Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [7] Core Insights - Due to ongoing conflicts in the Middle East, Gulf countries have had to cut oil production by at least 10 million barrels per day, leading to a potential annual need for approximately 1 billion tons of coal globally to replace oil [1][12] - The price ratio of thermal coal to crude oil is currently at a historical low, making coal a more economically viable alternative to oil and gas [2][13] - The coal industry is expected to benefit significantly from the energy crisis, with a projected increase in coal production of about 300 million tons in China to meet global oil and gas supply gaps [4][30] Summary by Sections 1. Oil Supply Reduction - The reduction of 10 million barrels per day in oil supply corresponds to a need for about 1 billion tons of coal annually, with China needing to increase coal production by approximately 300 million tons [1][12] 2. Economic Viability of Coal - The thermal coal to crude oil price ratio is at 0.35, the lowest since 2019, indicating that coal is becoming a more attractive substitute for oil and gas [2][13] 3. Pathways for Coal Substitution - **Electricity and Heating**: Coal can replace natural gas in power generation, especially when natural gas prices rise, leading to increased coal demand [3][14] - **Coal Chemical Industry**: The profit margin for coal chemical products is improving due to a widening oil-coal price gap, which reached 93.67 yuan/GJ as of March 2026, significantly higher than earlier in the year [3][22] 4. Beneficiaries of the Coal Industry - The coal industry is expected to see increased demand from power generation and chemical sectors, with a focus on companies involved in coal production, coal machinery, coal chemicals, and coal transportation [5][30] 5. Investment Recommendations - Recommended companies include major coal producers like China Shenhua, Shaanxi Coal and Chemical Industry, and coal chemical companies such as Yancoal and Lanhua Sci-Tech, as well as coal transportation firms like Datong Railway [5][30]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report The report analyzes the performance of major asset classes in the week from March 9th to March 13th, 2026, including the equity market, convertible bond market, fixed - income market, and commodity market, and explains the reasons for the market trends [5][10][11]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 This Week's Major Asset Performance - The equity market adjusted. The Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.7%, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.76%, and the ChiNext Index rose 2.51%. The trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets decreased slightly. The Hang Seng Index fell 1.13%, and the Hang Seng Tech Index rose 0.62% [5][10]. - The convertible bond market weakened. The CSI Convertible Bond Index fell 1.1% in a week and 3.38% in a month, and the Shanghai Convertible Bond Index fell 1.52% in a week and 4.02% in a month [5][10]. - The bond market weakened, with short - end adjustment. The 1 - year Treasury bond yield declined by 0.9bp, while the yields of 3 - year, 5 - year, 7 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year Treasury bonds rose [5][10]. - Commodity futures showed mixed performance, with strong performance in crude oil. COMEX gold fell 3.05%, COMEX silver fell 4.78%, LME copper fell 1.04%, LME aluminum rose 0.23%, WTI crude oil rose 8.59%, SHFE rebar rose 1.75%, CBOT soybeans rose 1.83%, and CBOT corn rose 1.36% [5][11]. 3.2 Equity Market Performance - Stocks - The equity market fluctuated downward this week. The Shanghai Composite Index oscillated and recovered at the beginning of the week, continued to rise in the middle of the week, and fell on Friday [13]. - In terms of industries, most industries rose. The construction and coal sectors led the gains, while the national defense and military industry, non - ferrous metals, and petroleum and petrochemical sectors led the losses. The national defense and military industry fell 5.3%, non - ferrous metals fell 5.07%, and petroleum and petrochemicals fell 4.22%. The construction sector rose 7.7%, coal rose 5.85%, and agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery rose 5.43% [13]. - The market rotation was still active. The market style switched again. Affected by the Two Sessions and geopolitical risks, the construction and energy sectors led the gains, the consumer sector adjusted, and the technology - growth sectors such as semiconductors and chips were relatively weak [13]. 3.3 Equity Market Performance - Convertible Bonds - The convertible bond market followed the stock market down this week. As of March 13, 2026, the CSI Convertible Bond Index fell 1.1%, and the Shanghai Convertible Bond Index fell 1.52%. In the past month, the CSI Convertible Bond Index fell 3.38%, and the Shanghai Convertible Bond Index fell 4.02%. The trading volume of convertible bonds decreased, while the trading volume of underlying stocks recovered [17]. - The convertible bond market was weak this week, following the stock market adjustment. Affected by the Iran situation, the decline narrowed compared with last week. Funds switched from sectors with high previous gains such as military, technology, and non - ferrous metals to low - valuation and policy - favored sectors such as construction and coal [17]. 