Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View The report presents the daily data of iron ore futures and spot markets on November 3, 2025, including price changes, basis, spreads, import profits, and other information. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - **Futures Prices**: DCE01 was 782.5, down 17.5 from yesterday; DCE05 was 760.5, down 16.0; DCE09 was 740.5, down 14.5 [2]. - **Inter - month Spreads**: I01 - I05 was 22.0, down 1.5; I05 - I09 was 20.0, down 1.5; I09 - I01 was - 42.0, up 3.0 [2]. Spot Market - **Spot Prices**: PB powder (60.8%) was 797, down 1; Newman powder was 800, down 2; etc. [2]. - **Basis**: The basis of the optimal delivery product (McFadden powder) for 01 contract was 56, 79 for 05 contract, and 101 for 09 contract [2]. - **Spot Spreads**: The spread of Carajás powder - PB powder was 110, down 5; Newman powder - Jinbuba powder was 48, up 1; etc. [2]. - **Import Profits**: The import profit of Carajás powder was 9, up 1; Newman powder was 6, down 2; etc. [2]. Indexes - **Platts Indexes**: The price of Platts 62% iron ore was 107.4, down 0.3; 65% was 120.7, down 0.5; 58% was 95.7, down 0.6 [2]. - **Internal - External US Dollar Spreads**: SGX main - DCE01 was 8.0, up 0.2; SGX main - DCE05 was 10.9, up 0.2; SGX main - DCE09 was 13.7, up 0.3 [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Supply has a growth expectation, while demand continues to weaken under the suppression of steel enterprises' profits, and the overall fundamentals are relatively weak, leading to a weakening trend in iron ore prices. The current iron ore futures price fluctuates within the previous trading range, and it is necessary to observe whether there are signs of improvement in steel enterprises' profits and the support level of the lower limit of the previous trading range. Considering that the current rebar - iron ore ratio is at a historically low level, one can consider the arbitrage strategy of "going long on rebar and short on iron ore" to increase the rebar - iron ore ratio [4][6][69]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Market Review - **Iron ore futures main contract**: In October, the iron ore futures 2601 contract showed a wide - range volatile trend. It opened at 782.0 yuan/ton on October 9, then quickly declined, reached the monthly low of 760.0 yuan/ton on October 21, and then rebounded rapidly, hitting the monthly high of 810.5 yuan/ton on October 30. As of the close on October 31, it rose 19.5 yuan/ton or 2.50% from the September 30 closing price of 780.5 yuan/ton to 800 yuan/ton [5][12][13]. - **Rebar - iron ore ratio**: In October, the rebar - iron ore ratio (rebar main futures price / iron ore main futures price) generally showed a trend of "slight decline - volatile increase - decline again". It started to decline slightly from 3.9165 on October 9, reached the monthly low (also the lowest level in the past 10 years for the main contract ratio) of 3.8322 on October 13, then rose rapidly to the monthly high of 3.9700 on October 20, and then declined again. As of October 31, the ratio was 3.8825, down 0.0340 from the beginning of the month [15][16]. 3.2 Macroeconomic Environment Analysis 3.2.1 International Macroeconomic Analysis - **Sino - US tariff game**: Before the end of September, the Sino - US trade situation was generally easing, and a preliminary agreement was reached on the TikTok issue. However, in early October, the game between the two sides escalated unexpectedly. The US introduced a series of measures, and China counterattacked. In the middle of the month, the US attitude softened, and the two sides agreed to hold a new round of economic and trade consultations. At the end of the month, the two heads of state met in Busan, South Korea, and reached consensus on multiple issues. Although the negotiation results sent positive signals, the market weakened after the positive news was realized [18][20][21]. - **Fed's interest rate decision**: On October 30, the Fed cut the federal funds rate target range by 25 basis points to 3.75% - 4.00%, which was in line with market expectations, and announced the end of balance - sheet reduction on December 1. After the meeting, Powell's statement was interpreted as slightly hawkish, and the probability of a December interest rate cut declined, causing short - term fluctuations in gold and US stocks [22]. 3.2.2 Domestic Real Estate Analysis - **Sales data**: From January to September, the cumulative year - on - year growth rates of commercial housing sales area and sales volume were - 5.5% and - 7.9% respectively, with the decline further expanding compared to the previous month. In September, the year - on - year decline of the second - hand housing sales price index in 70 large and medium - sized cities continued, with the decline in first - tier, second - tier, and third - tier cities narrowing by 0.3, 0.2, and 0.3 percentage points respectively compared to August [23][24]. - **Investment data**: From January to September, the national real estate development investment decreased by 13.9% year - on - year, with the decline expanding by 1 percentage point compared to the previous month, reaching the second - lowest level since March 2020. The decline in September further widened from 19.5% in August to 21.3%. The enthusiasm of real estate enterprises for development remained low, and the improvement of the real estate investment side still required a long wait [24]. 3.3 Fundamental Factor Analysis 3.3.1 Supply Side - **Imported ore**: In October, the iron ore shipment volume continued to increase slightly. As the end of the year approaches, the subsequent shipment volume is expected to remain at a relatively high level. The arrival volume in November is expected to fluctuate at a relatively high level, showing a trend of low in the front and high in the back. The combined shipment volume of Australia and Brazil in the past four weeks was 109.784 million tons, a 3.78% increase compared to the previous four - week period [31][32]. - **Domestic ore**: Since the beginning of the year, the domestic iron ore production has decreased year - on - year, but the decline has gradually narrowed. In October, the domestic mine capacity utilization rate first decreased and then increased, and it is expected to hover around 60% in the future. The 1 - 9 domestic iron ore production was 761 million tons, a 2.55% year - on - year decrease, with the decline narrowing by 0.9 percentage points compared to January - August [35]. 