2025 年 10 月 23 日 商 品 研 究 棕榈油：产地去库缓慢，关注下方支撑 豆油：南美产情偏好，关注中美经贸关系 | | | 【基本面跟踪】 油脂基本面数据 | | 棕榈油主力 | 单 位 元/吨 | 收盘价 (日盘） 9,164 | 涨跌幅 -1.40% | 收盘价 （夜盘） 9,080 | 涨跌幅 -0.92% | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 豆油主力 | 元/吨 | 8,238 | -0.68% | 8,204 | -0.41% | | | 菜油主力 | 元/吨 | 9,834 | -0.30% | 9,738 | -0.98% | | 期 货 | 马棕主力 | 林吉特/吨 | 4,452 | -1.24% | 4,423 | -0.74% | | | CBOT豆油主力 | 美分/磅 | 50.02 | -1.24% | | | | | | 单 位 | 昨日成交 | 成交变动 | 昨日持仓 | 持仓变动 | | | 棕榈油主力 | 手 | 637,846 | 84307 | 346,365 | 12,688 | | | 豆油主 ...

2025年10月23日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-农产品 观点与策略 | 棕榈油：产地去库缓慢，关注下方支撑 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 豆油：南美产情偏好，关注中美经贸关系 | 2 | | 豆粕：盘面反弹 | 4 | | 豆一：震荡 | 4 | | 玉米：震荡运行 | 6 | | 白糖：区间震荡 | 7 | | 棉花：期货反弹基差偏弱 | 8 | | 鸡蛋：弱势震荡 | 10 | | 生猪：短期屠宰、肥标及二育情绪共振 | 11 | | 花生：关注现货 | 12 | 商 品 研 究 棕榈油：产地去库缓慢，关注下方支撑 豆油：南美产情偏好，关注中美经贸关系 | | | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 商 品 研 究 2025 年 10 月 23 日 【基本面跟踪】 油脂基本面数据 | | 棕榈油主力 | 单 位 元/吨 | 收盘价 (日盘） 9,164 | 涨跌幅 -1.40% | 收盘价 （夜盘） 9,080 | 涨跌幅 -0.92% | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 豆油主 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Oils and Fats**: Bearish outlook, with palm oil, rapeseed oil, and soybean oil expected to oscillate weakly [2][5] - **Protein Meals**: Expected to oscillate, with soybean meal and rapeseed meal in a sideways trend [5] - **Corn and Starch**: Expected to oscillate, with a short - term bearish and long - term bullish outlook [6][7] - **Hogs**: Expected to oscillate weakly, presenting a pattern of "weak reality + strong expectation" [8] - **Natural Rubber**: Expected to oscillate and consolidate [11] - **Synthetic Rubber**: Expected to oscillate at a low level, with a possibility of hitting a new low for the year [12] - **Cotton**: Expected to oscillate, with a price range of 13100 - 13800 yuan/ton in the fourth quarter [13][15] - **Sugar**: Expected to oscillate weakly, with a recommendation of selling on rebounds [16] - **Pulp**: Expected to oscillate weakly, dominated by warehouse receipts and weak supply - demand [18] - **Offset Paper**: Expected to oscillate, with support at the bottom during the tender season [19][20] - **Logs**: Expected to oscillate, with opportunities to go long on dips in the 01 contract in the short term [21] 2. Core Views of the Report - **Oils and Fats**: Due to profit - taking, US soybeans and soybean oil fell on Tuesday, causing domestic oils and fats to decline. The Malaysian palm oil inventory may continue to build up, and factors such as the smooth planting of Brazilian soybeans and the seasonal decline in Indian vegetable oil imports increase the downward pressure on oils and fats [5]. - **Protein Meals**: Internationally, US soybeans are affected by Sino - US trade relations, with a low - level rebound. Domestically, there is a short - term expectation of increased US soybean imports, and the supply pressure is high. In the long term, the supply of soybean meal in the fourth quarter of 2025 is expected to be sufficient, while there may be a small shortage in the first quarter of 2026 [5]. - **Corn and Starch**: The spot price increase has slowed down, and the futures price has declined slightly. In the short term, it is expected to oscillate weakly, and in the long term, the market is expected to be short - term bearish and long - term bullish [6][7]. - **Hogs**: The slaughter progress has accelerated, and the rebound momentum has slowed down. In the short term, the supply is abundant, and in the long term, the supply pressure is expected to ease in the second half of 2026 [8]. - **Natural Rubber**: It is in an oscillating and consolidating state. The recent rebound is a temporary oversold rebound, and the supply pressure is not significant for the time being. The demand is expected to decline in the fourth quarter [11]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: The futures price has returned to a narrow - range oscillation. The high production this year and the high social inventory are the main pressures. The raw material price has shown some support after a decline [12]. - **Cotton**: The purchase price has continued to rise