1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - For Treasury bonds, it is expected that there will be no trending market, and caution should be maintained [6][7]. - For stock index futures, the risk of a significant decline is low, and one can choose an opportunity to go long [9][10]. - For precious metals, the short - term pricing is relatively full. After taking profits on previous long positions, one can wait and observe [11][12]. - For rebar and hot - rolled coils, the medium - term weakness of rebar prices may be difficult to change. One can focus on shorting opportunities at high levels during rebounds [14]. - For iron ore, the market supply - demand pattern has weakened. One can focus on shorting opportunities at high levels [16]. - For coking coal and coke, they may continue to be strong in the short term. One can focus on buying opportunities during pullbacks [19]. - For ferroalloys, the short - term supply may remain in excess. After a decline, one can consider low - level long positions when the spot falls into the loss range again [22]. - For crude oil, the main contract should be temporarily observed [25]. - For fuel oil, one can focus on shorting opportunities for the main contract [28]. - For polyolefins, one can focus on shorting opportunities [30]. - For synthetic rubber, it is expected to oscillate [33]. - For natural rubber, one can focus on going long opportunities [35]. - For PVC, one should focus on changes in the supply side [37]. - For urea, the downward space is limited [38]. - For p - xylene (PX), it may oscillate and adjust in the short term. One should participate within a range and pay attention to controlling positions [42]. - For PTA, it may oscillate in the short term. One should be cautious, control risks, and pay attention to oil price changes [43]. - For ethylene glycol, it may oscillate weakly in the short term. One should pay attention to port inventory and supply changes [46]. - For staple fiber, it may oscillate following the cost. One should control risks and pay attention to cost changes and macro - policy adjustments [47]. - For bottle chips, it is expected to oscillate following the cost side. One should control risks [48]. - For lithium carbonate, pay attention to the sustainability of consumption [50]. - For copper, it is in a phase of adjustment [52]. - For aluminum, it will run at a high level [55]. - For zinc, it is expected to continue to oscillate within a range [57]. - For lead, one should be cautious about chasing long positions [59]. - For tin, it may oscillate strongly [60]. - For nickel, it may oscillate [61]. - For soybean oil and soybean meal, one can consider taking profits on long positions in soybean meal when it continues to rise. One can temporarily observe soybean oil [63]. - For palm oil, one can consider going long during pullbacks [66]. - For rapeseed meal and rapeseed oil, one can consider buying near - term contracts and selling far - term contracts for rapeseed meal [68]. - For cotton, the upside space is expected to be limited. The price is under pressure [72]. - For sugar, there is certain support at the bottom [75]. - For apples, one should wait and observe [78]. - For live pigs, one can consider shorting opportunities during rebounds [79]. - For eggs, one can continue to hold short positions and pay attention to adding short positions during subsequent rebounds [83]. - For corn and starch, it is advisable to wait and observe for corn. Corn starch may follow the corn market [86]. 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Treasury Bonds - On the previous trading day, most treasury bond futures closed down. The 30 - year, 10 - year, and 2 - year main contracts declined, while the 5 - year main contract remained flat. The central bank conducted 655 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net withdrawal of 492.2 billion yuan on the day. The US ADP employment data in October was better than expected [5]. - The macro - economic recovery momentum needs to be strengthened. It is expected that the monetary policy will remain loose. The treasury bond yield is at a relatively low level. The Chinese economy shows a steady recovery trend, and there is room for domestic demand policies to exert force. The market risk preference has significantly increased. Therefore, it is expected that there will be no trending market for treasury bond futures [6]. Stock Index Futures - On the previous trading day, stock index futures showed mixed performance. The main contracts of CSI 300, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 stock index futures rose, while the main contract of SSE 50 stock index futures declined slightly [8][9]. - The domestic economy remains stable, but the macro - economic recovery momentum is not strong, and the corporate profit growth rate is at a low level. However, the domestic asset valuation is at a low level, and there is room for valuation repair. The Chinese economy has sufficient resilience. Recently, market sentiment has significantly warmed up, and incremental funds have continued to enter the market. The uncertainty in Sino - US economic and trade relations has eased. It is expected that the risk of a significant decline is low [9]. Precious Metals - On the previous trading day, the gold main contract closed down, and the silver main contract closed up. The global trade and financial environment is complex. The trends of "anti - globalization" and "de - dollarization" are beneficial to the allocation and hedging value of gold. Central bank gold - buying behavior also supports the gold price. The U.S. labor market has further slowed down, and the Federal Reserve is expected to continue to cut interest rates, which is also beneficial to precious metals. However, the recent increase in precious metals has been large, the pricing is relatively full, the heat is too high, and the volatility has increased [11]. Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coils - On the previous trading day, rebar and hot - rolled coil futures continued to correct. In the medium term, the price of finished products is dominated by the industrial supply - demand logic. On the demand side, the long - term downward trend of the real estate industry has not reversed, and the demand for rebar is still declining year - on - year. In the medium term, it is the traditional peak demand season, and downstream demand has slightly improved. On the supply side, the over - capacity situation remains unchanged, but due to the deterioration of steel mill profitability, the weekly output of rebar has declined month - on - month. Currently, the rebar inventory is significantly higher than that of the same period last year, and the inventory pressure is obvious. The basic logic of hot - rolled coils is similar to that of rebar [13][14]. Iron Ore - On the previous trading day, iron ore futures continued to correct. The national daily pig iron output has dropped below 2.4 million tons, which is negative for the iron ore price. On the supply side, the import volume