1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The steel market shows marginal improvement in supply - demand, with the steel industry's growth plan boosting sentiment. The short - term trend of the rebar futures market is expected to be narrow - range consolidation. The iron ore market has a complex situation of supply - demand, and the ore price is expected to fluctuate in a narrow range. The coking coal and coke markets are expected to have wide - range fluctuations in the short term due to factors such as supply - demand and cost. The manganese silicon and ferrosilicon markets are expected to follow the overall trend of the black commodities due to limited fundamental drivers [1][3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Steel**: The rebar futures price on September 23, 2025, showed a strong and volatile trend. The closing price of the rebar 2601 contract was 3185 yuan/ton, up 13 yuan/ton (0.41%) from the previous trading day, with a decrease of 109,000 lots in positions. The spot price was stable with an increase, and the trading volume recovered. The national building materials inventory decreased by 1.63% to 518.39 million tons, and the hot - rolled coil inventory increased by 1.74% to 224.59 million tons. The steel industry's growth plan boosted market sentiment, and it is expected that the short - term rebar futures will be in narrow - range consolidation [1]. - **Iron Ore**: The main contract i2601 of iron ore futures showed a volatile trend on September 23, 2025, closing at 808.5 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan/ton (0.12%) from the previous trading day, with a trading volume of 410,000 lots and a decrease of 12,000 lots in positions. The supply side showed a decline in shipments from Australia and Brazil, while the demand side saw an increase in molten iron production and a decline in steel mill profitability. With multiple factors at play, the ore price is expected to fluctuate in a narrow range [1]. - **Coking Coal**: On September 23, 2025, the coking coal futures price declined. The closing price of the coking coal 2601 contract was 1217.5 yuan/ton, down 14.5 yuan/ton (1.18%), with a decrease of 7023 lots in positions. The supply side saw an increase in production at coal mines, and the demand side showed an increase in demand from coking enterprises. However, due to the general profit situation of coking and steel enterprises, it is expected that the short - term coking coal futures will have wide - range fluctuations [1]. - **Coke**: On September 23, 2025, the coke futures price declined. The closing price of the coke 2601 contract was 1718 yuan/ton, down 20.5 yuan/ton (1.18%), with a decrease of 489 lots in positions. The supply side faced rising costs of coking coal, and the demand side saw an increase in demand from some steel mills. But due to the poor profitability of steel mills, the short - term coke futures are expected to have wide - range fluctuations [1]. - **Manganese Silicon**: On September 23, 2025, the manganese silicon futures price showed a weakening trend. The main contract was reported at 5870 yuan/ton, down 1.84% from the previous day, with an increase of 5304 lots in positions to 339,800 lots. The current weekly output of manganese silicon is still high, and the demand side has limited drivers. The cost and inventory sides have little change, so it is expected to follow the overall trend of black commodities [1]. - **Ferrosilicon**: On September 23, 2025, the ferrosilicon futures price showed a weakening trend. The main contract was reported at 5648 yuan/ton, down 2.01% from the previous day, with a decrease of 11,755 lots in positions to 200,000 lots. The production of ferrosilicon is at a relatively high level, and the demand side has weak drivers. Although the cost of raw materials has increased, the inventory is still high. Therefore, it is expected to follow the overall trend of black commodities [3]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - The report provides data on contract spreads, basis, and spot prices of various black commodities such as rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese silicon, and ferrosilicon, as well as data on profits and spreads between different varieties [4]. 3.3 Chart Analysis - **Main Contract Prices**: The report presents the closing price trends of main contracts of rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese silicon, and ferrosilicon from 2020 to 2025 [6][7][10][15]. - **Main Contract Basis**: The report shows the basis trends of rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese silicon, and ferrosilicon [17][18][21][23]. - **Inter - period Contract Spreads**: The report displays the spread trends between different contracts of rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese silicon, and ferrosilicon [26][31][32][33][36][37]. - **Inter - variety Contract Spreads**: The report presents the spread trends between different varieties such as main contract hot - rolled coil and rebar, rebar and iron ore, rebar and coke, etc [41][43][45]. - **Rebar Profits**: The report shows the profit trends of rebar main contracts such as disk profit, long - process profit, and short - process profit [46][50]. 3.4 Black Research Team Member Introduction - The report introduces the members of the black research team, including their positions, work experience, and relevant qualifications [52][53].

