Group 1: Financial Stability and Regulation - The People's Bank of China emphasized the need for high standards and quality in financial stability work for 2026, integrating party building with business operations to ensure a robust financial risk prevention system [2] - The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) plans to enhance the protection of small investors in the capital market, focusing on risk prevention, regulatory strength, and high-quality development [3] Group 2: Trade Relations and Investigations - The Ministry of Commerce of China announced the initiation of two trade barrier investigations against the United States, responding to U.S. actions perceived as harmful to global supply chains and trade in green products [5] Group 3: Market Reactions and Economic Indicators - U.S. stock markets experienced significant declines, with the Nasdaq dropping over 2%, while commodities like oil, gold, and silver saw price increases [11] - Upcoming PMI data for March is set to be released, and the export tax rebate for photovoltaic products will be fully canceled starting April 1, 2026, following a gradual reduction that began in late 2024 [12] Group 4: IPOs and Stock Market Developments - The CSRC approved IPO registrations for two companies, and three new stocks are set to be issued in the upcoming week [13] - A total of 32 companies will have their restricted shares released this week, amounting to 1.26 billion shares with a total market value of approximately 29.48 billion yuan [15]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The bond market showed limited reactions to overseas conflicts and China's economic "good start" at the beginning of the year. The yield of the 10 - year Treasury active bond 250022 decreased by 1.85bp from 1.8365% last Friday to 1.818% this Friday. In the short - term, the bond market lacks a smooth long - term logic. In the medium - to - long - term, the recovery slope of PPI year - on - year in the second half of the year becomes a focus, and if it is stronger than expected, there is a possibility of interest rate increase [1][10]. - The future of the US bond yield is closely related to the development of the US - Israel - Iran conflict. There are two possible extreme paths: one is the lifting of Iranian sanctions, leading to lower oil prices, increased frictional unemployment, and a possible rebound of growth technology stocks; the other is Iran's substantial control of the strait, pushing up oil prices, forcing global central banks to return to a hawkish stance, and there is a risk of the AI bubble bursting in advance. It is recommended to construct a hedging portfolio, with gold and US bonds having strong repair space, and HALO targets having a higher priority than technology growth targets [19]. - The US import price index has been rising recently, and the EIA crude oil inventory shows a significant differentiation. These factors may jointly affect the Fed's policy judgment. The Fed maintained the interest rate unchanged in March 2026, and the expected future interest rate cut is limited. The Fed is likely to maintain the interest rate in the range of 350 - 375bp in the first half of 2026, and the interest rate cut rhythm will be postponed [20][23]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 One - Week Viewpoints - **Analysis of the bond market's limited reaction**: The bond market's reaction to overseas conflicts and economic "good start" is limited. The yield of the 10 - year Treasury active bond 250022 fluctuated and decreased this week. The uncertainty of the US - Iran conflict and the possible seasonal factors of the economic "good start" are the main reasons. The bond market shows a "desensitization" feature to fundamental data [10][15]. - **Analysis of the future trend of US bond yields**: The future of the US bond yield is mainly affected by the US - Israel - Iran conflict. There are two possible extreme paths, and corresponding asset allocation suggestions are provided [19]. - **Analysis of US economic data and Fed policy**: The US import price index is rising, the EIA crude oil inventory is differentiated, the consumer confidence index is declining, and the labor market shows short - term resilience. The Fed maintained the interest rate unchanged in March 2026, and the future interest rate cut is limited [20][23]. 3.2 Domestic and Overseas Data Summary 3.2.1 Liquidity Tracking - The net investment in the open market from March 23 to March 27 was 2819 billion yuan. The money market interest rate showed certain changes, and the issuance of interest - bearing bonds also changed compared with the previous week [34]. 3.2.2 Domestic and Overseas Macroeconomic Data Tracking - Steel prices generally increased, while LME non - ferrous metal futures official prices decreased. The prices of coal, vegetables, and other commodities also showed different trends. The prices of US stocks, bonds, and other assets fluctuated, and the exchange rates of major currencies also changed [58]. 3.3 One - Week Review of Local Government Bonds 3.3.1 Primary Market Issuance Overview - A total of 75 local government bonds were issued in the primary market this week, with an issuance amount of 308.559 billion yuan, a repayment amount of 177.962 billion yuan, and a net financing amount of 130.597 billion yuan. The main investment directions are shantytown renovation, highways, and comprehensive projects. Three provinces and cities issued local special refinancing special bonds for replacing hidden debts, with a total issuance amount of 58.956 billion yuan [86][93]. 