slightly, boosting the cotton price. The estimated cotton production in Xinjiang has been revised down, and the short - term downward driving force is weakened, but there is a risk of correction after the rise [13]. - **Sugar**: The external market has continued to decline, and the weak pattern is difficult to change. In the long - term, the global sugar market is expected to have a surplus in the 25/26 season, and the sugar price is in a bear market [16]. - **Pulp**: The spot trading is light, and the futures price is running at a low level. The supply - demand fundamentals are difficult to support a significant rise, and the warehouse receipts have a negative impact on the futures price [18]. - **Offset Paper**: Tenders are gradually starting, and there is support at the bottom. The market is currently in a low - activity state, and the cost support is general [19][20]. - **Logs**: There is a game on the information side, and the price is oscillating. The special port fee issue is under implementation, and the market is in a weak state due to factors such as weak demand and inventory build - up [21]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Views - **Oils and Fats**: Affected by profit - taking and the possible build - up of Malaysian palm oil inventory, the price is under pressure. The macro environment and industrial factors are complex, with factors such as the US government shutdown, Sino - US trade negotiations, and the production and export of soybeans and palm oil having an impact [5]. - **Protein Meals**: Internationally, US soybeans are affected by Sino - US trade and South American competition. Domestically, the short - term supply pressure is high, and the long - term supply situation varies. The demand for soybean meal is expected to be stable or increase slightly [5]. - **Corn and Starch**: The spot price increase has slowed, and the futures price has declined. The short - term supply pressure is not fully released, and the long - term inventory is expected to be tight [6][7]. - **Hogs**: The short - term supply is abundant, and the demand is in the off - season. In the long term, the supply pressure is expected to ease with the reduction of sow capacity [8]. - **Natural Rubber**: The recent rebound is an oversold one. The supply pressure is not significant, and the demand is expected to decline in the fourth quarter [11]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: The high production and inventory are the main pressures, and the raw material price has shown some support [12]. - **Cotton**: The estimated production has been revised down, and the purchase price has risen, driving the price up. There is a risk of correction in the fourth quarter [13]. - **Sugar**: The long - term supply is expected to be in surplus, and the short - term external market is weak. The internal market is relatively resistant to decline but may face downward pressure in the future [16]. - **Pulp**: The supply - demand fundamentals are weak, and the warehouse receipts have a negative impact on the futures price [18]. - **Offset Paper**: Tenders are starting, and there is support at the bottom. The market activity is low, and the cost support is general [19][20]. - **Logs**: The special port fee issue is affecting the market, and the demand is weak with inventory build - up [21]. 3.2 Variety Data Monitoring - The report lists various varieties including oils and fats, protein meals, corn, starch, cotton, sugar, pulp, offset paper, and logs, but no specific data monitoring details are provided in the non - omitted content [23][42][55]. 3.3 Rating Standards - The rating standards include "bullish", "oscillating bullishly", "oscillating", "oscillating bearishly", and "bearish", with the time period being the next 2 - 12 weeks and the standard deviation calculated as 1 - time standard deviation = 500 - trading - day rolling standard deviation / current price [176]. 3.4 Commodity Index - **Comprehensive Index**: The comprehensive index, specialty index (including commodity 20 index and industrial products index), and sector index (agricultural products index) are presented, with their respective values and changes [178][180].

