Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - The UK real estate market has experienced significant fluctuations, with a recovery in second-hand home sales reaching 66% of pre-crisis peak levels and house prices recovering to 1.55 times the pre-crisis peak after 83 months [5][12][25] - The impact of policies such as quantitative easing (QE) and stamp duty adjustments has been significant, with the latter showing more pronounced effects on the real estate cycle [5][27] - Population dynamics, including high homeownership rates among local residents and the influx of new immigrants, have influenced housing demand, although immigration has not significantly impacted house prices [5][46][50] Summary by Sections Transaction Volume and Price Cycle Review - The UK housing market saw a decline in second-hand home sales by 64% and new home sales by 59% during the crisis period from 2007 to 2009 [12] - Currently, second-hand sales have recovered to 66% of their peak, while new home sales are at 45% of their peak [12] - House prices have increased to 1.55 times the pre-crisis peak, indicating a strong recovery [12][25] Policy Cycle Impact Review - The report highlights that the focus of policy responses during the 2007-2009 financial crisis was on stabilizing the banking system rather than directly stimulating housing transactions or prices [28] - Key measures included bank nationalization, emergency liquidity support, and the initiation of QE, which helped stabilize the housing market [28][29] Core Influencing Factors: Population Migration, Rent, and Mortgage Loans - The homeownership rate among UK-born residents is 67%, while EU-born residents have a lower homeownership rate of 35% [39][42] - New immigrants tend to rent initially, with homeownership rates increasing significantly after 20 years of residence in the UK [44] - Rental prices have shown a consistent upward trend, with recent yields recovering to 6.08% after a decline [50][62] Mortgage and Holding Costs - The average holding cost for properties is estimated to be between 1.0% and 2.5% of the property value annually [5][78] - The typical loan-to-value ratio for owner-occupied homes ranges from 75% to 90%, while investment properties usually do not exceed 75% [78] Price-to-Income Ratio and Monthly Payment Burden - The national price-to-income ratio was 4.9 in Q3 2025, with a peak of 5.8 in Q3 2022 and a low of 4.1 in Q1 2009 [73] - The monthly payment burden ratio was 33.8% in Q3 2025, with a peak of 46% in Q4 2007 and a low of 27.1% in Q3 2020 [77] Mortgage Loan Dynamics - The total amount of mortgage loans issued has seen a recovery post-crisis, with significant fluctuations in new loan commitments reflecting market sensitivity [80][83] - The pricing of mortgage loans has shifted from being risk-premium driven to being more influenced by policy interest rates [86]

板块题材上，煤炭开采加工、光伏设备、机场航运、房地产、钢铁、天然气、建筑材料、零售板块涨幅居前；贵金属、AI 应用、算力租赁、半导体、游戏传媒、CPO概念股跌幅居前。盘面上，马斯克团队密访中国多家光伏企业消息提振光伏板块情 绪，晶科能源、TCL中环等10余股涨停。随着迎峰度冬能源保供，煤炭需求增加，煤炭板块集体大涨，兖矿能源、陕西黑猫等 10余股封板。地产链同样表现活跃，招商蛇口、保利发展等股上扬。此外，石油天然气、机场航运、零售等板块均有拉升。另 一方面，部分高位黄金股回补下跌，四川黄金盘中逼近跌停。云计算、算力租赁板块大幅回调，网宿科技、优刻得、大位科技 跌幅居前。 A股三大指数今日涨跌不一，截至收盘沪指涨0.85%，深成指涨0.21%，创业板指跌0.4%，北证50指数跌0.71%，沪深京三 市成交额25033亿元，较上日缩量624亿元，三市超3200只个股上涨。 ...