3.3.2 Secondary Market Overview - The stock of local government bonds this week was 57.09 trillion yuan, the trading volume was 500.93 billion yuan, and the turnover rate was 0.88%. The top three provinces with active trading are Guangdong, Sichuan, and Zhejiang, and the top three active trading terms are 10Y, 30Y, and 20Y. The maturity yields of local government bonds showed a differentiated trend [101][103]. 3.3.3 Local Government Bond Issuance Plan for This Month - The issuance plans of local government bonds in some provinces and cities from March 30 to April 3 are provided [109]. 3.4 One - Week Review of the Credit Bond Market 3.4.1 Primary Market Issuance Overview - A total of 495 credit bonds were issued in the primary market this week, with a total issuance amount of 441.944 billion yuan, a total repayment amount of 298.557 billion yuan, and a net financing amount of 143.386 billion yuan, an increase of 52.009 billion yuan compared with last week. Among them, the net financing amount of urban investment bonds was 4.466 billion yuan, and the net financing amount of industrial bonds was 138.921 billion yuan [107][111]. 3.4.2 Issuance Interest Rates - The issuance interest rates of short - term financing bonds, medium - term notes, and corporate bonds decreased, while the issuance interest rate of corporate bonds was not provided [121]. 3.4.3 Secondary Market Transaction Overview - The total trading volume of credit bonds this week was 629.054 billion yuan, and the trading volume of each bond type and rating showed different characteristics [122]. 3.4.4 Maturity Yields - The maturity yields of national development bonds generally decreased, the yields of short - term financing notes and medium - term notes generally decreased, the yields of corporate bonds showed a differentiated trend, and the yields of urban investment bonds generally decreased [123][126]. 3.4.5 Credit Spreads - The credit spreads of short - term financing notes and medium - term notes showed a differentiated trend, the credit spreads of corporate bonds generally decreased, and the credit spreads of urban investment bonds generally decreased [127][130]. 3.4.6 Grade Spreads - The grade spreads of short - term financing notes, medium - term notes, corporate bonds, and urban investment bonds all showed a differentiated trend [133][140]. 3.4.7 Trading Activity - The top five most actively traded bonds of each bond type this week are provided, and the bond trading volume of the industrial industry is the largest [146][147]. 3.4.8 Changes in Subject Ratings - The subject ratings or outlooks of two companies were raised [149].

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The central bank maintained liquidity during the quarter - end, with increased net open - market injections. Interest rates in the bond market were generally in a warm - fluctuating pattern, and the 30 - year treasury bond recovered significantly. The CD yield fluctuated, and the net financing of CDs turned positive. Government bond supply declined, and the inter - bank leverage ratio decreased slightly [1][2]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Funding Situation - **Central Bank Operations**: The central bank injected 4742 billion yuan through reverse repurchase and 5000 billion yuan through 1 - year MLF this week. Reverse repurchase maturities were 2423 billion yuan, and MLF maturities were 4500 billion yuan, resulting in a net reverse - repurchase injection of 2319 billion yuan and an excess MLF roll - over of 500 billion yuan [1]. - **Funding Prices**: R001 closed at 1.39% (previous value 1.40%), DR001 remained flat at 1.32% (previous value 1.32%), R007 closed at 1.51% (previous value 1.48%), and DR007 closed at 1.44% (previous value 1.42%). The spread between DR007 and the 7 - day OMO was 3.98bp. The 6M national - share bank draft transfer discount rate was 1.06% [1]. - **Bond Yields**: The 1 - year treasury bond yield dropped 0.5bp to 1.25%, the 10 - year treasury bond yield dropped 1.27bp to 1.82%, and the 30 - year treasury bond yield dropped 3.84bp to 2.35% [1]. 2. Inter - bank Certificates of Deposit (CDs) - **Yield Changes**: The 3M CD yield dropped 1.0bp to 1.46%, the 6M CD yield rose 0.75bp to 1.48%, and the 1Y CD yield rose 1.0bp to 1.53%. The spread between the 1 - year CD and R007 narrowed 2.00bp to 1.81bp [2]. - **Net Financing**: The net financing of CDs this week was 738 billion yuan, compared with - 4031 billion yuan previously. In terms of the issuance structure, the weighted - average issuance term this week was 7.9M (previous value 8.0M), with 877.0 billion yuan of 3M CDs issued, 1324.3 billion yuan of 6M CDs issued, and 2286.5 billion yuan of 1Y CDs issued [2]. 3. Institutional Behavior - **Government Bond Supply**: This week, the net issuance of treasury bonds was 948 billion yuan, and the net issuance of local bonds was 1300 billion yuan, with a total net issuance of government bonds of 2249 billion yuan (previous value 7402 billion yuan), and a total net payment of 5930 billion yuan (previous value 6652 billion yuan). Next week, the expected net issuance of local bonds is 406 billion yuan, and the net payment of local bonds is 686 billion yuan [2]. - **Inter - bank Leverage Ratio**: The average daily volume of pledged repurchase transactions this week was 7.94 trillion yuan (previous value 8.37 trillion yuan), and the average daily inter - bank market leverage ratio was 107.12% (previous value 107.26%) [2].

