Core Viewpoint - The visit of Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney to China from January 14-17, 2026, is seen as a corrective measure in Canada's recent policy towards China, reflecting an effort to balance strategic autonomy with economic realities [1][7]. Group 1: Bilateral Relations - The meeting between Prime Minister Carney and Chinese Premier Li Qiang resulted in the signing of multiple cooperation documents in areas such as trade, customs, energy, construction, culture, and public safety [7]. - Carney's visit is characterized as a "breakthrough journey," indicating a shift from confrontation to dialogue in Sino-Canadian relations, which is viewed positively amid a complex external environment [7][1]. Group 2: Economic Context - Canada has felt pressure in its economic relations with the United States, motivating the government to seek new trade relationships, with China being a crucial potential market [2]. - The trade relationship between China and Canada has faced significant challenges, including a 3.6% decline in total trade value in 2025, amounting to $89.62 billion, with Canadian imports from China decreasing by 10.4% [9][2]. Group 3: Strategic Shifts - Carney's administration aims for strategic autonomy to reduce dependence on the U.S., where exports to the U.S. account for approximately 75% of Canada's total exports [9]. - The government emphasizes pragmatic cooperation in specific sectors such as trade, energy, and agriculture, while also prioritizing the restoration of dialogue mechanisms like the Sino-Canadian Economic Joint Committee [10][9]. Group 4: Future Cooperation Potential - There is significant potential for cooperation in agriculture, energy, and green technology due to the complementary economic structures of China and Canada [12]. - Canada is the fourth-largest oil producer globally, while China is the largest energy consumer, with daily oil exports from Canada to China reaching 207,000 barrels since the completion of the Trans Mountain pipeline expansion [12][10]. Group 5: Public Sentiment and Future Outlook - Recent polls indicate that over half of Canadians support closer trade relations with China, and a significant majority are willing to reduce dependence on the U.S. for economic growth [12]. - Analysts suggest that the electric vehicle sector could serve as a litmus test for Canada's willingness to return to fair international trade practices [13].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Views - The report provides trend forecasts for various commodities in the black series. Iron ore is considered over - valued, and caution is advised when chasing long positions. Other commodities such as rebar, hot - rolled coil, silicon iron, manganese silicon, coke, coking coal, thermal coal, and logs are expected to show different types of oscillations [2]. Summary by Commodity Iron Ore - **Price Data**: The closing price of the I2605 futures contract was 813.0 yuan/ton, down 8.0 yuan/ton (-0.97%). Imported ore prices generally declined, and the basis for some varieties increased. The trend strength is 0 [4]. - **News**: The People's Bank of China will lower the rediscount and refinancing rates by 0.25 percentage points starting from January 19, 2026 [4]. Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil - **Price Data**: The closing price of the RB2605 rebar futures was 3,160 yuan/ton, down 4 yuan/ton (-0.13%); the HC2605 hot - rolled coil futures closed at 3,307 yuan/ton, unchanged. Spot prices showed some fluctuations, and the basis and spreads also changed. The trend strength for both is 0 [6]. - **News**: According to weekly data on January 15, rebar production decreased by 0.74 tons, hot - rolled coil production increased by 2.85 tons, and total inventory decreased. In December 2025, China's steel imports increased both in quantity and price compared to the previous month [6][8]. Silicon Iron and Manganese Silicon - **Price Data**: Futures prices of silicon iron and manganese silicon declined. Spot prices of related products were stable, and there were changes in basis, spreads, and cross - variety spreads. The trend strength for both is 0 [10]. - **News**: Steel mills' procurement prices and quantities for silicon iron and manganese silicon varied. Manganese ore suppliers increased their February 2026 quotes to China [11][12]. Coke and Coking Coal - **Price Data**: The JM2605 coking coal futures closed at 1,187.5 yuan/ton, down 9 yuan/ton (-0.8%); the J2605 coke futures closed at 1,745 yuan, up 6.5 yuan (0.4%). Spot prices of coking coal and coke had some fluctuations, and basis and spreads changed. The trend strength for both is 0 [13]. - **News**: The CCI metallurgical coal index was stable. Floods in Australia affected coal production, leading to a supply shortage and rising prices [13]. Thermal Coal - **Price Data**: Domestic and overseas thermal coal prices showed little change. The December 2025 coal import volume was much higher than expected [17]. - **News**: In December 2025, China's coal imports increased significantly. PPI and CPI data showed positive trends, and there were rumors about the withdrawal of coal production capacity for power supply guarantee [17][18]. Logs - **Price Data**: Futures prices of log contracts showed slight increases, and there were changes in trading volume and open interest. Spot prices of different types of logs were mostly stable. The trend strength is 0 [20]. - **News**: China's December 2025 RatingDog composite PMI was 51.3, indicating modest growth in business production and operation [22].