Group 1: Investment Ratings - The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating. Group 2: Core Views - Silicon iron and manganese silicon are subject to disturbances in the silicon - based sector and are in a weak and volatile state [1]. - The trend strength of silicon iron and manganese silicon is - 1, indicating a weak outlook [4]. Group 3: Summary by Directory Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: For silicon iron, the closing prices of SiFe2511 and SiFe2601 are 5648 and 5644 respectively, down 88 and 92 from the previous trading day. The trading volumes are 281,849 and 83,330, and the open interests are 200,009 and 105,097. For manganese silicon, the closing prices of MnSi2511 and MnSi2601 are 5850 and 5870 respectively, down 80 and 94. The trading volumes are 172,673 and 335,892, and the open interests are 103,885 and 339,805 [1]. - **Spot Data**: The price of silicon iron FeSi75 - B in Inner Mongolia is 5350 yuan/ton, silicon manganese FeMn65Si17 in Inner Mongolia is 5730 yuan/ton, manganese ore Mn44 block is 40.0 yuan/ton - degree, and the price of semi - coke small materials in Shenmu is 710 yuan/ton, up 60.0 yuan/ton from the previous day [1]. - **Price Spreads**: The spot - 11 futures spread of silicon iron is - 298 yuan/ton, up 88; the spot - 01 futures spread of manganese silicon is - 140 yuan/ton, up 80. The SiFe2511 - SiFe2601 spread is 4 yuan/ton, up 4; the MnSi2511 - MnSi2601 spread is - 20 yuan/ton, up 4. The MnSi2511 - SiFe2511 spread is 202 yuan/ton, up 8; the MnSi2601 - SiFe2601 spread is 226 yuan/ton, down 2 [1]. Macro and Industry News - **Price Information**: On September 22, the price range of 72 silicon iron in different regions is 5200 - 5450 yuan/ton, and that of 75 is 5900 - 6050 yuan/ton. The FOB price of 72 is 1050 - 1070 dollars/ton, and 75 is 1100 - 1140 dollars/ton. The price range of 6517 silicon manganese in the north is 5700 - 5800 yuan/ton, and in the south is 5800 - 5850 yuan/ton [1]. - **Trade Data**: In August 2025, China's silicon manganese exports were 4592.948 tons, a 93.3% increase from July. The total exports from January to August were 21037.805 tons. The imports in August were 2373.259 tons, similar to July, and the total imports from January to August were 9875.399 tons. The top ten export destinations of Chinese silicon iron in August 2025 include Japan (7862 tons), South Korea (7808 tons), etc. [1][3]. - **Procurement News**: Xinyu Iron and Steel set the silicon iron procurement price at 5800 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton from the previous round, with a quantity of 800 tons [4].

Report Overview - The report is the Commodity Research Morning Report - Black Series by Guotai Junan Futures on September 23, 2025, covering multiple commodities in the black series [1]. Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Views - Iron ore is expected to have repeated expectations and wide - range fluctuations [2][4]. - Rebar and hot - rolled coils show dull demand and wide - range fluctuations [2][6][7]. - Ferrosilicon and silicomanganese are affected by the silicon - based sector and show weak fluctuations [2][11]. - Coke and coking coal have repeated expectations and wide - range fluctuations [2][15][16]. - Logs fluctuate repeatedly [2][18]. Summary by Commodity Iron Ore - **Fundamentals**: The futures price of l2601 was 807.5 yuan/ton, up 7.5 yuan or 0.94%. The spot prices of imported ores such as Carajás fines, PB fines, etc. increased. The basis and spreads showed some changes [4]. - **News**: The US Federal Reserve cut the federal funds rate target range by 25 basis points to 4.00% - 4.25% on September 17 [4]. - **Trend Intensity**: 0, indicating a neutral trend [4]. Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coils - **Fundamentals**: For rebar RB2601, the closing price was 3,185 yuan/ton, up 27 yuan or 0.85%. For hot - rolled coil HC2601, it was 3,380 yuan/ton, up 18 yuan or 0.54%. There were changes in production, inventory, and apparent demand [7][8]. - **News**: Steel production, inventory, and demand data were released on September 18. In August 2025, national steel production data and steel import and export data were also provided [8][9]. - **Trend Intensity**: 0 for both rebar and hot - rolled coils, indicating a neutral trend [9]. Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - **Fundamentals**: Futures prices of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese decreased. Spot prices and various spreads showed different changes [11]. - **News**: Price ranges of ferrosilicon 72 and 75 in different regions on September 22 were reported. Import and export data of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese in August 2025 were also provided [11]. - **Trend Intensity**: - 1 for both, indicating a weak trend [14]. Coke and Coking Coal - **Fundamentals**: Futures prices of JM2601 and J2601 increased. Spot prices and basis showed changes [16]. - **News**: The US Federal Reserve cut the federal funds rate target range by 25 basis points to 4.00% - 4.25% on September 17 [16]. - **Trend Intensity**: 0 for both, indicating a neutral trend [17]. Logs - **Fundamentals**: Futures prices of different contracts showed little change. Spot prices of various log types in different markets were mostly stable [19]. - **News**: The US Federal Reserve cut the federal funds rate target range by 25 basis points to 4.00% - 4.25% on September 17 [21]. - **Trend Intensity**: 0, indicating a neutral trend [21].