Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for precious metals in the non - ferrous and precious metals sector is "volatile and bearish" [1] 2. Report Core View - The war between the US, Israel, and Iran continued last week, causing international crude oil prices to remain high and increasing global inflation expectations. The Fed and other central banks maintained interest rates, with the Fed and ECB raising inflation expectations. The market predicts a more than 20% probability of the Fed raising interest rates by 25 basis points by June. The dollar index fell slightly, the 10 - year US Treasury yield rose, and the US stock and bond markets declined on Friday. Precious metals prices dropped, and after a short - term rapid decline, the market is brewing a rebound. Attention should be paid to the evolution of the Iranian situation [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog 3.1 Market Quotes - COMEX gold futures fell 2.47% to $4492.00 per ounce, and COMEX silver futures fell 4.78% to $67.81 per ounce. Shanghai gold night trading closed down 1.22% at 1016.12 yuan per gram, and Shanghai silver closed down 1.77% at 17139 yuan per kilogram [1] 3.2 Important Information - On March 20, the holdings of the world's largest gold ETF, SPDR Gold Trust, decreased by 5.144 tons to 1056.991 tons, while the holdings of the world's largest silver ETF, iShares Silver Trust, increased by 61.97 tons to 15248.91 tons [1] - According to CME's "FedWatch", the probability of the Fed raising interest rates by 25 basis points in April is 12.4%, and the probability of keeping interest rates unchanged is 87.6%. By June, the probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point rate hike is 21.9%, the probability of a 50 - basis - point rate hike is 1.6%, and the probability of keeping interest rates unchanged is 76.5% [1] - Trump demanded that Iran open the Strait of Hormuz within 48 hours, or he would destroy the power plants. Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps strongly responded. Many countries are trying to mediate to end the war, and Iran has put forward six conditions for a cease - fire [1] - The Iranian Foreign Ministry stated on the 22nd that the Strait of Hormuz is not blocked, and under certain conditions, ships can still sail. Iran will handle ships from the US, Israel, and other aggressive countries in accordance with the law [1] 3.3 Market Logic - The war between the US, Israel, and Iran led to high international crude oil prices and increased inflation expectations. The US PPI in February rose 3.4% year - on - year, higher than expected, and the number of initial jobless claims was lower than expected. Central banks maintained interest rates and raised inflation expectations. The dollar index fell, the 10 - year US Treasury yield rose, and the US stock and bond markets declined on Friday. Precious metals prices dropped, and the market is brewing a rebound [2] 3.4 Trading Strategy - The market's short - term volatility has increased, and investors should control their positions and prevent risks [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the bond sector is "oscillation" for TL, T, TF, and TS [1] 2. Core View of the Report - The bond futures are expected to oscillate in the short - term based on various market factors, including economic data, central bank policies, and geopolitical events [1][2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Review - On Friday, most of the main contracts of bond futures opened lower, with the morning session seeing a downward trend and the afternoon session showing horizontal fluctuations. By the close, the 30 - year bond futures main contract TL2606 fell 0.42%, the 10 - year T2606 fell 0.09%, the 5 - year TF2606 fell 0.06%, and the 2 - year TS2606 fell 0.01% [1] Important Information - Open market: The central bank conducted 20.5 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations on Friday, with 37.5 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing, resulting in a net withdrawal of 17 billion yuan. The loan prime rate (LPR) announced on March 20th remained stable for the tenth consecutive month, with the 1 - year LPR at 3.0% and the 5 - year and above LPR at 3.5% [1] - Money market: On Friday, the overnight interest rate in the inter - bank money market remained low. The weighted average of DR001 was 1.32% throughout the day, the same as the previous trading day, and the weighted average of DR007 was 1.42%, down from 1.43% in the previous trading day [1] - Cash bond market: On Friday, the closing yields of inter - bank government bonds showed mixed changes compared to the previous trading day. The yield of 2 - year government bonds decreased by 0.19 BP to 1.31%, the 5 - year yield decreased by 0.25 BP to 1.56%, the 10 - year yield increased by 0.47 BP to 1.83%, and the 30 - year yield decreased by 0.29 BP to 2.39% [1] - Fed rate hike probability: According to CME's "FedWatch", the probability of the Fed raising interest rates by 25 basis points in April is 12.4%, and the probability of keeping interest rates unchanged is 87.6%. By June, the probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point rate hike is 21.9%, the probability of a cumulative 50 - basis - point rate hike is 1.6%, and the probability of keeping interest rates unchanged is 76.5% [1] - Geopolitical situation: Trump demanded that Iran open the Strait of Hormuz within 48 hours, or he would destroy the power plants. Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps responded strongly. Iran's Foreign Ministry stated on the 22nd that the Strait of Hormuz was not blocked, and ships could continue to sail under certain conditions [1][2] Market Logic - From January to February, national fixed - asset investment increased by 1.8% year - on - year, against a market expectation of a 2.7% decline. The added value of large - scale industries increased by 6.3% year - on - year, better than the expected 5.2%. Social consumer goods retail sales increased by 2.8% year - on - year, higher than the expected 2.4%. Exports in US dollars increased by 21.8% year - on - year, better than the estimated 7.3%. China's CPI in February increased by 1.3% year - on - year, and PPI decreased by 0.9% year - on - year, both exceeding market expectations. On March 18th, the central bank's Party Committee expanded meeting pointed out that it would guide and regulate interest rates. On Friday, the Wind All - A index opened slightly higher, fluctuated horizontally in the morning, and declined in the afternoon, closing down 1.23% with a trading volume of 2.3 trillion yuan, slightly higher than the previous trading day [2] Trading Strategy - Traders are advised to conduct band operations [2]

Group 1: Report Overview - Report Title: Urea Morning Report [2] - Report Date: March 23, 2026 [2] - Analyst: Zhu Tianyi from Dayue Futures Investment Consulting Department [3] Group 2: Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report Group 3: Core Viewpoints - The overall fundamentals of urea are neutral, with high daily production and operating rates year-on-year, partial device maintenance in the short term but still high daily production, sufficient overall supply, recovery in industrial demand, differentiation in agricultural demand, inventory depletion, and the external price continuing to strengthen due to geopolitical factors, widening the export price gap [4]. - The urea main contract is expected to fluctuate strongly, and it is predicted to fluctuate today [4]. Group 4: Urea Overview Fundamentals - Current daily production and operating rates are at a high level year-on-year. There will be some device maintenance in the short term, but the daily production will remain high, with sufficient overall supply. The industrial demand has recovered, and the operating rates of compound fertilizers and melamine have significantly increased. The agricultural demand is differentiated, and the comprehensive inventory is being depleted. The external price has continued to strengthen due to geopolitical factors, widening the export price gap. The domestic price increase is limited by guidance. The current spot price of the delivery product is 1860 (with no change), and the overall fundamentals are neutral [4]. Basis - The basis of the UR2605 contract is 19, and the premium/discount ratio is 1.0%, indicating a bullish trend [4]. Inventory - The UR comprehensive inventory is 97.6 tons (a decrease of 14.2 tons), indicating a bearish trend [4]. Disk - The 20-day moving average of the UR main contract is upward, and the closing price is below the 20-day line, indicating a neutral position [4]. Main Position - The net short position of the UR main contract is decreasing, indicating a bearish trend [4]. Expectation - The urea main contract is expected to fluctuate strongly. The daily production is at a high level year-on-year, the industrial demand has recovered, the agricultural demand is differentiated, and the inventory is being depleted. It is predicted that the UR will fluctuate today [4]. Group 5: Factors Affecting Urea Bullish Factors - Agricultural demand is gradually entering the peak season [5]. - Overseas prices continue to strengthen [5]. Bearish Factors - Daily production is at a historical high [5]. Main Logic - International prices and marginal changes in domestic demand [5]. Main Risk Points - Changes in export policies [5] Group 6: Market Data Spot Market - The price of the spot delivery product is 1860, with no change; the price of Shandong spot is 1870, a decrease of 10; the price of Henan spot is 1860, with no change; the FOB China price is 4451 [6]. Futures Market - The price of the 05 contract is 1841, a decrease of 18; the price of UR01 is 1870, a decrease of 14; the price of UR05 is 1841, a decrease of 18; the price of UR09 is 1894, a decrease of 15 [6]. Inventory - The warehouse receipt quantity is 8499, with no change; the UR comprehensive inventory is 97.6 tons, a decrease of 17.1 tons; the UR manufacturer inventory is 80.9 tons, a decrease of 14.9 tons; the UR port inventory is 16.7 tons, a decrease of 2.2 tons [6]. Group 7: Supply and Demand Balance Sheet - Urea - From 2018 to 2024, the urea production capacity, output, and apparent consumption have generally shown an upward trend, with corresponding changes in the import dependence and consumption growth rate [9].