3.4 Fixed - Income Market Performance - Bond yields mostly rose this week, with the 1 - year Treasury bond yield slightly declining. The 1 - year Treasury bond yield declined by 0.9bp, while the yields of 3 - year, 5 - year, 7 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year Treasury bonds rose [21]. - On March 12, the central bank governor emphasized the "moderately loose" monetary policy, and the Ministry of Finance refined the use of 1.3 trillion ultra - long - term special Treasury bonds, alleviating market concerns about long - term interest rate supply. Attention should be paid to the implementation rhythm of fiscal tools and the actual performance of inflation data [21]. - In terms of the capital side, the central bank had net withdrawals this week, mainly due to the continuous withdrawal of cash after the Spring Festival and the high level of bank system liquidity. It is expected that the central bank will maintain reasonable and sufficient liquidity [22]. 3.5 Commodity Market Performance - The Nanhua Commodity Index mostly strengthened this week, with strong performance in energy and chemicals and weak performance in precious metals. The comprehensive index rose 5.18%, energy and chemicals rose 9.76%, metals rose 1.11%, precious metals fell 1.52%, industrial products rose 6.29%, and agricultural products rose 2.72% [32]. - The gold price showed a trend of rising first and then falling. Geopolitical conflicts between the US, Israel, and Iran led to a rise in international oil prices, and many countries released strategic oil reserves. The uncertainty of the US - Iran conflict still exists, and the hedging value of precious metals is still prominent. It is expected that precious metals will maintain high - level volatility in the short term [33][35].

Core Viewpoints - The index is expected to continue in a fluctuating pattern, with the new energy manufacturing sector likely to lead the next phase of mid-cap blue-chip market performance [3][12]. Market Analysis - The ongoing geopolitical tensions, particularly in the Middle East, have limited direct impacts on the domestic market, maintaining a "chaotic external environment but stable internal conditions" scenario. The index is anticipated to face some short-term pullback pressure but is expected to remain within a defined fluctuation range [4][13]. Industry Comparison - Investment opportunities are shifting towards mid-cap blue-chip stocks, particularly in the manufacturing sector. The new energy industry in China, including photovoltaic, wind power, and power transmission, is identified as a core focus area due to its global competitive advantages. Attention is also directed towards machinery and military sectors. While maintaining views on previously recommended cyclical sectors, expectations for upward potential should be moderated as market anticipations become more fully priced [5][14]. Thematic Investment - The concept of energy sovereignty is emerging as a key investment theme. The global urgency for energy sovereignty is transforming into a rigid demand for energy infrastructure, elevating energy construction from an economic cycle issue to a strategic security concern. China's new energy manufacturing is positioned to meet this global security demand, with specific investment opportunities highlighted in photovoltaic, offshore wind, and power transmission sectors. Additionally, resource sovereignty remains a focus, with strategic resource assets being reassessed under the new geopolitical order, emphasizing the importance of pricing power in sectors like rare earths and other critical materials [6][15].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [7] Core Insights - The ongoing conflicts in the Middle East have led Gulf countries to reduce oil production by at least 10 million barrels per day, necessitating an annual increase of approximately 1 billion tons of coal globally to replace oil, with China needing to increase coal production by about 300 million tons [1][12] - The price ratio of thermal coal to crude oil is at a historical low, making coal a more economically viable alternative to oil and gas [2][13] - The coal industry is expected to benefit significantly from the energy crisis, with increased demand for coal in power generation and coal chemical industries as a substitute for natural gas and crude oil [4][30] Summary by Sections 1. Oil Supply Reduction - The reduction of 10 million barrels per day in oil supply corresponds to a need for 1 billion tons of coal annually, with China accounting for 27.9% of global energy consumption, thus requiring an increase of about 300 million tons of coal [1][12] 2. Economic Viability of Coal - The price ratio of thermal coal to crude oil is currently at 0.35, the lowest since 2019, indicating that