Core Insights - The ISM reported that U.S. manufacturing activity contracted for the sixth consecutive month in August, primarily due to a decline in output, indicating ongoing challenges in the manufacturing sector [1] - However, the new orders index expanded for the first time since the beginning of the year, and the prices index reached its lowest level since February, suggesting a reduction in price volatility caused by tariffs [1] Manufacturing Index Summary - The ISM manufacturing index for August was 48.7, below the expected 49 and previous value of 48, indicating continued contraction as it remains below the neutral level of 50 [1] - The new orders index rose to 51.4, significantly above the expected 48 and previous 47.1, marking the largest monthly increase since early last year [3] - The output index fell to 47.8, dropping 3.6 points and indicating a return to contraction for the first time in three months [3] - The employment index slightly increased to 43.8 but remains one of the weakest levels since the pandemic, below the expected 45 and previous 43.4 [3] - The prices paid index was 63.7, lower than the expected 65 and previous 64.8, indicating a decrease in price pressures [3] Industry Performance - The ISM survey indicated that 10 industries experienced contraction, particularly in paper products, wood, plastics and rubber, and transportation equipment manufacturing, while 7 industries showed expansion [5] - The overall demand remains weak due to tariff uncertainties, with 69% of manufacturing GDP in contraction, although the proportion of industries in severe contraction has slightly decreased [6] Economic Context - Consumer spending in July grew at the fastest pace in four months, driven mainly by expenditures on big-ticket items like automobiles [7] - The Markit manufacturing PMI for August was reported at 53, slightly below the expected 53.3, indicating a robust performance in the manufacturing sector [8] - The chief economist at S&P Global noted that the manufacturing sector showed strong expansion over the summer, with increased hiring to meet new orders and backlogs, suggesting potential economic uplift in Q3 [9]

Core Viewpoint - Canada has decided to eliminate retaliatory tariffs on most U.S. imports, impacting approximately $21 billion in U.S. exports to Canada, including various consumer goods and appliances [3][4]. Group 1: Trade Relations and Tariffs - Canada will maintain tariffs on U.S. automobiles, steel, and aluminum temporarily, indicating a strong stance in these critical sectors [4]. - The decision to adjust negotiation strategies comes amid pressure from domestic, regional, and international factors, including the urgency created by other G7 members reaching trade agreements with the U.S. [7]. - The Canadian economy is facing challenges, with a reported GDP decline of 0.4% in Q2, following a 0.5% growth in Q1, and significant drops in exports of vehicles and machinery due to U.S. tariffs [7][8]. Group 2: Future Trade Frictions - Ongoing discussions focus on five strategic areas: steel, aluminum, automobiles, copper, and softwood lumber, with existing tariffs on non-compliant imports from Canada [11]. - The U.S. has imposed a 50% tariff on semi-finished copper and increased anti-dumping duties on Canadian softwood, raising the total tariff rate to 35.19% [11]. - The uncertainty surrounding negotiations has led to a decrease in foreign investment in Canada, with expectations that the U.S. may push for higher localization ratios and wage alignment in future talks [12].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Views - The report provides trend judgments and fundamental data for various commodities in the black series, including iron ore, rebar, hot - rolled coils, ferrosilicon, silicomanganese, coke, coking coal, and logs. Most commodities are expected to have wide - range fluctuations, while ferrosilicon and silicomanganese are expected to have weak fluctuations due to poor market sentiment [2][4][6][7][10][13][15]. Summary of Each Commodity Iron Ore - **Trend Judgment**: Wide - range fluctuations due to repeated macro - expectations [2][4]. - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of the I2601 contract was 787.5 yuan/ton, down 3 yuan/ton or 0.38%. Imported ore prices generally decreased, with Kafan (65%) down 2 yuan/ton to 891 yuan/ton. The trend strength is 0 [4]. Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coils - **Trend Judgment**: Both are expected to have wide - range fluctuations [2][6][7]. - **Fundamental Data**: For rebar, the RB2510 contract closed at 3,090 yuan/ton, down 26 yuan/ton or 0.83%. For hot - rolled coils, the HC2510 contract closed at 3,355 yuan/ton, down 7 yuan/ton or 0.21%. The trend strength for both is 0 [7]. Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - **Trend Judgment**: Weak fluctuations due to poor market sentiment [2][10]. - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of the ferrosilicon 2511 contract was 5,566 yuan/ton, down 58 yuan/ton. The closing price of the silicomanganese 2511 contract was 5,776 yuan/ton, down 52 yuan/ton. The trend strength for both is 0 [10]. Coke and Coking Coal - **Trend Judgment**: Wide - range fluctuations [2][13]. - **Fundamental Data**: The JM2601 coking coal contract closed at 1,151 yuan/ton, down 24 yuan/ton or 2.0%. The J2601 coke contract closed at 1,643 yuan/ton, down 29.5 yuan/ton or 1.8%. The trend strength for both is 0 [13]. Logs - **Trend Judgment**: Repeated fluctuations [2][15]. - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of the 2509 log contract was 777, down 1.6% from the previous day and 3.3% from the previous week. The trend strength is 0 [16].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that Zhongmu International (01822) reported a decline in revenue and a loss for the six months ending June 30, 2025, indicating challenges in its timber-related business [1] - The company achieved revenue of HKD 144 million, a decrease of 15.56% year-on-year [1] - The loss attributable to shareholders was HKD 929,000, which represents a reduction of 60.65% compared to the previous year [1] - The basic loss per share was HKD 0.13 [1] Group 2 - The decrease in revenue was primarily due to a decline in the turnover of the timber-related business, which fell from approximately HKD 170 million for the six months ending June 30, 2024, to about HKD 133 million during the reporting period [1]

Core Viewpoint - Zhongmu International (01822) reported a revenue of HKD 144 million for the six months ending June 30, 2025, representing a year-on-year decrease of 15.56% [1] - The company recorded a loss attributable to shareholders of HKD 929,000, which is a reduction of 60.65% compared to the previous year [1] - Basic loss per share was HKD 0.13 [1] Revenue Analysis - The decline in revenue is primarily attributed to the timber-related business, which saw a drop in turnover from approximately HKD 170 million for the six months ending June 30, 2024, to about HKD 133 million during the reporting period [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - The report provides daily research and analysis on various commodities in the black series, including iron ore, rebar, hot-rolled coil, ferrosilicon, silicomanganese, coke, coking coal, and logs. The overall view is that most commodities are expected to experience wide - range fluctuations, and logs are expected to fluctuate repeatedly [2]. Summary by Commodity Iron Ore - **Market Outlook**: Due to the repeated macro - expectations, it will experience wide - range fluctuations. The trend strength is 0, indicating a neutral view [2][4]. - **Fundamentals**: The closing price of the I2601 futures contract was 790.5 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan/ton with a 1.93% increase. The position increased by 17,754 hands. Spot prices of imported and domestic ores remained unchanged. Some basis and spread values changed, such as the basis (I2601 to Super Special) decreasing by 15 yuan/ton [4]. - **News**: On August 27, the Shanghai Municipal People's Government Office issued an implementation opinion on accelerating the renovation of urban villages in the city [4]. Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil - **Market Outlook**: Both are expected to experience wide - range fluctuations. The trend strength for both is 0, showing a neutral view [2][6][7]. - **Fundamentals**: For rebar (RB2510), the closing price was 3,129 yuan/ton, up 17 yuan/ton with a 0.55% increase. For hot - rolled coil (HC2510), the closing price was 3,385 yuan/ton, up 28 yuan/ton with a 0.83% increase. There were changes in trading volume, position, and spot prices in different regions [7]. - **News**: On August 28, steel union weekly data showed changes in production, inventory, and apparent demand. In mid - August 2025, key steel enterprises' production and inventory data also had corresponding changes [8][9]. Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - **Market Outlook**: Affected by market information disturbances, they will experience wide - range fluctuations within the day. The trend strength for both is 0, indicating a neutral view [2][10]. - **Fundamentals**: Futures prices of different contracts changed slightly. Spot prices of ferrosilicon in Inner Mongolia remained stable, while the price of silicomanganese in Inner Mongolia decreased by 30 yuan/ton. Various spreads also had corresponding changes [10]. - **News**: Multiple price quotes from the ferroalloy industry were released, and Ningbo Iron and Steel set a bid price for silicomanganese [11][13]. Coke and Coking Coal - **Market Outlook**: Both are expected to experience wide - range fluctuations. The trend strength for both is 0, showing a neutral view [2][14]. - **Fundamentals**: The closing price of the JM2601 coking coal futures contract was 1,175 yuan/ton, up 21 yuan/ton with a 1.8% increase. The closing price of the J2601 coke futures contract was 1,672.5 yuan/ton, up 3 yuan/ton with a 0.2% increase. Spot prices of some varieties remained unchanged, and basis and spread values changed [14]. - **News**: On August 27, the Shanghai Municipal People's Government Office issued an implementation opinion on accelerating the renovation of urban villages in the city [14]. Logs - **Market Outlook**: It will fluctuate repeatedly. The trend strength is 0, indicating a neutral view [2][16]. - **Fundamentals**: Different contract prices, trading volumes, and positions on the log futures market had various changes. Spot prices of most log varieties remained stable [17]. - **News**: On August 27, the Shanghai Municipal People's Government Office issued an implementation opinion on accelerating the renovation of urban villages in the city [19].

Report Overview - Date: August 27, 2025 [1][4][7][11][15][17][20] - Source: Guotai Junan Futures Research Institute Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The market trends of various commodities are mainly characterized by wide - range oscillations or repeated fluctuations. Specifically, iron ore and logs are expected to oscillate repeatedly, while rebar, hot - rolled coils, ferrosilicon, silicomanganese, coke, and coking coal are expected to have wide - range oscillations [2] Summary by Commodity Iron Ore - **Trend**: Oscillate repeatedly [2][6] - **Fundamentals**: The previous day's futures closing price was 776.5 yuan/ton, down 10.5 yuan or 1.33%. The previous day's position was 452,852 lots, down 11,978 lots. Spot prices of imported and domestic ores mostly declined. Some basis and spread values changed slightly [5] - **News**: Shanghai issued the "Six Measures for the Property Market", involving six adjustments such as reducing purchase restrictions, housing provident funds, housing credit, and property tax [5] - **Trend Intensity**: 0 [5] Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coils - **Trend**: Market sentiment is changeable, with wide - range oscillations [2][8] - **Fundamentals**: For RB2510, the previous day's closing price was 3,113 yuan/ton, down 31 yuan or 0.99%. For HC2510, it was 3,367 yuan/ton, down 24 yuan or 0.71%. Trading volume and positions decreased. Spot prices generally declined, and basis and spread values changed [8] - **News**: In mid - August 2025, key steel enterprises' production of crude steel, pig iron, and steel products increased compared to the previous period. Steel inventories increased. Other macro - related data were also reported [8][10] - **Trend Intensity**: 0 for both rebar and hot - rolled coils [10] Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - **Trend**: Wide - range oscillations [2][11] - **Fundamentals**: Futures prices of different contracts declined. Spot prices of ferrosilicon increased, while those of silicomanganese were stable. Basis, near - far month spreads, and cross - variety spreads changed [11] - **News**: Iron alloy price information from different regions and steel mills' procurement prices were reported [12] - **Trend Intensity**: 0 for both ferrosilicon and silicomanganese [14] Coke and Coking Coal - **Trend**: Wide - range oscillations [2][15] - **Fundamentals**: Futures prices of JM2601 and J2601 increased. Trading volume and positions increased. Spot prices of some coking coals changed, and coke prices were stable. Basis and spread values changed significantly [15] - **News**: Shanghai issued