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《黑色》日报-20251231
Guang Fa Qi Huo· 2025-12-31 01:26
1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are mentioned in the reports [1][3][6][7][8] 2. Core Views of the Reports Steel Industry - Yesterday's steel prices remained stable. Steel production continued to decrease and inventories declined. There was a large supply - demand gap for rebar, with good inventory reduction, while hot - rolled coil inventory reduction was still slow. Seasonal decline in apparent demand led to weak demand. Although production cuts and strong raw materials supported steel prices to repair upwards from low levels, the weak demand limited the upward drive. Rebar price fluctuations were expected to be in the 3000 - 3200 range, and hot - rolled coil in the 3150 - 3350 range. It was recommended to wait and see for unilateral operations [1] Iron Ore Industry - Yesterday, the 09 iron ore contract fluctuated. In terms of fundamentals, the supply side was in the shipping peak season, with some mines ramping up production at the end of the year. Although the arrival volume decreased slightly, it was still at a high level in the same period of history. Based on shipping calculations, the arrival volume would remain high in the next two weeks, but it would enter the off - season in the first quarter of next year, and the impact of weather on supply needed attention. On the demand side, the molten iron output remained flat week - on - week, at a historically low level. Some steel mills resumed production, while others were under maintenance. The profitability of steel mills improved, but due to the off - season and many overhauls, the subsequent resumption of production was expected to be limited. In terms of inventory, iron ore inventory was at a high level in the same period, and it would continue to accumulate due to high future arrival volumes and low off - port volume in the off - season. Although the short - term resumption of molten iron production was limited, winter storage and pre - festival restocking might support the ore price. In the future, iron ore would transition from a supply - demand surplus to a supply - demand weakness. The price was capped by high inventory, and the demand could not absorb the supply increase when priced above $110 in the off - season. There was support from the restocking expectation of steel mills with low inventory. In the short term, the focus was on the molten iron trend and the restocking rhythm of steel mills, and in the long term, on the negotiation situation. It was expected that the iron ore price would fluctuate strongly. Short - term operations were recommended, with the reference range of 770 - 840 [3] Coke Industry - Yesterday, the coke futures rebounded in a fluctuating manner. On the spot side, the third round of price cuts for coke was implemented on December 22, and the fourth round was launched on the 29th. The port price fell in advance and was currently stable with a weak trend. On the supply side, the coking coal prices in the Shanxi market showed mixed trends, and the auction prices of various coal types showed signs of bottom - rebounding. Coke price adjustment lagged behind coking coal, squeezing the coking profit and reducing the start - up rate. On the demand side, steel mills increased maintenance due to losses, molten iron output declined, and steel prices fluctuated at a low level, with the intention to suppress coke prices. In terms of inventory, ports, steel mills, and coking plants all increased their inventories, and the overall inventory increased slightly. Coke supply - demand weakened. The coke futures fell in advance, and the spot price decline referred to the coking coal decline space. For strategies, after three rounds of spot price cuts, the basis weakened, and the expected - driven rebound was difficult to sustain. It was recommended to short the coke 2605 contract on rallies, and pay attention to the strategy of going long on coking coal and short