Group 1: Currency and Policy Changes - The offshore RMB exchange rate surpassed the 7 mark for the first time in 15 months on December 25, 2025, indicating a continuous appreciation since mid-October[1] - The central bank is expected to implement a reserve requirement ratio (RRR) cut and interest rate reduction in Q1 2026, alongside the introduction of more structural tools[1] Group 2: Real Estate and Sales Trends - The average weekly land transaction area in 100 cities increased by 102.8% month-on-month in December, although it remains at a five-year low with a year-on-year decline of 3.4%[1] - New home sales in 30 major cities saw a month-on-month increase of 45.8%, with a year-on-year decline narrowing to 25.6%[3] - Second-hand home sales in 18 key cities increased by 13.7% month-on-month, with a year-on-year decline of 22.7%[3] Group 3: Supply Chain and Production - The operating rate of blast furnaces decreased by 1.0 percentage points to 78.4%, while the operating rate of coking enterprises fell by 2.4 percentage points to 66.1%[2] - The operating rate of asphalt plants increased by 1.6 percentage points to 29.5%, and cement dispatch rates rose by 0.3 percentage points to 31.6%[2] Group 4: Commodity Prices - Prices for copper, rebar, and coking coal have risen, with LME copper prices increasing by 2.7% month-on-month and a year-on-year increase of 33.8%[5] - Brent crude oil prices fell by 2.7% month-on-month, with a year-on-year decline of 17.2%[4] Group 5: Inventory and Logistics - Energy inventories, including coal at coastal power plants, decreased by 1.8% month-on-month, while U.S. crude oil and petroleum product inventories fell by 525,000 barrels to 1.687 billion barrels[6] - The Baltic Dry Index (BDI) fell by 20.6% month-on-month, while the China Containerized Freight Index (CCFI) rose by 1.7%[7]

1.茅台董事长陈华：聚焦"哪里买"，要找到"谁来买" 12月28日，2026年茅台经销商大会召开。茅台集团党委书记、董事长陈华针对新年市场策略进行布局。他 表示，要让渠道更"活"，要聚焦"哪里买"，推动构建线上线下融合、传统现代互补的渠道网络；要找到"谁 来买"，主动拥抱新经济，拓展新客群；要让服务更"优"，增强消费体验，加强渠道生态韧性。 点评：2026茅台要发力了？ 2.ST葫芦娃：因涉嫌信息披露违法违规，收到证监会立案告知书 ST葫芦娃12月28日公告，公司及公司董事长刘景萍于12月26日分别收到证监会下发的《立案告知书》。因 公司及公司董事长刘景萍涉嫌信息披露违法违规，根据《中华人民共和国证券法》《中华人民共和国行政 处罚法》等法律法规，中国证监会决定对公司和刘景萍立案。目前，公司各项生产经营活动正常有序开 展，在立案调查期间，公司将积极配合中国证监会的相关调查工作，并严格按照有关法律法规及监管要求 履行信息披露义务。 3.晚期阿尔茨海默病治疗或有新突破口 记者28日从中国科学院昆明动物研究所获悉，该所近期与云南大学生命科学学院携手，通过研发调控葡萄 糖代谢、修复脑能量危机的新型活性化合物，成功逆转中 ...

责任编辑：栎树 香港差饷物业估价署数据显示，今年11月香港私人住宅楼价指数报297.3点，月环比微升0.92%，连升6 个月，同比升1.99%；今年首11个月累升2.8%。另外，11月份租金指数为200.7点，月环比升0.2%，同比 升4.59%；今年首11个月累升4.26%。 财经频道更多独家策划、专家专栏，免费查阅>> ...

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve is expected to cut interest rates by 25 basis points in December to stimulate the economy, which may lead to a recovery in the Hong Kong property market after the Lunar New Year, with a potential price increase of 5% to 8% in 2026 [1] Group 1: Property Market Performance - The Hong Kong private residential property price index reached 297.3 points in November, showing a month-on-month increase of 0.92%, marking six consecutive months of growth, and a year-on-year increase of 1.99%; the cumulative increase for the first 11 months of the year is 2.8% [1] - The overall property market is expected to perform better in 2025 compared to 2024, with both price and transaction volume increasing [1] - The adjustment of stamp duty is expected to help the transaction volume of lower-priced properties, but the most significant stimulus for the overall market comes from interest rate cuts [1] Group 2: Market Sentiment and Future Projections - Market sentiment is showing signs of recovery, but high inventory levels and the inability of Hibor to remain low are limiting significant reductions in mortgage rates [1] - The property market is anticipated to see a noticeable improvement in prices after the Lunar New Year, with a forecasted increase of about 3% in 2025 [1] - The Hong Kong government's talent programs are expected to slightly increase the labor force and high-income population, providing stable support for residential rental demand, with rental prices projected to rise by 3% to 5% in 2026 [1]

