万林新 黑色建材日报 2025-11-17 陈张滢 从业资格号：F03098415 交易咨询号：Z0020771 0755-23375161 chenzy@wkqh.cn 郎志杰 从业资格号：F3030112 交易咨询号：Z0023202 0755-23375125 langzj@wkqh.cn 从业资格号：F03133967 0755-23375162 wanlx@wkqh.cn 赵 航 从业资格号：F03133652 0755-23375155 zhao3@wkqh.cn 【行情资讯】 螺纹钢主力合约下午收盘价为 3053 元/吨, 较上一交易日涨 7 元/吨（0.229%）。当日注册仓单 90327 吨, 环比减少 0 吨。主力合约持仓量为 183.7133 万手，环比减少 20210 手。现货市场方面, 螺纹钢天津汇总 价格为 3210 元/吨, 环比减少 0/吨; 上海汇总价格为 3190 元/吨, 环比减少 10 元/吨。 热轧板卷主力合 约收盘价为 3256 元/吨, 较上一交易日涨 2 元/吨（0.061%）。 当日注册仓单 114083 吨, 环比增加 6477 吨。主力合约持仓量为 128 ...

机构观点汇总： 国都期货：消息面，美国总统特朗普在白宫签署了国会两院通过的一项联邦政府临时拨款法案，从而结 束了已持续43天的史上最长联邦政府"停摆"。基本面供需双弱，本期发运、到港量双降，铁水产量延续 下滑。钢厂在亏损背景下，全面追求最低成本的生产策略，中高品矿溢价走弱。短期来看，铁矿石价格 仍将承压，建议个人投资者不追高，前期空单继续持有，可将98-100美元作为第一下行目标；现货企业 继续采取低库存策略和按需补库模式。 11月14日据统计全国钢厂进口铁矿石库存总量为9076.01万吨，环比增66.07万吨；当前样本钢厂的进口 矿日耗为292.63万吨，环比增3.93万吨；库存消费比31.02天，环比减0.19天。 11月13日，全国主港铁矿石成交105万吨，环比上涨6.28%；远期现货成交134.5万吨。 11月13日Mysteel进口铁矿石62%澳洲粉矿远期现货指数102.55，跌0.05，月均102.72；65%巴西粉矿远 期现货指数114.65，跌0.05，月均115.38;58%高铝粉矿远期现货指数92.55，涨0.1，月均92.33。（单 位：美元/干吨） 截至2025年11月14日当周，铁矿 ...

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View - No core view is presented in the given content. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Spot Market - Australian mainstream iron ore fines: Newman powder price is 780, unchanged daily and up 10 weekly; PB powder is 783, unchanged daily and up 10 weekly; Mac powder is 773, down 3 daily and up 3 weekly; Jinbuba powder is 734, unchanged daily and up 10 weekly; Mixed powder is 722, down 3 daily and down 3 weekly; Super special powder is 670, down 2 daily and down 3 weekly; Carajás powder is 882, down 1 daily and up 4 weekly [1]. - Brazilian mainstream iron ore fines: Brazilian blend is 820, up 2 daily and up 6 weekly; Brazilian coarse IOC6 is 783, unchanged daily and up 8 weekly; Brazilian coarse SSFG is 788, unchanged daily and up 8 weekly [1]. - Other varieties: Ukrainian concentrate is 875, unchanged daily and weekly; 61% Indian powder is 723, unchanged daily and up 10 weekly; Karara concentrate is 877, unchanged daily and weekly; Roy Hill powder is 770, unchanged daily and up 10 weekly; KUMBA powder is 842, unchanged daily and up 10 weekly; 57% Indian powder is 605, down 2 daily and down 3 weekly; Atlas powder is 717, down 3 daily and down 3 weekly [1]. - Domestic ore: Tangshan iron concentrate is 1008, unchanged daily and weekly [1]. Futures Market - Dalian Commodity Exchange contracts: i2601 is 772.5, unchanged daily and up 12 weekly; i2605 is 743.5, down 2 daily and up 3.5 weekly; i2609 is 721.5, down 1.5 daily and down 0.5 weekly [1]. - Singapore Exchange contracts: FE01 is 99.71, up 0.03 daily and down 1.04 weekly; FE05 is 97.40, up 0.01 daily and down 1.10 weekly; FE09 is 95.32, down 0.06 daily and down 1.11 weekly [1]. Premium and Spread - Ore premium: PB lump/ lump ore premium and U - ball/ pellet premium data are presented, but specific analysis is not provided [1]. - Inter - monthly spread: For Dalian Commodity Exchange contracts, i2601 - i2605 spread is - 51.0, unchanged daily and down 1.2 weekly; i2605 - i2609 spread is 29.0, up 2.0 daily and up 7.3 weekly; i2609 - i2601 spread is 22.0, up 1.5 daily and up 11.3 weekly [1].