3.3.2 Inventory Side - **Port inventory**: As of October 31, the 45 - port inventory was 145.4248 million tons, an increase of 1.1889 million tons compared to the previous week. The port inventory has accumulated this month, mainly due to the slight increase in arrival volume and downstream production cuts. It is expected that the port inventory will continue to accumulate slightly [36]. - **Steel enterprise inventory**: As of the week of October 31, the average available days of imported iron ore inventory for steel mills was 21 days, an increase of 1 day compared to the previous week. After the holiday consumption, the steel mill inventory has returned to the original level of about 20 - 21 days, and the market has returned to the state of replenishing inventory on demand [46]. 3.3.3 Demand Side - **Production indicators**: As of October 31, the blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 81.75%, a decrease of 2.96 percentage points compared to the previous week; the blast furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate was 88.61%, a decrease of 1.33 percentage points compared to the previous week; the daily average hot metal output was 2.3636 million tons, a decrease of 35,400 tons compared to the previous week. In October, these indicators continued to decline, and the decline accelerated at the end of the month [47]. - **Steel product data**: The actual weekly output of the five major steel products in the week of October 31 increased by 99,700 tons compared to the previous week, and the consumption volume also increased. However, this data deviated from the hot metal data, and the sustainability of the increase needs to be observed. Considering the cold weather, the demand for construction steel may be suppressed [55][58]. 3.3.4 Steel Enterprise Profitability - **Profit rate**: As of the week of October 31, the profitability rate of 247 steel enterprises was 45.02%, a decrease of 2.6 percentage points compared to the previous week, and more than half of the sample enterprises were in a loss state [64]. - **Tons of steel profit**: In October, the average profits of rebar blast furnace, hot - rolled coil, cold - rolled coil, and rebar electric furnace decreased by 64.79, 106.93, 69.52, and 13.08 yuan/ton respectively compared to September, and all were in a loss state. The loss of rebar electric furnace was the largest, but there were signs of stabilization recently [64]. 3.4 Market Outlook - **Supply**: The shipments from Australia and Brazil have rebounded, and the arrival volume has increased after two weeks of low levels. It is expected that the shipment volume will remain at a relatively high level, and the arrival volume in November will fluctuate at a relatively high level. The first - ship iron ore from Simandou in Guinea is expected to be shipped in November, which may suppress the price of far - month iron ore contracts [68]. - **Demand**: The daily average hot metal output continues to decline, mainly due to the continuous narrowing of steel production profits. More than half of the steel enterprises are in a loss state, and it is expected that the hot metal output will continue to decline. The production and demand of the five major steel products have recovered, but the sustainability needs to be observed, and the demand for construction steel may be affected by the cold weather [68]. - **Inventory**: Steel mills are back in the state of replenishing inventory on demand, with the available days of inventory at a relatively low level of 20 - 21 days. The port inventory has continued to accumulate and is expected to continue to accumulate slightly [68]. - **Market strategy**: The overall fundamentals are relatively weak, and the iron ore price is expected to be weak. The current iron ore futures price lacks a clear trading logic and fluctuates within the previous range. One can observe the improvement of steel enterprises' profits and the support level of the lower limit of the previous range. Considering the low rebar - iron ore ratio, one can consider the arbitrage strategy of "going long on rebar and short on iron ore" [69].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - In October, iron ore prices fluctuated strongly, with mainstream spot prices rising between 2 - 25 yuan. The Platts 62% index closed at $107.4 on October 31, up $3.5 month - on - month. The optimal deliverable was NM powder, with a warehouse - receipt price of about 827 yuan/ton [6]. - China's 47 - port iron ore inventory increased compared to the previous period but was lower than the same period last year. It is predicted that the inventory at the 47 ports may increase in the next period [6]. - In terms of supply, the global iron ore shipment volume decreased, while the arrival volume at Chinese ports increased. In terms of demand, the daily average pig iron output of 247 sample steel mills decreased, and the loss range of steel mills continued to expand. It is expected that the pig iron output will fluctuate slightly at a high level in the next period [7][8]. - From a fundamental perspective, in October, the iron ore shipments remained at a seasonal high, and the supply pattern became looser. The pig iron output fluctuated at a high level and declined at the end of the month due to environmental protection restrictions in Hebei. In November, there is a possibility of a decline in pig iron output, and the supply - demand situation will weaken marginally. In terms of valuation, the recent spot and futures steel profits have continued to shrink. In November, attention should be paid to changes in pig iron output, and the main contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of $95 (756) - $105 (836) [9]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Fundamentals and Conclusions - **Price**: In October, iron ore prices fluctuated strongly, and different varieties had different price changes. The Platts 62% index rose month - on - month, and the optimal deliverable was NM powder [6]. - **Inventory**: The 47 - port iron ore inventory increased compared to the previous period but was lower than the same period last year. It is expected to increase in the next period [6]. - **Supply**: The global iron ore shipment volume decreased, with Australia and Brazil shipments down. The arrival volume at Chinese ports increased [7]. - **Demand**: The daily average pig iron output of 247 sample steel mills decreased. Some blast furnaces were shut down for maintenance, mainly due to environmental protection restrictions in Hebei and low profits in other regions. The loss range of steel mills expanded, and the pig iron output is expected to fluctuate slightly at a high level [8]. - **Conclusion**: The supply - demand situation will weaken marginally in November. Attention should be paid to changes in pig iron output, and the main contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of $95 (756) - $105 (836) [9]. 