7月31日，铁货发布2019年上半年业绩预告，预计上半年公司拥有人应占亏损净额同步将有所扩大。 公告称，尽管集团的营运表现整体符合预期，而K&S于2019年上半年产生的EBITDA预期高于去年同期，由于2018年 年末资产减值回拨导致折旧开支较高，以及因来自Gazprombank及Petropavlovsk贷款相关的利率较高，以及主要由于 俄罗斯卢布升值造成外汇亏损，导致公司财务开支增加。 受该消息影响，铁货股票价格在早盘时段出现大幅走低趋势，截至今日港股由于台风天气原因提前收盘，股价0.171港 元，跌17.4%，换手率1.67%，市值为12.13亿港元。 中报预告还称，该集团与将予摊销工商银行贷款有关的未摊销借款成本约为1100万美元。由于该集团已就工商银行贷 款融资进行再融资，因此须要作出会计调整，以悉数撇销该笔在2019年上半年损益表中约1100万美元的未摊销成本， 而非于余下贷款期限摊销成本。撇销并无对该集团造成任何现金影响。 同时铁货还公布了2019年第二季的铁矿销售数据及未来预期，2019年第二季的平均产能约为88%，6月产能为93%，创 每月生产记录，其中K&S销量及产量分别较上一季增加35. ...

全球最大铁矿石出产国澳大利亚警告称，由于供应回升缓解了全球紧缩局面，2020年铁矿石价格将跌至 每吨60美元水平，同时提醒投资者下跌并不是立即就会发生。明年的平均价格料为每吨63美元。 ...

(行情来源：富途证券) 此外，全球宏观经济情绪走弱，也对铁矿石的需求产生相当大的压制。 格隆汇8月5日丨铁矿石概念股普跌，港股市场铁货(1029.HK)大跌13.66%，易大宗(1733.HK)跌近4%。A股市场铁矿石 概念股也普遍录得下跌。 上周钢材库存和铁矿港口库存数据齐齐上升，钢材需求疲软，且随着淡水河谷旗下最大铁矿复产，澳洲、巴西铁矿发 货量及到港量都有望岀现季节性增量，供需紧张状况逐渐缓解，四大矿山倾向在高价格水平的时候加速发货。尤其是 高品位矿石溢价压力较大。最新普氏铁矿石指数跌至108.45美元，创一个月半新低。 大商所铁矿石主力合约今天大跌近5%，跌破700元/吨，现报697元/吨，势将录得连续第四个交易日下跌。 ...

A股市场凌钢股份大涨6.52%，金岭矿业涨5.62%。 永安期货研报认为，源于近期供应压力有所缓解，而需求端刚性较为稳定，在钢厂年底面临补库的情况下，港口库存 累库动能不足，铁矿石基本面不断改善，驱动价格强势上行。 格隆汇12月10日丨铁矿石概念股继续拉升，港股市场铁货大涨7.46%； 无视交易所降温举措，大商所铁矿石期货近月合约今天历史突破1000元/吨关口，最高触及1000.5元/吨。 昨日，大商所再次出招为铁矿石期货降温，决定自12月14日交易时起，非期货公司会员或者客户在铁矿石期货I2105 合约上单日开仓量不得超过5000手。这也是过去7天内，交易所第四次出手，尽显监管层呵护品种稳健发展的态度。 ...

黑色建材日报 2025-09-30 黑色建材组 陈张滢 从业资格号：F03098415 交易咨询号：Z0020771 0755-23375161 chenzy@wkqh.cn 郎志杰 从业资格号：F3030112 0755-23375125 langzj@wkqh.cn 万林新 从业资格号：F03133967 0755-23375162 wanlx@wkqh.cn 赵 航 从业资格号：F03133652 0755-23375155 zhao3@wkqh.cn 【行情资讯】 螺纹钢主力合约下午收盘价为 3097 元/吨, 较上一交易日跌 17 元/吨（-0.54%）。当日注册仓单 270238 吨, 环比减少 2412 吨。主力合约持仓量为 192.6639 万手，环比减少 49906 手。现货市场方面, 螺纹钢天 津汇总价格为 3220 元/吨, 环比减少 0/吨; 上海汇总价格为 3240 元/吨, 环比减少 20 元/吨。 热轧板卷 主力合约收盘价为 3289 元/吨, 较上一交易日跌 24 元/吨（-0.72%）。 当日注册仓单 28314 吨, 环比减 少 0 吨。主力合约持仓量为 138.447 万 ...

