Market Overview - The stock market exhibited a volatile and differentiated pattern on July 28, with major indices showing mixed results. The cyclical sector, which performed strongly last week, experienced a pullback, while the technology and pharmaceutical sectors acted as a "dual engine" for growth [1][2]. A-Share Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index opened higher but experienced a decline, closing down 0.17% at 3587.69 points. The Shenzhen Component Index fell by 0.16%, while the ChiNext Index rose by 0.1%, indicating resilience in growth sectors. The STAR 50 and Northbound 50 indices dropped by 0.27% and 0.38%, respectively, highlighting significant structural characteristics in the market. The total trading volume reached 1.14 trillion yuan, maintaining a high level of market activity [1]. Sector Performance in A-Shares - The technology and pharmaceutical sectors formed a "dual engine" for growth, with the PCB concept surging due to technological breakthroughs and AI hardware demand. New materials like PEEK also saw gains, driven by innovations from Shanghai's AI laboratory and Tesla's robotics progress. The defense and military sector rose by 1.07%, reflecting investor interest in policy-sensitive themes. The pharmaceutical sector showed multiple points of growth, with leading innovative drug companies benefiting from major collaborations, while antibiotic stocks also gained, indicating improvements in the industry fundamentals and policy support [2]. Hong Kong Market Performance - The Hong Kong market mirrored the A-share market's sectoral differentiation. The financial index rose by 1.14%, with the Hang Seng Insurance Index leading with a 2.17% increase, reflecting a preference for undervalued financial assets. The pharmaceutical and biotechnology sector surged by 3.14%, with the Hang Seng Shanghai-Shenzhen-Hong Kong Innovative Drug 50 Index rising by 1.85%, highlighting investor focus on pharmaceutical R&D breakthroughs and policy benefits [3]. Overall Market Sentiment - The current market is characterized by "high-level fluctuations and structural rotation," with continued inflow of incremental capital suggesting limited adjustment space. The driving logic includes clear messages from patent releases, conference catalysts, and order benefits. Following a cooling in cyclical stocks due to policy adjustments, capital has accelerated into technology growth sectors, with sustained activity in innovative drugs and financial stocks reflecting a consensus on policy support and fundamental improvements [3]. Strategic Insights - Short-term operations should focus on capital movements, paying attention to active trading and policy-driven opportunities in financial and pharmaceutical sectors. In the medium term, the focus should be on long-term benefits from industrial transformations, particularly in the broad technology field (AI computing power, robotics, digital economy), new consumption sectors (AI hardware, segmented consumption upgrades), and non-ferrous metals benefiting from domestic substitution, demand recovery, and "anti-involution" policies [4].