3.2 Data Combing - **Iron Ore Warehouse - Receipt Price**: The report lists the chemical indicators, quality premiums, brand premiums, spot prices, and warehouse - receipt prices of various iron ore varieties. The optimal deliverable is NM powder, and the sub - optimal is PB powder [14]. - **Iron Ore Inter - Period Spread**: As of October 31, the iron ore 1 - 5 spread closed at 23.5 (+3) [17]. - **Iron Ore Import Profit**: No specific data analysis provided. - **High - Low Grade Price Difference**: No specific data analysis provided. - **Premium Index**: As of October 30, the 62.5% lump ore premium index was 0.123 (- 0.0055), and the 65% pellet premium index was 17.75 (-) [27]. - **Brand Premium (Discount) and Inventory**: The report shows the inventory and premium (discount) trends of different iron ore brands such as Mac, PB, and JMB [29]. - **Steel Mill Sintered Ore Inventory**: The inventory of imported and domestic sintered ore of 64 sample steel mills decreased, while the average inventory days of imported ore increased [32]. - **Steel Mill Imported Ore Inventory and Consumption**: The inventory, daily consumption, and inventory - to - sales ratio of imported ore of 247 steel mills decreased [34]. - **Port Inventory and Berthing**: The report presents the trends of port total inventory, berthing ship numbers, and inventories of different ore sources (Australia, Brazil, etc.) [37]. - **Port Inventory by Ore Type**: The inventory of imported port lump ore decreased, while that of pellet ore, iron concentrate, and coarse powder increased [40]. - **Surcharge Volume**: The report shows the surcharge volume data from 2020 - 2025 [42]. - **Iron Ore Import Quantity**: The report presents the import volume data of the whole country, Australia, Brazil, South Africa, and other countries [44]. - **Australia Iron Ore Shipment Volume**: Australia's shipments to China and total shipments decreased, while the proportion of shipments to China increased [54]. - **Brazil Iron Ore Shipment Volume**: Brazil's shipments to the world increased slightly [59]. - **Four Major Mines Iron Ore Shipment Volume**: The total shipment volume of the four major mines decreased, with different changes for each mine [60]. - **Iron Ore Arrival Volume**: The arrival volume at 45 ports and northern ports increased significantly [67]. - **Freight Rate**: The report shows the freight rate trends from Brazil Tubarao to Qingdao and from Western Australia to Qingdao [69]. - **Domestic Ore Output (Estimated)**: The output and inventory of domestic iron concentrate increased slightly [72]. - **Steel Mill Ore Daily Consumption and Capacity Utilization**: The blast furnace capacity utilization rate and daily pig iron output of 247 steel mills decreased, as well as the daily consumption of imported and domestic sintered ore [73]. - **Pig Iron Output**: The daily average pig iron output data from the National Bureau of Statistics and the China Iron and Steel Association are presented, and the output of some regions has different growth and decline trends [79]. - **Global Pig Iron Output**: The report shows the pig iron output trends of the EU 28 countries, Japan, South Korea, India, and the world [82]. - **Global (Excluding China) Pig Iron Output**: The pig iron output of regions outside China decreased compared to the previous year, with different month - on - month and year - on - year changes [86].

数据来源第三方，观点仅供参考。市场有风险，投资需谨慎！ 备注：I：铁矿石 研究员: 蔡跃辉 期货从业资格号F0251444 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0013101 免责声明 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告 不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形 式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 铁矿石产业链日报 2025/11/3 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | I 主力合约收盘价（元/吨） | 782.50 | -17.50↓ I 主力合约持仓量(手) | 534,930 | -5350↓ | | | I 1-5合约价差（元/吨） | 22 | -1.50↓ I 合约前20名净持仓(手) ...

Group 1: Steel Industry Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View Steel apparent demand has recovered, especially for plate products, and the inventory of five major steel products is decreasing. The main focus in the later stage is on coking coal. Considering the positive macro - environment, the prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil are expected to be supported at 3000 yuan and 3200 yuan respectively. Upward momentum requires continuous increase in apparent demand or production cuts on the supply side. The price ranges for rebar and hot - rolled coil are 3000 - 3200 yuan and 3200 - 3400 yuan respectively. When prices rise to the upper limit of the range, long positions can be partially closed, and the arbitrage strategy of long coking coal and short hot - rolled coil can be continued [2]. Summary by Directory - **Steel Prices and Spreads**: Rebar and hot - rolled coil prices in different regions and contracts have different degrees of decline. Costs and profits vary, with some profit margins decreasing and some increasing. For example, the price of steel billets decreased by 20 yuan, and the profit of East China hot - rolled coil decreased by 27 yuan [2]. - **Production and Inventory**: The daily average pig iron output increased by 3.5 to 239.9 tons, a 1.5% increase. The output of five major steel products increased by 10.0 to 875.3 tons, a 1.2% increase. The inventory of five major steel products decreased by 41.1 to 1513.7 tons, a 2.6% decrease [2]. Group 2: Iron Ore Industry Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View