Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views Copper - After the 232 investigation is finalized, the non-US region's electrolytic copper market shows a pattern of "loosening supply expectations and weak actual demand", and the spot contradictions are gradually resolved. The next stage may return to macro trading, and the negotiation of reciprocal tariffs between China and the US will also disrupt copper prices. The main focus is on the support level of 78,000 [1]. Aluminum - The price of alumina is expected to fluctuate widely in the range of 2,950 - 3,250 this week. It is necessary to be vigilant against the risk of a squeeze caused by policy changes in Guinea and the reduction of warehouse receipts. The aluminum price is currently at a high level but is expected to face short - term pressure due to inventory accumulation expectations, weak demand, and macro disturbances. The reference price range for the main contract this week is 19,950 - 20,750 [4]. Aluminum Alloy - The aluminum alloy market is expected to be weak and fluctuate mainly, with the main reference range of 19,400 - 20,200. The market is in a situation of weak supply and demand, with more prominent demand - side contradictions [5]. Zinc - In the medium - to - long term, zinc is still in a cycle of loose supply. If the growth rate of the ore end is lower than expected and downstream consumption performs better than expected, zinc prices may maintain a high - level shock pattern; otherwise, the zinc price center may move down. The main reference range is 21,500 - 23,000 [7]. Nickel - In the short term, the nickel market is expected to adjust within a range, with the main reference range of 118,000 - 126,000. The cost support for refined nickel has weakened, and the medium - term supply is expected to remain loose [9]. Tin - The supply of tin ore remains tight, and the demand is expected to be weak. It is recommended to continue holding short positions established at previous high levels [12]. Stainless Steel - The short - term stainless steel market will mainly fluctuate, with the main operating range of 12,500 - 13,000. The overall supply may decrease, but the demand is weak and the inventory reduction is slow [15]. Lithium Carbonate - In the short term, the lithium carbonate market is expected to remain strong in a certain range, with the main reference range of 63,000 - 70,000. However, there is still downward pressure in the medium term. The focus is on the upstream operation actions [19]. Summary by Directory Copper - **Price and Basis**: SMM 1 electrolytic copper price is 78,020 yuan/ton, down 0.05% from the previous day. The LME 0 - 3 is - 64.49 dollars/ton, down 16.22 dollars/ton from the previous day. The import profit and loss is - 2 yuan/ton, an increase of 219.72 yuan/ton from the previous day [1]. - **Fundamental Data**: In June, the electrolytic copper production was 1.1349 million tons, a decrease of 0.30% from the previous month. In May, the import volume was 253,100 tons, an increase of 1.23% from the previous month [1]. Aluminum - **Price and Spread**: SMM A00 aluminum price is 20,570 yuan/ton, up 0.24% from the previous day. The import profit and loss is - 1,286 yuan/ton, an increase of 120.1 yuan/ton from the previous day [4]. - **Fundamental Data**: In June, the alumina production was 7.2581 million tons, a decrease of 0.19% from the previous month. The electrolytic aluminum production was 3.609 million tons, a decrease of 3.22% from the previous month [4]. Aluminum Alloy - **Price and Spread**: SMM Southwest ADC12 price is 20,100 yuan/ton, up 0.50% from the previous day. The 2511 - 2512 monthly spread is 95 yuan/ton, an increase of 25 yuan/ton from the previous day [5]. - **Fundamental Data**: In June, the regenerated aluminum alloy ingot production was 615,000 tons, an increase of 1.49% from the previous month. The primary aluminum alloy ingot production was 255,000 tons, a decrease of 2.30% from the previous month [5]. Zinc - **Price and Spread**: SMM 0 zinc ingot price is 22,110 yuan/ton, up 0.27% from the previous day. The 2508 - 2509 monthly spread is 10 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5 yuan/ton from the previous day [7]. - **Fundamental Data**: In June, the refined zinc production was 585,100 tons, an increase of 6.50% from the previous month. In May, the import volume was 26,700 tons, a decrease of 5.36% from the previous month [7]. Nickel - **Price and Basis**: SMM 1 electrolytic nickel price is 120,450 yuan/ton, down 1.35% from the previous day. The 8 - 12% high - nickel pig iron price (ex - factory price) is 900 yuan/nickel point, unchanged from the previous day [9]. - **Fundamental Data**: China's refined nickel production in the current period is 31,800 tons, a decrease of 10.04% from the previous month. The import volume is 19,157 tons, an increase of 116.90% from the previous month [9]. Tin - **Spot Price and Basis**: SMM 1 tin price is 261,900 yuan/ton, down 0.64% from the previous day. The LME 0 - 3 spread is - 108 dollars/ton, an increase of 7 dollars/ton from the previous day [12]. - **Fundamental Data**: In May, the tin ore import volume was 13,449 tons, an increase of 36.39% from the previous month. The SMM refined tin production was 14,840 tons, a decrease of 2.37% from the previous month [12]. Stainless Steel - **Price and Basis**: The price of 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 coil) is 12,750 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. The spot - futures spread is 190 yuan/ton, a decrease of 24.00% from the previous day [15]. - **Fundamental Data**: The production of 300 - series stainless steel crude steel in China (43 companies) in the current period is 1.7133 million tons, a decrease of 3.83% from the previous month. The import volume is 125,100 tons, a decrease of 12.00% from the previous month [15]. Lithium Carbonate - **Price and Basis**: SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate average price is 64,950 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. The basis (based on SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate) is - 3,110 yuan/ton, a decrease of 88.48% from the previous day [19]. - **Fundamental Data**: In June, the lithium carbonate production was 78,090 tons, an increase of 8.34% from the previous month. The demand was 83,815 tons, a decrease of 0.15% from the previous month [19].

