Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the upcoming earnings report season in April, emphasizing the importance of company performance amid rising external uncertainties and market volatility. It suggests that sectors and companies with better-than-expected performance may stand out during this period [1]. Earnings Preview - A-shares' earnings in Q1 2025 are expected to show flat or slightly negative year-on-year growth due to external demand pressures and macroeconomic challenges. February CPI showed a negative year-on-year growth for the first time in 12 months, while PPI remains low despite marginal improvements [1]. - The impact of increased tariffs from the U.S. on Chinese exports is noted, with February exports showing a year-on-year decline of 3.0%, marking the first negative growth since March of the previous year. The overall earnings growth for A-shares is projected to be around zero or slightly negative [1][2]. Sector Analysis Financial Sector - The brokerage and insurance sectors are expected to benefit from higher market activity in Q1 [2]. Non-Financial Sector - High-demand industries are relatively scarce, but sectors supported by policies, such as non-ferrous metals and certain TMT (Technology, Media, and Telecommunications) areas, may present structural highlights [2]. - Energy and raw materials sectors are expected to have generally flat performance, with non-ferrous metals benefiting from rising gold and copper prices [3]. - The manufacturing sector is showing overall flat performance with some localized recovery, supported by export demand [4]. - The consumer sector's demand remains weak, although policy support areas like "trade-in" programs are performing well [5]. TMT Sector - The communication equipment sector is expected to benefit from increased capital expenditure in the internet sector, while consumer electronics may see mixed results [6]. - The semiconductor sector is maintaining good demand in areas related to computing power, despite being in a traditional off-season [6]. Financial and Real Estate Sector - The banking sector remains stable, while brokerages may benefit from increased trading activity. The insurance sector's performance may vary, and the real estate sector continues to face downward pressure [6]. Investment Focus - Investors are advised to focus on sectors with potential for earnings surprises or improvements during the earnings disclosure period. Key areas to watch include sectors recovering from cyclical lows, such as semiconductors and consumer electronics, and industries achieving supply-side clearing in a mild recovery environment [7].

A股市场估值有望提升，科技成长主线备受关注，科创100指数ETF(588030)成 交额已超2亿元 规模方面，科创100指数ETF近半年规模增长14.15亿元，实现显著增长。 数据显示，杠杆资金持续布局中。科创100指数ETF最新融资买入额达5017.75万元，最新融资余额达3.33亿元。 绝对收益方面，截至2025年3月21日，科创100指数ETF自成立以来，最高单月回报为27.67%，最长连涨月数为3个月，最长连涨涨幅为37.87%，上涨月份平 均收益率为8.75%。 超额收益方面，截至2025年3月21日，科创100指数ETF近1年超越基准年化收益为0.68%。 回撤方面，截至2025年3月21日，科创100指数ETF今年以来最大回撤6.47%，相对基准回撤0.20%。 费率方面，科创100指数ETF管理费率为0.15%，托管费率为0.05%，费率在可比基金中最低。 截至2025年3月24日 13:51，上证科创板100指数(000698)下跌1.43%。成分股方面涨跌互现，安集科技(688019)领涨5.68%，恒玄科技(688608)上涨5.07%，微 导纳米(688147)上涨4.36%；成都华微 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article indicates that market sentiment remains highly volatile, with a short-term shift from bullish to bearish [1][2] - The market sentiment structure indicator reached a low of -0.85 on January 13, 2023, and has since recovered, peaking at 2.2 as of March 21, 2025, signaling a bearish outlook for the upcoming week [2][3] - Despite a generally optimistic view on A-shares, there is an increasing emphasis on defensive attributes as the market shows signs of weakness [3][4] Group 2 - The analysis of various sector indicators shows that the public utilities sector continues to signal bullish trends, while sectors like oil and petrochemicals, transportation, and coal are also showing positive short-term signals [5][6] - The technology and media sectors have experienced significant pullbacks, leading to a bearish outlook in the short term [5][6] - The relative strength index (RSI) analysis indicates that the overall market sentiment is shifting towards value styles, with a stronger certainty in the short-term transition to value [6][7]

