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纯苯苯乙烯日报:纯苯盘面再度走强,期货升水扩大-20250710
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-07-10 07:12
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The pure benzene futures price has strengthened, with the futures premium expanding, and the basis structure shows a negative basis. The fundamentals indicate that there is still pressure from South Korea's exports to China, domestic production is high, downstream demand is mixed, and the processing fee is weak [3]. - For styrene, port inventories are accumulating, the discount on the futures has narrowed, production profits are under pressure to compress, and downstream demand is weak [3]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Pure Benzene and EB's Basis Structure, Inter - Period Spread - The pure benzene futures premium has widened significantly, with the 2603BZ futures contract having a premium of about 170 yuan/ton over the spot [3]. - Figures related to the basis and inter - period spread are presented, including the pure benzene spot - M2 paper cargo spread, EB main contract basis, and the spread between the first and third styrene contracts [8][12][14]. 3.2 Pure Benzene and Styrene Production Profits, Internal and External Spreads - Pure benzene processing fees are weak, with the CFR China processing fee at 145 dollars/ton (-7 dollars/ton) and the FOB South Korea processing fee at 131 dollars/ton (-5 dollars/ton) [1]. - Styrene non - integrated production profit is 192 yuan/ton (+6 yuan/ton), but it is expected to gradually compress [1]. - Various spreads and production profit figures are shown in the corresponding figures, such as the naphtha processing fee, the difference between pure benzene FOB South Korea and naphtha CFR Japan, etc. [18][20][27]. 3.3 Pure Benzene and Styrene Inventories, Operating Rates - Pure benzene port inventory is 17.40 million tons (-0.30 million tons), and styrene East China port inventory is 111,500 tons (+12,700 tons), with East China commercial inventory at 39,000 tons (+7,700 tons) [1]. - The pure benzene operating rate situation is not clearly described in quantity, and the styrene operating rate is 80.0% (-0.1%) [1]. 3.4 Styrene Downstream Operating Rates and Production Profits - EPS production profit is 41 yuan/ton (-30 yuan/ton), PS production profit is - 259 yuan/ton (-30 yuan/ton), and ABS production profit is 391 yuan/ton (-27 yuan/ton) [2]. - EPS operating rate is 55.88% (-3.84%), PS operating rate is 51.10% (-1.30%), and ABS operating rate is 65.04% (-0.96%), at a seasonal low [2]. 3.5 Pure Benzene Downstream Operating Rates and Production Profits - Among pure benzene downstream products, the caprolactam production profit is - 1560 yuan/ton (+0), the phenol - ketone production profit is - 564 yuan/ton (+0), the aniline production profit is 134 yuan/ton (-389), and the adipic acid production profit is - 1415 yuan/ton (-27) [1]. - The caprolactam operating rate is 95.72% (+6.41%), the phenol operating rate is 78.50% (-0.50%), the aniline operating rate is 69.24% (-0.10%), and the adipic acid operating rate is 64.30% (+2.00%) [1]. 4. Strategies - Unilateral: Cautiously short - sell pure benzene and styrene on rallies for hedging [4]. - Cross - product: Narrow the EB - BZ spread on rallies [4].
