Report Information - Report Title: "Black: Fed Rate Cut Imminent, Demand Still Recovering" [1] - Report Date: September 15, 2025 [1] - Report Author: Jiang Yulong [1] Investment Rating - The report does not mention the industry investment rating. Core Views - The Fed is on the verge of a rate cut, and demand is still in the process of recovery. The black sector showed a divergent trend last week. The iron ore price initially rose significantly but then declined, while coking coal and coke prices strengthened in the second half of the week, and the rebar price fell below the previous week's low. There are expectations of anti - involution policies in the steel industry, and the Fed's rate cut expectation has increased [2][3]. Summary by Directory 01 Black Sector Trend Comparison - The black sector showed a divergent trend last week. The iron ore price was strong, and the coking coal and coke prices were weak. The 01 contract of iron ore reached a new high for the year due to unconfirmed news but then fell back [3][5]. 02 Futures Market Rise and Fall Comparison - The non - ferrous sector was strong, while most other sectors declined [7]. 03 Spot Price - The prices of rebar and coking coal and coke declined, while the prices of hot - rolled coils and iron ore increased [9]. 04 Profit and Valuation - Steel mills' profitability is acceptable, and the valuation of rebar futures is relatively low. The rebar futures price has fallen to near the cost of valley - rate electricity for electric arc furnaces [4][11]. 05 Steel Supply and Demand - Steel production has slightly declined, and the inventory accumulation speed has slowed down. The total inventory of five major steel products and the rebar inventory are presented in the historical data comparison charts [13][14]. 06 Iron Ore Supply and Demand - Iron ore shipments have suddenly decreased, and the daily average pig iron output has significantly increased. The daily average pig iron output last week rose to a high level of over 2.4 million tons [4][22]. 07 Coking Coal Supply and Demand - Coking coal production has rebounded from a low level, and the inventory has significantly decreased. Although the coking coal production has increased, it is still far from the high - level, and the total inventory has decreased again [4][25]. 08 Coke Supply and Demand - Coke production has increased, and the total inventory has slightly accumulated. The daily production of coke from 247 steel mills and all coking plants has increased [27][28]. 09 Variety Spreads - The rebar's on - paper profit has decreased, and the spread between hot - rolled coils and rebar has widened [30]. 10 Key Data/Policy/Information - The Minister of Industry and Information Technology held a symposium on the "15th Five - Year Plan". China's central bank increased its gold reserves in August. The Fed's rate cut expectation in September has increased due to weak US non - farm employment data. Japan's Prime Minister resigned. OPEC + will increase oil production in October. China's steel exports decreased in August. There were explosions in Qatar. China's PPI and CPI data in August showed certain trends. A coal mine in Heilongjiang has stopped production [37]. Trading Strategies Steel - Buy on dips. For RB2601, pay attention to the support level in the range of [3000 - 3100] [4]. Coking Coal - Trade within the range. For JM2601, pay attention to the range of [1060 - 1230] [4]. Iron Ore - Observe or trade within the range. For I2601, pay attention to the range of [760 - 810] [4].

Core Insights - The 2025 list of China's top 500 private enterprises was released, with a revenue threshold of 27.023 billion yuan, and the total revenue of these enterprises reached 4.305 trillion yuan, with a net profit of 180 billion yuan [1] Group 1: Company Performance - Nine companies from Shanxi province made it to the list, including Pengfei Group, Jincheng Steel Group, and Jin Nan Steel Group, among others [1][2] - The total revenue of the nine Shanxi companies amounted to 463.446 billion yuan, showing an increase compared to the previous year [3] - Pengfei Group ranked 88th nationally with a revenue of 110.406 billion yuan, marking a rise of four positions from last year, and is the only company from Shanxi to exceed the 10 billion yuan revenue mark [3][5] - Jincheng Steel Group achieved a revenue of 68.676 billion yuan, ranking 165th, and improved by 17 positions [5] - Jin Nan Steel Group reported a revenue of 65.86 billion yuan, ranking 176th, and had the fastest rise in rankings among Shanxi