Core Viewpoint - The Turkish central bank's rapid sale of approximately 58.4 tons of gold, valued at over $8 billion, is a strategic move to manage a severe economic crisis triggered by geopolitical tensions and soaring energy prices [1][3][21]. Group 1: Gold Reserves and Economic Context - The Turkish central bank's gold reserves dropped from $134.1 billion to $116.2 billion in just one week, losing nearly $18 billion in value [1][10]. - Turkey has been one of the most aggressive gold buyers globally over the past decade, increasing its reserves from 116 tons in 2011 to over 820 tons [2]. - The recent gold sell-off is primarily a response to a survival crisis, as Turkey faces skyrocketing energy bills and a critical supply disruption [3][8]. Group 2: Geopolitical Impact - The conflict initiated by the U.S. and Israel against Iran has led to a blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, significantly affecting Turkey's energy imports [5][7]. - Brent crude oil prices surged over 40%, from $73 to above $106 per barrel, exacerbating Turkey's energy import costs [6][7]. - Turkey's reliance on imports for 90% of its oil and 98% of its natural gas means that rising prices and supply disruptions have dire implications for its economy [7][8]. Group 3: Currency and Foreign Exchange Reserves - The Turkish lira has depreciated significantly, hitting a record low of approximately 44.35 lira per dollar, as foreign investors withdraw capital [10]. - In response to the currency crisis, the central bank sold over $8 billion in foreign currency reserves in just the first week of March, depleting its reserves from $543 billion to $430 billion [10][11]. - The central bank's strategy involved using foreign reserves first before resorting to gold, indicating a structured approach to crisis management [11]. Group 4: Gold Swap Mechanism - Over half of the gold reduction was executed through swaps rather than outright sales, allowing the central bank to exchange gold for dollars while retaining the option to repurchase the gold later [13][14]. - This approach minimizes market disruption and helps maintain a degree of political stability, as gold is viewed as a hedge against inflation in Turkey [15][19]. - The central bank's prior arrangement of holding approximately 111 tons of gold in the Bank of England facilitated this rapid response without logistical delays [15]. Group 5: Future Implications - Analysts suggest that the recent actions reflect a pattern seen during previous crises, with the expectation that Turkey will resume gold accumulation once stability returns [17]. - However, the sustainability of the swap agreements hinges on the duration of the conflict and the ability to manage rising energy costs without permanent loss of gold reserves [18][19]. - Continued geopolitical tensions may force Turkey to further liquidate its gold reserves, impacting global gold prices due to increased supply [19][20].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the report industry investment rating is provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The funds remained loose this week despite some disturbances such as government bond supply and OMO net - withdrawals in the first half of the week. The MLF over - renewal and OMO net - injection on Wednesday limited the impact of the quarter - end factor. Short - term interest rates remained low, and the yields of medium - and short - term policy financial bonds continued to decline [3][15]. - The cross - quarter progress of funds slowed down further this week, with the cross - quarter progress of the whole market at 35.2%, 9.3 percentage points lower than the average from 2020 - 2025. However, the disturbance to funds at the quarter - end was limited, and the actual financing cost of non - banks was at a relatively low level compared with previous quarter - ends [4][29]. - Although the scale of money market funds rebounded rapidly in February, their demand for certificates of deposit was weaker than the seasonality, and the scale of reverse repurchase lending was also relatively limited. The probability of a significant rebound in short - term interest rates after the quarter - end was relatively low [39]. - The net payment of government bonds will decrease next week. With the central bank's support, institutions are likely to achieve a smooth cross - quarter. The exogenous disturbances to funds in early April after the quarter - end are also relatively limited, and the loose pattern is expected to continue in the short term [43][67]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Money Market 3.1.1 This Week's Fund Review - The central bank's OMO had a net injection of 231.9 billion yuan this week. On Wednesday, the central bank conducted a 500 - billion - yuan MLF