Group 1: Macro Strategy (Gold) - The amount of gold held in ETFs has increased by 0.60%, or 6.01 tons, reaching a total of 1011.73 tons as of September 29 [11] - Gold prices continue to rise, driven by market risk aversion due to the potential government shutdown in the U.S. and ongoing political disagreements [12][14] - The fundamental reason for long-term bullish sentiment on gold is the deteriorating fiscal situation and high government debt burden [12][14] Group 2: Macro Strategy (Government Bonds) - The National Development and Reform Commission announced a new policy financial tool with a total scale of 500 billion yuan aimed at stabilizing economic growth and promoting effective investment [15] - The bond market is expected to experience short-term fluctuations, but the probability of sustained adjustments is low, with recommendations to build long positions on dips [15] Group 3: Agricultural Products (Soybean Meal) - Brazil's new crop planting rate has reached 3.2%, higher than the same period last year [20] - The U.S. soybean harvest rate is at 19%, in line with market expectations, with a good quality rating of 62% [21] - Domestic demand for soybean meal remains strong, with a decrease in inventory at oil mills [22] Group 4: Black Metals (Rebar/Hot Rolled Coil) - The Ministry of Water Resources expects investment in water conservancy construction during the 14th Five-Year Plan to exceed 5.4 trillion yuan, which is 1.6 times that of the previous plan [25] - Steel prices are expected to remain under pressure due to high iron water production and inventory accumulation, with recommendations for light positions ahead of the holiday [26][27] Group 5: Nonferrous Metals (Zinc) - The nonferrous metals industry has released a stable growth work plan, emphasizing orderly project construction and resource development [40][44] - Domestic zinc ingot inventory has decreased to 141,400 tons, indicating a tightening supply situation [45] - The market sentiment for zinc is cautiously optimistic, with potential for short-term price stabilization [46] Group 6: Energy Chemicals (Soda Ash) - The liquid alkali market in Shandong has seen a slight decline, with general market demand being weak ahead of the holiday [47] - The price of liquid alkali has decreased due to insufficient downstream purchasing activity [48] Group 7: Energy Chemicals (PVC) - The domestic PVC powder market has shown a slight decline, with prices fluctuating between 0-10 yuan/ton [51] - The overall market remains weak, but low valuations may limit further price declines [52] Group 8: Energy Chemicals (Urea) - The utilization rate of compound fertilizer production capacity has decreased to 35.27%, indicating a reduction in production activity [53] - Urea prices are expected to remain under pressure due to high inventory levels and weak demand [54]

研究中心黑色团队 2025/9/30 | | | | | | | 现货 | | | | 远期 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 地区 | | 品种 | 最新 | 日变化 | | 周变化 | 折盘面 | 最新 | 日变化 | 周变化 | 进口利润 | | | | 普氏62指数 | | 103.90 | -2.20 | | -2.65 | | | | | | | | | | 纽曼粉 | 775 | -5 | | -15 | 829.2 | 101.65 | -0.10 | -2.85 | -30.55 | | | | | PB粉 | 778 | -7 | | -16 | 825.0 | 104.35 | 0.00 | -2.95 | -10.48 | | | 澳洲 | | 麦克粉 | 768 | -5 | | -15 | 838.9 | 100.30 | 0.00 | -2.95 | -3.01 | | | | | 金布巴 | 748 | -7 | | -17 | 84 ...

