1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for both the粕类 (bean meal and rapeseed meal) and corn sectors is "Cautiously Bearish" [3][6] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The domestic bean meal market is mainly oscillating due to the lack of clear data guidance caused by the US government shutdown. The downstream soybean supply in China remains sufficient in the short - term, with continuous arrival of imported soybeans and high oil - mill operating rates. The harvest of US soybeans is accelerating, and the sowing of new - season soybeans in Brazil is progressing smoothly. Attention should be paid to policy changes [2] - For the corn market, new corn in some northeastern regions of China is starting to be listed. Although the opening price is slightly higher than last year, the overall corn output has increased this year, and the purchase price is expected to decline with the concentrated listing of new - season corn. Attention should be paid to the selling enthusiasm of farmers and the acquisition situation after the listing of new grain, as well as the impact of rainfall on corn quality [4][5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 粕类 (Bean Meal and Rapeseed Meal) 3.1.1 Market News and Important Data - **Futures**: The closing price of the bean meal 2601 contract was 2907 yuan/ton, a change of - 10 yuan/ton (- 0.34%) from the previous day; the closing price of the rapeseed meal 2601 contract was 2364 yuan/ton, a change of + 7 yuan/ton (+ 0.30%) from the previous day [1] - **Spot**: In Tianjin, the bean meal spot price was 3000 yuan/ton, a change of + 10 yuan/ton from the previous day, and the spot basis was M01 + 93, a change of + 20 from the previous day; in Jiangsu and Guangdong, the bean meal spot price was 2900 yuan/ton, with no change from the previous day, and the spot basis was M01 - 7, a change of + 10 from the previous day; in Fujian, the rapeseed meal spot price was 2580 yuan/ton, a change of + 10 yuan/ton from the previous day, and the spot basis was RM01 + 216, a change of + 3 from the previous day [1] - **Market Information**: The Brazilian National Association of Grain Exporters expects the soybean export volume in Brazil in October 2025 to be 731 million tons, higher than the previous estimate of 712 million tons and a 65% increase compared to 443 million tons in October last year. The expected soybean export volume from January to October is 1.02 billion tons, compared to 934.9 million tons in the same period last year, and the expected annual export volume will reach a record 1.1 billion tons [1] 3.1.2 Market Analysis - The domestic bean meal market lacks clear data guidance due to the US government shutdown and is mainly oscillating. The downstream soybean supply in China is sufficient, with continuous arrival of imported soybeans and high oil - mill operating rates. The harvest of US soybeans is accelerating, and the sowing of new - season soybeans in Brazil is progressing smoothly. Attention should be paid to policy changes [2] 3.1.3 Strategy - Cautiously bearish [3] 3.2 Corn 3.2.1 Market News and Important Data - **Futures**: The closing price of the corn 2511 contract was 2111 yuan/ton, a change of + 10 yuan/ton (+ 0.48%) from the previous day; the closing price of the corn starch 2511 contract was 2376 yuan/ton, a change of - 25 yuan/ton (- 1.04%) from the previous day [3] - **Spot**: In Liaoning, the corn spot price was 2150 yuan/ton, with no change from the previous day, and the spot basis was C11 + 29, with no change from the previous day; in Jilin, the corn starch spot price was 2550 yuan/ton, with no change from the previous day, and the spot basis was CS11 + 174, a change of + 25 from the previous day [3] - **Market Information**: On October 15, the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics estimated that the total corn planting area in Brazil in 2025 would be 22.163 million hectares, a 3.8% increase from the previous month's estimate and a 0.2% increase from last year's planting area. The total corn output is estimated to be 138.438 million tons, a 0.3% increase from the previous month's estimate and a 20.7% increase from last year's output [3] 3.2.2 Market Analysis - New corn in some northeastern regions of China is starting to be listed. Although the opening price is slightly higher than last year, the overall corn output has increased this year, and the purchase price is expected to decline with the concentrated listing of new - season corn. Rainfall has affected the quality of corn during the harvest period, and attention should be paid to the selling enthusiasm of farmers and the acquisition situation after the listing of new grain [4][5] 3.2.3 Strategy - Cautiously bearish [6]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - The report does not explicitly provide an overall industry investment rating. However, it gives individual ratings for different agricultural products: - **Oils and Fats**: Oscillating [5] - **Protein Meals**: Oscillating [6] - **Corn/Starch**: Oscillating [9] - **Hogs**: Oscillating Weakly [9] - **Natural Rubber**: Oscillating [10] - **Synthetic Rubber**: Oscillating [13] - **Cotton**: Oscillating Weakly [14] - **Sugar**: Oscillating