on coke for arbitrage [6] Coking Coal Industry - Yesterday, the coking coal futures rebounded in a fluctuating manner. On the spot side, the auction prices of Shanxi coking coal turned to a mixed trend, Mongolian coal quotes fluctuated with futures, the auction failure rate rebounded again recently, and traders were cautious about restocking. The thermal coal market continued to decline. On the supply side, near the end of the year, coking coal production might continue to decline; for imported coal, the port inventory was at a high level at the end of the year, and mines carried out shipping volume ramping up. On the demand side, steel mill losses and maintenance decreased, and molten iron output remained stable, but the coking profit declined, the daily output of coking plants decreased slightly, and the market's restocking demand weakened. In terms of inventory, coal washing plants, coke enterprises, mines, ports, steel mills, and ports all increased their inventories, and the overall inventory increased slightly. The policy focused on ensuring the long - term coal supply for power plants. For strategies, the rebound expectation was over - priced in advance. Unilateral operations were recommended to short on rallies, and pay attention to the strategy of going long on coking coal and short on coke for arbitrage [7] Ferrosilicon and Ferromanganese Industry - Ferrosilicon: Yesterday, the ferrosilicon price continued to be strong, breaking through the previous pressure level, and the spot market was also strong, with discussions about capacity elimination in Shaanxi. On the supply side, this week's ferrosilicon production continued to decline, but the decline narrowed compared with the previous period. The production cuts were mainly concentrated in Shaanxi and Gansu, while production in Inner Mongolia and Qinghai increased slightly. In terms of steel - making demand, the molten iron output was basically flat week - on - week, with some steel mills under maintenance and some resuming production. With more large - scale overhauls and weak demand, the molten iron output was expected to remain stable in the short term, and the steel - making demand would be stable. In terms of non - steel demand, downstream restocking increased near the end of the month, but the downstream acceptance of high prices was poor. In terms of exports, overseas inquiries and transactions were okay near Christmas, but the acceptance of high prices was insufficient, and there were still impacts from the re - export trade of Russia and North Korea. On the cost side, the semi - coke price decreased slightly, and low - cost power regions had an advantage. Looking forward, the supply - demand contradiction of ferrosilicon still needed to be alleviated, but the production cut expectation was priced in. The improvement expectation of the demand side was insufficient, and the price lacked upward momentum. Attention should be paid to the expectation change and the semi - coke price. In the short term, the price was expected to fluctuate within the range of 5650 - 5900 [8] - Ferromanganese: Recently, ferromanganese was strongly running, and the spot market was stable. On the supply side, the production increased slightly, and the supply remained at a normal level in the same period of history. Recently, new capacities in Inner Mongolia were released, and the short - term production still had room for growth. There were rumors of production cuts in Guangxi and Guizhou, but they were not implemented. In terms of steel - making demand, the molten iron output was basically flat week - on - week, with some steel mills under maintenance and some resuming production. With more large - scale overhauls and weak demand, the molten iron output was expected to remain stable in the short term, and the steel - making demand would be stable. The price - pressing sentiment of steel mills in the copper - aluminum industry was strong. In terms of inventory, the factory inventory remained at a high level, and