Report Industry Investment Rating - Unmentioned in the provided content Core Viewpoints - The decline in coking coal prices led to a callback in EG prices. The EG main contract closed at 4,436 yuan/ton, down 109 yuan/ton (-2.40%) from the previous trading day, and the EG spot price in the East China market was 4,499 yuan/ton, down 80 yuan/ton (-1.75%) [1]. - The production profit of ethylene - made EG was -$34/ton (up $4/ton), and that of coal - made syngas EG was 167 yuan/ton (up 44 yuan/ton) [1]. - MEG inventory in the main ports of East China decreased slightly last week. The actual arrivals at the main ports were 108,000 tons, lower than the planned value. This week, the planned arrivals are 156,000 tons [1]. - On the supply side, domestic supply is at a relatively high level, and overseas supply is expected to increase. On the demand side, the polyester load is expected to remain strong in the short term, but there is a risk of weakening fundamentals in August due to high supply [2]. - The strategy for single - side trading is neutral, focusing on macro - sentiment changes, especially the Sino - US tariff policy changes during July 27 - 30 and the Fed's interest - rate meeting [3]. Summary by Directory Price and Basis - The EG main contract closed at 4,436 yuan/ton, down 109 yuan/ton (-2.40%) from the previous trading day, and the EG spot price in the East China market was 4,499 yuan/ton, down 80 yuan/ton (-1.75%). The EG spot basis in East China (based on the 2509 contract) was 58 yuan/ton, up 8 yuan/ton [1]. Production Profit and Operating Rate - The production profit of ethylene - made EG was -$34/ton (up $4/ton), and that of coal - made syngas EG was 167 yuan/ton (up 44 yuan/ton) [1]. International Spread - Unmentioned in the text about specific data, only a figure "Figure 9: Ethylene glycol international spread: US FOB - China CFR" is provided [19] Downstream Sales, Production and Operating Rate - Due to the price - increase effect, the terminal conducted centralized restocking, significantly alleviating the filament inventory pressure. The polyester load is expected to remain strong in the short term, and attention should be paid to the order connection in August [2]. Inventory Data - According to CCF data, MEG inventory in the main ports of East China was 521,000 tons (down 12,000 tons); according to Longzhong data, it was 475,000 tons (down 19,000 tons). The actual arrivals at the main ports last week were 108,000 tons, lower than the planned value, and the weekly port inventory decreased slightly. This week, the planned arrivals at the main ports in East China are 156,000 tons [1].

2025 年 7 月 29 日 LPG：化工需求高位，价格相对抗跌 丙烯：供需短期偏弱 陈鑫超 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020238 chenxinchao@gtht.com | | | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨幅 | 夜盘收盘价 | 夜盘涨幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | PG2509 | 3,992 | -1.36% | 4,008 | 0.40% | | 期货价格 | PG2510 | 4,396 | -1.61% | 4,426 | 0.68% | | | PL2601 | 6,570 | -1.31% | 6,566 | -0.06% | | | PL2602 | 6,644 | -0.91% | 6,636 | -0.12% | | | | 昨日成交 | 较前日变动 | 昨日持仓 | 较前日变动 | | | PG2509 | 106,659 | -3904 | 92,218 | 4307 | | 持仓&成交 | PG2510 | 27,555 | -1370 | 62,169 | 3269 | | | PL2601 | 6,292 | -337 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Core Viewpoints - The overall atmosphere of bulk chemicals has weakened, and the PTA market has risen and then fallen. The downstream procurement intention is not high. The supply of PTA is sufficient, and it will move in a volatile manner with cost as the dominant factor [2]. - The polyester bottle - chip market has a relatively abundant supply, and the downstream terminal purchases according to rigid demand, with the market negotiation atmosphere improving [2]. - After the short - term emotional release, PX, PTA, and PR are expected to operate in a volatile manner [2]. Summary by Related Catalogs Price Information - On July 28, 2025, the futures settlement price of WTI crude oil was $66.71 per barrel, up 2.38% from the previous value; Brent crude oil was $70.04 per barrel, up 2.34% [1]. - The spot price of naphtha CFR Japan was $578.50 per ton, down 0.34%; the spot price of xylene (isomeric grade) FOB South Korea was $708.00 per ton, down 1.73% [1]. - The spot price of