Last week, iron ore fluctuated and rose. The supply side shows that the global iron ore shipment volume increased, and the arrival volume at 45 ports decreased significantly. The demand side indicates that the steel mill's profit margin declined, and the pig iron output decreased due to environmental protection restrictions in Tangshan. The inventory at ports continued to accumulate, and the demand for restocking by steel mills weakened. After the iron ore rebounded, the driving force weakened. The strategy is to close long positions and turn to a wait - and - see approach, with the price range referring to 760 - 830 yuan, and the recommended arbitrage strategy is the iron ore 1 - 5 positive spread [4]. Summary by Directory - **Iron Ore - related Prices and Spreads**: The warehouse receipt costs of various iron ore powders decreased slightly, and the basis and spreads of different contracts also changed. For example, the warehouse receipt cost of Carajás fines decreased by 7.7 to 836.3 yuan, a 0.9% decrease [4]. - **Supply and Demand**: The global iron ore shipment volume increased by 54.9 to 3388.4 tons, a 1.6% increase, and the arrival volume at 45 ports decreased by 490.3 to 2029.1 tons, a 19.5% decrease. The daily average pig iron output of 247 steel mills decreased by 3.5 to 236.4 tons, a 1.5% decrease [4]. - **Inventory Changes**: The port inventory increased by 231.3 to 14542.48 tons, a 1.6% increase, and the imported ore inventory of 247 steel mills decreased by 229.3 to 8849.9 tons, a 2.5% decrease [4]. Group 3: Coking Coal and Coke Industry Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View Last week, coking coal futures fluctuated and rose, and the spot auction prices in Shanxi were strong. The coal market is in a tight supply - demand pattern. The short - term fluctuations do not affect the bullish view in the fourth quarter. The strategy is to go long on coking coal 2601 at low prices, with the price range referring to 1200 - 1350 yuan, and the arbitrage strategy is long coking coal and short coke. For coke, the futures also fluctuated and rose last week, and the third - round price increase by coke enterprises is expected to be implemented. The strategy is to go long on coke 2601 at low prices, with the price range referring to 1700 - 1850 yuan, and the arbitrage strategy is also long coking coal and short coke [7]. Summary by Directory - **Coking Coal and Coke - related Prices and Spreads**: The prices and spreads of coking coal and coke contracts changed. For example, the coking coal 01 contract decreased by 10 to 1787 yuan, a 0.54% decrease, and the coke 01 contract was at 1777 yuan [7]. - **Supply and Demand**: The production of coking coal decreased in some areas due to safety and environmental protection reasons. The coke production remained stable, and the pig iron output decreased. The demand for coke is affected by the decline in pig iron output [7]. - **Inventory Changes**: The total coke inventory increased by 8.1 to 900.0 tons, a 0.9% increase. The coking coal inventory in different sectors also changed, with some increasing and some decreasing [7].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Views of the Report - The overall market is affected by various factors such as the Fed's attitude, domestic PMI data, and policy expectations. Different asset classes show different trends, with short - term volatility and varying degrees of risk and opportunity [2][3] - For commodities, different sectors like black metals, non - ferrous metals, energy chemicals, and agricultural products have their own supply - demand situations and price trends, which are influenced by both macro and micro factors [4][8][12][17] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Macro Finance - Overseas, the dollar index is strengthening due to Powell's hawkish attitude, and global risk appetite is cooling. Domestically, the October PMI is 49.0%, down 0.8% from last month, indicating a slowdown in economic growth. Policy stimulus expectations are increasing. Index futures are expected to fluctuate in the short term, and government bonds may rebound slightly. For commodities, black, non - ferrous, and energy - chemical sectors may fluctuate, while precious metals may correct at high levels [2] Stock Index - Affected by sectors such as insurance, semiconductors, and small metals, the domestic stock market continued to decline. The weakening PMI data dampened market sentiment, but policy stimulus expectations may boost risk appetite. Short - term caution and wait - and - see are recommended [3] Precious Metals - The precious metals market rose on Friday night. The Fed's hawkish attitude and strong dollar index led to an overall shock adjustment of spot gold. In the short term, precious metals may fluctuate, but the medium - to - long - term upward trend remains. Short - term wait - and - see and medium - to - long - term buying on dips are advised [3] Black Metals - **Steel**: The spot market was flat last Friday, and the futures price declined slightly. Real demand is improving marginally, and speculative demand has also increased. However, steel mill profits are being compressed, and environmental restrictions may reduce supply. The short - term market is expected to fluctuate within a range [4][5] - **Iron Ore**: The spot price fell slightly last Friday, while the futures price strengthened. Macro expectations and reduced arrivals led to a recent rebound. But steel mill profits are low, and iron ore supply pressure is large. The price is expected to fluctuate in the short term [5] - **Silicon Manganese/Silicon Iron**: The spot price was flat last Friday, and the futures price declined slightly. The demand for ferroalloys is acceptable. The supply of silicon manganese decreased slightly, and the price of silicon iron raw materials was stable. The futures price is expected to continue to fluctuate in a range [6] - **Soda Ash**: The futures contract fluctuated last week. Supply is increasing, and there are capacity expansion plans in the fourth quarter. Demand is stable. The supply - side contradiction is the core factor suppressing the price, and a bearish view is recommended [7] - **Glass**: The futures contract fluctuated last week. Supply was stable, demand was weak, and inventory