Group 1: Market Overview - Domestic oilseed futures have shown a weak oscillating trend since October, with soybean oil futures maintaining a range of 8200 to 8400 yuan/ton due to policy expectations [1] - The domestic supply of soybean oil is relatively ample, with inventory at a medium to high level, which suppresses the upward price potential [1] - International soybean oil prices remain firm, and the slowdown in domestic oil mill crushing pace provides some support for soybean oil prices [1] Group 2: U.S. Soybean Export Challenges - The U.S. government shutdown and escalating U.S.-China trade tensions have weakened the influence of U.S. soybeans in the global pricing system, leading to a reduced impact on China's imported soybean costs [2] - From October to December, China is expected to maintain zero purchases of U.S. soybeans, relying on imports from Brazil and Argentina to fill the supply gap [2] - The decoupling of U.S. soybean pricing from Chinese imports is evident, with the pricing model now dominated by Brazilian soybean premiums and the exchange rate of the yuan [2] Group 3: Weather Predictions and Production Estimates - The U.S. Climate Prediction Center forecasts a 71% probability of La Niña weather from October to December, which may increase drought risks in major soybean-producing regions like Brazil and Argentina [3] - The Rosario Grain Exchange predicts Argentina's soybean production for the 2025/2026 season to be 47 million tons, lower than the USDA's previous estimate of 48.5 million tons [3] Group 4: Supply Adequacy - Prior to the National Day holiday, domestic purchases of Argentine soybeans increased due to a temporary cancellation of export taxes, covering the supply gap for the first quarter of next year [4] - In September, Argentina announced a reduction of the soybean export tax from 26% to zero, prompting Chinese buyers to secure at least 130,000 tons of soybean orders within a few days [4] - China's soybean imports in September reached 12.87 million tons, with imports from Brazil at 10.96 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 29.8%, while no U.S. soybeans were imported for the first time since November 2018 [4] Group 5: Current Market Dynamics - The oilseed market currently lacks a clear direction, with stable supply and limited news impact, resulting in oscillating futures prices [5] - The recent procurement of Argentine soybeans is sufficient to meet the first-quarter demand, thus limiting the impact of U.S.-China trade negotiations on soybean prices [5] - The soybean oil market remains unchanged, with oil mills operating normally and inventory pressures persisting, leading to a lack of significant price drivers [5]

Group 1: Commodity Market Overview - Chicago futures market saw an overall increase in corn, wheat, and soybean prices on October 22, with corn December contract closing at $4.23 per bushel, up 3.25 cents (0.77%) from the previous trading day [1] - Wheat December contract closed at $5.04 per bushel, up 3.5 cents (0.7%), while soybean November contract closed at $10.35 per bushel, up 4 cents (0.39%) [1] - The market is currently experiencing a tug-of-war between bulls and bears, with the upcoming APEC meeting in South Korea and a potential meeting between US and Chinese trade leaders being key focal points [1] Group 2: Agricultural Production and Weather Impact - In Brazil, soybean planting completion rate in Paraná state reached 52% this week, expected to rise to 65-70% by the weekend, while Mato Grosso state is projected to reach 56-60% completion by October 24 [1] - The US corn yield is anticipated to be between $180-184 per ton, with favorable weather conditions for crop growth in South America from late October to early November [1] - The US Energy Information Administration reported that ethanol production for the week ending October 17 was 327 million gallons, a 3% increase year-on-year, marking the third highest in history [2] Group 3: Market Trends and Recommendations - Recent analysis suggests that the market rebound should be viewed as an opportunity to sell [1] - The US gasoline daily consumption was reported at 8.45 million barrels, a 4% decrease compared to the same period last year [2] - Weather forecasts indicate strong rainfall affecting parts of Mato Grosso state from October 29 to 30, followed by regular tropical rainfall across Brazil [2]

Group 1 - ICE raw sugar futures decreased by 0.73% while ICE white sugar futures increased by 0.42% [1] - ICE Arabica coffee futures rose by 2.51%, and coffee "C" futures increased by 2.22% [1] - Robusta coffee futures saw a rise of 2.84% [1] - New York cocoa futures surged by 6.93%, reaching $6,326 per ton, continuing a day-long upward trend [1] - London cocoa futures increased by 8.34% [1] Group 2 - The Ghanaian Minister of Agriculture announced plans to significantly increase local cocoa processing to enhance the added value of export products [1] Group 3 - ICE cotton futures fell by 1.20% [1]