证券研究报告 | 2026年02月04日 房地产行业专题 优于大市 香港楼市复苏的复盘、展望与借鉴 长周期视角下 2025 年香港楼市复盘。2025 年香港私人住宅成交量+21%，为 2013 年以来的第二高水平，连续两年规模上涨；价格指数自 3 月确认底部后 连续三个季度企稳回升，较底部回升 4.8%，全年+3.3%；租金指数全年+4.3%， 已超过 2019 年达到历史新高。本轮复苏呈典型的"量在价先"，成交量处 于历史高分位，价格较 2021 年 9 月的历史高点仍有大约 25%的回撤，目前大 约在 2016 年三季度的位置水平。 比较 1997-2003 和 2021-2025 两轮下跌周期，前者属于"资产泡沫破裂+本 地金融危机"，为极端信用收缩情形，后者属于对"估值回调+宏观利率变 化"的反应。由于下跌原因的不同， 两者回撤时间、跌幅、冲击力等方面 均有差异，前者回撤周期 69 个月，跌幅达 66%，后者回撤周期 42 个月，跌 幅达 28%。 2021-2025 下跌周期显然更加温和，且目前复苏周期"政策+利率+需求+内地 红利"的共振幅度小于 2003 年，我们预计中期内香港房地产市场的复苏将 ...

智通财经APP获悉，国泰海通发布研报称，美元兑人民币小幅贬值，主要航线海运费同比继续下滑;美 国餐饮RPI环比下降，美国住房市场指数环比承压。建议重点关注具备全球制造布局、品牌输出能力与 渠道整合优势的出口型消费企业。在当前外部环境变化与政策博弈背景下，具备产能多元化配置、稳定 客户黏性及定价权的企业，有望在全球贸易格局调整中实现持续成长。该行看好市场占有率高、供应链 韧性强、并已建立成熟海外产能的标的。 国泰海通主要观点如下： 成本跟踪 美元兑人民币汇率小幅贬值;欧洲航线、美东航线、美西航线、东南亚航线海运费同比下降。1)汇率： 2026年1月30日美元兑人民币即期汇率为6.95，环比1月23日上升1.30%;欧元兑人民币汇率为8.28，环比1 月23日+0.97%。2)海运费：2026年1月第四周中国出口集装箱运价指数(CCFI)中，综合指数为1175.59， 同比下降16.92%，环比下降2.74%;欧洲航线为1574.69，同比下降25.16%，环比上升0.35%;美东航线为 975.78，同比下降24.75%，环比下降0.37%;美西航线为867.79，同比下降27.60%，环比上升1.64%;东南 ...

Core Insights - The article discusses the investment opportunities and risks associated with various sectors, particularly focusing on the real estate and financial industries in the context of market trends and predictions for the upcoming year [3][14]. Industry Focus - The real estate sector is highlighted as facing challenges due to market fluctuations and external factors, with predictions indicating potential volatility in property values [3][14]. - The financial services industry is also mentioned, with a focus on the implications of market dynamics on investment strategies and stock performance [3][14]. Market Predictions - The article emphasizes the importance of understanding market trends and the influence of external factors on investment decisions, particularly in the context of the upcoming year [3][14]. - Predictions for the real estate market suggest a cautious approach, as various factors could lead to significant changes in property values and investment returns [3][14]. Investment Strategies - The article suggests that investors should consider sector-specific trends and external influences when formulating their investment strategies, particularly in real estate and financial services [3][14]. - Emphasis is placed on the need for adaptability in investment approaches to navigate potential market volatility effectively [3][14].

截至2026年2月4日 13:53，南方基金旗下房地产ETF(512200)一度涨超3%，现涨2.55%，盘中换手 4.43%，成交3.08亿元。跟踪指数中证全指房地产指数成分股荣安地产上涨10.27%，我爱我家上涨 10.06%，华发股份上涨9.95%，财信发展，招商蛇口等个股跟涨。 房地产ETF(512200)，场外联接(A类：004642；C类：004643) 中信证券指出，尽管行业短期业绩仍受历史调整影响，但经营性资产复苏态势显著，政策支持、REITs 市场扩容等多重积极信号密集释放，房地产行业已具备止跌回稳基础，核心资产价值有望迎来重估。 该行指出，我国居民部门的现金流量表保持良好，宏观经济健康向上，这也是未来企业经营性现金流净 流入可能持续修复的底气。政策力推住宅价格止跌，加上商业地产资产增值，相信房地产板块的主体信 用风险已经开始退潮。当行业的主要融资性现金流入，从以信用债（主体负债）为主转向以项目融资 （REITs和物业经营贷等）为主之际，企业资产和负债错配的矛盾就正在得到解决。 房地产ETF(512200)紧密跟踪中证全指房地产指数，为反映中证全指指数样本中不同行业公司证券的整 体表现，为投 ...

