国债期货日报 2025年6月26日 行情企稳，继续观望 盘面点评： 国债期货早盘小幅高开后震荡下行，盘中翻绿，午后低位窄幅震荡，尾盘回升跌幅有所收窄。公开市场方 面，到期逆回购2035亿，央行新做5093亿，当日净投放3058亿，市场情绪得到明显呵护。 日内消息： 1.商务部：中国一贯高度重视维护全球产供链的稳定与安全，依法依规不断加快对稀土相关出口许可申请的 审查，已经依法批准一定数量的合规申请，并将持续加强合规申请的审批工作。中方愿就此进一步加强与相 关国家的出口管制沟通对话，积极促进便利合规贸易 。 行情研判： 当前债市（特别是长端）跟A股跷跷板效应依旧明显，早盘A股震荡上行期间T从日内高点回落。但总体来看A 股表现较昨日明显降温，在没有基本面利好驱动，单纯靠地缘缓和以及稳定币概念支撑的行情，其持续性也 有待观望。而债市在本轮A股大涨中其实本来表现得就比较有韧性，跌幅并不算大，A股情绪降温的同时，长 端合约价格也有企稳迹象。 | 数据一览 | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | ...

智通财经6月26日电，南华期货(603093.SH)公告称，公司股票连续三个交易日内收盘价格涨幅偏离值累 计达到20%，属于股票交易异常波动情形。经自查，公司目前日常经营活动正常，主营业务未发生变 化，无影响股价的重大经营事项。此外，公司不存在应披露而未披露的重大信息，包括重大资产重组、 发行股份、上市公司收购等事项。公司提醒投资者注意二级市场交易风险，理性决策，审慎投资。 南华期货：生产经营正常 无重大未披露事项 ...

沪银期货主力涨近2%，对于后市行情如何，相关机构该如何评价？ 机构 核心观点 铜冠金源期货 金银价格大概率还会继续调整 宁证期货 白银震荡偏多 瑞达期货（002961） 贵金属市场短期或维持震荡格局 6月26日盘中，沪银期货主力合约遭遇一波急速上涨，最高上探至8805.00元。截止发稿，沪银主力合约 报8796.00元，涨幅1.70%。 宁证期货：白银震荡偏多 虽然目前市场预期7月降息的概率依然不高，但是鲍威尔讲话已经有所松动，表明如果通胀可控，不排 除提前降息，美联储降息预期增加，中东战争结束，白银上涨动能将增加。白银震荡偏多，关注降息预 期是否进一步强化。 瑞达期货：贵金属市场短期或维持震荡格局 受避险需求降温与鲍威尔偏鹰立场影响，贵金属市场短期或维持震荡格局，后续走势仍取决于美联储的 政策立场表态以及通胀就业数据的实际表现，近期投资者对于黄金作为避险对冲工具的吸引力边际走 弱，金价上行或仍受到阻力，但中长期来看，美国大型减税法案导致的财政赤字抬高以及美元信用边际 受损仍利多金价。沪金2508合约关注区间：750-780元/克；沪银2508合约关注区间：8600-8900元/千 克。 铜冠金源期货：金银价 ...

Report Overview - Report Title: Nanhua Futures Tin Risk Management Daily Report - Date: June 26, 2025 - Research Team: Nanhua Non - ferrous Metals Research Team [1] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core View - The fundamentals of tin remain stable. There are both利多 factors such as the easing of Sino - US tariff policies, the semiconductor sector being in an expansion cycle, and Myanmar's production resumption falling short of expectations, and利空 factors including the recurrence of tariff policies, Myanmar's production resumption, and the semiconductor sector's slowdown in expansion and transition to a contraction cycle [3][4][5][6] Key Points by Category 1. Tin Price Volatility and Risk Management - The latest closing price of tin is 263,000 yuan/ton, with a monthly price range forecast of 245,000 - 263,000 yuan/ton. The current volatility is 21.40%, and the historical percentile of the current volatility is 56.9% [2] - For inventory management with high finished - product inventory and concerns about price drops, it is recommended to sell short the main Shanghai tin futures contract at around 290,000 yuan/ton with a 100% hedging ratio and sell the call option SN2508C275000 with a 25% hedging ratio when the volatility is appropriate [2] - For raw material management with low raw - material inventory and concerns about price increases, it is recommended to buy long the main Shanghai tin futures contract at around 230,000 yuan/ton with a 50% hedging ratio and sell the put option SN2508P245000 with a 25% hedging ratio when the volatility is appropriate [2] 2. News and Factors - The fundamentals of tin remain stable [3] -利多 factors: easing of Sino - US tariff policies, the semiconductor sector in an expansion cycle, and Myanmar's production resumption falling short of expectations [4] -利空 factors: recurrence of tariff policies, Myanmar's production resumption, and the semiconductor sector's slowdown in expansion and transition to a contraction cycle [5][6] 3. Tin Futures and Spot Data Futures Data (Daily) - The latest price of the main Shanghai tin futures contract is 263,000 yuan/ton, with no daily change. The price of Shanghai tin continuous - one is 263,140 yuan/ton, and Shanghai tin continuous - three is 262,950 yuan/ton, both with no daily change. The price of LME tin 3M is 32,460 US dollars/ton, down 110 US dollars (- 0.34%). The Shanghai - London ratio is 8.04, down 0.01 (- 0.12%) [6] Spot Data (Weekly) - The price of Shanghai Non - ferrous tin ingots is 262,100 yuan/ton, down 2,200 yuan (- 0.83%). The 1 tin premium is 700 yuan/ton with no change. The price of 40% tin concentrate is 250,100 yuan/ton, down 2,200 yuan (- 0.87%), and the price of 60% tin concentrate is 254,100 yuan/ton, down 2,200 yuan (- 0.86%). The price of solder bar (60A) is 