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - Not provided in the given content Summary by Relevant Catalogs Price - For silicon ferroalloy, prices vary by region and type, e.g., Ningxia 72 natural block is 5380 with a daily change of 30 and a weekly change of 100; Tianjin 72 export price is 1025 USD with no daily or weekly change. For silicon manganese, Inner Mongolia 6517 factory - ex price is 5730 with a weekly change of 50 [1]. - Multiple price charts for different types of silicon ferroalloy and silicon manganese from 2021 - 2025 are presented, including market prices, contract closing prices, and basis prices [2][6]. Supply - 136 silicon ferroalloy enterprises' production data in China is presented, including monthly and weekly production, and capacity utilization in Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, and Shaanxi from 2021 - 2025. Silicon manganese production in China is also shown on a weekly basis from 2021 - 2025 [4][6]. Demand - Indicators related to demand such as China's estimated and actual crude steel production, metal magnesium production and prices, silicon ferroalloy and silicon manganese procurement volume and price of Hebei Iron and Steel Group, and silicon manganese demand in China are presented from 2021 - 2025 [4][7]. Inventory - Inventory data of silicon ferroalloy and silicon manganese are provided, including inventory of 60 sample enterprises in different regions, warehouse - receipt quantity, effective forecast, and inventory average available days from 2021 - 2025 [5][7]. Cost and Profit - Cost - related data like electricity prices in different regions, market prices of raw materials such as semi - carbonated manganese ore and manganese blocks, and profit - related data such as production profit of silicon ferroalloy and silicon manganese in different regions from 2021 - 2025 are presented [5][7].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that the recent significant decline in ferroalloy futures, particularly manganese silicon and silicon iron, is driven by a combination of high supply and weakening demand expectations from steel mills [1][2] - Analysts highlight that the previous price increases were primarily driven by "anti-involution" logic and expectations of reduced supply, supported by macroeconomic factors such as domestic policies and interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [1][2] - Current market conditions show a concerning fundamental outlook, with steel prices under pressure, leading to expectations of reduced iron output and lower electric furnace operating rates [2][3] Group 2 - Manganese silicon inventory has been rising rapidly, with the latest data showing an increase to 198,900 tons, while silicon iron inventory remains stable [2] - Despite the increase in manganese silicon inventory, production has decreased to 208,800 tons, indicating potential pressure on inventory levels if demand does not improve [2] - The cost support for manganese and silicon iron remains strong, with manganese ore prices showing slight increases, suggesting limited downside potential for prices in the near future [3]

Core Viewpoint - The recent significant decline in ferroalloy futures, particularly in manganese silicon and silicon iron, is driven by changes in supply and demand dynamics, with high supply and weak demand expectations leading to price drops [1][3]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The previous price increase in ferroalloy futures was primarily driven by "anti-involution" logic and expectations of reduced supply, supported by macroeconomic factors such as domestic policies and interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [3]. - Current market sentiment has shifted, with high supply continuing while expectations of reduced production from steel mills and weak terminal demand are rising, leading to a decline in ferroalloy prices [3][4]. - The ferroalloy industry is characterized by overcapacity, and while prices had previously risen due to cost factors and expectations of production cuts, no significant reduction policies have been implemented recently [3]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Analysis - Manganese silicon inventory has increased rapidly, with 63 companies reporting a stock of 198,900 tons as of September 19, up by 32,100 tons week-on-week, although this remains within