铁矿石周度观点 国泰君安期货研究所 张广硕（分析师） 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020198 日期：2025年11月16日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint 铁矿观点：产业链利润博弈，震荡反复 | | 最近一周切片数据 | | | | | | | | YTD累计发运数据 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 条 目 | 当周值 | | 环 比 | 同 | 比 | | 45W2025 | 45W2024 | 累计同比 | | 累计同比% | | | 全球发货量 | 3069 | 0 . | -144 8 . | 48 | 3 . | 全球发货 | 139687 3 . | 137365 8 . | 2321 5 . | 1 . | 7% | | | 澳发货量 | 1717 | 6 . | -109 9 . | -230 | 0 . | 澳发货 | 80141 9 . | 806 ...

市场预期反复，矿价偏弱运行 研究员：丁祖超 期货从业证号：F 0 3 1 0 5 9 1 7 投资咨询证号：Z0018259 目 录 第一部分：综合分析与交易策略 第二部分：铁矿核心逻辑分析 * [16] A. A. K. K. 投资逻辑与交易策略 交易策略： GALAXY FUTURES 2 逻辑分析：本周矿价底部震荡，价格回落至前期低位，市场博弈有所加大，但终端需求较快回落仍有望主导中期矿价。基本面方面， 近期全球铁矿发运持续高位回落，与去年同期水平相接近；而非主流发运仍贡献小幅增量，四季度预计会得到延续。需求端，三季度 国内用钢需求环比大幅走弱，地产、基建和制造业用钢同比均出现下滑，10月份延续偏弱走势，预计四季度难以看到好转，对当前基 本面影响较大；但对铁矿来说，海外需求仍维持高增长，1-9月海外铁元素消费量同比增加近4%/2760万吨，二季度至今海外铁元素 消费量同比处于高位，持续贡献增量。 整体来看，当前终端需求呈现国内走弱，海外用钢维持高增长，铁矿石估值在黑色系中维持在高位。但随着国内用钢需求较快走弱， 三季度以来进口铁矿供应加速回升，国内铁元素库存持续增加，铁矿自身基本面出现较大转变，预计矿价 ...