PX CFR China Main Port was $851.00 per ton, down 2.52%; the CZCE TA main - contract closing price was 4812 yuan per ton, down 2.51% [1]. - The CCFEI price index of PTA outer - market was $651.00 per ton on July 25, up 1.88%; the CZCE PX main - contract closing price was 6890 yuan per ton on July 28, down 2.44% [1]. - The CZCE PR main - contract closing price was 6000 yuan per ton on July 28, down 2.12%; the market price of polyester bottle - chips in the East China market was 6010 yuan per ton, down 1.15% [1]. Production and Sales Information - On July 28, 2025, the operating rate of the PX in the polyester industry chain was 77.29%, unchanged; the PTA factory load rate was 80.59%, unchanged [1]. - The polyester factory load rate was 86.66%, down 0.35%; the bottle - chip factory load rate was 71.93%, unchanged [1]. - The polyester filament sales rate was 29.00%, unchanged; the polyester staple fiber sales rate was 48.00%, down 30.00%; the polyester chip sales rate was 83.00%, down 47.00% [1]. Device Information - Dongying United's 2.5 - million - ton PTA device was under maintenance from June 28 for 40 - 45 days; Yisheng Hainan's 2 - million - ton PTA device is expected to undergo technical transformation for 3 months starting from August 1 [2]. Market News - The OPEC+ maintains the production - increase plan, and the impact of the production increase is gradually emerging. Although the peak demand season and the improvement of the macro - sentiment provide support, the oil price shows signs of weakness [2]. - PTA will have new device launches in the third quarter, which is mismatched with PX in time. The current PX inventory is at a historical low, with relatively strong bottom support [2]. - It is currently the off - season for polyester consumption. After the significant decline in PTA processing fees, there is a strong expectation of a decline in downstream operating rates [2]. - The domestic PX device operates stably, the new production capacity on the demand side has not produced stably, and the game atmosphere in the market has heated up [2]. - The polyester factory actually carried out maintenance in July, and the operating rate decreased significantly compared with June. The macro - impact on the polyester industry chain has weakened, and it has returned to fundamental - driven, with the supply - demand expectation weakening and prices falling across the board [2].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The overall atmosphere of bulk chemical products is strong, and the PTA market has risen. However, the spot market basis has weakened due to the PTA main supplier's shipments and the weakening of the quoted basis. The PTA processing fee has entered a low - range, and new device production expectations on the supply side and the off - season on the demand side make it difficult for unplanned device overhauls to boost prices. The polyester industry chain is driven by fundamentals, with weakening supply - demand expectations leading to a full - line price decline. PTA will move in a volatile manner, with cost being the dominant factor [2]. - In the short term, after the release of emotions, the market will generally follow cost fluctuations. It is expected that PX, PTA, and PR will operate in a volatile manner [2]. Summary by Related Catalogs Price Information - **Upstream**: On July 25, 2025, the futures settlement price of WTI crude oil was $65.16 per barrel, down 1.32% from the previous value; the futures settlement price of Brent crude oil was $68.44 per barrel, down 1.07%; the spot price of naphtha (CFR Japan) was $580.50 per ton, up 0.76%; the spot price of xylene (isomeric grade, FOB Korea) was $720.50 per ton, up 0.70% [1]. - **PTA**: On July 25, 2025, the CZCE TA main - contract closing price was 4,936 yuan per ton, up 1.77% from the previous value; the settlement price was 4,902 yuan per ton, up 1.83%. The spot price of PTA in the domestic market was 4,894 yuan per ton, up 1.66% [1]. - **PX**: On July 25, 2025, the CZCE PX main - contract closing price was 7,062 yuan per ton, up 1.52% from the previous value; the settlement price was 7,022 yuan per ton, up 1.74%. The spot price of p - xylene in the domestic market was 6,840 yuan per ton, up 1.76% [1]. - **PR**: On July 25, 2025, the