Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The finished products are expected to move in a volatile and consolidating manner, with the price center shifting downward and showing weak performance. The aluminum ingot price is expected to experience a short - term weak callback, and the short - term market fluctuates sharply [1][2][3] Summary by Related Content Finished Products - Yungui region's short - process construction steel producers will stop production for maintenance from mid - January, and resume production around the 11th to 16th day of the first lunar month. The total output of construction steel is expected to be affected by 741,000 tons during this period. Six short - process steel mills in Anhui, one stopped on January 5th, most will stop in mid - January, and a few after January 20th. The daily output is expected to be affected by 16,200 tons [1] - From December 30, 2024, to January 5, 2025, the total transaction area of newly - built commercial housing in 10 key cities was 2.234 million square meters, a 40.3% decrease from the previous period and a 43.2% increase year - on - year [2] - The finished products continued to decline yesterday, reaching a new low. In the context of weak supply and demand, the market sentiment is pessimistic, the price center continues to shift downward. The winter storage is sluggish this year, providing weak support for prices [2] Aluminum Ingots - The sharp decline of Shanghai Aluminum was due to the selling of precious metals, triggering risk - aversion sentiment. The market's expectation of loose liquidity was disappointed, and funds fled from risk assets such as commodities. The previous large increase in the non - ferrous metal sector led to profit - taking, intensifying the downward pressure on prices [1] - In January 2026, the domestic electrolytic aluminum output increased by 2.7% year - on - year and 0.5% month - on - month. In February, it is expected to decrease month - on - month due to fewer natural days. Some new electrolytic aluminum projects are expected to be put into production stably [2] - As the Spring Festival approaches, the downstream demand for raw materials weakens, and the high aluminum price suppresses demand. The enterprise's willingness to cast ingots increases significantly, and the proportion of molten aluminum is expected to drop sharply [2] - Last week, the comprehensive operating rate of aluminum processing was 59.4%, a 1.5 - percentage - point decline from the previous week, showing characteristics of "accelerated seasonal decline and deepened high - price suppression effect". Most sub - sectors' operating rates decreased, and the industry is quickly entering the Spring Festival off - season [2] - As of January 29, the national social inventory of aluminum ingots has reached 782,000 tons, an increase of 330,000 tons compared with the same period in 2025 [2] Later Concerns - For finished products, the concerns are macro - policies and downstream demand [2] - For aluminum ingots, the concerns are changes in macro - expectations, the development of geopolitical crises, the resumption of production at the mine end, and the release of consumption [3]

这是一场保壳的极速狂奔，仅24%的ST股业绩向好，多只ST股拉响了退市警报。这些公司大多存在被 出具非标年报、利润亏损、扣除后营业收入为负值、期末净资产为负值等情况，部分公司遭立案调查或 被处罚。 每当年报过后，就会有一批因业绩再度不达标的风险警示股黯然挥手资本市场，而业绩预告，往往成为 市场观察这些公司命运走向的重要风向标。 Wind数据显示，截至2月2日，178只风险警示股中，已有176只发布了业绩预告，其中。93只退市风险 警示股已全部发布业绩预告。 这是一场保壳的极速狂奔，仅24%的ST股业绩向好，多只ST股拉响了退市警报，如*ST岩石 （600696.SH）、*ST精伦（600355.SH）、*ST观典（688287.SH）等均称，公司股票可能被终止上市。 这些公司大多存在被出具非标年报、利润亏损、扣除后营业收入为负值、期末净资产为负值等情况，部 分公司遭立案调查或被处罚。 退市制度是市场新陈代谢的重要一环，自退市新规发布实施以来，资本市场正加速形成"应退尽退、及 时出清"的常态化退市格局。 仅24%ST股业绩向好 退市警报已拉响 在亏损依旧的ST股中，部分已提前明确触及财务类退市指标，如*ST岩石 ...

2026年2月2日，中国建设银行支持上海市第一批收购二手住房用于保障性租赁住房项目签约活动在中国建设银行上海市分行举行。 此次签约标志着上海开展收购二手住房用于保障性租赁住房工作实质性启动。 签约现场，浦东新区、静安区、徐汇区三个试点区结合各区实际，明确了房源筛选标准与运作模式： 1、收购二手房房源以小户型为主（70平方米以下）。 2、产业园、核心商圈、轨交站点附近房源优先收购。 3、由区级保障房公司等国企为收购主体，收购价格按市场或评估价格（总价400万以下房源为主），采取自愿申请原则。 从房源筛选标准与运作模式来看，基本以当前二手房市场置换链底层"老破小"为主，这也是二手房市场价格敏感度最大、"以价换量"最明显的房源之一。 在"官方收购"下，这些房源将率先实现稳定，并成为激活房地产市场置换链的第一步。 01 2026年2月2日，中国建设银行支持上海市第一批收购二手住房用于保障性租赁住房项目签约活动在中国建设银行上海市分行举行。第一批以浦东新区、静 安区、徐汇区为试点区域。 从上海收购二手住房用于保障性租赁住房工作本身来看，对"卖一买一"刚改需求购房者利好最大。 当前市场改善需求遇到的最大痛点是置换链问题， ...