（本文作者张思远为星图金融研究院研究员） 一、政策红利密集落地，春季行情有望提前启动 2026年作为"十五五"规划的开局之年，宏观政策的前瞻性布局与协同发力为资本市场提供了坚实支撑。 中央经济工作会议定调后，国家发改委、中央财办等核心部门密集开展政策解读，持续释放积极信号， 不仅明确了全年经济工作的核心方向，也为A股市场注入了强劲信心。从政策传导逻辑来看，积极财政 政策与适度宽松货币政策的组合发力，将有效缓解当前经济运行中的"供强需弱"矛盾，推动经济复苏预 期持续升温，而这一过程将直接赋能资本市场，催化春季行情提前启动。 （一）国内宏观政策协同发力，夯实经济复苏基础 中央财办在政策解读中明确，扩大内需将成为2026年经济工作的首要任务，核心在于构建供需两侧协同 提振消费的长效机制，同时统筹推进消费与投资的良性互动。在房地产市场调控方面，政策呈现供需两 端精准施策的特征。供给端聚焦"控增量、盘活存量"的核心目标，通过去库存化优化市场供给结构；需 求端则重点支持刚性与改善性住房需求，通过差异化信贷政策、购房补贴等举措稳定市场预期，推动房 地产市场实现平稳健康发展。 国家发改委明确2026年将围绕提振消费、稳投资、 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of leveraging investment and consumption to stimulate economic growth in Yunnan Province, aligning with national policies to create a robust domestic market and support the new development pattern [7]. Investment and Consumption Potential - The "14th Five-Year Plan" period is identified as a critical time for Yunnan's development, focusing on enhancing investment and consumption as dual drivers to unlock market potential [6][9]. - Investment is highlighted as a stabilizing force for growth and a catalyst for structural adjustment, with a focus on infrastructure and human capital [9]. - Specific sectors for investment include transportation, water conservancy, agriculture, tourism, and energy, with an emphasis on improving public services in education, healthcare, and cultural sectors [9]. Economic Growth and Structural Adjustment - The article notes that Yunnan's economy has surpassed 3 trillion yuan, with a target for further growth in 2024 [3]. - The province's real estate market is seen as a key area for expanding investment and consumption, with sales growth outpacing the national average by 9.2 percentage points from January to November 2025 [10]. Consumer Market Activation - New consumption scenarios and business models are essential for unlocking consumer potential, with a focus on integrating Yunnan's unique natural and cultural resources into tourism and wellness experiences [9]. - The example of Tengchong shows a 42% increase in tourism numbers and a rise in per capita spending to 13,000 yuan, indicating significant potential in the tourism sector [9]. Real Estate Market Development - The real estate sector is positioned as a priority for investment and consumption, particularly given Yunnan's urbanization rate is below the national average, suggesting substantial growth opportunities [10]. - Strategies include designing housing that meets the needs of urbanizing populations and enhancing marketing efforts to stimulate market activity [10].

智通财经APP获悉，香港差饷物业估价署数据显示，今年11月香港私人住宅楼价指数报297.3点，月环 比微升0.92%，连升6个月，同比升1.99%；今年首11个月累升2.8%。另外，11月份租金指数为200.7点， 月环比升0.2%，同比升4.59%；今年首11个月累升4.26%。 ...