Group 1 - The U.S. soybean futures market is experiencing a long-awaited upward trend, driven by optimism surrounding U.S.-China trade relations and unexpectedly strong export data, pushing prices to a one-month high [1][3]. - Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) soybean futures saw a significant rebound, with the benchmark contract closing up 1.2%, marking the highest level in over a month, and trading volume for November contracts increased to 163,000 lots, indicating heightened market participation [1][3]. - President Trump's recent statements regarding trade negotiations have positively impacted the soybean market, expressing confidence in reaching an agreement with China and prioritizing the restoration of U.S. soybean purchases [3]. Group 2 - Strong fundamental data supports the price increase, with the USDA's weekly export inspection report showing soybean export inspections reaching levels far exceeding market expectations as of the week ending October 16 [5]. - Despite U.S. soybean export volumes being significantly lower than the previous year, analysts note that performance has been stronger than anticipated, attributed to increased demand from other regions [6]. - Seasonal pressure is easing as the U.S. soybean harvest nears completion, providing a rebound opportunity for the market, although long-term pressure from expanding South American supply remains a concern [8]. Group 3 - The strong performance of soybean crushing demand provides additional support for the soybean market, with December soybean meal futures also benefiting from rising South American meal premiums, opening short-term opportunities for U.S. meal exports [12]. - Domestic crushing demand in the U.S. has remained robust, with the National Oilseed Processors Association (NOPA) reporting higher-than-expected crushing volumes, reflecting strong domestic demand for soybeans [14]. - The future direction of U.S. soybean prices will largely depend on whether optimistic sentiments from trade negotiations translate into actual orders from China, while record production expectations from Brazil pose a looming threat to market prices [15].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The US corn report has lowered the yield, but the production remains high, causing the US corn price to decline. It may continue to adjust the yield downward, and the US corn is expected to trade in a narrow range. China has imposed a 15% tariff on US corn, resulting in a 26% tariff within the quota, and a 22% tariff on US sorghum. Despite this, the import profit of foreign corn is relatively high. The domestic corn market shows different trends in different regions, with the spot price in the Northeast being strong and that in North China being weak. The wheat price in North China is strong, and the price difference between wheat and corn has widened, making corn more cost - effective. However, the short - term increase in wheat price is limited due to the rumored wheat auction. The domestic livestock farming demand remains stable, and the inventory of downstream feed enterprises is low. Some enterprises are building inventory in the Northeast, keeping the corn spot price relatively stable in the short term. New - season corn pressure has eased, and the Northeast corn spot price has rebounded, but there may be selling pressure in Jilin at the end of October [4][6]. - In the starch market, the number of vehicles arriving at Shandong deep - processing plants has increased, leading to a weakening of the corn spot price in Shandong. The starch price in Shandong is around 2,760 yuan, and the Northeast starch spot price is stable. The corn starch inventory has decreased this week. The starch price mainly depends on the corn price and downstream stocking. The by - product price is strong, and the enterprise is profitable due to the significant decline in corn price. The 01 starch futures contract is trading in a narrow range following the corn price. As the North China corn price may still decline by the end of October, the corn starch spot price will also fall, but the futures contract has no profit, so it is expected to trade in a narrow range in the short term [7]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 First Part: Data - **Futures Market**: Corn futures contracts C2601, C2605, and C2509 decreased by 0.52%, 0.45%, and 0.57% respectively, with closing prices of 2,133, 2,239, and 2,274. Their trading volumes decreased by 7.76%, 29.23%, and increased by 40.60% respectively, and open interests increased by 0.47%, 2.99%, and 25.14% respectively. Corn starch futures contracts CS2601 and CS2605 decreased by 0.12% and 0.04% respectively, while CS2509 increased by 0.31%. Their trading volumes decreased by 36.56%, 6.42%, and 20.00% respectively, and open interests increased by 0.51%, 3.00%, and decreased by 1.09% respectively [2]. - **Spot and Basis**: The spot price of corn in Zhucheng Xingmao is 2,340 yuan, while in Qinggang it is 1,970 yuan, up 5 yuan. The basis of corn in different regions ranges from - 304 to 66. The spot price of starch in different enterprises is between 2,650 - 2,920 yuan, and the basis ranges from 101 - 371 [2]. - **Spreads**: The spreads of corn and starch contracts show different changes. For example, the C01 - C05 spread of corn is - 123, down 1, and the CS09 - C09 spread between starch and corn is 338, up 21 [2]. 