Core Viewpoint - The report provides an overview of the performance and management of the Penghua CSI A-Share Resource Industry Index Fund (LOF) for the second quarter of 2025, highlighting its investment strategy, financial performance, and compliance with regulations [1][11]. Fund Overview - Fund Name: Penghua CSI A-Share Resource Industry Index Fund (LOF) - Fund Manager: Penghua Fund Management Co., Ltd. - Fund Custodian: Industrial and Commercial Bank of China Ltd. - Total Fund Shares at Period End: 78,295,427.39 shares [2]. - Investment Objective: To closely track the benchmark index with a daily tracking deviation of less than 0.35% and an annual tracking error of less than 4% [2]. Investment Strategy - The fund employs a passive index investment approach, constructing an investment portfolio based on the benchmark weights of constituent stocks [3]. - The fund aims to invest at least 90% of its net assets in the constituent stocks of the benchmark index and maintain at least 5% in cash or government bonds with a maturity of less than one year [3][4]. Performance Metrics - The fund's A-share class net value growth rate for the reporting period was 2.43%, while the benchmark growth rate was 0.97% [12]. - The fund's C-share class net value growth rate was 2.40%, also against a benchmark growth rate of 0.97% [12]. Financial Indicators - The report indicates that the fund's performance was influenced by various factors, including market conditions and macroeconomic changes, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 3.26% during the period [11]. - The fund's average tracking deviation and tracking error were well controlled, achieving the operational goals set by the fund management [11]. Portfolio Composition - As of the end of the reporting period, the fund's total assets were primarily allocated to stocks, with a significant portion in the mining industry [13]. - The fund's investment strategy includes adjustments based on changes in the benchmark index and liquidity analysis of constituent stocks [4][5]. Management Report - The fund manager, Yan Dong, has 15 years of experience in the securities industry and has been managing this fund since November 2019 [8]. - The fund management adheres to strict compliance with regulations and fair trading practices, ensuring that all investment decisions are made in the best interest of the fund holders [10][11].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No investment ratings for the entire industry are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The rumor of Powell's dismissal caused market turmoil, with the stock market initially falling and then rising, the dollar and bond yields dropping, and gold prices rising. Trump denied the rumor but hinted that dismissal could be possible under justifiable reasons [8][23]. - The market is paying attention to various commodities. For example, polysilicon may see its futures price hit new highs due to policy expectations, while styrene remains a short - allocation target. Natural rubber can be considered for long positions on dips due to weather disturbances, and cotton futures are technically strong but face some upward - limiting factors [9][11][12][14]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Metals 3.1.1 Precious Metals - Gold is expected to oscillate upwards, and silver to break through and rise. The trend intensities for gold and silver are both 1. The rumor of Powell's dismissal led to a rise in gold prices [17][23][25]. 3.1.2 Base Metals - **Copper**: The market is cautious, and prices are oscillating. The trend intensity is 0. Macro events include the Powell dismissal rumor, and micro events involve mining investments and import data [17][27][29]. - **Zinc**: It is under pressure. The trend intensity is - 1. Trump's tariff plans and the EU's potential response are the main news [17][30][31]. - **Lead**: There may be a limit to its downside. The trend intensity is 0. Trump's tariff plans and the EU's response are the key news [17][33][34]. - **Tin**: The price is weakening. The trend intensity is - 1. The market is affected by macro events such as the Powell dismissal rumor and Trump's tariff plans [17][36][39]. - **Aluminum**: It faces upward pressure. Alumina requires attention on the impact of the ore end, and cast aluminum alloy oscillates within a range. The trend intensities for aluminum, alumina, and cast aluminum alloy are 0, - 1, and 0 respectively [17][40][41]. - **Nickel**: News affects market sentiment, and the fundamentals are under pressure. Stainless steel prices oscillate due to the game between reality and the macro situation. The trend intensities for both are 0. There are news about nickel supply and production in Canada, Indonesia, etc. [17][42][46]. 3.2 Energy and Chemicals 3.2.1 Lithium - For lithium carbonate, the warehouse receipts continue to decline, and attention should be paid to substantial changes in supply. The trend intensity is 1. The price of battery - grade lithium carbonate has increased, and the new energy vehicle market shows certain trends [17][47][50]. 3.2.2 Silicon - related - Industrial silicon: Market sentiment is fermenting, and attention should be paid to the upward space. Polysilicon: Market news continues to ferment. The trend intensities for both are 1. The US has launched a national security investigation on polysilicon imports [17][51][53]. 