Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the given content. 2. Core View of the Report - According to the closing prices of adjacent trading days, the Nanhua Composite Index fell by -1.25% today. Among the sector indices, the Nanhua Black Index had the largest increase of 0.7%, and the Nanhua Non - ferrous Metals Index had the smallest increase of 0.33%. The Nanhua Precious Metals Index had the largest decline of -2.11%, and the Nanhua Agricultural Products Index had the smallest decline of -0.15%. Among the theme indices, the Black Raw Materials Index had the largest increase of 1.27%, and the Economic Crops Index had the smallest increase of 0.58%. The Energy Index had the largest decline of -2.99%, and the Oilseeds and Oils Index had the smallest decline of -0.25%. Among the single - product indices of commodity futures, LPG had the largest increase of 5.73%, and Coke had the largest decline of -9.37% [1][4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Nanhua Composite Index and Sector Index - The Nanhua Composite Index closed at 3080.83 today, down 38.92 points or -1.25% from yesterday. Its annualized return rate is 22.34%, annualized volatility is 15.11%, and the Sharpe ratio is 1.48 [3]. - The Nanhua Precious Metals Index closed at 1972.03, down 42.46 points or -2.11% from yesterday, with an annualized volatility of 32.96% and a Sharpe ratio of 2.38 [3]. - The Nanhua Index (not clearly named in the text) closed at 4220.17, down 44.32 points or -1.04% from yesterday, with an annualized volatility of 16.57% and a Sharpe ratio of 0.81 [3]. 3.2 Single - Product Index of Commodity Futures - In the black sector, some varieties' single - product index daily changes are presented, but specific data is not detailed in a clear way [5]. - In the agricultural products sector, the daily changes of single - product indices of some varieties are as follows: rapeseed oil 0.22%, rapeseed -0.56%, rapeseed meal -0.82%, pig -1.11%, corn 0.13%, and starch 2.91% [8]. - In the energy and chemical sector, the daily changes of single - product indices of some varieties are as follows: LPG 5.73%, synthetic resin 1.23%, polyethylene -1.57%, naphtha 1.07%, PTA -1.03%, crude oil -5.07%, and fuel oil -1.03% [11].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The precious metals market weakened significantly this week, with high - volatility trends continuing under the influence of macro - expectations and geopolitical situations. The price movement was mainly affected by the escalation of the US - Iran geopolitical situation, inflation rebound expectations driven by rising oil prices, and the Fed's hawkish stance [7]. - In the short term, the precious metals market will continue to face a tug - of - war among the risk - aversion sentiment under the US - Iran situation, the tenacity of inflation expectations, and potential economic stagflation risks. If the geopolitical conflict persists and oil prices remain high, inflation expectations may strengthen, suppressing the rebound space of gold and silver. However, if more data confirm the slowdown of the US economy, the market's pricing of stagflation risks may increase, boosting the performance of precious metals [7]. - In the long - term, the long - term bullish logic of precious metals has not fundamentally reversed due to continuous gold purchases by global central banks, the reshaping of the currency system's credit, and the tight supply of silver. In the short term, the prices of gold and silver are expected to oscillate to digest the previous over - heated gains [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Weekly Key Points Summary - **Market Review**: This week, the precious metals market weakened significantly. The US - Iran situation, inflation expectations, and the Fed's stance affected the market. The US - Iran tension at the beginning of the week pushed up the US dollar and US bond yields, pressuring gold and silver prices. Although the situation eased later, the upward resistance remained strong. The US economic data showed co - existence of economic slowdown and inflation resilience, and the Fed's stance compressed the interest - rate cut expectations, leading to a significant decline in gold and silver prices on Thursday night [7]. - **Market Outlook**: In the short term, the precious metals market will be influenced by multiple factors. If the geopolitical conflict persists, inflation expectations may strengthen, suppressing the prices. If the US economic slowdown is further confirmed, the market's concern about stagflation may boost precious metals. In the long - term, the long - term bullish logic remains unchanged, and in the short term, the prices are expected to oscillate [7]. 3.2. Futures and Spot Markets - **Price Changes**: As of March 20, 2026, the Shanghai silver main contract 2606 closed at 17,625 yuan/kg, down 15.76% for the week; the Shanghai gold main contract 2606 closed at 1,039.22 yuan/g, down 8.28% for the week [12]. - **ETF Net Positions**: As of March 19, 2026, the net positions of gold and silver ETFs in the overseas market decreased. The SPDR gold ETF net position was 1,062.13 tons, down 1.28% month - on - month; the SLV silver ETF net position was 15,187 tons, down 2.3% month - on - month [17]. - **Regional Investment Demand**: As of February 2026, North American and Asian gold ETFs had net inflows, while European ones had net outflows. North American and European net positions remained high, and Asian ETF positions increased steadily [22]. - **COMEX Net Long Positions**: As of March 10, 2026, the net long positions of COMEX gold and silver both increased. The COMEX gold net position was 163,132 contracts, up 1.90% month - on - month; the COMEX silver net position was 24,578 contracts, up 5.31% month - on - month [27]. - **Basis**: As of March 19, 2026, the basis of Shanghai gold and silver main contracts strengthened week - on - week. The basis of the Shanghai gold main contract was 21.00 yuan/g, and that of the Shanghai silver main contract was 1,062 yuan/kg [30]. - **Internal - External Price Difference**: As of March 19, 2026, the internal - external price difference of gold widened, while that of silver converged. The internal - external price difference of the Shanghai gold main contract was 42.89 yuan/g, and that of the Shanghai silver main contract was 1,859 yuan/kg [33]. - **Inventory Changes**: As of March 19, 2026, the COMEX gold and silver inventories decreased, while the Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) gold and silver inventories increased. The COMEX gold inventory was 32,054,275.29 ounces, down 1.84% month - on - month; the SHFE gold inventory was 105,417 kg, up 0.37% month - on - month. The COMEX silver inventory was 337,892,693 ounces, down 2.10% month - on - month; the SHFE silver inventory was 326,566 kg, up 27.6% month - on - month [36]. - **Gold - Silver Ratio**: As of March 19, 2026, the gold - silver ratio (London gold/silver price) was 63.90, up 1.59 from the previous week [39]. 