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Views - The report provides investment views and strategies for various commodities in the black series, including iron ore, rebar, hot-rolled coil, ferrosilicon, silicomanganese, coke, coking coal, thermal coal, and logs. The views range from valuation concerns and caution in chasing prices for iron ore to different types of price oscillations (repeated, wide, high-level) for other commodities, and a short-term narrow price adjustment for thermal coal [2]. Summary by Commodity Iron Ore - **Price and Position Data**: The futures price of iron ore closed at 819.5 yuan/ton, down 3 yuan or 0.36%. The open interest of I2605 was 653,307 lots, a decrease of 1,527 lots. Imported and domestic ore spot prices mostly declined slightly, with the base price and spreads showing minor changes [4]. - **Macro and Industry News**: In December 2025, the national consumer price index (CPI) increased by 0.8% year-on-year [4]. - **Trend Intensity**: -1, indicating a bearish outlook [4]. Rebar and Hot-Rolled Coil - **Price and Position Data**: The RB2605 rebar futures closed at 3,158 yuan/ton, unchanged, and HC2605 hot-rolled coil futures closed at 3,303 yuan/ton, down 3 yuan or 0.09%. Rebar trading volume was 837,879 lots, and open interest decreased by 38,760 lots; hot-rolled coil trading volume was 404,061 lots, and open interest increased by 12,752 lots. Spot prices in various regions showed minor fluctuations [6]. - **Macro and Industry News**: On January 8, steel output increased, total inventory of rebar rose while that of hot-rolled coil decreased, and apparent demand for both declined. In late December 2025, key steel enterprises' production and inventory data showed mixed trends, and the government implemented export license management for some steel products. In October 2025, China's steel imports decreased in quantity and price [7][9]. - **Trend Intensity**: Both rebar and hot-rolled coil had a trend intensity of 0, indicating a neutral outlook [10]. Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - **Price and Position Data**: Futures prices of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese showed different changes, with trading volumes and open interests varying. Spot prices of silicon-manganese increased, and manganese ore prices also rose. Price differences such as basis, near-far month spreads, and cross-variety spreads changed accordingly [11]. - **Macro and Industry News**: Iron alloy prices in different regions had adjustments, and major manganese ore suppliers announced increased prices for February 2026 shipments. A large steel group increased its silicon-manganese procurement in January [12][13]. - **Trend Intensity**: Both ferrosilicon and silicomanganese had a trend intensity of 0, indicating a neutral outlook [14]. Coke and Coking Coal - **Price and Position Data**: The JM2605 coking coal futures closed at 1,191 yuan/ton, down 47 yuan or 3.8%, and J2605 coke futures closed at 1,745 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan or 1.4%. Trading volumes and open interests decreased. Spot prices of coking coal and coke were mostly stable, with some minor changes. Price differences such as basis and spreads also changed [15]. - **Macro and Industry News**: On January 13, the CCI metallurgical coal index showed an increase in the price of low-sulfur coking coal in Shanxi, and the port coke spot market was weak [15]. - **Trend Intensity**: Both coke and coking coal had a trend intensity of 0, indicating a neutral outlook [16]. Thermal Coal - **Price and Position Data**: Prices of thermal coal in production areas, ports, and overseas markets showed different changes, with some increasing and some decreasing. The January long-term agreement prices for Shanxi and Shaanxi also decreased [18]. - **Macro and Industry News**: In December 2025, the PPI decline narrowed, and the CPI increase expanded. There were market rumors about the withdrawal arrangement of coal supply guarantee and increased production capacity, and Indonesia planned to tighten its coal production quota in 2026 [18][19]. - **Trend Intensity**: No trend intensity is provided in the report. Logs - **Price and Position Data**: Log futures prices, trading volumes, open interests, and spot prices showed various changes, with some prices remaining stable and others having minor fluctuations. Price differences such as basis and spreads also changed [21]. - **Macro and Industry News**: China's Composite PMI in December 2025 was 51.3, indicating further growth in the total production and operation of Chinese enterprises [23]. - **Trend Intensity**: 0, indicating a neutral outlook [23].