Market Adjustment - The article discusses the recent market adjustment, indicating that the convergence of style gaps can occur through either lagging styles catching up or leading styles declining, with the current situation reflecting a strong market state [1][13] - Historical data shows that from October 2013 to December 2013, growth styles were dominant, while consumer styles took over in the same period in 2014, indicating a cyclical nature of market styles [2][14] Calendar Effects - The article highlights the strong seasonal patterns observed in small-cap indices during the first half of the year, noting that adjustments typically occur from December to January to avoid risks associated with annual report forecasts [3][15] - Post-Spring Festival, there is over a 90% probability of an upward trend leading into the Two Sessions, driven by the release of annual report forecasts and the resolution of overseas uncertainties [4][5] TMT Sector Insights - The TMT sector's crowdedness is analyzed, suggesting that a drop in sentiment to around 31% from a peak of 44.6% in February could present a good re-entry point for investments [9][17] - The article recommends continued investment in technology sectors, particularly those with potential for quick order fulfillment and strong fundamentals, such as CSP manufacturers and military electronics [10][18] Deep Sea Technology - The inclusion of "deep sea technology" in the government work report marks a significant policy shift, positioning it alongside commercial aerospace and low-altitude economy, indicating its growing importance [11][19] - Deep sea technology encompasses various sectors, including safety assurance, resource development, and scientific research, with a focus on high-tech materials and equipment suitable for deep-sea conditions [21][22] Comparison with Low Altitude Economy - The article draws parallels between the current deep sea technology trend and the previous low altitude economy surge, suggesting that strong policy support could drive similar market movements [25][29] - Historical performance of low altitude economy stocks shows significant price increases, indicating potential for deep sea technology stocks to follow suit [30][32]

- The quant model used to estimate the activity level of speculative funds showed a decline in activity starting from March 7, indicating a shift from small-cap to large-cap stocks[11] - The GDPNOW model predicted a GDP growth rate of 4.1% for Q1 2025, showing stable marginal changes in macroeconomic forecasts[15] - The informed trader activity index indicated a cautious optimism among informed traders, with the index rising above zero[17] Model Backtesting Results - Speculative funds activity model, IR: 0.5, Sharpe ratio: 1.2, annualized return: 15%[11] - GDPNOW model, predicted GDP growth rate: 4.1%[15] - Informed trader activity index, current value: 0.0025[19] Factor Construction and Evaluation - Factor Name: EP Value; Construction Idea: Preference for high EP value and high dividend yield assets; Construction Process: Calculated using the formula $ EP = \frac{Earnings}{Price} $; Evaluation: Showed positive returns in the current week[27] - Factor Name: Momentum; Construction Idea: Short-term momentum stocks; Construction Process: Calculated using past price performance; Evaluation: Experienced a pullback in the current week[27] Factor Backtesting Results - EP Value factor, weekly return: 0.5%, monthly return: 1.2%, quarterly return: 3.5%[27] - Momentum factor, weekly return: -0.8%, monthly return: 0.9%, quarterly return: 2.1%[27]

晨会纪要（2025/3/14） [Table_Contactor] 编辑人 [Table_MainInfo] 渤海证券研究所晨会纪要 崔健 022-28451618 SACNO: S1150511010016 cuijian@bhzq.com 宏观及策略分析 低位板块表现活跃，行情等待驱动换轨——A 股市场投资策略周报 证 券 研 究 报 告 晨 会 纪 要 晨会纪要（2025/3/14） [Table_MorningSection] 宏观及策略分析 低位板块表现活跃，行情等待驱动换轨——A 股市场投资策略周报 宋亦威（证券分析师，SAC NO：S1150514080001） 严佩佩（证券分析师，SAC NO：S1150520110001） 靳沛芃（研究助理，SAC NO：S1150124030005） 投资要点： 1、市场回顾 近 5 个交易日（3 月 7 日-3 月 13 日），重要指数多数收跌；其中，上证综指收跌 0.66%，创业板指收跌 3.07%； 风格层面，沪深 300 收跌 1.13%，中证 500 收跌 0.89%。成交量方面小幅缩量，两市统计区间内成交 8.10 万 亿元，较前五个交易日减少 ...

一、市场整体表现： 军工、消费板块领涨：军工股受政策利好提振（如军费投入增加），中航飞机、成飞集成等个 股表现突出；白酒、食品饮料等防御性板块也逆势上涨。 受到美股影响，A股早盘三大指数集体低开（上证跌0.91%，深成指跌1.17%，创业板指跌 1.26%），随后市场情绪逐步修复，沪指和深成指收盘翻红，创业板指率先反弹。截至收盘， 沪指成交额突破5900亿元，深市达8800亿元，两市合计成交额超过1.4万亿元。 二、政策与经济基本面支撑 国内宏观经济数据向好（GDP增长超预期、消费回暖），叠加央行宽松货币政策，为市场提供 流动性支持。 政策利好频出，如基建投资加速、减税降费及对科技创新行业的扶持，提振了投资者信心。 外部市场影响 隔夜美股科技股暴跌（纳指ETF跌幅超5%）对A股早盘情绪形成压制，但午后市场逐步消化外 部冲击。 人民币汇率盘中拉升（在岸人民币升破7.25关口），缓解了外资流出压力，北向资金午后或转 为净流入。 三、板块热点分析 行业与板块分化 低开高走，沪指翻红 科技与高波动板块承压：算力、机器人、光伏设备等科技股受美股科技板块下跌拖累，出现明 显回调；TMT赛道内部分化加剧。 红利低波板块受机 ...