3.2 Second Part: Market Outlook - **Corn**: The US corn market is affected by yield adjustments and tariff policies. In the domestic market, the price of northern port corn is stable, the Northeast corn spot price is strong, and the North China corn price is weak due to increased supply. The wheat price in North China is strong, and the livestock farming demand is stable. The corn spot price is expected to be relatively stable in the short term, but there may be selling pressure at the end of October [4][6]. - **Starch**: The starch price is mainly influenced by the corn price and downstream stocking. The inventory has decreased this week, and the by - product price is strong. The enterprise is profitable. The 01 starch futures contract is expected to trade in a narrow range following the corn price, and the spot price may decline as the North China corn price falls [7]. - **Trading Strategies**: The US corn is expected to trade in a narrow range. The North China corn price is in a bottom - oscillating state, and the Northeast corn may rebound in the short term. It is recommended to exit the long positions of 01 or 05 corn futures and wait for a pull - back, and to adopt a wait - and - see approach for arbitrage [8]. 3.3 Third Part: Corn Options The recommended option strategy is a short - term strategy of accumulating put and call options with rolling operations [11]. 3.4 Fourth Part: Related Graphs The report provides graphs showing the spot price of corn in different regions, the basis and spreads of corn and corn starch futures contracts over different time periods, which help in analyzing the price trends and market relationships of corn and corn starch [13][15][19].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report The report provides a comprehensive analysis of various commodities, including their current market conditions, influencing factors, and trading strategies. It assesses the supply - demand dynamics, macro - economic impacts, and geopolitical events affecting each commodity. Overall, different commodities are expected to have diverse price trends, with some facing downward pressure due to supply surpluses or weakening demand, while others may experience upward movement supported by demand or supply - side constraints. Summary by Commodity Categories Agricultural Products 1. Soybean Meal - The supply pressure of international soybeans remains high, and domestic soybean meal is also expected to decline due to increased supply pressure. The recommendation is to wait and see on a single - side basis, conduct M11 - 1 positive spreads for arbitrage, and sell call options [17]. 2. Sugar - International sugar prices are in a weak trend with the downward - opened space after breaking the previous low. Domestic sugar is expected to follow the external market. The strategy is to short at high prices on a single - side basis and conduct short ICE US raw sugar and long domestic Zhengzhou sugar for arbitrage [21]. 3. Oilseeds and Oils - The palm oil market may see a slight inventory build - up in October. Domestic soybean oil may gradually reduce inventory, and rapeseed oil may continue to reduce inventory marginally. The recommendation is to wait and see on a single - side basis and consider going long on dips [25]. 4. Corn/Corn Starch - The US corn may continue to narrow - range fluctuate in the short - term. Domestic new - crop corn supply is increasing, and the spot price has a downward space. The suggestion is to go long on dips for the 12 - contract US corn, hold long positions for the 01 - contract domestic corn, and wait for dips to go long for the 05 and 07 contracts [29]. 5. Live Pigs - The slaughter pressure has improved, and the spot price has a phased rebound. However, the overall supply pressure still exists. The strategy is to wait and see on a single - side basis and sell wide - straddle options [31]. 6. Peanuts - Peanut production may be affected by rainfall, and the 01 - contract peanut may fluctuate strongly in the short - term but overall remains at the bottom. The recommendation is to go long on dips for the 01 and 05 contracts and sell pk601 - P - 7600 options [34]. 