Group 1 - Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney is set to visit China to discuss trade, energy, and security issues, marking the first visit by a Canadian Prime Minister since 2017, with significant implications for Canada-China relations [1][3] - The visit comes at a time when Canadian agricultural producers are facing challenges due to China's imposition of counter-tariffs on Canadian canola oil, pork, and seafood, as well as an anti-dumping investigation into canola seeds [3][4] - Carney aims to shift Canada's economy from reliance on a single trade partner to a more resilient economy, establishing new partnerships in energy and trade to attract investment and create opportunities for Canadians [3][4] Group 2 - Saskatchewan's Premier Scott Moe expressed optimism about Carney's visit, hoping it will advance discussions on canola issues and diversify Canada's market engagement with China [4][5] - Security expert Wesley Walker noted the complexity of Carney's mission, suggesting that the current geopolitical climate makes this an opportune time for the visit, with expectations for tangible outcomes to address the gap since the last visit in 2017 [4] - The visit is also seen as an effort to reduce Canada's trade dependency on the U.S., which accounts for 75.9% of Canadian exports, significantly more than China, highlighting the need for predictability in Canada-China relations [4]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Cotton: ★★★ [1] - Pulp: ★★★ [1] - Sugar: ★★★ [1] - Apple: ★★★ [1] - Timber: ★★★ [1] - 20 - rubber: ☆☆☆ [1] - Natural rubber: ☆☆☆ [1] - Butadiene rubber: ★★★ [1] Core Views - The report analyzes various soft - commodity markets, including cotton, sugar, apple, rubber, pulp, and timber, and gives corresponding operation suggestions based on market supply - demand, inventory, and price trends [2][3][5] Summary by Commodity Cotton & Cotton Yarn - Zhengzhou cotton prices dropped sharply today with a significant reduction in positions, as commodities fell collectively. The recent rally was driven by expectations, while downstream conditions were average. Spot sales were ordinary with a stable - to - weak basis. Although new - cotton production increased substantially, commercial inventories were lower year - on - year, and sales progress was faster, providing strong support for the market. Currently in the off - season, demand remained stable. As of December 25, cumulative lint processing was 669.7 million tons, up 75.8 million tons year - on - year. As of December 15, national cotton commercial inventories were 534.9 million tons, down 1.63 million tons year - on - year. Xinjiang's cotton planting area reduction policy was implemented, but the reduction range was not specified. Spinning mills' demand for raw materials was resilient with low finished - product inventories, but downstream orders were average. Suggestion: Exit long positions and wait and see [2] Sugar - Overnight, US sugar prices oscillated. Internationally, the short - term market focus was on the yield forecast gap in the Northern Hemisphere. In the 25/26 sugar season, India's production progress was fast with a significant year - on - year increase in sugar output. However, Thailand's production was slow and output was below expectations. Domestically, Zhengzhou sugar prices oscillated. In December, Guangxi's sugar production and sales both decreased. December single - month sugar production in Guangxi was 180.8 million tons, down 43.1 million tons year - on - year; sugar sales were 79.54 million tons, down 55.18 million tons year - on - year; industrial inventories were 105.71 million tons, down 6.21 million tons year - on - year. The sales decline was mainly due to strong market bearish sentiment. Although there was a strong expectation of increased production in Guangxi in the 25/26 sugar season, the production progress was always slow. If production could not increase later, futures prices would rise. Suggestion: Wait and see [3] Apple - Futures prices oscillated at high levels. In the spot market, mainstream prices were stable, and demand increased. In Shaanxi, the asking prices of some soft - semi - commercial fruit from farmers decreased, and farmers' willingness to sell increased. Cold - storage merchants in the producing areas mainly packed their own goods for market, with less procurement of farmers' fruit. Due to merchants starting to stock up for the Spring Festival, cold - storage trading volume increased. As of December 26, national cold - storage apple inventories were 702.1 million