operation, with an over - renewal of 50 billion yuan compared with the maturity on that day. Despite the net withdrawal in the first half of the week and the large supply pressure of government bonds on Monday, the funds remained loose. DR001 remained at 1.32% for 11 consecutive trading days [3][15]. - The trading volume of pledged repurchase fluctuated and declined, with the average daily trading volume decreasing by 0.44 trillion yuan to 7.94 trillion yuan compared with last week. The overall scale of pledged repurchase first decreased and then increased, rising above 12 trillion yuan again on Friday. The net lending of large - scale banks first decreased and then increased, and was lower than last week as a whole; the net lending of small - scale banks continued to rise after Tuesday; the overall net lending of banks also first decreased and then increased, and was higher than last week [4][24]. - The non - bank rigid lending increased slightly continuously, mainly due to the large increase in the lending of money market funds. The non - bank rigid borrowing scale began to increase continuously on Tuesday, mainly due to the large increase in other products and insurance. The seasonally adjusted fund gap index fluctuated at a low level in the first half of the week and continued to rise after Wednesday, rising to - 314.6 billion yuan on Friday, higher than - 866.3 billion yuan last Friday; while the pre - seasonally adjusted index dropped to - 954.7 billion yuan, mainly affected by the large increase in the net lending of small - scale banks excluded from the seasonal adjustment [4][24]. - The cross - quarter progress of funds slowed down further. As of Friday, the cross - quarter progress of inter - bank funds was 35.4%, at the lowest level in the same period of previous years, and the gap with previous years continued to widen; the cross - quarter progress of the exchange slowed down again after accelerating on Tuesday, and the cross - quarter progress on Friday was 34.6%, also dropping to the lowest level in the same period of previous years. The cross - month progress of the whole market was 35.2%, 9.3 percentage points lower than the average from 2020 - 2025 [29]. 3.1.2 Next Week's Fund Outlook - The net payment of government bonds this week was 606.4 billion yuan. There is no treasury bond issuance plan next week. The issuance scale of local bonds in 5 regions such as Henan, Chongqing, and Sichuan is 118.4 billion yuan, including 2.1 billion yuan of new general bonds, 29.7 billion yuan of new special bonds, and 86.6 billion yuan of refinancing bonds, among which the issuance of replacement bonds is 11.7 billion yuan. Considering the time lag between issuance and payment, the payment scale of government bonds next week will drop to 146.4 billion yuan, the maturity scale will drop to 131.4 billion yuan, and the net payment scale will drop to 15 billion yuan [40][43]. - The actual issuance scale of treasury bonds in March was 1.38 trillion yuan, with a net financing of 300 billion yuan, in line with expectations. The issuance scale of local bonds in March was 1.08 trillion yuan, with a net financing of 670 billion yuan, lower than the expected 770 billion yuan. The overall actual issuance scale of government bonds in March was 2.47 trillion yuan, with a net financing of 960 billion yuan, lower than the expected 1.07 trillion yuan. The cumulative net financing of government bonds in the first quarter was 3.56 trillion yuan, lower than 4.1 trillion yuan in the same period of 2025 [56]. - Seven regions newly announced the Q2 local bond issuance plan this week. Currently, 22 regions have announced the Q2 plan, with a total scale of 1.9904 trillion yuan, still lower than the actual issuance of 2.0865 trillion yuan in Q1. It is estimated that the issuance scale of local bonds in April may be 1.03 trillion yuan, with a net financing of about 570 billion yuan, revised down by 130 billion yuan compared with last week's forecast. It is estimated that the issuance scale of local bonds in May and June will be 1.02 trillion yuan respectively, with net financings of 750 billion yuan and 490 billion yuan respectively. It is estimated that the issuance scale of government bonds in April, May, and June 2026 will be 2.36 trillion yuan, 2.39 trillion yuan, and 2.62 trillion yuan respectively, with net financings of 1.07 trillion yuan, 1.42 trillion yuan, and 1.06 trillion yuan respectively. The cumulative net financing scale of government bonds in the second quarter is expected to be about 3.55 trillion yuan, still lower than 3.7 trillion yuan in the same period of 2025 [60][62]. - The maturity scale of 7 - day reverse repurchases next week will rise to 474.2 billion yuan, and the net payment of government bonds will drop from 