CZCE PR main - contract closing price was 6,130 yuan per ton, up 1.46% from the previous value; the settlement price was 6,088 yuan per ton, up 1.16%. The market price of polyester bottle - chips in the East China market was 6,080 yuan per ton, up 1.25% [1]. - **Downstream**: On July 25, 2025, the CCFEI price index of polyester staple fiber was 6,600 yuan per ton, up 0.23% from the previous value; the CCFEI price index of polyester chips was 5,950 yuan per ton, up 1.02% [2]. Supply - related Information - **Device Information**: The 2.5 - million - ton PTA device of Dongying United was under maintenance from June 28 for 40 - 45 days. The 2 - million - ton PTA device of Yisheng Hainan is expected to undergo technical transformation for 3 months starting from August 1 [2]. - **Inventory and Market Situation**: Currently, PX inventory is at a historical low, and the domestic PX is in a destocking cycle. PTA will have new device production in the third quarter, which is misaligned with PX in terms of time [2]. Demand - related Information - **Industry Operating Rate**: On July 25, 2025, the operating rate of the PX in the polyester industry chain was 77.29%, unchanged from the previous value; the PTA industry chain load rate of PTA factories was 80.59%, unchanged; the load rate of polyester factories was 87.01%, unchanged [1]. - **Sales Rate**: On July 25, 2025, the sales rate of polyester filament was 29%, down 15 percentage points from the previous value; the sales rate of polyester staple fiber was 78%, up 10 percentage points; the sales rate of polyester chips was 130%, up 44 percentage points [1]. Market Analysis and Strategy - **PX**: This week, the PX price rose after a stalemate, with the absolute price on Friday up 4.2% to $874 per ton CFR compared to the previous period. The weekly average price rebounded slightly, up 1.2% to $851 per ton CFR. Whether the PX profit can continue to rise depends on more unexpected factors. Currently, due to the off - season of polyester consumption and the significant decline in PTA processing fees, there is a strong expectation of a decline in downstream operating rates [2]. - **PTA**: In the third quarter, PTA will have new device production, and the current PTA processing fee is in a low - range. The polyester factories actually carried out maintenance in July, and the operating rate decreased significantly compared to June. Attention should be paid to whether the rumors of several PTA device overhauls in early August will be realized [2]. - **Trading Strategy**: Affected by the anti - involution trend, bulk commodities are strong. The TA2509 contract closed at 4,936 yuan per ton (up 2.53%), with an intraday trading volume of 1.2 million lots; the PX2509 contract closed at 7,062 yuan per ton (up 2.32%), with an intraday trading volume of 190,000 lots; the PR2509 contract closed at 6,130 yuan per ton (up 1.86%), with an intraday trading volume of 62,600 lots. It is expected that PX, PTA, and PR will operate in a volatile manner [2].

2025 年 7 月 28 日 LPG：化工需求高位，价格相对抗跌 丙烯：供需短期偏弱 陈鑫超 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020238 chenxinchao@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 LPG 基本面数据 | | | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨幅 | 夜盘收盘价 | 夜盘涨幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | PG2509 | 4,047 | 0.60% | 3,961 | -2.13% | | 期货价格 | PG2510 | 4,468 | 0.27% | 4,382 | -1.92% | | | PL2601 | 6,657 | 0.85% | 6,575 | -1.23% | | | PL2602 | 6,705 | 0.25% | 6,641 | -0.95% | | | | 昨日成交 | 较前日变动 | 昨日持仓 | 较前日变动 | | | PG2509 | 110,563 | 10383 | 87,911 | -611 | | 持仓&成交 | PG2510 | 28,925 | 5218 | 58,900 | 4186 | | | PL2601 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral; - Inter - period: PL01 - 05 reverse spread; - Inter - variety: Long PL2601 and short PP2509 [4] 2. Core Viewpoints - Macro policies such as anti - involution and elimination of backward production capacity continue to boost the propylene and polyolefin markets. The elimination of backward production capacity in the propylene industry is expected to shift the domestic propylene market from an oversupply to a tight - balance situation. However, the current overall propylene operating rate is at a seasonally low level, and downstream demand has limited driving