3.2.3 Ferrous Metals - **Iron Ore**: Supported by macro expectations, it oscillates strongly. The trend intensity is 0. The Central Urban Work Conference is an important macro event [17][54]. - **Steel Products (Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil)**: Both oscillate in a wide range. The trend intensities for both are 0. There are data on steel production, exports, and inventory [17][56][60]. - **Silicon - based Alloys (Silicon Ferrosilicon and Manganese Ferrosilicon)**: Both oscillate in a wide range. The trend intensities for both are 0. There are price and production - related news [17][61][64]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: Both oscillate in a wide range. The trend intensities for both are 0. There are price, inventory, and position - related data [17][65][67]. 3.2.4 Energy - **Thermal Coal**: The daily consumption is recovering, and prices are stabilizing with oscillations. The trend intensity is 0. There are price and position - related data [17][69][72]. 3.3 Agricultural Products - **Cotton**: The futures price has reached a new high for the year. It is technically strong in the short term, but factors such as poor downstream profits and new cotton harvest expectations may limit the upward movement. The trend intensity is not explicitly stated [14][17][20]. - **Natural Rubber**: Due to weather disturbances, it is recommended to try long positions on dips. The supply in Thailand is affected by rain, and the domestic production areas are also affected by weather to some extent [12][13].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Viewpoints The report provides trend forecasts for various commodities in the futures market, including precious metals, base metals, energy, agricultural products, etc., and analyzes their fundamentals and market news [2][5]. Summary by Commodity Precious Metals - **Gold**: Expected to oscillate upwards, with a trend strength of 1 [2][10]. - **Silver**: Expected to break through and rise, with a trend strength of 1 [2][10]. Base Metals - **Copper**: Market is cautious, and prices will oscillate, with a trend strength of 0 [2][11]. - **Zinc**: Under pressure, with a trend strength of -1 [2][15]. - **Lead**: Downside may be limited, with a trend strength of 0 [2][18]. - **Tin**: Prices are weakening, with a trend strength of -1 [2][23]. - **Aluminum**: Facing upward pressure, with a trend strength of 0; Alumina: Attention should be paid to the impact of the ore end, with a trend strength of -1; Cast aluminum alloy: Will oscillate within a range, with a trend strength of 0 [2][26]. - **Nickel**: News affects sentiment, and fundamentals are under pressure, with a trend strength of 0; Stainless steel: Reality and macro factors are in a game, and steel prices will oscillate, with a trend strength of 0 [2][31]. Energy - **Crude Oil - Related**: - **Fuel oil**: Weakly oscillating at night, may temporarily stabilize in the short - term [5]. - **Low - sulfur fuel oil**: Temporarily weak, with a slight decline in the high - low sulfur spread of the outer - market spot [5]. - **LPG**: Cost support is effective, may rebound in the short - term [5]. - **Coal - Related**: - **Coking coal**: Will oscillate widely, with a trend strength of 0 [2][52]. - **Coke**: Will oscillate widely, with a trend strength of 0 [2][52]. - **Steam coal**: Daily consumption is recovering, and prices will oscillate and stabilize, with a trend strength of 0 [54][57]. Chemicals - **Carbonate Lithium**: Warehouse receipts continue to decline, pay attention to substantial changes in supply, with a trend strength of 1 [32][35]. - **Industrial Silicon**: Market sentiment is fermenting, pay attention to upward space, with a trend strength of 1 [36][38]. - **Polysilicon**: Market news continues to ferment, with a trend strength of 1 [36][38]. - **PTA**: In the off - season of demand, with a weak unilateral trend [2]. - **MEG**: Low inventory, positive spread arbitrage on dips [2]. - **Styrene**: Spot liquidity is released, weakly oscillating [2]. - **Soda Ash**: Little change in the spot market [5]. - **PVC**: Weakly oscillating [5]. Agricultural Products - **Palm Oil**: Doubts about production recovery in the origin, waiting for the evolution of contradictions [5]. - **Soybean Oil**: Lack of driving force due to insufficient weather speculation on US soybeans [5]. - **Soybean Meal**: Export expectations improve, US soybeans rise, and domestic soybean meal rebounds [5]. - **Corn**: Pay attention to the spot [5]. - **Sugar**: Waiting for guidance from super - expected information [5]. - **Cotton**: Futures prices hit a new high this year [5]. - **Eggs**: The expectation of a rebound in the peak season is fulfilled, and the sentiment of culling declines [5]. - **Pigs**: Sentiment has changed [5]. - **Peanuts**: There is support below [5]. Others - **Shipping**: For the container shipping index (European line), hold 10 - 12 and 10 - 02 reverse spreads lightly [5]. - **Logs**: Oscillate repeatedly, with a trend strength of 0 [58][61].