3.3. Industry Supply and Demand - **Silver Industry**: As of December 2025, the import volume of silver and silver ore sand increased significantly. The import volume of Chinese silver was 334,742.41 kg, up 27.03% month - on - month; the import volume of silver ore sand and its concentrates was 239,325,381 kg, up 32.29% month - on - month. Due to the growth of silver demand in the semiconductor industry, the output of integrated circuits continued to rise, and the year - on - year growth rate tended to be stable. As of February 2026, the monthly output of integrated circuits was 4,807,346 pieces, and the year - on - year growth rate was 12.40% [43][47]. - **Gold Supply and Demand**: In 2025, the investment demand for gold ETFs increased significantly, and emerging - country central banks continued to purchase gold. The total global gold demand reached 5,002 tons, a record high, and the total gold demand amount was 55.5 billion US dollars. The gold investment demand reached a milestone level of 2,175 tons, and the annual net position of gold ETFs increased by 801 tons [51]. - **Silver Supply and Demand**: In 2025, the improvement of the silver supply - demand situation was mainly due to the recovery of mine production and a slight increase in recycled silver, while investment and industrial demand declined slightly, significantly narrowing the market shortage. It is predicted that the global total silver supply will increase by 3% to about 1,050 million ounces, the total demand will decrease by 4% to about 1,120 million ounces, and the supply - demand gap will narrow to about - 70 million ounces, a decrease of about 53% month - on - month [55]. 3.4. Macroeconomic and Options - **Dollar Index and US Bond Yields**: As of March 19, 2026, the dollar index was 99.23, up 0.30% week - on - week; the 10 - year US bond real yield was 1.86%, up 0.50% week - on - week [60]. - **10Y - 2Y US Bond Yield Spread and Other Indicators**: As of March 19, 2026, the 10Y - 2Y US bond yield spread was 0.50%, down 12.30% week - on - week; the CBOE gold volatility was 31.05 (31.09 in the previous week); the ratio of the S&P 500 to the London gold price was 1.42 (1.30 in the previous week) [61]. - **Central Bank Gold Purchases**: In January 2026, the global central bank's gold - purchasing pace slowed down. The global central bank's net gold purchase was 5 tons, significantly lower than the monthly average of about 27 tons in 2025. Some central banks increased their gold reserves, while others decreased them, indicating that global central banks continue to diversify their gold reserves, but the short - term buying momentum has weakened [65].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The short - term trend of various commodities is affected by geopolitical conflicts, central bank policies, supply - demand relationships, and other factors. Different commodities show different trends such as short - term adjustment, shock, and strength or weakness [1][2][3] - The long - term trend of some commodities is still influenced by fundamental supply - demand relationships and macro - economic factors, and there are opportunities and risks in different industries [10][12][13] Summary by Category Financial Futures - **Stock Index**: The Fed maintains interest rates, slowing down the rate - cut expectation. The strengthening of the US dollar index and Middle - East conflicts put pressure on the A - share market. In the short term, the stock index continues to adjust. In the medium - to - long - term, the bullish logic remains stable, and large - cap stock indices are relatively resistant to decline [2] - **Treasury Bonds**: The escalation of the Middle - East situation triggers risk - aversion sentiment. The central bank releases signals to stabilize the market. The easing remarks of the US and Israel lead to a decline in oil prices, and the risk - aversion sentiment may weaken. Short - term bond futures may fall [2] Container Shipping (Europe Line) - Geopolitical tensions threaten key shipping lanes. Some shipping companies' price - holding actions are positive, but the traditional off - season in April, sufficient cabin supply, and possible restoration of trade flow in the Strait lead to short - term high - level shocks [3] Non - ferrous Metals - **Platinum and Palladium**: The Middle - East geopolitical conflict raises oil prices, delaying the Fed's rate - cut expectation. Uncertain US tariff policies and supply disruptions in South Africa lead to short - term weak shocks [4] - **Gold and Silver**: The Middle - East situation squeezes the Fed's rate - cut expectation, and price drops significantly. Global central banks' hawkish policies and inflation concerns lead to short - term weak shocks [5] - **Copper**: Multiple macro - negatives and fundamental contradictions lead to a large outflow of market funds. The copper price breaks through key support levels, and the supply is in surplus, with high inventory pressure [5] - **Aluminum**: The US - Iran conflict raises energy prices, delaying the Fed's rate - cut expectation. Market concerns about liquidity tightening and economic recession lead to a panic decline in aluminum prices, and the short - term trend is dominated by the war situation [6] - **Alumina**: Domestic production capacity decline due to some enterprises' maintenance, but new production capacity in Guangxi is about to be released. Overseas, geopolitical factors lead to a decline in spot prices and an increase in import costs, with a mixed fundamental situation [6] - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: It has a strong follow - up relationship with Shanghai aluminum, and the lower support is strong due to raw material shortages and tax - refund policy impacts [7] - **Zinc**: The impact of Iran on the supply side is small. The import TC declines, and the domestic smelting end maintains production enthusiasm. Downstream demand is delayed, and inventory pressure is large. The zinc price is under upward pressure [8][9] - **Nickel and Stainless Steel**: The resumption of Indonesian wet - process production capacity, seasonal decline in nickel ore shipments, and weak demand in the new - energy off - season. The game between nickel iron and scrap stainless steel intensifies. The release rhythm of stainless - steel