was high. Supported by policies, it may be slightly stronger in the short term, and the demand during the year - end completion peak needs attention [7] Non - Ferrous Metals and New Energy - **Copper**: The macro - environment has weakened. The Fed's attitude and China's PMI data are not optimistic. US copper inventories are high, and domestic de - stocking is not as expected. However, the suspension of an Indonesian copper mine may support the price, and it is expected to fluctuate at a high level in the short term [8] - **Aluminum**: The price reached a one - year high last Friday and then declined. The Fed's attitude and market sentiment affected the price. The fundamentals changed little, and overseas and domestic de - stocking was not as expected [8] - **Tin**: The smelting start - up rate is at a high level, and the supply is expected to increase. The demand is still weak, and the high price suppresses consumption. The price is expected to fluctuate at a high level in the short to medium term [9] - **Lithium Carbonate**: The production decreased slightly, and the price of raw materials increased. The supply and demand are both strong, and the inventory is decreasing. Due to rumors and hedging pressure, light - position wait - and - see is recommended [10] - **Industrial Silicon**: The production reached a new high. Supply pressure comes from Xinjiang, and demand is stable. The price is expected to fluctuate, and buying on dips is recommended [10][11] - **Polysilicon**: The inventory decreased significantly, and the number of warehouse receipts increased. The policy expectation and weak reality are in a stalemate. The price is expected to fluctuate in a high - level range, and buying on dips is recommended [11] Energy Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: The market is concerned about the lack of significant transfer of Asia - Pacific procurement after Russian oil sanctions. OPEC+ is increasing production, but geopolitical risks may cause a short - term rebound. The long - term price is expected to be bearish [12] - **Asphalt**: The cost support is weakening, and the price is falling. The inventory is being reduced, but the demand is approaching the off - season. The supply pressure is temporarily reduced, but the future trend depends on the rebound of crude oil [12] - **PX**: The crude oil price is fluctuating weakly. PTA's high start - up rate provides some demand support. The PXN spread has rebounded slightly, and the price is mainly driven by crude oil costs [13] - **PTA**: The downstream start - up rate has increased slightly, and the basis has improved. But the supply is still high, and the inventory accumulation pressure is large in November [13] - **Ethylene Glycol**: The port inventory has decreased, but the arrival volume is high. The inventory accumulation pressure is large in November, and the price is testing the previous low [13] - **Short Fiber**: It fluctuates with the polyester sector in the short term, but the pressure is large in the later period. Terminal orders are decreasing seasonally, and the inventory is accumulating [14][15] - **Methanol**: The market shows regional differentiation. The port inventory is decreasing slightly, while the inland inventory is increasing. The price may decline in the short term but is expected to enter a consolidation phase later [15] - **PP**: The supply growth rate is higher than the demand recovery rate, and the inventory is high. However, the demand is improving marginally, and the crude oil price provides some cost support. The price is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term [15] - **LLDPE**: The supply pressure is increasing, and the demand is expected to weaken after the peak in early November. The crude oil price provides limited support, and the price is expected to be under pressure [16] - **Urea**: The supply is expected to increase, and the demand is weakening. The export is expected to remain at a low level [16] Agricultural Products - **US Soybeans**: The Sino - US trade window may open, and China's purchase plan may lead to an increase in export expectations. If the yield is further reduced, the cost - repair logic will be strengthened, and the price may continue to rise [17] - **Soybean and Rapeseed Meal**: The domestic soybean supply is sufficient, and the supply of soybean meal is abundant. The improvement of Sino - US trade relations may increase the cost of imported soybeans but reduce the risk of supply shortage. The spread between soybean and rapeseed meal is expected to widen [17] - **Palm Oil**: It has entered a technically oversold stage. Although there was over - production in October, the price may be supported by the increase in international oil and crude oil prices, and the seasonal de - stocking trend remains [18][19] - **Soybean and Rapeseed Oil**: Affected by the decline of palm and rapeseed oil, the price may continue to weaken. It is in the consumption season, and the high inventory of rapeseed oil is being reduced [19] - **Corn**: The pressure of wet grain sales is decreasing, and the spot price is stable. The futures price is weak, but the bottom - range support may be effective [19] - **Pigs**: The overall slaughter volume is expected to increase in November, and the profit is in a loss state. The pig price is unlikely to rebound significantly before the winter solstice in December [19]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the given content. 