tons, down 12.76% year - on - year. The national cold - storage apple destocking volume was 10.6 million tons, down 14.17% year - on - year. The market trading logic shifted to demand. This year's apples had poor quality but high purchase prices, and the reluctance of traders and farmers to sell might affect the destocking speed. Suggestion: Wait and see [4] 20 - rubber, Natural Rubber, and Synthetic Rubber - Today, natural rubber RU and 20 - rubber NR futures prices dropped slightly, while butadiene rubber BR futures prices rose slightly. Domestic natural rubber spot prices were stable, synthetic rubber spot prices increased, and the outer - market butadiene port prices continued to rise. Thailand's raw - material market prices were stable with some increases. In terms of supply, global natural rubber supply entered the production - reducing period, with China's Yunnan production area fully stopped, Hainan accelerating to stop, and Vietnam gradually stopping later. Last week, the operating rate of domestic butadiene rubber plants was stable, with Maoming Petrochemical and Dushanzi Petrochemical plants still under maintenance, and the operating rate of upstream butadiene plants continuing to rise. In terms of demand, last week, the domestic tire operating rate dropped significantly, and the finished - product inventories of Shandong tire enterprises continued to increase. In terms of inventory, this week, the total natural rubber inventory in Qingdao area increased to 54.83 million tons, with both bonded - area and general - trade inventories increasing. Before the holiday, China's butadiene rubber social inventory decreased to 1.47 million tons, and this week, the upstream Chinese butadiene port inventory decreased to 4.13 million tons. Overall, after the holiday, demand would recover, natural rubber supply would decline, synthetic rubber supply would be stable, natural rubber inventory would continue to accumulate, synthetic rubber inventory would continue to decline, cost support would strengthen, and market sentiment would weaken. Suggestion: Wait and see [5] Pulp - Pulp prices dropped today. Limited by weak downstream demand, the short - term upward space for pulp might be restricted. The focus was on macro and capital trends. The spot price of coniferous pulp Moon was 5,450 yuan/ton, and the price of Russian coniferous pulp in Jiangsu, Zhejiang, and Shanghai was 5,400 yuan/ton; the price of broad - leaf pulp Goldfish was 4,750 yuan/ton. As of January 8, 2026, the inventory of China's main pulp ports was 200.7 million tons, up 1.0 million tons from the previous period, a 0.5% increase. The inventory continued to accumulate. The narrowing price difference between coniferous and broad - leaf pulp provided some support for coniferous pulp. Recently, the outer - market quotes for coniferous and broad - leaf pulp both increased. Paper mills' procurement of pulp was mainly based on rigid demand, and the increase in base - paper prices was relatively weak. Suggestion: Buy on dips [6] Timber - Futures prices oscillated. In the spot market, mainstream quotes were stable. In terms of supply, outer - market quotes decreased, and domestic spot prices were weak. The short - term arrival volume would decrease. In terms of demand, as of January 2, the average daily outbound volume of logs from 13 national ports was 56,500 cubic meters, a 3.09% week - on - week decrease. Demand entered the off - season, and the recent outbound volume decreased. In terms of inventory, as of January 2, the total national port log inventory was 2.67 million cubic meters, a 5.12% increase. The total national log inventory was relatively low, and the inventory pressure was relatively small. Overall, low inventory provided some support for prices. Suggestion: Wait and see [7]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The spot prices of mainstream radiata pine products in Shandong and Jiangsu markets remained stable, with a price difference of 0 yuan/m³ for 3.9 - meter 30 + radiata pine between the two regions. European spruce and fir in the Jiangsu market are still in short supply [4]. - As of December 21, there were 33 ships departing from New Zealand in December, with 26 bound for mainland China. It is estimated that 15 ships will arrive in December and 18 in January, with an expected arrival volume of 1.58 million cubic meters in December [5][8]. - As of the week of December 26, the daily average shipment volume and inventory of the four major ports remained unchanged from the previous week, with a total inventory of 