the inflection point had not appeared, and the supply - demand contradiction still existed. On the cost side, the manganese ore price was stable, and some overseas mines raised their January quotes. The low - inventory situation supported the ore price. Overall, ferromanganese was in a state of self - supply surplus but relatively balanced in the whole market. The manganese ore supported the ferromanganese price, and the key was the production cut amplitude and the end - year winter storage restocking expectation of steel mills. The short - term supply - demand contradiction was priced in, and there was no clear trend - reversal signal. It was expected that the price would fluctuate downward. The strategy was mainly range - trading, with the reference range of 5700 - 6000 [8] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Steel Industry Steel Prices and Spreads - Rebar spot prices in East China, North China, and South China remained unchanged at 3300 yuan/ton, 3170 yuan/ton, and 3260 yuan/ton respectively. Rebar futures contracts 05, 10, and 01 increased by 4 yuan/ton, 1 yuan/ton, and 7 yuan/ton respectively. Hot - rolled coil spot prices in East China and South China remained unchanged, while the North China price increased by 10 yuan/ton. Hot - rolled coil futures contracts 05, 10, and 01 decreased by 5 yuan/ton, 5 yuan/ton, and 3 yuan/ton respectively [1] Cost and Profit - The billet price remained unchanged at 2940 yuan/ton, and the slab price remained at 3730 yuan/ton. The cost of Jiangsu electric - furnace rebar decreased by 1 yuan/ton to 3209 yuan/ton, and the profit of East China hot - rolled coil increased by 10 yuan/ton to - 12 yuan/ton [1] Production - The daily average molten iron output decreased slightly by 0.1 to 226.5 tons, with no significant change. The output of five major steel products decreased by 1.1 tons to 796.8 tons. Rebar production increased by 2.7 tons to 184.4 tons, and hot - rolled coil production increased by 1.6 tons to 293.5 tons [1] Inventory - The inventory of five major steel products decreased by 36.8 tons to 1258.0 tons, rebar inventory decreased by 18.3 tons to 434.3 tons, and hot - rolled coil inventory decreased by 13.5 tons to 377.2 tons [1] Transaction and Demand - The building materials trading volume decreased by 2.5 to 11.3, a decrease of 20.8%. The apparent demand of five major steel products decreased by 1.7 to 833.6 tons, rebar apparent demand decreased by 6.0 to 202.7 tons, and hot - rolled coil apparent demand increased by 8.8 to 307.0 tons [1] Iron Ore Industry Iron Ore - Related Prices and Spreads - The warehouse - receipt costs of different iron ore powders showed different trends. The 05 - contract basis of some iron ore powders increased, and the 5 - 9 spread decreased by 1.0 to 22.0, while the 1 - 5 spread increased by 0.5 to 20.0 [3] Spot Prices and Price Indexes - The spot prices of some iron ore powders at Rizhao Port decreased, and the Singapore Exchange 62% Fe swaps remained unchanged, while the Platts 62% Fe increased by 1.0 to 107.9 [3] Supply - The 45 - port arrival volume decreased by 76.7 tons to 2646.7 tons, the global shipping volume decreased by 128.0 tons to 3464.5 tons, and the national monthly import volume decreased by 74.7 tons to 11054.0 tons [3] Demand - The 247 - steel - mill daily average molten iron output remained unchanged at 226.6 tons, the 45 - port daily average off - port volume increased by 1.6 to 315.1 tons, the national monthly pig iron output decreased by 320.6 tons to 6234.3 tons, and the national monthly crude steel output decreased by 212.6 tons to 6987.1 tons [3] Inventory Changes - The 45 - port inventory increased by 176.2 tons to 15858.66 tons, the 247 - steel - mill imported ore inventory increased by 136.2 tons to 8860.2 tons, and the inventory available days of 64 steel mills decreased by 2.0 to 19.0 [3] Coke Industry Coke - Related Prices and Spreads - The prices of Shanxi and Rizhao Port quasi - first - grade wet - quenched coke remained