Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral [3] - Inter - period: None [3] - Cross - variety: None [3] Core Viewpoints - The EG basis continued to weaken. The spot price of EG in the East China market was 3668 yuan/ton, with a change of +32 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, an increase of +0.88%. The EG East China spot basis was -25 yuan/ton, a decrease of -5 yuan/ton month - on - month. The production profit of ethylene - based EG was -91 US dollars/ton, an increase of +4 US dollars/ton month - on - month, and that of coal - based syngas EG was -1050 yuan/ton, an increase of +26 yuan/ton month - on - month. The inventory of MEG in the main ports of East China was 84.4 tons (CCF data) or 75.5 tons (Longzhong data), showing an increase [1]. - On the supply side, domestic ethylene glycol load decreased from a high level, and the short - term supply pressure was relieved, but high supply would resume in January. Overseas supply returned to neutral, and the increase in port inventory could be moderately alleviated. On the demand side, polyester load remained firm with low inventory, but orders showed a marginal decline [2]. - For investment strategies, a neutral stance was recommended for unilateral trading. There was large production capacity release pressure, and the inventory accumulation pressure was still large from January to February [3]. Summary by Directory Price and Basis - The closing price of the EG main contract was 3758 yuan/ton, a change of +58 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, an increase of +1.57%. The spot price of EG in the East China market was 3668 yuan/ton, a change of +32 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, an increase of +0.88%. The EG East China spot basis was -25 yuan/ton, a decrease of -5 yuan/ton month - on - month [1]. Production Profit and Operating Rate - The production profit of ethylene - based EG was -91 US dollars/ton, an increase of +4 US dollars/ton month - on - month, and that of coal - based syngas EG was -1050 yuan/ton, an increase of +26 yuan/ton month - on - month [1]. International Spread - The report mentioned the international spread of ethylene glycol: US FOB - China CFR, but no specific data was provided [20]. Downstream Sales, Production and Operating Rate - Polyester load remained firm with low inventory, but orders showed a marginal decline. However, no specific data on downstream sales, production and operating rate was given in the provided text [2]. Inventory Data - According to CCF data, the inventory of MEG in the main ports of East China was 84.4 tons, an increase of +2.5 tons month - on - month; according to Longzhong data, it was 75.5 tons, an increase of +3.6 tons month - on - month. The planned arrival volume at the main ports of East China this week was 11.8 tons, and the arrival volume at secondary ports was 3 tons, which was slightly high overall, and the main ports were expected to have a slight inventory accumulation [1].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report suggests a cautious and moderately bullish stance on PX/PTA/PF/PR, with a focus on the 05 contract [4]. Core Viewpoints - Crude oil is weakening, while PX is relatively resilient. The geopolitical situation is mostly bearish, and the PXN is firm due to good expectations for the first half of next year. The 1 - 5 month spread of PX has strengthened, but the rebound space of PXN is limited in the seasonal demand off - season [1]. - For TA, the basis has rebounded, and there is a slight inventory reduction in the short term, but there will be inventory accumulation pressure in January. In the long term, the PTA processing fee is expected to gradually improve after the end of the concentrated production capacity release cycle [2]. - The polyester start - up rate is 91.2% (down 0.6% month - on - month). The weaving load has declined, and the start - up rate is expected to further decline in mid - December. The polyester load is expected to remain stable in the short term but may decline around January [2]. - For PF, the production profit has increased, the factory inventory is decreasing, but the demand from downstream yarn mills is weak, and the willingness to stock up is low [3]. - For PR, the processing fee has increased, the load is stable, the inventory has decreased, and the processing interval is expected to slightly expand [3]. Summary by Directory Price and Basis - Figures show the TA and PX main contract trends, basis, and inter - period spreads, as well as the PTA East China spot basis and short - fiber basis [9][10][13]. Upstream Profits and Spreads - Figures display the PX processing fee (PXN), PTA spot processing fee, South Korean xylene isomerization profit, and South Korean STDP selective disproportionation profit [16][21]. International Spreads and Import - Export Profits - Figures present the toluene US - Asia spread, toluene South Korean FOB - Japanese naphtha CFR spread, and PTA export profit [24][26]. Upstream PX and PTA Start - up - Figures show the PTA and PX loads in China, South Korea, and Taiwan, as well as in Asia [27][30][34]. Social Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - Figures display the PTA weekly social inventory, PX monthly social inventory, PTA and PX warehouse receipt inventories, and PF warehouse receipt inventory [36][38][39]. Downstream Polyester Load - Figures show the long - filament and short - fiber sales, polyester load, direct - spinning long - filament load, polyester bottle - chip load, long - filament factory inventory days, and the start - up rates of Jiangsu and Zhejiang weaving, texturing, and dyeing [47][49][55]. PF Detailed Data - Figures show the polyester staple fiber load, factory equity inventory days, 1.4D physical and equity inventories, pure polyester yarn and polyester - cotton yarn start - up rates, production profits, and processing fees, as well as the factory inventory available days [69][73][78]. PR Fundamental Detailed Data - Figures show the polyester bottle - chip load, bottle - chip factory inventory days, spot and export processing fees, export profit, price difference with recycled bottle - chips, and month - on - month spreads [90][92][98].