normal ranges compared to previous years [4]. - Silicon iron inventory has also remained stable, with 60 companies reporting a decrease from 70,000 tons to 63,300 tons, indicating a simultaneous decline in apparent demand [4]. - The overall production profit has improved, maintaining high output levels despite the pressure on demand, with expectations of reduced steel production potentially leading to negative feedback for ferroalloy prices [4][5]. Group 3: Future Price Expectations - The market still holds expectations for demand during the "golden September and silver October" period, while cost support remains strong, particularly for manganese ore prices, which have not seen significant declines [5]. - Factors such as high import concentration of manganese ore and potential disruptions from overseas labor strikes or natural disasters could lead to price increases, limiting the downside for manganese ore prices [5]. - Both manganese silicon and silicon iron are expected to have limited price decline potential, with forecasts suggesting a wide fluctuation range of 5,600 to 5,950 yuan per ton in the fourth quarter [5].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core Views of the Report - **成材**: Short - term outlook is oscillating with a slight upward bias, but the upside is limited. The trading logic is mainly based on industry fundamentals, with the price of finished steel showing signs of recovery, yet the weak downstream demand may constrain the price rebound [9]. - **煤焦**: In the short - term, there is an increase in both supply and demand. The downstream is actively replenishing inventory before the National Day holiday, which supports the confidence in price support. The futures market is expected to maintain a wide - range oscillation [10]. - **铁合金**: Silicon manganese and ferrosilicon continue to face a situation of strong supply and weak demand, with pressure on inventory. However, the short - term restocking demand before the National Day holiday may support prices. It is expected that prices will be in a weak consolidation state [11]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 01. Weekly Market Review - **Futures and Spot Prices**: From September 12 to September 19, 2025, most black commodity futures and spot prices increased. For example, the futures price of coke J2601 rose from 1625.5 to 1738.5, a 6.95% increase, and the spot price of Rizhao Port's quasi - first - grade coke increased from 1390 to 1500, a 7.91% increase [7]. 02. This Week's Black Market Forecast - **成材** - **Logic**: The blast furnace utilization rate and daily hot metal output of 247 steel mills increased, while the average capacity utilization rate and average operating rate of 90 independent electric arc furnace steel mills decreased. The finished steel rebounded last week, but the weak downstream situation remains unchanged. The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology has set an average annual growth target of about 4% for the steel industry in the next two years [9]. - **View**: Short - term oscillation with a slight upward bias. - **Future Focus**: Macroeconomic policies and downstream demand. - **煤焦** - **Logic**: The Fed cut interest rates by 25bp last week, and the futures price of coal and coke oscillated with an upward bias. On the spot side, coal prices in Shanxi rebounded slightly, and some coke enterprises in Inner Mongolia planned to raise prices. The environmental protection policy in Tangshan affected market sentiment, but the overall rigid demand for raw materials remained strong [10]. - **View**: Short - term supply and demand both increase, and the market will maintain a wide - range oscillation. - **Future Focus**: The resumption process of coal, coke, and steel production and changes in imported coal clearance. - **铁合金** - **Logic**: Overseas, the Fed cut interest rates by 25bp. Domestically, the market has entered the traditional peak season, but demand is still weaker than expected. On the supply side, the output and operating rate of silicon manganese decreased slightly, while those of ferrosilicon remained stable. On the demand side, the weekly demand for silicon manganese and ferrosilicon of the five major steel types decreased for three consecutive weeks. On the inventory side, silicon manganese inventory increased significantly, while ferrosilicon inventory decreased. The cost of silicon manganese and ferrosilicon has certain support [11]. - **View**: Prices are expected to be in a weak consolidation state. - **Future Focus**: Domestic macro - policies, terminal demand, steel mill profits, production, and domestic production restrictions. 