Report Title - The report is titled "Black Metal Weekly Report" and is from the Black Metal Research Center of Guomao Futures, dated July 28, 2025 [1] Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the report Core Views - The market sentiment has cooled down, and short - term volatility has increased. After the exchange restricted position - opening, the far - month coking coal contracts hit the daily limit after consecutive limit - up boards. Iron ore showed strong resistance to decline after the coking coal position - opening restriction. Different sub - sectors in the black metal industry have different supply - demand situations and investment outlooks [4] Summary by Directory 1. Steel - **Supply**: Neutral. Pig iron production decreased slightly within market expectations. Near September, production restrictions may occur due to important events. Short - process production may fluctuate in some areas during the peak power season, but it won't significantly impact the total output. Recently, the price of scrap steel has lagged behind, and some electric furnaces may increase their operating rates [6] - **Demand**: Neutral. After the price rebound, the trading volume improved, and the "buy on rising" mentality supported the demand. The spot market's liquidity is still locked. The large fluctuations in coking coal and coke may drive the trading in the black metal sector [6] - **Inventory**: Bullish. The total inventory level is low, and the inventory accumulation during the off - season is not significant, which may trigger unexpected restocking [6] - **Basis/Spread**: Bearish. The basis decreased slightly this week. The rb2510 basis in the East China region (Hangzhou) was 44 on Friday, down 20 from the previous week [6] - **Profit**: Bearish. Long - process steel mills still have profits, while short - process production profits are unstable, and the reduction in production has increased slightly [6] - **Valuation**: Neutral. The production links in the industry chain have meager profits, with relatively low relative valuation and moderately high absolute valuation [6] - **Macro and Policy**: Bullish. The market is waiting for the Politburo meeting in July to set the direction. The "anti - involution" in the industry has digested some optimistic expectations [6] - **Investment View**: Hold. Pay attention to the Politburo meeting's guidance on policies in the second half of the year. The data shows the resilience of steel products, but the large fluctuations in coking coal and coke may drive the black metal sector. Consider taking profit on positive cash - and - carry positions [6] - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral: Hold; Arbitrage: None; Cash - and - carry: Take profit on rolling positions [6] 2. Coking Coal and Coke - **Demand**: Bullish. The five major steel products have not shown obvious inventory accumulation during the off - season. The daily average pig iron production of 247 steel mills remained at a high level, and the steel mill profitability rate increased, indicating high demand for furnace materials [48] - **Coking Coal Supply**: Bullish. Domestic over - production inspections have lowered the supply expectation. The port clearance has reached a high level, and the import window for overseas coal has opened [48] - **Coke Supply**: Neutral. Coke production has rebounded from a low level, but the coking profit has decreased, and the cost of raw coal has increased, leading to faster price increases [48] - **Inventory**: Bullish. Downstream replenishment demand has been released, and the overall inventory of coking coal and coke has shifted downstream. The total inventory has continued to decline significantly [48] - **Basis/Spread**: Bearish. The basis cost of coke and coking coal has increased, and the import window for overseas coal has opened [48] - **Profit**: Neutral. Steel mills have a high profitability rate, while coking profits are negative and the cost of raw coal has risen rapidly [48] - **Summary**: Neutral. The off - season data of the black metal industry is still good, but the previous rapid rise in futures prices may have over - anticipated the market. After the exchange restricted position - opening, the market may decline further. It is recommended to wait and take profit on previous cash - and - carry positions [48] - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral: Take profit on previous cash - and - carry positions; Arbitrage: Hold [48] 3. Iron Ore - **Supply**: Bullish. The shipping volume will seasonally increase in the following weeks, but the typhoon weather has affected the arrival and unloading rhythm. The arrival volume will decline later, and the supply pressure is not significant based on the current pig iron demand [94] - **Demand**: Neutral. The pig iron production of steel mills decreased slightly this week due to a temporary blast furnace maintenance. The steel mill profitability rate reached a new high this year, and the port inventory increased slightly [94] - **Inventory**: Neutral. Although the arrival volume usually increases in July and August, it is difficult to enter a large - scale inventory accumulation stage in the short term with high pig iron production [94] - **Profit**: Neutral. Steel mills' profits are still high, so pig iron production can remain at a high level in the short term [94] - **Valuation**: Neutral. With high pig iron production, the short - term valuation is relatively neutral [94] - **Summary**: Neutral. Pig iron production remained at a high level with small fluctuations. Iron ore showed strong resistance to decline after the coking coal position - opening restriction. The port inventory accumulation is small, and there is still room for the port inventory to decline in the short term. It is not recommended to short the black metal market in the short term [94] - **Investment View**: Consolidation - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral: Buy on dips; Arbitrage: Hold [94]

上天天基金APP搜索【777】注册即可 领500元券包，优选基金10元起投！限量发放！先到先得！ 中信证券：市场已演绎出典型水牛特征 市场近期已经演绎出比较典型的水牛特征。 最初观察到的是比较广泛和普遍的机构资金净流入，随着市场赚 钱效应开始积累，散户的流入也在加速，并且行情热度升温、"反内卷"叙事逻辑加强，一些保守型资金可能也 在被动调仓。历史复盘显示，2010年以来，基本面和流动性背离的水牛，持续时间通常不超过4个月，本轮水 牛行情能否演化为持续时间更久的全面牛市需要观察后续基本面（即使是结构性的）好转情况。 本轮"反内卷"行情中，简单复制2021年博弈上游涨价的持续性可能有限，但市场还存在一些估值尚处低位且关 注度不高的周期制造类品种。2025世界人工智能大会有望给多个细分领域带来催化，同时随着科创板"1+6"政 策、金融支持科创相关政策的持续推进，自今年4月以来明显滞涨的科创板有望迎来补涨行情。突破3600点 后，当前策略应对思路建议增配恒科、增配科创，同时行业层面继续围绕有色、通信、创新药、军工、游戏轮 动。 华泰证券：依然看好港股市场机会 全球流动性宽松意味着大量资金有增配诉求，外溢至中国尤其是离 ...

狂欢过后，大宗商品市场热度"熄火"。 7月28日早盘，国内期货市场商品多数"飘绿"，此前涨幅居前的焦煤、焦炭、玻璃、纯碱等悉数大跌。 主力合约中，双焦领跌。 截至上午收盘，焦煤跌超10%，焦炭跌幅达7.44%，此外主力合约中碳酸锂跌 7.98%，玻璃跌7.74%，纯碱也跌超7%。 | 名称 | 现价 | 涨跌幅 - | | --- | --- | --- | | 焦煤2509 | 1110.5 | -10.19% | | 碳酸锂2509 | 73120 | -7.98% | | 玻璃2509 | 1240 | -7.74% | | 焦炭2509 | 1618.0 | -7.44% | | 纯碱2509 | 1330 | -7.06% | | 多晶硅2509 | 48865 | -6.87% | | 工业硅2509 | 9025 | -6.86% | 大宗商品跌势拉动下，A股市场煤炭、钢铁等板块也大幅下行。Wind煤炭指数早盘大跌2.79%，中山西 焦煤跌超6%，郑州煤电、安源煤业跌幅也均达5.93%。 受供给侧收缩预期发酵影响，上周焦煤录得超40%涨幅，焦炭也在成本端预期拉动下涨超20%。 消息面上，7月22 ...