force. For polyolefins, although macro policies boost the market, the cost - side support is weak, and downstream demand remains weak during the seasonal off - season [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Propylene 3.1.1 Propylene Basis Structure - It includes the market prices of propylene in East China and Shandong [10][12] 3.1.2 Propylene Production Profit and Operating Rate - Involves the difference between propylene CFR in China and naphtha CFR in Japan, propylene capacity utilization rate, PDH production gross profit and capacity utilization rate, MTO production gross profit, and methanol - to - olefin capacity utilization rate [13][18][22] 3.1.3 Propylene Import and Export Profit - Covers propylene naphtha cracking production gross profit, crude oil refinery capacity utilization rate, and the differences between FOB in South Korea, CFR in Japan, and CFR in Southeast Asia and China CFR, as well as propylene import profit [25][28][33] 3.1.4 Propylene Downstream Profit and Operating Rate - Includes the production profit and operating rate of PP powder, propylene oxide, n - butanol, octanol, acrylic acid, acrylonitrile, and phenol - acetone [35][40][42] 3.1.5 Propylene Inventory - Comprises propylene factory inventory and PP powder factory inventory [59][61] 3.2 Polyolefins 3.2.1 Polyolefin Basis Structure - Involves the trends of plastic and polypropylene futures main contracts, and the basis between LL in East China and the main contract, and PP in East China and the main contract [63][64][70] 3.2.2 Polyolefin Production Profit and Operating Rate - Covers LL production profit from crude oil, PE operating rate, PE weekly output, PE maintenance loss, PP production profit from crude oil and PDH, PP operating rate, PP weekly output, PP maintenance loss, and PDH - made PP capacity utilization rate [71][72][77] 3.2.3 Polyolefin Non - Standard Price Difference - Includes the price differences between HD injection molding, HD blow molding, HD film, LD in East China and LL, and the price differences between PP low - melt copolymer and PP homopolymer injection molding and PP drawing in East China [84][91][92] 3.2.4 Polyolefin Import and Export Profit - Involves LL import profit, the differences between FOB in the US Gulf, CFR in Southeast Asia, FD in Europe and China CFR, PP import and export profit, and the differences between FOB in the US Gulf, CFR in Southeast Asia, FOB in Northwest Europe of PP homopolymer injection molding and China CFR [93][97][109] 3.2.5 Polyolefin Downstream Operating Rate and Profit - Includes the operating rates of PE downstream agricultural film, packaging film, and PP downstream woven bags, BOPP film, injection molding, and the production gross profits of PP downstream woven bags and BOPP film [117][120][127] 3.2.6 Polyolefin Inventory - Comprises the inventories of PE and PP in oil - based enterprises, coal - chemical enterprises, traders, and ports [133][134][136]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - Recently, terminal customers have been actively replenishing their stocks, leading to a significant increase in the sales volume of filament yarns. However, the macro - sentiment has declined, and attention should be paid to macro - level changes [1] - The cost side shows that crude oil maintains a strong current situation but a weak outlook. The PX market lacks significant positive factors, and the PXN spread is expected to fluctuate after compression. The PTA fundamentals are weak, and attention should be paid to potential maintenance due to low processing fees. The polyester demand is in the off - season, with terminal orders and operations declining rapidly, and filament yarn inventories are accumulating [2][3] - In terms of trading strategies, a neutral stance is recommended for PX, PTA, PF, and PR, with a slight upward bias in the short - term under the influence of macro - sentiment. Consider shorting the PTA processing fee when prices are high [4] Summary by Directory Price and Basis - The report presents figures on the TA main contract, basis, and inter - period spreads; PX main contract trends, basis, and inter - period spreads; PTA East China spot basis; and short - fiber basis [8][9][11] Upstream Profits and Spreads - Figures include PX processing