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 PTA&MEG早报-2025年12月15日 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 投资咨询资格证号：Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 PTA 每日观点 PTA： 1、基本面：周五，12月货主流在01贴水20附近商谈成交，个别略高在01-15，略低在01-22~25，在价格商谈区间在4590~4635。 下周个别仓单在01-30有成交。今日主流现货基差在01-20。中性 2、基差：现货4610，01合约基差-4，盘面升水 中性 3、库存：PTA工厂库存3.86天，环比减少0.06天 偏多 4、盘面：20日均线向下，收盘价收于20日均线之下 偏空 5、主力持仓：净空 多翻空 偏空 6、预期：近期PTA装置运行平稳，部分聚酯工厂阶段性补货，带动现货基差走强，期货盘面跟随成本端震荡运行，预计短期内 PTA现货价格跟随成本端震荡，现货基差区间波动。关 ...

化工日报 | 2025-12-12 交割预期下PX月差走强 市场要闻与数据 无 市场分析 成本端，Brent油价维持60~65美元/桶运行，聚焦于俄乌和谈进展，此外委内瑞拉局势也传递出不确定性。市场情 绪观望，油价维持震荡拉锯节奏。 PX方面，上上个交易日PXN273美元/吨(环比变动+3.50美元/吨）。PX装置平稳运行。在明年上半年的良好预期下， 周内PXN走扩至286美元/吨。依靠目前宽松的MX供应环境，即使部分工厂重整开工波动，PX负荷依旧能得到有效 维持。聚酯开工支撑下PXN有支撑，但远期预期下估值当前已处于季节性中高位水平。 TA方面，TA主力合约现货基差 -21元/吨 元/吨(环比变动+4元/吨），PTA现货加工费183元/吨（环比变动+14元/吨）， 主力合约盘面加工费274元/吨（环比变动+14元/吨），近端检修计划较多，且印度BIS取消提振PTA出口需求，聚酯 负荷支撑下，PTA小幅去库，基差反弹。中长期集中投放周期结束，PTA加工费预计将逐步改善。 需求方面，聚酯开工率91.8%（环比+0.3%），近期织造负荷有所下滑，11月底后内贸订单开始加速转弱，坯布库存 也开始加速累积，预计12月 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The report provides daily views and analyses on various energy and chemical futures, including trends, market dynamics, and suggestions for each product. It also mentions the trend strength of each futures product, which ranges from -2 (most bearish) to 2 (most bullish) [2]. 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs a. Aromatics and Polyester Chain - **PX**: Unilateral oscillation. PXN continues to expand. Do not chase high in the short - term, go long on dips. 5 - 9 positive spread. Supply is expected to shrink, and there is a certain supply gap under high polyester operation [12]. - **PTA**: Unilateral high - level oscillation. Hold long PX and short PTA in the 05 contract. There may be an opportunity for PTA processing fee expansion if there are certain PX warehouse receipts in the 01 contract [12]. - **MEG**: Price hits a new low, with a weak trend. Go short on the 5 - 9 spread at high levels. Supply is expected to increase while demand decreases in the medium term [13][14]. b. Rubber and Synthetic Rubber - **Rubber**: Oscillating. Market is affected by inventory and supply factors. The increase in Qingdao inventory slows down, and raw materials may stop falling and stabilize [15][18]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: Range - bound. Fundamental pressure exists, but valuation provides support. Raw materials are expected to oscillate [19][22]. c. Asphalt - **Asphalt**: Weak oscillation. Production increases slightly this week, factory inventory rises, and social inventory decreases. The market is affected by supply and demand and cost factors [23][30]. d. Plastics - **LLDPE**: Basis weakens, and upstream selling pressure continues to be released. The market is affected by raw materials, supply, and demand. Pay attention to the supply - demand pressure in the medium term [31][32]. - **PP**: Medium - term trend still faces pressure. Supply is relatively high, and demand peaks have passed. Short - term market should not be chased short, but the downward pressure remains [33][34]. e. Others - **Caustic Soda**: Trend still faces pressure. High production and inventory persist, and demand is weak. Supply pressure is large in winter, and cost support is limited [37][39]. - **Pulp**: Oscillating. The market shows narrow - range consolidation and differentiation between futures and spot. The core contradiction lies in the game between supply contraction expectations and high inventory and weak demand [42][46]. - **Glass**: Flat glass prices are stable. Supply eases slightly, but rigid demand is still weak [47][48]. - **Methanol**: Under pressure. Short - term weak operation, medium - term high supply pressure on the 01 contract. There is a possibility of marginal improvement in the first quarter of 2026 [50][53]. - **Urea**: Weak operation. Warehouse receipts increase significantly. Fundamental drivers are neutral, and there are policy and cost support and pressure [55][57]. - **Styrene**: Short - term oscillation. Pure benzene market oscillates, and styrene supply pressure is not large, with port inventory slightly decreasing [58][59]. - **Soda Ash**: Spot market changes little. Supply is expected