2. Core Views of the Report - The overall atmosphere in the commodity market was weak last Friday, with the prices of finished steel products showing a volatile trend. With the gradual implementation of the Fed's easing expectations and the positive signals released by the Sino-US summit, the market sentiment and capital environment are expected to improve. The steel consumption side may gradually recover in the future, but the demand is still weak in the short term [2]. - For the black sector, the report maintains a non - pessimistic view. It believes that finding callback positions to do rebounds may have higher cost - effectiveness than shorting. The current macro factors are more important price - influencing factors than the weak fundamentals [11]. - Regarding manganese silicon, if the black sector strengthens, pay attention to potential disturbances in the manganese ore end, which may drive the manganese silicon market. Otherwise, it is expected to follow the black sector's trend. Silicon iron is also likely to follow the black sector, with low operational cost - effectiveness [11]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Steel Products 3.1.1 Market Quotes - The closing price of the rebar main contract was 3106 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts were 124,240 tons, with no change. The main contract position was 1.87945 million lots, a decrease of 15,466 lots. The Tianjin aggregated price of rebar was 3190 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan/ton; the Shanghai aggregated price was 3230 yuan/ton, unchanged [1]. - The closing price of the hot - rolled coil main contract was 3308 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan/ton (- 0.30%). The registered warehouse receipts were 98,537 tons, a decrease of 298 tons. The main contract position was 1.470219 million lots, a decrease of 3067 lots. The Lecong aggregated price of hot - rolled coils was 3320 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 yuan/ton; the Shanghai aggregated price was 3330 yuan/ton, unchanged [1]. 3.1.2 Strategy Views - The supply and demand of rebar both increased, and the inventory continued to decline, showing a neutral performance overall. The demand for hot - rolled coils continued to recover, but the production was still high, and the inventory, although decreasing, remained at a relatively high level [2]. 3.2 Iron Ore 3.2.1 Market Quotes - The main contract of iron ore (I2601) closed at 800.00 yuan/ton, with a change of - 0.31% (- 2.50). The position changed by - 11,268 lots to 540,300 lots. The weighted position was 921,900 lots. The price of PB fines at Qingdao Port was 803 yuan/wet ton, with a basis of 54.36 yuan/ton and a basis rate of 6.36% [4]. 3.2.2 Strategy Views - On the supply side, the overseas iron ore shipment volume continued to increase, with Australia remaining flat, Brazil increasing, and non - mainstream countries slightly decreasing. The near - end arrival volume was at a low level this year. On the demand side, the average daily hot metal output decreased, the number of overhauled blast furnaces was much larger than that of restarted ones, and the steel mill profitability reached a new low this year. The port inventory continued to increase, and the steel mill inventory declined. The iron ore demand continued to weaken, and the inventory pressure remained [5]. 3.3 Manganese Silicon and Silicon Iron 3.3.1 Market Quotes - On October 31, the main contract of manganese silicon (SM601) closed down 1.20% at 5772 yuan/ton. The spot price of 6517 manganese silicon in Tianjin was 5700 yuan/ton, with a converted basis of 5890 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 yuan/ton compared with the previous day, and a premium of 118 yuan/ton over the futures [7]. - The main contract of silicon iron (SF601) closed down 0.90% at 5500 yuan/ton. The spot price of 72 silicon iron in Tianjin was 5530 yuan/ton, with a premium of 30 yuan/ton over the futures [9]. 3.3.2 Strategy Views - The fundamentals of manganese silicon are still not ideal and lack major contradictions. Potential drivers may come from the manganese ore end. Silicon iron's supply - demand fundamentals have no obvious contradictions and drivers and are likely to follow the black sector's trend [11]. 3.4 Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon 3.4.1 Market Quotes - The closing price of the main contract of industrial silicon (SI2601) was 9100 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.60% (- 55). The weighted contract position changed by - 16,059 lots to 408,543 lots. The spot price of non - oxygenated 553 in East China was 9300 yuan/ton, unchanged; the 421 market price was 9700 yuan/ton, unchanged, with a basis of - 200 yuan/ton for the main contract [13]. - The closing price of the main contract of polysilicon (PS2601) was 56,410 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.66% (+ 1460). The weighted contract position changed by + 9166 lots to 258,099 lots. The average price of N - type granular silicon was 50.5 yuan/kg, unchanged; the average price of N - type dense material was 51 yuan/kg, unchanged; the average price of N - type re - feeding material was 52.25 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.05 yuan/kg, with a basis of - 4160 yuan/ton for the main contract [16]. 3.4.2 Strategy Views - For industrial silicon, the supply - side pressure persists. Although the production in the southwest region is decreasing during the dry season, the production in the northwest region is increasing. The demand support is weakening. It is expected to fluctuate in the short term [14]. - For polysilicon, with some production capacity starting maintenance, the supply - demand pattern may improve marginally, but the short - term de - stocking amplitude is expected to be limited. The policy expectations have a strong impact on prices [17]. 3.5 Glass and Soda Ash 3.5.1 Market Quotes - The glass main contract closed at 1083 yuan/ton on Friday, a decrease of 0.73% (- 8). The price of large - size glass in North China was 1130 yuan, unchanged; the price in Central China was 1120 yuan, unchanged. The weekly inventory of float glass sample enterprises was 65.79 million cases, a decrease of 823,000 cases (- 1.24%) [19]. - The soda ash main contract closed at 1225 yuan/ton on Friday, a decrease of 0.81% (- 10). The price of heavy soda ash in Shahe was 1175 yuan, a decrease of 10 yuan. The weekly inventory of soda ash sample enterprises was 1.702 million tons, a decrease of 10,000 tons (- 1.24%), with the heavy soda ash inventory decreasing by 48,100 tons and the light soda ash inventory increasing by 48,000 tons [21]. 3.5.2 Strategy Views - For glass, the supply is loose, the enterprise inventory is accumulating, the demand recovery is slow, and the price is expected to remain weak. Attention should be paid to the production line operation in the Shahe area [20]. - For soda ash, affected by the weak glass market, the price is under pressure. The cost increase forms a certain bottom support, but the de - stocking process is slow. It is expected to continue a narrow - range shock in the short term [22].