fee (PXN), PTA spot processing fee, South Korean xylene isomerization profit, and South Korean STDP selective disproportionation profit [17][20] International Spreads and Import - Export Profits - It shows figures on the toluene US - Asia spread, toluene South Korea FOB - Japan naphtha CFR spread, and PTA export profit [25][27] Upstream PX and PTA Operations - Figures cover the operating rates of PTA in China, South Korea, and Taiwan, as well as the operating rates of PX in China and Asia [28][31][33] Social Inventories and Warehouse Receipts - It includes figures on PTA weekly social inventory, PX monthly social inventory, PTA total warehouse receipts + forecasts, PTA warehouse receipt inventory, PX warehouse receipt inventory, and PF warehouse receipt inventory [38][41][42] Downstream Polyester Load - Figures show filament yarn sales, short - fiber sales, polyester load, direct - spun filament yarn load, polyester staple fiber load, polyester bottle - chip load, filament yarn factory inventory days, and the operating rates of Jiangsu and Zhejiang weaving, texturing, and dyeing industries [50][52][63] Detailed PF Data - It includes figures on polyester staple fiber load, factory equity inventory days, 1.4D physical and equity inventories, recycled cotton - type staple fiber load, raw - recycled price spread, pure polyester yarn operating rate, production profit, polyester - cotton yarn operating rate, and processing fee [74][83][87] Detailed PR Fundamental Data - Figures cover polyester bottle - chip load, bottle - chip factory inventory days, bottle - chip spot processing fee, export processing fee, export profit, price difference between East China water bottle chips and recycled 3A - grade white bottle chips, and bottle - chip inter - month spreads [92][94][101]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The recent theme in the chemical sector is the rectification expectation of plants in operation for over 20 years. The capacity of such plants in pure benzene and styrene production accounts for 16% and 6%, respectively. The BZ market has declined after reaching a peak, with the high futures premium starting to narrow. There is still pressure on pure benzene port inventory, and while the short - term downstream demand for BZ is okay, the high - start CPL and styrene plants' operations are starting to decline. On the supply side, the pressure of South Korean exports to China remains, and domestic production is still at a high level, so the pure benzene processing fee continues to consolidate weakly. For styrene, port inventory is rising rapidly. Although domestic EB production has declined slightly, it is still at a relatively high level. In terms of demand, EPS production has increased, but the inventory pressure of the three major hard plastics persists, which may drag down future production [3] Summary According to the Directory 1. Pure Benzene and EB's Basis Structure and Inter - Period Spreads - Pure benzene: The pure benzene main contract basis is - 206 yuan/ton (+52), and the spread between East China pure benzene spot and M2 is - 65 yuan/ton (- 10 yuan/ton). The spread between the near - month BZ paper cargo and the distant BZ2603 futures is recommended to be reverse - arbitraged when the price is high [1][4] - Styrene: The styrene main contract basis is 53 yuan/ton (+49 yuan/ton). An EB2509 - 2510 inter - period reverse arbitrage is recommended [1][4] 2. Production Profits and Domestic - Foreign Spreads of Pure Benzene and Styrene - Pure benzene: The CFR China processing fee for pure benzene is 185 dollars/ton (+11 dollars/ton), and the FOB South Korea processing fee is 169 dollars/ton (+11 dollars/ton). The price difference between the US and South Korea is 117.9 dollars/ton (- 7.0 dollars/ton). The production profits of downstream products such as caprolactam, phenol - acetone, aniline, and adipic acid have all changed to varying degrees [1] - Styrene: The non - integrated production profit of styrene is - 57 yuan/ton (- 12 yuan/ton), and it is expected to gradually shrink. The EB - BZ spread is recommended to be narrowed when the price is high [1][4] 3. Inventory and Operating Rates of Pure Benzene and Styrene - Pure benzene: The port inventory is 17.10 tons (+0.70 tons). There is