companies, moving up 41 positions [5] Group 2: Industry Insights - The majority of the nine listed companies are concentrated in the energy and steel sectors, with Longzhong Nanye Group being the only representative from the high-tech industry [2][3] - The 2025 list indicates that 72% of the companies belong to the secondary industry, and 66.4% are in manufacturing [7] - The private enterprises are actively investing in strategic emerging industries, with 309 companies reporting investments in 627 projects across various sectors, including new materials, new energy, and high-end equipment manufacturing [7] - The presence of Shanxi's key industry chain "chain leader" enterprises among the listed companies reflects the province's efforts in industrial transformation and upgrading [7]

Core Viewpoint - The company, Baotailong New Materials Co., Ltd., reported significant declines in revenue and production across its main product lines for the first half of 2025 compared to the same period in 2024, indicating substantial operational challenges [1][2]. Group 1: Main Operating Data - The total operating revenue for the company in the first half of 2025 was approximately 1.37 million yuan, a decrease of 99.76% from 574.45 million yuan in the same period of 2024 [1]. - The operating cost for the same period was about 1.42 million yuan, down 99.80% from 698.45 million yuan year-on-year [1]. - The production volume of coke was zero tons, representing a 100% decrease from 318,721 tons in the first half of 2024 [1]. - The sales volume of coke was 1,286.81 tons, a decline of 99.59% from 311,970.89 tons in the previous year [1]. - The inventory of coke decreased by 86.35% to 3,006.51 tons from 22,025.60 tons [1]. Group 2: Coal and Chemical Industry Performance - In the coal and coke sector, the operating revenue increased by 278.58% to approximately 80.68 million yuan, while the operating cost rose by 169.91% to about 66.39 million yuan [1]. - The production of coal was reported at 559,781 tons, with a sales volume of 220,927.10 tons [1]. - The operating revenue for the coal sector was approximately 81.78 million yuan, a significant increase of 1,821.08% from 4.26 million yuan [1]. Group 3: Price Changes and Procurement - The price of coke (including coke powder and particles) decreased by 42.12% compared to the previous year [2]. - The price of coal tar increased by 2.32%, while methanol prices rose by 5.64% [2]. - The procurement of raw coal was 559,781 tons from self-production and 169.74 tons from external purchases [2].

Report Information - Report Title: Weekly Report on the Black Industry Chain [1] - Report Date: August 25, 2025 [2] - Report Provider: Huabao Futures [2] Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - **Overall Market**: The black market is facing a complex situation with various factors influencing different segments. The market is affected by factors such as supply and demand dynamics, macro - policies, and the approaching 9.3 parade, which may lead to production restrictions [9][10]. - **Steel Products**: The steel market is in a state of weak supply and demand, with prices likely to fluctuate and trend downward in the short term [9]. - **Iron Ore**: The price of iron ore is expected to be stronger this week, influenced by macro factors. The supply - demand relationship has shifted from tight to balanced, and the price is expected to trade in the range of 775 - 810 yuan/ton for the main contract [10]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The prices of coking coal and coke are likely to experience increased volatility. Overseas interest - rate cut expectations and domestic environmental protection policies are key influencing factors [11]. - **Ferroalloys**: Ferroalloy prices are expected to follow the black market trend and trade in a range, with supply increasing slightly and demand remaining resilient but not strongly driving prices [12]. Summary by Directory 01. Weekly Market Review - **Futures and Spot Prices**: Most futures and spot prices of black products declined last week. For example, the futures price of rebar RB2510 dropped from 3188 to 3119 yuan/ton (-2.16%), and the spot price of HRB400E Φ20 in Shanghai decreased from 3320 to 3280 yuan/ton (-1.20%) [7]. 