demand is the key variable [9] - **Tin**: Panic sentiment deepens. On the supply side, raw - material supply has a buffer. On the demand side, inventory is high, and spot trading is sluggish. The tin price is in a weak shock [9] - **Lithium Carbonate**: The Middle - East situation is uncertain, affecting the demand side. However, the long - term growth logic of downstream demand supports the price. Follow - up attention should be paid to the actual production and inventory - reduction speed in March [10] - **Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon**: The industry is at the bottom of the production - capacity cycle. Wait for capacity clearance and improvement of the supply - demand pattern, and track the "anti - involution" process and marginal optimization signals of the supply - demand structure [10] - **Lead**: On the supply side, primary lead smelting resumes steadily, and the import window opens. On the demand side, terminal consumption recovers slowly. The lead price is expected to oscillate and gradually stop falling [11] Black Metals - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil**: The Iran geopolitical conflict raises energy prices. Rumors of procurement restrictions on BHP iron ore and post - holiday restocking demand lead to tight tradable inventory at ports. However, high inventory and high warehouse receipts of hot - rolled coils, weak real - estate new construction, and export resistance limit the rebound height [12] - **Iron Ore**: The iron - ore price strengthens in the short term due to negotiation events, but the sustainability is weak. Shipping is affected by weather, and freight increases limitedly. The Middle - East Strait situation affects the arrival at Chinese ports. Terminal demand is weak, and inventory pressure is high. The overall supply - demand situation is oversupply [13] - **Coking Coal and Coke**: In March - April, the importance of real - data verification increases. Geopolitical factors may suppress steel exports, and the black - metal prices may face downward pressure. Although the coal - coke prices have some support at the bottom, the surplus problem restricts the price elasticity [14] - **Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese**: The lower - cost support of ferroalloys is gradually strengthening, but weak downstream steel demand and high inventory pressure limit the upward space [15] Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: The US - Iran conflict first raises oil prices, and then the price cools down due to some news. The closure of the Strait of Hormuz and tight storage capacity lead to increased fluctuations [16] - **Fuel Oil**: The supply tightening drives the market. Low - sulfur fuel oil sets new historical highs, and high - sulfur fuel oil remains at a high level. The short - term strong pattern in Asia is difficult to change [16] - **Asphalt**: Geopolitical disturbances lead to short - term upward pulses in oil prices, overriding the asphalt's own fundamentals [17] - **Pure Benzene - Styrene**: Geopolitical situations dominate. The navigation of the Strait of Hormuz is unstable, and Asian refineries' raw - material supply is blocked. Domestic pure - benzene maintenance is advanced, and styrene devices reduce production. The price is in a strong shock before the Strait navigation problem is solved [17] - **LPG**: Geopolitical risks increase supply risks, and the cost - side impetus strengthens. Domestic supply shrinks slightly, but the arrival volume increases. The price fluctuation center moves up, and the volatility is high [18] - **Methanol**: The US - Iran situation dominates the market. The trading is slow. The Strait may be partially opened, and the MTO profit expansion supports the methanol price. The import expectation of the 05 contract changes, and the price fluctuates violently [18] - **PP and Propylene**: The fundamentals support the prices. Before the geopolitical risks are removed, the prices are expected to maintain a strong shock. Follow - up attention should be paid to the Middle - East situation and the Strait of Hormuz navigation [18] - **Plastic**: Under the expectation of supply reduction, the near - month support is strong. Follow - up attention should be paid to the Middle - East situation and the Strait of Hormuz navigation [19] - **Rubber**: The disappointment of rate - cut expectation, stagflation concerns, and risk - aversion sentiment put pressure on natural rubber. Domestic production areas start test - tapping, and imports decrease. Synthetic rubber is supported by oil prices and butadiene supply, and the price fluctuates widely [19] - **Urea**: The US - Iran war creates a "hard gap" in global urea supply, pushing up international prices. Domestic supply - demand is in a tight balance, and the rising international fertilizer prices transmit bullish sentiment [20] - **Soda Ash**: The daily production of soda ash is at a high level, and the supply pressure continues. The rigid demand is stable and weak. The inventory performance is better than expected. The price increase space is limited, and the long - term supply is expected to remain high [20] - **Glass**: The cold - repair expectation of float glass continues, and the daily melting is declining. High intermediate inventory is a risk point. The supply return expectation and high inventory limit the price increase, and the demand needs verification [21] - **Caustic Soda**: The domestic device operation is stable, and short - term supply tightens. The industry inventory is high, and the overall supply is loose. Downstream demand is mainly for rigid procurement, and the export inquiry increases, supporting the futures price. The futures and spot prices show some differentiation [22] Agricultural Products - **Live Pigs**: Low pig prices lead to weak fresh - meat sales of slaughtering enterprises, and the initiative to store in warehouses weakens. The market lacks clear positives, and the futures price continues to decline [23] - **Oilseeds**: The Sino - US negotiation in April is postponed. In the short term, the spot price is supported by slow Brazilian shipments and rising freight. In the medium term, the large - supply logic remains unchanged. The price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal is repaired [23] - **Oils**: The oil market follows the crude - oil trend. The government's indecision on B50 and export policies leads to a decline in market sentiment. Short - term attention should be paid to the Iran situation and crude - oil price changes [24] - **Cotton**: The supply - demand tightening expectation supports the cotton price. The implementation of the import - quota policy narrows the price difference between domestic and foreign cotton. The cotton price may have a small - scale correction, but the downstream consumption is strong, and the correction space is limited [24] - **Eggs**: In the short term, the egg price may remain weakly stable. With the approaching of the Tomb - Sweeping Festival, the demand support and rising breeding costs will drive the egg price to rise [25][26] - **Apples**: The apple futures market is strongly supported by fundamentals and delivery logic. The shortage of delivery products in the 05 contract supports the price, and the market maintains a strong shock [26] - **Red Dates**: The market focus is on the demand side. The downstream sales are mediocre, and the price is under pressure, mainly in a low - level shock [26]