宏源期货品种策略日报-20250708
Hong Yuan Qi Huo· 2025-07-08 06:25
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information was found. 2. Core View of the Report - The market for ethylene glycol is currently in a weak state, with prices fluctuating at a low level and overall trading being rather stagnant. The downstream polyester production and sales are generally light, and the reduction in production scale is gradually increasing. At the same time, the supply is expected to increase as multiple ethylene glycol units complete maintenance. The cost support is weakening due to the easing of geopolitical conflicts and the weakening of crude oil trends. Overall, the ethylene glycol market is expected to remain weak in the short term [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Price Information - The mid - price of naphtha is $577.00 per ton on 2025/7/7, up 0.30% from the previous value; the upstream cost on 202/4/8 is 1.00, unchanged from the previous value [1]. - The ex - factory price of ethylene oxide in the East China region is 6,450.00 yuan per ton on 2025/7/8, unchanged from the previous value [1]. - The price of methanol is 4,42.02 yuan per ton on 202/24, unchanged from the previous value [1]. - The tax - included price of lignite in Inner Mongolia is 290.00 yuan per ton on 202, unchanged from the previous value [1]. - The settlement price of the main contract is 4,282.00 yuan per ton on 202, down 0.26% from the previous value; the settlement price of the nearby contract is 4,226.00 yuan per ton on 202, unchanged from the previous value [1]. - The market mid - price of ethylene glycol in the East China region is 430.00 yuan per ton on 202, unchanged from the previous value [1]. - The price difference between the near and far months is 56.00 yuan per ton on 2025/7/7, and the basis is - 11.00 yuan per ton [1]. - The comprehensive price of ethylene glycol is 1.00 on 202, down 2.00 from the previous value [1]. - The price index of polyester fiber is 8,750.00 yuan per ton on 2025/7/7, up 1.41% from the previous value; the price index of polyester chips is 10.00 on 202, up 1.72% from the previous value; the price index of polyester staple fiber is 6,710.00 yuan per ton on 2025/7/7, unchanged from the previous value; the price index of bottle - grade chips is 90.00 yuan per ton on 202, unchanged from the previous value [1]. Production and Operation Information - An Anhui synthetic gas - to - ethylene glycol unit with an annual capacity of 300,000 tons is expected to resume operation this month after a mid - month shutdown and maintenance [2]. - The operating rate of the polyester industry chain: the operating rate of PTA factories is 87.30% on 2025/7/7, down 0.94% from the previous value; the operating rate of Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms is 61.22% on 202, unchanged from the previous value [1]. - The production and sales of polyester filament, polyester staple fiber, and polyester chips are 1.0%, 0%, and 0% respectively, showing a downward trend [2]. Trade and Strategy Information - The mainstream negotiation price of external - market naphtha - based ethylene glycol is around $410.99 per ton on 202; the negotiation price of external - market ethylene - based ethylene glycol is around $144.15 per ton on 2025/7/4 [1]. - The post - tax gross profit of coal - based ethylene glycol is 1,800.00 yuan per ton on 202, up 24.67 from the previous value [1]. - In the trading strategy, the trading volume of the current stage is 160,000 lots, and the price is 2,092.90 yuan per ton [2].
对二甲苯:PTA新装置投产在即,PX供需仍偏紧,PTA:多PX空PTA止盈,月差反套
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-07-08 01:56
Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the given content Core Views - The report provides daily research and analysis on various energy and chemical futures, including trends, fundamentals, and trading suggestions for each commodity [2] - Different commodities are expected to have different market trends, such as some in a state of shock, some with upward or downward pressure, and some with specific trading strategies recommended Summary by Related Catalogs PX, PTA, MEG - **PX**: PTA new device is about to be put into production, but PX supply - demand remains tight. Suggest monthly spread positive arbitrage and short PXN at high levels [4][7][12] - **PTA**: Stop profit on long PX short PTA, and conduct monthly spread reverse arbitrage. Supply will be marginally loose from mid - July, and it is recommended to focus on monthly spread reverse arbitrage [4][12] - **MEG**: It is a single - sided shock market. Suggest basis and monthly spread positive arbitrage, and do not chase short