玉米系产业日报 2025-05-06 有所下降，企业开始使用库存用以生产，收购价格震荡上涨。盘面来看，今日玉米探底回升，短线偏多参 与为主。 | 观点总结（ | 近期玉米淀粉供需表现偏弱，行业利润持续亏损，玉米淀粉企业开机率下降，供应压力有所下滑。但近期玉米淀粉下游需求不佳， | | --- | --- | | | 叠加受到木薯淀粉替代影响，下游实际消化能力有限，行业库存保持高位。截至4月30日，全国玉米淀粉企业淀粉库存总量137.6万 | | 淀粉） | | | 重点关注 | 吨，较上周下降1.10万吨，周降幅0.79%，月增幅1.76%；年同比增幅8.69%。盘面来看，近日淀粉期价随玉米震荡收涨，短线偏 周四、周五mysteel玉米周度消耗以及淀粉企业开机、库存情况，12日凌晨USDA月度供需报告 | | | 数据来源第三方，观点仅供参考。市场有风险，投资需谨慎！ | | | 多参与为主。 | 研究员: 许方莉 期货从业资格号F3073708 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0017638 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任 何保证，据此投资 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The rapeseed futures market shows a trend where near - term contracts are weakening and far - term contracts are slightly firmer. The overall market is volatile, and short - term participation is recommended for both rapeseed meal and rapeseed oil [2]. - For rapeseed meal, the import cost of Canadian rapeseed meal has increased significantly, and the supply is likely to be tight in the later period. However, the recent addition of Indian rapeseed meal imports and relatively high short - term inventory pressure are suppressing the market price. The decline in soybean meal prices also drags down rapeseed meal futures prices [2]. - For rapeseed oil, the cost increase due to the tariff hike on Canadian rapeseed oil restricts future imports, and the supply - side pressure has weakened. But high inventory continues to restrain prices. The weakening of palm oil also affects rapeseed oil, leading to a decline in its price [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - Futures closing prices: The closing price of the active rapeseed oil contract is 9216 yuan/ton, down 81 yuan; the closing price of the active rapeseed meal contract is 2548 yuan/ton, up 12 yuan; the closing price of the active ICE rapeseed contract is 701 Canadian dollars/ton, down 6.8 Canadian dollars; the closing price of the active rapeseed contract is 5454 yuan/ton, down 49 yuan [2]. - Month - to - month spreads: The 9 - 1 spread of rapeseed oil is 149 yuan/ton, up 6 yuan; the 9 - 1 spread of rapeseed meal is 217 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - Position volumes: The position volume of the rapeseed oil main contract is 280976 lots, up 4397 lots; the position volume of the rapeseed meal main contract is 565683 lots [2]. - Net long positions of the top 20 futures holders: The net long position of rapeseed oil is 18650 lots, down 3859 lots; the net long position of rapeseed meal is - 46891 lots, up 2077 lots [2]. - Warehouse receipt quantities: The rapeseed oil warehouse receipt quantity is 1357 sheets, unchanged; the rapeseed meal warehouse receipt quantity is 15700 sheets, up 1700 sheets [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - Spot prices: The spot price of rapeseed oil in Jiangsu is 9390 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan; the spot price of rapeseed meal in Nantong is 2500 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan; the spot price of rapeseed in Yancheng, Jiangsu is 6000 yuan/ton, unchanged; the spot price of fourth - grade soybean oil in Nanjing is 8210 yuan/ton, down 60 yuan; the spot price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong is 8620 yuan/ton, down 130 yuan; the spot price of soybean meal in Zhangjiagang is 3200 yuan/ton, down 200 yuan [2]. - Average prices: The average price of rapeseed oil is 9387.5 yuan/ton, down 18.75 yuan; the import cost price of imported rapeseed is 5143.56 yuan/ton, up 128.78 yuan [2]. - Price differences: The oil - meal ratio is 3.67, up 0.09; the basis of the rapeseed oil main contract is 93 yuan/ton, up 25 yuan; the basis of the rapeseed meal main contract is - 48 yuan/ton, up 8 yuan; the spot price difference between rapeseed oil and soybean oil is 1120 yuan/ton, up 90 yuan; the spot price difference between rapeseed oil and palm oil is 640 yuan/ton, up 250 yuan; the spot price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal is 700 yuan/ton, down 220 yuan [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - Production: The global rapeseed production forecast for the year is 85.17 million tons, down 1.01 million tons; the annual forecast production of rapeseed is 12378 thousand tons, unchanged [2]. - Import quantities: The total monthly import quantity of rapeseed is 24.68 million tons, down 8.63 million tons; the monthly import quantity of rapeseed oil and mustard oil is 13.5 million tons; the monthly import quantity of rapeseed meal is 1.45 million tons [2]. - Inventory and开机 rate: The total inventory of rapeseed in oil mills is 30 million tons, down 5 million tons; the weekly开机 rate of imported rapeseed is 28.52%, up 9.86 percentage points; the monthly import rapeseed crushing profit is 8 yuan/ton, down 7 yuan [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - Inventory: The coastal area rapeseed oil inventory is 34 million tons, up 10 million tons; the coastal area rapeseed meal inventory is 28.79 million tons, up 4.13 million tons; the East China rapeseed oil inventory is 64.04 million tons, down 0.06 million tons; the East China rapeseed meal inventory is 44.67 million tons, down 0.79 million tons; the Guangxi rapeseed oil inventory is 6.6 million tons, up 1 million tons; the South China rapeseed meal inventory is 23 million tons, up 7.1 million tons [2]. -提货量: The weekly提货量 of rapeseed oil is 3.83 million tons, up 0.54 million tons; the weekly提货量 of rapeseed meal is 5.35 million tons, down 0.24 million tons [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - Production: The monthly production of feed is 2777.2 million tons; the monthly production of edible vegetable oil is 440.4 million tons, down 87 million tons; the monthly value of catering revenue in social consumer goods retail is 4235 billion yuan, down 1314 billion yuan [2]. 3.6 Option Market - Implied volatility: The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for rapeseed meal is 23.08%, up 0.12 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for rapeseed meal is 23.16%, up 0.12 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money call options for rapeseed oil is 16.12%, down 0.42 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for rapeseed oil is 16.13%, down 0.41 percentage points [2]. - Historical volatility: The 20 - day historical volatility of rapeseed meal is 27.19%, down 0.31 percentage points; the 60 - day historical volatility of rapeseed meal is 27.63%, down 0.99 percentage points; the 20 - day historical volatility of rapeseed oil is 17.98%, down 0.56 percentage points; the 60 - day historical volatility of rapeseed oil is 17.02%, up 0.03 percentage points [2]. 3.7 Industry News - In the Canadian rapeseed futures market on Monday, most contracts declined, with the benchmark contract down 0.9%. The near - term contracts weakened, and the far - term contracts were slightly firmer. The prices of rapeseed futures ranged from a decline of 6.3 Canadian dollars to an increase of 3.6 Canadian dollars [2]. - South American rapeseed has a bumper harvest, which pressures international soybean prices. The expected reduction in the planting area of new - season US soybeans may increase the expectation of weather premiums. In the domestic market, before the festival, the soybean clearance time affected the operation of some oil mills, leading to a shortage of soybean meal supply. However, high prices have led to downstream resistance, and the spot price of soybean meal has dropped significantly. After the festival, the supply of soybean meal will shift from tight to loose [2].

| | | | | 2025年5月6日多晶硅全合约持仓数据一览 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 名次 会员名称 成交量(双边) | | 增减 | 会员 | 持买单 | 增减 | 会员 | 持卖里 | 壇減 | | J | 中信期货 | 29,540 | -10,266 | 永安期货 | 7,984 | 188 | 中信期货 | 7,494 | ਰੇਰੇ | | 2 | 国泰君安期货 | 15,833 | -76 | 中信建投 | 7,546 | -2,458 | 国泰君安期货 | 7.484 | 865 | | 3 | 中信建投 | 13,809 | 5,399 | 中信期货 | 6,194 | 204 | 中信建投 | 7,387 | -2,351 | | ব | 东证期货 | 11,346 | -3,833 | 国投期货 | 5,425 | 268 | 永安期货 | 3,981 | 667 | | 5 | 广发期货 | 9,938 | -4,915 | 银河期货 | 5,420 | ...