1. Report Information - Report Title: Stock Index Futures Data Daily Report [1] - Report Date: March 20, 2026 [2] 2. IM Futures 2.1 Daily Quotes - The CSI 1000 index closed at 7,783.43, down 1.59%. The total trading volume of the four IM contracts was 290,587 lots, an increase of 8,391 lots from the previous day. The total open interest was 386,516 lots, a decrease of 8,321 lots from the previous day. The main contract (IM2606) closed at 7,560, down 1.26% [4][5]. - The main contract was at a discount of 223.43 points to the spot index, an increase of 4.8 points from the previous day. The annualized basis rate was -11.36% [5]. 2.2 Basis and Spread - The basis and spread data of the four IM contracts showed different trends, with the annualized roll - over costs and dividend impacts varying across contracts [9][12]. 2.3 Major Seats - The trading volume, long positions, and short positions of major seats in different contracts (IM2604, IM2606, IM2609) changed compared with the previous day, with some seats increasing and some decreasing their positions [16][18][20]. 3. IF Futures 3.1 Daily Quotes - The CSI 300 index closed at 4,567.02, down 0.35%. The total trading volume of the four IF contracts was 140,529 lots, a decrease of 12,841 lots from the previous day. The total open interest was 261,102 lots, a decrease of 21,044 lots from the previous day. The main contract (IF2606) closed at 4,486.4, down 0.28% [21][22]. - The main contract was at a discount of 80.62 points to the spot index, an increase of 0.43 points from the previous day. The annualized basis rate was -6.9% [22]. 3.2 Basis and Spread - Similar to IM futures, the basis and spread of IF contracts also showed different characteristics, with the annualized roll - over costs and dividend impacts varying by contract [27][30][32]. 3.3 Major Seats - The positions of major seats in IF contracts (IF2604, IF2606, IF2609) changed, with some seats adjusting their long and short positions [36][38][39]. 4. IC Futures 4.1 Daily Quotes - The CSI 500 index closed at 7,760.04, down 1.49%. The total trading volume of the four IC contracts was 200,135 lots, a decrease of 8,295 lots from the previous day. The total open interest was 286,787 lots, a decrease of 19,285 lots from the previous day. The main contract (IC2606) closed at 7,559.4, down 1.16% [41][42]. - The main contract was at a discount of 200.64 points to the spot index, an increase of 5.45 points from the previous day. The annualized basis rate was -10.2% [42]. 4.2 Basis and Spread - The basis and spread of IC contracts had their own characteristics, with different annualized roll - over costs and dividend impacts for each contract [46][48][51]. 4.3 Major Seats - The trading volume and positions of major seats in IC contracts (IC2604, IC2606, IC2609) changed compared with the previous day [56][57][59]. 5. IH Futures 5.1 Daily Quotes - The SSE 50 index closed at 2,883.86, down 1.11%. The total trading volume of the four IH contracts was 68,764 lots, a decrease of 117 lots from the previous day. The total open interest was 99,575 lots, a decrease of 10,992 lots from the previous day. The main contract (IH2606) closed at 2,865.8, down 0.95% [61][62]. - The main contract was at a discount of 18.06 points to the spot index, an increase of 4.37 points from the previous day. The annualized basis rate was -2.42% [62]. 5.2 Basis and Spread - The basis and spread of IH contracts showed different trends, with the annualized roll - over costs and dividend impacts varying across contracts [66][67][68]. 5.3 Major Seats - The positions of major seats in IH contracts (IH2604, IH2606, IH2609) changed, and different seats had different adjustments in their long and short positions [72][74][76].

关 注 我 们 获 取 更 多 资 讯 期货投资咨询证号：Z0020723 联系电话：4008-8787-66 瑞达期货研究院 「2026.3.20」 宏观市场周报 作者：廖宏斌 业务咨询 添加客服 目录 1、本周小结及下周 配置建议 2、重要新闻及事件 3、本周国内外经济 数据 4、下周重要经济指 标及经济大事 「本周小结及下周配置建议」 | 股票 | | 债券 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 沪深 300 -2.19% | | 10 年国债到期收益率+0.01%/本周变动+0.04BP | | | 沪深 300 股指期货 -2.20% | | 主力 10 年期国债期货 +0.02% | | | 本周点评：A股主要指数本周普遍下跌，除创业板指涨 | | 本周点评：随着债市逐步定价通胀预期，长端收益率已 | | | 超1%外，其余指数均有不同幅度下跌。四期指集体走 | | 调整至前低，配置盘入场意愿有所增强，对长端及超长 | | | 弱，中小盘股弱于大盘蓝筹股。本周，受到海外地缘冲 | | 端形成一定支撑。但中东能源危机骤然升级，油价日内 | | | 突持续不断和美联储3月 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The lithium carbonate futures main contract showed a weak and volatile trend this week, with a decline of 5.41%. As of the end - of - week closing, the main contract was quoted at 143,860 yuan/ton. The macro - economic environment features the implementation of a more proactive fiscal policy in 2026. In terms of fundamentals, the price of lithium ore has weakened with the回调 of lithium carbonate prices. The supply of lithium carbonate is expected to remain sufficient, and the demand is improving. The overall industrial inventory is slightly decreasing. The report suggests light - position short - term long trading at low prices, while paying attention to trading rhythm and risk control [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog 3.1. Weekly Highlights Summary - **Market Performance**: The lithium carbonate main contract was weak and volatile on the weekly line, with a decline of 5.41% and a closing price of 143,860 yuan/ton [5]. - **Macro - environment**: In 2026, a more proactive fiscal policy will be implemented, focusing on seven aspects such as supporting the construction of a strong domestic market and accelerating high - level scientific and technological self - reliance. - **Fundamentals** - **Raw Materials**: The price of lithium ore weakened, overseas miners were more willing to sell at favorable prices, and smelters were more active in inquiring and buying [5]. - **Supply**: Upstream smelters adopted a price - holding and selling - sparing strategy, and the weekly inventory of smelters increased slightly. The export volume and average price of Chilean lithium carbonate increased significantly, and the domestic supply is expected to remain sufficient [5]. - **Demand**: Downstream battery factories maintained a strategy of buying on dips. The spot market trading sentiment became active as the lithium price declined, and the downstream inventory increased weekly [5]. - **Investment Suggestion**: Light - position short - term long trading at low prices, with attention to trading rhythm and risk control [5]. 