Weakly [15] - **Pulp**: Oscillating Weakly [17] - **Offset Printing Paper**: Oscillating [18] - **Logs**: Oscillating Strongly [20] 2. Core Views of the Report - The agricultural market shows a complex situation with different products having their own supply - demand dynamics, influenced by factors such as macro - environment, trade relations, production, and consumption patterns. Overall, most products are expected to be in an oscillating state, with some showing a weakening or strengthening trend [5][9][14]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Views - **Oils and Fats**: Due to factors like the US government "shutdown", trade tensions, and mixed supply - demand expectations, oils and fats are expected to continue oscillating. Brazilian soybean production is expected to increase, and the inventory situation varies among different types of oils [5]. - **Protein Meals**: US soybean exports face challenges, while Brazilian soybean planting progresses smoothly. In China, short - term supply pressure is high, and long - term supply is expected to increase. Demand for protein meals may be stable or slightly increase [6]. - **Corn/Starch**: Market sentiment has improved, with spot prices stabilizing and futures rebounding. However, new - grain supply pressure exists in the short term, and the market is expected to be short - term bearish and long - term bullish [9]. - **Hogs**: Monthly supply - demand is loose, and hog prices are under pressure. In the short and medium term, supply is abundant, while in the long term, if the "anti - involution" policy leads to capacity reduction, supply pressure may ease in the second half of 2026 [9]. - **Natural Rubber**: NR shows a relatively strong performance, while RU is affected by over - expected state reserve sales. The market is influenced by factors such as raw material prices, import volume, and demand [10]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: The price is at a low level and has rebounded from the bottom, but the fundamental pressure is large, and the market is expected to oscillate at the bottom [13]. - **Cotton**: Cotton prices have stabilized and oscillated. The expected reduction in Xinjiang cotton production and the outcome of Sino - US trade negotiations are the main influencing factors [14]. - **Sugar**: The international and domestic sugar markets are in a relatively loose supply situation. In the short term, there is some support, but in the medium - long term, prices are expected to decline [15]. - **Pulp**: The market remains weak, and pulp prices are at a low level. Although there are some short - term factors driving up futures prices, the overall fundamental situation is bearish [17]. - **Offset Printing Paper**: The market maintains a narrow - range oscillation, with supply increasing and demand remaining weak [18]. - **Logs**: The market is affected by the special port fee and weak fundamentals. Although there is a potential for short - term upward movement, the long - term outlook is still under pressure due to weak demand [20]. 3.2 Variety Data Monitoring - The report lists the data monitoring section for different varieties, but no specific data details are provided in the content for further summary. 3.3 Commodity Index - On October 16, 2025, the comprehensive index, special index, and sector index of the commodity are presented. The special index shows an increase, while the agricultural product index has a decline in different time - periods [179][181].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the upward trend in agricultural futures at the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) on October 16, with all major contracts closing higher [1] Group 2 - Soybean futures increased by 0.52%, closing at 1011.75 cents per bushel [1] - Corn futures rose by 1.26%, ending at 422.00 cents per bushel [1] - Wheat futures saw a gain of 0.75%, closing at 502.50 cents per bushel [1]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The market is generally stable, with the futures market showing a pattern of oscillation. The domestic soybean meal market is consolidating, and the decline space is limited after significant drops. Rapeseed meal has a slight rebound, but overall changes are limited, and the fundamental pressure persists [4]. - The soybean - related market is under pressure. Without a significant tightening of the balance sheet, the price center of the soybean system is expected to decline. Rapeseed meal is expected to move in a volatile manner [5][8]. - Given the current market situation, the recommended trading strategies are to stay on the sidelines for single - sided trading and engage in the M11 - 1 calendar spread. For options, selling a wide - straddle structure is suggested [11][12]. 3. Summary by Relevant Contents 3.1 Market Quotes - **Futures and Spot Prices**: On October 16, 2025, soybean meal futures contracts 01, 05, and 09 closed at 2907, 2742, and 2853 respectively, with changes of - 10, + 2, and 0. Rapeseed meal futures contracts 01, 05, and 09 closed at 2364, 2306, and 2395 respectively, with changes of + 7, + 8, and + 7. Spot basis and price differences also showed various changes [4]. - **Price Spreads**: For soybean meal, the 15 - spread was 165 (down 12 from the previous day), the 59 - spread was - 111 (up 2), and the 91 - spread was - 54 (up 10). For rapeseed meal, the 15 - spread was 58 (down 1), the 59 - spread was - 89 (up 1), and the 91 - spread was 31 (unchanged). The cross - variety price spreads and spot price spreads also had corresponding changes [4]. 