170,750 yuan/ton, down 1,000 yuan (- 0.58%), the price of solder bar (63A) is 177,750 yuan/ton, down 1,500 yuan (- 0.84%), and the price of lead - free solder is 268,250 yuan/ton, down 2,000 yuan (- 0.74%) [10][13] 4. Tin Import and Processing - The tin import profit and loss is - 12,717.24 yuan/ton, up 25.63% compared to the previous day. The 40% tin ore processing fee is 12,200 yuan/ton with no change, and the 60% tin ore processing fee is 10,550 yuan/ton with no change [15] 5. Tin Inventory - The total warehouse receipt quantity of tin in the Shanghai Futures Exchange is 6,472 tons, up 10 tons (0.15%). The warehouse receipt quantity in Guangdong is 4,117 tons, up 8 tons (0.19%), and in Shanghai is 1,430 tons, up 2 tons (0.14%). The total LME tin inventory is 2,155 tons, down 25 tons (- 1.15%) [20]

Report Overview - Report Name: Nanhua Futures Copper Risk Management Daily Report - Date: June 26, 2025 - Research Team: Nanhua Non - ferrous Metals Research Team [1] 1. Copper Price and Volatility - Latest copper price: 78,810 yuan/ton, with a monthly price range forecast of 73,000 - 80,000 yuan/ton. The current volatility is 8.58%, and the current volatility historical percentile is 6.7% [2] 2. Copper Risk Management Suggestions Inventory Management - For high finished - product inventory and fear of price decline: - Strategy: Short 75% of the Shanghai Copper main futures contract at around 82,000 yuan/ton, and sell 25% of call options (CU2508C80000) when volatility is relatively stable [2] Raw Material Management - For low raw - material inventory and fear of price increase: - Strategy: Long 75% of the Shanghai Copper main futures contract at around 75,000 yuan/ton [2] 3. Important News and Factors - Fundamental situation: Stable [3] 利多因素 - Sino - US tariff policy easing, lower inventory levels, and the US dollar index hovering at a low level [4] 利空因素 - Tariff policy reversals, reduced global demand due to tariff policies, and the Fed maintaining high interest rates [5][6] 4. Copper Futures and Spot Data Futures Data (Daily) | Variety | Unit | Latest Price | Daily Change | Daily Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Shanghai Copper Main | yuan/ton | 78,810 | 0 | 0% | | Shanghai Copper Continuous 1 | yuan/ton | 78,680 | 200 | 0.25% | | Shanghai Copper Continuous 3 | yuan/ton | 78,270 | 0 | 0% | | LME Copper 3M | US dollars/ton | 9,664 | - 30.5 | - 0.31% | | Shanghai - London Ratio | Ratio | 7.9 | - 0.06 | - 0.75% | [6] Spot Data (Daily) | Variety | Unit | Latest Price | Daily Change | Daily Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Shanghai Non - ferrous 1 Copper | yuan/ton | 78,580 | 165 | 0.21% | | Shanghai Wumaotrade | yuan/ton | 78,560 | 140 | 0.18% | | Guangdong Nanchu | yuan/ton | 78,590 | 160 | 0.2% | | Yangtze Non - ferrous | yuan/ton | 78,740 | 160 | 0.2% | | Shanghai Non - ferrous Premium/Discount | yuan/ton | 30 | - 10 | - 25% | | Shanghai Wumaotrade Premium/Discount | yuan/ton | - 20 | - 40 | - 200% | | Guangdong Nanchu Premium/Discount | yuan/ton | 25 | - 5 | - 16.67% | | Yangtze Non - ferrous Premium/Discount | yuan/ton | 70 | - 15 | - 17.65% | [7] 5. Copper Scrap - Refined Spread Tax - included - Current scrap - refined spread: 1,099.57 yuan/ton, daily change 80 yuan, daily change rate 7.85% - Reasonable scrap - refined spread: 1,484.4 yuan/ton, daily change 0.8 yuan, daily change rate 0.05% - Price advantage: - 384.83 yuan/ton, daily change 79.2 yuan, daily change rate - 17.07% Tax - excluded - Current scrap - refined spread: 5,740 yuan/ton, daily change 80 yuan, daily change rate 1.41% - Reasonable scrap - refined spread: 6,143.74 yuan/ton, daily change 5.56 yuan, daily change rate 0.09% - Price advantage: - 403.74 yuan/ton, daily change 74.44 yuan, daily change rate - 15.57% [9] 6. Copper Warehouse Receipts and Inventory SHFE Copper Warehouse Receipts (Daily) | Variety | Unit | Latest Price | Daily Change | Daily Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Total SHFE Copper Warehouse Receipts | tons | 21,470 | - 955 | - 4.26% | | Total International Copper Warehouse Receipts | tons | 1,903 | 0 | 0% | | Shanghai SHFE Copper Warehouse Receipts | tons | 14,033 | - 904 | - 6.05% | | Total Bonded SHFE Copper Warehouse Receipts | tons | 0 | 0 | - 100% | | Total Tax - paid SHFE Copper Warehouse Receipts | tons | 21,470 | - 955 | - 4.26% | [12] LME Copper Inventory (Daily) | Variety | Unit | Latest Price | Change | Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Total LME Copper Inventory | tons | 93,475 | - 1,200 | - 1.27% | | European LME Copper Inventory | tons | 36,525 | - 825 | - 2.21% | | Asian LME Copper Inventory | tons | 58,150 | - 375 | - 0.64% | | North American LME Copper Inventory | tons | 0 | 0 | - 100% | | Total LME Copper Registered Warehouse Receipts | tons | 56,250 | 1,725 | 3.16% | | Total LME Copper Cancelled Warehouse Receipts | tons | 37,225 | - 2,925 | - 7.29% | [14] COMEX Copper Inventory (Weekly) | Variety | Unit | Latest Price | Weekly Change | Weekly Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Total COMEX Copper Inventory | tons | 204,316 | 6,955 | 3.52% | | Total COMEX Copper Registered Warehouse Receipts | tons | 98,357 | - 11,008 | - 0.89% | | Total COMEX Copper Cancelled Warehouse Receipts | tons | 105,959 | 1,865 | 1.79% | [16] 7. Copper Import Profit and Processing | Variety | Unit | Latest Price | Daily Change | Daily Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Copper Import Profit/Loss | yuan/ton | - 2,522.29 | - 1,315.91 | 109.08% | | Copper Concentrate TC | US dollars/ton | - 43.8 | 0 | 0% | [17]

Group 1: Report Information - Report Name: Iron Alloy Industry Risk Management Daily Report [1] - Date: June 25, 2025 [1] - Analysts: Zhou Fuhan (Z0020173), Chen Mintao (F03118345) [1] - Investment Consulting Business Qualification: China Securities Regulatory Commission License [2011] No. 1290 [1] Group 2: Price Forecast and Hedging Price Forecast - Silicon Ferrosilicon Price Range (Monthly): 5,300 - 6,000 yuan/ton; Current Volatility (20-day Rolling): 16.28%; Current Volatility Historical Percentile (3 years): 38.0% [2] - Silicon Manganese Price Range (Monthly): 5,300 - 6,000 yuan/ton; Current Volatility (20-day Rolling): 14.87%; Current Volatility Historical Percentile (3 years): 25.0% [2] Hedging - Inventory Management: For high finished product inventory, short iron alloy futures (SF2509, SM2509) with a 15% hedging ratio at SF: 6,200 - 6,250, SM: 6,400 - 6,500 to lock in profits and cover production costs [2] - Procurement Management: For low procurement inventory, buy iron alloy futures (SF2509, SM2509) with a 25% hedging ratio at SF: 5,100 - 5,200, SM: 5,300 - 5,400 to lock in procurement costs [2] Group 3: Core Contradiction - Iron alloys have a certain rebound sentiment due to technical buying, but the spot market is dragged down by steel mill price pressure and weakening costs. In the context of the terminal steel demand entering the off-season, the long-term trend of iron alloys remains relatively weak. The previous high inventory and high supply of iron alloys are gradually weakening, and the supply side maintains low supply pressure. Iron alloys will continue the de-stocking trend, but the de-stocking speed has slowed down. There is an expectation of lower electricity prices for iron alloys and the arrival of the wet season in the south, so the cost side still has a downward expectation. The July quotation of manganese ore has been lowered, and the black market is facing the expectation of negative feedback in the off-season demand trading. It is expected that iron alloys will still operate weakly. However, the trading volume of iron alloys has decreased, and some funds have left the market. When the valuation is too low, it is vulnerable to news disturbances. In the short term, there is a rebound, but the rebound space is limited. Wait for the rebound to short [3] Group 4: Bullish Factors Silicon Ferrosilicon - High steel mill profitability will maintain high hot metal production, which supports the demand