今日午后，大盘震荡回调，盘面上，热点较为分散，元件、CPO、乳业、零售等板块涨幅居前，工业金 属、钢铁、煤炭等板块跌幅居前，截至14点17分，国证自由现金流指数下跌2.0%。 广发证券此前研报称，自由现金流是基于现金流的指标，反映企业实际可用的现金，可用于企业现金留 存、分红回购、还债付息等，是衡量企业财务健康和盈利能力的重要指标之一。自由现金流充裕的企业 能分享长期增长红利，相对更易穿越经济周期，在政策支持与市场风格切换的背景下，自由现金流指数 有望成为资产配置的 "压舱石"。 国证自由现金流指数聚焦A股自由现金流水平较高且稳定性较好的上市公司，选样时综合考虑了行业、 流动性、ROE稳定性，以及自由现金流、企业价值、经营活动现金流等指标，选取自由现金流率较高的 前100只股票，并按季度调仓。指数前三大行业为有色金属、汽车、石油石化，均衡配置优质"现金 牛"公司，兼具高质量盈利与强防守属性。 自由现金流ETF易方达（159222）采用ETF中最低一档0.15%/年的管理费率，为投资者在市场波动下提 供了底仓配置的便捷工具。 （文章来源：每日经济新闻） ...

A股市场板块涨跌幅排行 中国经济网北京12月9日讯 今日早盘两市震荡，截至午间收盘，上证指数报3918.83点，跌幅0.13%；深证成指报13341.62点，涨幅0.09%；创业板指报 3224.38点，涨幅1.07%。 | 序号 | 板块 | 涨跌幅(%)▼ | | 总成交量 (万手) ▼ 总成交额 (亿元) ▼ | 浄流入（亿元） ▼ | 上涨家数 | 下跌家 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 1 | 元件 | 2.48 | 1355.05 | 580.34 | 77.90 | ਦੇਤੋ | 6 | | 2 | 通信服务 | 1.34 | 880.17 | 154.47 | 3.03 | 24 | 19 | | ന | 零售 | 1.30 | 2957.46 | 185.43 | -4.58 | 46 | 23 | | ব | 军工电子 | 1.04 | 1953.50 | 352.79 | -18.71 | 40 | 22 | | 5 | 其他电源设备 | 1.02 | 473.20 | 141.01 | 0.13 | 20 | ...

新华财经上海12月8日电（葛佳明）大宗商品表现出较为分化的走势，呈现出"避险资产领涨，工业金属 分化，能源农产品承压"的特征。截至12月8日，伦敦现货金涨超60%，伦敦现货银涨幅超102%领跑大 类资产。新华财经汇总的信息显示，多数分析师均表示，2026年贵金属、能源金属和有色金属有望延续 2025年上涨趋势，农产品和能源的趋势启动仍需等待基本面条件配合。 贵金属：周期性与结构性机会共振 2025年美国关税政策打破全球宏观环境，贵金属资产受益于不确定性环境中的确定性溢价，截至发稿， 今年年内，国际金价累计上涨逾50%、国际银价累计上涨逾70%，领涨大宗商品市场和全球主要大类资 产。 上海市黄浦区黄金珠宝首饰区的足金首饰报价显示，12月8日各品牌平均报价为每克1320元，较1月1月 每克799元涨幅达到65%。 中金公司研究部大宗商品研究负责人、首席分析师郭朝辉表示，过去三年，新兴国家央行加速增持黄金 储备，成为全球黄金投资需求的边际增量来源，为金价提供了结构性上涨支撑。但这一情况在今年发生 了变化，今年贵金属价格的强势突破得益于欧美ETF为代表的周期性需求回归所驱动，市场表现为白银 涨幅反超黄金。 根据世界黄 ...

新华财经上海12月8日电 大宗商品表现出较为分化的走势，呈现出"避险资产领涨，工业金属分化，能 源农产品承压"的特征。截至12月8日，伦敦现货金涨超60%，伦敦现货银涨幅超102%领跑大类资产。 新华财经汇总的信息显示，多数分析师均表示，2026年贵金属、能源金属和有色金属有望延续2025年上 涨趋势，农产品和能源的趋势启动仍需等待基本面条件配合。 贵金属：周期性与结构性机会共振 2025年美国关税政策打破全球宏观环境，贵金属资产受益于不确定性环境中的确定性溢价，截至发稿， 今年年内，国际金价累计上涨逾50%、国际银价累计上涨逾70%，领涨大宗商品市场和全球主要大类资 产。 上海市黄浦区黄金珠宝首饰区的足金首饰报价显示，12月8日各品牌平均报价为每克1320元，较1月1月 每克799元涨幅达到65%。 中金公司研究部大宗商品研究负责人、首席分析师郭朝辉表示，过去三年，新兴国家央行加速增持黄金 储备，成为全球黄金投资需求的边际增量来源，为金价提供了结构性上涨支撑。但这一情况在今年发生 了变化，今年贵金属价格的强势突破得益于欧美ETF为代表的周期性需求回归所驱动，市场表现为白银 涨幅反超黄金。 根据世界黄金协会（ ...