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - For copper, the 50% tariff on copper imports announced by the US may not fully impact the CL spread in the short - term due to high US copper inventory. Attention should be paid to tariff exemptions for some countries. After the tariff implementation, the low inventory in China and LME may rebound in Q3 [1]. - For aluminum, supply increases slightly, demand is expected to weaken seasonally in July, and supply - demand is balanced. The short - term fundamentals are okay, and attention should be paid to demand and low - inventory trading opportunities [1]. - For zinc, prices fluctuate widely. Supply is expected to increase, demand is seasonally weak at home and weak in Europe overseas. There is a risk of a squeeze in overseas LME inventory. The strategy is to short zinc on rebounds, hold long positions in the domestic - foreign positive spread, and look for long positions in the monthly spread [2]. - For nickel, supply is at a high level, demand is weak, and inventory is stable overseas and slightly decreasing at home. After the cancellation of the Philippine ore export ban, concerns are relieved. Opportunities for narrowing the nickel - stainless steel price ratio can be continued to be monitored [6]. - For stainless steel, supply is reduced, demand is mainly for rigid needs, costs are stable, and inventory is slightly increasing. The short - term trend is expected to be weak and volatile [10]. - For lead, prices decline slightly. Supply is weak, demand is uncertain, and there is a seasonal peak expectation in July. It is expected to oscillate between 17100 - 17500 next week [12]. - For tin, prices fluctuate widely. Supply may decline in July - August, demand is weak, and the short - term supply - demand is weak. Attention should be paid to news from the Wa State mines [14]. - For industrial silicon, production is expected to decline, and the market is expected to shift from inventory accumulation to depletion. If the start - up does not recover significantly, the price is expected to oscillate [17]. - For lithium carbonate, futures prices rebound. Supply - demand is strong, and the absolute price is expected to oscillate. A downward turn requires significant inventory accumulation of warehouse receipts and spot goods [19]. 3. Summary by Metal Copper - **Price and Inventory Data**: From July 9 - 15, the Shanghai copper spot price changed by 165, and LME inventory increased by 850 tons [1]. - **Market Situation**: Trump announced a 50% tariff on copper imports. The US has filled its annual copper import gap, and the CL spread may not fully reflect the tariff. The export of South American countries may be affected, and the low inventory in China and LME may rebound in Q3 [1]. Aluminum - **Price and Inventory Data**: From July 9 - 15, the Shanghai aluminum ingot price changed by 40, and LME inventory increased by 11425 tons [1]. - **Market Situation**: Supply increases slightly, demand is expected to weaken seasonally in July, and supply - demand is balanced in July [1]. Zinc - **Price and Inventory Data**: From July 9 - 15, the Shanghai zinc ingot price decreased by 30, and LME inventory increased by 5200 tons [2]. - **Market Situation**: Zinc prices fluctuate widely. Supply is expected to increase, domestic demand is seasonally weak, and overseas demand is also weak. There is a risk of a squeeze in overseas LME inventory [2]. Nickel - **Price and Inventory Data**: From July 9 - 15, the Shanghai nickel spot price decreased by 1550, and LME inventory remained unchanged [6]. - **Market Situation**: Supply is at a high level, demand is weak, and inventory is stable overseas and slightly decreasing at home. After the cancellation of the Philippine ore export ban, concerns are relieved [6]. Stainless Steel - **Price and Inventory Data**: From July 9 - 15, the 304 hot - rolled coil price increased by 50, and the 201 cold - rolled coil price increased by 50 [10]. - **Market Situation**: Supply is reduced, demand is mainly for rigid needs, costs are stable, and inventory is slightly increasing [10]. Lead - **Price and Inventory Data**: From July 9 - 15, the lead price decreased slightly, and LME inventory increased by 10125 tons [12][21]. - **Market Situation**: Supply is weak, demand is uncertain, and there is a seasonal peak expectation in July. It is expected to oscillate between 17100 - 17500 next week [12]. Tin - **Price and Inventory Data**: From July 9 - 15, the LME tin inventory decreased by 115 tons [14]. - **Market Situation**: Supply may decline in July - August, demand is weak, and the short - term supply - demand is weak. Attention should be paid to news from the Wa State mines [14]. Industrial Silicon - **Price and Inventory Data**: From July 9 - 15, the 421 Yunnan and Sichuan basis decreased by 90, and the 553 East China and Tianjin basis increased by 60 [17]. - **Market Situation**: Production is expected to decline, and the market is expected to shift from inventory accumulation to depletion. If the start - up does not recover significantly, the price is expected to oscillate [17]. Lithium Carbonate - **Price and Inventory Data**: From July 9 - 15, the SMM electric and industrial lithium carbonate prices increased by 250, and the warehouse receipt quantity decreased by 1 [19]. - **Market Situation**: Futures prices rebound. Supply - demand is strong, and the absolute price is expected to oscillate. A downward turn requires significant inventory accumulation of warehouse receipts and spot goods [19].