03. Variety Data - **成材** - **螺纹钢**: Last week, the output was 206.45 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 5.48 tons; the apparent demand was 210.03 tons, a week - on - week increase of 11.96 tons. The total inventory was 650.28 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 3.58 tons [13][20]. - **热轧**: Last week, the output was 326.49 tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.35 tons; the apparent demand was 321.82 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 4.34 tons. The total inventory was 377.99 tons, a week - on - week increase of 4.67 tons [24][29]. - **基差**: The basis of rebar and hot - rolled coil in different regions and delivery months showed different changes, such as the 1 - month basis of rebar in Shanghai being 88 yuan/ton last Friday, a week - on - week decrease of 5 yuan/ton [32]. - **煤焦** - **焦炭**: The total inventory last week was 915.2 tons, a week - on - week increase of 8.99 tons. The independent coke enterprise inventory was 66.4 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.4 tons [47]. - **焦煤**: The total inventory last week was 2550.09 tons, a week - on - week increase of 66.68 tons. The independent coke enterprise inventory was 940.4 tons, a week - on - week increase of 56.9 tons [55]. - **Other Data**: Data such as the profit per ton of coke for independent coke enterprises, inventory availability days, and the ratio of coke to coking coal prices also showed corresponding changes [63][67]. - **铁合金** - **Spot Prices**: The spot price of manganese ore in Tianjin Port, silicon manganese, and ferrosilicon all increased last week. For example, the spot price of silicon manganese in Inner Mongolia (6517) increased from 5650 to 5730 yuan/ton [79]. - **Inventory**: The port inventory of manganese ore increased. The inventory of silicon manganese increased significantly, while the inventory of ferrosilicon decreased [81][92]. - **Output and Demand**: The output of silicon manganese decreased slightly, while the output of ferrosilicon remained stable. The demand for both silicon manganese and ferrosilicon decreased for three consecutive weeks [83][89]. - **Import and Production**: In July, the import of manganese ore was 274.35 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.23%. In August, the production of silicon manganese was 90.93 tons, a month - on - month increase of 10.94% [96].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content found. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Steel prices are expected to fluctuate before the National Day, with limited upward and downward space. The upper limit is restricted by demand and the lack of substantial reduction in supply, while the lower limit is supported by macro - expectations and restocking [3]. - Iron ore prices are expected to move sideways. The downward space is limited by restocking and high hot - metal production, but the upward space is constrained by demand and high shipping volumes, resulting in a weak price trend [21]. - For coal and coke, downstream restocking has improved the inventory structure of coking coal, and coke's second - round price cut has been fully implemented. However, the high supply pressure of steel and high inventory will limit the rebound height of coal and coke prices [35]. - The term structure of ferroalloys has gradually improved, which is beneficial for short - term price increases. The trading logic for the long - term is based on the anti - involution expectation, and the downward space is limited [51]. - The supply pressure of soda ash in the long - run remains high. Although the export in August was better than expected, the overall pattern of strong supply and weak demand remains unchanged [63]. - Glass prices lack a clear trend. The high inventory in the upper and middle reaches and weak real - world demand limit the price, while the supply in the fourth quarter may have unexpected reductions [90]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - **Futures Prices and Spreads**: On September 22, 2025, the closing price of rebar 01 contract was 3185 yuan/ton, and that of hot - rolled coil 01 contract was 3380 yuan/ton. The spreads between different contracts remained relatively stable compared to September 19 [4]. - **Spot Prices and Basis**: The rebar summary price in China on September 22 was 3323 yuan/ton, and the 01 rebar basis in Shanghai was 95 yuan/ton. The hot - rolled coil summary price in Shanghai was 3430 yuan/ton, and the 01 hot - rolled coil basis in Shanghai was 50 yuan/ton [7][9]. - **Ratio Data**: The ratios of 01 rebar/01 iron ore and 01 rebar/01 coke were both stable at 4 and 2 respectively from September 19 to September 22 [17]. Iron Ore - **Price Data**: On September 22, 2025, the closing price of the 01 iron ore contract was 808.5 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 1 yuan. The basis of the 01 contract was - 8.5 yuan/ton [22]. - **Fundamental Data**: As of September 19, the daily average hot - metal output was 241.02 tons, the 45 - port inventory was 13801.08 tons, and the global shipping volume was 3324.8 tons [28]. Coal and Coke - **Market Outlook**: Downstream restocking has improved the inventory structure of coking