相关报告：智研咨询发布的《2025-2031年中国铁矿石行业市场全景评估及发展策略分析报告》 根据中国海关数据显示：2025年9月中国铁矿砂及其精矿进口数量为1.16亿吨，同比增长11.9%，进口金 额为112.78亿美元，同比增长16.3%。 数据来源：中国海关，智研咨询整理 知前沿，问智研。智研咨询是中国一流产业咨询机构，十数年持续深耕产业研究领域，提供深度产业研 究报告、商业计划书、可行性研究报告及定制服务等一站式产业咨询服务。专业的角度、品质化的服 务、敏锐的市场洞察力，专注于提供完善的产业解决方案，为您的投资决策赋能。 近一年中国铁矿砂及其精矿进口情况统计图 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The steel demand has officially entered the off - season, there is still a risk of hot - rolled coil inventory, and future attention should be paid to the production reduction rhythm. With the gradual implementation of the Fed's easing expectations and positive signals from the China - US meeting, the market sentiment and capital environment are expected to improve. The steel consumption side may gradually recover in the future. In the short term, due to the impact of the cost side, the price center of finished products has slightly declined, and the demand is still weak, with prices continuing the weak and volatile trend. However, with the implementation of policies and changes in the macro - environment, future demand is expected to reach an inflection point [2]. - For iron ore, high inventory still suppresses the price. In the short term, the rebound in hot - metal production supports the demand for iron ore on the margin. In the macro vacuum period, the futures price is likely to follow the real - world logic, and the iron ore fundamentals are weak. The short - term ore price will operate within the shock range, with the lower limit between 750 - 760 yuan/ton [5]. - For the black sector, it is considered that looking for a callback position to do a rebound may have a higher cost - performance ratio than continuing to short. The subsequent overseas situation will be a definite situation of both fiscal and monetary easing, and domestic demand - stimulating policies are still expected. For manganese silicon, pay attention to the manganese ore end; for silicon iron, its operability is relatively low [10]. - For industrial silicon, the supply and demand are both weak, and the cost support is temporarily stable. It is expected that the price will consolidate and wait for new drivers [13]. - For polysilicon, with a significant reduction in supply, the supply - demand pattern may improve marginally, but the short - term de - stocking amplitude is expected to be limited. Be cautious about the authenticity of long and short news [16]. - For glass, the current market has limited positive factors, and the short - term rebound momentum is insufficient with limited upside space [19]. - For soda ash, the current supply is relatively high, and the downstream demand is average. The short - term price will continue the low - level shock pattern [21]. 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs Steel Market Information - The closing price of the rebar main contract was 3046 yuan/ton, up 8 yuan/ton (0.263%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts decreased by 5166 tons to 90327 tons, and the main contract positions decreased by 10693 lots to 1.857343 million lots. The Tianjin aggregated price of rebar was 3210 yuan/ton, unchanged, and the Shanghai aggregated price was 3200 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton [1]. - The closing price of the hot - rolled coil main contract was 3254 yuan/ton, down 1 yuan/ton (- 0.03%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts increased by 12063 tons to 107606 tons, and the main contract positions decreased by 8957 lots to 1.302507 million lots. The aggregated price of hot - rolled coils in Lecong and Shanghai was 3270 yuan/ton, unchanged [1]. Strategy Views - Rebar supply and demand both declined, inventory continued to decline, and the overall performance was neutral. Hot - rolled coils had weak demand, could not absorb the production, and the inventory showed a counter - seasonal accumulation. Overall, steel demand has entered the off - season, and there is still a risk of hot - rolled coil inventory. Future attention should be paid to the production reduction rhythm [2]. Iron Ore Market Information - The main iron ore contract (I2601) closed at 772.50 yuan/ton, with a change of - 0.19% (- 1.50), and the positions decreased by 7106 lots to 494,100 lots. The weighted positions were 910,700 lots. The spot price of PB powder at Qingdao Port was 782 yuan/wet ton, with a basis of 58.73 yuan/ton and a basis ratio of 7.07% [4]. - The Simandou iron ore project was officially put into production on November 11, but it will take time to reach full production, and the increase is expected to be limited this year [4]. Strategy Views - On the supply side, the overseas iron ore shipment volume continued to decline. The shipments from Australia and Brazil decreased, and Vale and Rio Tinto contributed to the reduction. The shipments from non - mainstream countries increased, and the near - end arrivals decreased. On the demand side, the daily average hot - metal production was 236.88 tons, up 2.66 tons. The increase mainly came