Market Overview - The Hang Seng Index (HSI) opened up 70 points and peaked at nearly 300 points before retracting gains, closing up 0.40% at 25,490.45 points [1] - The Hang Seng Tech Index fell by 0.59%, closing at 5,644.52 points [1] - Total market turnover reached HKD 149.725 billion [1] Sector Performance - The financial sector, including Chinese securities firms and insurance companies, showed strong performance [1] - Innovative drug concepts also performed well, contributing to the overall market gains [1] - Conversely, sectors such as coal and non-ferrous metals experienced declines [1] Notable Stocks - China Tobacco Hong Kong (06055.HK) surged by 13.78% after reaching an agreement with China Tobacco International to maintain its position in the domestic duty-free cigarette business [1] - China Ping An (02318.HK) increased by 3.21% [1] - Hengrui Medicine (01276.HK) rose by 15.43% [1] - China Shenhua (01088.HK) saw a decline of 1.85% [1]

Market Overview - The Hang Seng Index (HSI) closed up 0.40% at 25,490.45 points, while the Tech Index (KSI) fell 0.59% to 5,644.52 points [1] - The total market turnover reached HKD 149.725 billion [1] Sector Performance - Major financial sectors, including Chinese brokerage firms and insurance, saw significant gains, while coal and non-ferrous metals sectors experienced declines [1] Notable Stocks - China Tobacco Hong Kong rose by 13.78% after reaching an agreement with China National Tobacco on maintaining its duty-free cigarette business in mainland China [1] - Ping An Insurance (601318) increased by 3.21% [1] - Hengrui Medicine (600276) surged by 15.43% [1] - China Shenhua Energy (601088) decreased by 1.85% [1]

Market Overview - The FTSE China A50 Index showed mixed performance among bank stocks, while oil, coal, and electric power stocks declined [1][6] Banking Sector - Everbright Bank had a market capitalization of 242.84 billion with a trading volume of 0.38 billion, closing at 4.11, up by 0.03 (0.74%) [3] Insurance Sector - China Life Insurance had a market capitalization of 382.10 billion, with a trading volume of 1.46 billion, closing at 59.62, up by 1.12 (2.99%) [3] - China Pacific Insurance had a market capitalization of 371.44 billion, with a trading volume of 1.02 billion, closing at 38.61, up by 1.54 (2.65%) [3] - Ping An Insurance had a market capitalization of 1,085.69 billion, with a trading volume of 5.02 billion, closing at 8.64, up by 0.17 (2.01%) [3] Alcohol Industry - Kweichow Moutai had a market capitalization of 1,806.43 billion, with a trading volume of 3.41 billion, closing at 122.78, down by 16.99 (-1.17%) [3] - Shanxi Fenjiu had a market capitalization of 221.85 billion, with a trading volume of 1.14 billion, closing at 1438.01, down by 3.73 (-2.01%) [3] - Wuliangye had a market capitalization of 476.58 billion, with a trading volume of 1.31 billion, closing at 181.85, down by 0.76 (-0.62%) [3] Technology Sector - Haiguang Information had a market capitalization of 246.59 billion, with a trading volume of 1.20 billion, closing at 341.73, down by 0.23 (-0.07%) [3] - Northern Huachuang had a market capitalization of 282.22 billion, with a trading volume of 4.45 billion, closing at 674.60, up by 1.30 (0.19%) [3] - Cambricon Technologies had a market capitalization of 32.38 billion, with a trading volume of 1.79 billion, closing at 139.31, down by 2.18 (-1.54%) [3] Energy Sector - Sinopec had a market capitalization of 269.58 billion, with a trading volume of 5.34 billion, closing at 5.88, down by 0.11 (-1.27%) [3] - PetroChina had a market capitalization of 1,566.66 billion, with a trading volume of 8.05 billion, closing at 8.56, down by 0.06 (-1.08%) [3] Automotive Sector - BYD had a market capitalization of 1,846.26 billion, with a trading volume of 5.87 billion, closing at 37.78, down by 0.47 (-2.26%) [3] Securities Sector - CITIC Securities had a market capitalization of 363.53 billion, with a trading volume of 32.66 billion, closing at 29.86, up by 0.41 (2.03%) [4] Consumer Electronics - Luxshare Precision had a market capitalization of 272.89 billion, with a trading volume of 23.13 billion, closing at 28.83, up by 0.17 (0.59%) [4] Home Appliances - Gree Electric had a market capitalization of 228.16 billion, with a trading volume of 10.44 billion, closing at 25.72, down by 0.09 (-0.19%) [4] Pharmaceutical Sector - Heng Rui Medicine had a market capitalization of 404.93 billion, with a trading volume of 4.53 billion, closing at 48.52, up by 4.61 (8.17%) [4]