of iron ore and the output of domestic mines have continued to increase month - on - month after the second quarter. It is expected that the iron ore supply will turn to a year - on - year growth trend in the fourth quarter. Since October, the iron ore port inventory has continued to rise, and the current inventory is close to that of the same period last year [16]. Coking Coal and Coke - On the previous trading day, coking coal and coke futures opened low and closed high. For coking coal, production in major producing areas is restricted due to underground and environmental inspections, and the supply is slightly tight. On the demand side, some downstream coking enterprises and intermediate links have appropriately replenished their inventories, and market transactions are performing well. For coke, the third - round increase in the spot purchase price has been initiated but has not been fully implemented. Coking enterprise production is also affected by environmental factors. Due to the significant increase in coking coal prices recently, some coking enterprises have incurred losses and carried out centralized maintenance, resulting in a month - on - month decline in coke supply. Whether downstream steel mills will accept a new round of coke price increases remains to be observed after the compression of blast furnace profits [18][19]. Ferroalloys - On the previous trading day, the main contracts of manganese - silicon and silicon - iron rose. The shipping volume of manganese ore from Gabon has rebounded, and the supply of Australian ore has increased since June. The port manganese ore inventory has slightly rebounded, and the port manganese ore quotation has stabilized at a low level. The main - producing area electricity price has stabilized, and the prices of coke and semi - coke have recovered from a low level. The cost of ferroalloys has increased from a low level. The output of rebar by sample building material steel mills last week was lower than that of the same period in 2024. The long - process gross profit of rebar in September declined. The production of manganese - silicon and silicon - iron has remained at a high level, and the demand for ferroalloys is weak. The short - term supply is still in excess. The exchange warehouse receipts have started to be registered rapidly, and the supply surplus has continued to drive inventory accumulation [21]. Crude Oil - On the previous trading day, INE crude oil opened low and closed high, closing above the 5 - day moving average. The U.S. government shutdown has suspended the release of the CFTC position report. The number of U.S. oil and gas rigs has increased for the second consecutive week, reaching the highest level since June. India's largest Russian oil buyer will comply with Western sanctions on Moscow while maintaining relationships with existing oil suppliers [23]. - Although the number of Baker Hughes rigs has increased again, it is still a long way to go for the U.S. to increase crude oil production. U.S. sanctions on Russian oil companies are positive for crude oil prices. OPEC will suspend production increases next year, which gives confidence to the crude oil market and supports the oil price increase [24]. Fuel Oil - On the previous trading day, fuel oil oscillated downward and broke below the moving average group. The delay in the resumption of the crude oil unit of Kuwait's al - Zour refinery has boosted the fuel oil market. The crack spread of Asian ultra - low - sulfur fuel oil has reached the highest level in more than three weeks. It is expected that the supply of the Asian fuel oil market will be abundant in November, but the fundamentals may potentially support a moderate price increase. The east - west arbitrage spread has narrowed, and the amount of fuel oil arbitrage from Europe in December will decrease, reducing the Asian fuel oil supply. The Asian high - sulfur fuel oil market is supported by the robust downstream marine fuel oil demand, but the increase in the sales of marine fuel oil loaded in the second half of November may drag down the spot spread [26][27]. - The market expects sufficient fuel oil supply, which is negative for the fuel oil price. Sanctions on Russia and the reduction of Sino - US trade frictions are positive for the fuel oil price [27]. Polyolefins - On the previous trading day, the offer in the Hangzhou PP market declined. The global economic environment is weak, and merchants are cautious about the future market and offer discounts to promote transactions. In the Yuyao market, the price of LLDPE partially decreased. Merchants are actively selling goods to maintain the de - stocking rhythm, and the transaction center of gravity has continued to move down [29]. - On the supply side, the impact of maintenance in November is expected to be 416,000 tons, still at a high level of maintenance within the year. On the inventory side, the social inventory and downstream factory inventory are lower than the same period last year. Currently, the market sentiment is cautious, but there may be a collective replenishment in the future. On the demand side, the peak season for the start - up of agricultural films and packaging films in November is not prosperous, which exerts pressure on prices [29]. Synthetic Rubber - On the previous trading day, the main contract of synthetic rubber declined. The cost side is weak, which has continuously pressured the negotiation center of gravity on the spot side. The price on the futures market has oscillated downward, and the price difference with natural rubber has widened to 4,000 yuan. It is expected that the downward space is limited. One should pay attention to the raw material market and supply - side changes in the future [31]. - The domestic butadiene market has accelerated its decline, reaching a new low for the year. The impact of the maintenance of the cis - butadiene units of Qilu Petrochemical and Yangzi Petrochemical has emerged, and the weekly production and capacity utilization rate have decreased slightly. The start - up rate of tire sample enterprises has declined this cycle, and the end - of - month shipments are relatively concentrated, which is conducive to inventory digestion. It is expected that the inventory of sample production enterprises and sample trading enterprises will slightly decrease next week [31][32]. Natural Rubber - On the previous trading day, the main contracts of natural rubber and 20 - standard rubber declined. The spot price in Shanghai has been adjusted downward, and the basis has remained stable. Last week, the price on the futures market oscillated, and there was a correction at the end of the week. In the future, one should focus on the phenological conditions in the producing areas and demand expectations [34]. - Overseas producing areas such as southern Thailand and Vietnam, as well as Hainan in China, have been affected by typhoons and heavy rainfall, resulting in不畅 raw material release and high raw material procurement prices. The start - up rate of tire sample enterprises