coal, and the second - round price cut of coke has been fully implemented. However, the high supply pressure of steel will limit the rebound height of coal and coke prices [35]. - **Price Data**: On September 22, 2025, the coking coal warehouse - receipt cost (Tangshan Mongolian 5) was 1144 yuan/ton, and the coking coal main - contract basis (Tangshan Mongolian 5) was - 74.0 yuan/ton [39]. Ferroalloys - **Market Situation**: The term structure of ferroalloys has improved, which is beneficial for short - term price increases. The long - term trading logic is based on the anti - involution expectation, and the downward space is limited [51]. - **Data for Ferrosilicon and Ferromanganese**: For ferrosilicon on September 22, 2025, the basis in Ningxia was - 36 yuan, and the spot price in Ningxia was 5480 yuan/ton. For ferromanganese on September 19, the basis in Inner Mongolia was 116 yuan, and the spot price in Inner Mongolia was 5730 yuan/ton [51][55]. Soda Ash - **Market Outlook**: The long - term supply of soda ash remains high. Although the export in August was better than expected, the pattern of strong supply and weak demand remains unchanged [63]. - **Price Data**: On September 22, 2025, the closing price of the soda ash 05 contract was 1384 yuan/ton, with a daily decrease of 23 yuan and a daily decline rate of 1.63% [64]. Glass - **Market Outlook**: Glass prices lack a clear trend. The high inventory in the upper and middle reaches and weak real - world demand limit the price, while the supply in the fourth quarter may have unexpected reductions [90]. - **Price Data**: On September 22, 2025, the closing price of the glass 05 contract was 1329 yuan/ton, with a daily decrease of 14 yuan and a daily decline rate of 1.04% [91].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information regarding the report industry investment rating is provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The steel market is expected to be volatile and slightly stronger in the short - term. With the approaching peak season, if downstream demand recovers beyond expectations from late September to October, steel prices may rise further. The "15th Five - Year Plan" content will also affect the market. [3] - For coking coal and coke, the supply side has policy support, but the demand and profit of steel restrict the upside space of raw materials. In the short - term, it will be in a volatile adjustment phase, and in the medium - term, a strategy of buying on dips is recommended with caution about the upside space. [8][10] - Iron ore prices may face pressure at high levels. Although the market sentiment has improved in the short - term, the rapid decline in terminal demand in the third quarter may not be fully priced in. [11][13] - For ferrosilicon, supply is stable, demand is limited by steel de - stocking, and the cost side has short - term support. For ferromanganese, both supply and demand decline slightly, and the cost side has strong support, expected to oscillate at the bottom. [15][19] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - **Related Information**: Last week, the blast furnace ironmaking capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills was 90.35%, with daily hot metal output at 241.02 million tons. The average capacity utilization rate of 90 independent electric arc furnace steel mills was 54.35%. Shanghai's rebar price was 3250 yuan (+10), and Shanghai's hot - rolled coil was 3410 yuan (+10). [3] - **Logic Analysis**: The black sector was volatile and slightly stronger on the night of the 19th. Iron water production increased slightly last week, and the production of the five major steel products was divided. The demand is in the off - season, and the recovery is average. After the parade, the steel demand conforms to the seasonality. It is expected that hot metal production will remain high this week, and steel demand may improve next week. [3] - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral: Steel will maintain a volatile and slightly stronger trend; Arbitrage: Hold the long 1 - 5 spread and shrink the coil - rebar spread; Option: Buy out - of - the - money options of RB01. [6] Coking Coal and Coke - **Related Information**: Last week, the capacity utilization rate of 523 coking coal mines was 84.7%, with daily raw coal output at 190.0 million tons. The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 83.98%. The price of Rizhao Port's quasi - first - grade coke (wet quenching) was 1613 yuan/ton. [7][8] - **Logic Analysis**: The sentiment in the coking coal spot market has improved, and there is an expectation of price increases for coke. Future coal production may be restricted by policies, but imported coal can make up for some supply. Steel demand restricts the upside space of raw materials. [8] - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral: Short - term volatile adjustment, medium - term, buy on dips with caution about the