for silicon ferrosilicon [4] - Silicon ferrosilicon has been falling continuously, and the low valuation has the possibility of a rebound [4] - Silicon ferrosilicon profits are at the bottom of the profit range, with production cut drivers, and the futures market may rebound due to production cut disturbances [4] - This week, the silicon ferrosilicon enterprise inventory was 68,100 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 2.71% [4] Silicon Manganese - The government's control policies for high-energy-consuming industries remain strict, and the silicon manganese industry may undergo industrial structure adjustment and upgrading under policy regulations [5] - The total silicon manganese inventory shows a de-stocking trend [5] - Silicon manganese has been falling continuously, and the low valuation has the possibility of a rebound [5] - Silicon manganese warehouse receipts were 474,800 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 3.06%; the total silicon manganese inventory was 680,700 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 0.73% [5] Group 5: Bearish Factors Silicon Ferrosilicon - The weekly operating rate of silicon ferrosilicon production enterprises was 32.69%, a week-on-week increase of 1.34%. The weekly output of silicon ferrosilicon was 97,900 tons, a week-on-week increase of 2.93% [6] - The coal sector continues to be weak, and there is an expectation of further decline in the electricity cost of iron alloys [6] Silicon Manganese - In the long term, the real estate market is sluggish, the black overall sector is declining, and the market has doubts about the growth of steel terminal demand. The demand for silicon manganese is relatively weak [7] - The weekly operating rate of silicon manganese production enterprises was 36.39%, a week-on-week increase of 1.09%. The weekly output of silicon manganese was 176,600 tons, a week-on-week increase of 1.85%. The silicon manganese enterprise inventory was 205,900 tons, a week-on-week increase of 5.1% [7] - The July quotation of Comilog Gabon lump ore is 4.25 US dollars/ton degree, a month-on-month decrease of 0.15 US dollars/ton degree [7] Group 6: Daily Data Silicon Ferrosilicon - On June 25, 2025, the silicon ferrosilicon basis in Ningxia was 76 yuan/ton, a day-on-day decrease of 86 yuan/ton and a week-on-week decrease of 34 yuan/ton [8] - The silicon ferrosilicon 01 - 05 spread was -22 yuan/ton, a day-on-day increase of 18 yuan/ton and a week-on-week increase of 24 yuan/ton [8] - The silicon ferrosilicon 05 - 09 spread was -22 yuan/ton, a day-on-day decrease of 26 yuan/ton and a week-on-week decrease of 34 yuan/ton [8] - The silicon ferrosilicon 09 - 01 spread was 44 yuan/ton, a day-on-day increase of 8 yuan/ton and a week-on-week increase of 10 yuan/ton [8] - The silicon ferrosilicon spot price in Ningxia was 5,200 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day and a week-on-week increase of 50 yuan/ton [8] - The silicon ferrosilicon warehouse receipts were 6,415 tons, an increase of 6,415 tons from the previous day and a week-on-week decrease of 8,686 tons [8] Silicon Manganese - On June 25, 2025, the silicon manganese basis in Inner Mongolia was 196 yuan/ton, a day-on-day decrease of 98 yuan/ton and a week-on-week decrease of 78 yuan/ton [9] - The silicon manganese 01 - 05 spread was -16 yuan/ton, a day-on-day increase of 2 yuan/ton and a week-on-week increase of 10 yuan/ton [9] - The silicon manganese 05 - 09 spread was 46 yuan/ton, a day-on-day decrease of 24 yuan/ton and a week-on-week decrease of 12 yuan/ton [9] - The silicon manganese 09 - 01 spread was -30 yuan/ton, a day-on-day increase of 22 yuan/ton and a week-on-week increase of 2 yuan/ton [9] - The double-silicon spread was -280 yuan/ton, a day-on-day decrease of 12 yuan/ton and a week-on-week decrease of 14 yuan/ton [9] - The silicon manganese spot price in Ningxia was 5,400 yuan/ton, a day-on-day decrease of 30 yuan/ton and a week-on-week decrease of 30 yuan/ton [9] - The silicon manganese warehouse receipts were 93,468 tons, a day-on-day decrease of 301 tons and a week-on-week decrease of 1,427 tons [10]