has declined this cycle, and the end - of - month shipments are relatively concentrated, which is conducive to inventory digestion. The natural rubber inventory has continued to decline in both deep - and light - colored rubber, with a significant decline in light - colored rubber. The latest data shows that Thailand's natural rubber exports (excluding compound rubber) in the first three quarters of 2025 totaled 1.993 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 8% [34]. PVC - On the previous trading day, the main contract of PVC declined, and the spot price was adjusted downward. The basis remained stable. The current situation of oversupply in the PVC market continues, but the space for a further significant downward movement may be limited. It still needs to wait for the fundamentals to further improve. After the holiday, one should focus on exports and supply reduction [36]. - According to Longzhong data, the capacity utilization rate of PVC production enterprises this week has increased month - on - month and decreased year - on - year. Some downstream enterprises in the north have entered the off - season of demand, and their start - up rates are planned to be reduced. Affected by Indian holidays and anti - dumping duties, exports are mainly in a wait - and - see state and are expected to continue to decline. The overall digestion of PVC has decreased. In terms of cost and profit, coal prices have corrected, and semi - coke prices have increased. Due to unstable power supply and peak - shifting production, the calcium carbide price is relatively firm. The social inventory of PVC has decreased month - on - month but increased year - on - year [36][37]. Urea - On the previous trading day, the main contract of urea rose. The price in Shandong Linyi remained stable. The basis has slightly narrowed. In the short term, one should pay attention to changes in export policies and signals of seasonal recovery in agricultural demand. It is expected that urea will fluctuate within a narrow range this week [38]. - Some previously shut - down urea production devices have gradually resumed operation this week, but they have not fully recovered, and production has increased slightly. The tail orders of autumn fertilizers are coming to an end, and some start - up rates may be affected. Coal prices have remained stable, and the cost side has basically remained the same. The factory quotes of urea this period first decreased and then increased slightly, but the overall average price has decreased, and the urea profit has continued to narrow. Only the new coal gasification process has a small profit, while the fixed - bed natural gas process is significantly in the red. The total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises has decreased compared with last week [38]. p - Xylene (PX) - On the previous trading day, the main contract of PX rose slightly. The PXN spread has been adjusted, and the PX - MX spread has declined. The operating rate of PX has increased to 87%. Fujia Dahua restarted at the end of October and produced products at the beginning of November. In September, the mainland's PX import volume decreased both month - on - month and year - on - year. The oil price is still in a volatile and stalemate rhythm after the rebound from sanctions on Russia. One should pay attention to the situation in Venezuela [39]. - In the short term, the PX supply - demand structure has improved, the PXN spread is relatively firm, and the supply has slightly decreased. The cost - side crude oil is in a volatile adjustment. Therefore, PX may oscillate and adjust in the short term. One should participate within a range, control positions, be vigilant about crude oil changes, and pay attention to macro - policy changes [40][42]. PTA - On the previous trading day, the main contract of PTA2601 rose slightly. On the supply side, Yisheng Dahua has slightly reduced its load, and the PTA operating rate has been adjusted to around 78%. Dushan Energy's 4th - phase 3 - million - ton PTA project has been put into production in October and is currently operating on two lines. In November, the planned PTA maintenance is expected to be more than restarts. Many PTA production facilities have planned maintenance. On the demand side, the polyester device has changed little, and the polyester operating rate is 91.7%. The start - up rate of Jiangsu and Zhejiang terminals has increased, and factory raw material inventory has increased. In terms of efficiency, due to the mismatch between upstream and downstream, profits have been concentrated upstream, and the PTA processing fee has continued to decline [43]. - In the short term, the PTA processing fee is still low, the inventory is maintained at a low level, and the

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The "15th Five - Year Plan" draft can help identify future key focus areas. The Sino - US trade talks in Kuala Lumpur reached a phased consensus, which will reduce the impact of tariff policies on the market and improve market risk appetite [2]. - It is expected that the USD/CNY spot exchange rate will operate in the range of 7.09 - 7.14 this week, with a potentially stronger overall trend. Enterprises are advised to conduct exchange - rate risk management [4]. - The stock index is expected to continue to fluctuate in the short term as the Fed's rate - cut expectation has cooled, but there is support below [5]. - For treasury bonds, a long - term bullish view is maintained, and mid - term long positions should be held [6]. - The short - term bullish trend of container shipping futures on the European line will continue, but the widening basis between futures and spot prices increases volatility risk [10]. - Precious metals are in a short - term adjustment phase. In the long - term, the price center of gravity is expected to rise, and investors can look for mid - term buying opportunities on dips [15]. - Copper prices are under pressure from the rising US dollar index, but there is support below. Aluminum prices are expected to be in an upward channel in the long - term, while alumina prices may be weak in the short - term [17][18]. - Zinc prices are expected to be in a strong and volatile state, and tin prices have sufficient bottom support [20][21]. - Carbonate lithium is expected to be in a volatile and strong state, while industrial silicon and polysilicon are expected to be in a wide - range volatile state [23][25]. - Lead prices are expected to be in a high - level volatile state in the short - term [26]. - Rebar and hot - rolled coils are expected to be in a weak and volatile state, challenging previous lows [28]. - Coking coal and coke are suitable as long - positions in the black market, and their prices are expected to rise [30]. - Ferroalloys are expected to be in a volatile state, with high inventory and weak demand [31]. - Crude oil prices are expected to oscillate in the range of 60 - 65 US dollars this week, with limited upward or downward breakthrough potential [35]. - LPG is expected to be in a