still pressure on inventory during the same period. Although downstream demand is okay in the short term, the operating rates of CPL and styrene are starting to decline [1][3] - Styrene: The East China port inventory is 150,700 tons (+12,200 tons), and the East China commercial inventory is 56,200 tons (+11,200 tons), which is in the inventory rebuilding stage. The domestic EB operating rate has declined slightly but is still at a relatively high level [1][3] 4. Operating Rates and Production Profits of Styrene's Downstream - EPS: The production profit is 175 yuan/ton (+35 yuan/ton), and the operating rate is 53.18% (+2.12%) - PS: The production profit is - 76 yuan/ton (+35 yuan/ton), and the operating rate is 50.60% (- 0.50%) - ABS: The production profit is 225 yuan/ton (- 69 yuan/ton), and the operating rate is 65.90% (+0.90%). The downstream operating rate is at a seasonal low, and the inventory pressure of the three major hard plastics persists, which may drag down future operating rates [2][3] 5. Operating Rates and Production Profits of Pure Benzene's Downstream - Caprolactam: The production profit is - 1890 yuan/ton (+30), and the operating rate is 91.72% (- 4.00%) - Phenol - acetone: The production profit is - 693 yuan/ton (+0), and the operating rate is 81.00% (+3.00%) - Aniline: The production profit is - 97 yuan/ton (+74), and the operating rate is 75.86% (+4.96%) - Adipic acid: The production profit is - 1491 yuan/ton (+52), and the operating rate is 64.80% (- 0.90%) [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The overall trend of the bulk chemical market has risen and then fallen, with the PTA market showing a narrow - range increase. PTA supply is sufficient, and the spot basis fluctuates within a limited range. The PTA processing fee is in a low - level range, and it's difficult to boost prices due to new device production expectations on the supply side and lackluster demand in the off - season. The polyester industry chain is driven by fundamentals, with weak supply - demand expectations leading to a full - line price decline. It is expected that PX, PTA, and PR will operate in a volatile manner [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Price Information - **Crude Oil**: On July 23, 2025, the futures settlement price of WTI crude oil was $65.25 per barrel, down 0.09% from the previous value; the futures settlement price of Brent crude oil was $68.51 per barrel, down 0.12% [1] - **Upstream Products**: The spot price of naphtha CFR Japan increased by 0.18% to $567.38 per ton; the spot price of xylene (isomeric grade) FOB South Korea decreased by 1.47% to $705 per ton; the spot price of PX CFR China Main Port decreased by 0.16% to $842 per ton [1] - **PTA**: The closing price of the CZCE TA main contract decreased by 0.21% to 4,784 yuan per ton, while the settlement price increased by 0.75% to 4,808 yuan per ton. The spot price of domestic PTA increased by 0.77% to 4,812 yuan per ton [1] - **PX**: The closing price of the CZCE PX main contract decreased by 0.38% to 6,860 yuan per ton, and the settlement price increased by 0.55% to 6,890 yuan per ton. The domestic spot price of PX remained unchanged at 6,737 yuan per ton [1] - **PR**: The closing price of the CZCE PR main contract decreased by 0.17% to 5,986 yuan per ton, and the settlement price increased by 0.54% to 6,012 yuan per ton. The market price of polyester bottle chips in the East China market increased by 0.33% to 6,010 yuan per ton [1] - **Downstream Products**: The CCFEI price index of polyester staple fiber increased by 0.30% to 6,600 yuan per ton; the CCFEI price index of polyester chips increased by 0.68% to 5,890 yuan per ton [2] Operating Conditions - The operating rates of PX, PTA factories, polyester factories, bottle chip factories, and Jiangsu - Zhejiang looms in the polyester industry chain remained unchanged on July 23, 2025 [1] - The sales - to - production ratio of polyester filament decreased by 21 percentage points to 84%; the sales - to - production ratio of polyester staple fiber increased by 7 percentage points; the sales - to - production ratio of polyester chips increased by 47 percentage points to 129% [1] Device Information - The 2.5 - million - ton PTA device of Dongying United has been under