606.4 billion yuan this week to 15 billion yuan, with net repayments in the first half of the week. The new stock of Beijie Stock Exchange, Saiying Electronics, will be issued online on March 30, with a fundraising scale of about 270 million yuan, which may have a relatively lower impact on the exchange fund prices in the first half of the week. Overall, the maturity volume of reverse repurchases next week is lower than that in previous cross - quarter periods. With the central bank's support, institutions are likely to achieve a smooth cross - quarter. The exogenous disturbances to funds in early April after the quarter - end are also relatively limited, and the loose pattern is expected to continue in the short term [67]. 3.2 Inter - bank Certificates of Deposit - The 1 - year Shibor rate decreased by 1.45 BP to 1.5405% compared with March 20. The 1 - year AAA - grade inter - bank certificate of deposit secondary rate increased by 1 BP to 1.525% compared with March 20 [68]. - The issuance scale of inter - bank certificates of deposit increased while the maturity scale decreased this week, and the certificates of deposit turned to net financing of 7.27 billion yuan, an increase of 48.73 billion yuan compared with last week. The net financing scales of state - owned banks, joint - stock banks, city commercial banks, and rural commercial banks were - 55.4 billion yuan, 131.7 billion yuan, 27.6 billion yuan, and - 11 billion yuan respectively. The 9 - month - term certificates of deposit had the largest issuance volume this week, accounting for 32%, and the issuance proportion of 1 - year certificates of deposit decreased by 5 percentage points to 30% compared with last week. The maturity scale of certificates of deposit next week is about 15.51 billion yuan, a decrease of 54.42 billion yuan compared with this week [74]. - The issuance success rates of joint - stock banks, city commercial banks, and rural commercial banks for certificates of deposit decreased month - on - month, while that of state - owned banks increased. Except for the relatively low issuance success rate of rural commercial banks, the others were near the average level in recent years. The issuance spread of 1 - year certificates of deposit between city commercial banks and joint - stock banks narrowed [75]. - The relative supply - demand strength index of certificates of deposit first decreased and then increased this week, rising by 0.2 percentage points to 29.3% for the whole week. The willingness of money market funds to increase holdings in the primary market increased slightly, the willingness of wealth management products and funds to increase holdings was stable, and the willingness of other products to increase holdings in the secondary market decreased. In terms of different terms, the supply - demand indexes of 1 - month and 1 - year certificates of deposit increased, while those of 3 - month, 6 - month, and 9 - month certificates of deposit decreased, with relatively large declines in 6 - month and 9 - month certificates of deposit [85]. 3.3 Bill Market The bill interest rate declined overall this week. As of March 27, the 3 - month and 6 - month bill interest rates of state - owned and joint - stock banks decreased by 13 BP and 11 BP respectively compared with March 20, to 1.30% and 1.06% [92]. 3.4 Bond Trading Sentiment Tracking - Interest - rate bonds fluctuated downward this week, and the credit spreads of medium - and long - term bonds compressed. Large - scale banks tended to reduce their bond holdings overall, and the scale of their increased holdings of treasury bonds also decreased. They tended to reduce their holdings of treasury bonds within 1 year and 5 - year treasury bonds, the willingness to increase holdings of 7 - year treasury bonds decreased, but they turned to be inclined to increase holdings of treasury bonds over 10 years. At the same time, they tended to reduce their holdings of policy financial bonds within 1 year, the willingness to reduce holdings of 1 - 3 - year policy financial bonds increased, but the willingness to reduce holdings of local bonds decreased [95]. - Trading - type institutions tended to increase their bond holdings overall. Among them, the willingness of securities companies to reduce holdings decreased, the willingness of fund companies to increase holdings increased, but the willingness of other institutions and products to increase holdings decreased [95]. - Allocation - type institutions' willingness to increase bond holdings increased overall. Among them, the willingness of small - and medium - sized banks to reduce holdings decreased, the willingness of wealth management products to increase holdings increased, but the willingness of insurance companies to increase holdings decreased [95].