7. Eggs - The inventory reduction is slow, and egg prices are expected to fluctuate weakly. The suggestion is to short at high prices on a single - side basis and close out previous short positions to take profits [39]. 8. Apples - The high - quality fruit rate is poor, and the price is expected to fluctuate slightly stronger. The strategy is to go long on a single - side basis, conduct long November and short January for arbitrage [42]. 9. Cotton - Cotton Yarn - The new cotton acquisition is accelerating. The market may face selling - hedging pressure with the large - scale listing of new cotton. The demand improvement is limited. The recommendation is that the US cotton may fluctuate, and domestic cotton may fluctuate slightly stronger. Hold cross - market positive spreads and consider cross - period positive spreads after domestic inventory decline [46]. Ferrous Metals 1. Steel - The demand pressure persists, but the steel price has a lower valuation and some support. It is expected to fluctuate within a range. The suggestion is to maintain the range - bound strategy on a single - side basis and go long on the spread between hot - rolled coil and rebar at low prices for arbitrage [49]. 2. Coking Coal and Coke - The coking coal supply is tight, but the steel mill demand is not strong. It is expected to fluctuate within a range. The recommendation is to go long on dips on a single - side basis [52]. 3. Iron Ore - The market expectation is weak, and the fundamentals have changed. The supply has increased while the demand has decreased. It is recommended to take a bearish view in the medium - term on a single - side basis [54]. 4. Ferroalloys - The steel procurement for ferroalloys is weak. Both ferrosilicon and ferromanganese are expected to fluctuate at the bottom. The strategy is to wait and see on a single - side basis and sell out - of - the - money straddle option combinations [58]. Non - Ferrous Metals 1. Precious Metals - Due to the loosening of previous positive factors, gold and silver prices have dropped significantly. It is recommended to wait and see [62]. 2. Copper - The macro - environment has changed, and the supply - side disturbances have increased. The consumption is average but has some resilience. The recommendation is to go long on dips on a single - side basis and hold cross - market positive spreads [64]. 3. Alumina - The supply - side is showing marginal changes, and the price is expected to grind at a low level. It is recommended to focus on the supply - side changes on a single - side basis [69]. 4. Electrolytic Aluminum - The macro - factors are the main drivers. The consumption has some resilience. The suggestion is to go long on dips on a single - side basis [75]. 5. Cast Aluminum Alloy - The macro - panic has improved, and the cost is supported. The price is expected to be strong. The recommendation is to go long on dips on a single - side basis [80]. 6. Zinc - The domestic supply is increasing, and the overseas market has some support. It is recommended to wait and see [83]. 7. Lead - The supply is gradually recovering, and the price may decline. The suggestion is to hold previous short positions and add short positions at high prices [89]. 8. Nickel - The inventory is increasing, indicating an oversupply. The price is under pressure. The recommendation is to short at the upper limit of the shock range on a single - side basis and sell wide - straddle option combinations [90]. 9. Stainless Steel - The demand is weak, and the price is testing the cost support. It is expected to fluctuate weakly. The strategy is to wait and see on a single - side basis [94]. Other Commodities 1. Industrial Silicon - The demand from polysilicon may decline in November, and the price is under short - term pressure. It is recommended to wait for sufficient dips on a single - side basis [95]. 2. Polysilicon - The supply - demand balance will improve in November. It is recommended to buy at dips on a single - side basis, hold reverse spreads for the 2511 and 2512 contracts, and adjust the option strategy [98]. 3. Lithium Carbonate - The demand is strong, and the supply has risks. The price is expected to strengthen. The suggestion is to go long on a single - side basis and sell out - of - the - money put options [99]. 4. Tin - The macro - sentiment has cooled down, and the price is consolidating around the integer level. The market is cautious, and the demand recovery is not good [103]. 5. Shipping - The spot price of container shipping continues to rise, and attention should be paid to the progress of China - US negotiations [12]. 6. Energy and Chemicals - Different energy and chemical products have various trends. For example, crude oil is temporarily stable, while some products like PX & PTA and ethylene glycol face supply - demand changes and price fluctuations. Specific trading strategies are provided for each product based on their supply - demand and market conditions [14].