to increase, and downstream demand is average [61][62]. - **LPG**: Short - term demand is strong, but medium - and long - term is under pressure. Propylene supply is expected to increase, and upward driving force is limited [64]. - **PVC**: Trend is weak. Supply is high, demand is weak, and short - term should not be chased short. There is a possibility of supply reduction in the future [72]. - **Fuel Oil**: Continues to rebound and may temporarily get out of the weak situation. Low - sulfur fuel oil weakens in the short - term, and the price difference between high - and low - sulfur in the external market is temporarily stable [75]. - **Container Shipping Index (European Line)**: Oscillating. Affected by negotiation and freight factors, the 2602 contract is an oscillating market in the medium term, and the 2604 contract has a relatively high probability of short - selling [87][88]. - **Staple Fiber and Bottle Chip**: Medium - term pressure exists. Short - sell the processing fee at high levels [90][91]. - **Offset Printing Paper**: Wait - and - see. Market prices are stable, demand is weak, and industry operation is at a high level [93][96]. - **Pure Benzene**: Short - term oscillation. Weak current situation but strong future expectations. Inventory pressure is high in December, and supply is expected to contract after January [98][99].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report suggests a cautious and moderately bullish stance on PX/PTA/PF/PR. For the 01 contract, the upside potential may be limited, and it is recommended to focus on the 05 contract in the medium to long term [3]. Core Viewpoints - The market is currently in a state of seasonal weakening in demand and is oscillating. The cost side, with Brent oil prices ranging from $60 - $65 per barrel, is affected by the progress of Russia - Ukraine peace talks and the situation in Venezuela. Market sentiment is wait - and - see, and oil prices are maintaining an oscillating pattern. In the PX market, PXN has expanded to $286 per ton this week, and although some factory reforming operations may fluctuate, PX load can still be effectively maintained. For PTA, with many near - term maintenance plans and increased export demand, there is a slight reduction in inventory and a rebound in the basis. In the medium to long term, after the end of the concentrated capacity release cycle, PTA processing fees are expected to gradually improve. In the demand aspect, the polyester operating rate is 91.8% (up 0.3% month - on - month), but the weaving load has declined, and it is expected that the operating rate will further decline from late December. For PF, the production profit is $193 per ton (down $1 per ton month - on - month), with high load and low inventory. For PR, the bottle - chip spot processing fee is $490 per ton (up $27 per ton month - on - month), and due to the off - season demand and high social inventory, the processing fee is expected to oscillate [1][2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Price and Basis - Relevant figures include the TA main contract, basis, and inter - period spread trends; PX main contract trends, basis, and inter - period spread; PTA East China spot basis; and short - fiber 1.56D*38mm semi - bright natural white basis [7][8][10]. 2. Upstream Profits and Spreads - The figures cover PX processing fee PXN (PX China CFR - naphtha Japan CFR), PTA spot processing fee, South Korean xylene isomerization profit, and South Korean STDP selective disproportionation profit [15][18]. 3. International Spreads and Import - Export Profits - The relevant figures are the toluene US - Asia spread (FOB US Gulf - FOB South Korea), toluene South Korea FOB - Japan naphtha CFR, and PTA export profit [23][25]. 4. Upstream PX and PTA Start - up - Figures show the PTA load in China, South Korea, and Taiwan, as well as the PX load in China and Asia [26][29][30]. 5. Social Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - Relevant figures include PTA weekly social inventory, PX monthly social inventory, PTA total warehouse receipts + forecast volume, PTA warehouse warehouse receipts inventory, PX warehouse receipts inventory, and PF warehouse receipts inventory [34][37][38]. 