3.2. Futures and Spot Market Conditions 3.2.1. Futures Price - The futures price of lithium carbonate showed a weakening trend. As of March 20, 2026, the closing price of the main contract was 143,860 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 8,220 yuan/ton. The near - far month spread was 1,140 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 3,420 yuan/ton [11]. 3.2.2. Spot Price - The spot price of lithium carbonate also weakened. As of March 20, 2026, the average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 149,000 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 10,000 yuan/ton. The basis of the main contract was 5,140 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 1,780 yuan/ton [15]. 3.3. Upstream Market Conditions 3.3.1. Lithium Spodumene - The price of lithium spodumene concentrate (6% - 6.5%) weakened. As of March 20, 2026, the average price was 2,445 US dollars/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 60 US dollars/ton [21]. 3.3.2. Lithium Mica - The price of lithium mica also weakened. As of March 20, 2026, the average price of phospho - lithium - aluminum stone was 13,000 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 1,000 yuan/ton; the average price of lithium mica (2% ≤ Li₂O < 3%) was 6,825 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 463 yuan/ton [25]. 3.4. Industry Conditions 3.4.1. Supply Side - **Import and Export**: As of February 2026, the monthly import volume of lithium carbonate was 26,426.79 tons, a decrease of 431.27 tons from January, a decline of 1.61%, and a year - on - year increase of 114.36%. The monthly export volume was 596.077 tons, an increase of 124.52 tons from January, an increase of 26.41%, and a year - on - year increase of 42.9% [31]. - **Production**: As of February 2026, the monthly output of lithium carbonate was 53,520 tons, a decrease of 5,950 tons from January, a decline of 10.01%, and a year - on - year increase of 49.96%. The monthly operating rate was 43%, a month - on - month decrease of 5% and a year - on - year decrease of 32% [31]. 3.4.2. Demand Side - **Hexafluorophosphate Lithium**: As of March 20, 2026, the average price was 111,000 yuan/ton, with no change week - on - week. As of February 2026, the monthly output of electrolyte was 184,380 tons, a decrease of 33,220 tons from January, a decline of 15.27%, and a year - on - year increase of 37.87% [34]. - **Lithium Iron Phosphate**: As of the latest data this week, the average price of power - type lithium iron phosphate was 57,600 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 1,300 yuan/ton. As of February 2026, the monthly output of lithium iron phosphate cathode materials was 267,980 tons, an increase of 22,900 tons from January, an increase of 9.34%, and a year - on - year increase of 67.91%. The monthly operating rate was 55%, a month - on - month increase of 1% and a year - on - year decrease of 2% [41]. - **Ternary Materials**: As of February 2026, the monthly output of ternary materials was 53,590 tons, a decrease of 5,970 tons from January, a decline of 10.02%, and a year - on - year increase of 19.3%. The monthly operating rate was 45%, a month - on - month decrease of 5% and a year - on - year increase of 5%. As of the latest data this week, the prices of 811 - type, 622 - type, and 523 - type ternary materials remained stable [44]. - **Lithium Manganate**: As of February 2026, the monthly output of lithium manganate was 9,470 tons, a decrease of 270 tons from January, a decline of 2.77%, and a year - on - year increase of 7.61%. As of the latest data this week, the average price of lithium manganate was 56,000 yuan/ton, with no change week - on - week [49]. - **Lithium Cobaltate**: As of February 2026, the monthly output of lithium cobaltate was 13,120 tons, a decrease of 2,510 tons from January, a decline of 16.06%, and a year - on - year increase of 108.59%. As of the latest data this week, the average price of lithium cobaltate was 400,500 yuan/ton, with no change week - on - week [52]. 3.4.3. Application Side - **New Energy Vehicle Sales**: As of February 2026, the penetration rate of new energy vehicles was 41.18%, with a month - on - month increase of 0.9% and a year - on - year increase of 0.87%. The monthly production was 694,000 vehicles, a month - on - month decrease of 33.33%; the sales volume was 765,000 vehicles, a month - on - month decrease of 19.05% [56]. - **New Energy Vehicle Exports**: As of February 2026, the cumulative export volume of new energy vehicles was 583,000, a year - on - year increase of 106.74% [59]. 3.5. Options Market - According to the option parity theory, the premium of the synthetic underlying asset is 0.24, presenting a positive arbitrage opportunity. Based on the performance of at - the - money option contracts and fundamental conditions, it is recommended to construct a long straddle option strategy to bet on increased volatility [62].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, the domestic urea market has shown a slight decline. The mainstream ex - factory price of small and medium - sized granules in Shandong has dropped to 1820 - 1840 yuan/ton, with an average price decrease of 10 yuan/ton from the previous week [6]. - In the near future, domestic urea production has slightly decreased. Next week, one enterprise's equipment is planned to stop production, and 2 - 3 enterprises' stopped equipment may resume production. Considering short - term enterprise malfunctions, production is expected to continue to decline [6]. - Agricultural demand has gradually weakened, and top - dressing for green - turning wheat is basically coming to an end. Policies on ensuring supply and stabilizing prices of urea have been frequently issued, and some reserve supplies have been released in advance, cooling the market trading sentiment [6]. - The operating rate of high - nitrogen fertilizer in compound fertilizer plants has increased, leading to an increase in industrial consumption of urea. In the short term, the capacity utilization rate of compound fertilizer is expected to remain stable with a slight increase [6]. - This week, the