Key Points of the Report Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the report industry investment rating is provided in the given content. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The Chinese capital market is in the initial stage of strategic allocation, with the 9 - month stock index in a high - level consolidation phase after continuous growth. The CSI 500 and CSI 1000 indices are more offensive, while the SSE 50 and SSE 300 are more defensive [2][12]. - For bonds, it is recommended to be bearish on long - term bonds and remain on the sidelines for short - term bonds, as the central bank's policy adjustment awaits central government deployment, and the equity market is strengthening [14]. - In the energy and chemical sector, the outlook for various products varies. For example, crude oil's future depends on OPEC's production increase; methanol is short - term bearish; rubber is expected to fluctuate within a range; and polyolefins may continue to oscillate in a low - level range [15][16][17][19]. - Regarding metals, copper is supported in the long - term due to potential supply shortages; zinc may fluctuate weakly in the short - term; and lithium carbonate may oscillate in the short - term with demand and inventory factors at play [21][22][23]. - In the agricultural product sector, protein meal may oscillate at a low level; some oils are showing signs of rebound; and cotton and sugar are expected to have complex short - term trends influenced by supply and demand [27][28][30][31]. - The shipping index of container shipping to Europe may be in a short - term oscillatory pattern, with the focus on shipping companies' price increases and capacity adjustment [32]. Summaries by Related Catalogs 1. Macroeconomic Situation - From January to August, the total profit of Chinese industrial enterprises above designated size was 4.69297 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 0.9%. In August, the profit increased by 20.4% year - on - year, compared with a 1.5% decline in the previous month. The equipment manufacturing industry was a major driver, with 7 out of 8 sub - industries seeing profit growth [1]. - The US core PCE price index in August increased by 2.9% year - on - year and 0.2% month - on - month, in line with expectations. Real consumer spending increased by 0.4% for the third consecutive month, exceeding the expected 0.2% [1]. 2. Key Varieties Analysis Financial - **Stock Index**: The US three major indices rose, while the previous trading day's stock index declined. The oil and petrochemical sector led the gain, and the computer sector led the decline, with a market turnover of 2.17 trillion yuan. On September 25, the margin trading balance increased by 13.288 billion yuan to 2.427411 trillion yuan [2][12]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Treasury bonds rose slightly. The central bank continued to inject medium - term liquidity, but the cross - festival capital tightened. The profit of industrial enterprises above designated size in August increased significantly. The Fed restarted interest rate cuts, and the US GDP growth rate was revised up. It is recommended to be bearish on long - term bonds and remain on the sidelines for short - term bonds [13][14]. Energy and Chemical - **Crude Oil**: The SC night session rose 1.21%. Russia will impose a partial ban on diesel exports by the end of the year and extend the gasoline export ban. The global decline rate of oil and gas field production has accelerated. Attention should be paid to OPEC's production increase [3][15]. - **Methanol**: Methanol oscillated at night. The average operating load of domestic coal - to - olefin plants increased. Coastal methanol inventory decreased, but it is still at a historical high. Methanol is short - term bearish [16]. - **Rubber**: Natural rubber futures oscillated. Supply in some areas improved, and bonded area inventory decreased. The start - up rate of all - steel tires increased. It is expected to continue to oscillate within a range [17]. - **Polyolefins**: Polyolefins continued to rebound at night. The price generally fluctuated with the cost. It may continue to oscillate in a low - level range, with attention on demand and supply - side policies [18][19]. - **Glass and Soda Ash**: Glass futures declined. The short - term market supply and demand are slowly recovering, and attention is on the supply - side contraction. The inventory of glass and soda ash production enterprises decreased. The market has a positive expectation for the glass industry's supply change [4][20]. Metals - **Copper**: The copper price at night decreased by 0.7%. The concentrate supply has been tight, but the smelting output has been growing. The Indonesian mine accident may lead to a supply shortage, supporting the long - term price [21]. - **Zinc**: The zinc price at night decreased by 1.25%. The zinc concentrate processing fee increased, and the smelting output is expected to rise. The short - term supply may be in surplus, and the price may fluctuate weakly [22]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: Supply and demand both increased, and inventory decreased. The bullish logic has been weakened, and the price may oscillate in the short - term [23]. - **Double Cokes**: The double - coke futures were weak at night. The steel fundamentals put pressure on coking coal, and investors are advised to operate cautiously before the holiday [24]. - **Iron Ore**: Steel mills' demand for iron ore is supported. Global iron ore shipments decreased, and port inventory decreased rapidly. The price is expected to be strong and oscillate [25]. - **Steel**: The steel supply pressure is increasing, and the inventory is accumulating. The export of billets is strong. The market is in a situation of weak supply and demand, with hot - rolled coils stronger than rebar [26]. Agricultural Products - **Protein Meal**: The prices of soybean and rapeseed meal were weak at night. Argentina temporarily cancelled export taxes, but the exemption period has ended. The domestic market may oscillate at a low level [27]. - **Oils**: The price of soybean oil declined slightly at night, while rapeseed and palm oil were strong. After the digestion of the negative news of Argentina's tax cancellation, the oil price rebounded [28]. - **Sugar**: The international sugar market is in a stock - building stage, and the domestic market is supported by high sales - to - production ratio and low inventory, but also dragged by import pressure. Zhengzhou sugar may oscillate after a rebound [30]. - **Cotton**: The international cotton market has supply pressure, and the domestic market is affected by the new cotton harvest. The price may oscillate weakly in the short - term [31]. Shipping Index - **Container Shipping to Europe**: The EC oscillated and declined on Friday. The SCFI European line price decreased. Shipping companies are trying to raise prices, and the contract may shift to the 12 - month contract. It is expected to be in an oscillatory pattern in the short - term [32]. 3. News Summaries - **International News**: Ukrainian drones attacked Russian refineries, causing fuel shortages in some Russian regions. Russia will impose a partial ban on diesel exports and extend the gasoline export ban [3][6][15]. - **Domestic News**: The "Super Golden Week" of the Mid - Autumn Festival and National Day is approaching. The tourism market is booming, with changes in travel patterns and consumer preferences [7]. - **Industry News**: The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs requires supporting Xinjiang to improve grain production capacity, promote cotton seed breeding, and develop characteristic industries [8][9].