from Hebei, with an increase in the utilization rate of some blast furnace capacities. The steel mill profitability continued to decline, and some regional steel mills started blast furnace annual inspections due to losses. The port inventory continued to increase, and the steel mill inventory increased slightly. The terminal data was weak. High inventory still suppresses the price, and the short - term rebound in hot - metal production supports the demand for iron ore on the margin [5]. Manganese Silicon and Silicon Iron Market Information - On November 13, the main manganese silicon contract (SM601) closed down 0.10% at 5756 yuan/ton. The spot price of 6517 manganese silicon in Tianjin was 5700 yuan/ton, with a discount to the futures price of 5890 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, and a premium to the futures price of 134 yuan/ton [7]. - The main silicon iron contract (SF601) closed up 0.29% at 5506 yuan/ton. The spot price of 72 silicon iron in Tianjin was 5500 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, and a discount to the futures price of 6 yuan/ton [8]. Strategy Views - In November, the macro environment entered a relative vacuum period, and the pricing of the black sector returned to the fundamentals. The market was trying a "negative feedback" trading in the black sector, but it was considered a temporary shock and emotional release with limited downside space. For the black sector, it is more cost - effective to look for a callback position to do a rebound. For manganese silicon, pay attention to the manganese ore end; for silicon iron, its operability is relatively low [9][10]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon Market Information - The main industrial silicon contract (SI2601) closed at 9145 yuan/ton, with a change of - 0.54% (- 50). The weighted positions increased by 6269 lots to 418,415 lots. The spot price of 553 non - oxygenated silicon in East China was 9350 yuan/ton, unchanged, and the basis of the main contract was 205 yuan/ton; the spot price of 421 silicon was 9750 yuan/ton, unchanged, and the basis of the main contract after conversion was - 195 yuan/ton [12]. - The main polysilicon contract (PS2601) closed at 54195 yuan/ton, with a change of + 1.37% (+ 735). The weighted positions increased by 2397 lots to 237,112 lots. The average price of N - type granular silicon was 50.5 yuan/kg, the average price of N - type dense material was 51 yuan/kg, and the average price of N - type re - feeding material was 52.15 yuan/kg, all unchanged. The basis of the main contract was - 2045 yuan/ton [15]. Strategy Views - For industrial silicon, in October, the production continued to increase. In November, the production in the southwest is expected to decline. The demand for polysilicon decreased, and the organic silicon production is expected to be stable. The supply and demand are both weak, and the price is expected to consolidate [13]. - For polysilicon, in November, some production capacities started maintenance, and the production is expected to decline in the last two months. The downstream silicon wafer production is also expected to decline. The supply - demand pattern may improve marginally, but the short - term de - stocking amplitude is expected to be limited [16]. Glass and Soda Ash Market Information - The glass main contract closed at 1056 yuan/ton, up 0 + 0.67% (+ 7). The North China large - plate price was 1110 yuan, unchanged; the Central China price was 1140 yuan, unchanged. The weekly inventory of float glass sample enterprises was 63.247 million boxes, up 111,000 boxes (+ 0.18%). The top 20 long - position holders reduced 57,921 long positions, and the top 20 short - position holders reduced 52,810 short positions [18]. - The soda ash main contract closed at 1239 yuan/ton, up 2.06% (+ 25). The Shahe heavy - alkali price was 1194 yuan, up 30. The weekly inventory of soda ash sample enterprises was 1.7073 million tons, down 0.69 million tons (- 0.18%), including 907,100 tons of heavy - alkali inventory, up 75,000 tons, and 800,200 tons of light - alkali inventory, down 144,000 tons. The top 20 long - position holders increased 21,477 long positions, and the top 20 short - position holders reduced 16,961 short positions [20]. Strategy Views - For glass, the current market has limited positive factors, the downstream support is insufficient, the production enterprise shipment pressure increases, and the short - term rebound momentum is insufficient with limited upside space [19]. - For soda ash, the current supply is relatively high, the downstream demand is average, especially the consumption of heavy - alkali is weak. Due to the industry - wide losses, some enterprises have a stronger willingness to support prices. The short - term price will continue the low - level shock pattern [21].