inventory of domestic urea enterprises has continued to decline. Affected by multiple factors, the trading atmosphere in the market is fair, the overall shipment of urea factories is smooth, and some factories are short of supplies. In the short term, due to rigid demand and international market sentiment, urea is expected to maintain a balance between production and sales, with local shortages due to maintenance, and overall inventory may continue to decline [6]. - The UR2605 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 1820 - 1900 in the short term [6]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. Week - to - Week Summary - **Market Review**: The domestic urea market was stable with a slight decline this week. The mainstream ex - factory price of small and medium - sized granules in Shandong was 1820 - 1840 yuan/ton, with an average price decrease of 10 yuan/ton from the previous week [6]. - **Market Outlook**: Production is expected to continue to decline. Agricultural demand is weakening, while industrial demand from compound fertilizer plants is increasing. Inventory is likely to continue to decline. - **Strategy Recommendation**: The UR2605 contract is expected to fluctuate between 1820 - 1900 in the short term [6]. 3.2. Futures and Spot Market - **Futures Market** - The price of the Zhengzhou urea main contract fluctuated and closed down this week, with a weekly decline of 2.54% [9]. - As of March 20, the UR 5 - 9 spread was - 53 [12]. - As of March 20, the number of Zhengzhou urea warehouse receipts was 8499, an increase of 444 compared to last week [20]. - **Spot Market** - As of March 19, the mainstream price in Shandong was 1880 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 yuan; the mainstream price in Jiangsu was 1880 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 yuan [25]. - As of March 19, the FOB price of urea in China was 645 US dollars/ton, unchanged from last week [29]. - As of March 19, the urea basis was 21 yuan/ton, an increase of 21 yuan/ton from last week [32]. 3.3. Industry Chain Analysis - **Upstream** - As of March 18, the market price of Qinhuangdao thermal coal with a calorific value of 5500 kcal was 685 yuan/ton, unchanged from last week [36]. - As of March 19, the closing price of NYMEX natural gas was 3.13 US dollars/million British thermal units, a decrease of 0.12 US dollars/million British thermal units from last week [36]. - **Industry** - As of March 19, the output of Chinese urea producers was 151.94 tons, a decrease of 1.82 tons from the previous period, a month - on - month decrease of 1.18%; the capacity utilization rate was 92.19%, a decrease of 1.10% from the previous period [38]. - As of March 19, the sample inventory of Chinese urea ports was 16.7 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.2 tons, a decline of 11.64%. As of March 18, the total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises was 80.89 tons, a decrease of 14.87 tons from the previous period, a month - on - month decrease of 15.53% [42]. - In February 2026, urea exports were 11.15 tons, a month - on - month decline of 63.78%; the average export price was 398.52 US dollars/ton, a month - on - month increase of 0.26% [45]. - **Downstream** - As of March 19, the capacity utilization rate of compound fertilizers was 49.97%, an increase of 4.41 percentage points from the previous period. It is expected to remain stable with a slight increase in the next period [49]. - As of March 19, the weekly average capacity utilization rate of Chinese melamine was 59.31%, an increase of 5.96 percentage points from last week [49].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the natural rubber market was pressured by the expectation of domestic tapping, causing the rubber price center to decline. The import rubber market's offer prices dropped, and the spot price was weak. The spot price center of domestic natural rubber also moved down, with the futures market experiencing wide - range fluctuations and the spot offer prices slightly decreasing. The market sentiment was weak, with limited actual buying [7]. - The tapping in Yunnan's domestic rubber - producing area is progressing steadily, and new domestic rubber is gradually entering the market. Overseas natural rubber - producing areas are in the low - production season. Recently, the bonded warehouses in Qingdao Port have continued to accumulate inventory, while the general trade warehouses have reduced inventory, resulting in a slight reduction in the total inventory. The arrival of US - dollar - denominated standard rubber at the port remains at a low level, and tire enterprises' production has recovered to a high level, replenishing raw materials at low prices. It is expected that the inventory will continue to decline slightly in the short term [7]. - This week, the operating rate of domestic tire enterprises increased slightly week - on - week. Semi - steel tire enterprises are mainly fulfilling foreign trade orders, and the domestic sales supply is tight, so the capacity utilization rate remains at a high level. The capacity utilization rate of all - steel tire enterprises has slightly increased, and the concentrated shipment driven by price - increase news has supported the overall capacity utilization rate. At the end of the quarter, some enterprises are expected to maintain a high operating rate to complete quarterly tasks, but individual enterprises may flexibly adjust production schedules [7]. - The ru2605 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 15,950 - 16,500 in the short term, and the nr2605 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 12,750 - 13,300 [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Week - on - Week Summary - **Market Performance**: The domestic natural rubber market was pressured by the expectation of domestic tapping, with the rubber price center moving down. The import rubber market's offer prices dropped, and the spot price was weak. The domestic natural rubber spot price center also declined, with the futures market fluctuating widely and the spot offer prices slightly decreasing. The market sentiment was weak, with limited actual buying [7]. - **Market Outlook**: The tapping in Yunnan's domestic rubber - producing area is progressing steadily, and new domestic rubber is gradually entering the market. Overseas natural rubber - producing areas are in the low - production season. Recently, the bonded warehouses in Qingdao Port have continued to accumulate inventory, while the general trade warehouses have reduced inventory, resulting in a slight reduction in the total inventory. The arrival of US - dollar - denominated standard rubber at the port remains at a low level, and tire enterprises' production has recovered to a high level, replenishing raw materials at low prices. It is expected that the inventory will continue to decline slightly in the short term. The operating rate of domestic tire enterprises increased slightly week - on - week, and it is expected to remain high at the end of the quarter, but individual enterprises may flexibly adjust production schedules [7]. - **Strategy Suggestion**: The ru2605 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 15,950 - 16,500 in the short term, and the nr2605 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 12,750 - 13,300 [7]. 