weak and volatile state, with limited fundamental support [37]. - PX - PTA is expected to be in a strong and volatile state along with the cost side, but the oversupply expectation of PTA still exists [40]. - Ethylene glycol is expected to be in a wide - range volatile state, and a short - selling strategy is recommended on rallies [44]. - Methanol 01 may continue to decline, and it is recommended to hold previous short - call positions [46]. - PP and PE are in a state of strong supply and weak demand, and their prices are expected to be weak [49][51]. - Pure benzene and styrene are expected to be weak and prone to decline, and short - selling opportunities after rallies are recommended [53][54]. - High - sulfur fuel oil cracking is expected to be weak, and profit - taking is recommended. Low - sulfur fuel oil's fundamentals have improved [55][57]. - Asphalt is in a weak state. Short - term waiting or short - selling on rallies is recommended [59]. - Rubber and 20 - number rubber are expected to be in a range - bound and volatile state, with support below but no strong upward drivers [62]. - Urea is expected to be in a weak and volatile state, facing pressure due to weak domestic demand [63]. - For glass, soda ash, and caustic soda, soda ash is expected to be weak, glass may decline towards the end of the 01 contract, and caustic soda's market pressure is increasing [64][66][67]. - Pulp and offset paper are expected to be in a relatively volatile state in the short - term [68]. - Logs are in a weak state, and short - selling on rallies and 01 - 03 reverse arbitrage opportunities are recommended [69][70]. - Propylene is expected to be in a weak state, with an overall loose supply situation [72]. 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Financial Futures - **Macro**: US employment data exceeded market expectations. The "15th Five - Year Plan" draft was released, and the Sino - US trade talks reached a phased consensus. The US government has been shut down for 36 days [1][2]. - **Renminbi Exchange Rate**: It is expected that the USD/CNY spot exchange rate will operate in the range of 7.09 - 7.14 this week, with a potentially stronger overall trend. Enterprises are advised to conduct exchange - rate risk management [4]. - **Stock Index**: The Fed's rate - cut expectation has cooled, and the stock index is expected to continue to fluctuate in the short term [5]. - **Treasury Bonds**: A long - term bullish view is maintained, and mid - term long positions should be held [6]. - **Container Shipping on the European Line**: The short - term bullish trend will continue, but the widening basis between futures and spot prices increases volatility risk [10]. Commodities Non - ferrous Metals - **Gold & Silver**: They are in a short - term adjustment phase. In the long - term, the price center of gravity is expected to rise, and investors can look for mid - term buying opportunities on dips [15]. - **Copper**: Copper prices are under pressure from the rising US dollar index, but there is support below. Some downstream orders have improved [17]. - **Aluminum Industry Chain**: Aluminum prices are expected to be in an upward channel in the long - term, while alumina prices may be weak in the short - term. Cast aluminum alloy has strong follow - up to aluminum prices [18][19]. - **Zinc**: It is expected to be in a strong and volatile state, with support at the bottom in November [20]. - **Tin**: It has sufficient bottom support, and a long - term bullish view is maintained [21]. - **Carbonate Lithium**: It is expected to be in a volatile and strong state, with a relatively stable supply increment and strong demand in November [23]. - **Industrial Silicon & Polysilicon**: Industrial silicon has a supply reduction expectation, and polysilicon's fundamentals are still weak [25]. - **Lead**: It is expected to be in a high - level volatile state in the short - term due to supply disturbances [26]. Black Metals - **Rebar & Hot - Rolled Coil**: They are expected to be in a weak and volatile state, challenging previous lows. The anti - dumping investigation on hot - rolled coils may affect far - month contracts [28]. - **Coking Coal & Coke**: They are suitable as long - positions in the black market, and their prices are expected to rise due to downstream replenishment and supply restrictions [30]. - **Ferroalloys**: They are in a state of high inventory and weak demand, and are expected to be in a volatile state [31]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: It is expected to oscillate in the range of 60 - 65 US dollars this week, with limited upward or downward breakthrough potential [35]. - **LPG**: It is expected to be in a weak and volatile state, with limited fundamental support [37]. - **PTA - PX**: It is expected to be in a strong and volatile state along with the cost side, but the oversupply expectation of PTA still exists [40]. - **MEG - Bottle Chip**: Ethylene glycol is expected to be in a wide - range volatile state, and a short - selling strategy is recommended on rallies [44]. - **Methanol**: Methanol 01 may continue to decline, and it is recommended to hold previous short - call positions [46]. - **PP and PE**: They are in a state of strong supply and weak demand, and their prices are expected to be weak [49][51]. - **Pure Benzene and Styrene**: They are expected to be weak and prone to decline, and short - selling opportunities after rallies are recommended [53][54]. - **Fuel Oil**: High - sulfur fuel oil cracking is expected to be weak, and profit - taking is recommended. Low - sulfur fuel oil's fundamentals have improved [55][57]. - **Asphalt**: It is in a weak state. Short - term waiting or short - selling on rallies is recommended [59]. - **Rubber & 20 - number Rubber**: They are expected to be in a range - bound and volatile state, with support below but no strong upward drivers [62]. - **Urea**: It is expected to be in a weak and volatile state, facing pressure due to weak domestic demand [63]. - **Glass, Soda Ash, and Caustic Soda**: Soda ash is expected to be weak, glass may decline towards the end of the 01 contract, and caustic soda's market pressure is increasing [64][66][67]. - **Pulp and Offset Paper**: They are expected to be in a relatively volatile state in the short - term [68]. - **Logs**: They are in a weak state, and short - selling on rallies and 01 - 03 reverse arbitrage opportunities are recommended [69][70]. - **Propylene**: It is expected to be in a weak state, with an overall loose supply situation [72].

化工日报 | 2025-11-06 高供应压力下EG延续弱势 核心观点 市场分析 期现货方面：昨日EG主力合约收盘价3914元/吨（较前一交易日变动+13元/吨，幅度+0.33%），EG华东市场现货价 3982元/吨（较前一交易日变动-13元/吨，幅度-0.33%），EG华东现货基差71元/吨（环比-2元/吨）。 生产利润方面：据隆众数据，乙烯制EG生产利润为-57美元/吨（环比-9美元/吨），煤制合成气制EG生产利润为-818 元/吨（环比-94元/吨）。 2025年期货市场研究报告 第1页 请仔细阅读本报告最后一页的免责声明 库存方面：根据 CCF 每周一发布的数据，MEG 华东主港库存为56.2万吨（环比+3.9万吨）；根据隆众每周四发布 的数据， MEG 华东主港库存为49.9万吨（环比+1.6万吨）。据CCF数据，上周华东主港计划到港总数14.25万吨， 副港到港量2.5万吨；本周华东主港计划到港总数18.9万吨，副港到港量7.4万吨，本周到港计划较多，预计将再度 累库。 整体基本面供需逻辑：供应端，国内乙二醇负荷高位运行，后期国内供应表现宽裕；海外乙二醇海外供应损失依 旧较多，沙特仍有两套以上装置 ...