on a single - sided valuation. Import is expected to be tight in August, and it is recommended to go long on a single - sided basis at low levels [4][13][14] Rubber - Rubber is expected to run in a shock state. The trading volume and open interest of the main contract have changed slightly, and the inventory in Qingdao has increased slightly [15][16][17] Synthetic Rubber - Synthetic rubber is under shock pressure. The cost side is weakening, and the supply increment is greater than the demand increment. The NR - BR spread may support the price [19][20][21] Asphalt - Asphalt is expected to rise in a shock state with a downward valuation adjustment. The weekly output has increased, and both factory and social inventories have accumulated [22][34] LLDPE - LLDPE is expected to be in a short - term weak shock state. The macro - situation has led to a premium retracement, and the supply pressure is increasing while the demand is weak [35][36] PP - PP spot prices are falling, and trading is dull. Futures are oscillating downward, and downstream demand is weak [40][41] Caustic Soda - The price of caustic soda futures has rebounded due to the sharp decline in liquid chlorine prices. The short - term spot has rebounded, but the supply pressure is still large, and the cost has increased [43][45] Pulp - Pulp is expected to run in a shock state. The spot price is stable, the supply pressure is not relieved, and the demand is weak [49][51][52] Glass - The price of glass raw sheets is stable. The market shows a trend of mixed rise and fall, and the downstream demand is not strong [55][56] Methanol - Methanol is expected to run in a short - term shock state. The supply has decreased slightly, and the demand has also weakened. It is expected to oscillate within a narrow range [59][61] Urea - Urea is expected to run in a shock state. The domestic market is supported by domestic demand and export, and the inventory is in a shock pattern. There is a multi - empty game in the short term [63][64][66] Styrene - Styrene is expected to be in a short - term shock state. Pay attention to the listing of pure benzene futures, and different trading strategies are recommended [67][71][72] Soda Ash - The spot market of soda ash has little change. The market is in a low - level shock state, with supply at a high level and weak demand [74][76] LPG - LPG is expected to have a short - term wide - range shock. The PDH and other开工 rates have changed, and there are many device maintenance plans [79][81][87] PVC - PVC is in a short - term shock state with pressure in the later stage. The supply reduction drive is insufficient, and the high - output and high - inventory structure is difficult to change [91][92] Fuel Oil - **Fuel Oil**: The night session followed the rise in crude oil prices, and short - term fluctuations may increase again [95] - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: The strong trend continues, and the spread between high - and low - sulfur in the overseas spot market oscillates at a high level [95] Container Shipping Index (European Line) - The EC2508 contract is expected to oscillate and consolidate, and it is recommended to hold a light short position in the EC2510 contract [97]
基础化工品期货再添新成员 证监会同意丙烯期货期权注册
Zheng Quan Ri Bao Wang· 2025-07-04 13:10
Core Viewpoint - The China Securities Regulatory Commission has approved the registration of propylene futures and options on the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange, which is expected to enhance risk management tools for the propylene industry and support high-quality development [1] Industry Summary - Propylene is a crucial basic chemical product with upstream raw materials including crude oil, naphtha, coal, methanol, and propane, and downstream products such as polypropylene, epoxy propane, and acrylonitrile, which are widely used in various sectors like home appliances, automotive, textiles, medical devices, and cosmetics [1] - China is the world's largest producer and consumer of propylene, with a projected apparent consumption of 55.36 million tons and a market size of approximately 384.5 billion yuan in 2024 [1] - The introduction of propylene futures and options is expected to provide a pivotal role in the industry chain, offering enhanced risk management tools for enterprises, facilitating better hedging strategies, and improving the resilience of the industry chain [1] Company Impact - The launch of propylene futures and options is seen as a significant milestone for the domestic futures market, providing robust inventory hedging tools and processing interval hedging tools for upstream and downstream enterprises in the propylene