化工板块回调，且伊朗局势未进一步激化 甲醇观点 市场要闻与重要数据 内地方面：Q5500鄂尔多斯动力煤515元/吨（+0），内蒙煤制甲醇生产利润280元/吨（+0）；内地甲醇价格方面，内 蒙北线1785元/吨（+0），内蒙北线基差133元/吨（+68），内蒙南线1810元/吨（+0）；山东临沂2183元/吨（-13），鲁 南基差131元/吨（+56）；河南2010元/吨（-5），河南基差-42元/吨（+63）；河北2015元/吨（+0），河北基差23元/吨 （+68）。隆众内地工厂库存424720吨（-13700），西北工厂库存242100吨（-19300）；隆众内地工厂待发订单265660 吨（+27392），西北工厂待发订单163800吨（+13000）。 甲醇日报 | 2026-02-03 贵金属及有色金属大幅下跌带动整个商品板块回调，拖累化工品价格走势。 港口方面。伊朗局势未进一步激化，关注局势后续发展，目前倾向于非战的谈判，而中国甲醇港口库存仍维持高 位，继续等待去库预期的兑现。进入2月市场开始预期伊朗装置冬检复工，但目前未有具体计划时间，关注实际复 工进度及伊朗局势对其的影响。而中国到港兑现滞后下 ...

2026 年 2 月 3 日星期二 重庆市江北区金沙门路 32 号 23 层； 023-67071029 上海市浦东新区世纪大道 210 号 10 楼 1001； 021-61101854 地址： 电话： 1 市场有风险 投资需谨慎 | 目录 | | --- | | 纸浆： 16 | | 碳酸锂： 16 | | --- | | 铜： 17 | | 铝： 18 | | 锌： 18 | | 铅： 19 | | 锡： 19 | | 镍： 19 | | 豆油、豆粕： 20 | | 棕榈油： 21 | | 菜粕、菜油： 21 | | 棉花： 22 | | 白糖： 23 | | 苹果： 24 | | 生猪： 24 | | 鸡蛋： 25 | | 玉米&淀粉： 26 | | 原木： 26 | | 免责声明 28 | 国债： 上一交易日，国债期货收盘多数下跌，30 年期主力合约涨 0.18%报 112.060 元， 10 年期主力合约跌 0.03%报 108.250 元，5 年期主力合约跌 0.02%报 105.860 元，2 年 期主力合约持平于 102.390 元。 公开市场方面，央行公告称，2 月 2 日以固定利率、数量 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究|能源化⼯策略⽇报 2026-02-03 油⽓价格回落，化⼯成本⽀撑减弱 据路透，特朗普表示伊朗正与华盛顿进行对话，美伊局势缓和预期带 动原油地缘溢价快速回落。另一方面，路透显示美国气温趋缓带动天然气 高位回落，前期取暖需求及油气替代的利多因素同步消退。Kpler数据显 示2月1日当周全球原油库存自低点大幅回升，随着CPC发运量底部回升， 俄罗斯港口原油发运量已回升至同期高位，路透显示目前哈萨克斯坦油田 仍处复产期，2月1日前已恢复20%产能。原油现实层面的供应压力仍在， 美伊局势主导短线波动，若地缘担忧持续缓和，仍存向下压力，对油化工 可能形成阶段性拖累。 板块逻辑： 原油价格下挫，2月2日能化板块中油品系跌幅居首。聚酯开工快速回 落，PTA加工费阶段性承压，纯苯及苯乙烯后续存去库预期，价格预计震 荡偏强。伊朗担忧减弱后，甲醇、燃料油均有地缘溢价消退，烯烃端虽年 内仍面临供应增量，但短期存在检修支撑。整体来看，化工预计表现震 荡，持续关注成本端指引。（以上数据及信息来源为路透、隆众及CCF） 原油：供应压力仍在，地缘主导节奏 沥青：原油重挫，沥青期 ...

gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn 综合晨报 2026年02月02日 (原油) 【铝】 周五贵金属暴跌导致市场情绪逆转，有色整体走弱。短期宏观和基本面均对价格形成一定压制，关 注近期区间低点23800元位置支撑，跌破则可能继续向下寻找支撑。此外仍需关注美伊局势是否会 再度引发供应链担忧。 【铸造铝合金】 铸造铝合金跟随沪铝波动,市场活跃度不高。宏观驱动且价格处于高位,铸造铝合金跟涨乏力,与 沪铝价差季节性表现将持续弱于往年。 (氧化铝) 国内氧化铝运行产能维持高位，检修情况增加但长期减产未出现，氧化铝平衡持续处于显著过剩。 矿石跌势下氧化铝现金成本支撑低至2500元以下，现货企稳还需等待规模城产形成,基差处于低 位，盘面持续反弹驱动不强。 伊朗外交部长2月1日表示，伊朗对与美国就核问题达成协议"仍然有信心"。此前伊朗称2/1-2/2 将在霍尔木兹海峡举行实弹军演这一消息带来的地缘溢价已基本被完全回吐,Brent 与WTI原油分 别跌至67美元/桶、63美元/桶。伊朗因素更多扮演油价波动放大器的角色即伊朗地缘局势给油价带 来阶段性溢价,但难以单独推动价格中枢持续上行。真正能改写当下原油供需 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 PTA&MEG早报-2026年2月2日 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 投资咨询资格证号：Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 前日回顾 2 每日提示 3 4 今日关注 基本面数据 5 PTA 每日观点 PTA： 6、预期：春节假期临近，聚酯减产幅度扩大，终端放假在即，PTA供需趋累；现货市场交易活跃度明显下降，周内现货基差波 动不大，不过PTA加工差环比改善，关注后期PTA供应端计划外增量。 1、基本面：周五，2月上在05-75有成交，个别略低05-80，2月中在05-70~75有成交，在价格商谈区间在5150~5410。2月下在个 别05-70成交。3下零星在05-40有成交。今日主流现货基差在05-76。中性 2、基差：现货5290，05合约基差20，盘面贴水 偏多 3、库存：PTA工厂库存3.58天，环比减少0.04天 偏多 ...

其中7只A股平均涨幅17.37%，分别跑赢上证综指、沪深300指数13.61、15.72个百分点。 3只港股平均涨幅15.77%，跑赢恒生指数8.92个百分点。 2月申万宏源十大金股 【申万宏源】2026年第一期十大金股组合表现及2月推荐 申万宏源2026年第一期十大金股组合表现亮眼，1月单月整体上涨16.89%。 【华鲁恒升】：国内化工品 "反内卷"政策陆续出台，行业格局确定性优化；低成本核心优势不断巩固，未来规划 清晰，成长路径确定性高，有望实现量价齐升。 【帝尔激光】：公司在主业光伏领域保持较强竞争力，新技术升级提升价值量；先进封装 / 半导体等非光伏业务 迎放量拐点，优化盈利结构。 除了 "铁三角"，申万宏源看好的其余七只金股为： 首推 "铁三角"： 【申万宏源】2026年第一期十大金股组合表现及2月推荐 申万宏源2026年第一期十大金股组合表现亮眼，1月单月整体上涨16.89%。 其中7只A股平均涨幅17.37%，分别跑赢上证综指、沪深300指数13.61、15.72个百分点。 3只港股平均涨幅15.77%，跑赢恒生指数8.92个百分点。 2月申万宏源十大金股 首推 "铁三角"： 【贵州茅台】：市场 ...

Group 1: Core Insights - The report indicates that the "Top Ten Gold Stocks" from Shenwan Hongyuan for the period of January 1 to January 30, 2026, achieved a return of 16.89%, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index and the CSI 300 Index by 13.61 and 15.72 percentage points respectively [8][19] - Since the first release of the gold stock list on March 28, 2017, the cumulative return of the gold stock portfolio has reached 486.47%, with the A-share portfolio up by 361.41% [8][19] - The strategy judgment for the upcoming month suggests a continuation of the spring market trend, with a focus on cyclical sectors for Alpha opportunities, while also indicating that upward resistance is increasing as the market transitions into a phase of sector rotation [8][16] Group 2: Investment Strategy - The report recommends focusing on the main catalysts for February and seizing opportunities in style rotation, particularly in the food and beverage and real estate sectors [16] - In the cyclical sector, it is advised to continue monitoring quality targets that exhibit both Beta elasticity and Alpha value [16] - The report highlights the "Iron Triangle" stocks: Guizhou Moutai, Hualu Hengsheng, and Dier Laser as top picks, alongside other recommended stocks including Huayou Cobalt, Longsheng Technology, Foster, New City Holdings, Dingjie Smart, Alibaba-W (Hong Kong), and Tencent Holdings (Hong Kong) [8][19] Group 3: Stock Performance and Recommendations - The top ten gold stocks include Guizhou Moutai, Hualu Hengsheng, Dier Laser, Huayou Cobalt, Longsheng Technology, Foster, New City Holdings, Dingjie Smart, Alibaba-W (Hong Kong), and Tencent Holdings (Hong Kong) [19][20] - Guizhou Moutai is noted for its market reform and potential for exceeding sales expectations during the upcoming Spring Festival [20] - Hualu Hengsheng is expected to benefit from domestic chemical industry policies that enhance market structure, while Dier Laser is recognized for its strong competitiveness in the photovoltaic sector [20][22]

Market Overview - The overall trend of bulk commodities is characterized by significant fluctuations, with domestic commodities experiencing a two-day rise followed by a morning pullback, while international markets (precious metals, crude oil) also show substantial volatility, indicating intense competition between bulls and bears without clear directional continuation [3][23]. Strongest/Weakest Sectors and Core Products - Strong sectors include precious metals, with Shanghai silver rising 8.32% to set a new historical high, and international gold showing a V-shaped reversal with over 10% intraday volatility [4][23]. - The non-ferrous metals sector, represented by Shanghai copper and LME copper, also performed well, with Shanghai copper increasing by 6.18% and LME copper by 4.73%, supported by a decline in Chilean copper production [4][23]. - The energy and chemical sector saw Shanghai crude oil rise by 6%, driven by cost increases and geopolitical tensions from military exercises in the Strait of Hormuz [4][23]. - Conversely, the photovoltaic raw material sector, particularly polysilicon, faced a