| 申万期货品种策略日报——股指 | 2026/2/3 | 星期二 | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 申银万国期货研究所 贾婷婷（从业资格号：F3056905；交易咨询号：Z0016232 ）jiatt@sywgqh.com.cn;15921620356 | 申银万国期货研究所 柴玉荣 （从业资格号：F03111639；交易咨询号：Z0018586）chaiyr@sywgqh.com.cn;18802979529 | | | | | | | | | | | 一、股指期货市场 | IF当月 | IF下月 | IF下季 | IF隔季 | | | | | | | | 前两日收盘价 | 4710.00 | 4711.00 | 4699.80 | 4655.00 | 前日收盘价 | 4582.20 | 4577.40 | 4540.00 | 4491.80 | | | 涨跌 | -136.20 | -142.20 | -167.60 | -170.60 | 沪深300 | 涨跌幅 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating provided in the report. 2. Core View - The report shows that the iron ore market is experiencing narrow - range fluctuations. The trend strength of iron ore is 0, indicating a neutral stance [1][2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamentals Tracking - **Futures Data**: The closing price of I2605 was 783.0 yuan/ton, down 8.5 yuan/ton or 1.07%. The yesterday's position was 520,684 hands, with a decrease of 20,544 hands [1]. - **Spot Prices**: Imported ores like Carajás fines (65%) dropped from 884.0 to 879.0 yuan/ton, PB (61.5%) from 794.0 to 787.0 yuan/ton, etc. Domestic ores such as Hanxing (66%) decreased from 956.0 to 950.0 yuan/ton [1]. - **Basis and Spreads**: The basis of I2605 against Super Special increased by 2.0 yuan/ton to 96.3 yuan/ton. The spread between I2605 - I2609 decreased by 2.0 yuan/ton to 17.0 yuan/ton [1]. 3.2 Macro and Industry News - China's January RatingDog manufacturing PMI was 50.3, in line with expectations and higher than the previous value of 50.1 [1]. - Many real - estate enterprises are no longer required by regulatory authorities to report the "Three Red Lines" indicators monthly, but some troubled real - estate enterprises need to report financial indicators such as asset - liability ratio regularly [1]. 3.3 Trend Strength - The trend strength of iron ore is 0, within the range of [-2, 2], indicating a neutral view on the market [2].

Summary of China State Construction Engineering Corporation Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: China State Construction Engineering Corporation (CSCEC) - **Industry**: Construction and Real Estate Key Points Financial Performance and Projections - **2025 Profit Outlook**: CSCEC expects a slight decline in profit for 2025, primarily due to a decrease in gross margin from real estate operations and accounts receivable issues in construction [2][6] - **Revenue and Contract Growth**: New contract value reached 4.5 trillion yuan in 2025, a 1% year-on-year increase. The construction business grew by 0.5% to 2.6 trillion yuan, while the infrastructure sector saw a 4.1% increase to 1.47 trillion yuan [4] - **Real Estate Sales**: Contract sales in the real estate sector were 394.8 billion yuan, down 6% year-on-year [4] - **Land Acquisition**: The company acquired over 9 million square meters of land, primarily in first- and second-tier cities, laying a foundation for sustainable development [4] Cash Flow and Financial Health - **Cash Flow Improvement**: Operating cash flow turned positive with over 10 billion yuan in the first three quarters, expected to improve further in Q4, traditionally a peak collection period [8] - **Inventory Impairment**: Increased inventory impairment provisions reflect the company's cautious stance on current market conditions and project clientele, varying by city and project [9] Strategic Focus and Future Plans - **"15th Five-Year Plan"**: The plan is viewed as a critical period for building a world-class enterprise, focusing on intrinsic development in construction, rapid advancement in infrastructure, and stabilizing the real estate sector while enhancing quality [10] - **Investment Strategy**: The company is concentrating investments, with over 75% directed towards real estate, emphasizing projects with clear returns [5][11] - **Urban Renewal Projects**: These projects straddle real estate and construction, with varying investment needs and return rates, indicating a strategic focus on urban renewal as a growth area [12] Market Conditions and Industry Dynamics - **Real Estate Sector Challenges**: The real estate industry is under pressure, necessitating a wait for policy optimization and fundamental improvements [2][7] - **Government Support**: Infrastructure business is expected to benefit from national policy support, particularly in energy, water conservancy, and transportation sectors [2][7] Mergers and Acquisitions - **M&A Strategy**: The company is focused on mergers and acquisitions that create synergies within specific sectors, with less emphasis on large-scale mergers between state-owned enterprises [13][14] Conclusion - CSCEC is navigating a challenging market environment with a cautious yet strategic approach, focusing on sustainable growth, cash flow improvement, and leveraging government support in infrastructure while managing risks in the real estate sector.