6. Downstream Polyester Load - Figures cover filament sales, short - fiber sales, polyester load, direct - spun filament load, polyester staple fiber load, polyester bottle - chip load, filament factory inventory days, Jiangsu and Zhejiang loom operating rate, Jiangsu and Zhejiang texturing machine operating rate, Jiangsu and Zhejiang dyeing operating rate, and filament profit [46][48][57]. 7. PF Detailed Data - The figures include polyester staple fiber load, polyester staple fiber factory equity inventory days, 1.4D physical inventory, 1.4D equity inventory, recycled cotton - type staple fiber load, raw - recycled spread, pure polyester yarn operating rate, pure polyester yarn production profit, polyester - cotton yarn operating rate, polyester - cotton yarn processing fee, pure polyester yarn factory inventory available days, and polyester - cotton yarn factory inventory available days [67][71][82]. 8. PR Fundamental Detailed Data - Relevant figures are polyester bottle - chip load, bottle - chip factory bottle - chip inventory days, bottle - chip spot processing fee, bottle - chip export processing fee, bottle - chip export profit, East China water bottle - chip - recycled 3A - grade white bottle - chip, bottle - chip next - month spread, and bottle - chip next - next - month spread [88][94][97].

Report Industry Investment Rating - PX/PTA/PF/PR are cautiously bullish, but the rebound space for the 01 contract may be limited. It is recommended to focus on the 05 contract in the medium to long term [3] Core Viewpoints - The market is fluctuating, and PXN is relatively strong. The overall fundamentals have a bearish impact on oil prices, but market differentiation caused by sanctions still exists, and the impact of geopolitical and macro events on sentiment needs to be considered [1] - The polyester start - up rate is 91.5% (a 0.2% month - on - month increase). Although recent weaving orders have weakened marginally, the short - term risk of a significant decline in polyester load is low, and it is expected to remain around 91% [2] - For PX, with the support of polyester start - up, PXN has support, but the high - level PX load and individual device expansions limit its rebound space. Attention should be paid to the situation of blending into gasoline [1][3] - For TA, recent maintenance is concentrated, demand for exports has increased, and the supply - demand situation has improved. In the medium to long term, as the cycle of concentrated capacity release ends, PTA processing fees are expected to gradually improve [1][3] - For PF, the load is at a high level, factory inventories have decreased to a low level, and the fundamentals provide some support, but demand is weakening marginally [2][3] - For PR, the fundamentals of bottle chips have not changed much. Maintenance continues, but the demand in the off - season is average. The spot processing fees of bottle chips are expected to fluctuate within a range, and attention should be paid to raw material price fluctuations [3] Summary by Directory I. Price and Basis - The report includes figures on TA and PX main contract trends, basis, and inter - period spreads, as well as PTA East China spot basis and short - fiber basis [7][8][10] II. Upstream Profits and Spreads - It covers PX processing fees (PXN), PTA spot processing fees, South Korean xylene isomerization profits, and South Korean STDP selective disproportionation profits [16][19] III. International Spreads and Import - Export Profits - The content includes toluene spreads between the US and Asia, toluene spreads between South Korea FOB and Japanese naphtha CFR, and PTA export profits [24][26] IV. Upstream PX and PTA Start - up - Figures show the start - up rates of PTA in China, South Korea, and Taiwan, as well as the start - up rates of PX in China and Asia [27][30][31] V. Social Inventories and Warehouse Receipts - It presents PTA weekly social inventories, PX monthly social inventories, and various types of warehouse receipt inventories such as PTA and PX [36][39][40] VI. Downstream Polyester Load - The report contains information on filament and short - fiber production and sales, polyester load, and the start - up rates of related downstream industries such as Jiangsu and Zhejiang weaving machines, texturing machines, and printing and dyeing machines [48][50][60] VII. PF Detailed Data - It includes details such as polyester staple fiber load, factory equity inventory days, and the load of recycled cotton - type staple fibers, as well as production and processing data of related yarns [70][82][87] VIII. PR Fundamental Detailed Data - The content involves polyester bottle chip load, bottle chip factory inventory days, spot and export processing fees, and export profits of bottle chips [89][95][99]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating provided in the report. 