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The overall price of oils and fats is expected to fluctuate strongly. The domestic fundamentals are loose, and the domestic supply of oils and fats is stable. Sino - US relations are tense, which puts pressure on the price of US soybeans. The inventory of Malaysian palm oil is neutral, and the demand has improved. Indonesia's B40 promotes domestic consumption, and the B50 plan is expected to be implemented in 2026. The soaring international crude oil price drives up the oil price. The domestic fundamentals of oils and fats are neutral, and the import inventory is stable [2][3][4] Summary by Related Catalogs Daily View - Soybean Oil - **Fundamentals**: The MPOB report shows that in December, Malaysian palm oil production decreased by 5.46% month - on - month to 1.8298 million tons, exports increased by 8.55% month - on - month to 1.3165 million tons, and the end - of - month inventory increased by 7.59% month - on - month to 3.0506 million tons. The report is slightly bearish, and the inventory data exceeded expectations. Currently, the shipping survey agency shows that the export data of Malaysian palm oil in January increased by 29% month - on - month. Entering the production - reduction season, the supply pressure of palm oil decreases. It is neutral [2] - **Basis**: The spot price of soybean oil is 8840, the basis is 212, and the spot price is at a premium to the futures price. It is bullish [2] - **Inventory**: On January 9, the commercial inventory of soybean oil was 1.02 million tons, compared with 1.08 million tons previously, a month - on - month decrease of 60,000 tons and a year - on - year increase of 14.7%. It is bearish [2] - **Market**: The futures price is running above the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is upward. It is bullish [2] - **Main Position**: The long position of the main soybean oil contract decreased. It is bullish [2] - **Expectation**: The price of soybean oil Y2605 will fluctuate in the range of 8400 - 8800 [2] Daily View - Palm Oil - **Fundamentals**: Similar to soybean oil, the MPOB report is slightly bearish, and the inventory data exceeded expectations. The export data in January increased by 29% month - on - month, and the supply pressure will decrease in the production - reduction season. It is neutral [3] - **Basis**: The spot price of palm oil is 9740, the basis is 22, and the spot price is at a premium to the futures price. It is neutral [3] - **Inventory**: On January 9, the port inventory of palm oil was 736,000 tons, compared with 733,800 tons previously, a month - on - month increase of 2200 tons and a year - on - year increase of 46%. It is bearish [3] - **Market**: The futures price is running above the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is upward. It is bullish [3] - **Main Position**: The short position of the main palm oil contract decreased. It is bearish [3] - **Expectation**: The price of palm oil P2605 will fluctuate in the range of 9500 - 9900 [3] Daily View - Rapeseed Oil - **Fundamentals**: Similar to soybean oil and palm oil, the MPOB report is slightly bearish, and the inventory data exceeded expectations. The export data in January increased by 29% month - on - month, and the supply pressure will decrease in the production - reduction season. It is neutral [4] - **Basis**: The spot price of rapeseed oil is 10300, the basis is 424, and the spot price is at a premium to the futures price. It is bullish [4] - **Inventory**: On January 9, the commercial inventory of rapeseed oil was 250,000 tons, compared with 270,000 tons previously, a month - on - month decrease of 20,000 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 44%. It is bullish [4] - **Market**: The futures price is running above the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is upward. It is bullish [4] - **Main Position**: The short position of the main rapeseed oil contract increased. It is bearish [4] - **Expectation**: The price of rapeseed oil OI2605 will fluctuate in the range of 9600 - 10000 [4] Recent利多利空Analysis - **Likely**: The US soybean stock - to - sales ratio remains around 4%, and the supply is tight. There is a tremor season for palm oil [5] - **Unlikely**: The price of oils and fats is at a relatively high historical level, and the domestic inventory of oils and fats continues to accumulate. The macro - economy is weak, and the expected production of related oils and fats is high [5] - **Main Logic**: The global fundamentals of oils and fats are relatively loose [5]