Report Investment Ratings - Index: Bullish in the short term [1] - Treasury Bonds: Bullish in the long term, short - term upside limited [1] - Gold: Sideways in the short term, risk of pull - back after rally [1] - Copper: Bearish [1] - Aluminum: Sideways to bearish [1] - Alumina: Sideways to bullish [1] - Zinc: Bearish, look for shorting opportunities [1] - Nickel: Sideways, short - term shorting opportunities, long - term bearish due to surplus [1] - Stainless Steel: Sideways, short - term trading, look for cash - and - carry opportunities [1] - Tin: Sideways in the short term, risk of price decline in the long term [1] - Polysilicon: Bullish [1] - Lithium Carbonate: Sideways [1] - Iron Ore: Sideways, fundamental weakening [1] - Manganese Silicon: Supply - demand balanced [1] - Ferrosilicon: Supply - demand balanced [1] - Black Metals: Bullish in the short term, bearish in the medium term due to surplus [1] - Coking Coal: Sideways, avoid shorting in the short term, look for cash - and - carry opportunities [1] - Coke: Sideways, look for selling - hedging opportunities when futures are at a premium [1] - Palm Oil: Look for buying opportunities on pull - backs [1] - Rapeseed Oil: Sideways [1] - Canola Oil: Bearish in the short term [1] - Cotton: Sideways to bearish [1] - Sugar: Bullish due to expected production increase [1] - Corn: Sideways, look for shorting opportunities for 001 contract [1] - Soybean Meal: Sideways, look for buying opportunities on dips [1] - Pulp: Do not chase the rally [1] - Logs: Sideways [1] - Live Pigs: Futures stable [1] - Fuel Oil: Bullish in the short term due to consumption and supply factors [1] - Asphalt: Volatile due to cost and demand factors [1] - Shanghai Rubber: Sideways to bearish [1] - BR Rubber: Sideways with some support [1] - PTA: Sideways [1] - Ethylene Glycol: Sideways [1] - Short - fiber: Bullish [1] - Styrene: Bearish [1] - Urea: Sideways [1] - PE: Sideways to bullish [1] - PP: Sideways to bullish [1] - PVC: Sideways to bullish [1] - Caustic Soda: Sideways [1] - LPG: Sideways to bearish [1] - Container Shipping to Europe: Sideways, expected price peak in mid - July [1] Core Viewpoints - The stock index is expected to be bullish in the short term due to "asset shortage", "national team" support, and positive market sentiment [1] - Asset shortage and weak economy are favorable for bond futures, but short - term interest rate risks from the central bank limit upside [1] - Gold prices will mainly fluctuate due to market uncertainties [1] - Copper prices face a risk of catch - up decline due to inflation and tariff factors [1] - Aluminum prices will move sideways to bearishly due to high prices suppressing demand and inventory build - up [1] - Alumina prices will stabilize and rise due to supply - side reform expectations [1] - Zinc prices are under pressure, and shorting opportunities should be watched [1] - Nickel prices will move sideways, with short - term shorting opportunities and long - term surplus pressure [1] - Stainless steel futures will move sideways, and cash - and - carry opportunities should be grasped [1] - Tin prices have short - term support but face a risk of decline in the long term [1] - Polysilicon is bullish due to supply - side reform expectations and high market sentiment [1] - Lithium carbonate prices will move sideways [1] - Iron ore has good market sentiment but weakening fundamentals [1] - Black metals are bullish in the short term and bearish in the medium term due to supply - demand imbalance [1] - Coking coal and coke should focus on cash - and - carry and selling - hedging opportunities [1] - Palm oil should look for buying opportunities on pull - backs [1] - Cotton prices will move sideways to bearishly [1] - Sugar production in Brazil is expected to increase, and the impact of crude oil on sugar production should be watched [1] - Corn prices will move sideways, and shorting opportunities for the 001 contract should be watched [1] - Soybean meal prices will move sideways, and buying opportunities on dips should be considered [1] - Pulp should not be chased higher [1] - Live pig futures are stable [1] - Fuel oil and asphalt prices are affected by supply, demand, and cost factors [1] - Rubber prices will move sideways to bearishly [1] - Chemical product prices are affected by supply, demand, cost, and other factors, showing different trends [1] - Container shipping to Europe is in a pattern of stable reality and weak expectation, with an expected price peak in mid - July [1] Summary by Category Index - Short - term bullish trend due to "asset shortage", "national team" support, and positive market sentiment [1] Treasury Bonds - Bullish in the long term due to asset shortage and weak economy, but short - term upside limited by central bank - hinted interest rate risks [1] Gold - Sideways in the short term due to market uncertainties, risk of pull - back after rally [1] Non - ferrous Metals - Copper: Bearish due to inflation and tariff factors [1] - Aluminum: Sideways to bearish due to high prices suppressing demand and inventory build - up [1] - Alumina: Sideways to bullish due to supply - side reform expectations [1] - Zinc: Bearish, look for shorting opportunities due to inventory build - up pressure [1] - Nickel: Sideways, short - term shorting opportunities, long - term surplus pressure [1] - Stainless Steel: Sideways, focus on cash - and - carry opportunities [1] - Tin: Sideways in the short term, risk of decline in the long term [1] Energy and Chemicals - Polysilicon: Bullish due to supply - side reform expectations and high market sentiment [1] - Lithium Carbonate: Sideways [1] - Iron Ore: Sideways, fundamental weakening [1] - Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon: Supply - demand balanced [1] - Black Metals: Bullish in the short term, bearish in the medium term due to supply - demand imbalance [1] - Coking Coal and Coke: Focus on cash - and - carry and selling - hedging opportunities [1] - Fuel Oil and Asphalt: Affected by supply, demand, and cost factors [1] - Rubber: Sideways to bearish [1] - Chemical Products: Different trends affected by supply, demand, cost, etc [1] Agricultural Products - Palm Oil: Look for buying opportunities on pull - backs [1] - Rapeseed Oil: Sideways [1] - Canola Oil: Bearish in the short term [1] - Cotton: Sideways to bearish [1] - Sugar: Bullish due to expected production increase in Brazil [1] - Corn: Sideways, look for shorting opportunities for the 001 contract [1] - Soybean Meal: Sideways, look for buying opportunities on dips [1] Others - Pulp: Do not chase the rally [1] - Live Pigs: Futures stable [1] - Container Shipping to Europe: Stable reality and weak expectation, expected price peak in mid - July [1]