月论高股息：防御配置价值显现 20260202 摘要 红利股配置价值上升，周期型红利股如石油石化、建材、有色等表现强 劲。精工红利择时模型转为看多，建议关注公用事业、保险、出版等稳 定性高股息板块，以及铁路、公路、环保、大众消费和地产等潜力型高 股息板块。 险资出于现金收益和股息需求，将继续增配红利股，成为确定性主题。 年初分红险保单销售良好，保费流入增加，险资将在长债、成长股和红 利股中趋势性增配红利。 高速公路板块调整幅度较大，龙头企业如招商公路股息率达 4~4.5%， 部分小票超 5%。1 月货运量边际走强，春运旺季人流出行预测良好， 板块景气度上行，资金流入情况良好，推荐龙头企业。 建筑建材行业看好央企重组优化提速背景下低估值企业，中长期看好涂 料和定制板材赛道，推荐兔宝宝。水泥领域看好业绩稳定且具有投资收 益来源的公司，如防水企业雨虹。 建筑建材行业推荐中材国际和四川路桥等国央企或地方国企，其在局部 区域需求景气或出海业务方面具有较高的业绩增长确定性及分红确定性， 股息率约为 5.5%至 6%。 Q&A 近期市场波动较大，春节前后红利股的配置价值如何？ 近期受到海外地缘冲突和美联储主席人选变动的影响 ...

大摩闭门会：邢自强、Laura Wang：风云变幻的 26 年市场 260202 摘要 Kevin Wash 被提名为美联储主席，其政策主张倾向于缩减资产负债表 和回归传统利率工具，引发市场对流动性边际收紧的预期，导致贵金属、 汇率和科技板块出现剧烈调整，如黄金短期暴跌 16%。 长期来看，由于美国高债务和赤字，以美元为代表的法币体系可能逐步 贬值，战略资产如贵金属的吸引力增强。尽管短期黄金价格回调，但长 期配置窗口依然存在。 2026 年投资者应关注 AI 算力与技术突破、能源政治与能源转型、多极 化世界背景下关键原材料自给自足三大趋势，这些趋势有助于锚定长期 投资方向。 中国房地产政策预计延续托底防风险思路，不会再刺激行业。政策将采 取定向温和措施，如按揭补贴、局部放松限购等，以确保地产价格与供 需调整平滑，并逐步回归基本面。 一月份中国制造业 PMI 和非制造业 PMI 均落入收缩区间，但应避免过度 解读，高频数据显示财政支持和外需仍能提供一定支撑。价格相关指标 显示 PPI 环比转正，但上游涨价可能给中下游企业带来压力。 人形机器人行业出货量预期较高，但主要订单来自政府支持项目，商业 应用仍处验证阶段 ...

本文源自：市场资讯 作者：观察君 2月2日，金属价格下跌趋势缓解，欧洲主要股指悉数抹去此前跌幅，英国富时100指数、法国CAC40指 数、德国DAX30指数、富时意大利MIB指数均实现上涨。 声明：市场有风险，投资需谨慎。本文为AI基于第三方数据生成，仅供参考，不构成个人投资建议。 欧洲股市自1月中旬以来首次创下纪录新高，矿业股同步反弹，旅游休闲股和银行股位居涨幅前列。斯 托克欧洲600指数收盘上涨1%。包括食品和饮料股在内的防御性板块同步上涨，房地产股为表现最差的 板块之一。 矿业股在盘中一度下跌3.5%，最终反弹0.8%。美国总统唐纳德·特朗普准备以120亿美元的种子资金启动 战略性关键矿产储备项目，成为矿业股反弹的触发因素。西班牙IBEX35指数同期触及历史新高。 ...

2月3日，金融界财经早餐，宏观政策、资本市场、行业板块、公司个股资讯一览： 一、今日财经资讯 1、中共中央政治局常委、国务院总理李强2月2日在山东调研。李强强调，要围绕推动高质量发展，结 合"十五五"规划的编制和实施，深入谋划一批重大举措、重大项目，在因地制宜发展新质生产力、做强国 内大循环、促进居民就业增收等重点领域取得更大进展。 2、中共中央、国务院发布关于《现代化首都都市圈空间协同规划（2023－2035年）》，规划指出，首都 都市圈是优化提升和服务保障首都功能的重要地区、世界一流城市群建设主引擎、中华文明传承发展重要 地区、区域协同治理引领区、美丽中国建设先行区。 3、市场监管总局会同中央空管办、国家发展改革委等十部门联合发布《低空经济标准体系建设指南 （2025年版）》。到2027年，低空经济标准体系基本建立，基本满足低空经济安全健康发展需求。到2030 年，低空经济领域标准超过300项 ，结构优化、先进合理、国际兼容的低空经济标准体系基本形成，为低 空经济安全健康发展提供有力支撑。 二、资本市场大事 1、上期所发布关于做好市场风险控制工作的通知，通知称，近期国际形势复杂多变，市场波动较大。请 各有 ...