coal is becoming a more cost-effective alternative as oil prices rise [2][13] 3. Pathways for Coal Substitution - Coal can replace natural gas in electricity and heating, especially in regions where natural gas prices are high, leading to increased coal demand [14] - In the coal chemical sector, the widening oil-coal price gap, currently at 93.67 yuan/GJ, enhances the profitability of coal chemical products [3][22] 4. Beneficiaries of the Coal Industry - The coal industry is expected to see increased production and demand, particularly in regions like Inner Mongolia, Shaanxi, and Xinjiang, which are projected to contribute significantly to the 300 million tons increase in coal production [4][30] 5. Investment Recommendations - Companies to focus on include major coal producers like China Shenhua, Shaanxi Coal and Chemical Industry, and coal chemical companies such as Yancoal and Huadian Energy, as well as coal transportation firms like Datong Railway and Guanghui Logistics [5][30]

Strategy Insights - The report emphasizes the importance of controlling volatility and focusing on new energy sectors while recognizing the resilience of domestic demand [1] - The current geopolitical tensions, particularly in the Middle East, have led to significant uncertainty in global financial markets, impacting trading strategies [3][8] - The report categorizes assets into three types based on their correlation with the worsening Middle East situation: crisis trading, stagflation trading, and normalization trading [8][19] Group 1: Geopolitical Trading Logic - The report identifies three categories of overseas scenario trading assets: crisis trading, stagflation trading, and normalization trading, each with distinct characteristics and implications for investment strategies [8] - Crisis trading assets, such as energy and shipping, are directly affected by supply shocks and are expected to gain risk premiums [8] - Stagflation trading focuses on assets that can withstand supply shocks, such as gold and domestic demand assets, which are expected to show relative stability [8][19] Group 2: Focus on New Energy and Domestic Demand - The report highlights that new energy sectors, including wind, solar, and lithium batteries, are expected to benefit from the current geopolitical landscape and have a strong mid-term outlook [3][41] - Domestic demand-related sectors, such as food and beverage, beauty care, real estate, pharmaceuticals, retail, and banking, are noted for their low volatility, with historical volatility levels below 50% [3][41] - The report anticipates a stabilization and potential recovery in domestic prices, further supporting the outlook for these sectors [3][41] Group 3: Fertilizer and Semiconductor Materials - The report points out that the fertilizer sector, particularly nitrogen, phosphorus, and potassium fertilizers, is facing supply disruptions due to geopolitical tensions, with the Middle East being a critical supplier [23][24] - The report also highlights the potential impact on semiconductor materials, particularly helium, due to supply disruptions from Qatar, which could significantly affect the semiconductor industry [24][25] Group 4: Market Dynamics and Volatility - The report notes that the current market environment is dominated by crisis trading, with significant fluctuations in asset prices driven by geopolitical uncertainties [19][26] - It emphasizes the need to identify low-volatility assets that are less correlated with the ongoing geopolitical tensions, suggesting a focus on sectors with historically lower volatility [26][29] - The report indicates that the market is beginning to shift towards low-volatility sectors, reflecting a heightened demand for certainty amid rising overall market volatility [29]

行 业 研 2026 年 03 月 15 日 中东局势催化油价，煤化工将持续受益 ——行业周报 投资评级：看好（维持） 行业走势图 数据来源：聚源 -24% -12% 0% 12% 24% 36% 2025-03 2025-07 2025-11 煤炭 沪深300 相关研究报告 《中东局势短期难以结束，煤价有望 持续催化—行业点评报告》-2026.3.9 《三月煤矿复产增多，中东局势有望 持续催化煤价—行业周报》-2026.3.1 《印尼进口煤价中枢有望提高，稳煤 价逻辑依旧—行业周报》-2026.2.8 王高展（分析师） 程镱（分析师） wanggaozhan@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790525070003 chengyi@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790525090001 动力煤方面：动力煤价格微跌，截至 3 月 13 日，秦港 Q5500 动力煤平仓价为 729 元/吨，环比下降 14 元/吨，前期已经完成了我们估算的第四目标价格区间，即 800-860 元区间。目前煤价已经恢复至我们预期的煤电盈利均分线 750 元附近， 并保持窄幅波动。我们认为节后主产区动力煤价格出现小幅上涨，站台及煤 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" outlook for the coal industry [6] Core Viewpoints - The trend of destocking in the downstream coal market has ended, and a rebound in coking coal prices is expected due to improved fundamentals and changing market expectations [9] - The coal sector is anticipated to show upward elasticity in response to rising overseas energy prices, particularly in the context of escalating conflicts between the US and Iran [3][50] - Coking coal stocks are recommended for investment, including Huabei Mining (600985), Pingmei Shenma (601666), Shanxi Coking Coal (000983), and Lu'an Environmental Energy (601699), all rated as "Buy" or "Increase" [3][50] Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The