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The bond market continued its volatile recovery, with medium - to long - term credit bonds performing strongly, and credit spreads showed different trends across various bond types [2][3] - Credit bond yields declined following interest rates, and medium - and long - term credit spreads compressed [3][10] - Most urban investment bond spreads decreased by 1 - 2BP, while spreads of private and mixed - ownership real - estate industrial bonds continued to widen [4][15] - Most yields of secondary and perpetual bonds declined, and medium - to long - term varieties performed strongly [4][33] - The excess spreads of industrial perpetual bonds increased slightly, while those of urban investment perpetual bonds remained generally stable [5][35] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog 3.1 Credit Bond Yields Follow Interest Rates Down, and Medium - and Long - Term Credit Spreads Compress - From March 23 to March 27, bond interest rates declined slightly overall. The yields of 1Y, 3Y, 5Y, and 10Y China Development Bank bonds decreased by 1BP, while the 7Y yield increased by 1BP [10] - Credit bond yields generally declined following interest rates. Bonds with a term of over 3Y performed strongly. For 1Y bonds, yields of AA and above grades decreased by 0 - 1BP, while the AA - grade yield increased by 3BP. Similar trends were observed for other terms [10] - Medium - and long - term credit spreads compressed, with different trends for different grades and terms. Rating spreads and term spreads also showed various changes [10] 3.2 Most Urban Investment Bond Spreads Decrease by 1 - 2BP - For external ratings, spreads of AAA and AA + grade urban investment platforms were mostly flat or decreased by 1 - 2BP compared to last week. Some regions had specific changes, such as a 3BP decrease in Liaoning and Inner Mongolia for AAA platforms [15] - AA - grade platform spreads mostly decreased by 1 - 3BP, with specific regional differences [15] - By administrative level, spreads of provincial, prefecture - level, and district - level platforms generally decreased by 1 - 2BP, with some regions showing larger changes [19] 3.3 Most Industrial Bond Spreads Decrease, while Spreads of Private and Mixed - Ownership Real - Estate Bonds Continue to Widen - Central and state - owned enterprise real - estate bond spreads decreased by 1 - 3BP, private real - estate bond spreads increased by 3BP, and mixed - ownership real - estate bond spreads increased by 51BP [25] - Spreads of coal bonds of AAA, AA +, and AA grades decreased by 2BP, 1BP, and 5BP respectively. Spreads of AAA - grade steel bonds decreased by 1BP, and AA + remained flat. Spreads of AAA and AA + grade chemical bonds both decreased by 1BP [25] 3.4 Most Yields of Secondary and Perpetual Bonds Decline, and Medium - to Long - Term Varieties Perform Strongly - For 1Y secondary and perpetual bonds, yields decreased by 0 - 1BP, and spreads were mostly flat or increased by 1BP. For other terms, yields and spreads showed different trends, with medium - to long - term yields generally decreasing and spreads compressing [33] 3.5 Excess Spreads of Industrial Perpetual Bonds Increase Slightly, while Those of Urban Investment Perpetual Bonds Remain Generally Stable - The excess spread of industrial AAA - grade 3Y perpetual bonds increased by 0.52BP to 9.48BP, reaching the 15.55% quantile since 2015. The excess spread of industrial 5Y perpetual bonds increased by 0.01BP to 13.21BP, reaching the 36.24% quantile [35] - The excess spread of urban investment AAA - grade 3Y perpetual bonds decreased by 0.05BP to 7.01BP, reaching the 15.77% quantile. The excess spread of urban investment 5Y perpetual bonds increased by 0.29BP to 10.93BP, reaching the 21.64% quantile [35] 3.6 Credit Spread Database Compilation Instructions - Market - wide credit spreads, commercial bank secondary and perpetual spreads, and urban investment/industrial perpetual bond credit spreads are calculated based on ChinaBond medium - and short - term note and ChinaBond perpetual bond data, with historical quantiles starting from the beginning of 2015 [37] - Urban investment and industrial bond - related credit spreads are compiled and statistically analyzed by the Huafu Securities Research Institute, with historical quantiles starting from the beginning of 2015 [37] - The calculation methods for individual bond credit spreads, bank secondary capital bond/perpetual bond excess spreads, and industrial/urban investment perpetual bond excess spreads are provided, along with sample screening criteria [39]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent decoupling of U.S. Treasury yields from rising oil prices and falling stock markets, indicating a shift in market pricing logic towards concerns about long-term economic growth and potential recession rather than short-term inflation fears [1][2]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - U.S. Treasury yields unexpectedly fell to 3.90%, breaking the recent trend of rising yields alongside oil prices, which reached a multi-year high of $99.64 per barrel for WTI crude [1]. - The decoupling of asset prices suggests that investors are increasingly worried about long-term economic stagnation or recession, moving away from short-term inflation concerns driven by high energy prices [1][2]. Group 2: Oil Market Impact - The strong performance of the oil market is a key driver of recent asset volatility, with ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East pushing prices higher and leading to concerns about supply shortages and inventory depletion [3]. - Investors are pricing in the potential for prolonged conflict and tightening supply rather than expecting a quick resolution to the current energy crisis [3]. Group 3: Stock Market Performance - The Nasdaq Composite Index has officially entered correction territory, dropping over 3% this week and marking a 10% decline from its historical peak, while the S&P 500 has recorded its longest losing streak since May 2022 [4][5]. - Technology stocks have been particularly hard hit, with the Nasdaq's forward P/E ratio premium dropping to 4.4%, the lowest since January 2019, compared to a premium of 35.7% in October of the previous year [5]. Group 4: Debt Market Pressures - The U.S. Treasury market faces upward pressure on yields due to increased borrowing needs to cover war costs and refinance debt at higher interest rates, as indicated by recent Treasury auctions that yielded higher-than-expected rates [6]. - Market expectations for monetary policy have shifted dramatically, with participants moving from anticipating rate cuts to pricing in future rate hikes, reflecting the dual pressures of high inflation and weak growth [6].

Group 1 - The article discusses the unusual market behavior where oil prices surge, U.S. stocks decline, and U.S. Treasury yields unexpectedly fall, indicating a shift in market pricing logic [4][5][7] - The WTI crude oil futures reached a multi-year high of $99.64 per barrel, while the Nasdaq Composite Index entered correction territory, reflecting the impact of ongoing geopolitical tensions [4][9] - Investors are transitioning their focus from short-term inflation fears driven by rising energy prices to deeper concerns about long-term economic stagnation and recession risks [4][7][10] Group 2 - The strong performance of the oil market is identified as a core source of recent asset volatility, with concerns shifting from short-term disruptions to long-term supply shortages [8] - The Nasdaq Composite Index has dropped over 3% this week, officially entering a correction phase, while the S&P 500 Index has recorded its longest losing streak since May 2022 [9] - The U.S. Treasury market faces upward pressure on yields due to increased borrowing needs from the government to address war costs and refinance debt at higher interest rates [10][11]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating The given content does not mention the investment rating of the industry. 2. Core View On March 26, the central bank's reverse repurchase operation volume increased, the capital market was generally loose, the bond market continued its warm trend, the main indices of the convertible bond market collectively declined, and most convertible bond issues fell. Yields on U.S. Treasuries of various maturities generally rose significantly, and yields on 10-year government bonds of major European economies generally rose significantly [2]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Bond Market News - **Domestic News**: Trump plans to visit China from May 14 - 15; the Ministry of Commerce will optimize the inbound consumption environment and expand service exports; the National Healthcare Security Administration will cover the whole population with long - term care insurance in about 3 years; the State Administration for Market Regulation held an enterprise fair competition symposium [4][5][6]. - **International News**: Trump postponed the strike on Iranian energy facilities by ten days; U.S. Treasury auctions this week were weak, and the decline of U.S. Treasuries intensified [7]. - **Commodities**: WTI May crude oil futures rose 4.61% to $94.48 per barrel, Brent May crude oil futures rose 5.66% to $108.01 per barrel, COMEX gold futures fell 2.131.35% to $4407.50 per ounce, and NYMEX May natural gas futures fell 0.37% to $2.974 per million British thermal units [8]. 