unchanged. The coke 01 contract decreased by 6, and the 05 contract increased by 35. The coking profit decreased by 11 [6] Upstream Coking Coal Prices and Spreads - The coking coal (Shanxi warehouse - receipt) price remained unchanged at 1230 yuan/ton, and the coking coal (Mongolian coal warehouse - receipt) price increased by 5 to 1159 yuan/ton [6] Supply - The daily average output of all - sample coking plants decreased by 0.3 to 62.7 tons, and the 247 - steel - mill daily average output increased by 0.3 to 46.8 tons [6] Demand - The 247 - steel - mill molten iron output remained unchanged at 226.6 tons [6] Inventory Changes - The total coke inventory increased by 12.2 tons to 912.6 tons, the all - sample coking plant coke inventory increased by 1.1 tons to 92.2 tons, the 247 - steel - mill coke inventory increased by 8.5 tons to 642.2 tons, and the port inventory increased by 2.5 tons to 178.2 tons [6] Supply - Demand Gap Changes - The coke supply - demand gap remained at - 0.2 tons [6] Coking Coal Industry Coking Coal - Related Prices and Spreads - The price of Shanxi medium - sulfur main - coking coal (warehouse - receipt) remained unchanged at 1230 yuan/ton, and the Mongolian 5 raw coal (warehouse - receipt) price increased by 5 to 1159 yuan/ton. The coking coal 01 contract increased by 35, and the 05 contract increased by 32. The sample coal mine profit decreased by 1 [7] Overseas Coal Prices - The Australian Peak Downs coking coal arrival price remained unchanged at 230 US dollars/ton, the Jingtang Port Australian main - coking coal ex - warehouse price increased by 20 to 1560 yuan/ton, and the Guangzhou Port Australian thermal coal ex - warehouse price decreased by 1.9 to 698 yuan/ton [7] Supply - The raw coal output decreased by 2.7 tons to 853.4 tons, and the clean coal output decreased by 0.6 tons to 438.2 tons [7] Demand - The all - sample coking plant daily average output decreased by 0.3 to 62.7 tons, and the 247 - steel - mill daily average output increased by 0.3 to 46.8 tons [7] Inventory Changes - The Fenwei coal mine clean coal inventory increased by 1.7 tons to 134.9 tons, the all - sample coking plant coking coal inventory increased by 3.4 tons to 1039.7 tons, the 247 - steel - mill coking coal inventory increased by 1.7 tons to 806.7 tons, and the port inventory increased by 13.3 tons to 299.5 tons [7] Ferrosilicon and Ferromanganese Industry Spot Prices and Spreads - Ferrosilicon: The spot prices in different regions increased to varying degrees, and the main - contract closing price increased by 74 to 5676 yuan/ton. Ferromanganese: The spot prices in different regions also increased, and the main - contract closing price increased by 80 to 5862 yuan/ton [8] Cost and Profit - Ferrosilicon: The production cost in Inner Mongolia increased slightly, and the production profit increased. Ferromanganese: The manganese ore prices in Tianjin Port remained stable, and the production costs in different regions remained unchanged [8] Manganese Ore Supply - The manganese ore shipping volume increased by 15 to 85.2 tons, the arrival volume increased by 2.5 to 40.8 tons, and the off - port volume decreased by 3.5 to 55.7 tons [8] Supply - Ferrosilicon: The production decreased slightly, and the production enterprise start - up rate decreased. Ferromanganese: The start - up rate increased, and the production increased [8] Demand - The 247 - steel - mill daily average molten iron output remained unchanged at 226.6 tons, the five - major - steel - product output decreased by 1.1 tons to 796.8 tons, the ferrosilicon demand remained unchanged at 1.8 tons, and the ferromanganese demand increased by 0.0 to 11.3 tons [8] Inventory Changes - Ferrosilicon: The inventory of 60 sample enterprises decreased by 0.2 tons to 6.4 tons, and the average available days decreased by 0.4 to 15.4 days. Ferromanganese: The inventory of 63 sample enterprises increased by 0.1 tons to 38.6 tons, and the average available days increased by 0.1 to 16 days [8]
铁矿石早报-20251231