Group 1: Overall Investment Ratings - All three commodities (cotton, sugar, and pulp) are rated neutral [3][8] Group 2: Core Views - For cotton, short - term prices may weaken due to new cotton listing,增产 expectations, and weak demand, but long - term prices are optimistic due to low initial inventory and consumption resilience [2][3] - For sugar, short - term prices may follow the external market, and long - term prices are bearish due to global surplus expectations [3][5] - For pulp, the fundamental improvement is insufficient, and short - term prices are expected to remain in low - level oscillations, with attention on the actual implementation of fourth - quarter demand [7][8] Group 3: Cotton Market News and Key Data - Futures: The closing price of cotton 2601 contract was 13,540 yuan/ton, up 75 yuan/ton (+0.56%) [1] - Spot: Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B cotton was 14,586 yuan/ton, up 34 yuan/ton; national average price was 14,728 yuan/ton, up 49 yuan/ton [1] - Import: In September 2025, China imported 9.5 tons of cotton, a 31.16% increase from the previous month and an 18.67% decrease from the same period last year. In the first nine months of 2025, imports were 68.5 tons, a 69.82% decrease from the same period last year [2] Market Analysis - International: Due to the US government shutdown, key data was postponed, and the new - year global cotton market is expected to be loose. The short - term external market is under pressure [2] - Domestic: Cotton de - stocking is fast, and the new - year market starts with low inventory. The purchase price of seed cotton has stabilized, limiting the decline of cotton prices [2] Strategy - Neutral. Short - term prices may weaken, but long - term prices are optimistic after seasonal pressure [3] Group 4: Sugar Market News and Key Data - Futures: The closing price of sugar 2601 contract was 5438 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton (+0.18%) [3] - Spot: The spot price in Nanning, Guangxi was 5770 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Kunming, Yunnan was 5740 yuan/ton, unchanged [3] - Export: Brazil exported 233.46 tons of sugar and molasses in the third week of October, a 2.68% decrease from the same period last year [3] Market Analysis - Zhengzhou sugar futures rose during the day and fell at night following the external market. Brazilian supply is strong, suppressing raw sugar prices, but there is support from the ethanol price [4][5] - In China, short - term supply is sufficient, but the increase in production in the new season may be less than expected [5] Strategy - Neutral. Short - term prices may follow the external market, and long - term prices are bearish [3][5] Group 5: Pulp Market News and Key Data - Futures: The closing price of pulp 2511 contract was 5170 yuan/ton, up 14 yuan/ton (+0.27%) [5] - Spot: The price of Chilean silver star softwood pulp in Shandong was 5600 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Russian softwood pulp was 4970 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton [5] Market Analysis - Supply: Overseas softwood pulp mills have announced price increases, production cuts, and conversion plans, but the actual impact on supply is limited, and domestic port inventory remains high [7] - Demand: Weak demand in Europe, the US, and China is the main factor suppressing pulp prices. The traditional peak season has not seen large - scale restocking [7] Strategy - Neutral. Pulp prices are expected to oscillate at a low level, and attention should be paid to the actual implementation of fourth - quarter demand [8]