3.2 Fundamental Analysis - **International Market**: The carry - over inventory of the old US soybean crop has been slightly adjusted upwards, with good demand fulfillment. The new crop's supply has slightly increased due to a small increase in planting area despite a slight decrease in yield per unit. South American old - crop supply is relatively loose, with expected increases in production, crushing volume, and possible increases in carry - over inventory or exports. The international soybean meal supply pressure is significant [5]. - **Domestic Market**: The domestic spot pressure has slightly improved but remains relatively loose. As of October 10, the soybean inventory was 765.76 million tons, an increase of 6.37% from the previous week and 14.29% year - on - year. The soybean meal inventory was 107.91 million tons, a decrease of 9.26% from the previous week but an increase of 6.17% year - on - year. Rapeseed meal demand is gradually weakening, and the supply pressure still exists [8]. 3.3 Macroeconomic Factors - Sino - US communication has reduced concerns about trade conflicts, but the Madrid negotiation did not provide clear guidance on the soybean industry. With the decreasing demand for US soybeans in the long - term, the upward space for the domestic soybean meal futures market is limited [9]. 3.4 Logical Analysis - The market is oscillating. After reflecting various negative factors, the downward space is limited. The overall supply - demand situation of domestic soybean meal is relatively loose, and the price pressure of US and Brazilian soybeans is still obvious. Rapeseed meal prices lack significant fluctuations, and the price spreads of both soybean meal and rapeseed meal are affected by macro and supply - demand factors [10]. 3.5 Trading Strategies - **Single - sided Trading**: Stay on the sidelines. - **Arbitrage**: Engage in the M11 - 1 calendar spread. - **Options**: Sell a wide - straddle structure [11][12]. 3.6 Soybean Pressing Profits - Pressing profits vary by source and shipping date. For example, the pressing profit from Argentine soybeans in November was - 65.45 for the futures market and - 110.25 for the spot market, showing a decline compared to the previous day [12].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The agricultural product sector shows mixed trends. Pig prices are falling due to ample supply and weak demand, while corn prices are rebounding due to factors such as partial grain depot purchases and reduced supply in North China. Egg prices are also falling due to high inventory. Other products like soybean meal, palm oil, etc., each have their own supply - demand and price trends [1]. Summary by Variety 1. Pig - The main 2601 contract of pigs has tumbled. In October, the supply of market - suitable pigs is abundant, and pork consumption has entered the traditional off - season. The contract price has fallen below all moving averages, and the technical indicators are weak. The recommended strategy is to hold a light short position, with support at 11800 and resistance at 12000 [2]. 2. Corn - The main 2601 contract of corn continues to rebound. Although the supply of new grain in the Northeast is increasing, some grain depots are purchasing, and the supply in North China is reduced due to rainy weather. The futures price has stood above the 10 - day moving average, and the recommended strategy is to hold a light long position, with support at 2126 and resistance at 2150 [3]. 3. Soybean Meal - Soybean meal is oscillating downward due to ample supply. The domestic inventory of imported soybeans is increasing, and the spot price difference is under pressure. The contract price is below the moving average system, and the recommended strategy is to hold a light short position, with support at 2890 and resistance at 2928 [5]. 4. Palm Oil - The main 2601 contract of palm oil is narrowly oscillating and weakly fluctuating. The export data of Malaysian palm oil is good, but the domestic supply - demand situation is weak. The recommended strategy is short - term trading, with support at 9262 and resistance at 9390 [9]. 5. Soybean Oil - The main 2601 contract of soybean oil is narrowly fluctuating. The supply of domestic soybeans is sufficient, and the inventory pressure is high. The recommended strategy is short - term trading, with support at 8262 and resistance at 8302 [10]. 6. Egg - The main 2512 contract of eggs has fallen. The egg - laying hen inventory is at a historical high, and the supply is loose. The contract price is below the moving average system, and the recommended strategy is to hold a light short position, with support at 2770 and resistance at 2820 [12]. 7. Cotton - The main 2601 contract of cotton is oscillating and rebounding. The supply of new cotton in Xinjiang is increasing, but the downstream demand is weak. The contract price has rebounded to the 10 - day moving average, and the recommended strategy is to try a light long position, with support at 13290 and resistance at 13400 [16]. 