downturn, with a 6.18% drop in the polysilicon 2605 contract due to high inventory and demand exhaustion [4][23]. Core Trading Strategies and Execution - The strategy emphasizes profit-taking and risk management, with previous long positions being closed to lock in gains, while maintaining a light long position in PVC2605 and focusing on the bearish trend of polysilicon [6][24]. - Previous long positions in fuel, plastics, and non-ferrous metals achieved significant profits, with Shanghai copper and silver exceeding 63% gains [27][30]. - The current strategy for PVC2605 involves a light long position with a maximum allocation of 10% of total equity, aiming for a first profit target of 4970-4980 points and a subsequent target of 5100-5150 points [28][30]. Global Market Context - Internationally, macroeconomic tensions are evident, with contrasting positions from Trump advocating for interest rate cuts and Powell maintaining high rates, leading to increased volatility in the dollar [25]. - Geopolitical risks are heightened due to military exercises planned by Iran, which are expected to boost demand for oil and precious metals as safe-haven assets [25]. - The market is experiencing significant fluctuations, with international precious metals showing intraday volatility exceeding 8% and Bitcoin dropping over 6% [25]. Domestic Market Dynamics - Regulatory bodies have issued warnings regarding increased market uncertainty ahead of the Spring Festival, urging investors to act rationally [26]. - Domestic commodities are influenced by both internal and external market dynamics, with Shanghai silver and copper leading gains while polysilicon faces downward pressure due to high inventory levels [26]. Future Considerations - The company plans to maintain a cautious approach, focusing on light positions and closely monitoring the stop-loss levels for PVC2605, while tracking the bearish trend in polysilicon for potential short opportunities [33][37]. - The strategy will prioritize high liquidity and clear trend products, avoiding low volatility items with unclear supply-demand dynamics [36].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Views - Yesterday, the closing price of the main EG contract was 3,957 yuan/ton (a change of -13 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, a decrease of -0.33%), the spot price of EG in the East China market was 3,837 yuan/ton (a change of -6 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, a decrease of -0.16%), and the spot basis of EG in East China was -116 yuan/ton (a month-on-month increase of 2 yuan/ton) [1]. - According to Longzhong data, the production gross profit of ethylene - made EG was -$41/ton (a month - on - month increase of $2/ton), and the production gross profit of coal - based syngas - made EG was -710 yuan/ton (a month - on - month increase of 13 yuan/ton) [1]. - According to CCF data released every Monday, the inventory of MEG in the main ports of East China was 858,000 tons (a month - on - month increase of 63,000 tons); according to Longzhong data released every Thursday, the inventory of MEG in the main ports of East China was 645,000 tons (a month - on - month increase of 28,000 tons). The total planned arrival at the main ports in East China this week is 147,000 tons, and the arrival at the secondary ports is 28,000 tons, which is slightly high overall, and it is expected that the main ports will continue to accumulate inventory [2]. - On the domestic supply side, the extrusion of the syngas production load is not obvious, the domestic ethylene glycol load is at a high level, and the inventory accumulation pressure is still large under the high supply from January to February and the weakening demand. Overseas, with the maintenance of Saudi and Taiwanese plants, the import pressure will ease around the end of February, but it will still be large from January to February, and there will be a slight inventory reduction in March. On the demand side, the Spring Festival maintenance plans in mid - January have been gradually implemented, the weaving load and polyester load have accelerated their decline, and the support of rigid demand has weakened [2]. Summary by Directory Price and Basis - The closing price of the main EG contract was 3,957 yuan/ton (a change of -13 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, a decrease of -0.33%), the spot price of EG in the East China market was 3,837 yuan/ton (a change of -6 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, a decrease of -0.16%), and the spot basis of EG in East China was -116 yuan/ton (a month - on - month increase of 2 yuan/ton) [1]. Production Profit and Operating Rate - The production gross profit of