3.2 Futures Market - **Price Movement**: This week, the main contract price of Shanghai rubber futures closed down with a weekly decline of 4.56%, and the main contract price of 20 - number rubber closed down with a weekly decline of 3.42% [10]. - **Position Analysis**: Not provided with significant analysis content in the text. - **Inter - term Spread**: As of March 20, the spread between the May and September contracts of Shanghai rubber was 50, and the spread between the May and June contracts of 20 - number rubber was - 90 [20]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: As of March 20, the warehouse receipts of Shanghai rubber were 125,440 tons, an increase of 4,600 tons from last week; the warehouse receipts of 20 - number rubber were 48,082 tons, a decrease of 1,209 tons from last week [24]. 3.3 Spot Market - **Price and Basis**: As of March 19, the price of state - owned whole latex was 16,000 yuan/ton, a decrease of 600 yuan/ton from last week. As of March 19, the basis of 20 - number rubber was 602 yuan/ton, an increase of 30 yuan/ton from last week; the non - standard basis was - 940 yuan/ton, an increase of 275 yuan/ton from last week [31][36]. 3.4 Upstream Situation - **Thailand's Raw Material Price and Processing Profit**: As of March 20, the field latex price in Thailand's natural rubber raw material market was 74.5 (+3.5) Thai baht/kg; the cup lump price was 56.5 (-1.5) Thai baht/kg. The theoretical processing profit of standard rubber was - 32 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 19 US dollars/ton from last week [39]. - **Domestic Producing Area Raw Material Price**: Currently, large - scale tapping in Xishuangbanna, Yunnan, has not started. The previous hail and rain weather had limited impact, and the rubber trees are growing well. Tapping is expected to start around the 20th - 22nd [42]. 3.5 Industry Situation - **Import Volume**: According to customs data, in February 2026, China's natural rubber (including technical - grade rubber, latex, smoked sheets, primary - form rubber, mixed rubber, and compound rubber) import volume was 461,500 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 28.46% and a year - on - year decrease of 8.29%. The cumulative import volume from January to February 2026 was 1,106,500 tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 1.36% [45]. - **Inventory in Qingdao**: As of March 15, 2026, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 677,600 tons, a decrease of 2,800 tons from the previous period, a decrease of 0.42%. The bonded area inventory was 121,300 tons, an increase of 1.43%; the general trade inventory was 556,300 tons, a decrease of 0.81%. The inbound rate of the sample bonded warehouses in Qingdao Port increased by 1.71 percentage points, and the outbound rate increased by 1.71 percentage points; the inbound rate of the general trade warehouses increased by 1.37 percentage points, and the outbound rate increased by 2.22 percentage points. Currently, the bonded warehouses in Qingdao Port continue to accumulate inventory, while the general trade warehouses reduce inventory, resulting in a slight reduction in the total inventory [49]. 3.6 Downstream Situation - **Tire Operating Rate**: As of March 19, the capacity utilization rate of China's semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 79.32%, a week - on - week increase of 0.59 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 0.05 percentage points. The capacity utilization rate of all - steel tire sample enterprises was 72.21%, a week - on - week increase of 0.41 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 3.31 percentage points. Semi - steel tire enterprises are mainly fulfilling foreign trade orders, and the domestic sales supply is tight, so the capacity utilization rate remains at a high level. The capacity utilization rate of all - steel tire enterprises has slightly increased, and the concentrated shipment driven by price - increase news has supported the overall capacity utilization rate [52]. - **Tire Export Volume**: According to customs data, in February 2026, China's tire export volume was 631,500 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 10.49% and a year - on - year increase of 22.34%. The cumulative tire export volume from January to February was 1,336,900 tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 11.57%. Among them, the export volume of passenger car tires was 257,600 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 9.82% and a year - on - year increase of 17.79%. The cumulative export volume of passenger car tires from January to February was 543,200 tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 8.42%. The export volume of truck and bus tires was 344,800 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 10.52% and a year - on - year increase of 23.97%. The cumulative export volume of truck and bus tires from January to February was 730,100 tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 13.07% [55]. - **Domestic Demand (Heavy - Truck Sales)**: According to preliminary data from First Commercial Vehicle Network, in February 2026, China's heavy - truck market sold about 75,000 vehicles (wholesale basis, including exports and new - energy vehicles), a month - on - month decrease of nearly 30% compared with January 2025 and a year - on - year decrease of about 8% compared with 81,400 vehicles in the same period last year. From January to February this year, the cumulative sales volume of China's heavy - truck industry exceeded 180,000 vehicles, a year - on - year increase of about 17%. The year - on - year and month - on - month decline in the heavy - truck industry in February 2026 was mainly due to the seasonal fluctuations during the Spring Festival. First Commercial Vehicle Network preliminarily predicts that the wholesale sales volume of the heavy - truck industry is expected to achieve a slight year - on - year increase in March [58].