industry [2] - Major companies in the industry, such as Donghua Energy, have indicated that the new futures and options will help fill the gap in the C3 chain, allowing firms to lock in propylene purchase and sales prices, thus mitigating risks from price fluctuations in the spot market [2] - Companies like Jinneng Chemical have expressed that using propylene futures can help secure processing profits and reduce operational losses, contributing to stable business development [2] Market Dynamics - Domestic propylene enterprises are actively expanding into international markets, but often rely on limited and less transparent pricing from foreign information agencies; the introduction of propylene futures is expected to enhance the international pricing influence of Chinese propylene [3] - The simultaneous launch of propylene futures and options will cater to the diverse and personalized risk management needs of enterprises, allowing for flexible selection of various option contracts and strategies [3] - The Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange is committed to ensuring a smooth launch of propylene futures and options, conducting market cultivation activities, and promoting typical case studies to enrich enterprise risk management strategies [3]
化工日报:终端织造加弹负荷加速下行-20250704
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-07-04 06:24
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - PX/PTA/PF/PR are rated as neutral [5] 2. Core Viewpoints - In the short term, after the game of the Middle East conflict, the crude oil market will focus on fundamentals and tariff impacts. The pattern of strong reality and weak expectation remains unchanged. However, in the fourth quarter of this year, after the peak season ends, the demand growth elasticity will be significantly smaller than the supply side, and crude oil is expected to enter a state of oversupply [2] - In terms of gasoline and aromatics, the US gasoline crack has retreated again recently. Against the background of new energy substitution, the upside space of the gasoline crack spread is limited. The blending oil demand this year is not worth much expectation. The intermittent blending oil demand at home and abroad can basically be met by naphtha, which limits the enthusiasm of aromatics to enter the gasoline pool [2] - For PX, several domestic PX units are under maintenance recently, and the supply and demand side remains tight. With the high downstream PTA start - up and the new PTA production in the third quarter, PXN is expected to be supported [2][5] - PTA has no major fundamental contradictions, but there is an expectation of weakening on the demand side due to the bottle - chip maintenance plan. Attention should be paid to the cost and demand support [5] - For PF, the short - fiber spot is tight and the inventory is not high, but the downstream's acceptance of high raw material prices is limited, and most of them purchase on a just - in - time basis. Attention should be paid to the cost - side support [3] - For PR, the current bottle - chip profit is still low. With the gradual implementation of production cuts, the processing fee is expected to be repaired [4] 3. Summary by Directory I. Price and Basis - The report shows the TA main contract, basis, and inter - period spread trends, PX main contract trends, basis, and inter - period spread trends, PTA East China spot basis, and short - fiber 1.56D*38mm semi - bright white basis [9][10][12] II. Upstream Profits and Spreads - It includes PX processing fee PXN, PTA spot processing fee, South Korean xylene isomerization profit, and South Korean STDP selective disproportionation profit [17][22] III. International Spreads and Import - Export Profits - It involves the toluene US - Asia spread, toluene South Korea FOB - Japan naphtha CFR, and PTA export profit [24][26] IV. Upstream PX and PTA Start - up - It presents the start - up of PTA in China, South Korea, and Taiwan, as well as the start - up of PX in China and Asia [27][30][32] V. Social Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - It shows the weekly social inventory of PTA, monthly social inventory of PX, PTA total warehouse receipts + forecast volume, PTA warehouse warehouse receipts inventory, PX warehouse receipts inventory, and PF warehouse receipts inventory [35][38][39] VI. Downstream Polyester Load - It includes the production and sales of filament and short - fiber, polyester load, direct - spinning filament load, polyester staple fiber load, polyester bottle - chip load, filament factory inventory days, and the start - up rates of Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms, texturing