Market Overview - The core viewpoint emphasizes that stocks are favored over bonds, with a weak outlook for gold and the US dollar. Investors are advised to focus on changes in equity structure and style, suggesting a strategy of "one body, two wings" [1] - The main focus is on cyclical stocks, which have outperformed technology stocks recently, with the Shanghai Composite Index reaching new highs around the 3600-point mark [1] Cyclical Sector Dynamics - The cyclical sector is driven by policies such as supply contraction and infrastructure projects, indicating a clear revival in this area [2] - The performance of large-cap stocks above 3600 points has created a positive wealth effect, with hopes for a sustained rally in cyclical stocks to surpass previous highs [2] Profitability Insights - In the first half of 2025, the total profit of industrial enterprises above designated size was 34,365 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 1.8%. State-owned enterprises saw a profit drop of 7.6%, while private enterprises experienced a slight increase of 1.7% [2] - Despite a decline in overall industrial profits, certain sectors like manufacturing are showing improvement, with specific industries maintaining good growth [3] Coal Industry Analysis - The coal industry has faced long-term challenges, including competition from renewable energy and overcapacity issues. The cumulative profit for the coal sector in the first half of 2025 was down 53% [4] - The profitability of coal mining is closely linked to market conditions, and while there may be short-term rebounds, the long-term outlook remains uncertain due to fundamental changes in demand and production technology [4] Investment Strategy - The strategy suggests that while cyclical opportunities may be diminishing, localized opportunities exist, particularly in sectors like construction materials due to disaster recovery efforts [6] - Investors are encouraged to adopt a holistic view that integrates cyclical and technological investments, emphasizing the importance of strategic foresight in navigating market fluctuations [6][7]

A股三大指数冲高回落，截至午盘，沪指跌0.17%，深成指跌0.16%，创业板指涨0.10%，北证50指数跌0.38%，沪深京三市半日成交 额11387亿元，较上日放量146亿元。全市场超3000只个股下跌。 板块题材上，PCB、影视院线、PEEK材料板块走高，煤炭、钢铁板块调整。 盘面上，PCB板块全线走高，方邦股份20CM涨停，胜宏科技（300476）涨超11%，兴森科技（002436）、骏亚科技（603386）涨停 封板。影视院线板块走强，幸福蓝海（300528）20CM一字封板，中国电影（600977）涨停封板。PEEK材料板块走高，中欣氟材 （002915）涨停封板，明阳科技、超捷股份（301005）涨超14%。煤炭板块调整，郑州煤电（600121）、山西焦煤（000983）跌超 5%。钢铁板块低位震荡，柳钢股份（601003）跌超8%。 涨停天梯榜： 【6连板】 西藏旅游（600749）。 【4连板】 拓山重工（001226）。 今日市场炒什么： 【人工智能】 相关个股：尔康制药、*ST天喻、*ST汇科 消息面：上海阶跃星辰智能科技有限公司在2025世界人工智能大会上发布了新一代基础大模型Step ...

Market Overview - The market experienced a mixed performance with the Shanghai Composite Index down by 0.17% and the Shenzhen Component Index down by 0.15%, while the ChiNext Index saw a slight increase of 0.10% [1][2] - The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets reached 1.12 trillion, an increase of 175 billion compared to the previous trading day [1] Sector Performance - Cyclical stocks, including steel and coal, underwent a collective adjustment, with companies like Liugang Co., Ltd. seeing declines of over 5% [1] - In contrast, sectors such as computing hardware, insurance, and film performed well, with companies like Xinhua Insurance reaching historical highs [1] - The PEEK materials, PCB concept, film, and insurance sectors showed significant gains, while coal, steel, Hainan Free Trade Zone, and AI sectors faced notable declines [1] Individual Stock Highlights - Shenghong Technology achieved a new historical high in the computing hardware sector [1] - Happiness Blue Ocean saw a 20% limit-up in the film sector [1] Trading Statistics - The limit-up rate was recorded at 69%, with 40 stocks hitting the limit and 18 stocks touching the limit-down [5] - The high opening rate was 46%, with a profit rate of 50% [5]