Group 1 - The earnings season for Q2 2025 has begun amidst a complex investment environment influenced by the Trump administration's global tariff policies, which are expected to impact corporate profit margins significantly [1] - Analysts predict a 2.5% year-over-year profit growth for the S&P 500 in Q2, with net profit margins declining to the lowest level since Q1 2024, although this decline may be temporary due to ongoing investments in artificial intelligence by major tech companies [3] - The banking sector is expected to show mixed results, reflecting the impact of monetary policy on different business models, with high interest rates squeezing traditional lending profits while capital market activities benefit trading and investment banking [5] Group 2 - The "Big Seven" tech companies are projected to contribute nearly 65% of the S&P 500's profit growth in Q2, with an expected profit increase of 14%, driven by their asset-light business models and significant investments in AI [5] - Defensive sectors such as utilities, consumer staples, and healthcare have shown relative stability in uncertain environments, outperforming cyclical sectors by approximately 6 percentage points since the announcement of tariff policies [7] - Cyclical industries, particularly steel and aluminum producers, are expected to be the biggest victims of tariff policies, as weakened demand from downstream industries like automotive and construction hampers anticipated growth [7] Group 3 - Despite challenges such as tariff impacts, slowing profit growth, and high valuations, the S&P 500 reached a historical high in early July, supported by resilient economic growth expectations and a potential shift in Federal Reserve policy towards interest rate cuts [9] - Investors are advised to focus on high-growth tech giants while also considering stable defensive sectors, as the earnings reports may surprise positively due to lower market expectations [9]

Summary of Conference Call Notes Industry Overview - The macroeconomic environment in both China and the U.S. is showing signs of concern due to trade issues, with manufacturing PMI indicating a decline in economic activity [1] - Recent domestic meetings suggest strong policy support expectations, alongside a potential easing of trade tensions between China and the U.S. [1] Supply and Demand Dynamics Copper Market - Supply constraints in copper mining persist, with tight supply conditions expected to continue [2] - Despite production increases, there are pressures for supply contraction due to mining challenges [2] - Demand has improved post-Qingming Festival, but overall investment in power engineering is lagging compared to last year [2][3] - Domestic electrolytic copper inventories remain low, prompting strategies to capitalize on market conditions [3][12] Aluminum Market - Aluminum supply constraints are well-known, with no significant increases expected [5] - Downstream demand for aluminum is declining as the industry enters a seasonal downturn [6] - The production of aluminum is under pressure due to reduced demand, leading to profit compression [6] - The supply of bauxite remains ample, but the overall aluminum market is facing downward price pressure [7][8] - The aluminum market is expected to experience a seasonal decline in production, impacting profit margins [18] Strategic Insights - A strategy of "backwardation" in the aluminum market is suggested, as supply pressures and reduced demand are anticipated [18][19] - The copper market is experiencing a "month spread" strategy, indicating potential for short-term gains despite overall market concerns [4][22] - The overall sentiment in the aluminum market is bearish, with recommendations to adopt a cautious approach to trading strategies [24] Key Data Points - The copper price has reached levels where downstream orders are slowing, indicating a potential market correction [12] - The domestic copper mining output is constrained, with global production growth remaining limited [10][11] - The aluminum market is facing a significant decline in demand, particularly in sectors related to construction and new energy vehicles [13][17] Conclusion - The current market conditions for both copper and aluminum indicate a complex interplay of supply constraints and fluctuating demand, necessitating careful monitoring and strategic positioning by investors [24]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The precious metals market is expected to maintain high - level fluctuations due to uncertainties in the US economic situation and inflation. Copper prices are likely to face downward pressure due to changes in supply and demand and tariff policies. Alumina prices are expected to show a strong and volatile trend, with a supply shift from tight balance to structural surplus. The electrolytic aluminum market has mixed factors, with macro - economic and policy impacts, and inventory changes affecting prices. Cast aluminum alloy prices are under pressure, with supply and demand imbalances. Zinc prices may decline due to increased supply and weak consumption. Lead prices may fluctuate at high levels, with improved consumption and limited supply growth. Nickel prices are expected to be weak, with a weak supply - demand situation in the off - season. Stainless steel prices are under pressure due to over - supply and weak demand. Industrial silicon prices are expected to be bullish after a correction, with a balanced supply - demand situation. Polysilicon prices are expected to enter a volatile phase. Lithium carbonate prices are expected to be volatile in the short term and may decline in the long term [3][8][14][20][27][30][34][37][42][48][53][55]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Precious Metals Market Review - London gold closed down 0.58% at $3323.29 per ounce, and London silver closed down 1.12% at $37.686 per ounce. The US dollar index rose 0.54% to 98.62, the 10 - year US Treasury yield climbed to 4.488%, and the RMB exchange rate against the US dollar strengthened, closing up 0.12% at 7.181 [2]. Important Information - The US CPI data in June met market expectations, with the overall CPI annual rate rising to 2.7% and the core CPI annual rate rising to 2.9%. The probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged in July is 97.4%, and the probability of a 25 - basis - point rate cut is 2.6%. The probability of keeping interest rates unchanged in September is 45.1%, and the probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point rate cut is 53.5% [2]. Logic Analysis - The CPI data dampened market expectations of a rate cut, causing the US dollar and Treasury yields to rise and precious metals to be under pressure. If the US labor market does not collapse unexpectedly, the Fed's rate - cut timing may be postponed, and precious metals are expected to maintain high - level fluctuations [3]. Trading Strategy - Consider taking profits on long positions at high prices. Wait and see for arbitrage and options trading [3]. Copper Market Review - The night - session of the SHFE copper 2508 contract closed at 78,070 