Group 1 - The short - term, medium - term, and intraday views of rebar 2605 are shock, shock, and shock - weak respectively, and it is recommended to pay attention to the support at the MA5 line. The core logic is that the supply - demand pattern is weakly stable and steel prices continue to fluctuate [2] Group 2 - The weekend steel spot prices rose slightly with average trading volume. The supply - demand pattern of rebar has improved, the inventory inflection point has appeared, and the production of construction steel mills is active, with rebar output continuously rising and supply pressure increasing. Rebar demand continues to seasonally improve, with weekly apparent demand rising, but high - frequency daily trading volume is average. The improvement in subsequent demand needs to be tracked. Currently, rebar prices are rising due to cost support from strong raw materials, but the fundamentals have not changed substantially, and the upside space is limited. It is expected to continue the shock trend, and attention should be paid to demand performance [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report provides a comprehensive analysis of various industries and commodities, including macroeconomics, finance, black commodities, non - ferrous metals, agricultural products, and energy chemicals. It assesses the current market situation, supply - demand relationships, and price trends of each sector, and gives corresponding trading strategies and investment suggestions based on these analyses [2][6][12]. Summary by Directory 1. Commodity Trend Judgments - **Based on Fundamental Analysis**: For commodities like live hogs, short - fiber, and fuel oil, trend judgments (such as trend空头, 震荡偏空, 震荡, 震荡偏多, trend多头) are made based on fundamental factors [2]. - **Based on Quantitative Indicators**: For commodities like manganese silicon, soybean No.1, and rubber, trend judgments (偏空, 震荡, 偏多) are made based on quantitative indicators such as volume - price factors [4]. 2. Macro News - **Interest Rates**: China's March LPR remained unchanged for 10 consecutive months. Experts predict a possible 10 - 20 basis - point interest rate cut in the middle of the year, and the 5 - year - plus LPR may be further reduced to stabilize the property market [6]. - **Financial Laws**: The draft financial law aims to build a capital market that is safe, regulated, transparent, open, dynamic, and resilient, promoting the coordinated development of investment and financing and supporting the entry of medium - and long - term funds into the market [6]. - **International Affairs**: Tensions in the Middle East, especially the Iran - US conflict, have led to disruptions in oil supply, with the US considering military deployment and Iran threatening counter - attacks. There are also concerns about the closure of key shipping lanes like the Strait of Hormuz and the Bab el - Mandeb Strait [6][9]. - **Corporate News**: Tesla is seeking to purchase $2.9 billion worth of photovoltaic manufacturing equipment from China. Yushu Technology is applying for a listing on the STAR Market, with significant revenue and profit growth in 2025. The IPO financing in the Hong Kong stock market has exceeded HK$100 billion this year [7]. - **Domestic Policies**: The National Development and Reform Commission and the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs have called on pig - farming enterprises to adjust production to balance supply and demand. Nanjing has introduced policies to stabilize the property market, including mortgage interest subsidies and tax adjustments [8]. - **Central Bank Policies**: The Fed may cut interest rates three times this year, while the European Central Bank may raise interest rates 2 - 3 times this year [8][9]. 3. Macro - finance - **Stock Index Futures**: It is recommended to wait and see, and consider right - side trial long positions when trading volume increases. The A - share market shows significant differentiation, and the Iran situation has suppressed risk appetite, but the central bank's statement to maintain market stability has boosted confidence [12]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: It is advisable to wait for the odds point and consider left - side long positions as the bond market gradually has odds. The bond market is affected by factors such as capital supply and inflation expectations, and the yield curve is likely to remain steep [13][14]. 