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-12-31 01:14
1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints - Not provided in the given content 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Spot Market Data - **Australian Mainstream Iron Ore**: Newman powder price is 798, down 3 daily and up 11 weekly; PB powder price is 801, down 3 daily and up 11 weekly; Mac powder price is 803, up 1 daily and up 19 weekly; Jinbuba powder price is 754, down 3 daily and up 11 weekly; Mixed powder price is 740, down 5 daily and up 7 weekly; Super special powder price is 680, unchanged daily and up 8 weekly; Carajás powder price is 885, down 7 daily and up 15 weekly; Roy Hill powder price is 788, down 3 daily and up 11 weekly; KUMBA powder price is 860, down 3 daily and up 11 weekly [1] - **Brazilian Mainstream Iron Ore**: Brazilian mixed ore price is 851, up 11 daily and up 26 weekly; Brazilian coarse IOC6 price is 765, down 3 daily and up 11 weekly; Brazilian coarse SSFG price is 770, down 3 daily and up 11 weekly [1] - **Other Iron Ore**: Ukrainian concentrate powder price is 877, down 5 daily and up 2 weekly; 61% Indian powder price is 743, down 3 daily and up 11 weekly; Karara concentrate powder price is 882, down 5 daily and up 7 weekly; 57% Indian powder price is 615, unchanged daily and up 8 weekly; Atlas powder price is 735, down 5 daily and up 7 weekly; Tangshan iron concentrate powder price is 982, unchanged daily and up 6 weekly [1] Futures Market Data - **Dalian Commodity Exchange Contracts**: i2601 contract price is 809.0, down 7.0 daily and up 12.5 weekly; i2605 contract price is 789.0, down 7.5 daily and up 10.5 weekly; i2609 contract price is 767.0, down 6.5 daily and up 10.5 weekly [1] - **Singapore Exchange Contracts**: FE01 contract price is 105.83, up 1.16 daily and up 1.07 weekly; FE05 contract price is 104.17, up 1.15 daily and up 1.36 weekly; FE09 contract price is 102.16, up 1.14 daily and up 1.41 weekly [1] Other Data - **Import Profit**: Newman powder import profit is 20.28; PB powder import profit is - 14.00; Mac powder import profit is 52.72; Jinbuba powder import profit is 37.44; Mixed powder import profit is 4.61; Super special powder import profit is - 10.63; Carajás powder import profit is - 26.66; Brazilian mixed ore import profit is 13.52 [1] - **Month - to - Month Spread**: i2601/i2605 spread is - 42.0, up 10.1 daily and up 3.7 weekly; i2605/i2609 spread is 20.0, up 30.1 daily and up 5.7 weekly; i2609/i2601 spread is 22.0, up 52.1 daily and up 5.7 weekly; FE01/FE05 spread is - 3.67, down 21.9 daily and up 5.3 weekly; FE05/FE09 spread is 1.66, down 28.2 daily and up 7.8 weekly; FE09/FE01 spread is 2.01, down 35.3 daily and up 5.4 weekly [1]
铁矿日报:港口库存往下游转移,年底补库博弈较强-20251230
Guan Tong Qi Huo· 2025-12-30 11:03
【冠通期货研究报告】 铁矿日报:港口库存往下游转移,年底补库博弈较强 发布日期:2025 年 12 月 30 日 一、市场行情态势回顾 1、期货价格:铁矿石期货主力合约日内震荡小幅回落,收于 789 元/吨,较 前一个交易日收盘价上涨-7.5 元/吨,跌幅-0.94%,成交 29.7 万手,持仓量 61.4 万手减持 1.6 万手,沉淀资金 106.51 亿。盘面价格虽有回调,整体仍然呈现偏 强态势。 2、现货价格:港口现货主流品种青岛港 PB 粉 807 涨 3,超特粉 692 涨 3, 掉期主力 105.85(+1.68)美元/吨。现货小幅走强,掉期价格向上突破仍显偏强。 3、基差价差端:青岛港 PB 粉折盘面价格 846.7 元/吨,基差 57.7 元/吨, 基差再度走扩;铁矿 1-5 价差 20 元,铁矿 5-9 价差 22 元,铁矿期货合约呈现 back 结构+正基差,期货下方存在一定支撑,延续逐步走强态势。 二、基本面梳理 供应端相对稳定,关注一季度天气扰动;需求端样本铁水逐渐企稳,当前钢 厂补库意愿仍较弱,1 月份高炉有复产预期,关注节前铁水恢复高度和补库需求 释放节奏。库存方面,港口库存继续累 ...
银河期货铁矿石日报-20251230
Yin He Qi Huo· 2025-12-30 10:11
Report Information - Report Name: Iron Ore Daily Report - Date: December 30, 2025 - Industry: Iron Ore Report Highlights Futures Market - DCE01 closed at 809.0, down 7.0 from the previous day [2] - DCE05 closed at 789.0, down 7.5 from the previous day [2] - DCE09 closed at 767.0, down 6.5 from the previous day [2] Spot Market - PB powder (60.8%) price increased by 7 to 800 [2] - Newman powder price increased by 7 to 802 [2] - Macarthur powder price increased by 7 to 802 [2] Spread - I01 - I05 spread was 20.0, up 0.5 from the previous day [2] - I05 - I09 spread was 22.0, down 1.0 from the previous day [2] - I09 - I01 spread was -42.0, up 0.5 from the