Investment Rating - The report suggests a cautious but optimistic outlook for the A-share market in 2024, indicating a potential for structural opportunities to increase compared to 2023 [1][2] Core Views - The report identifies three main perspectives on the A-share market: 1. The market is expected to stabilize, avoiding extremes of caution or exuberance seen in previous years [1] 2. Market fluctuations are anticipated to be more frequent but with smaller amplitudes, with a better environment expected in the second half of the year [2] 3. The importance of bottom-up stock selection is expected to rise, contrasting with the previous year's focus on top-down macro strategies [3][4] Summary by Sections Market Outlook - The report posits that the significant market bottom occurred in September of the previous year, with limited chances of returning to that level in the next 1-2 years [1] - It anticipates a return to normal risk preferences, with structural opportunities likely to increase in 2024 [1] Market Rhythm - The report notes that the market's rhythm in the previous year was characterized by significant ups and downs, while this year is expected to have quicker changes with smaller fluctuations [2] - The second half of the year is projected to have a better market environment compared to the first half [2] Asset Allocation - The report emphasizes a shift from top-down macro strategies to bottom-up stock selection, indicating that last year's major events have already occurred, leading to a focus on ongoing trends rather than new turning points [3] - It highlights three key investment themes for the year: 1. Not all growth stocks are worth buying, with a focus on technology growth in the first half and renewable energy manufacturing in the second half [4][11] 2. Some resilient external demand should still be considered [11] 3. Dividend assets are viewed as offering structural opportunities rather than a broad trend [12] Sector Performance - The report indicates that the technology, media, and telecommunications (TMT) sector has seen significant trading volume, accounting for approximately 46% of the A-share market recently [6] - It draws parallels to the market conditions of 2013, where the overall index remained flat while certain sectors, like the ChiNext, experienced substantial growth [6][10] Policy Support - The report suggests that policy support will continue to be a trend, with themes such as mergers and acquisitions, restructuring, and debt repayment expected to remain relevant [13]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report emphasizes the resurgence of the technology sector, suggesting a potential second upward movement in March, particularly in AI and related fields [2][3][8] - The report highlights that the Chinese government has reiterated its commitment to stabilizing the real estate and stock markets, which is expected to maintain a supportive trend due to ongoing policy efforts [3][7][8] - The report notes a decrease in the average daily trading volume of A-shares to 17,009.27 billion yuan, down by 2,906.59 billion yuan from the previous week, indicating a slight decline in market activity [3][8][16] Group 2 - The report indicates that the release of the new AI model GPT-4.5 by OpenAI has sparked industry interest, although its performance has not met expectations, reinforcing the narrative of a shifting competitive landscape in AI [3][8] - It mentions that the A-share market indices have shown a recovery trend, with major indices rising for three consecutive days, reflecting a restoration of confidence in the capital market [3][8] - The report suggests that the technology sector will continue to outperform, with a focus on opportunities in AI, robotics, computing power, TMT (Technology, Media, and Telecommunications), and consumer electronics [3][8]

Global Market Overview - The global market experienced mixed performance in the past week (March 3-7, 2025), with the US market indices generally declining and broad indices seeing overall valuation contraction, while major indices in Asia-Pacific and Europe mostly rose, indicating valuation expansion [3][10] - The Nasdaq index, Nasdaq 100, and Dow Jones Industrial Average saw significant valuation contractions, with PE ratios decreasing by 1.56x, 1.24x, and 1.11x respectively compared to February 28, 2025 [3][10] A-share Market Valuation - The core broad valuation of A-shares expanded overall, with significant growth in small-cap growth valuations. The PE expansion for the National Index 2000, CSI 1000, and CSI 500 reached 1.70x, 1.29x, and 0.63x respectively [3][19] - As of March 7, 2025, the overall valuation levels of major A-share indices over the past year showed significant expansion, with PE, PB, and PS ratios mostly above the 80th percentile, while PCF ratios were between the 35th and 65th percentiles over the last three years [3][22] Industry and Sector Valuation - The TMT (Technology, Media, and Telecommunications) sector saw valuation increases, with the computer industry rising by 6.74% and the defense and military industry experiencing the largest increase of 6.96% [3][37] - The PE expansion in the TMT sector was notable, with the computer industry seeing a PE increase of 5.17x, while the support services sector experienced valuation contraction [3][37] Emerging Industries - In emerging industries, valuations for artificial intelligence and military groups expanded significantly, with the cloud computing sector showing the largest increase of 6.03% in stock prices, leading to overall valuation expansion [3][3] - The PE expansion for cloud computing, semiconductor, and integrated circuit sectors reached 7.76x, 5.95x, and 3.58x respectively, while the Kimi index saw a PE expansion of 9.69x and the top ten military group index expanded by 5.56x [3][3]