coal industry is experiencing a recovery in production and shipping rates, with upstream coal mines returning to normal operational levels post the Spring Festival [9][23] - The demand for coal is currently weak due to seasonal factors, particularly in the power generation and steel sectors [9][23] Price Trends - Coking coal prices have shown a slight decline recently, with the price of low-sulfur coking coal at 1,448 RMB/ton, down 40 RMB/ton [9] - The Newcastle coal futures price surged approximately 9.3% recently, reaching the highest level since November 2024 [9] Supply and Demand Dynamics - The inventory levels at independent coking plants and steel mills have stabilized, indicating the end of destocking trends [9][27] - Port coal inventories have increased, reflecting a seasonal uptick in supply despite weak demand [9][27] Shipping and Transportation - The CBCFI coal freight index has risen, and the daily shipping volume on the Daqin line has returned to high levels, indicating improved logistics in the coal sector [9][43][48] Market Performance - The coal mining index has outperformed both the CSI 300 and ChiNext indices since the beginning of 2026, with a cumulative increase of 26.4% [9][49] - The price-to-book ratio of the coal industry index stands at 1.82, indicating a relative valuation compared to the broader market [9]

Report Title - Overseas Equity (Hong Kong and US Stocks) Weekly Strategy Report [1] Report Date - March 15, 2026 [2] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Views - The market's concerns about the continued Middle East conflict have intensified this week, and the stagflation trading continues. The US stock energy sector has continued to lead the rise, and the US consumer confidence index has declined, while the VIX has risen [3]. - The three major US stock indexes have all fallen this week. It is recommended to maintain a relatively defensive stance (military/energy) in the short term and wait for the situation to become clearer before buying at low prices [6]. - The market logic has shifted from simple risk - aversion to stagflation. Different scenarios of the "US - Iran conflict" have different impacts on the equity market, and corresponding investment strategies are proposed [9]. - In the short term, maintain a defensive stance in the US stock market and pay attention to the Fed's interest - rate meeting and the GTC conference next week. In the long - term, US stock investment returns to fundamental endogenous factors, and hardware + HALO assets are favored [12]. - Geopolitical factors have continued to disrupt the market this week, and funds have favored defensive allocations in the Chinese - funded stock market. The overall Chinese - funded stock market is still in a state of shock and consolidation, and the chemical and coal sectors are relatively strong [13][14]. - A - shares have relatively stronger HALO attributes. In the short term, maintain a defensive stance, and in the medium - term, A - shares are better than Hong Kong stocks [16][18]. Summary by Related Catalogs US Stocks - **Market Performance**: This week, the US stock energy sector led the rise. The three major US stock indexes fell due to concerns about the Middle East conflict and AI - related trading. The US consumer confidence index declined, and the VIX rose [3][6]. - **Scenario Analysis of "US - Iran Conflict"**: - **Scenario 1: Quick Resolution**: In the short term, the growth style will have stronger elasticity. In the medium - term, the market will return to the fundamental trading logic [9]. - **Scenario 2: Prolonged Consumption**: In the short term, stagflation trading will be repeatedly contested, and the global equity market will experience high - volatility shocks. Energy, oil transportation, and coal - chemical industries have hedging properties. In the medium - term, strategies can be long - term in concept but short - term in operation [9]. - **Scenario 3: Comprehensive Regional War**: The traditional energy sector may benefit in the short term, but the equity market as a whole will face systemic downward risks [9]. - **Investment Strategy**: - **Short - term**: Maintain a defensive stance (military/energy), reduce the overall risk preference of the portfolio, and pay attention to the Fed's interest - rate meeting and the GTC conference next week [12]. - **Long - term**: Focus on hardware + HALO assets, including offensive HALO assets (AI - related physical assets) and defensive HALO assets (traditional physical assets relatively far from AI) [12]. Chinese - Funded Stocks - **Market Performance**: This week, the A - share and Hong Kong stock markets fell overall, and defensive sectors led the rise [13]. - **Investment Strategy**: - **Short - term**: Maintain a relatively defensive stance (energy, coal - chemical, and dividend stocks) and wait for the situation to become clearer before buying at low prices [18]. - **Medium - term**: HALO assets are mainly concentrated in A - shares. Although Hong Kong stocks have valuation advantages, their fundamental reversal requires the resolution of some issues [18].