3.2 Capital Market - **Open Market Operations**: On March 26, the central bank conducted 224 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations with an operating interest rate of 1.40%, and the net capital injection on the day was 211 billion yuan [10]. - **Capital Interest Rates**: On March 26, the central bank's reverse repurchase operation volume increased, and the capital market was generally loose. DR001 remained flat at 1.321%, and DR007 fell 0.09bp to 1.444% [11]. 3.3 Bond Market Dynamics - **Interest - rate Bonds** - **Spot Bond Yield Trends**: On March 26, the bond market continued its warm trend. As of 20:00 Beijing time, the yield of the 10 - year Treasury bond active issue 250022 fell 0.40bp to 1.8230%, and the yield of the 10 - year China Development Bank bond active issue 250220 remained flat at 1.9730% [14]. - **Bond Tendering Situation**: Information on the tendering of multiple bonds such as 25 Guokai Qingfa 07 (Additional Issue 19) is provided [16]. - **Credit Bonds** - **Secondary Market Transaction Abnormalities**: On March 26, 4 industrial bonds and 1 urban investment bond had transaction price deviations of more than 10% [17][18]. - **Credit Bond Events**: Companies such as Taihe Group, Sunshine City, and Sunac Real Estate announced debt - related issues, and some companies cancelled bond issuances [19][21]. - **Convertible Bonds** - **Equity and Convertible Bond Indices**: On March 26, the three major A - share indices and convertible bond market indices collectively fell. The trading volume of the convertible bond market was 61.446 billion yuan, a decrease of 13.382 billion yuan from the previous trading day [20]. - **Convertible Bond Tracking**: Longda Convertible Bond announced that it was about to trigger the conversion price downward - revision clause, and Tianhao Convertible Bond and Tianyuan Convertible Bond announced that they were about to trigger the early redemption clause [26]. - **Overseas Bond Markets** - **U.S. Bond Market**: On March 26, yields on U.S. Treasuries of various maturities generally rose significantly. The 2/10 - year U.S. Treasury yield spread narrowed by 3bp to 46bp, and the 5/30 - year U.S. Treasury yield spread narrowed by 8bp to 85bp. The break - even inflation rate of the 10 - year U.S. Treasury Inflation - Protected Securities (TIPS) rose 3bp to 2.34% [23][24][25]. - **European Bond Market**: On March 26, yields on 10 - year government bonds of major European economies generally rose significantly [26][27]. - **Daily Price Changes of Chinese - funded U.S. Dollar Bonds**: Information on the daily price changes of Chinese - funded U.S. dollar bonds as of the close on March 26 is provided [28].

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) held a meeting to discuss financial stability work for 2026, emphasizing the importance of adhering to the guiding principles of Xi Jinping's thought and the directives from the 20th National Congress of the Communist Party of China [1] Group 1: 2025 Financial Stability Achievements - In 2025, the PBOC effectively implemented the decisions of the Central Committee and the State Council, focusing on maintaining stability while seeking progress, enhancing financial risk monitoring and assessment, and preventing key financial risks and external shocks [1] - The overall operation of China's financial sector was stable, with a continuous reduction in financial risks and a healthy state of financial institutions [1] Group 2: 2026 Financial Stability Work Requirements - For 2026, the financial stability work will prioritize political leadership, theoretical reinforcement, and the integration of party building with business operations to ensure high standards and quality in the "14th Five-Year Plan" period [2] - The PBOC aims to improve the systemic financial risk prevention and resolution framework, deepen the application of technology, and enhance monitoring, assessment, and early correction of financial risks [2] - The focus will also be on market-oriented and legal principles to manage key financial risks and reduce existing risks in an orderly manner, alongside reforms in key financial institutions and increasing capital support through multiple channels [2] - The PBOC will strengthen its capacity to prevent financial risks in an open environment and maintain national financial security, ensuring a robust financial stability guarantee system and sufficient resources for risk management [2]