Report Summary 1. Market Performance - As of the close on November 5th, most domestic futures main contracts declined. Polysilicon dropped over 2%, and fiberboard, asphalt, caustic soda, red dates, rebar, polypropylene, styrene, and international copper fell over 1%. On the upside, the European Line of container shipping rose over 4%, and eggs, rapeseed meal, live pigs, soybean meal, soybean No.2, soybean No.1, and pulp rose over 1%. The CSI 300 Index Futures (IF) main contract rose 0.41%, the SSE 50 Index Futures (IH) main contract fell 0.01%, the CSI 500 Index Futures (IC) main contract rose 0.55%, and the CSI 1000 Index Futures (IM) main contract rose 0.77%. The 2-year Treasury Bond Futures (TS) main contract fell 0.01%, the 5-year Treasury Bond Futures (TF) main contract remained flat, the 10-year Treasury Bond Futures (T) main contract fell 0.01%, and the 30-year Treasury Bond Futures (TL) main contract fell 0.08% [6][7]. - In terms of capital flow, as of 15:31 on November 5th, the CSI 1000 2512 contract had an inflow of 2.188 billion yuan, the CSI 500 2512 contract had an inflow of 553 million yuan, and the SSE 50 2512 contract had an inflow of 403 million yuan. The Shanghai Gold 2512 contract had an outflow of 1.08 billion yuan, the Shanghai Copper 2512 contract had an outflow of 918 million yuan, and the Shanghai Aluminum 2512 contract had an outflow of 682 million yuan [7]. 2. Commodity Analysis Copper - Shanghai copper opened low and moved high, showing weakness during the day. The US government shutdown continued, and the copper supply was tight due to the accident in the Indonesian copper mine and the upcoming smelter maintenance. The scrap copper supply was expected to increase with the rising copper price. The downstream demand was suppressed, and the inventory was slightly increasing. The copper price lacked a clear signal [9]. Lithium Carbonate - Lithium carbonate opened low, moved high, and then declined during the day. The upstream production was active, with an increase in output. The downstream demand was strong, driven by the energy storage battery. The inventory was decreasing. However, the market was affected by the news of large - scale production resumption, showing a pattern of both supply and demand increase. If the resumption news was confirmed, the supply might become more abundant, and the price might be weak in the short term [11]. Crude Oil - OPEC+ decided to increase production by 137,000 barrels per day in December, which would increase the supply pressure in the fourth quarter but relieve it in the first quarter of next year. The demand peak season ended, and the market was worried about the demand. The supply - surplus pattern remained, but the export of Russian crude oil was expected to be restricted. The price was expected to fluctuate recently [12]. Asphalt - The asphalt supply was expected to decrease in November. The downstream demand was affected by funds and weather. The inventory was at a low level. The crude oil price fluctuated, and the asphalt futures price was expected to be weak and volatile [15]. PP - The PP downstream开工率 increased slightly, but the plastic weaving开工率 decreased. The supply increased with new capacity and fewer maintenance devices. The demand in the peak season was lower than expected. The price was expected to be weak and volatile [16][17]. Plastic - The plastic开工率 increased, and the downstream开工率 decreased. The supply increased with new capacity. The demand in the peak season was not as good as expected. The price was expected to be weak and volatile [18]. PVC - The PVC开工率 increased, and the downstream开工率 was low. The export was expected to weaken. The inventory was high, and the real - estate market was still adjusting. The price was expected to be weak and volatile [20]. Coking Coal - The coking coal supply tightened, and the inventory was transferred downward. The demand was weak in the short term due to environmental protection restrictions but was expected to recover. The supply - demand balance was tight [21][22]. Urea - The urea upstream factory's shipment improved, and the price rose slightly. The production was expected to be high. The downstream demand was mainly for terminal fertilizer storage. The inventory increased. The price was expected to consolidate at a low level without substantial positive news [23].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The price of crude oil continues to be strong due to a decrease in Russian crude oil exports and rising VLCC freight rates. It is expected to continue to fluctuate in the short - term. The chemical industry shows a demand for stopping the decline and stabilizing under the situation of crude oil fluctuations [2][3]. - The chemical products in the industry have different trends. Some products may stop falling and stabilize, while others continue to be under pressure due to factors such as supply - demand relationships and cost [3][4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Situation and Logic - **Crude Oil**: Supply pressure persists, and geopolitical risks remain. API data shows an increase in US crude oil inventories last week, but the reduction in refined oil inventories and strong crack spreads support demand. OPEC+ plans to pause production increases in Q1 2026, but the current situation of continuous inventory accumulation is difficult to change, so the price fluctuates [8]. - **Chemical Industry**: Affected by the crude oil market, most chemical products are in a state of shock. Some products are facing cost and supply - demand pressures, while others have certain profit supports [3][4]. 