1.9131 million cubic meters [6]. - As of December 31, the closing price of the main contract LG2603 was 776 yuan/m³, a 0.3% increase from the previous week. The market was in a high - level oscillation pattern with a weak supply - demand fundamental situation. The monthly spreads tended to narrow [18]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Supply - As of December 21, there were 33 ships departing from New Zealand in December, 26 of which were going to mainland China and 7 to Taiwan, China, and South Korea for partial unloading. It is expected that about 15 ships will arrive in December and 18 in January, with an expected arrival volume of 1.58 million cubic meters in December [5][8]. - Detailed information on the departure time, load, current port, expected destination port, and expected arrival time of 33 ships from New Zealand in December is provided [8]. 3.2 Demand and Inventory - As of the week of January 2, the daily average shipment volume of Lanshan Port was 21,600 cubic meters (unchanged from the previous week), and that of Taicang Port was 14,600 cubic meters (unchanged from the previous week). - In terms of port inventory, Lanshan Port had about 1.2668 million cubic meters (unchanged from the previous week), Taicang Port about 385,500 cubic meters (unchanged from the previous week), Xinminzhou about 126,500 cubic meters (unchanged from the previous week), and Jiangdu Port about 134,300 cubic meters (unchanged from the previous week). The total inventory of the four major ports was 1.9131 million cubic meters, with no change in inventory from the previous week [12]. - A table shows the inventory and daily shipment volume of major domestic ports over multiple time periods, including inventory changes compared to the previous week and four weeks ago [13]. 3.3 Market Trends - As of December 31, the closing price of the main contract LG2603 was 776 yuan/m³, a 0.3% increase from the previous week. The market was in a high - level oscillation pattern, and the fundamentals maintained a weak supply - demand situation. The monthly spreads tended to narrow. The 03 - 05 monthly spread was - 10.5 yuan/m³, the 03 - 07 monthly spread was - 22.5 yuan/m³, and the 05 - 07 monthly spread was - 12 yuan/m³ [18]. 3.4 Price and Spread - **Spot Price**: The report provides the spot price data of various tree species and specifications of logs in Shandong and Jiangsu regions, showing that most prices remained unchanged from the previous week [21]. - **Regional Spread**: The report presents the price spreads of mainstream tree species between Shandong and Jiangsu regions, including 3.9 - meter 30 + radiata pine, 3.9 - meter 40 + radiata pine, etc. [22][23]. - **Species and Specification Spread**: The report shows the price spreads between different tree species and specifications, such as the spread between 3.9 - meter 30 + radiata pine and 40 + radiata pine [41]. 3.5 Other - **Freight and Exchange Rate**: As of the week of January 4, the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) was 1877.00 points, the Handysize Shipping Index (BHSI) was 719 points, and the Shanghai Export Containerized Freight Index (SCFI) was 1656.32 points. The US dollar index weakened, the US dollar - RMB exchange rate was 7.003, a 0.06% decrease from the previous week, and the US dollar - New Zealand dollar exchange rate increased by 1.3% to 1.736 [56]. - A table shows the changes in freight - related indices and exchange rates over multiple time periods, including the comparison with the previous week and four weeks ago [55].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Iron ore is expected to fluctuate repeatedly [2] - Rebar and hot-rolled coil prices are likely to remain range-bound, supported by macro factors but constrained by the industry [2] - Ferrosilicon and silicomanganese are expected to experience a bullish oscillation due to the game between long and short funds [2] - Coke is expected to experience high-level oscillations as the fourth round of price cuts begins [2] - Coking coal is expected to experience high-level oscillations due to year-end production cuts [2] - Logs are expected to experience low-level oscillations [2] Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Iron Ore - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of the I2605 futures contract was 789.0 yuan/ton, down 7.5 yuan/ton or 0.94% from the previous day. The open interest decreased by 16,080 lots to 613,601 lots. The prices of imported and domestic iron ore increased slightly, and the basis widened [5] - **Macro and