previous day [2] Import Profit - Carajás fines import profit increased by 11 to -14 [2] - Newman powder import profit decreased by 1 to 53 [2] - PB powder import profit decreased by 1 to 3 [2] Index - Platts 62% iron ore price increased by 1.0 to 108.9 [2] - Platts 65% iron ore price increased by 1.0 to 121.9 [2] - Platts 58% iron ore price increased by 1.1 to 94.7 [2] Price Difference - Carajás fines - PB powder price difference increased by 11 to 88 [2] - Newman powder - Jinbuba powder price difference remained unchanged at 45 [2] - Carajás fines - Jinbuba powder price difference increased by 11 to 135 [2] Base Difference - The optimal deliverable - 01 contract base difference was 16 for Carajás fines [2] - The optimal deliverable - 05 contract base difference was 35 for Carajás fines [2] - The optimal deliverable - 09 contract base difference was 58 for Carajás fines [2] Inner-Outer Spread - SGX main - DCE01 spread was 0.4, up 0.8 from the previous day [2] - SGX main - DCE05 spread was 2.9, up 1.0 from the previous day [2] - SGX main - DCE09 spread was 5.9, up 1.1 from the previous day [2]
原料补库预期,钢价震荡运行
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-12-30 03:37
黑色建材日报 | 2025-12-30 原料补库预期,钢价震荡运行 钢材:原料补库预期,钢价震荡运行 市场分析 昨日螺纹钢期货主力合约收于3130元/吨,热卷主力合约收于3287元/吨。现货方面,昨日钢材现货成交整体一般, 上午涨价过程中低价拿货好转,投机情绪增加,午后盘面回落,成交转弱,但依然挺价为主,全天基差先缩后扩。 全国建材成交11.77万吨。 供需与逻辑:建材供需基本面暂无矛盾,保持低产量,低消费,低库存状态。板材依旧受制于高库存压制,价格 边际波动有限,短期市场原料补库预期开启,建材基本面矛盾不足,关注环保及季节性减产情况、需求去库变化、 利润状况、成本支撑、原料补库、钢材出口及国内政策。 宏观政策、成材产销情况、钢材出口、钢厂利润、成本支撑等。 铁矿:市场情绪缓解,矿价小幅上涨 市场分析 期现货方面:昨日铁矿石期货价格震荡运行,最终铁矿石2605合约收盘796.5元/吨;现货方面,报价整体小幅上涨、 成交一般,贸易商报盘积极性一般,钢厂维持按需补库,采购价格多随行就市。 策略 单边:震荡 跨期:无 跨品种:无 期现:无 期权:无 风险 供需与逻辑:供需格局持续趋紧,港口库存显著增加,但下游采购需 ...
《黑色》日报-20251230
Guang Fa Qi Huo· 2025-12-30 02:46
Report Industry Investment Ratings - No relevant information provided. Core Views Steel Industry - Steel prices are supported by production cuts and strong raw materials but lack upward momentum due to weak demand. The price range for rebar is expected to be between 3000 - 3200, and for hot-rolled coils between 3150 - 3350. It is recommended to wait and see for unilateral operations and avoid going long on the rebar-iron ore ratio [1]. Iron Ore Industry - Iron ore prices are expected to fluctuate strongly. The supply will remain high in the short term, but the demand is limited. The price range is expected to be between 770 - 840. Short-term long positions can be attempted [4]. Coke Industry - Coke supply and demand have weakened. It is recommended to short the coke 2605 contract on rallies and consider the strategy of longing coking coal and shorting coke [7]. Coking Coal Industry - Coking coal prices are expected to decline. It is recommended to short on rallies and consider the strategy of longing coking coal and shorting coke [8]. Ferrosilicon and Ferromanganese Industry - Ferrosilicon supply and demand contradictions still exist, and prices are expected to be weak. It is recommended to short when the price rebounds above the Ningxia production cost [9]. Summary by Directory Steel Industry Steel Prices and Spreads - Rebar and hot-rolled coil spot and futures prices in different regions showed varying degrees of increase or decrease. For example, the rebar spot price in East China increased from 3290 to 3300 yuan/ton [1]. Cost and Profit - Steel billet and slab prices remained unchanged, while the cost and profit of different steel products showed different trends. For example, the cost of Jiangsu electric furnace rebar decreased by 17 yuan/ton, and the profit of East China hot-rolled coils decreased by 16 yuan/ton [1]. Production and Inventory - The daily average pig iron output decreased slightly, and the production of five major steel products decreased slightly. The inventory of five major steel products decreased by 2.8%, and the rebar inventory decreased by 4.0% [1]. Transaction and Demand - The building materials trading volume increased by 19.8%, the apparent demand for five major steel products decreased by 0.2%, the