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The steel industry is facing a complex situation with weakening cost support and potential negative feedback loops due to falling steel mill profits and the end of the consumption peak season. Both steel and iron ore prices are under pressure, but there may be opportunities for long - positions after price stabilization [2][4]. Summary by Directory 1. Threaded Steel and Hot - Rolled Coil - **Supply and Demand**: This week, the apparent demand for threaded steel decreased, production declined, and inventory continued to fall. The inventory of hot - rolled coil increased slightly. Steel mills may cut production more than the normal seasonal scale, potentially triggering a negative feedback loop. Coal, coke, and iron ore prices are weakening, reducing cost support [2]. - **Technical Analysis**: On the daily K - line chart, the futures prices of both threaded steel and hot - rolled coil have fallen below the 10 - day moving average and are currently supported by the lower Bollinger Band [2]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Maintain a wait - and - see approach, avoid chasing up or selling down. Wait patiently for the price to stabilize and then go long for mid - term trading. Do not short when the price is low [2]. - **Data Summary**: - **Prices**: The closing price of the threaded steel main contract was 3046 yuan/ton, up 0.30% from last week; the hot - rolled coil main contract was 3254 yuan/ton, down 0.06% from last week [2]. - **Production**: The national building materials steel mill threaded steel production was 200.00 million tons, down 4.10% from last week; hot - rolled coil production was 313.66 million tons, down 1.41% from last week [2]. - **Inventory**: The five - major varieties of social inventory was 1061.38 million tons, down 1.27% from last week; the threaded steel social inventory was 415.75 million tons, down 2.34% from last week; the hot - rolled coil social inventory was 332.99 million tons, down 0.01% from last week [2]. - **Apparent Demand**: The five - major varieties of apparent demand was 860.61 million tons, down 0.73% from last week; the threaded steel apparent demand was 216.37 million tons, down 0.98% from last week [2]. 2. Iron Ore - **News and Market Impact**: The Simandou Iron Ore has finally started production, which is expected to affect the overall supply. Steel mills are reducing production due to falling profits and the end of the consumption peak season, suppressing raw material prices. Global shipments have declined from the peak, and port inventories are rising, putting pressure on futures prices [4]. - **Technical Analysis**: The futures price of the 01 contract has fallen below the middle Bollinger Band, and there is resistance from the dense trading area above [4]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Maintain a wait - and - see approach, wait patiently for the price to stabilize and then go long [4]. - **Data Summary**: - **Prices**: The settlement price of the DCE iron ore main contract was 772.5 yuan/dry ton, down 0.64% from last week; the SGX iron ore continuous - one settlement price was 102.79 US dollars/dry ton, down 0.78% from last week [4]. - **Supply**: Australian iron ore shipments were 1564.5 million tons, down 4.59% from last week; Brazilian shipments were 606.9 million tons, down 23.09% from last week [4]. - **Inventory**: The port inventory was 14898.83 million tons, up 2.45% from last week; the port trade ore inventory was 9977.79 million tons, up 3.36% from last week [4]. 3. Industry News - **Steel Billet Inventory**: According to Buguwang data, the steel billet inventory in Tangshan area was 119.63 million tons this week, down 1.35% from last week [6]. - **Threaded Steel Data**: As of the week of November 13, threaded steel production, apparent demand, factory inventory, and social inventory all decreased [6]. - **Coking Coal Auction**: On November 13, the coking coal auction in Linfen Puxian market showed a decline [7]. - **Steel Enterprise Data**: In early November 2025, the steel inventory of key steel enterprises increased, and the daily production of crude steel increased while that of steel decreased [7]. - **Coking Plant Profit**: The average profit per ton of coke for 30 independent coking plants was - 34 yuan/ton this week [7].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - No information provided 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Spot Market - **Australian Iron Ore**: Newman powder price is 780, down 1 from the previous day and up 2 for the week; PB powder price is 783, down 1 from the previous day and down 2 for the week; Macfarlane powder price is 776, down 2 from the previous day and down 4 for the week; Jinbuba powder price is 734, down 1 from the previous day and down 2 for the week; Super special powder price is 672, down 5 from the previous day and down 15 for the week; Carajás powder price is 883, down 1 from the previous day and down 10 for the week; Roy Hill powder price is 770, down 1 from the previous day and down 2 for the week; KUMBA powder price is 842, down 1 from the previous day