maintenance from June 28 for 40 - 45 days. The 2 - million - ton PTA device of Yisheng Hainan is expected to undergo technological transformation for 3 months starting from August 1 [2] Important Information - International crude oil: U.S. API inventory data shows that although crude oil inventory has decreased, distillate inventory has unexpectedly increased, indicating that terminal demand has not recovered. Risk - aversion sentiment has increased, and oil prices are generally weak [2] - PX: Currently, PX inventory is at a historical low, with strong bottom support. Whether PX benefits can continue to rise depends on more unexpected factors. The current dull fundamentals have been changed by unexpected situations in reforming devices, but due to the off - season of polyester consumption, there is a strong expectation of a decline in downstream operations after the significant decline in PTA processing fees [2] - PTA: In the third quarter, new PTA devices are still to be put into production, which is misaligned with PX in terms of time. PTA supply is sufficient, and the main suppliers continue to sell goods. The PTA processing fee is in a low - level range, and it's difficult to boost prices due to new device production expectations on the supply side and lackluster demand in the off - season [2] Trading Strategy - It is difficult for PTA to break through the upper pressure level. The TA2509 contract closed at 4,784 yuan per ton (down 0.25%), with an intraday trading volume of 1.17 million lots; the PX price has increased, and the PX2509 contract closed at 6,860 yuan per ton (up 0.12%), with an intraday trading volume of 228,000 lots; PR follows the cost trend, and the 2509 contract closed at 5,986 yuan per ton (up 0.10%), with an intraday trading volume of 70,200 lots. It is expected that PX, PTA, and PR will operate in a volatile manner [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report PTA - PTA装置近期平稳运行，三房巷新装置投产，昨日聚酯产销大幅放量使聚酯工厂库存压力缓解，预计短期内PTA价格跟随成本震荡，基差偏弱运行，需关注下游聚酯负荷波动 [5]。 - 基本面方面，昨日PTA期货震荡收涨，现货市场商谈氛围一般，个别聚酯工厂递盘，现货基差偏弱；基差显示盘面贴水；PTA工厂库存环比持平；盘面20日均线向上且收盘价收于其上；主力持仓净空且空增 [6]。 MEG - 周三乙二醇价格重心高位震荡，市场商谈尚可，日内盘面宽幅调整，现货基差午后适度走强，场内交投氛围良好，主流供应商参与补货；美金方面，外盘重心宽幅整理，成交略僵持 [7]。 - 本周乙二醇主港到货集中，预计下周初显性库存适度回升，关注周内天气变化及船只卸货进度；7 - 8月乙二醇供需转向紧平衡，较此前预期明显好转，在供应端收紧和宏观气氛良好共振下，短期价格重心偏强运行，关注海外装置恢复进度 [7]。 Influencing Factors - 利多因素为近期乙二醇供应端意外频发，沙特几套装置因电力问题停车，涉及产能约170万吨，浙江一大型生产商负荷下降，连云港一裂解装置计划8月检修或致乙二醇重启推后 [8]。 - 利空因素为需求端处于抢出口尾声和内需淡季，终端需求走弱趋势确定 [8]。 Current Logic and Risk Points - 短期商品市场受宏观面影响较大，关注成本端，盘面反弹需关注上方阻力位 [9]。 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Previous Day Review - No specific content provided for the previous day review. 2. Daily Tips PTA - 预期短期内价格跟随成本震荡，基差偏弱运行，关注下游聚酯负荷波动 [5]。 - 基本面、基差、库存、盘面、主力持仓等情况综合分析，基本面中性，基差中性，库存中性，盘面偏多，主力持仓偏空 [6]。 MEG - 短期价格重心偏强运行，关注海外装置恢复进度和周内天气及船只卸货情况 [7]。 - 基本面、基差、库存、盘面、主力持仓等情况综合分析，基本面中性，基差中性，库存偏空，盘面偏多，主力持仓偏空 [7]。 3. Today's Focus - No specific content provided for today's focus. 4. Fundamental Data PTA Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - Shows PTA production capacity, load, output, import, total supply, polyester production, consumption, and other data from January 2024 to December 2025, including year - on - year changes and inventory data [10]. MEG Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - Presents MEG operating rate, production, import, total supply, polyester production, consumption, port inventory, and other data from January 2024 to December 2025, including year - on - year changes and inventory changes [11]. Price - Lists price data of various products such as naphtha, PX, PTA, MEG, polyester fibers, and their corresponding changes, as well as futures prices, basis, and profit data on July 23 and July 22, 2025 [12]. Inventory Analysis - Includes inventory data of PTA, MEG, PET slices, and polyester fibers in different periods from 2021 to 2025 [40][42][49]. Polyester Upstream and Downstream Operating Rates - Displays the operating rates of PTA, PX, MEG, polyester factories, and Jiangsu - Zhejiang looms from 2020 to 2025 [51][53][55][57]. Processing Fees and Profits - Shows PTA processing fees and MEG profits from different production methods, as well as the production profits of polyester fibers from 2022 to 2025 [59][62][64][66][67][68].