02. This Week's Black Market Forecast Steel Products - **Logic**: The utilization rate of blast - furnace iron - making capacity increased slightly, while the profitability rate of steel mills decreased. The demand for finished steel products is weak, and the approaching parade may affect both supply and demand. The decline in coking coal and coke prices also contributed to the steel price adjustment [9]. - **Viewpoint**: The price of steel products is expected to be volatile and trend downward in the short term [9]. - **Concerns**: Macro - policies and downstream demand [9]. Iron Ore - **Logic**: The supply of iron ore has increased more than expected, with Australian and Brazilian shipments rising. The demand is still resilient but with a weakening support. The inventory is expected to remain stable or increase slightly [10]. - **Viewpoint**: The price of iron ore is expected to be stronger this week, trading in the range of 775 - 810 yuan/ton for the main contract [10]. - **Concerns**: Parade - related production - restriction policies, Fed's interest - rate cut expectations, and supply growth rate [10]. Coking Coal and Coke - **Logic**: Coking coal prices were volatile last week, affected by a coal - mine accident and Fed's dovish remarks. Coke completed the 7th round of price increase. Environmental protection policies may lead to production restrictions in steel mills [11]. - **Viewpoint**: The prices of coking coal and coke are likely to be more volatile, with short - term demand showing a downward trend [11]. - **Concerns**: Implementation of environmental protection policies, coal production, steel - mill iron - water output, and import - coal customs clearance [11]. Ferroalloys - **Logic**: Overseas interest - rate cut expectations have increased. The supply of ferroalloys has increased slightly, while the demand has decreased slightly. The inventory has decreased, and the cost support is different for different alloys [12]. - **Viewpoint**: Ferroalloy prices are expected to follow the black market trend and trade in a range [12]. - **Concerns**: Tariff policies, domestic macro - policies, terminal demand, steel - mill profitability, and domestic production - restriction policies [12]. 03. Variety Data Steel Products - **Rebar**: Last week, the production was 214.65 tons (down 5.8 tons week - on - week), and the apparent demand was 194.8 tons (up 4.86 tons week - on - week). The total inventory increased by 19.85 tons to 607.04 tons [14][22]. - **Hot - Rolled Coil**: The production was 325.24 tons (up 9.65 tons week - on - week), and the apparent demand was 321.27 tons (up 6.52 tons week - on - week). The total inventory increased by 3.97 tons to 361.44 tons [28][32]. Iron Ore - **Port Inventory**: The total port inventory of imported iron ore was 13845.20 tons (up 25.93 tons week - on - week), with the Australian ore inventory at 6114.03 tons (down 13.50 tons week - on - week) and the Brazilian ore inventory at 4996.89 tons (up 56.05 tons week - on - week) [45]. - **Steel - Mill Inventory**: The inventory of 247 steel mills was 9065.47 tons (down 70.93 tons week - on - week), and the daily consumption was 297.84 tons/day (down 0.68 tons/day week - on - week) [55]. - **Global Shipment**: The total global shipment was 3406.6 tons (up 359.9 tons week - on - week), with Australian and Brazilian shipments to the world at 2669.7 tons (up 242.0 tons week - on - week) [70]. Coking Coal and Coke - **Inventory**: The total coke inventory was 888.62 tons (up 1.21 tons week - on - week), and the total coking coal inventory was 2610.599 tons (up 17.7 tons week - on - week) [96][103]. - **Profitability and Production**: The average profit per ton of coke for independent coke enterprises was 23 yuan (up 3 yuan week - on - week), and the daily production of 523 coking coal mines was 77.1 tons (up 0.7 tons week - on - week) [111][112]. Ferroalloys - **Spot Price**: The spot price of manganese ore in Tianjin Port (Mn36% semi - carbonate manganese block from South Africa) was 34 yuan/dry - ton degree (down 0.8 yuan week - on - week), the spot price of ferromanganese 6517 in Inner Mongolia was 5750 yuan/ton (down 50 yuan week - on - week), and the spot price of ferrosilicon 72 in Inner Mongolia was 5300 yuan/ton (down 150 yuan week - on - week) [127]. - **Production and Demand**: The weekly production of silicomanganese (187 independent enterprises) was 211190 tons (up 4130 tons week - on - week), and the weekly demand for silicomanganese in five major steel products decreased by 0.08% week - on - week [133][139]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of 63 independent silicomanganese enterprises was 156000 tons (down 2800 tons week - on - week), and the inventory of 60 independent ferrosilicon enterprises was 62080 tons (down 3100 tons week - on - week) [143].