apparent demand for rebar decreased by 2.9%, and the apparent demand for hot-rolled coils increased by 2.9% [1]. Iron Ore Industry Iron Ore Prices and Spreads - The warehouse receipt costs of various iron ore varieties increased, and the basis of some varieties decreased. The 5 - 9 and 1 - 5 spreads increased [4]. Supply - The arrival volume at 45 ports decreased by 2.8%, the global shipping volume decreased by 3.6%, and the national monthly import volume decreased by 0.7% [4]. Demand - The daily average pig iron output of 247 steel mills remained unchanged, the daily average port clearance volume at 45 ports increased by 0.5%, the national monthly pig iron output decreased by 4.9%, and the national monthly crude steel output decreased by 3.0% [4]. Inventory Changes - The inventory at 45 ports increased by 1.1%, the imported iron ore inventory of 247 steel mills increased by 1.6%, and the available days of inventory for 64 steel mills decreased by 9.5% [4]. Coke Industry Coke Prices and Spreads - The prices of Shanxi and Rizhao Port quasi - first - class wet - quenched coke decreased, and the coke futures prices also decreased. The coking profit decreased [7]. Supply - The weekly coke production decreased slightly [7]. Demand - The pig iron output remained unchanged, and the steel mills' willingness to suppress coke prices increased [7]. Inventory - The total coke inventory increased by 1.4%, and the inventories of ports, steel mills, and coking plants all increased [7]. Coking Coal Industry Coking Coal Prices and Spreads - The prices of Shanxi medium - sulfur main coking coal and Mongolian 5 raw coal decreased slightly, and the coking coal futures prices decreased [8]. Supply - The weekly production of raw coal and clean coal decreased slightly, and the coal mine inventory increased [8]. Demand - The pig iron output remained stable, the coking profit decreased, and the coking plant's production decreased slightly [8]. Inventory - The inventories of washing plants, coking enterprises, coal mines, ports, steel mills, and ports all increased [8]. Ferrosilicon and Ferromanganese Industry Spot Prices and Spreads - The closing prices of ferrosilicon and ferromanganese futures increased slightly, and the spot prices remained unchanged [9]. Cost and Profit - The production costs of ferrosilicon and ferromanganese in different regions remained stable, and the production profits remained unchanged [9]. Supply - The weekly ferrosilicon production decreased slightly, and the ferromanganese production increased slightly [9]. Demand - The pig iron output remained unchanged, the steel mill's procurement volume decreased slightly, and the demand for ferrosilicon and ferromanganese remained stable [9]. Inventory Changes - The inventory of ferrosilicon enterprises decreased slightly, and the inventory of ferromanganese enterprises increased slightly [9].
山金期货黑色板块日报-20251230
Shan Jin Qi Huo· 2025-12-30 01:15
投资咨询系列报告 山金期货黑色板块日报 一、螺纹、热卷 更新时间:2025年12月30日08时18分 报告导读: 供需方面,上周的数据显示螺纹热卷产量回升 ,五大品种总产量环比回落,整体库存继续回落。螺纹表观需求有所下降,热卷的表观需求回升,五 大品种表观需求整体回落,市场仍处于供需双弱的状态。由于钢厂毛利大幅回落,且消费高峰已过,钢厂产量有望继续缓慢下降。最近几天煤焦价 格大幅反弹,对盘面成本支撑有所抬升。整体来看,在消费淡季,供需双弱,冬储仍需要一段时间才能到来,宏观面信心增强,期价有望维持震荡 上行的走势。从技术上看,在日 K 线图上,05 合约短暂跌破震荡区间后快速反弹 ,目前没有摆脱近期的震荡区间,也没有形成向下的突破。 操作建议: 多单继续持有,中线交易 | 表1:螺纹、热卷相关数据 | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 数据类别 | 指标 | 单位 | 最新 | | 较上日 | | 较上周 | | | 螺纹钢主力合约收盘价 | 元/吨 | 3130 | 12 | 0.38% | 4 | 0.13% ...
特朗普和平计划遇阻,常州锂源磷酸铁锂部分产线减产检修
Dong Zheng Qi Huo· 2025-12-30 01:12
日度报告——综合晨报 特朗普和平计划遇阻,常州锂源磷酸铁锂部 分产线减产检修 [T报ab告le_日R期an:k] 2025-12-30 宏观策略(外汇期货(美元指数)) 特朗普的和平计划遭遇新阻碍 普京称将改变谈判立场 俄罗斯表示乌克兰袭击普京住所,导致停火计划遇阻。俄乌冲 突出现新变数,美元短期震荡。 宏观策略(股指期货) 沪指放量录得九连阳 综 A 股继续放量,但盘面涨跌分化较大,商业航天等概念涨幅较大, 而创业板则跌幅明显。我们认为流动性扩张过程是近期行情的 主要推动力,短期波动不影响躁动底色。 合 宏观策略(黄金) 晨 CME 上调黄金白银保证金 报 黄金白银大跌,白银逼仓交易暂时告一段落,多头获利了结, 空头被迫平仓,叠加假期前后市场流动性不佳波动放大,交易 所上调保证金也加剧了抛压。国内元旦假期将至也要减仓。 农产品(豆粕) 油厂豆粕库存继续上升 市场继续关注我国采购美豆情况,目前南美产区天气良好、产 量前景乐观。上周油厂豆粕库存再度上升,长时间为历史同期 最高。 黑色金属(铁矿石) Champion Iron 拟收购 Rana Gruber 铁水基本逐步持平叠加钢厂原料库存不高,下游补库情绪或略 ...