Group 1: Macro and Industry Policy Tracking - The report highlights a focus on multi-field collaborative advancement in industry policies, including the cultivation of emerging industries such as integrated circuits and low-altitude economy, as well as strengthening 6G research [1][10] - The housing and urban-rural construction meeting emphasizes stabilizing the real estate market and developing a new model characterized by the sale of existing homes, with a focus on policies tailored to individual cities [1][12] - The transportation department predicts that yacht and cruise consumption will evolve towards mass-market and large-scale development, indicating a shift in consumer behavior [1][13] Group 2: Financial Regulations - The financial regulatory authority has standardized the information disclosure of asset management products to protect investor rights, ensuring transparency and accountability in financial products [1][16] Group 3: Energy and Technology Developments - The energy sector is promoting the large-scale development of solar thermal power and has introduced the world's first mandatory standard for electric vehicle energy consumption, which will enhance vehicle performance and consumer experience [1][18] - A significant technological breakthrough was achieved in the field of superconducting magnetic levitation, with a test speed of 700 km/h, marking a milestone in China's technological advancement [1][19] Group 4: Stock Market Performance - The A-share market showed mixed performance, with the top five sectors by growth being industrial trade and comprehensive (+7.34%), non-ferrous metals (+6.55%), chemicals (+5.86%), national defense and military industry (+5.81%), and hardware equipment (+4.99%) [1][22] Group 5: Popular Concepts Tracking - The report identifies the top five popular concepts this week, with lithium battery electrolyte (+17.80%), Hainan Free Trade Port (+10.98%), 6G (+9.40%), RF and antennas (+9.27%), and power batteries (+8.78%) showing significant growth [2][25]

Market Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index achieved an eight-day winning streak, with a weekly increase of 1.88%, indicating a "steady rise" trend [2] - The Shenzhen Component Index and ChiNext Index performed better, with weekly gains of 3.55% and 3.90% respectively [2] - The Wande Commercial Aerospace Index surged by 8.36%, marking its largest weekly gain in the second half of the year [2] - The overall market sentiment showed improvement, with increased trading volumes, indicating a recovery in risk appetite [4] Equity Market - The average daily trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets significantly increased to 1.95 trillion yuan, surpassing 2 trillion yuan on Friday [4] - Growth style stocks outperformed value style stocks, suggesting a shift in market preference [4] - The market is showing signs of breaking out of the consolidation phase, with a need to closely monitor changes in trading volume [4] Bond Market - The bond market showed a recovery, with both interest rate bonds and credit bonds strengthening, supported by a balanced funding environment [2][29] - The central bank's measures have maintained liquidity, alleviating initial concerns about market adjustments [5] - A cautious approach is recommended for long-term bonds due to supply pressures, with a focus on short to medium-term bond strategies [5] Commodity Market - COMEX gold prices continued to rise, reaching new highs, driven by a weaker dollar and geopolitical tensions [2] - The South China Commodity Index increased by 4.00%, with significant gains in precious metals and non-ferrous metals [33] - The outlook for gold remains positive in the medium to long term, supported by factors such as central bank purchases and limited supply capacity [6] Overseas Market - The U.S. stock market showed resilience, with the S&P 500 reaching new highs, supported by strong economic data [2] - The U.S. GDP for Q3 was reported at an annualized rate of 4.3%, exceeding expectations, which has led to a slight reduction in interest rate cut expectations [2] - Investors are encouraged to consider diversified overseas investments through QDII funds, balancing asset classes and regional exposures [7]

Market Overview - The Hang Seng Index has short-term support at the 25,000 point level, with expectations of two interest rate cuts in 2026 following the Federal Reserve's recent 0.25% rate cut, which brings the federal funds rate to a range of 3.5% to 3.75% [1][4] - The market anticipates a dovish monetary policy stance post-2026 leadership change, but further observation of economic data is necessary [1] - The Chinese economy is facing a supply-demand imbalance, with a focus on stabilizing investment and the real estate market, while the US-China tariff war has paused, limiting the incentive for aggressive policy adjustments in the short term [1] Company News - Xiaomi's co-founder Lin Bin plans to sell up to $2 billion worth of shares, with proceeds intended for establishing an investment fund [10] - Leapmotor has received a premium subscription from FAW for nearly 75 million shares, amounting to over 4.1 billion RMB [10] - ByteDance is expected to purchase Huawei's Ascend chips next year, with total orders potentially exceeding 40 billion RMB, marking a significant increase from nearly zero in 2025 [10] - UBTECH Robotics has acquired a 43% stake in Fenglong for approximately 1.665 billion RMB, focusing on garden machinery and automotive components [10] - Vanke's domestic bond extension proposal was not approved, but a grace period extension was passed, allowing for a 30-day extension [10] Industry Insights - The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) is addressing "involution" competition in new energy vehicles and related industries, emphasizing price monitoring and quality checks to prevent disorderly competition [9] - The Chinese government is set to implement a more proactive fiscal policy in 2026, focusing on boosting consumption and effective investment in key areas [9] - The industrial profits in China fell by 13.1% year-on-year in November, indicating challenges in the industrial sector [9] - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology forecasts a 5.9% growth in industrial value added for the year, with significant growth in high-tech manufacturing [9]