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating information is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - With the consensus on key economic and trade issues between China and the US, futures prices have declined. The apparent demand for rebar continued to rise last week, and rebar production also increased, but the total inventory decline was slow. The inventory of hot-rolled coils has far exceeded the same period after a significant increase. Coking coal and coke spot prices are running strongly, providing some support for costs. However, due to the significant decline in steel mill margins and the approaching end of the consumption peak season, steel mills are expected to reduce production in the future, which may trigger a phased negative feedback cycle. Technically, the futures prices of rebar and hot-rolled coils broke through the suppression of the upper 10-day moving average on the daily K-line chart and then pulled back. The market is likely to turn into a sideways trend in the future [2]. - In terms of iron ore, the sample steel mill's molten iron production decreased significantly on a month-on-month basis. Due to the decline in steel mill profits and the end of the consumption peak season, steel mills may continue to reduce production intentionally, putting pressure on raw material prices. On the supply side, global shipments are at a high level, and the increase in port inventories during the consumption peak season has a certain suppressing effect on futures prices. The slow destocking of steel inventories also dampens the overall market sentiment. With the realization of macro-level positive factors, futures prices face certain correction pressure [5]. Summary by Directory I. Rebar and Hot-Rolled Coils - **Price Data**: The closing price of the rebar steel main contract is 3,106 yuan/ton, up 60 yuan or 1.97% from last week; the closing price of the hot-rolled coil main contract is 3,308 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan or 0.30% from the previous day and up 58 yuan or 1.78% from last week. The spot price of rebar (HRB400E 20mm, Shanghai) is 3,230 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan or 0.94% from last week; the spot price of hot-rolled coils (Q235 4.75mm, Shanghai) is 3,330 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan or 1.22% from last week [3]. - **Production and Inventory**: The national building materials steel mill's rebar production is 212.59 million tons, up 5.52 million tons or 2.67% from last week; the hot-rolled coil production is 323.56 million tons, up 1.10 million tons or 0.34% from last week. The five major varieties of social inventory are 1,077.08 million tons, down 22.62 million tons or 2.06% from last week; the rebar social inventory is 430.81 million tons, down 6.67 million tons or 1.52% from last week; the hot-rolled coil social inventory is 328.93 million tons, down 8.64 million tons or 2.56% from last week [3]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Maintain a wait-and-see attitude, do not chase up or sell down, and consider buying on dips after a pullback [2]. II. Iron Ore - **Price Data**: The settlement price of the DCE iron ore main contract is 800 yuan/dry ton, up 29 yuan or 3.76% from last week; the settlement price of the SGX iron ore continuous contract is 106.79 US dollars/dry ton, down 0.26 US dollars or 0.24% from the previous day and up 2.61 US dollars or 2.51% from last week. The Platts 62% index is 107.7 US dollars/dry ton, up 2.55 US dollars or 2.43% from last week [5]. - **Supply and Demand Data**: Australian iron ore shipments are 1,721.6 million tons, down 7.9 million tons or 0.46% from last week; Brazilian iron ore shipments are 796.6 million tons, up 47.6 million tons or 6.36% from last week. The total arrival volume of the six northern ports is 1,095.9 million tons, down 107.3 million tons or 8.92% from last week; the average daily port clearance volume (total of 45 ports) is 331.22 million tons, up 9.15 million tons or 2.84% from last week [5]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Maintain a wait-and-see attitude and patiently wait for the price to pull back before buying on dips [5]. III. Industry News - The China Iron and Steel Association stated that in the first three quarters, the apparent consumption of crude steel nationwide was 649 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 5.7%. It is expected that the apparent consumption of crude steel for the whole year will decline for the fifth consecutive year. Overall, steel production and consumption are still showing a downward trend, with the decline in consumption greater than the decline in production [8]. - Li Chao, the deputy director of the Policy Research Office of the National Development and Reform Commission, stated at a press conference that as of October 27, the coal inventory of the national unified power plants was 220 million tons, which could be used for more than 35 days; the underground gas storage has completed the annual gas injection task and achieved full storage for the winter [8]. - According to Mysteel, it is predicted that the diffusion conditions in Tangshan will gradually improve, and the pollution process will basically end. The Tangshan Heavy Pollution Weather Response Command decided to lift the Class II emergency response for heavy pollution weather in the whole city from 0:00 on November 1, 2025 [8]. - According to the PMI of the steel industry surveyed and released by the Steel Logistics Professional Committee of the China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing, it was 49.2% in October 2025, a month-on-month increase of 1.5 percentage points, ending the continuous two-month month-on-month decline, and the industry operation has recovered [8]. - Mysteel statistics show that the total inventory of imported iron ore at 47 ports nationwide is 152.7293 million tons, a month-on-month increase of 1.6344 million tons; the average daily port clearance volume is 3.3122 million tons, an increase of 0.0915 million tons. The total inventory of imported iron ore at 45 ports nationwide is 145.4248 million tons, a month-on-month increase of 1.1889 million tons; the average daily port clearance volume is 3.2016 million tons, an increase of 0.0751 million tons; the number of ships at the port is 118, an increase of 11 [8]. - Mysteel statistics show that the blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills is 81.75%, a decrease of 2.96 percentage points from last week and a decrease of 0.69 percentage points from the same period last year; the average daily molten iron production is 2.3636 million tons, a decrease of 0.0354 million tons from last week [9].