3.2 Variety Analysis - **Asphalt**: With the weakening of crude oil and rebar, the asphalt futures price lacks support. The high - valued premium is starting to decline, and it is expected that the absolute price is over - valued and the monthly spread may decline [8]. - **High - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: As crude oil weakens, the fuel oil price is weak. Although the supply in the Asia - Pacific region may decrease in November, the demand is still weak, and attention should be paid to the development of the Russia - Ukraine conflict [8]. - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: It follows the weak trend of crude oil. Facing factors such as the decline in shipping demand and the substitution of green energy, it has a low valuation and is expected to fluctuate with crude oil [9][10]. - **PX**: The supply has not decreased, and there is support for profits under the situation of strong supply and demand. It is expected to return to the cost and fundamental pricing logic in the short - term and maintain range consolidation [11]. - **PTA**: The market is waiting and watching, and there is a bottom - support for short - term profits. It is expected that the price will fluctuate with cost and macro - sentiment, and there is a weakening expectation in the medium - term [11]. - **Pure Benzene**: It is running weakly. The pure benzene - naphtha price spread is at a low level in recent years, and there is an expectation of inventory accumulation. Although there are some supply disturbances, the upward drive is still insufficient [11][12]. - **Styrene**: There is still a risk of inventory over - filling, and it is expected to fluctuate weakly. The cost - side has some disturbances, but it does not reverse the situation, and the follow - up rhythm depends on crude oil [13]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: Under the resonance of cost and fundamentals, it is in a downward trend, and the medium - term supply surplus problem is difficult to solve. The price is under pressure in the short - term [15][16]. - **Short - Fiber**: Downstream factories are digesting previous stockpiles, and the processing fee is expected to be compressed to a certain extent. The price follows the cost and fluctuates weakly [19][20]. - **Bottle Chip**: Affected by cost, the supply - demand drive is limited. The price follows the raw materials, and the support for the processing fee below is enhanced [21]. - **Methanol**: After continuous decline, it is not advisable to chase short positions. It is expected to fluctuate in the short - term, and there is still value in going long at a low level [23][26]. - **Urea**: There is a co - existence of high - inventory suppression and cost support. It is expected to fluctuate narrowly in the short - term, and attention should be paid to the information of the Nanjing Phosphorus and Compound Fertilizer Conference [24]. - **Plastic**: The OPEC+ production increase is cautious. Considering the fundamentals and profit situation, it is expected to fluctuate within a range [27][28]. - **PP**: There is still some support on the cost side. It is expected to fluctuate within a range, and attention should be paid to the change and sustainability of maintenance [28][29]. - **PL**: The improvement in downstream transactions is limited. It is expected to fluctuate in the short - term [29]. - **PVC**: The market sentiment has cooled down, and the fundamentals are under pressure. It is expected to fluctuate weakly, and the cost of integrated production in the northwest may support the market [31]. - **Caustic Soda**: Supply and demand are both increasing, and the cost is moving up. The market is expected to fluctuate weakly, and the trading strategy is to go short on rallies [31]. 3.3 Variety Data Monitoring - **Energy and Chemical Daily Index Monitoring**: The report provides data on inter - period spreads, basis, and cross - variety spreads of various energy and chemical products, including Brent, Dubai, PX, PTA, etc. [33][34][35]. - **Chemical Basis and Spread Monitoring**: Although the report lists various chemicals such as methanol, urea, etc., specific content is not fully presented in the provided text. - **Commodity Index**: The comprehensive index, commodity 20 index, and industrial product index all show a decline. The energy index also shows a downward trend, with a daily decline of 1.07%, a 5 - day decline of 0.25%, a 1 - month decline of 5.01%, and a decline of 5.08% since the beginning of the year [274][276].

Commodity Price Information - Crude oil price on November 4, 2025, was $576.50 per ton, down 1.01% from the previous value of $582.38 [1] - The price of the Northeast Asia ethylene in the upstream cost on November 3, 2025, was $741.00 per ton, unchanged from the previous value [1] - The ex - factory price of ethylene oxide in the East China region on November 4, 2025, was $6000.00 per ton, unchanged from the previous value [1] - The price of methanol on November 4, 2025, was $2095.00 per ton, unchanged from the previous value [1] - The含税 price of lignite in Inner Mongolia on November 4, 2025, was $290.00 per ton, unchanged from the previous value [1] - The closing price of the main contract on November 4, 2025, was $3901.00 per ton, up 571.74% compared to a certain reference [1] - The settlement price of the main contract on November 4, 2025, was $3930.00 per ton, up 1% compared to a certain reference [1] - The closing price of the near - month contract on November 4, 2025, was $3860.00 per ton, with a change compared to a certain reference [1] - The settlement price of the near - month contract on November 4, 2025, was $3891.00 per ton [1] - The price on November 4, 2025, was $4018.00 per ton, up 5.134% compared to a certain reference [1] - The market price of ethylene glycol in the East China region on November 4, 2025, was $4070.00 per ton, unchanged from the previous value [1] - The price of domestic ethylene glycol on November 4, 2025, was $3900.00 per ton, up 1.73% compared to a certain reference [1] - The price difference between near - month and far - month contracts on November 4, 2025, was $88.00 per ton, with a comparison to a previous value [1] - The basis difference on November 4, 2025, was $74.00 per ton, with a comparison to a previous value [1] Production and Operation Information - The operating rate of oil - based ethylene glycol on November 4, 2025, was 66.51%, with a comparison to a previous value [1] - The operating rate of coal - based ethylene glycol on November 4, 2025, was 9.61%, with a comparison to a previous value [1] - The load rate of the PTA industry chain factory on November 4, 2025, was 89.68%, unchanged from the previous value [1] - The load rate of the textile machine industry in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang PTA industry chain on November 4, 2025, was 72.28%, unchanged from the previous value [1] External Market and Profit Information - The price of foreign - market oil - based ethylene glycol on November 3, 2025, was $1423.1 per ton, with a comparison to a previous value [1] - The price of foreign - market ethylene - based ethylene glycol on November 3, 2025, was $1026.9 per ton, with a comparison to a previous value [1] - The after - tax gross profit of the coal - based synthesis gas method on November 4, 2025, was $1466.3 per ton, with a comparison to a previous value [1] - The after - tax gross profit of a certain equipment on November 4, 2025, was $1022.1 per ton, with a comparison to a previous value [1] Product Price Index Information - The price index of polyester on November 4, 2025, was $8500.00 per ton, unchanged from the previous value [1] - The price index of polyester chips on November 4, 2025, was $6825.00 per ton, unchanged from the previous value [1] - The price index of polyester staple fiber on November 4, 2025, was $630.00 per ton, up 0.08% compared to a certain reference [1] - The price index of bottle - grade chips on November 4, 2025, was $5715.00 per ton, up 0.26% compared to a certain reference [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - For pure benzene, port inventory has rebounded again, indicating weak downstream提货 demand. Styrene is in the maintenance period, and the start - up rates of caprolactam and phenol are still low. On the supply side, the domestic pure benzene start - up rate has bottomed out and rebounded [3]. - For styrene, short - term maintenance continues, but port arrivals are still available. The decline in port inventory is due to a short - term increase in downstream提货, but the start - up of ABS is consolidating at a low level, and the start - up of PS has further decreased. The inventory pressure of the three major hard rubber products is still high, and the continuous performance of downstream提货 remains to be observed. The port basis of styrene has rebounded slightly, and low - level transactions have improved [3]. Summary by Directory I. Pure Benzene and EB's Basis Structure, Inter - period Spread - Figures related to pure benzene basis and futures price, pure benzene main contract basis, pure benzene spot - M2 paper cargo spread, pure benzene continuous first contract - continuous third contract spread, EB main contract trend & basis, EB main contract basis, and styrene continuous first contract - continuous third contract spread are presented [8][13][16] II. Pure Benzene and Styrene Production Profits, Internal and External Spreads - Figures related to naphtha processing fee, pure benzene FOB Korea - naphtha CFR Japan, styrene non - integrated plant production profit, pure benzene FOB US Gulf - pure benzene FOB Korea, pure benzene FOB US Gulf - CFR China, pure benzene FOB Rotterdam - CFR China, pure benzene import profit, styrene import profit, styrene FOB US Gulf - CFR China, and styrene FOB Rotterdam - CFR China are presented [19][22][31] III. Pure Benzene and Styrene Inventory, Start - up Rate - Figures related to pure benzene East China port inventory, pure benzene start - up rate, styrene East China port inventory, styrene start - up rate, styrene East China commercial inventory, and styrene factory inventory are presented [37][39][42] IV. Styrene Downstream Start - up and Production Profits - Figures related to EPS start - up rate, EPS production profit, PS start - up rate, PS production profit, ABS start - up rate, and ABS production profit are presented [48][50][53] V. Pure Benzene Downstream Start - up and Production Profits - Figures related to caprolactam start - up rate, phenol - ketone start - up rate, aniline start - up rate, adipic acid start - up rate, caprolactam production gross profit, phenol - ketone production gross profit, aniline production gross profit, adipic acid production gross profit, PA6 regular spinning bright production gross profit, nylon filament production gross profit, bisphenol A production gross profit, PC production gross profit, epoxy resin E - 51 production gross profit, pure MDI production gross profit, and polymer MDI production gross profit are presented [57][60][69] Market Data Pure Benzene - Main basis: - 33 yuan/ton (+53) [1] - Port inventory: 12.10 million tons (+3.60 million tons) [1] - CFR China processing fee: 99 US dollars/ton (+2 US dollars/ton) [1] - FOB Korea processing fee: 81 US dollars/ton (+1 US dollar/ton) [1] - US - Korea spread: 72.4 US dollars/ton (+0.0 US dollar/ton) [1] - East China pure benzene spot - M2 spread: - 65 yuan/ton (+20 yuan/ton) [1] - Downstream production profits: caprolactam - 1855 yuan/ton (+15), phenol - ketone - 553 yuan/ton (-75), aniline 1098 yuan/ton (+48), adipic acid - 1215 yuan/ton (-37) [1] - Downstream start - up rates: caprolactam 86.05% (-2.84%), phenol 78.00% (+0.00%), aniline 78.57% (+2.09%), adipic acid 58.00% (+2.20%) [1] Styrene - Main basis: 46 yuan/ton (+32 yuan/ton) [1] - Non - integrated production profit: - 444 yuan/ton (-49 yuan/ton), expected to gradually compress [1] - East China port inventory: 179,300 tons (-13,700 tons) [1] - East China commercial inventory: 109,800 tons (-11,200 tons), in the inventory reconstruction stage [1] - Start - up rate: 66.7% (-2.5%) [1] Downstream Hard Rubber - EPS production profit: 314 yuan/ton (+59 yuan/ton) [2] - PS production profit: - 36 yuan/ton (+9 yuan/ton) [2] - ABS production profit: - 38 yuan/ton (+106 yuan/ton) [2] - EPS start - up rate: 62.24% (+0.27%) [2] - PS start - up rate: 52.00% (-1.80%) [2] - ABS start - up rate: 72.10% (-0.70%) [2] Strategy - Unilateral: Cautiously short - sell and hedge BZ and EB at high prices [4] - Basis and inter - period: None [4] - Cross - variety: None [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - PTA: The spot market negotiation atmosphere is relatively dull, mostly by traders. The polyester factories are less active. The spot basis fluctuates within a range, and the market sentiment is wait - and - see. In the short term, the price is expected to fluctuate following the cost side. Pay attention to device changes [5]. - MEG: The price center of ethylene glycol has been continuously weakening, and the market negotiation is light. The supply is expected to be in surplus in the medium and long term, and the market sentiment is under pressure. It is expected that the price center of ethylene glycol will weaken in the near future. Pay attention to cost and device changes [7]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1. Previous Day's Review No relevant content provided. 