Group 1: Report Summary - Strategy suggestion: Due to the uncertainty of the geopolitical conflict between the US and Iran, the short - term price of methanol is expected to fluctuate sharply. It is recommended to wait and see for now [7] - Market review: This week, the port methanol market rose significantly. The price range in Jiangsu was 2790 - 3180 yuan/ton, and in Guangdong was 2800 - 3200 yuan/ton. The inland methanol price also increased substantially. The price range in the main production area of Erdos North Line was 2160 - 2330 yuan/ton, and the receiving price in Dongying was 2505 - 2555 yuan/ton. The inland market was supported by concentrated procurement from some olefin factories and market sentiment, but the downstream was hesitant due to high prices, and the inland increase was less than that of the port market [8] - Market outlook: Recently, the production capacity loss from domestic methanol maintenance and production cuts is less than the output from restored production, so the overall output has increased. This week, inland enterprises reduced inventory. Sample enterprises in Inner Mongolia and northern Shaanxi had good sales, and the long - term contracts were executed smoothly. The downstream was active in purchasing, resulting in an increase in the volume of orders to be delivered and a decrease in inventory. The port inventory continued to decline. Although there were some re - exports at the port recently, the coastal methanol sales were poor, and the delivery volume in some warehouses was low. The number of visible foreign vessels arriving at the port was small. The short - term port methanol inventory will continue to decline. Attention should be paid to the changes in delivery volume and geopolitical situation [8] - MTO industry: The capacity utilization rate of domestic methanol - to - olefin plants increased this week. The restart of Yanchang Yulin Zhongmei Phase II plant and the increase in the load of Tianjin Bohua are expected to lead to a slight increase in the MTO industry's operating rate [8] Group 2: Futures Market - Price trend: This week, the price of the main contract of Zhengzhou methanol futures fluctuated and closed higher, with a weekly increase of 11.66% [13] - Inter - period spread: As of March 20, the MA 5 - 9 spread was 242 [17] - Position analysis: (No specific content provided in the summary requirements) - Warehouse receipts: As of March 19, there were 8709 Zhengzhou methanol warehouse receipts, a decrease of 2804 compared with last week [27] Group 3: Spot Market - Domestic price: As of March 19, the mainstream price in East China's Taicang area was 3145 yuan/ton, an increase of 320 yuan/ton compared with last week; the mainstream price in Northwest Inner Mongolia was 2295 yuan/ton, an increase of 125 yuan/ton compared with last week. The price difference between East China and Northwest was 850 yuan/ton, an increase of 195 yuan/ton compared with last week [32] - Foreign price: As of March 19, the CFR price of methanol at the Chinese main port was 392 US dollars/ton, an increase of 41 US dollars/ton compared with last week. The price difference between Southeast Asia and the Chinese main port was 158 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 1 US dollar/ton compared with last week [38] - Basis: As of March 19, the basis of Zhengzhou methanol was - 37 yuan/ton, a decrease of 57 yuan/ton compared with last week [42] Group 4: Industry Chain Upstream - Coal and gas prices: As of March 18, the market price of Qinhuangdao thermal coal with 5500 kcal was 685 yuan/ton, unchanged from last week. As of March 19, the closing price of NYMEX natural gas was 3.13 US dollars/million British thermal units, a decrease of 0.12 US dollars/million British thermal units compared with last week [45] Industry - Production and capacity utilization: As of March 19, China's methanol production was 2074815 tons, an increase of 53680 tons compared with last week. The capacity utilization rate was 92.87%, a month - on - month increase of 2.65% [48] - Inventory: As of March 18, the inventory of Chinese methanol sample production enterprises was 48.54 tons, a decrease of 3.77 tons compared with the previous period, a month - on - month decrease of 7.21%. The orders to be delivered by sample enterprises were 27.93 tons, an increase of 1.40 tons compared with the previous period, a month - on - month increase of 5.26%. The total port inventory of Chinese methanol was 126.17 tons, a decrease of 5.11 tons compared with the previous data. Both the East China and South China regions reduced inventory [54] - Import: In February 2026, China's methanol imports were 88.47 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 18.38%. From January to February 2026, the cumulative imports of Chinese methanol were 196.86 tons, a year - on - year increase of 22.72%. As of March 19, the methanol import profit was - 128 yuan/ton, a decrease of 125.5 yuan/ton compared with last week [58] Downstream - Operating rate: As of March 19, the capacity utilization rate of domestic methanol - to - olefin plants was 85.57%, a month - on - month increase of 3.08%. The restart of Yanchang Yulin Zhongmei Phase II plant and the increase in the load of Tianjin Bohua led to an increase in the industry's operating rate [61] - Profit: As of March 20, the domestic methanol - to - olefin on - disk profit was - 1177 yuan/ton, a decrease of 565 yuan/ton compared with last week [64]

瑞达期货研究院 「2026.03.20」 棕榈油市场周报 业务咨询 研究员 ： 张昕 添加客服 期货从业资格证号 F03109641 期货投资咨询 从业证书号 Z0018457 关 注 我 们 获 取 更 多 资 讯 联系电话：059586778969 目录 1、周度要点小结 2、期现市场 3、产业情况 4、期权市场 「 周度要点小结」 「 期货市场情况」 大连棕榈油 图1、大连棕榈油期货价格走势图 来源：文华财经 瑞达期货研究院 本周棕榈油主力2605合约下跌，跌幅0.51%。 来源：瑞达期货研究院 3 行情回顾：本周棕榈油主力2605合约下跌，跌幅0.51%。 行情展望：马来西亚南部棕果厂商公会（SPPOMA）数据显示，3月1-15日马来西亚棕榈油产量环 比下降5.28%，其中鲜果串（FFB）单产环比下降2.96%，出油率（OER）环比下降0.44%。根据船运 调查机构ITS公布数据显示，马来西亚3月1-15日棕榈油出口量为926602吨，较2月1-15日出口的 645656吨增加43.5%。3月马棕出口数据强劲，叠加开斋节假期因素导致3月产量增幅有限，预计马 棕库存继续下降，为马棕价格提供底部支撑。 图 ...