文章来源:新浪期货 2025年5月6日工业硅主力合约2506持仓数据一览 | | 名次 会员名称 成交量(双边) | | 増減 | 会员 | 持买单 | 增减 | 会员 | 持卖单 | 增减 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | ਹ | 中信建投 | 118,435 | 104.451 | 国泰君安期货 | 27,802 | 2,277 | 国泰君安期货 17,655 | | -272 | | 2 | 永安期货 | 63,350 | 28,558 | 物产中大期货 | 10,579 | 210 | 永安期货 | 14,908 | 4,201 | | 3 | 中信期货 | 54,044 | -9,208 | 浙商期货 | 8,888 | -J78 | 中信期货 | 12,998 | 823 | | ব | 广发期货 | 53,775 | 17,863 | 中信期货 | 8,007 | 831 | 花素期货 | 8,735 | 4 | | 5 | 国泰君安期货 | 37,869 | 2,966 | 广发期货 | 7,89 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The report suggests short - term wait - and - see due to the weakening of the futures market following the decline in spot prices [2] Group 2: Core Viewpoints - Corn price increases support egg costs, but the high layer hen inventory and new production from previously replenished hens lead to sufficient egg supply [2] - After the festival atmosphere fades, downstream terminal purchasing power weakens, causing egg prices to decline [2] - Weak spot prices drag down the futures market. If spot prices remain low, it may boost old - hen culling and reduce replenishment, which is beneficial for long - term prices [2] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the active egg futures contract is 2884 yuan/500 kilograms, down 58 yuan; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 3925 lots, down 1023 lots [2] - The egg futures monthly spread (9 - 1) is 112 yuan/500 kilograms, up 2 yuan; the futures open interest of the active contract is 119831 lots, up 1153 lots; the registered warehouse receipts are 0 lots [2] Spot Market - The spot price of eggs is 3.17 yuan/jin, down 0.04 yuan; the basis (spot - futures) is 289 yuan/500 kilograms, up 23 yuan [2] Upstream Situation - The national layer hen inventory index is 112.35 (2015 = 100), down 4.09; the national culled layer hen index is 96.76 (2015 = 100), down 21.67 [2] - The average price of layer chicks in the main production areas is 4.2 yuan/feather, down 0.05 yuan; the national new - chick index is 138.68 (2015 = 100), up 23.55 [2] - The average price of layer compound feed is 2.76 yuan/kg, up 0.02 yuan; the layer farming profit is - 0.15 yuan/hen, down 0.2 yuan [2] - The average price of culled hens in the main production areas is 10.48 yuan/kg, up 0.1 yuan; the national culling age of hens is 510 days, down 6 days [2] Industry Situation - The average wholesale price of pork is 20.96 yuan/kg, up 0.37 yuan; the average wholesale price of 28 key - monitored vegetables is 4.35 yuan/kg, down 0.04 yuan [2] - The average wholesale price of dressed chickens is 17.09 yuan/kg, down 0.02 yuan; the weekly inventory in the circulation link is 1.28 days, up 0.29 days [2] - The weekly inventory in the production link is 1.16 days, up 0.27 days; the monthly export volume of fresh eggs is 10714.73 tons, down 506.3 tons [2] Downstream Situation - The weekly egg consumption in the sales areas is 8996 tons, up 4 tons [2] Industry News - The average egg price in Shandong is 6.32 yuan/kg, up 0.02 yuan; in Hebei, it is 6.15 yuan/kg, down 0.06 yuan; in Guangdong, it is 6.63 yuan/kg, down 0.20 yuan; in Beijing, it is 6.88 yuan/kg, unchanged [2] - Corn price increases support egg costs, but the high layer hen inventory and new production lead to sufficient egg supply; post - festival, downstream demand weakens, causing egg prices to decline [2]

新浪期货 根据交易所数据，截至4月30日收盘主力合约低硫燃料油2507,涨跌-2.79%,成交量7.71万手，持仓数据显示前20席位呈现 净空，差额头寸为3523手。 文章来源:新浪期货 | | | | | 2025年4月30日低硫燃料油主力合约2507持仓数据一览 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 名次 会员名称 成交量(双边) | | 増減 | 会员 | 持买单 | 增减 | 会员 | 持卖单 | 增减 | | ਹ | 中泰期货 | 24.255 | 6,307 | 国泰君安 | 5,788 | 330 | 中银期货 | 4.939 | 416 | | 2 | 东证期货 | 22.279 | -6.140 | 东证期货 | 4,960 | 238 | 永安期货 | 3,919 | 714 | | 3 | 花素期货 | 21,179 | 3,205 | 银河期货 | 3,222 | -854 | 东证期货 | 3,648 | -1,281 | | 4 | 国泰君安 | 9,049 | - ...