3.2. Daily Tips - **PTA** - Fundamental: The PTA futures fluctuated and consolidated yesterday. The spot market negotiation atmosphere was average, and the spot basis loosened. The mainstream spot basis is at 01 - 75 [5]. - Basis: The spot price is 4525, and the 01 - contract basis is - 79, with the futures price at a premium. It is neutral [6]. - Inventory: The PTA factory inventory is 4.03 days, a decrease of 0.04 days compared to the previous period. It is bullish [6]. - Disk: The 20 - day moving average is upward, and the closing price is above the 20 - day moving average. It is bullish [6]. - Main position: The net short position is decreasing. It is bearish [6]. - **MEG** - Fundamental: On Tuesday, the price center of ethylene glycol continued to weaken, and the market negotiation was light. The overall sentiment in the market was weak. The spot basis of this week weakened to a premium of about 70 yuan/ton over the 01 contract. The overseas market price of ethylene glycol dropped significantly. It is neutral [7]. - Basis: The spot price is 3995, and the 01 - contract basis is 94, with the futures price at a discount. It is neutral [7]. - Inventory: The total inventory in the East China region is 49.8 tons, a decrease of 1.7 tons compared to the previous period. It is bearish [7]. - Disk: The 20 - day moving average is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day moving average. It is bearish [7]. - Main position: The main net short position is increasing. It is bearish [7]. 3.3. Today's Focus No relevant content provided. 3.4. Fundamental Data - **PTA Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: It shows the PTA production capacity, load, output, import, total supply, polyester production, consumption, and other data from January 2024 to December 2025 [10]. - **Ethylene Glycol Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: It shows the ethylene glycol production, import, total supply, polyester production, consumption, and other data from January 2024 to December 2025 [12]. - **Price**: It includes the prices and price changes of various products such as naphtha, p - xylene, PTA, ethylene glycol, and polyester on November 4 and November 3, 2025 [13]. - **Inventory Analysis**: It shows the inventory data of PTA, ethylene glycol, PET chips, and polyester products from 2020 to 2025 [41]. - **Polyester Upstream and Downstream Start - up Rates**: It shows the start - up rates of PTA, p - xylene, ethylene glycol, polyester factories, and Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms from 2020 to 2025 [52][56]. - **Profit**: It shows the profit data of PTA, ethylene glycol, and polyester products from 2020 to 2025 [60][62].

1. Investment Rating for the Industry No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The EG market remains weak under high supply pressure. The main EG contract closed at 3,901 yuan/ton, down 69 yuan/ton (-1.74%) from the previous trading day, and the spot price in the East China market was 3,995 yuan/ton, down 70 yuan/ton (-1.72%) [1]. - The production profit of ethylene - based EG was -$48/ton (down $5/ton), and that of coal - based syngas EG was -724 yuan/ton (down 67 yuan/ton) [1]. - MEG inventory in the main ports of East China increased. According to CCF data, it was 56.2 tons (up 3.9 tons), and according to Longzhong data, it was 49.9 tons (up 1.6 tons). The arrival plan this week is large, and inventory accumulation is expected [1]. - On the supply side, domestic ethylene glycol production is at a high level, and overseas supply losses are still significant with limited change in import expectations. On the demand side, the polyester downstream has moderately improved, but the increase in polyester load is limited [1]. - In the fourth quarter, there is a large pressure for inventory accumulation under high supply, with many production plans, and port inventory is expected to gradually rise [2]. 3. Summary According to the Directory Price and Basis - The main EG contract closed at 3,901 yuan/ton, down 69 yuan/ton (-1.74%) from the previous trading day, and the spot price in the East China market was 3,995 yuan/ton, down 70 yuan/ton (-1.72%). The spot basis in the East China market was 73 yuan/ton, down 3 yuan/ton [1]. Production Profit and Operating Rate - The production profit of ethylene - based EG was -$48/ton (down $5/ton), and that of coal - based syngas EG was -724 yuan/ton (down 67 yuan/ton) [1]. International Spread No specific content related to international spread is provided in the given text. Downstream Production and Sales and Operating Rate - With the recent cooling, the polyester downstream has moderately improved, but the increase in polyester load is limited [1]. Inventory Data - According to CCF data, MEG inventory in the main ports of East China was 56.2 tons (up 3.9 tons), and according to Longzhong data, it was 49.9 tons (up 1.6 tons). The arrival plan this week is large, and inventory accumulation is expected [1]. 4. Strategies - Unilateral: Cautiously short - sell on rallies for hedging. Under high supply, there is significant pressure for inventory accumulation in the fourth quarter, and port inventory is expected to gradually rise [2]. - Inter - period: Reverse spread of EG2601 - EG2605 [2]. - Inter - variety: No strategy is provided [2].

近期，国内甲醇期货与现货价格承压运行，高库存成为市场关注的焦点。 期货日报记者观察到，国庆假期之后，甲醇现货价格持续下跌，且区域差异明显。 汤剑林预计，随着伊朗装置季节性停车兑现，进口压力将逐步缓解，港口库存压力有望在明年一季度明 显下降。 在彭杰斌看来，港口库存压力缓解需要供应出现实质性收缩。"伊朗12月至次年2月的出口量将显著减 少；国内西南地区天然气制甲醇装置预计11月底开始限产，因此库存拐点最早可能出现在11月下 旬。"他称。 "长期来看，随着供应下降和新增需求释放，甲醇价格有望企稳回升。但短期而言，库存累积趋势未 改、MTO外采减少、传统需求淡季延续，市场仍将面临下行压力。"彭杰斌称。 汤剑林表示，虽然市场存在季节性供应减少的预期，但四季度进口量预计仍偏高，短期库存压力难以缓 解。 从短期来看，受访人士普遍认为甲醇市场基本面偏弱。汤剑林表示，期价快速下跌是基本面承压与化工 板块情绪偏弱共同作用的结果。在库存维持高位的背景下，甲醇价格暂无底部信号，缺乏向上驱动，短 期预计偏弱震荡，重点关注库存拐点确认时间。 蔡英超认为，内地甲醇需求自二季度起持续旺盛，国庆假期期间企业库存处于5年同期低位。港口高库 存 ...