8. Sugar - The main 2601 contract of sugar has a limited low - level rebound. The global sugar supply is in surplus, and the domestic sugar consumption is in the off - season. The contract price is below the moving average system, and the recommended strategy is to hold a light short position, with support at 5382 and resistance at 5420 [17][19]. 9. Apple - The main 2601 contract of apples has broken down. The new apple listing volume is expected to increase, and the high price has led to a wait - and - see attitude among merchants. The contract price has fallen below the 10 - day moving average, and the recommended strategy is to close long positions and try a light short position, with support at 8434 and resistance at 8580 [20]. 10. Red Date - The main 2601 contract of red dates has broken through and risen significantly. The demand is warming up, and the inventory is decreasing. The contract price has stood above the moving average system, and the recommended strategy is to hold a light long position, with support at 11145 and resistance at 11500 [23].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the industry investment rating in the provided report. 2. Core Views of the Report - **Soybean Oil**: The current inventory in China continues to accumulate with sufficient supply, but in the fourth - quarter consumption peak, the inventory is expected to stop increasing and decline, and the futures price center may move up slightly. Short - term prices may fluctuate due to sufficient inventory, while the medium - to - long - term outlook is positive [3]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: The market is bearish due to the expected relaxation of Canadian rapeseed - related policies. However, domestic supply will gradually tighten, and enterprises are strongly willing to hold prices. It is recommended to wait and see or use options to protect positions [3]. - **Palm Oil**: The price of the main contract dropped on Wednesday. The medium - to - long - term price outlook is positive, and it is recommended to go long after the price stabilizes [4]. - **Soybean Meal and Bean No. 2**: Global soybean production areas have good weather, and domestic supply is abundant. The price of soybean meal is expected to remain weak, and it is recommended to short lightly or sell out - of - the - money call options. For bean No. 2, it is recommended to wait and see [4]. - **Rapeseed Meal**: The price is weak. Although there is limited upside drive, the downside space is also limited. It is recommended to go long on the 01 contract rapeseed oil - meal ratio [4]. - **Corn and Corn Starch**: The external market is under pressure, and the domestic market has a bearish background. It is recommended to hold short positions cautiously [5]. - **Soybean No. 1**: With new domestic soybeans on the market and active downstream purchases, it is recommended to go long lightly [6]. - **Peanuts**: The new - season output increase expectation is discounted. It is recommended to hold long positions for now [6]. - **Hogs**: The spot price has rebounded after falling. It is recommended to wait and see in the short - term and go long on the 2607 contract after capacity reduction is confirmed [7][8]. - **Eggs**: The futures price has rebounded from the bottom. It is recommended to wait and see or go long on the 2512 contract at low prices [8]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 First Part: Plate Strategy Recommendation 3.1.1 Market Judgment - **Oilseeds**: Bean No. 1 is expected to be volatile and bullish, and it is recommended to go long lightly; Bean No. 2 is expected to be volatile and adjusted, and it is recommended to wait and see; Peanuts are expected to be volatile and adjusted, and it is recommended to wait and see [11]. - **Oils**: Soybean oil is expected to rise with fluctuations, and it is recommended to go long lightly; Rapeseed oil is expected to be volatile and adjusted, and it is recommended to wait and see; Palm oil is expected to be volatile and adjusted, and it is recommended to go long after stabilization [11]. - **Proteins**: Soybean meal is expected to be volatile and adjusted, and it is recommended to hold short positions; Rapeseed meal is expected to be volatile and adjusted, and it is recommended to wait and see [11]. - **Energy and By - products**: Corn and corn starch are expected to be under pressure, and it is recommended to hold short positions cautiously [11]. - **Livestock Farming**: Hogs and eggs are expected to find the bottom with fluctuations, and it is recommended to wait and see [11]. 3.1.2 Commodity Arbitrage - **Inter - period Arbitrage**: Most varieties are recommended to wait and see, while hogs and eggs are recommended to conduct positive arbitrage at low prices [12]. - **Inter - variety Arbitrage**: For some oil and protein varieties, it is recommended to conduct long or short operations, and for oil - meal ratios, it is recommended to go long [12]. 3.1.3 Basis and Spot - Futures Strategies The report provides spot prices, price changes, and basis information for various varieties in different sectors [13]. 