4. Black Commodities - **Steel and Iron Ore**: Steel demand is weak, with low - profit steel mills and stable supply. Iron ore supply and demand are both strong. Short - term steel long positions should be closed at high prices, and iron ore should be sold with a wide - straddle strategy [16][17]. - **Soda Ash and Glass**: They are affected by geopolitical energy sentiment. Soda ash supply is high, and glass supply has cold - repair and ignition expectations. It is recommended to wait and see [18]. 5. Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials - **Copper**: Due to geopolitical tensions, inflation pressure has increased, and the expectation of interest rate cuts has decreased. Copper prices will be under pressure and fluctuate. However, the improvement in fundamentals may support prices in the medium and long term [20][21]. - **Zinc**: Inventory has decreased, and it is advisable to adopt a short - bias trading strategy [22]. - **Lead**: Inventory has stopped rising, and it is recommended to observe the price rebound and trade with a range - bound strategy [24]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: Supply and demand are marginally weakening, and prices will be under pressure and fluctuate [26]. - **Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon**: Industrial silicon will fluctuate, and it is advisable to consider selling out - of - the - money put options. Polysilicon will fluctuate weakly, and caution is needed due to low liquidity [27]. 6. Agricultural Products - **Cotton**: It is affected by increased imports and geopolitical conflicts, and is in a high - level adjustment. In the long term, the decrease in cotton supply may support prices [30][31]. - **Sugar**: There is a divergence in the global sugar supply outlook. Domestic sugar prices will fluctuate and rebound, but there are still supply pressures [32][33]. - **Eggs**: Consumption has recovered in the short term, but supply pressure is large. The upside of spot prices is limited, and futures prices may face pressure [36][37]. - **Apples**: High - quality apples may continue to be strong, and the market is expected to be stable and strong in the short term [38]. - **Corn**: It is recommended to be cautious about chasing high prices and consider a 5 - 7 reverse spread strategy. Low inventory supports prices, but policy regulation and wheat substitution may suppress prices [39]. - **Jujubes**: The market is expected to be range - bound and weak [40]. - **Pigs**: It is advisable to consider selling out - of - the - money call options on near - month contracts. Supply pressure is high, but inventory may start to decline [41]. 7. Energy Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: The Strait of Hormuz remains closed, and supply risks are increasing. The market has not fully priced in the supply shortage [41]. - **Fuel Oil**: It will follow the price of crude oil and fluctuate at a high level as long as geopolitical risks remain [43]. - **Plastics**: Affected by the Iran conflict, prices may be slightly supported in the short term, but the long - term trend depends on the end of the war [44]. - **Rubber**: It is advisable to be cautious in unilateral trading. Pay attention to narrowing price spreads and consider selling put options after full - scale tapping [45]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: Prices may continue to rise due to cost factors, but high volatility is expected. It is advisable to wait and see [46]. - **Methanol**: The current supply - demand situation has slightly improved, but it is greatly affected by the Iran situation. It may be slightly strong in the short term, but may correct if the war eases [47]. - **Caustic Soda**: The price is affected by supply - side production cuts and export increases, as well as futures premium. It is necessary to closely monitor the market [48][49]. - **Asphalt**: The industry is in a situation of weak supply and demand, and prices follow the price of crude oil [50]. - **PVC**: The price may be strong in the short term due to upstream production cuts, but there is a risk of correction if the market sentiment turns bad [51]. - **Polyester Industry Chain**: It is advisable to be cautiously bullish, but beware of corrections due to the cooling of geopolitical sentiment. Pay attention to device maintenance and demand recovery [52]. - **Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG)**: Prices have risen significantly due to the Iran - US conflict, and are expected to remain high and volatile [53]. - **Paper Pulp**: The market is in a state of multi - empty game. If the market improves and inventory decreases, it is advisable to try long positions at low prices [55]. - **Logs**: The demand is gradually recovering, and prices are supported by cost. Pay attention to the impact of the Iran - US conflict and port inventory [55][56]. - **Urea**: The spot market is oversupplied, and futures prices are affected by policy and coal prices [57].