yuan per ton, up 0.18%. The LME copper closed at $9,657.5 per ton, up 0.15%. LME inventory increased by 850 tons to 110,500 tons, and COMEX inventory increased by 1,810 tons to 238,000 tons [5]. Important Information - The US CPI data in June met expectations. There were various tariff - related news, and the import of copper ore and concentrates in June 2025 increased by 1.7% year - on - year, while the import of unwrought copper and copper products decreased by 6.4% year - on - year [5][6]. Logic Analysis - The CPI data reduced market expectations of a Fed rate cut in September, causing the US dollar index to rise and non - ferrous metal prices to fall. The 232 tariff will be implemented on August 1, and the supply situation will change, with LME inventory bottoming out [8]. Trading Strategy - Hold short positions. Wait and see for arbitrage and options trading [8]. Alumina Market Review - The night - session of the alumina 2509 contract fell 17 yuan to 3,144 yuan per ton. Spot prices in different regions showed an upward trend [10]. Important Information - There were policy - related news, domestic spot transactions, changes in warehouse receipts, production capacity, output, inventory, and bauxite shipments [11][12][13]. Logic Analysis - Although the operating capacity remained flat, production was increasing. The supply - demand pattern is shifting from tight balance to structural surplus, but warehouse - receipt demand may disperse the pressure of spot surplus, and prices are expected to be strong and volatile [14]. Trading Strategy - Conduct high - selling and low - buying in the short - term. Wait and see for arbitrage and options trading [16]. Electrolytic Aluminum Market Review - The night - session of the SHFE aluminum 2508 contract remained flat at 20,390 yuan per ton. Spot prices in different regions rose [18]. Important Information - There were changes in inventory, basis, and warehouse receipts. US inflation data and tariff - related news were also reported, along with domestic housing construction data [18][19]. Trading Logic - Macro - economic factors suppress the Fed's rate - cut expectations, and the domestic market focuses on policy expectations. Fundamentally, inventory changes and demand factors co - exist [20]. Trading Strategy - Adopt a bearish view in the short - term. Wait and see for arbitrage and options trading [21]. Cast Aluminum Alloy Market Review - The night - session of the cast aluminum alloy 2511 contract rose 20 yuan to 19,795 yuan per ton. Spot prices in different regions remained flat [23]. Important Information - There were changes in production, cost, and inventory [23][24][26]. Trading Logic - Supply is stable but with actual transaction difficulties, and demand is weak. Futures prices are expected to follow aluminum prices due to cost factors [27]. Trading Strategy - Adopt a bearish view. Consider arbitrage when the price difference between aluminum alloy and aluminum is between - 200 and - 1000 yuan, and consider cash - and - carry arbitrage when the futures - spot price difference is over 400 yuan. Wait and see for options trading [27]. Zinc Market Review - The LME zinc market fell 1.13% to $2,701.5 per ton, and the SHFE zinc 2509 fell 0.54% to 21,985 yuan per ton. Spot prices and trading conditions were reported [29]. Important Information - A zinc smelter planned maintenance and capacity expansion, and domestic zinc inventory increased [29]. Logic Analysis - Domestic zinc supply is increasing, consumption is in the off - season, and inventory is accumulating, so prices may be under pressure [30]. Trading Strategy - Hold short positions. Wait and see for arbitrage and options trading [35]. Lead Market Review - The LME lead market fell 0.2% to $2,001 per ton, and the SHFE lead 2508 contract fell 0.44% to 16,935 yuan per ton. Spot prices and trading conditions were reported [32]. Important Information - Lead inventory increased [33]. Logic Analysis - The supply of recycled lead is in a loss state, and production willingness is low. The traditional peak season for lead - acid batteries is approaching, and consumption is improving [34]. Trading Strategy - Conduct high - selling and low - buying in the short - term. Sell put options for arbitrage. Wait and see for options trading [34]. Nickel Market Review - The LME nickel rose to $15,215 per ton, and the SHFE nickel NI2508 rose to 121,060 yuan per ton. Spot premiums changed [37]. Important Information - The LME Hong Kong delivery warehouse started operation [37]. Logic Analysis - Concerns about US tariffs affect external demand. The supply - demand situation in the off - season is weak, and prices are expected to be weak but with cost support [37]. Trading Strategy - Prices are expected to decline. Wait and see for arbitrage. Sell deep - out - of - the - money call options [38]. Stainless Steel Market Review - The SS2508 contract rose to 12,720 yuan per ton. Spot prices in different regions were reported [40]. Important Information - India postponed the implementation of relevant regulations, and South Korea imposed anti - dumping duties on Vietnamese cold - rolled stainless steel [40][42]. Logic Analysis - External and internal demand is weak, inventory is accumulating, and prices are under pressure [42]. Trading Strategy - Adopt a bearish view. Wait and see for arbitrage [43]. Industrial Silicon Market Review - The industrial silicon futures main contract rose 2.81% to 8,785 yuan per ton, and spot prices also rose [45]. Important Information - The US launched 232 investigations on imported drones and polysilicon [46]. Comprehensive Analysis - Production is decreasing, and demand is relatively stable. The market is in a balanced state, and prices are expected to be bullish after a correction [48]. Strategy - Adopt a bullish view after a correction. Close the long - polysilicon and short - industrial - silicon arbitrage position [49]. Polysilicon Market Review - The polysilicon futures main contract rose 2.78% to 42,470 yuan per ton, and spot prices declined [51]. Important Information - There was news of China - EU energy cooperation [51]. Comprehensive Analysis - Market rumors are frequent, and prices are expected to enter a volatile phase [53]. Strategy - Conduct range trading. Wait and see for options trading. Close the long - polysilicon and short - industrial - silicon arbitrage position [53]. Lithium Carbonate Market Review - The main 2509 contract rose 140 yuan to 66,100 yuan per ton, and spot prices rose [55]. Important Information - There were policy - related news about technology export control [55]. Logic Analysis - Supply - side disturbances have not had a substantial impact on production. Prices are expected to be volatile in the short term and may decline in the long term [55]. Trading Strategy - Wait for short - selling opportunities. Wait and see for arbitrage. Sell deep - out - of - the - money put options [57].