·西南期货：中长期上涨逻辑仍强考虑做多黄金期货 ·银河期货：短期内预计贵金属将延续高位震荡走势 ·广州期货：避险情绪降温美联储降息没有紧迫性贵金属价格或小幅承压 ·Zaner Metals：对停火能否持续的不确定性限制金价跌幅 ·FXStreet：美元走软金价整体仍保持积极偏向 ·银河期货表示，由于伊以双方在美国的介入下暂时实现停火，避险情绪回落。美国货币政策路径方 面，尽管昨日鲍威尔等人的发言稍显鹰派、总体维持观望态度，但市场对于下半年的降息预期有所提 升、并小幅抢跑，美元和美债收益率连续走低。往后看，尽管地缘因素的缓和为黄金带来溢价出清的压 力，但市场后续的焦点可能重新回美国宏观基本面和美联储的货币政策上来，当前关税冲击引起的风险 并未消除，美联储也仍处于降息通道之中，这些因素为贵金属下方提供了良好的支撑。因此短期内预计 贵金属将延续在高位震荡的走势。 ·广州期货表示，以色列和伊朗同意全面停火，地缘风险缓和。美联储主席鲍威尔在国会证词中表示， 美联储目前处于有利位置，能够耐心等待，待对经济走向有更清晰的判断后再考虑调整货币政策立场； 但他不排除关税对通胀的影响可能没有预期大，不排除提前降息的可能。世界大型 ...

Report Overview - Report Title: Nanhua Futures Copper Risk Management Daily Report - Date: June 25, 2025 - Research Team: Nanhua Non - ferrous Metals Research Team [1] Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report Core Viewpoints - The copper market has both positive and negative factors. Positive factors include the easing of Sino - US tariff policies, lower inventory levels, and the weakening of the US dollar index. Negative factors are the uncertainty of tariff policies, reduced global demand due to tariffs, and the Fed maintaining high - interest rates [4][5][6] Detailed Summaries by Category Copper Price and Volatility - The latest copper price is 78,640 yuan/ton, with a monthly price range forecast of 73,000 - 80,000 yuan/ton. The current volatility is 8.56%, and the historical percentile is 6.6% [2] Copper Risk Management Suggestions Inventory Management - For high finished - product inventory and fear of price decline, the strategy is to short 75% of the Shanghai Copper main futures contract at around 82,000 yuan/ton and sell 25% of the CU2508C80000 call options when volatility is relatively stable [2] Raw Material Management - For low raw - material inventory and fear of price increase, the strategy is to long 75% of the Shanghai Copper main futures contract at around 75,000 yuan/ton [2] Copper Market Data Futures Data - The latest price of the Shanghai Copper main contract is 78,640 yuan/ton, with no daily change. The Shanghai Copper continuous - one contract rose 400 yuan/ton (0.51%), and the Shanghai Copper continuous - three contract had no change. The LME copper 3M contract was at 9,664 US dollars/ton, down 30.5 US dollars (-0.31%), and the Shanghai - London ratio was 7.96, down 0.1 (-1.24%) [6] Spot Data - Shanghai Non - ferrous 1 copper was at 78,415 yuan/ton, up 90 yuan (0.11%); Shanghai Wumaotong was at 78,420 yuan/ton, up 80 yuan (0.1%); Guangdong Nanchu was at 78,430 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan (0.13%); Yangtze Non - ferrous was at 78,580 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan (0.13%). The spot premiums of major markets all declined [7] Refined - Scrap Copper Spread - The current refined - scrap copper spread (tax - included) was 1,019.57 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan (10.87%); the reasonable spread was 1,483.6 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan (0.07%). The price advantage was - 464.03 yuan/ton, down 99 yuan (-17.58%) [9] Warehouse Receipts and Inventory - Shanghai Copper warehouse receipts totaled 22,425 tons, down 3,103 tons (-12.16%); LME copper inventory totaled 94,675 tons, down 1,200 tons (-1.25%); COMEX copper inventory totaled 203,335 tons, up 7,289 tons (3.72%) [12][14][16] Import Profit and Processing Fees - The copper import profit was - 2,522.29 yuan/ton, down 1,315.91 yuan (109.08%); the copper concentrate TC was - 43.8 US dollars/ton, with no change [17]