证券研究报告 宏观经济点评 2026 年 02 月 04 日 1 月高频数据跟踪 [Table_Author] 魏争 分析师 Email:weizheng@lczq.com 证书:S1320524100001 摘要： 生产端看，开工率边际回暖，工业品库存、产能利用率分化。开工率方 面，1 月，247 家高炉开工率 78.96%，略有抬升，但仍偏弱；电炉开工 率、螺纹钢开工率分别为 62.44%、38.77%，高于上月均值。水泥磨机开 工率为 27.92%，较上月回落；除沥青外，化工品开工率普遍回升：石油 沥青开工率均值为 26.23%，低于上月；纯碱、PVC、PTA 开工率均值分 别为 84.36%、79.12%、76.10%，均较上月明显提升。库存方面，冷 轧、热卷、浮法玻璃去库，环比增速分别为-3.58%、-7.91%、-7.63%， 螺纹钢、铁矿石、炼焦煤库存上升，环比增速分别为 4.57%、6.65%、 0.36；水泥库容比、水泥发运率环比回落，环比分别为-4.28%、 10.93%。产能利用率方面，焦化产能利用率略下降，录得 76.38%；电炉 产能利用率为 53.74%，较上期均值略提升；水泥熟料 ...

资金面则显示了明显的"避险"和"求稳"倾向。央行今日加量投放流动性，缓解了资金面担忧，但新入市 的资金以及部分存量资金，在近期全球科技股波动加剧的背景下，选择了流向股息率高、业绩稳定、且 受益于政策托底的板块。煤炭正是这类资产的典型代表。这种从成长向价值的仓位腾挪，是造成板块 间"跷跷板"效应的直接推手。 外部市场的传导效应也不容忽视。港股恒生科技指数今日再度大跌2.29%，其中软件与半导体板块跌幅 尤甚。这既受到全球范围内对AI技术颠覆传统商业模式担忧情绪的影响，也反映出国际资金对部分高 估值科技领域的重新定价。A股与港股在科技股上的联动性日益增强，这种负面情绪很自然地传导至A 股的TMT板块。 重点谈谈领涨的煤炭板块。它的崛起并非简单的超跌反弹。在"能源安全"的战略框架下，煤炭行业的定 位正在发生微妙变化，从单纯的"传统能源"向"稳定器"和"现代化产业基础"转变。这带来了估值体系重 塑的潜在可能。叠加其自身低估值、高现金流的财务特征，在不确定性上升的市场中，它自然成为了防 御性配置的优选。今日的暴涨，是市场对这份"确定性"给予的溢价。 展望未来，这种分化的态势可能不会迅速结束。市场将从普涨普跌的"贝塔行情 ...

Market Overview - On February 4, the A-share market experienced a decline, with the Shanghai Composite Index turning negative and the ChiNext Index dropping over 2%. The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets reached 1.63 trillion yuan, an increase of 12.7 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day, with over 2900 stocks declining [1]. Sector Performance - The space photovoltaic concept showed strong performance, with Zhonglai Co. hitting the daily limit and Guosheng Technology achieving two consecutive limits. The airport and shipping sectors also performed well, with China Eastern Airlines and Huaxia Airlines reaching their daily limits. The real estate sector was active, with Rong'an Real Estate and Caixin Development hitting their daily limits. The hydrogen energy concept surged, with Jingcheng Co. and Zhiyuan New Energy reaching their daily limits [4]. - The coal sector experienced a significant surge, with major coal companies like Yanzhou Coal Mining and China Coal Energy both hitting their daily limits. Other stocks such as Shaanxi Black Cat and Meijin Energy also reached their daily limits, while Shaanxi Coal and Chemical, Shanxi Coal International, Xinji Energy, and China Shenhua followed suit [4]. Coal Supply Impact - Reports indicate that the Indonesian government has proposed a significant production cut, leading to a suspension of spot coal exports by local miners. China is the largest importer of Indonesian coal, with an expected import of 242 million tons in 2024, accounting for 42.73% of Indonesia's total exports. This suspension is projected to impact China's thermal coal supply by 5.3%, increasing inventory pressure on power plants in Southeast China. Additionally, there are reports of rising coal prices domestically [6]. Precious Metals Market - The precious metals sector opened with a rebound but later turned negative, with companies like Zijin Mining and Hunan Gold experiencing declines. The National Investment Silver LOF resumed trading and hit the daily limit down, with a latest premium rate of 64.6%. After significant drops on January 30 and February 2, spot gold prices rebounded to over $5000, while spot silver reached $88 per ounce [7]. - Market sentiment remains volatile, with speculative funds showing significant movement. The geopolitical uncertainty surrounding US-Iran negotiations continues to pose risks. Overall, the precious metals market is influenced heavily by market emotions, with short-term volatility risks to be monitored, while long-term trends remain optimistic [7]. Individual Stock Highlights - Guizhou Moutai's stock rose over 2%, reaching a price above 1500 yuan for the first time since September 15, 2025 [8]. Hong Kong Market - The Hang Seng Technology Index fell over 2%, with many tech stocks in Hong Kong experiencing declines. Notable drops included Bilibili down over 4%, Tencent Holdings down over 3%, and other companies like Baidu, Lenovo, NetEase, Meituan, and Xiaomi all falling over 2% [9]. Cryptocurrency Market - The cryptocurrency market saw a collective downturn, with Bitcoin experiencing a high-level correction of nearly 40% [10].