Industry News**: From January to November, the total operating income of state-owned enterprises was 75.62576 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.0%; the total profit was 3.71945 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 3.1%; and the taxes payable were 5.2803 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.2% [5] - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of iron ore is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [5] Rebar and Hot-Rolled Coil - **Fundamental Data**: The closing prices of the RB2605 and HC2605 futures contracts were 3,134 yuan/ton and 3,282 yuan/ton, down 3 yuan/ton (-0.10%) and 11 yuan/ton (-0.33%) respectively. The open interest of RB2605 increased by 30,014 lots, and that of HC2605 increased by 7,022 lots. Spot prices remained stable, and the basis and spreads changed slightly [7] - **Macro and Industry News**: On December 25, the weekly data from Steelhome showed that rebar production increased by 2.71 tons, hot-rolled coil production increased by 1.63 tons, and the total inventory of the five major varieties decreased by 36.79 tons. In mid-December 2025, the average daily output of key steel enterprises decreased, and the steel inventory increased. The Ministry of Commerce and the General Administration of Customs will implement export license management for some steel products. In mid-November, the social inventory of five major steel products in 21 cities decreased. In October 2025, China's steel imports decreased [9] - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensities of rebar and hot-rolled coil are both 0, indicating a neutral outlook [10] Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - **Fundamental Data**: The closing prices of the Ferrosilicon2603 and Ferrosilicon2605 futures contracts were 5,750 yuan/ton and 5,706 yuan/ton, up 74 yuan/ton. The closing prices of the Silicomanganese2603 and Silicomanganese2605 futures contracts were 5,942 yuan/ton and 5,948 yuan/ton, up 80 yuan/ton and 60 yuan/ton respectively. Spot prices increased, and the basis and spreads changed [11] - **Macro and Industry News**: On December 30, the prices of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese in different regions increased. The export tariffs of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese will remain unchanged in 2026. In December, the average operating rate of ferrosilicon enterprises decreased, and the production decreased year-on-year. The production in Ningxia and Shaanxi increased compared with November [12][13] - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensities of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese are both 0, indicating a neutral outlook [13] Coke and Coking Coal - **Fundamental Data**: The closing prices of the JM2605 and J2605 futures contracts were 1,119.5 yuan/ton and 1,715 yuan/ton, up 31.5 yuan/ton (2.9%) and 34.5 yuan/ton (2.1%) respectively. Spot prices remained stable, and the basis and spreads changed [15] - **Macro and Industry News**: On December 30, the CCI metallurgical coal index and the Mysteel metallurgical coke (dry quenching) domestic spot price index remained unchanged [15] - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensities of coke and coking coal are both 0, indicating a neutral outlook [18] Logs - **Fundamental Data**: The closing prices of the 2603, 2605, and 2607 futures contracts were 776, 787.5, and 796.5 respectively, with small fluctuations in prices and trading volumes. Spot prices remained stable [19] - **Macro and Industry News**: On December 29, the State Council Tariff Commission issued the "2026 Tariff Adjustment Plan", which will be implemented from January 1, 2026 [21] - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of logs is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [21]

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall market shows complex trends, with different commodities and financial products having their own characteristics. Some are influenced by supply - demand fundamentals, some by geopolitical factors, and others by macro - economic policies and seasonal factors. The market rhythm switches quickly, and most products are in a state of oscillation, with different potential investment opportunities and risks [2][3][14] - Different industries have different outlooks. For example, some industries like polycrystalline silicon and manganese silicon are expected to have a relatively positive trend, while others such as urea and PVC may face certain challenges in supply - demand balance