the "Six Measures for the Property Market" [15] - **Trend Intensity**: 0 for both coke and coking coal [16] Logs - **Trend**: Oscillate repeatedly [2][17] - **Fundamentals**: Futures closing prices of different contracts showed slight changes, with varying trading volumes and positions. Spot prices of most log varieties were stable, and some basis and spread values changed [18] - **News**: Shanghai issued the "Six Measures for the Property Market" [20] - **Trend Intensity**: 0 [20]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints - The spot price of logs remained stable. In the short term, there is a weak balance between cost support and demand differentiation. In the medium to long term, it is necessary to pay attention to the expected supply contraction in New Zealand, the intensity of real - estate policies, and the implementation rhythm of infrastructure projects. The log futures market showed a volatile pattern this week, and it is recommended to wait and see in trading strategies [5][10] Summary by Directory Part 1: Data Analysis - Log and wood - square spot prices: The prices of various types of logs and wood - squares in different ports were stable, with most showing 0.00% daily and weekly changes. Only the white pine wood - square in Rizhao had a 2.86% daily and weekly increase [3] - Futures data: For log futures contracts, prices, trading volumes, and open interests showed different changes. For example, the closing price of LG2509 decreased by 2.0, the trading volume decreased by 4070, and the open interest decreased by 2361 [3] Part 2: Market Judgment - Spot price: Log spot prices remained stable. From August 18th - 24th, the average daily outbound volume of coniferous logs in 7 provinces and 13 ports in China increased by 1.90% compared to the previous week. From August 25th - 31st, 13 New Zealand log ships were expected to arrive at 12 ports in China, a 63% increase compared to the previous week. The ocean freight for imported coniferous log bulk carriers from New Zealand to China decreased by 16.67% year - on - year [5][8] - Futures price: The November contract fluctuated upwards, with a closing price of 823 yuan/cubic meter, an increase of 3 yuan/cubic meter from the previous day [9] - Logic analysis: In the short term, there is a weak balance between cost support and demand differentiation. In the medium to long term, it is necessary to pay attention to the expected supply contraction in New Zealand, the intensity of real - estate policies, and the implementation rhythm of infrastructure projects [10] - Strategies: For unilateral trading, arbitrage, and options trading, it is recommended to wait and see [10][11][12] Part 3: Related Attachments - The report provides multiple figures related to log prices, including the prices of different types of logs and wood - squares in different ports, import log CFR prices, New Zealand log shipments to China, port log inventory structures, and other data [15][16][20]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Iron ore: The macro risk appetite has not significantly declined, and there is still support [2][5]. - Rebar and hot - rolled coil: Market sentiment is fluctuating, and prices are in wide - range oscillations [2][9][10]. - Ferrosilicon and silicomanganese: Driven by sector sentiment, prices are in wide - range oscillations [2][13]. - Coke and coking coal: Prices are in wide - range oscillations [2][16]. - Logs: Prices are fluctuating repeatedly [2][18]. 3. Summaries According to Related Catalogs Iron Ore - **Fundamental data**: The futures price closed at 787.0 yuan/ton, up 17.0 yuan/ton or 2.21%. The I2601 contract had a position of 464,830 lots, an increase of 12,205 lots. Among spot prices, imported ore prices generally rose by 13 yuan/ton, while domestic ore prices in some areas decreased by 5 yuan/ton. The basis and spreads showed certain changes [6]. - **Macro and industry news**: Shanghai issued the "Six Measures for the Property Market", involving six adjustments such as reducing purchase restrictions, housing provident funds, housing credit, and property tax [6]. - **Trend strength**: The trend strength of iron ore is 1 [6]. Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil - **Fundamental data**: The RB2510 contract of rebar closed at 3,138 yuan/ton, up 22 yuan/ton or 0.71%, with a trading volume of 1,200,313 lots and a position of 1,347,830 lots, a decrease of 63,773 lots. The HC2510 contract of hot - rolled coil closed at 3,389 yuan/ton, up 31 yuan/ton or 0.92%. Spot prices in various regions generally increased. The basis and spreads also changed [10]. - **Macro and industry news**: On August 21, steel output, inventory, and apparent demand data showed different trends. In mid - August 2025, the output and inventory of key steel enterprises changed. The manufacturing supply index in July decreased. The national general public budget revenue from January to July increased slightly [11][12]. - **Trend strength**: The trend strength of rebar is 0, and that of hot - rolled coil is 0 [12]. Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - **Fundamental data**: Futures prices of different contracts of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese had varying increases. Spot prices of related products were provided. The basis, near - far month spreads, and cross - variety spreads showed certain changes [13]. - **Macro and industry news**: On August 25, the prices of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese in different regions were reported. As of August 22, the manganese ore inventory in ports changed [14]. - **Trend strength**: The trend strength of ferrosilicon is 0, and that of silicomanganese is 0 [15]. Coke and Coking Coal - **Fundamental data**: The JM2601 contract of coking coal closed at 1,215.5 yuan/ton, up 53.5 yuan/ton or 4.6%. The J2601 contract of coke closed at 1,736 yuan/ton, up 57.5 yuan/ton or 3.4%. Spot prices of coking coal and coke in some areas remained unchanged, while others changed. The basis and spreads also changed [16]. - **Macro and industry news**: Shanghai issued the "Six Measures for the Property Market", involving six adjustments such as reducing purchase restrictions, housing provident funds, housing credit, and property tax [16]. - **Trend strength**: The trend strength of coke is 0, and that of coking coal is 0 [17]. Logs - **Fundamental data**: The closing prices, trading volumes, and positions of different contracts of logs showed different trends. Spot prices of various types of logs in different regions remained mostly unchanged. The basis and spreads also had certain changes [19]. - **Macro and industry news**: Shanghai issued the "Six Measures for the Property Market", involving six adjustments such as reducing purchase restrictions, housing provident funds, housing credit, and property tax [21]. - **Trend strength**: The trend strength of logs is 1 [21].

Core Points - The EU and the US announced a new trade agreement detailing tariffs and market access, with the US imposing a 15% tariff on most EU goods while exempting certain products [1] - The EU committed to eliminating tariffs on US industrial goods and providing preferential market access for US seafood and agricultural products [1] - The EU plans to purchase $750 billion worth of US liquefied natural gas, oil, and nuclear products by 2028, along with $40 billion in US AI chips [1][2] Group 1 - The US will impose a 15% tariff on most EU imports, while certain natural resources, aircraft, and generic drugs are exempt [1] - The EU will eliminate tariffs on US industrial products and provide preferential access for US seafood and agricultural goods [1] - The EU aims to significantly increase its procurement of US military and defense equipment [1] Group 2 - The agreement has raised concerns about fairness, with critics arguing it disproportionately favors the US [4][8][16] - There are unresolved issues regarding steel and aluminum tariffs, with no clear solution provided in the agreement [9] - The digital regulatory divide remains a significant point of contention, with no substantial progress made in this area [11] Group 3 - The agreement has been described as a "terrible, complete surrender" by some EU officials, highlighting the lack of reciprocity [8] - Concerns have been raised about the potential negative impact on European growth and employment due to the perceived imbalance in the agreement [16] - The agreement lacks legal binding, raising questions about its long-term viability and enforcement [20][23] Group 4 - The EU is expected to initiate legislation to ensure the US commits to reducing auto tariffs retroactively [23] - The agreement is seen as a "loss control document" for the EU, reflecting its dependency on the US [23][25] - Future negotiations are anticipated to address a fair and balanced trade agreement, although skepticism remains about the EU's leverage [25]