Group 1: Report Overview - The report is a weekly report on soda ash and glass futures from March 23 - 27, 2026 [1][2] Group 2: Soda Ash Futures 1. Mid - term Market Analysis - Soda ash futures are in a volatile stage. The spot market was stable but slightly weak last week, with the price center moving down slightly. Supply was generally sufficient, and downstream procurement was cautious. The market is expected to maintain a weak and volatile trend in the short term. It is recommended to wait and see [6] 2. Trading Strategies - **Last week's strategy review**: The soda ash market rose first and then stabilized last week. The increase was driven by futures sentiment, but the fundamentals of high supply and weak demand remained unchanged. Futures fluctuated sharply, dominated by the game between macro - sentiment and fundamental suppression [9] - **This week's strategy suggestion**: The soda ash market had a loose supply - demand situation last week. The spot price dropped slightly, and the futures trended down. The fundamental contradictions continued to suppress the price, and it is in a weak and volatile state [10] 3. Relevant Data - Data includes China's weekly soda ash开工率,产量,轻质库存,重质库存,基差 (daily), and ammonia - soda production cost in North China (weekly) [11][15][17] Group 3: Glass Futures 1. Mid - term Market Analysis - Glass is in a volatile trend. The float glass market had mixed price movements last week, with overall limited fluctuations. The current supply - demand situation has marginally improved but not fundamentally. High inventory and weak demand continue to suppress prices. The futures market is in a weak downward trend, and it is recommended to hold an empty position and wait and see [30] 2. Trading Strategies - **Last week's strategy review**: The float glass market was slightly stronger last week, with prices rising slightly. Supply contraction expectations and futures strength boosted the market, and inventories in various regions generally decreased. Futures had a long - short game, with high - inventory suppression and cost support coexisting, and it continued to fluctuate in the short term [33] - **This week's strategy suggestion**: The float glass spot prices had mixed movements last week, with regional differentiation. High inventory and weak demand continue to suppress the market, and it will maintain a weak consolidation in the short term. The futures market is in a weak downward trend, and the weak reality dominates the market [34] 3. Relevant Data - Data includes China's weekly float glass产量,开工率, production cost and production profit margin of the float process using natural gas as fuel,基差 (daily), and期末库存 [36][40][43] 4. Market Indicators - For glass futures, the main funds are strongly bearish, with a small inflow of main funds, and there is a relatively high risk of a market reversal [48]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core View of the Report - Industrial silicon futures are in a sideways consolidation on the weekly line, with the main contract trading between 8,000 - 9,500 yuan/ton, and it is advisable to wait and see [7][8] - Polysilicon futures are in a downward channel on the weekly line, close to the sensitive bottom position of past market conditions, and it is recommended to wait and see [26][28] - Lithium carbonate futures are in a large - amplitude volatile operation, and the main contract is oscillating. It is recommended to wait and see [44][45] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Industrial Silicon Futures - **Mid - line Trend Judgment**: The weekly line of industrial silicon futures is in a sideways consolidation. The spot price of industrial silicon was stable last week. As of March 20, the price of 421 in Xinjiang was 8,950 yuan/ton, in Yunnan 9,800 yuan/ton, and in Sichuan 9,900 yuan/ton. The AI intelligent investment consultation variety diagnosis report of Great Wall Futures shows that the daily line of industrial silicon price is in a sideways stage, and there is no obvious long - short bias among the main forces [7] - **Mid - line Strategy Suggestion**: Industrial silicon futures are oscillating, and it is advisable to wait and see with the main contract trading between 8,000 - 9,500 yuan/ton [8] - **Related Data**: As of April 19, 2024, the SHF electrolytic aluminum inventory was 228,537 tons, a decrease of 3,228 tons from the previous week, and it is at a relatively low level compared with the past five years. The LME copper inventory was 122,125 tons, and the proportion of cancelled warrants was 25.73%, also at a relatively low level compared with the past five years [11][13][16] 3.2 Polysilicon Futures - **Mid - line Trend Judgment**: The weekly line of polysilicon futures is in a downward channel. The spot price of polysilicon decreased last