Report Information - Report Title: Oilseed Industry Risk Management Daily Report - Date: April 30, 2025 - Analysts: Zhou Yuyu (Investment Consulting License No.: Z0019884), Jin Wandong (Futures Practitioner License No.: F03118199) - Investment Consulting Business Qualification: CSRC License [2011] No. 1290 [1][2] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - In the second quarter, the soybean supply pressure is being traded based on the expectation of higher supply compared to previous years and the acceleration of oil mill operations. Oil mills will focus on quickly realizing profits. In the long - term, after trading the reality of loose soybean meal supply, the fundamental logic will return to the new US soybean planting and trade war negotiations [4]. Summary by Directory Price Range Forecast - Monthly price range forecast: The price of soybean meal is expected to be between 2,800 and 3,300, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 20.7% and a historical percentile of 68.5% over 3 years. The price of rapeseed meal is expected to be between 2,450 and 2,750, with a current volatility of 0.3107 and a historical percentile of 0.819 over 3 years [3]. Hedging Strategies - **Trader Inventory Management**: For traders with high protein inventory worried about falling meal prices, they can short soybean meal futures (M2509) to lock in profits and cover production costs, with a hedging ratio of 25% and an entry range of 3,300 - 3,400 [3]. - **Feed Mill Procurement Management**: Feed mills with low regular inventory can buy soybean meal futures (M2509) at present to lock in procurement costs in advance, with a hedging ratio of 50% and an entry range of 2,850 - 3,000 [3]. - **Oil Mill Inventory Management**: Oil mills worried about excessive imported soybeans and low soybean meal sales prices can short soybean meal futures (M2509) to lock in profits and cover production costs, with a hedging ratio of 50% and an entry range of 3,100 - 3,200 [3]. Core Contradictions - In the second quarter, the soybean supply pressure is being traded based on the expectation of higher supply compared to previous years and the acceleration of oil mill operations. In the long - term, after trading the reality of loose soybean meal supply, the fundamental logic will return to the new US soybean planting and trade war negotiations [4]. Bullish Factors - Port and oil mill soybean inventories continue to rise. With the increase in the operating rate and state reserve auctions, supply in some areas has gradually recovered. There is a strong bullish sentiment in the far - month contracts due to tariff disturbances. The Brazilian export premium supports the far - month contract prices from the cost side [11]. Bearish Factors - After the subsequent arrival of soybeans, the supply will be smoothly connected. The demand side is cautious about long - term stocking, and the near - term demand is mainly based on previous contracts and spot purchases. In April, about 850,000 tons of soybeans arrived at ports, but port clearance delays may affect the final oil mill crushing volume. In May, 1.15 million tons are expected, and in June, 1.05 million tons are expected. Feed mill physical inventories have reached an annual low [6][7][8]. Futures Prices | Futures Contract | Closing Price | Daily Change | Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Soybean Meal 01 | 3,008 | 0 | 0% | | Soybean Meal 05 | 2,833 | 0 | 0% | | Soybean Meal 09 | 2,964 | - 21 | - 0.7% | | Rapeseed Meal 01 | 2,370 | - 29 | - 1.21% | | Rapeseed Meal 05 | 2,472 | 0 | 0% | | Rapeseed Meal 09 | 2,588 | - 53 | - 2.01% | | CBOT Yellow Soybeans | 1,052.5 | 0 | 0% | | Off - shore RMB | 7.286 | - 0.0022 | - 0.03% | [9][13] Spreads - **Soybean Meal Spreads**: M01 - 05 is 175 (up 26), M05 - 09 is - 131 (down 16), M09 - 01 is - 44 (down 10). The soybean meal spot price in Rizhao is 3,450 (down 50), and the basis is 486 (down 29). - **Rapeseed Meal Spreads**: RM01 - 05 is - 102 (up 23), RM05 - 09 is - 116 (up 1), RM09 - 01 is 218 (down 24). The rapeseed meal spot price in Fujian is 2,588 (down 10), and the basis is 0 (up 43). - **Soybean - Rapeseed Meal Spread**: The spot spread is 852 (down 50), and the futures spread is 376 (up 32) [14]. Import