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Positive" [1] Core Insights - The coal sector has shown a significant increase, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 5.23 percentage points, with a weekly increase of 5.42% as of March 13, 2026 [2] - The report indicates a coal energy gap of approximately 1 billion tons of raw coal, suggesting potential for both volume and price increases in the coal market [1][6] - Key coal mining enterprises reported an average daily coal sales of 7.58 million tons, a week-on-week increase of 4.2%, while the total coal inventory reached 25.02 million tons, reflecting a 2% increase week-on-week but a 30.6% decrease year-on-year [2][7] Supply Side Summary - Daily coal production from monitored enterprises was 7.65 million tons, up 3.4% week-on-week and 1.2% year-on-year [2] - The total coal inventory (including port storage) was 25.02 million tons, with a week-on-week increase of 2% and a year-on-year decrease of 30.6% [2][7] - The report highlights that the cumulative coal sales for the year reached 50.253 million tons, a 5.6% increase year-on-year [2][30] Demand Side Summary - The report notes that coal consumption in the power and chemical industries has increased by 1.1% and 9% year-on-year, respectively [2][30] - The iron and steel production has also seen a slight increase of 0.4% year-on-year [2] Price Summary - The price of thermal coal (Q5500K) remained stable at 689 CNY/ton, while the price of imported thermal coal was 977 CNY/ton [3] - The report indicates fluctuations in coal prices at various ports, with some showing increases while others decreased [3][4] - Coking coal prices at major ports remained stable, with slight variations in specific regions [4] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on high-dividend thermal coal companies, coal chemical companies, and flexible coking coal companies, with specific companies highlighted for investment [6][32] - Companies to watch include China Shenhua, Shaanxi Coal and Chemical Industry, and Yanzhou Coal Mining Company among others [6][32]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current convertible bond market risk preference tends to converge, and the overall valuation is at a high level. Portfolio operations should prioritize defense. Implement a style re - balance from growth to value within the dumbbell - type allocation framework, and adopt a trading strategy centered on long - volatility [1]. - The convertible bond market showed an oscillating downward trend last week. The core driving factor was the decline in the market's risk preference due to increased external uncertainties, which suppressed the valuation and price performance of convertible bonds. The dumbbell strategy may be advantageous in the short - term, and the style within the portfolio should be re - balanced [2][11]. - Most styles in the convertible bond market were under pressure last week. Strong - momentum varieties were cashed out, and many style factors became ineffective. Investors should focus on defense and avoid high - risk, high - deviation varieties [3][14]. - In the future, a trading strategy centered on long - volatility is recommended. The dumbbell strategy framework can be maintained, but the style should be re - balanced by reducing the growth - style positions and increasing value - type varieties. Industries with relatively low valuations such as coal, steel, and chemical can be considered for layout [4][19]. 3. Summary According to the Catalog 1. Convertible Bond Weekly Thinking - Last week (from March 9th to March 13th, 2026), the convertible bond market showed an oscillating downward trend. The decline in the overall market's risk preference due to external uncertainties suppressed the valuation and price of convertible bonds. The dumbbell strategy may be advantageous in the short - term, and the style within the portfolio should be re - balanced from the previous high - growth direction to the value style [11]. - The convertible bond market was comprehensively adjusted last week, with a significant contraction in risk preference. Most styles were under pressure, and strong - momentum varieties were cashed out, causing many style factors to become ineffective. Investors should focus on defense and transfer to hedging targets with better valuation protection or independent fundamental support [14]. - In the short - term, the growth style is in an unfavorable environment. The dumbbell strategy should prioritize defense in the short - term, focusing on the value style, and adhere to the growth direction in the long - term [16]. - In the future, a trading strategy centered on long - volatility is recommended. The dumbbell strategy framework can be maintained, but the style should be re - balanced by reducing the growth - style positions and increasing value - type varieties. Industries with relatively low valuations such as coal, steel, and chemical can be considered for layout [19]. 2. Convertible Bond Market Conditions 2.1 Convertible Bond Market Conditions - Not provided in the given content 2.2 Convertible Bond Individual Securities - Not provided in the given content 2.3 Convertible Bond Valuation - Not provided in the given content 2.4 Convertible Bond Price - Not provided in the given content