Core Viewpoint - The domestic fuel oil futures market is experiencing a downward trend, with significant price fluctuations and a notable decline in demand and supply dynamics [1][2]. Group 1: Market Performance - On June 25, the fuel oil futures main contract opened at 3062.00 CNY/ton, with a maximum of 3071.00 CNY and a minimum of 2996.00 CNY, reflecting a decline of approximately 6.11% [1]. - Domestic fuel oil sales reached 44,600 tons, a decrease of 2,800 tons or 5.91% from the previous month [1]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The supply side is affected by reduced exports from Russia and Iran, while Singapore's imports remain high, leading to an overall surplus in the market [2]. - The domestic fuel oil inventory rate increased to 9.0%, up from 7.1%, indicating a rise of 1.9 percentage points [1]. Group 3: Geopolitical Factors - The ceasefire agreement between Iran and Israel has alleviated concerns over Middle Eastern supply disruptions, although tensions remain due to recent U.S. airstrikes on Iranian nuclear facilities [2]. - The geopolitical situation in the Middle East is expected to influence fuel oil prices, with potential for further escalation [2].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the given content. 2. Core View of the Report - The PP market is expected to remain in a pattern of strong supply and weak demand. On the supply side, new device production capacity will increase significantly from June to August, and the device maintenance season is coming to an end, leading to a supply rebound. On the demand side, it is still in the off - season of production and sales, and downstream demand is mainly for rigid replenishment, with limited demand growth [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Polypropylene Price and Volatility - The monthly price range forecast for polypropylene is 6900 - 7200 yuan/ton, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 13.77% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 33.0% [1]. 3.2 Polypropylene Hedging Strategy - **Inventory Management**: For enterprises with high finished - product inventory worried about price drops, they can short PP2509 futures with a 25% hedging ratio at 7100 - 7200 yuan/ton to lock in profits and make up for production costs; sell PP2509C7200 call options with a 50% hedging ratio at 50 - 100 yuan to collect premiums and reduce costs, and lock in the spot selling price if prices rise [1]. - **Procurement Management**: For enterprises with low regular inventory and hoping to purchase according to orders, they can buy PP2509 futures with a 50% hedging ratio at 6900 - 7000 yuan/ton to lock in procurement costs in advance; sell PP2509P7000 put options with a 75% hedging ratio at 50 - 100 yuan to collect premiums and reduce procurement costs, and lock in the spot purchase price if prices fall [1]. 3.3 Market News Impact - Trump's statement about a cease - fire between Israel and Iran led to an opening limit - down in oil prices and a general decline in chemical products [2]. 3.4 Supply - Side Factors - New devices from Rulong 2 - line and Zhenhai Phase II were put into production during the Dragon Boat Festival and last weekend. Multiple devices will be put into operation from June to August, increasing PP production capacity significantly. In July, PP device maintenance is expected to decrease, and devices will gradually resume operation [4]. 3.5 Demand - Side Factors - It is currently the off - season for downstream sales, and with poor overall profits this year, domestic demand has been weak recently [4]. 3.6 Polypropylene Daily Data - **Futures Prices and Spreads**: Compared with June 24th and June 18th, on June 25th, the daily change of most futures prices was 0, while the weekly change showed a downward trend. For example, the PP01 contract decreased by 126 yuan/ton week - on - week, the PP05 contract decreased by 142 yuan/ton week - on - week, and the PP09 contract decreased by 140 yuan/ton week - on - week [5][7]. - **Spot Prices and Regional Spreads**: Spot prices in different regions also showed a downward trend. For example, the price in East China decreased by 10 yuan/ton compared with June 18th [7]. - **Upstream Prices and Processing Profits**: Brent crude oil prices decreased by 8.97 dollars/barrel week - on - week, and the profits of different production methods of PP also changed. For example, the oil - to - PP profit increased by 279.7261 yuan/ton week - on - week [7].