Market Overview - The US stock market experienced a decline, with the Chinese concept index dropping by 0.94%. The Hang Seng Index fell by 110.27 points, a decrease of 0.41%, closing at 26,724.50 points, while the Hang Seng Tech Index dropped by 120.19 points, down 2.20%, reaching a new low since mid-July 2025 [1] - Technology stocks, particularly those considered riskier, continued to decline, with Tencent falling nearly 4% after restrictions on its "Yuanbao Red Packet" link by WeChat. Other major players like Baidu, Meituan, and Xiaomi also saw declines of over 2%, while Bilibili dropped nearly 5% [1] - Chip stocks faced significant losses, with Shanghai Fudan down nearly 9%, Huahong Semiconductor down over 5%, and SMIC down nearly 3% [1] - The coal sector showed strength, with Feishang No Smoke Coal rising over 33%. Real estate stocks also performed well, with Sunac China up over 7% and China Resources Land up nearly 4% [1] Corporate Developments - In the technology sector, InnoCare successfully completed a significant design integration for AI hardware with Google, establishing a solid foundation in the AI hardware market [1] - Enoch Intelligent received a milestone payment of HKD 39 million from Menarini, marking a significant step in its pharmaceutical technology research [1] - Capital investment firm Shumeng Capital signed a contract worth USD 3 million with a Macau distributor, expanding its business footprint [1] Pharmaceutical Industry Highlights - Youzhiyou Biotech's M701 received FDA IND approval for a novel therapy targeting malignant pleural effusion, marking a new phase in international clinical development [2] - Xiansheng Pharmaceutical received a milestone payment of USD 40 million from AbbVie for the overseas licensing option agreement for SIM0500, highlighting its competitiveness in the international pharmaceutical market [2] - Kangfang Biotech granted exclusive commercialization rights for Yixinning® to Jichuan Pharmaceutical, resulting in significant licensing fees and milestone payments [2] - Federal Pharmaceuticals' UBT251 injection received implied clinical trial approval for a new indication, providing new treatment options for patients [2] Food Industry Performance - Nissin Foods reported strong performance in its China business segment, with revenue reaching JPY 54.948 billion, a year-on-year increase of 2.7%, and core operating profit of JPY 5.859 billion, up 9.3% [2] Capital Market Insights - Guotai Junan International noted a market shift from "liquidity-driven" to "profit-driven" dynamics, suggesting a focus on fundamental analysis rather than speculative trading [4] - CITIC Securities observed significant adjustments in Hong Kong stock earnings expectations, predicting a continuation of the spring market rally with large-cap stocks outperforming [4] - Huatai Securities indicated that the current market sentiment has shifted to optimism, suggesting a focus on companies with earnings certainty and potential for growth in technology and cyclical sectors [5] - Guoyuan International highlighted that Hong Kong stocks may continue to outperform US stocks due to favorable conditions for non-US assets and the potential recovery of domestic demand [5]