ethylene - made EG was -$41/ton (a month - on - month increase of $2/ton), and the production gross profit of coal - based syngas - made EG was -710 yuan/ton (a month - on - month increase of 13 yuan/ton) [1]. International Price Difference No specific data presented in the content. Downstream Production, Sales and Operating Rate - In mid - January, the Spring Festival maintenance plans were gradually implemented, the weaving load and polyester load accelerated their decline, and the support of rigid demand weakened [2]. Inventory Data - According to CCF data released every Monday, the inventory of MEG in the main ports of East China was 858,000 tons (a month - on - month increase of 63,000 tons); according to Longzhong data released every Thursday, the inventory of MEG in the main ports of East China was 645,000 tons (a month - on - month increase of 28,000 tons). The total planned arrival at the main ports in East China this week is 147,000 tons, and the arrival at the secondary ports is 28,000 tons, which is slightly high overall, and it is expected that the main ports will continue to accumulate inventory [2]. Strategies - Unilateral: Be cautiously bullish near the support level of 3,900 yuan/ton. Pay attention to the capital dynamics and the relative changes in the valuations of various ethylene downstream products after the price increase [3]. - Inter - period: Reverse spread of EG2603 - EG2605 [3]. - Inter - variety: None [3].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - In February, CP prices rose month - on - month, and the cost side had strong support. The overall supply - demand fundamentals of propylene remained tight, with strong cost - side support. The market sentiment in the chemical sector was warming up, and the futures market continued its strong trend. It was recommended to cautiously go long on a single - side basis for hedging [1][2][3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog 3.1 Market News and Important Data - **Propylene**: The closing price of the propylene main contract was 6317 yuan/ton (+36), the spot price in East China was 6540 yuan/ton (-10), and in North China was 6400 yuan/ton (+0). The East China basis was 223 yuan/ton (-46), and the Shandong basis was 83 yuan/ton (-36). The operating rate was 70% (-1%), the difference between China's propylene CFR and Japan's naphtha CFR was 241 US dollars/ton (-16), and the difference between propylene CFR and 1.2 propane CFR was 95 US dollars/ton (+7). The import profit was - 308 yuan/ton (+75), and the in - plant inventory was 42,790 tons (+3,810) [1] - **Propylene downstream**: The PP powder operating rate was 32% (+1.29%), with a production profit of - 200 yuan/ton (+20); the propylene oxide operating rate was 73% (+0%), with a production profit of - 375 yuan/ton (+0); the n - butanol operating rate was 86% (-1%), with a production profit of 1,070 yuan/ton (+30); the octanol operating rate was 91% (-5%), with a production profit of 1,270 yuan/ton (+150); the acrylic acid operating rate was 84% (+3%), with a production profit of 150 yuan/ton (+0); the acrylonitrile operating rate was 69% (-6%), with a production profit of - 954 yuan/ton (+71); the phenol - acetone operating rate was 88% (+3%), with a production profit of - 781 yuan/ton (+137) [1] 3.2 Market Analysis - **Supply**: PDH device shutdown news was gradually realized. Multiple PDH devices were under maintenance or restarted, resulting in a significant decline in the domestic PDH operating rate and a tight short - term supply in the propylene spot market [2] - **Demand**: Downstream rigid demand support continued, but after the propylene price rose to a high level, downstream costs were significantly pressured, and demand follow - up might be limited. The operating rates of downstream products showed mixed changes, with different impacts on propylene demand [2] - **Cost**: Geopolitical disturbances between the US and Iran strengthened, causing international oil prices to rise significantly. Propane prices remained strong. Saudi Aramco's February CP for propane was announced at 545 US dollars/ton, a month - on - month increase of 20 US dollars/ton, strengthening the short - term cost - side support for propylene [2] 3.3 Strategy - **Single - side**: Cautiously go long on a single - side basis for hedging. The supply - demand structure was still tight, which supported prices. Geopolitical disturbances led to a sharp rise in international oil prices, and the external propane market was strong. Due to profit pressure, PDH device maintenance might intensify, and the short - term futures market was expected to remain strong [3] - **Inter - period**: Not provided - **Inter - variety**: Not provided