Costs and Profits | Import Item | Price (Yuan/ton) | Daily Change | Weekly Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | US Gulf Soybean Import Cost (47%) | 5,443.5196 | - 33.5155 | 0.1024 | | Brazilian Soybean Import Cost | 3,742.75 | 9.06 | 74.44 | | US Gulf (3%) - US Gulf (47%) Cost Difference | - 1,629.3528 | - 3.2149 | - 21.5309 | | US Gulf Soybean Import Profit (47%) | - 1,677.4796 | - 33.5155 | - 155.7915 | | Brazilian Soybean Import Profit | 236.9058 | - 57.233 | - 0.2086 | | Canadian Rapeseed Import Futures Profit | 15 | - 125 | - 83 | | Canadian Rapeseed Import Spot Profit | 9 | - 121 | - 52 | [15]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - The trading volume of the two markets has been continuously declining, with frequent sector rotations and a strong wait - and - see sentiment in the market. The core of domestic market trading is policy expectations and external tariff disturbances. The A - share market's sensitivity to tariff policies has weakened, and without an obvious and clear policy shift, it is difficult to have a significant impact on domestic stock indices. Domestic policies are expected to act according to the progress of tariff games and economic data. Before a change occurs, the volatile market is likely to continue. As tomorrow is the last trading day before the holiday, the market is expected to maintain a cautious attitude for pre - holiday risk avoidance. Important US economic data will be released during the May Day holiday, which may affect the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations and thus disrupt the A - share market. Therefore, it is necessary to be vigilant about the increased volatility of stock indices after the holiday [6] Market Review - Today, stock indices showed mixed performance, with large - cap indices closing down and small - and medium - cap indices closing up. In terms of capital, the trading volume of the two markets decreased by 34.226 billion yuan. In the futures index market, IF and IH declined with shrinking volume, while IC and IM rose with shrinking volume [4] Important Information - The US Treasury Secretary claimed that China is responsible for the escalation of the tariff war. The Chinese Foreign Ministry stated that China has repeatedly made it clear that there are no winners in tariff and trade wars. The tariff war was initiated by the US. If the US wants to resolve the issue through dialogue and negotiation, it should stop threatening and pressuring and conduct dialogue with China on the basis of equality, respect, and reciprocity. - The Ministry of Finance plans to re - issue 71 billion yuan of ultra - long - term special treasury bonds on May 9. The re - issued treasury bonds are 30 - year fixed - rate coupon - bearing bonds, with the same coupon rate as the previously issued bonds of the same period, which is 1.88% [5] Strategy Recommendation - Futures Index Market Observation | | IF | IH | IC | IM | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Main contract intraday change | -0.21% | -0.35% | 0.23% | 0.7% | | Trading volume (10,000 lots) | 6.3647 | 3.3464 | 6.492 | 17.8842 | | Trading volume MoM | -0.5073 | -0.3138 | -0.3088 | -0.9018 | | Open interest | 241,073 | 78,771 | 198,932 | 310,352 | | Open interest MoM | -2,958 | -195 | -832 | -5,159 | [6] Strategy Recommendation - Spot Market Observation | | Name | Value | | --- | --- | --- | | | Shanghai Composite Index change (%) | -0.05 | | | Shenzhen Component Index change (%) | -0.05 | | | Ratio of rising stocks to falling stocks | 2.13 | | | Trading volume of the two markets (billion yuan) | 102.2083 | | | Trading volume MoM (billion yuan) | -34.226 | [7]

投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】31号 1.1 J 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.6 05 0.4 03 02 行仓PCR ITG国贸期 steels HCI生命中 =: F0251925 2025/4/29 数据来源: Wind,国贸期货研究院 | | | | | 行情回顾 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 指数 | 收盘价 | | 张肤帽(%) | | 成交额(亿元) | | 成交里(亿) | | | 上证50 | 2651. 2252 | | 0. 09 | | 576. 71 | | 32. 91 | | | 沪深300 | 3781. 6188 | | -0.14 | | 2106. 35 | | 125.15 | | | 中证1000 | 5877. 0566 | | -1. 05 | | 2219. 38 | | 194. 95 | | | | | | | 中金所股指期权成交情况 | | | | | | 指数 | 期权成交望 | 认购期权 | 认沽期权 | 日成交里 | 期权持仓里 | 认购 ...