machines, and printing and dyeing machines [46][48][57] VII. PF Detailed Data - It presents the polyester staple fiber load, polyester staple fiber factory equity inventory days, 1.4D physical inventory, 1.4D equity inventory, recycled cotton - type staple fiber load, raw - recycled spread, pure polyester yarn start - up rate, pure polyester yarn production profit, polyester - cotton yarn start - up rate, polyester - cotton yarn processing fee, pure polyester yarn factory inventory available days, and polyester - cotton yarn factory inventory available days [67][68][77] VIII. PR Fundamental Detailed Data - It includes the polyester bottle - chip load, bottle - chip factory bottle - chip inventory days, bottle - chip spot processing fee, bottle - chip export processing fee, bottle - chip export profit, East China water bottle - chip - recycled 3A - grade white bottle - chip, bottle - chip next - month spread, and bottle - chip next - next - month spread [84][86][93]
港口库存大幅下降,但本周可能回升
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-07-01 04:36
Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **Market Analysis**: The closing price of the main EG contract was 4,267 yuan/ton (down 4 yuan/ton or -0.09% from the previous trading day), the spot price of EG in the East China market was 4,335 yuan/ton (down 5 yuan/ton or -0.12% from the previous trading day), and the spot basis of EG in East China (based on the 2509 contract) was 64 yuan/ton (down 3 yuan/ton month-on-month). The production profit of ethylene-based EG was -$79/ton (down $3/ton month-on-month), and the production profit of coal-based syngas EG was 17 yuan/ton (down 20 yuan/ton month-on-month). The inventory of MEG at the main ports in East China was 54.5 tons (down 7.7 tons month-on-month) according to CCF data on Mondays and 50.6 tons (down 3.1 tons month-on-month) according to Longzhong data on Thursdays. The actual arrival at the main ports last week was 6.7 tons, with low arrivals and significant inventory reduction. This week, the planned arrival at the main ports in East China is 15 tons, and inventory may rise again [1]. - **Supply - Demand Logic**: Domestically, the supply is gradually recovering, and the short - term supply - demand structure shows a benign inventory reduction, but the circulating spot will be supplemented after the cancellation of warehouse receipts. Overseas, recent restarts of overseas plants indicate a loose supply, with concentrated arrivals in early July. The demand is currently strong, but several major bottle - chip manufacturers plan to conduct maintenance in early July, so the demand is expected to be weak [2]. - **Strategy**: The unilateral strategy is neutral. With increasing supply and decreasing demand, it shows a short - term weak performance, but the downside is limited. There are no cross - period or cross - variety strategies [3]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Price and Basis - The closing price of the main EG contract was 4,267 yuan/ton, and the spot price of EG in the East China market was 4,335 yuan/ton. The spot basis of EG in East China (based on the 2509 contract) was 64 yuan/ton [1]. 3.2 Production Profit and Operating Rate - The production profit of ethylene - based EG was -$79/ton, and the production profit of coal - based syngas EG was 17 yuan/ton [1]. 3.3 International Price Difference - No specific content about international price difference is provided in the text. 3.4 Downstream Sales, Production, and Operating Rate - No specific content about downstream sales, production, and operating rate is provided in the text. 3.5 Inventory Data - The inventory of MEG at the main ports in East China was 54.5 tons according to CCF data on Mondays and 50.6 tons according to Longzhong data on Thursdays. The actual arrival at the main ports last week was 6.7 tons, and the planned arrival this week is 15 tons [1].
大越期货PTA、MEG早报-20250701
Da Yue Qi Huo· 2025-07-01 02:21
交易咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】1091号 PTA&MEG早报-2025年7月1日 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 投资咨询资格证号:Z0015557 联系方式:0575-85226759 重要提示:本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务,其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用,不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户;市场有风险,投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 前日回顾 2 每日提示 3 4 今日关注 基本面数据 5 PTA 每日观点 PTA: 6、预期:周内伊以停火后,油价迅速回吐地缘溢价后重回震荡,上游成本支撑塌陷,PTA期货盘面跟随走低,不过供需结构上, PTA自身并未累库,预计短期内PTA现货价格仍跟随成本端震荡调整,现货基差区间波动。关注7月聚酯降负情况。 1、基本面:昨日PTA期货区间波动,现货市场商谈一般,现货基差快速走弱,贸易商商谈为主。本周下周货主流在09+210~240 成交,个别偏高,价格商谈区间在5000~5060附近。7月中下在09+210有成交。今日主流现货基差在09+224。中性 2、基差:现货5050,09合约基差252,盘面贴水 偏 ...