股票代码：601011 股票简称：宝泰隆 编号：临2025-044号 宝泰隆新材料股份有限公司 2025 年 1-6 月主要经营数据的公告 本公司董事会及全体董事保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、 误导性陈述或者重大遗漏，并对其内容的真实性、准确性和完整性承 担法律责任。 宝泰隆新材料股份有限公司（以下简称"公司"）根据上海证券交 易所《<上市公司自律监管指引第 3 号——行业信息披露>第十三号— —化工》的相关规定，现将公司 2025 年 1-6 月主要经营数据披露如 下： 1 分行业 主要 产品 经营指标 单 位 经营数据 （2025 年 1-6 月） 经营数据 （2024 年 1-6 月） 比上年同期 增减（%） 煤焦行业 焦炭 （ 含 焦 粉 、 焦 粒） 营业收入 元 1,371,431.88 574,450,352.37 -99.76 营业成本 元 1,421,691.86 698,445,378.74 -99.80 生产量 吨 0 318,721.00 -100.00 销售量 吨 1,286.81 311,970.89 -99.59 库存量 吨 3,006.51 22,025.60 -86.35 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the document about the report industry investment rating. 2. Report's Core View - The macro - environment is generally favorable for commodities. Overseas, Powell's dovish signal strengthens the market's interest - rate cut expectation, and the July S&P Global Manufacturing PMI exceeds expectations. Domestically, although the July domestic demand data is still weak, the market's pessimistic expectation of deflation has changed. However, the fundamentals of both raw materials and finished products are weakening, which suppresses the upward movement of the market. Overall, the steel market is expected to show a range - bound pattern [3]. - The supply of iron ore first increases and then stabilizes. The high demand for hot metal is maintained, but the downstream terminal demand is weak, and the inventory is accumulating. The short - term supply of coking coal is relatively loose, and the premium retracement supports the iron ore price. In the short term, the iron ore price is expected to be mainly range - bound [18]. - The details of the "anti - involution" policy need time to be introduced, and the macro - sentiment may fluctuate. The far - month production of coking coal may be restricted by over - production inspections and the 276 - working - day policy. The current main contract has a large open interest, and the long - short game is intense. Attention should be paid to the performance of finished product demand in the peak season, the production changes of coking coal mines, and the implementation effect of macro - policies [30]. - Driven by profit, the production of ferroalloys is gradually increasing, reaching a high level in the same period of the past five years, with great supply pressure. With the production restrictions on some steel mills before the parade and no obvious improvement in demand, the ferroalloy inventory may change from destocking to stocking. The price of ferroalloys is affected by the price of coking coal, and in the long - term, the valuation trend of coking coal is upward, but the short - term fluctuation is intense [48]. - The supply of soda ash is expected to remain high, and normal maintenance continues. The demand for soda ash is expected to be weak, and the upper - middle stream inventory continues to reach a new high. The cost of raw salt and coal has increased. The pattern of strong supply and weak demand for soda ash remains unchanged [57]. - The near - end trading of glass returns to the industry. After Hubei reduces the price, the production and sales situation improves. The policy expectation fluctuates, and the market sentiment also fluctuates. The supply of glass is stable, and the cumulative apparent demand from January to August is estimated to decline by 7%. The mid - stream inventory is at a high level, and the spot negative feedback continues. Attention should be paid to policy guidance and short - term sentiment changes [83]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - **Macro and Fundamental Analysis**: Overseas macro - drivers are upward, and domestic deflation pessimism has changed. However, steel has a high - supply pressure with super - seasonal inventory accumulation. Raw material fundamentals are weakening, but the overall inventory of finished products is not high, and the total demand is acceptable. The market is expected to be range - bound [3]. - **Price Data**: On August 25, 2025, the closing prices of rebar 01, 05, and 10 contracts were 3224, 3261, and 3138 yuan/ton respectively; the closing prices of hot - rolled coil 01, 05, and 10 contracts were 3377, 3388, and 3389 yuan/ton respectively [4]. - **Spot Price and Basis**: The rebar summary price in China on August 25, 2025, was 3354 yuan/ton, and the 01 rebar basis in Shanghai was 86 yuan/ton. The hot - rolled coil summary price in Shanghai was 3430 yuan/ton, and the 01 hot - rolled coil basis in Shanghai was 53 yuan/ton [8]. Iron Ore - **Supply - Demand and Price Outlook**: Supply first increases and then stabilizes, demand for hot metal is high but terminal demand is weak with inventory accumulation. Coking coal supply supports the price. In the short term, the price is expected to be range - bound [18]. - **Price Data**: On August 25, 2025, the closing prices of iron ore 01, 05, and 09 contracts were 787, 763, and 806.5 yuan/ton respectively. The price of Rizhao PB powder was 780 yuan/ton [19]. - **Fundamental Data**: On August 22, 2025, the daily average hot - metal output was 240.75 tons, the 45 - port port clearance volume was 325.74 tons, and the 45 - port inventory was 13845.2 tons [24]. Coking Coal and Coke - **Market Analysis**: The "anti - involution" policy details are pending, and the macro - sentiment may fluctuate. The far - month production of coking coal may be restricted. The main contract has a large open interest, and the long - short game is intense. Attention should be paid to multiple factors [30]. - **Price and Basis Data**: On August 25, 2025, the coking coal warehouse - receipt cost in Tangshan (Meng 5) was 1128 yuan/ton, and the main - contract basis was - 88 yuan/ton. The coke warehouse - receipt cost in Rizhao Port (wet - quenched) was 1616 yuan/ton, and the main - contract basis was - 120.4 yuan/ton [35]. - **Spot Price and Profit**: The ex - factory price of Anze low - sulfur main coking coal was 1470 yuan/ton, and the immediate coking profit was 397 yuan/ton [36]. Ferroalloys - **Market Situation**: Driven by profit, production is increasing, with high supply pressure. With production restrictions on steel mills and no obvious demand improvement, inventory may change from destocking to stocking. The price is affected by coking coal [48]. - **Data of Ferrosilicon and Ferromanganese**: On August 25, 2025, the ferrosilicon basis in Ningxia was 8 yuan/ton, and the ferromanganese basis in Inner Mongolia was 268 yuan/ton [49][51]. Soda Ash - **Market Analysis**: Supply is expected to remain high, demand is weak, and the upper - middle stream inventory is at a new high. The cost of raw salt and coal has increased, and the pattern of strong supply and weak demand remains unchanged [57]. - **Price Data**: On August 25, 2025, the closing price of the soda ash 05 contract was 1393 yuan/ton, and the 5 - 9 month spread was 167 yuan/ton [58]. - **Spot Price**: The heavy - soda market price in North China was 1350 yuan/ton, and the heavy - soda to light - soda price difference was 100 yuan/ton [62]. Glass - **Market Analysis**: The near - end trading returns to the industry. After Hubei reduces the price, production and sales improve. Policy expectations and market sentiment fluctuate. Supply is stable, and the cumulative apparent demand from January to August is estimated to decline by 7%. The mid - stream inventory is high, and the spot negative feedback continues [83]. - **Price and Month - Spread Data**: On August 25, 2025, the closing price of the glass 05 contract was 1280 yuan/ton, and the 5 - 9 month spread was 281 yuan/ton [84]. - **Production and Sales Data**: On August 24, 2025, the production and sales rate in Shahe was 110%, and in Hubei was 131% [85].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - The overall demand for steel products is weak, with the inventory accumulation rate accelerating, and the steel mills' profit is gradually shrinking. If the demand fails to improve effectively, the price may continue to decline. Attention should be paid to the potential impact of safety inspections and environmental protection restrictions [3]. - For iron ore, although the supply pressure is not significant during the traditional shipping off - season, the contradiction between high hot metal production and weak terminal demand needs attention. The price is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term [6]. - For ferrous alloys, the prices are affected by emotions in the short term. It is not recommended for speculative funds to participate excessively. Hedging funds can seize opportunities according to their own situations. The fundamental problems of over - supply in manganese silicon and silicon iron still exist [10][11]. - For industrial silicon and polysilicon, industrial silicon is expected to fluctuate strongly, and polysilicon will maintain a pattern of "weak reality, strong expectation" and high - volatility operation [16][17]. - For glass and soda ash, glass is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term, and soda ash is expected to fluctuate. In the long term, the price center of soda ash may gradually rise, but the upward space is limited [19][20]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - **Market Quotes**: The closing price of the rebar main contract was 3119 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan/ton (- 0.06%) from the previous trading day. The closing price of the hot - rolled coil main contract was 3361 yuan/ton, down 14 yuan/ton (- 0.41%) [2]. - **Fundamentals**: Rebar production decreased significantly this week, demand had a slight recovery but remained weak, and inventory continued to accumulate. For hot - rolled coils, demand continued to rise, production increased rapidly, and inventory had increased for six consecutive weeks [3]. Iron Ore - **Market Quotes**: The main contract (I2601) closed at 770.00 yuan/ton, with a change of - 0.32% (- 2.50). The weighted position was 82.93 million hands. The spot price of PB powder at Qingdao Port was 767 yuan/wet ton, with a basis of 44.71 yuan/ton and a basis rate of 5.49% [5]. - **Fundamentals**: Overseas iron ore shipments and arrivals both increased. The daily average hot - metal output was 2.4075 million tons, basically unchanged from the previous period. Port inventory continued to rise slightly, and steel mills' imported ore inventory decreased slightly [6]. Ferrous Alloys - **Market Quotes**: On August 