and price trends [13][18][28] Summary by Related Catalogs Precious Metals and Base Metals - **Precious Metals**: International gold prices continued a moderate upward trend after the breakthrough, while silver, platinum, and palladium accelerated their rise, with a gain of over 10%. The Fed's easing prospects and geopolitical risks support the strength of precious metals. The spot shortage expectation makes silver, platinum, and palladium more favored by funds, and the gold - silver ratio has dropped significantly below the average. However, exchange restrictions are frequent, and market volatility is extremely high [2] - **Copper**: Copper prices continued to rise strongly last Friday. The Shanghai copper weighted reached a maximum of 102,700 yuan, and it is expected that the London copper will open at $12,700 - $12,800. The market has quickly reached the bullish targets of most overseas institutions for 2026. The target price of the copper market is raised, with the London copper at about $13,100 and the Shanghai copper at about 104,000 yuan [3] - **Aluminum**: The aluminum market's fundamentals are neutral, with poor apparent demand and spot feedback. Shanghai aluminum mainly followed the upward trend, with relatively mild fluctuations. Long - positions should be held with the 40 - day moving average as the support [4] - **Zinc**: In late December, domestic smelter overhauls increased, supporting the adjustment of Shanghai zinc above the annual line. In January, the pressure on the zinc ingot supply side is small, and with the late Spring Festival in 2026 and the expected good start, the consumption side is not pessimistic. Shanghai zinc is expected to oscillate in the range of 22,800 - 23,800 yuan/ton [7] Energy and Chemicals - **Fuel Oil & Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: High - sulfur fuel oil supply is mainly affected by geopolitical factors, with the shipping rhythm in the Middle East and Russia slowing down. The demand side may be boosted by improved refinery profits and the US blockade of Venezuelan oil exports. Singapore's inventory continues to accumulate, and the high - inventory pressure is still significant. Low - sulfur fuel oil supply is dominated by overseas refinery starts. The demand side of ship fuel consumption is continuously weak due to high - sulfur substitution [21] - **Asphalt**: Since December, the weekly shipment volume has remained below 400,000 tons, at a low level in the same period of the past four years. Last week, both social and factory inventories increased. The supply - demand of BU is marginally relaxed, but positive news has a significant boost. However, it will eventually return to the price - pressured pattern dominated by supply - demand relaxation [22] Agricultural Products - **Soybean & Bean Meal**: CBOT soybeans oscillated downward after reopening last Friday, and Dalian soybean meal rose first and then fell. In the future, attention should be paid to the specific export situation of US soybeans and whether the La Nina weather in South America can have a continuous impact [35] - **Cotton**: US cotton rebounded from a low level last week, and the weekly signing data improved, with increased Chinese purchases. Domestic Zhengzhou cotton rose continuously, and the market is bullish. Although this year's new cotton production has increased significantly, the commercial inventory is basically the same as the previous year, and the sales progress is relatively fast [42] Others - **Stock Index**: The previous trading day, the broader market oscillated with heavy volume, and the Shanghai Composite Index recorded an 8 - day consecutive gain. All major futures index contracts closed higher, with IC leading the gain. Industrial profits of large - scale enterprises from January to November showed a growth trend, and the RMB exchange rate broke "7" last week [47] - **Treasury Bonds**: On December 26, 2025, the 30 - year treasury bond futures had the largest increase of 0.36%. In December, the central bank's net MLF injection was 10 billion yuan, a consecutive tenth - month incremental renewal. Against the background of increased counter - cyclical adjustment policies, long - term interest rates have risen significantly recently [48]