铁矿石早报-20251230
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-12-29 23:30
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints - Not provided in the given content 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Spot Market Information - **Australian Mainstream Iron Ore**: Newman powder price is 794, up 4 daily and 2 weekly, with an import profit of 19.31; PB powder price is 797, up 4 daily and 2 weekly, with an import profit of -12.85; Mac powder price is 795, up 10 daily and 10 weekly, with an import profit of 49.12; Jinbuba powder price is 750, up 4 daily and 2 weekly, with an import profit of 39.70; Mixed powder price is 740, up 6 daily and 2 weekly, with an import profit of 9.76; Super special powder price is 675, up 2 daily and down 2 weekly, with an import profit of -10.58; Roy Hill powder price is 784, up 4 daily and 2 weekly, with an import profit of 41.96 [1] - **Brazilian Mainstream Iron Ore**: Brazilian mixed powder price is 833, up 4 daily and 3 weekly, with an import profit of 2.39; Brazilian coarse IOC6 price is 761, up 4 daily and down 4 weekly; Brazilian coarse SSFG price is 766, up 4 daily and down 4 weekly [1] - **Other Varieties**: Ukrainian concentrate powder price is 873, up 2 daily and down 2 weekly; 61% Indian powder price is 739, up 4 daily and 2 weekly; Karara concentrate powder price is 878, up 3 daily and 3 weekly; 57% Indian powder price is 610, up 2 daily and down 2 weekly; Atlas powder price is 735, up 6 daily and 2 weekly [1] - **Domestic Ore**: Tangshan iron concentrate powder price is 982, up 6 daily and 6 weekly [1] Futures Market Information - **Dalian Commodity Exchange Contracts**: i2601 price is 801.5, up 3.5 daily and 3.5 weekly, with a monthly spread of -40.5; i2605 price is 783.0, up 4.5 daily and 3.0 weekly, with a monthly spread of 18.5; i2609 price is 761.0, up 4.0 daily and 3.0 weekly, with a monthly spread of 22.0 [1] - **Singapore Exchange Contracts**: FE01 price is 104.05, unchanged daily and down 0.83 weekly, with a monthly spread of -3.69; FE05 price is 102.37, unchanged daily and down 0.49 weekly, with a monthly spread of 1.68; FE09 price is 100.36, unchanged daily and down 0.43 weekly, with a monthly spread of 2.01 [1]
黑色产业链周报-20251229
Hua Bao Qi Huo· 2025-12-29 12:06
【华宝期货】黑色产业链周报 华宝期货 2025.12.29 以上内容谨代表个人观点,投资者据此做出的任何投资决策与华宝期货有限公司和作者无关,据此入市交易,风险自负!投资有风险,入市需谨慎! 目录 01 周度行情回顾 02 本周黑色行情预判 03 品种数据(成材、铁矿石、煤焦、铁合金) 以上内容谨代表个人观点,投资者据此做出的任何投资决策与华宝期货有限公司和作者无关,据此入市交易,风险自负!投资有风险,入市需谨慎! 01 周度行情回顾 | 品种 | | | 期货主力合约收盘价格 | | | 现货价格 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 2025.12.26 | | 2025.12.19 价格变动 涨跌幅 | | | | 2025.12.26 2025.12.19 | 价格变动 | 涨跌幅 | | 螺纹钢 | RB2605 | 3118 | 3119 | -1 | -0.03% | HRB400E: Φ20: 汇总价格: 上海 | 3290 | 3300 | -10 | -0.30 ...