宝城期货铁矿石早报（2025 年 9 月 29 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 铁矿 2601 | 震荡 偏弱 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏弱 | 关注 MA5 一线压力 | 基本面在转弱，矿价承压运行 | 说明： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘价为终点价格， 计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 行情驱动逻辑 铁矿石供需格局走弱，库存持续增加，矿石终端消耗维持高位运行，但补库趋于尾声，且钢市矛 盾不断累积，利好效应趋弱。与此同时，国内港口铁矿石到货量增加，海外矿商发运高位有所回落， 高矿价下海外矿石供应积极，叠加内矿供应恢复，铁矿石供应有所回升。综上，节前矿石需求表现尚 可， ...

资料显示，河钢资源股份有限公司位于河北省石家庄市体育南大街385号，成立日期1999年6月29日，上 市日期1999年7月14日，公司主营业务涉及矿业开发及矿产品加工、销售和工程机械产品及配件的生 产、销售。主营业务收入构成为：磁铁矿64.84%，铜26.63%，蛭石6.55%，其他(补充)1.98%。 河钢资源所属申万行业为：钢铁-冶钢原料-铁矿石。所属概念板块包括：高派息、社保重仓、增持回 购、融资融券、QFII持股等。 截至6月30日，河钢资源股东户数3.03万，较上期减少4.99%；人均流通股20721股，较上期增加5.25%。 2025年1月-6月，河钢资源实现营业收入28.22亿元，同比减少13.33%；归母净利润2.62亿元，同比减少 45.11%。 9月29日，河钢资源盘中上涨2.03%，截至10:22，报16.12元/股，成交9907.10万元，换手率0.99%，总市 值105.22亿元。 资金流向方面，主力资金净流出78.03万元，特大单买入213.27万元，占比2.15%，卖出268.52万元，占 比2.71%；大单买入2070.11万元，占比20.90%，卖出2092.89万元，占比2 ...