22, the manganese silicon main contract (SM601) closed down 0.10%, and the silicon iron main contract (SF511) closed up 0.07% [8][9]. - **Fundamentals**: The over - supply pattern of manganese silicon remained unchanged, and production continued to rise. There was no obvious contradiction in the fundamentals of silicon iron, and the supply also showed a continuous recovery trend [11]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Industrial Silicon** - **Market Quotes**: The closing price of the main contract (SI2511) was 8745 yuan/ton, up 1.27% (+ 110). The weighted contract position decreased by 5333 hands to 523742 hands [13]. - **Fundamentals**: The problems of over - capacity, high inventory, and insufficient effective demand remained. Production continued to rise, and the demand support for prices was limited [15][16]. - **Polysilicon** - **Market Quotes**: The closing price of the main contract (PS2511) was 51405 yuan/ton, down 0.24% (- 125). The weighted contract position decreased by 8014 hands to 327469 hands [16]. - **Fundamentals**: The production continued to increase, and the number of warehouse receipts increased rapidly. It maintained a pattern of "weak reality, strong expectation" [17]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Glass** - **Market Quotes**: The spot price in Shahe was 1147 yuan, and in Central China was 1060 yuan, both unchanged from the previous day [19]. - **Fundamentals**: Production remained high, inventory pressure increased slightly, and downstream real - estate demand did not improve significantly. It was expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term [19]. - **Soda Ash** - **Market Quotes**: The spot price was 1220 yuan, up 15 yuan from the previous day [20]. - **Fundamentals**: Supply decreased, inventory pressure increased, and downstream demand was difficult to improve quickly. It was expected to fluctuate in the short term, and the price center might gradually rise in the long term [20].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The steel market has increasing supply and demand, with rising total inventory. The fundamentals of steel and raw materials are weakening, but market expectations remain positive, and the price is expected to be volatile and weak [3]. - The iron ore price is relatively firm, and it is expected to be stronger than the steel price in the short - term, with prices fluctuating within a smaller range [20]. - The coal - coke market may fluctuate widely with market sentiment. In the future, it may return to the fundamental logic, and attention should be paid to the change in finished product inventory [30]. - The ferroalloy market has high supply pressure, and there is a possibility of inventory accumulation and price decline. Its price is affected by the volatile coking coal price [46]. - The soda ash market has a pattern of strong supply and weak demand, and attention should be paid to the price fluctuations of coal and raw salt on the cost side [60]. - The glass market is in a weak balance, with high intermediate inventory and weak production and sales. Attention should be paid to policy guidance and short - term emotional changes [87]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Steel - **Market Situation**: This week, the supply and demand of the five major steel products both increased, and the total inventory continued to accumulate. The de - stocking pressure on the finished product side is prominent. The fundamentals of raw materials are also weakening [3]. - **Price Data**: On August 22, 2025, the closing prices of steel futures contracts such as rebar and hot - rolled coil changed compared with the previous day. For example, the rebar 01 contract closed at 3195 yuan/ton, down from 3200 yuan/ton the previous day [4]. Iron Ore - **Market Situation**: The iron ore price is relatively firm in the black market. The price rebound space is limited due to the lack of strong demand or policy drivers. It is expected to be stronger than the steel price in the short - term and fluctuate within a smaller range [20]. - **Price Data**: On August 22, 2025, the closing price of the iron ore 01 contract was 770 yuan/ton, down 2.5 yuan/ton from the previous day [21]. - **Fundamental Data**: On August 22, 2025, the daily average pig iron output was 240.75 tons, with a weekly increase of 0.09 tons. The 45 - port inventory was 13845.2 tons, with a weekly increase of 25.93 tons [24]. Coal - Coke - **Market Situation**: The short - term speculative sentiment in the market has cooled down, but the macro - sentiment may fluctuate widely. In the future, it may return to the fundamental logic, and attention should be paid to the change in finished product inventory [30]. - **Price Data**: On August 22, 2025, the coking coal warehouse receipt cost (Tangshan Mongolian 5) was 1128 yuan/ton, with no daily change and a weekly increase of 120 yuan/ton [36]. Ferroalloy - **Market Situation**: Driven by profits, the ferroalloy output is increasing, with high supply pressure. There is a possibility of inventory accumulation and price decline, and its price is affected by the coking coal price [46]. - **Price Data**: On August 22, 2025, the silicon - iron basis in Ningxia was 8 yuan/ton, down 34 yuan/ton from the previous day [47]. Soda Ash - **Market Situation**: The supply of soda ash remains high, the rigid demand is weak, and the upper - middle stream inventory continues to reach new highs. The cost has increased slightly, and the pattern of strong supply and weak demand remains unchanged [60]. - **Price Data**: On August 22, 2025, the soda ash 05 contract closed at 1379 yuan/ton, up 17 yuan/ton from the previous day, with a daily increase of 1.25% [61]. Glass - **Market Situation**: The glass market is in a weak balance, with high intermediate inventory and weak production and sales. The near - end spot is under obvious pressure, and attention should be paid to policy guidance and short - term emotional changes [87]. - **Price Data**: On August 22, 2025, the glass 05 contract closed at 1269 yuan/ton, up 17 yuan/ton from the previous day, with a daily increase of 1.36% [88].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views The reports present a comprehensive overview of various financial markets, including stock index futures, treasury bond futures, precious metals, container shipping, and provide schedules of economic data releases. Each section details the latest market data, price changes, and relevant indicators, offering insights for investors to assess market trends and potential investment opportunities. Summary by Directory Stock Index Futures Spread Daily Report - The F spot-futures spread is -1.40, with a change of 5.78 from the previous day, and a 1-year historical percentile of 58.30%. Other spreads such as H spot-futures spread, IC and IM inter - period spreads also show different values and changes [1]. - Cross - variety ratios like CSI 500/SSE 300, CSI 200/CSI 50, etc., have their own latest values, changes, and historical percentiles [1]. Treasury Bond Futures Spread Daily Report - For basis, the TS basis has an IRR of 1.2502, a latest value of 0.0243, and a change of - 0.0023 from the previous day, with a percentile of 11.20% since listing. Similar data is provided for TF, T, and TL basis [2]. - Inter - period spreads for TS, TF, T, and TL show different values and changes, as well as their respective historical percentiles [2]. - Cross - variety spreads such as TS - TF, TS - T, etc., also have corresponding values, changes, and historical percentiles [2]. Precious Metals Spot - Futures Daily Report - Domestic futures closing prices: The AU2510 contract closed at 772.68 yuan/gram, down 2.38 yuan (-0.31%) from the previous day; the AG2510 contract closed at 9042 yuan/kg, down 145 yuan (-1.58%) [6]. - Foreign futures closing prices: The COMEX gold main contract closed at 3392.20 US dollars/ounce, up 33.30 dollars (0.99%); the COMEX silver main contract closed at 37.90 US dollars/ounce, up 0.57 dollars (1.51%) [6]. - Spot prices: London gold was at 3347.34 US dollars/ounce, up 31.82 dollars (0.96%); London silver was at 37.86 US dollars/ounce, up 0.48 dollars (1.28%) [6]. - Basis, price ratios, interest rates, exchange rates, inventory, and position data are also provided [6]. Container Shipping Industry Spot - Futures Daily Report - Spot quotes: MAERSK's Shanghai - Europe freight rate was 2364 US dollars/FEU, up 6 dollars (0.25%); CMA CGM's was 2913 US dollars/FEU, up 34 dollars (1.18%), etc. [8]. - Shipping indices: The SCFIS (European route) settlement price index was 2180.17, down 55.3 (-2.47%); the SCFIS (US West route) was 1106.29, up 24.1 (2.23%) [8]. - Futures prices and basis: The EC2602 contract was at 1532.0, down 3.4 (-0.22%); the basis of the main contract was 700.2, down 43.0 (-5.79%) [8]. - Fundamental data: Global container shipping capacity supply remained unchanged at 3289.97 FTEU; Shanghai port on - time rate was 32.58, down 1.99 (-5.76%) [8]. Overseas and Domestic Data/Information Report - Overseas data includes economic indicators such as eurozone 8 - month manufacturing PMI, consumer confidence index, and US initial jobless claims, etc. [9]. - Domestic data includes steel production, inventory, and utilization rate, as well as various commodity data such as coal, coke, and lithium carbonate [10].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - As the Politburo meeting concludes and the sentiment related to "anti - involution" cools down, the market sentiment becomes rational, and the futures price trend weakens. If the subsequent demand cannot be effectively repaired, the steel price may not maintain the current level, and the futures price may gradually return to the supply - demand logic. It is recommended to continuously monitor the recovery progress of terminal actual demand and the support of the cost side for the finished product price [3]. - In the short term, the iron ore price may be slightly adjusted. Attention should be paid to whether the contradiction between high hot metal production and terminal demand will further intensify. Also, follow - up actions of blast furnace enterprises regarding the production suspension of Tangshan independent rolling enterprises need to be monitored [6]. - In the short - term market environment controlled by emotions, it is not recommended for speculative funds to participate