Group 1: Precious Metals - Gold - The weakening of the US dollar credit remains the core logic for gold pricing in 2025, with a notable negative correlation between gold prices and the dollar's share in global foreign exchange reserves [11][12] - The Federal Reserve is expected to continue its rate-cutting cycle into 2026, which may support gold prices, especially with concerns over the independence of monetary policy due to potential changes in leadership [13][15] - The long-term trend of weakening US dollar credit is not expected to change, with the US fiscal deficit projected to reach 6.9% of GDP in 2024, indicating ongoing structural issues in the US fiscal system [16][17] Group 2: Industrial Metals - Supply constraints for copper are expected to intensify, with significant disruptions in overseas copper mining projects leading to a projected decrease in output by over 100,000 tons in 2025 [23][24] - The demand for copper is anticipated to grow significantly due to the rise of AI and data centers, with each MW of installed capacity requiring approximately 27 tons of copper [27][28] - The macroeconomic environment, characterized by a weak dollar and continued rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, is expected to drive copper prices upward [29][31] Group 3: Energy Metals - The supply of lithium and cobalt is expected to improve significantly due to the end of overseas capacity clearances and the implementation of supply constraint policies by major producing countries [33] - The demand for energy metals is projected to benefit from the resilience of battery technologies and the growth of the energy storage sector, leading to a positive supply-demand dynamic [33][34] Group 4: Tin - The supply of tin is tightening due to regulatory changes in Indonesia and ongoing production disruptions in Myanmar, with exports from Indonesia declining by approximately 20% year-on-year [45][46] - The global demand for refined tin is expected to grow, particularly in the electronics sector, driven by high semiconductor sales and the increasing use of tin solder in AI and high-performance computing applications [51]

有色金属 2025 年 12 月 8 日 有色金属周报 现货基本面快速收紧，多金属价格共振上行 强于大市（维持） 行情走势图 -20% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 24-11 25-02 25-05 25-08 沪深300 有色金属 证券分析师 陈潇榕 投资咨询资格编号 S1060523110001 chenxiaorong186@pingan.com.cn 马书蕾 投资咨询资格编号 S1060524070002 mashulei362@pingan.com.cn 核心观点： 贵金属-黄金：降息预期偏强，金价震荡走高。截至 12.5，COMEX 金主力合约达 4227.7 美元/盎司，环比下跌 0.67%。SPDR 黄金 ETF 环比增加 0.5%为 1050 吨。10 月美国制造业 PMI 为 48.7，环比下行 0.4 个百分点。周内金价随降息预期变化呈震荡走势。短期来看，金 价受预期不明朗影响，或仍呈现较强震荡。长期来看，美国债务问题 未解，美元信用走弱的主线逻辑持续，央行购金以及黄金投资需求增 长，贵金属价格重心或继续上移，短期等待短期新的上涨驱动发酵。 工业金属：现货基本面快速收 ...

Core Viewpoints - The report indicates a strengthened expectation for a market style shift towards mid-cap blue chips, with investment opportunities identified in the consumer, cyclical, and manufacturing sectors of mid-cap blue chips [3][13]. Market Analysis - The market continues its rebound, with recent news regarding adjustments to insurance companies' stock investment risk factors and comments from Chairman Wu Qing reinforcing the trend of index fluctuations. This combination of lower risk assessments, a slight increase in risk-free rates, and a convergence of risk preferences towards the middle suggests ongoing investment opportunities in companies with moderate risk profiles [4][14]. - The risk assessment is expected to decline as Chairman Wu's remarks paint a more stable and predictable long-term development outlook, alleviating investor concerns about the long-term prospects of the Chinese capital market. Additionally, the adjustment of risk factors for insurance companies reduces the capital occupation cost for investing in A-shares, encouraging greater equity asset allocation [4][14]. - There is a potential slight increase in risk-free rates as insurance companies may shift more funds from fixed-income assets to stocks, which could support the risk-free rate due to improved expectations for the capital market's efficiency in serving the real economy and new productive forces [4][14]. Industry Comparison - From March 2023 to the present, the market has consistently anticipated a trend towards technology and dividends. The report suggests that the current market style of extreme risk is nearing its end, with future investment opportunities likely to be found in stocks with moderate risk characteristics. The mid-cap blue chip market, which has been dormant for four years, is expected to rise again [6][16]. Industry Allocation - Investment opportunities are identified in mid-cap blue chips across three main lines: 1. The consumer sector, which has been underperforming for years, is approaching a turning point. Many consumer stocks are undervalued, and supply constraints may lead to price increases. Focus areas include mid-sized liquor companies, restaurant supply chains, snacks and beverages, home appliances, hotels, human resources, and beauty care [7][17]. 2. The cyclical sector is experiencing a revaluation driven by technological empowerment and supply constraints. Attention is drawn to new materials and strategic metals (such as antimony and rare earths), industrial metals (copper and aluminum), and traditional commodities like live pigs and rubber, which are seeing improved supply-demand dynamics [7][17]. 3. The manufacturing sector is shifting from "dream narratives" to "reality verification." Investment in this sector should focus on validating orders and revenues rather than speculative stories. Key areas include communications, electronics, power equipment, and machinery, which are expected to show consistent performance [7][17]. Thematic Investments - The report highlights several thematic investment areas: 1. Aerospace satellites: There is market divergence regarding the progress of the satellite industry next year, with expectations for continuous event catalysts related to reusable rockets, which could significantly boost industry development. The pace of industry IPOs is expected to accelerate, with opportunities in satellite constellation networking, satellite bidding, commercial rockets, and terminal applications [8][18]. 2. Upstream price increases: Supply constraints and structural demand growth are expected to provide price elasticity for related products, particularly in the upstream of the new energy industry, chemicals, and non-ferrous metals [8][20]. 3. Semiconductor expansion and domestic substitution: Domestic wafer fabs are anticipated to expand next year, and the capitalization processes of domestic memory chip leaders are progressing. Attention should be given to domestic chip manufacturers, equipment suppliers, and semiconductor materials for domestic substitution [8][20]. 4. Artificial intelligence: Recent market divergences have been digested, and expectations for industry development are likely to continue rising, with a focus on robotics and computing power [8][20].