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View - The short - term and intraday view of Iron Ore 2601 is "shock and weak", and the medium - term view is "shock". It is recommended to pay attention to the support at the MA10 line. The core logic is that the fundamentals are poor and the ore price will decline with shocks [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Content Variety View Reference - For Iron Ore 2601, the short - term and intraday performance is "shock and weak", the medium - term is "shock". The view is to focus on the MA10 line support, due to poor fundamentals and the ore price's decline with shocks [2]. Market Driving Logic - The supply - demand pattern of iron ore has little change. Under the influence of production restrictions, the terminal demand for ore continues to decline, and the industrial contradictions in the steel market remain unresolved, so the ore demand is in a weak state. The arrival at domestic ports has dropped to a low level, but the shipments from overseas miners are high. According to the shipping schedule, the subsequent arrivals will increase. Coupled with the increase in domestic ore supply, the ore supply remains at a high level. Although there are some positive factors supporting the ore price to return to a high level, the high supply and weakening demand lead to poor fundamentals, and the over - valued ore price will face downward pressure under the dominance of the real - world logic. Attention should be paid to the performance of steel [3].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Demand side: Last week, there was a significant increase in steel mill maintenance, leading to a substantial adjustment in molten iron production. As the off - season approaches, molten iron production will be in a downward cycle. The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 81.75%, a decrease of 2.96 percentage points from the previous week and 0.69 percentage points from the same period last year. The daily average molten iron production was 2.3636 million tons, a decrease of 35,400 tons from the previous week and an increase of 8,900 tons from the same period last year [1][4][5]. - Supply side: Last week, overseas shipments increased week - on - week, while arrivals decreased. Shipments were at a high level, and the supply remained strong. The total global iron ore shipments were 3.3884 million tons, an increase of 54,800 tons week - on - week. The inventory of imported iron ore at 47 ports across the country was 152.7293 million tons, an increase of 1.6344 million tons week - on - week, and the daily average port clearance volume was 3.3122 million tons, an increase of 91,500 tons [1][5]. - Overall: In the short term, the impact of the macro - environment has weakened, and demand has marginally declined. It is expected that iron ore will show a volatile and pressured trend [1][5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Transaction Data | Contract | Closing Price | Change | Change Percentage (%) | Total Trading Volume (Lots) | Total Open Interest (Lots) | Price Unit | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | SHFE Rebar | 3046 | 9 | 0.30 | 5713284 | 2644571 | Yuan/ton | | SHFE Hot - Rolled Coil | 3250 | 46 | 1.44 | 2311059 | 1501678 | Yuan/ton | | DCE Iron Ore | 771.0 | 0.0 | 0.00 | 1404210 | 561141 | Yuan/ton | | DCE Coking Coal | 1248.5 | 69.5 | 5.89 | 5960825 | 939022 | Yuan/ton | | DCE Coke | 1757.5 | 81.5 | 4.86 | 116416 | 49180 | Yuan/ton | [2] Market Review - Futures market: Last week, iron ore futures fluctuated upwards. The Fed cut interest rates as expected, and an important consensus was reached on Sino - US tariffs. Supported by a warm macro - atmosphere, the futures market was strong. - Spot market: The price of PB powder at Rizhao Port was 783 yuan/ton, an increase of 5 yuan/ton week - on - week, and the price of Super Special powder was 705 yuan/ton, an increase of 2 yuan/ton week - on - week. The price difference between high - and low - grade PB powder and Super Special powder was 78 yuan/ton [4]. Industry News - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology solicited public opinions on the "Implementation Measures for Capacity Replacement in the Iron and Steel Industry (Draft for Comment)". It is proposed that in key areas, the total steel production capacity should not be increased, and the transfer of steel production capacity from non - key areas to key areas and between different key areas is prohibited. The capacity replacement ratio for iron - making and steel - making in each province (region, municipality) should not be less than 1.5:1. - On October 28, the suggestions for formulating the 15th Five - Year Plan for National Economic and Social Development were released, aiming to optimize and upgrade traditional industries. - The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points, lowering the federal funds rate to 3.75% - 4.00%, and announced the end of balance - sheet reduction starting from December 1. - The Ministry of Commerce introduced the consensus on the results of Sino - US economic and trade consultations. The US will cancel the 10% so - called "fentanyl tariff" on Chinese goods, and the 24% reciprocal tariff on Chinese goods will continue to be suspended for one year. The US will suspend the implementation of the 50% penetration rule for export controls and the Section 301 investigation measures against China's maritime, logistics, and shipbuilding industries for one year. China will adjust or suspend relevant counter - measures accordingly [9]. Relevant Charts The report includes multiple charts showing the trends of rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore futures and spot prices, basis, steel mill profits, steel production, inventory, and other aspects, with data sources from iFinD and Tongguan Jinyuan Futures [7][10][12] etc.