Report Information - Report Title: Aluminum Daily Report [1] - Date: July 16, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Non-ferrous Metals Research Team [3] - Researchers: Yu Feifei, Zhang Ping, Peng Jinglin [3] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - On the 15th, Shanghai aluminum fluctuated within a narrow range, with the main 2508 contract slightly down 0.02% at 20,430. The total open interest of the index decreased by 8,776 to 635,827 lots, and the 07 - 08 premium continued to narrow to 25. After the decline in futures prices, the market trading atmosphere improved, and downstream procurement willingness increased compared to last week. Near the contract roll - over, the monthly spread fluctuations led to changes in the spot premium or discount. The current automotive industry is in the off - season, with weakening demand and raw material supply shortages. Under the situation of weak supply and demand, cast aluminum is expected to continue to fluctuate, and the low negative spread structure of AD - AL will remain. China's electrolytic aluminum operating capacity remains at a high level, with a slight decline in the short term due to capacity replacement. Downstream, due to multiple negative factors such as insufficient orders in the traditional off - season, high aluminum prices, and high - temperature weather, the operating rate remains weak, and the off - season effect at the terminal is prominent. On Monday this week, the inventory suddenly increased by 35,000 tons to over 500,000 tons, and the price support weakened. As the off - season arrives, both the supply and demand of electrolytic aluminum tend to be weak, while the smelting profit is high. The strategy is mainly to short - sell for hedging at high levels, and hold the AD - AL arbitrage [8]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - On the 15th, Shanghai aluminum fluctuated narrowly. The main 2508 contract slightly decreased by 0.02% to 20,430. The total open interest of the index decreased by 8,776 to 635,827 lots, and the 07 - 08 premium continued to narrow to 25 [8]. - After the decline in futures prices, the market trading atmosphere improved, and downstream procurement willingness increased compared to last week. Near the contract roll - over, the monthly spread fluctuations led to changes in the spot premium or discount. The spot premium in East China was 50, the discount in the Central Plains was - 90, and the premium in South China was 40 [8]. - Cast aluminum alloy fluctuated narrowly following Shanghai aluminum. The 2511 contract closed flat compared to the previous day, and the AD - AL negative spread was - 480. In the current off - season of the automotive industry, with weakening demand and raw material supply shortages, cast aluminum is expected to continue to fluctuate under the situation of weak supply and demand, and the low negative spread structure of AD - AL will remain [8]. - China's electrolytic aluminum operating capacity remains at a high level, with a slight decline in the short term due to capacity replacement. Downstream, due to multiple negative factors such as insufficient orders in the traditional off - season, high aluminum prices, and high - temperature weather, the operating rate remains weak, and the off - season effect at the terminal is prominent. On Monday this week, the inventory suddenly increased by 35,000 tons to over 500,000 tons, and the price support weakened [8]. - As the off - season arrives, both the supply and demand of electrolytic aluminum tend to be weak, while the smelting profit is high. The strategy is mainly to short - sell for hedging at high levels, and hold the AD - AL arbitrage [8]. 2. Industry News - As the July 9 tariff deadline approaches, the EU - US trade negotiation has entered a critical stage. The EU Commission spokesperson said on Monday that the negotiation has made progress and entered the "beginning of the final stage" and will at least reach a principled agreement. Previously, US President Trump threatened to impose a 50% tariff on EU goods if there was no breakthrough in the EU - US trade negotiation before July 9. Currently, the US imposes a 50% tariff on EU steel and aluminum products, a 25% tariff on the automotive sector, and a 10% benchmark tariff on almost all other goods [9]. - The Ministry of Housing and Urban - Rural Development emphasized the importance of promoting the stable, healthy, and high - quality development of the real estate market. Local governments should take responsibility, make full use of the autonomy in real estate regulation policies, implement policies according to local conditions, and continuously consolidate the stable situation of the real estate market [10]. - On July 3, PowerChina announced that its subsidiary signed a mining and transportation project contract for the KEBO bauxite in the TELIMELE MADINA DIAN area of Guinea with a contract value of approximately 5.063 billion yuan. The project is located in the MADINA DIAN area of Telimele Province, Kindia Region, Guinea. The main project content includes bauxite exploration, overburden stripping, waste ore excavation, mining, and transportation in a 204.37 - square - kilometer mining area. The expected mining volume is 28 million tons, and the total land transportation length is approximately 197 kilometers. The total project duration is about 72 months, with no warranty period [10]. - On July 3, Vedanta announced its key metal production in FY26Q1 (April - June 2025). The alumina production at Lanjigarh reached a record high of 587,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 9% and a month - on - month increase of 36%. The quarterly electrolytic aluminum production was 605,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 1% and flat month - on - month [10].