证券研究报告 | 行业周报 gszqdatemark 2025 12 07 年 月 日 有色金属 美国铜库存持续流入，非美地区低库存引发逼仓风险 贵金属：白银 ETF 持续流入，银价再创新高。本周公布的美国 9 月核心 PCE 同比为 2.8%， 低于前值和预期值 2.9%，一定程度提振市场对 12 月 11 日美联储议息会议押注。后续关注 12 月 11 日美联储议息会议和 12 月 19 日日本央行利率决议，根据 CME fedwatch，目前市 场认为美联储 12 月降息概率为 86.2%，较一周前 86.4%变化不大。另外据路透报道，日本 央行或将把政策利率从 0.5%上调至 0.75%，这将是自今年 1 月以来的首次加息。政府的立 场是"如果日本央行本月想加息，请自行决定"，这被视为默许央行采取行动。自 11 月 12 日以来，SLV 白银 ETF 再次出现大量的净流入状态，截至 12 月 5 日流入量达 837 吨，继续 创年内新高，对白银价格形成重要支撑。建议关注：兴业银锡、盛达资源、万国黄金集团、 中金黄金、紫金矿业、山东黄金、赤峰黄金、银泰黄金、招金矿业等。 工业金属：（1）铜：美国铜库存持 ...

2025 年 12 月 07 日 有色金属 铜铝锡持续上涨，重视贵金属板块 本周有色金属指数周涨幅 5.12%，领跑行业板块。其中，铜铝锡等细 分板块涨幅较高。宏观方面，下周美联储利率决议，市场预期降息 25bp 概率超 80%，特朗普称明年初将宣布美联储主席人选，点名凯 文·哈塞特作为潜在候选人，市场看好 26 年降息周期下的有色普涨 行情。铜因供应紧张叠加伦敦、中国库存偏低，铜价开始拉涨，lme 铜价涨超 11500 美元/吨；锡因供应问题持续扰动，价格涨超 31.5 万 元/吨；铝因低库存叠加国内降息预期，表现强势。下周美联储议息 会议，建议重视贵金属板块的机会，持续看好金银铜铝锡稀土锑锂钴 钽铀等金属，我们预计价格仍有上涨空间。 贵金属 金银：本周 COMEX 金银分别收于 4197.6、58.3 美元/盎司,环比分别 -0.49%、+3.31%。美国 11 月 ADP 就业人数减少 3.2 万人，低于市场 预期，就业市场趋于疲软。特朗普点名凯文·哈塞特作为潜在候选人， 哈塞特表示现在是美联储"谨慎降息"的好时机，市场对 12 月会议 将降息的预期延续。考虑到前期美国政府停摆对就业的负面影响，预 计美 ...

中国经济网北京12月5日讯 A股三大指数今日集体收涨，深证成指、创业板指均涨超1%。截至收盘， 上证指数报3902.81点，涨幅0.70%，成交额7167.42亿元；深证成指报13147.68点，涨幅1.08%，成交额 10090.29亿元；创业板指报3109.30点，涨幅1.36%，成交额4717.40亿元。 A股市场板块涨跌幅排行 | 序号 | 板块 | 涨跌幅(%)▼ | 总成交量（万手） | | 净流入 (亿元) ▼ | 上涨家数 | 下跌家数 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 1 | 偶壓 | 5.36 | 405.95 | 155.03 | 42.37 | 5 | 0 | | 2 | 工业等置 | 3.77 | 4867.48 | 575.23 | 81.62 | 56 | വ | | 3 | 高等屋 | 3.77 | 450.66 | 88.40 | 15.95 | 11 | 0 | | 4 | 金属新材料 | 3.23 | 839.40 | 137.53 | 12.36 | 28 | 3 | | 5 | 牢工电子 | 3 ...