentage points[20] Consumption and Investment - Henan's total retail sales of consumer goods reached 29090.50 billion CNY, increasing by 5.6%, which is 1.9 percentage points higher than the national average[21] - Fixed asset investment in Henan grew by 4.0%, leading among the six central provinces, with industrial investment showing a robust increase of 13.3%[22] Trade and Exports - Henan's total foreign trade value reached 9356.7 billion CNY, a 14.1% increase, significantly higher than the national average of 3.8%[23] - High-tech product exports from Henan surged by 27.5 percentage points to 18.7%, with electric vehicles, lithium batteries, and photovoltaic products showing substantial growth[24] Market Trends - In January 2026, the Henan Index rose by 7.52%, outperforming major indices like the Shanghai Composite and CSI 300[6] - The top three A-shares in Henan for January 2026 were Yuguang Gold Lead (89.87%), Zhongcheng Technology (37.72%), and Guangli Technology (35.67%)[6] Policy and Regulatory Environment - In January 2026, financial regulatory bodies introduced policies to support the real economy and expand domestic demand, focusing on fostering new productive forces[33] - The Henan provincial government implemented several policies aimed at improving economic performance and enhancing living standards in early 2026[37]

Market Overview - The A-share market experienced a collective decline on February 13, with the Shanghai Composite Index falling by 1.26% to 4082.07 points, the ChiNext Index down by 1.57% to 3275.96 points, and the Shenzhen Component Index decreasing by 1.28% to 14100.19 points [2] - The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets was 198.27 billion yuan, a decrease of 15.91 billion yuan from the previous trading day [2] Sector Performance - The defense and military sector led the market gains, with stocks like Andavere and Yaxing Anchor Chain hitting the daily limit or rising over 10% [3] - Semiconductor stocks initially surged, with companies such as Micro导纳米 and Shengke Communication seeing increases of over 10% [3] - Conversely, the oil and gas sector faced significant declines, with major companies like China Petroleum and Sinopec dropping over 3% [3] - The materials sector, particularly non-ferrous metals, was the worst performer, with stocks like Hesheng and Xianglu Tungsten falling over 9% [3] Investor Sentiment - As the Spring Festival holiday approaches, investor sentiment is shifting towards either "holding stocks over the holiday" or "holding cash and waiting," with many brokerages suggesting a strategy of holding stocks [4] - Financial analysts noted that trading activity has decreased as the holiday nears, indicating a potential phase of consolidation in the market [5] - There is a consensus among brokerages that the market is experiencing structural differentiation, with some sectors showing strength while others lag behind [5]

联系人：李智 河南资本市场月报 分析师：李济生 登记编码：S0730522100002 lijs@ccnew.com 分析师：郑婷 登记编码：S0730524110001 zhengting@ccnew.com 相关报告 《河南资本市场月报（2026 年第 1 期）》 2026-1-15 《河南资本市场月报（2025 年第 11 期）》 2025-12-9 （2026 年第 2 期） 证券研究报告 发布日期：2026 年 2 月 13 日 投资要点： 风险提示：全球贸易和产业管制政策带来的不确定性风险；经济增长和 业绩不及预期；市场流动性风险。 本报告版权属于中原证券研究所股份有限公司 www.ccnew.com 请阅读最后一页各项声明 第 1页/共 20页 电话： 0371-65585629 地址： 郑州郑东新区商务外环路10号18楼 地址： 上海浦东新区世纪大道 1788 号 T1 座 22 楼 经济运行情况：2025 年，我国国内生产总值达到 1401879 亿元，比 上年增长 5.0%，经济增速目标圆满完成；2025 年河南省 GDP 达到 66632.79亿元，总规模位居全国第六、中部第一，GDP同 ...

- The "Hong Kong CCASS Preferred 20 Portfolio" was constructed using a two-step screening method: "select brokers first, then select stocks"[3][4] - The first step involves selecting top-performing brokers by standardizing and equally weighting their excess Sharpe ratio and monthly win rate, then selecting the top 10 brokers[4][16] - The second step involves equally distributing funds to the 10 selected brokers, aggregating their latest holdings, and retaining the top 20 stocks by weight for equal allocation[5][17] - The portfolio has shown significant outperformance over the Hang Seng Index, with an annualized excess return rate of 19.3% and an excess Sharpe ratio of 2.45 over the period from 2020 to 2025[3][12][15] - The portfolio demonstrated defensive characteristics during market adjustments, achieving a positive return of 2.05% from October 8, 2025, to December 31, 2025, while the Hang Seng Index fell by 4.47% and the Hang Seng Technology Index dropped by 15.32%[3][12] - The latest holdings of the portfolio as of February 2026 include a low valuation and high dividend yield configuration, with the banking and non-bank financial sectors accounting for about 45%, the energy sector about 10%, and the technology and internet sectors about 20%[6][19][22] Portfolio Performance Metrics - Annualized return: 19.3%[15] - Annualized volatility: 7.9%[15] - Sharpe ratio: 2.45[15] - Maximum drawdown: -7.6%[15] - Monthly win rate: 75.3%[15]