and down 2 for the week [1] - **Brazilian Iron Ore**: Brazilian mixed ore price is 818, down 1 from the previous day and down 3 for the week; Brazilian coarse IOC6 price is 783, down 1 from the previous day and down 4 for the week; Brazilian coarse SSFG price is 788, down 1 from the previous day and down 4 for the week [1] - **Other Regions' Iron Ore**: Ukrainian concentrate price is 875, down 3 from the previous day and down 15 for the week; 61% Indian powder price is 723, down 1 from the previous day and down 2 for the week; Karara concentrate price is 877, down 3 from the previous day and down 15 for the week; 57% Indian powder price is 607, down 5 from the previous day and down 15 for the week; Atlas powder price is 720, down 8 from the previous day and down 12 for the week; Tangshan iron concentrate price is 1008, unchanged from the previous day and the week [1] Futures Market - **DCE Contracts**: i2601 contract price is 772.5, down 1.5 from the previous day and down 5.0 for the week; i2605 contract price is 745.5, down 2.0 from the previous day and down 10.5 for the week; i2609 contract price is 723.0, down 1.5 from the previous day and down 12.0 for the week [1] - **SGX Contracts**: FE01 contract price is 99.68, up 1.28 from the previous day and down 0.79 for the week; FE05 contract price is 97.39, up 1.29 from the previous day and down 0.79 for the week; FE09 contract price is 95.38, up 1.38 from the previous day and down 0.72 for the week [1] Spread and Premium - **Inter - monthly Spread**: For DCE contracts, i2601 - i2605 spread is - 49.5, up 0.4 from the previous day and up 2.8 for the week; i2605 - i2609 spread is 27.0, up 0.9 from the previous day and up 8.3 for the week; i2609 - i2601 spread is 22.5, up 0.4 from the previous day and up 9.8 for the week; For SGX contracts, FE01 - FE05 spread is - 4.30, up 0.7 from the previous day and up 5.6 for the week; FE05 - FE09 spread is 2.29, up 0.2 from the previous day and up 1.1 for the week; FE09 - FE01 spread is 2.01, down 3.6 from the previous day and down 2.5 for the week [1] - **Premium**: Information on U - ball/ pellet premium, PB block/ block premium is presented in the form of historical data charts, but specific current premium values are not clearly summarized in the text [1]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views of the Report - In the short - term, the macro - economic expectations for steel may be in a vacuum, and the focus should be on industrial contradictions. Steel production is expected to gradually decline, with initial suppression of furnace materials and a potential for resonance in the latter half if supported by macro - funds or policies [3]. - The sentiment in the silicon - iron and manganese - silicon market has declined, and prices are oscillating. The fundamentals have concerns, with high supply, large inventory - clearing pressure, and weak downstream demand, so prices may be under pressure [3]. - For coking coal and coke, the fourth round of coke price increase is in a stalemate. There is downward pressure on coal prices in November, but the decline may be limited. If supply remains low, inventory replenishment may start around mid - December, and coal prices may rise again [3]. - For iron ore, short - term supply is strong due to arrival rhythms, but subsequent shipments are normal. With the decline of molten iron, port inventories will rise, and the previous price range is hard to maintain [3]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Steel - On November 12, the far - month contract closing prices of RB2605, HC2605, etc. and their changes were reported. The trade volume of building materials spot was around 90,000 tons, and the market was generally dull. There is no new driving force in the short - term, and the macro - economic expectations may be in a vacuum. Steel production is expected to decline, and the initial stage will suppress furnace materials [1][2][3]. Silicon - Iron and Manganese - Silicon - Affected by the external macro - environment, market sentiment has declined, and prices are following the adjustment of the black - metal sector. The fundamentals have problems such as high supply and large inventory - clearing pressure, and prices may be under pressure [3]. Coking Coal and Coke - On the spot side, the fourth round of coke price increase is in a stalemate. The coking - coal auction has more non - successful bids, but most prices are rising. The price of Mongolian No. 5 raw coal has dropped to 1100. On the futures side, the sector is oscillating. The positive factors on the supply side of coking coal are weakening, and the high valuation is hard to maintain. There is downward pressure on coal prices in November, but the decline may be limited [3]. Iron Ore - The short - term supply of iron ore is strong due to arrival rhythms, and subsequent shipments are normal. With the decline of molten iron, port inventories will continue to rise, and the previous price range is hard to maintain [3].