excessively, and it is advisable to wait and see. Hedging funds can seize hedging opportunities according to their own situations but should control margin (cash flow) safety [10]. - It is expected that the industrial silicon price will fluctuate weakly, with support at 8000 yuan/ton. The polysilicon price is expected to fluctuate widely, with support levels at 47000 and 44000 yuan/ton respectively [14][16]. - In the short term, it is expected that glass and soda ash will fluctuate. In the long term, glass prices will fluctuate with macro - sentiment, and soda ash prices are expected to gradually increase in the price center, but their upward space is limited [18][19]. Summary by Category Steel - **Price and Position Data**: The closing price of the rebar main contract was 3188 yuan/ton, down 1 yuan/ton (- 0.03%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts were 119412 tons, a month - on - month increase of 10357 tons. The main contract position was 1.617947 million lots, a month - on - month decrease of 18597 lots. The closing price of the hot - rolled coil main contract was 3439 yuan/ton, up 7 yuan/ton (0.203%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts were 78386 tons, with no month - on - month change. The main contract position was 1.255562 million lots, a month - on - month decrease of 36269 lots [2]. - **Market Situation**: The export volume declined slightly this week, and the overall export remained weak. Rebar demand decreased significantly this week, production was basically the same as last week, and the inventory accumulation speed increased. Hot - rolled coil demand recovered significantly, production was basically the same as last week, and the inventory accumulation speed slowed down. Currently, both rebar and hot - rolled coil inventories are on the rise marginally, steel mill profits are good, and production remains high, but the demand side's carrying capacity is obviously insufficient [3]. Iron Ore - **Price and Position Data**: The main iron ore contract (I2601) closed at 776.00 yuan/ton, with a change of + 0.13% (+ 1.00), and the position changed by - 4631 lots to 447,300 lots. The weighted position of iron ore was 895,300 lots. The spot price of PB fines at Qingdao Port was 772 yuan/wet ton, with a basis of 44.22 yuan/ton and a basis rate of 5.39% [5]. - **Market Situation**: The overseas iron ore shipment volume and arrival volume both decreased in the latest period. The daily average hot metal production increased by 0.34 tons to 240.66 tons. Port inventories increased slightly, and the increase in steel mill imported ore inventories was more obvious. The apparent demand for the five major steel products continued to weaken, and the decline in rebar consumption data was significant [6]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - **Price and Position Data**: On August 15, the main manganese silicon contract (SM509) fluctuated weakly, closing down 0.40% at 6026 yuan/ton. The main ferrosilicon contract (SF509) closed up 0.17% at 5754 yuan/ton [8]. - **Market Situation**: The market for "anti - involution" trading still disturbs the market, and relevant emotional disturbances will continue to affect the market. The over - supply situation of manganese silicon has not changed, and its production has shown an upward trend recently. It is expected that in the future, the demand for ferrosilicon, manganese silicon, or the entire black sector will likely weaken marginally [10][11]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Price and Position Data**: The main industrial silicon contract (SI2511) closed at 8805 yuan/ton, up 1.50% (+ 130). The weighted contract position changed by - 3135 lots to 531,988 lots. The main polysilicon contract (PS2511) closed at 52740 yuan/ton, up 4.58% (+ 2310). The weighted contract position changed by + 12752 lots to 322,861 lots [13][15]. - **Market Situation**: The over - capacity, high inventory, and insufficient effective demand of industrial silicon have not fundamentally changed. The production of polysilicon has increased week - on - week, and inventory depletion is limited. The polysilicon market is in a weak supply - demand situation [14][16]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Price and Inventory Data**: The spot price of glass in Shahe was 1164 yuan, unchanged from the previous day, and in Central China, it was 1090 yuan, down 30 yuan from the previous day. As of August 14, 2025, the total inventory of national float glass sample enterprises was 63.426 million heavy boxes, a month - on - month increase of 1.579 million heavy boxes (+ 2.55%), and a year - on - year decrease of 5.94%. The spot price of soda ash was 1280 yuan, unchanged from the previous day. As of August 14, 2025, the total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers was 1.8938 million tons, an increase of 17,600 tons from Monday, with a growth rate of 0.94% [18][19]. - **Market Situation**: Glass prices have significantly corrected with the cooling of market sentiment, and the current market sentiment has been basically digested. Soda ash prices fluctuate widely with the coal - chemical sector. In the short - term, both are expected to fluctuate [18][19].