玻璃纯碱数据日报-20250626
Guo Mao Qi Huo· 2025-06-26 03:30
1、25日玻璃纯碱震荡。 2、随着价格不断下探,低位价格弹性较大。 3、玻璃供需双弱,现货价格不佳,产销偏弱,库存累积加快,预期再度悲 观,整体看供需或延续偏弱,成本支撑不足,价格承压震荡。 4、纯碱方面,检修结束后供应快速恢复,直接需求存走弱预期,供需过剩 行情分析 担忧再起。浮法和光伏玻璃利润不佳,负反馈加剧,且成本支撑弱化, 合席 | 。 短期价格或趋于震荡,以期权买权参与 交易策略 缅甸生仔 00000 200 8000 6000 作 终 元 50 2000 = 2024 = 2025 本报告中的信息均源于公开可获得的资料,国贸期货力求准确可靠,但不对上述信息的准确性及完整性 任何保证。本报告不构成个人投资建议,也未针对个别投资者特殊的投资目标、财务状况或需要,投资者 需自行判断本报告中的任何意见 或建议是否符合其特定状况,据此投资,责任自负。本报告仅向特定客 推送,未经国贸期货授权许可,任何引用、转载以及向第三方传播的行为均构成对国贸期货的侵权,我 将视情况追究法律责任。期市有风险,入市需谨慎。〔 ITC国贸期货 TER 500FF 国贸期货有限公i 流的衍生品综合服务商 入 期 市 市 官 方 网 ...
苯乙烯日报:纯苯进一步累库-20250624
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-06-24 03:19
苯乙烯日报 | 2025-06-24 苯乙烯方面:苯乙烯主力基差473元/吨(+22元/吨);苯乙烯非一体化生产利润273元/吨(-14元/吨),预期逐步压 缩。苯乙烯华东港口库存85000吨(+18700吨),苯乙烯华东商业库存66300吨(+21300吨),处于库存回建阶段。 苯乙烯开工率79.0%(+5.2%)。 下游硬胶方面:EPS生产利润167元/吨(+20元/吨),PS生产利润-483元/吨(+20元/吨),ABS生产利润93元/吨(+110 元/吨)。EPS开工率53.63%(-1.84%),PS开工率58.70%(+0.40%),ABS开工率63.97%(-0.11%),下游开工季节 性低位。 市场分析 主要驱动仍在于最上游成本端的原油价格波动,美国打击伊朗后,油价却有所回落,反映市场认为最激烈的预期 已兑现。纯苯方面,国产开工率已上升至高位,下游CPL及苯胺开工仍偏低,拖累纯苯需求,港口方面,后续韩国 发往中国压力仍大,纯苯港口库存本周初再度快速上升,压制纯苯加工费。苯乙烯方面,港口库存逐步进入回升 周期,且国内苯乙烯开工率进一步上升至近3年高位,工厂库存亦是累库周期。下游方面,PS及ABS ...
原油冲高回落,PX依然偏紧
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-06-24 03:19
化工日报 | 2025-06-24 原油冲高回落,PX依然偏紧 PX方面,上上个交易日PXN250美元/吨(环比变动-11.63美元/吨)。近期中东地缘冲突导致伊朗、以色列PX装置停 车,沙特Rabigh芳烃装置重启延后, 海外PX开工下滑相对明显。月底国内几套PX装置计划检修,目前现货市场货 源仍较紧张,PX浮动价依然偏强,关注后续PTA检修和新装置投产进展,PX供需偏紧能否延续。 TA方面,TA主力合约现货基差 264 元/吨(环比变动-5元/吨),PTA现货加工费383元/吨(环比变动-30元/吨),主力 合约盘面加工费360元/吨(环比变动+18元/吨),伴随大量仓单注销主流供应商排货,现货市场流通性偏紧的情况 有所缓解,PTA自身基本面支撑有所转弱,关注伊以局势对成本的影响和需求支撑。 需求方面,聚酯开工率92.0%(环比+1.1%),内外销进入淡季,终端订单和开工呈现下滑趋势,但聚酯表现相对良 性,负荷表现坚挺,原料价格上涨后集中补库下长丝库存下降,后续价格高位震荡库存压力可能提升,继续关注 聚酯库存变化,短期长丝负荷预计还能维持;短纤库存不高,虽然也有减产消息,但实际执行力度存疑;瓶片方 面,万 ...