week. As of March 20, the price of polysilicon (compact material) was 43 yuan/kg, and that of polysilicon (re - feeding material) was 45 yuan/kg. The AI intelligent investment consultation variety diagnosis report of Great Wall Futures shows that the daily line of polysilicon futures is in a downward channel, and the short - selling camp of the main forces has a slight advantage [26][28] - **Mid - line Strategy Suggestion**: Polysilicon futures are in a downward channel and close to the sensitive bottom position of past market conditions. It is recommended to wait and see [28] - **Related Data**: As of April 19, 2024, the SHF electrolytic aluminum inventory was 228,537 tons, a decrease of 3,228 tons from the previous week, and it is at a relatively low level compared with the past five years. The LME aluminum inventory was 504,000 tons, and the proportion of cancelled warrants was 66.03%, also at a relatively low level compared with the past five years [31][36][38] 3.3 Lithium Carbonate Futures - **Mid - line Trend Judgment**: Lithium carbonate futures are in a large - amplitude volatile operation. The spot price of lithium carbonate decreased slightly last week. As of March 20, the market price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 149,250 yuan/ton, and that of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 152,150 yuan/ton. The AI intelligent investment consultation variety diagnosis report of Great Wall Futures shows that the daily line of lithium carbonate futures is in a downward channel, and the main forces show a strong short - selling sentiment [44][45] - **Mid - line Strategy Suggestion**: Lithium carbonate futures have a large fluctuation range, and the main contract is oscillating. It is recommended to wait and see [45] - **Related Data**: As of April 19, 2024, the SHF electrolytic aluminum inventory was 228,537 tons, a decrease of 3,228 tons from the previous week, and it is at a relatively low level compared with the past five years. The LME aluminum inventory was 504,000 tons, and the proportion of cancelled warrants was 66.03%, also at a relatively low level compared with the past five years [48][49][53]

Group 1: Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core View - The methanol futures are expected to maintain a strong running trend. The short - term and medium - term trends are both oscillating and on the strong side, and the intraday view is also strong [1][5] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Content Price and Trend - For methanol 2605, the short - term and medium - term trends are oscillating and on the strong side, and the intraday trend is strong, with a reference view of strong running [1] Driving Logic - The geopolitical risk has escalated. The US has increased its military efforts against Iran, and the conflict between the US and Iran has further intensified. The geopolitical risk in the Middle East remains, and the international crude oil futures prices remain in a relatively strong pattern. Recent attacks and counter - attacks in the Middle East have heated up the geopolitical sentiment, leading to the strong running of methanol futures [5]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The soybean meal market is supported by short - term spot tightness and oil mill price - holding, but is constrained by weak real - world demand and long - term supply pressure, and will maintain a weak - side shock in the short term [5][6] - The palm oil market will have a wide - range shock in the short term, with a tug - of - war between international cost support and weak domestic fundamentals [7] Group 3: Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Soybean Meal (M) - **Day - to - day view**: Weak - side shock [5] - **Medium - term view**: Shock [5] - **Reference view**: Weak - side shock [5] - **Core logic**: The core driver of soybean meal lies in the game between short - term supply tightness and long - term weak demand. Supply is limited by delayed Brazilian soybean arrivals and domestic oil mill maintenance, while demand is weak due to low pig prices and cautious purchasing by feed enterprises. Import costs and geopolitical factors add volatility, but the medium - term global soybean supply - demand pattern is loose [5] Palm Oil (P) - **Day - to - day view**: Weak - side shock [7] - **Medium - term view**: Shock [7] - **Reference view**: Weak - side shock [7] - **Core logic**: The palm oil market shows a shock pattern of a strong expectation - weak reality game. Bullish factors include high - running crude oil due to geopolitical conflicts, expected limited production increase in Malaysia in March, and potential benefits from Indonesia's biofuel policy. Bearish factors are high domestic inventory, cost pressure on related soybean oil, and weak actual demand [7]