upside; Arbitrage: Wait and see; Option: Wait and see; Spot - futures: Wait and see. [10] Iron Ore - **Related Information**: On September 22, a press conference on the achievements of the financial industry during the "14th Five - Year Plan" will be held. Last week, the inventory of imported iron ore at 47 ports was 14381.68 million tons, and the daily port clearance volume was 351.03 million tons. [11] - **Logic Analysis**: Iron ore prices were strong last week. The global iron ore shipment increased in the third quarter, mainly from Brazil. Terminal steel demand declined rapidly in the third quarter, and the price may face pressure at high levels. [11][13] - **Trading Strategy**: No trading strategy is provided in the given content. Ferrosilicon and Ferromanganese - **Related Information**: The total manganese ore inventory decreased by 24.15 million tons. The supply of ferrosilicon was stable, and the supply of ferromanganese decreased slightly. [15] - **Logic Analysis**: For ferrosilicon, supply is stable, demand is limited by steel de - stocking, and the cost side has support. For ferromanganese, both supply and demand decline slightly, and the cost side has strong support. [15][19] - **Trading Strategy**: Ferrosilicon: Unilateral: Hedge at high spot prices; Arbitrage: Wait and see; Option: Wait and see. Ferromanganese: Unilateral: Oscillate at the bottom; Arbitrage: Wait and see; Option: Sell straddle option combinations at high prices. [17][20]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - On September 22, 2025, ferroalloy futures prices rose and then fell. The silicon ferro - alloy (SF) main contract closed at 5648, down 1.53% with a decrease in positions, while the silicon manganese (SM) main contract closed at 5870, down 1.58% with an increase in positions [7]. - For SF, the spot price was stable with a slight increase on the 22nd. Supply was high with a slight decline in the sample enterprise's operating rate. Demand was supported by high iron - water production due to high steel billet exports. After the price decline, the valuation was not high and the cost was supportive, so short positions could be reduced or put options could be sold for protection [7]. - For SM, the manganese ore spot was stable on the 22nd, and the SM spot price was stable with a slight decline. Supply decreased but was still high compared to the same period in previous years. Demand was affected by the decline in rebar production. The manganese ore price was firm due to low port inventories. After the price decline, there was cost support, and short positions could also be reduced or put options could be sold for protection [7]. - The trading strategies were to reduce short positions or sell put options for single - side trading, to wait and see for arbitrage, and to sell put options for options trading [8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Information - **Futures Data**: The SF main contract had a closing price of 5648, a daily change of - 88, and a weekly change of - 52. The trading volume was 281,849 with a daily increase of 52,126, and the open interest was 211,764 with a daily decrease of 11,755. The SM main contract had a closing price of 5870, a daily change of - 94, and a weekly change of - 36. The trading volume was 335,892 with a daily increase of 169,079, and the open interest was 339,805 with a daily increase of 5304 [4]. - **Spot Data**: SF spot prices were stable with a slight increase in some regions, rising 30 - 250 yuan/ton. SM spot prices were stable with a slight decline in some regions, falling 20 yuan/ton [4][7]. - **Basis/Spread Data**: The basis and spreads of SF and SM showed different daily and weekly changes. The SF - SM spread was - 222, with a daily change of 6 and a weekly change of - 16 [4]. - **Raw Material Data**: Manganese ore prices in Tianjin were stable with small weekly changes. Lanthanum semi - coke prices in some regions increased [4]. Market Judgement - **Trading Strategies**: Unilateral trading: Reduce short positions or sell put options due to low valuation. Arbitrage: Wait and see. Options: Sell put options [8]. - **Important Information**: The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and other departments issued a plan to set the average annual growth target of the steel industry's added value at about 4% from 2025 - 2026, and required over 80% of steel production capacity to complete ultra - low emission transformation by the end of 2025. In August 2025, China's steel billet exports reached 1.76 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 12% and a year - on - year increase of 230%. From January to August, the cumulative steel billet exports were 9.24 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 292% [9]. Relevant Attachments - Multiple charts showed the trends of ferroalloy main contracts, spreads, basis, spot prices, electricity prices, production costs, and profits [10][15][17][22].