Core Viewpoints - Industrial enterprise profits continue to decline, primarily due to a significant drop in the contribution from other gains and ongoing cost pressures [3][64] - In November, industrial enterprise profits fell by 4.6 percentage points year-on-year to -13.4%, with profit margins also decreasing [6][33] - The decline in profits is attributed to a notable decrease in other gains, which fell by 9.4 percentage points to -5.1% [3][64] Revenue - In November, industrial enterprise revenue showed improvement, with a year-on-year increase of 1.6%, slightly down from 1.8% in the previous month [2][8] - The actual revenue growth rate, excluding price factors, rose by 3.1 percentage points to 3.1%, positively impacting profit contributions [4][27] - Revenue growth was observed across major industrial chains, with the petrochemical, metallurgy, and consumer chains all experiencing increases [4][27] Costs - Industrial enterprises faced significant cost pressures in November, with the overall cost rate at 84.9%, up 0.2 percentage points from the previous year [4][23] - The metallurgy chain experienced the highest cost pressure, with a cost rate of 85.4%, which is 0.7 percentage points higher than last year [4][23] - Certain sectors, such as non-ferrous rolling and instrumentation, saw notable increases in cost rates, while the petrochemical and consumer chains experienced slight declines [4][23] Industry Performance - Specific industries, such as beverages and food, saw a dramatic decline in profit growth, with beverage profits dropping by 93.4 percentage points to -90.4% [3][17] - The negative contributions from industries like non-ferrous processing and oil and gas extraction further impacted overall profit performance [3][17] - Despite some revenue recovery, the pressures from other gains and costs significantly affected profitability in these sectors [3][17] Inventory - The nominal inventory of industrial enterprises increased by 0.9 percentage points year-on-year to 4.6% in November, indicating a slight rise in actual inventory growth [6][50] - The actual inventory growth rate, adjusted for price factors, was 7.7%, reflecting changes in inventory management across different sectors [6][50]

Core Viewpoints - Industrial enterprise profits continued to decline, primarily due to a significant drop in other gains and ongoing cost pressures [3][64] - In November, industrial enterprise profits fell by 4.6 percentage points year-on-year to -13.4%, with profit margins also decreasing [6][33] - The decline in profits is attributed to a notable decrease in contributions from other gains, which fell by 9.4 percentage points to -5.1% [3][64] Revenue - In November, industrial enterprise revenue showed improvement, with a year-on-year increase of 1.6%, slightly down from 1.8% in the previous month [2][8] - The actual revenue growth rate, excluding price factors, rose by 3.1 percentage points to 3.1%, positively impacting profit comparisons [4][27] - Revenue growth was observed across major industrial chains, with the petrochemical, metallurgy, and consumer chains all experiencing increases [4][27] Costs - Industrial enterprises faced significant cost pressures in November, with the overall cost rate at 84.9%, up 0.2 percentage points from the previous year [4][23] - The metallurgy chain experienced the highest cost pressure, with a cost rate of 85.4%, which is 0.7 percentage points higher than the previous year [4][23] - Certain sectors, such as non-ferrous rolling and instrumentation, saw notable increases in cost rates, while the petrochemical and consumer chains experienced slight declines [4][23] Industry Performance - Specific industries, such as beverages and food, saw a dramatic decline in profit growth, with beverage profits dropping by 93.4 percentage points to -90.4% [3][17] - The negative contributions from industries like non-ferrous processing and oil and gas extraction further impacted overall profit performance [3][17] - Despite some revenue recovery in these sectors, the decline in other gains significantly affected profit margins [3][17] Inventory - The nominal inventory of industrial enterprises increased by 0.9 percentage points year-on-year to 4.6% in November, indicating a slight rise in actual inventory growth [6][50] - The actual inventory growth rate, adjusted for price factors, was 7.7%, reflecting changes in inventory levels across different stages of production [6][50] Summary - High cost rates remain a key constraint on profit recovery, with ongoing "anti-involution" policies being implemented to address these pressures [5][66] - The current profit pressures are largely due to rigid cost increases driven by downstream investment practices [5][66] - Future monitoring will focus on the effectiveness of policies aimed at alleviating cost pressures and their impact on industrial profitability [5][66]