2. Report's Core View - PTA market is expected to follow the cost - side fluctuations in the short term, with supply reduction and potential restarts of previously - shut - down capacity, and downstream polyester开工 to seasonally weaken [3] - The ethylene glycol market is expected to oscillate at low levels under the expectation of reduced supply and demand, with continuous inventory accumulation in recent weeks [4] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs PTA - **Market Performance**: On December 03, the PTA main futures contract TA2601 dropped 0.46%, and the basis strengthened to - 29 yuan/ton [2] - **Fundamentals**: The market price in East China was 4705 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan/ton from the previous day. The crude oil price in the cost side dropped, and the OPEC+ meeting maintained the decision to suspend production increase in Q1 2026. The PTA capacity utilization rate was 73.81%, and the weekly PTA factory inventory days were 3.78 days, a decrease of 0.03 days from the previous week [3] - **Main Force Movements**: The long - position main force reduced positions [3] - **Expectations**: There has been significant reduction in PTA supply recently, with previously - shut - down capacity gradually restarting. There is a phased de - stocking. The cancellation of export restrictions by India's BIS boosts exports. The downstream polyester开工 is expected to seasonally decline. Attention should be paid to plant restarts under the repair of processing fees [3] MEG (Ethylene Glycol) - **Market Performance**: On December 03, the ethylene glycol main futures contract eg2601 dropped 1.55%, and the basis strengthened to 1 yuan/ton [4] - **Fundamentals**: The market price in East China was 3829 yuan/ton, down 47 yuan/ton from the previous day. The crude oil price in the cost side dropped, and the production profit of coal - based ethylene glycol remained in the red. The weekly inventory at East China's MEG ports totaled 70.8 tons, an increase of 7.5 tons from the previous week [4] - **Main Force Movements**: The short - position main force increased positions [4] - **Expectations**: Ethylene glycol has been continuously accumulating inventory in recent weeks, and the expectation has not changed. Some domestic plants plan to reduce production or conduct maintenance, alleviating the supply - side pressure. A 3.3 - million - ton Iranian plant has recently shut down, with an undetermined restart time. The downstream polyester开工 remains stable but has entered the off - season [4]

| 11/11/2 | > 國授期货 | 软商品日报 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 操作评级 | 2025年12月03日 | | 棉花 | ★☆★ | 曹凯 首席分析师 | | 纸浆 | な女女 | F03095462 Z0017365 | | 白糖 | ☆☆☆ | 黄维 高级分析师 | | 苹果 | な女女 | F03096483 Z0017474 | | 木材 | なな女 | | | 天然橡胶 | ★☆☆ | 胡华轩 高级分析师 | | 20号胶 | ★☆☆ | F0285606 Z0003096 | | 丁二烯橡胶 ★☆☆ | | | | | | 010-58747784 gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | (棉花&棉纱) 今天郑棉小幅下跌，盘中跌幅较大。棉花现货主流销售基差变动不大，总体持稳。虽然今年新锦增产幅度较大,但商业库存并 不高，销售进度偏快，也给盘面带来较强的支撑。目前处于淡季，但需求总体持稳，关注春节前需求能否出现小旺季。市场对 于国内新年度的种植有一定的利多预期，目标价格或有所变化。关注郑棉突破后的走势，短期上涨空间仍偏谨慎。截至11月27 ...

供需宽松格局延续，盘面反弹空间受限 市场要闻与重要数据 丙烯方面：丙烯主力合约收盘价5959元/吨（-6），丙烯华东现货价6015元/吨（+15），丙烯华北现货价6070元/吨（+50）， 丙烯华东基差56元/吨（+21），丙烯华北基差75元/吨（+38）。丙烯开工率74%（+1%），中国丙烯CFR-日本石脑油 CFR178美元/吨（+4），丙烯CFR-1.2丙烷CFR45美元/吨（-5），进口利润-301元/吨（+3），厂内库存48970吨（+3930）。 丙烯下游方面：PP粉开工率42%（-4.20%），生产利润-330元/吨（-50）；环氧丙烷开工率75%（+0%），生产利润136 元/吨（+91）；正丁醇开工率82%（+1%），生产利润-175元/吨（+73）；辛醇开工率81%（+4%），生产利润308元/ 吨（+68）；丙烯酸开工率77%（+4%），生产利润429元/吨（-11）；丙烯腈开工率81%（+1%），生产利润-518元/吨 （-38）；酚酮开工率81%（+2%），生产利润-602元/吨（+0）。 丙烯日报 | 2025-12-03 市场分析 单边：观望；短期成本端支撑增强，盘面偏强震荡，但 ...