3.2 Second Part: Key Data Tracking Table 3.2.1 Oils and Oilseeds - **Daily Data**: It includes import cost data for soybeans, rapeseeds, and palm oil from different origins and shipping dates [15][16]. - **Weekly Data**: It shows inventory and operating rate data for various oilseeds and oils, such as soybeans, rapeseeds, and their related products [17]. 3.2.2 Feed - **Daily Data**: It provides import cost data for corn from Argentina and Brazil [17]. - **Weekly Data**: It includes data on corn consumption, inventory, and starch enterprise operating rate and inventory [18]. 3.2.3 Livestock Farming - **Daily Data**: It shows the daily price changes of hogs and eggs in different regions [19][20]. - **Weekly Data**: It provides key weekly data on hogs and eggs, including price, cost, profit, and production - related data [21][23]. 3.3 Third Part: Fundamental Tracking Charts - **Livestock Farming (Hogs and Eggs)**: It includes charts of futures and spot prices, and other related data of hogs and eggs [25][28]. - **Oils and Oilseeds**: It includes charts of production, inventory, import, and price spread data for palm oil, soybean oil, and peanuts [33][44][53]. - **Feed**: It includes charts of price, inventory, consumption, and profit data for corn, corn starch, rapeseed, and soybean meal [59][66][77]. 3.4 Fourth Part: Options Situation of Feed, Livestock Farming, and Oils It includes charts of historical volatility, trading volume, and open interest of options for various varieties [92]. 3.5 Fifth Part: Warehouse Receipt Situation of Feed, Livestock Farming, and Oils It includes charts of warehouse receipt quantities for various varieties [95].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Short - medium term relative strength ranking: Oils > Sugar > Meal > Corn > Cotton > Livestock [2] - Short - medium term long - short allocation suggestions: Long palm oil 01 and sugar 01; short cotton 01 and egg 01 [2] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1上期策略回顾 - **豆粕**: Recommended to go long M2601 on dips with a stop - loss at 2900 - 2950. From September 22 to October 14, M2601 fell 132 points to 2902. The Argentine government's export tax suspension policy and other factors led to a weak performance [12]. - **玉米**: Recommended to go short corn 11 contract on rallies. After the National Day, the spot price dropped sharply, and the futures price also followed suit, breaking below 2100 yuan/ton, with a good strategy performance [12]. - **油脂**: Recommended to go long palm oil 01 contract. From September 22 to October 14, the price was basically flat. The Argentine export tax suspension and the MPOB report affected the price trend [13]. - **棉花**: Recommended to hold the short position of the 1 - month contract and the reverse spread strategy of the 11 - 1 contract. The short position of the 1 - month contract was profitable by 3%, while the reverse spread strategy was not successful [14]. - **白糖**: Recommended to go long SR601 on dips. Affected by the Sino - US trade war and other factors, the strategy performed poorly [14]. - **强弱配置策略**: In the past month from September 19 to October 15, the overall performance of agricultural products was weak. The long - short allocation strategy achieved a 1.7% profit [15][16]. 3.2本期策略推荐 3.2.1单边策略 - **棕榈油**: Bullish in 3 months. Although the inventory in October and the delay of Indonesia's B50 policy will suppress the rise of the 01 contract, the coming of the production reduction season, the increasing probability of La Nina, and the support of Indonesia's B40 policy are still positive factors. It is recommended to go long the 01 contract with a stop - loss at 9000, a short - term take - profit at 9600, and a medium - long - term target of 9800 - 10000 yuan [19]. - **白糖**: Bullish in 3 months. In the fourth quarter, the supply of Brazilian sugar will decrease, and considering the production costs of major producers, the export threshold of India, and the CFTC positions, the downside space of the outer market is limited. The domestic sugar market pricing will shift to domestic new - season sugar, and the SR601 contract has long - allocation value. It is recommended to go long on dips with a take - profit at 5600 - 5700 and a stop - loss at 5350 [19]. 3.2.2套利策略 No relevant content provided. 3.2.3推荐策略逻辑详述及相关指标跟踪 - **油脂板块**: The long - term logic of long - allocating palm oil remains unchanged. In the short term, the inventory in October and the delay of B50 will suppress the 01 contract, but the production reduction season and the demand for Indonesia to catch up with the B40 progress are positive. It is recommended to go long the 01 contract at 9200 - 9300 yuan with a take - profit around 9600 yuan [22][23]. - **白糖板块**: Internationally, Brazil's sugar production will decline, the production expectations of India and Thailand need to be verified, the production costs of major producers are high, and the CFTC positions indicate limited downside space. Domestically, the import volume will decrease in the fourth quarter, and the market pricing will shift to domestic new - season sugar. It is recommended to go long the SR601 contract on dips [28][29][32]. 3.3农产品品种间强弱排序 3.3.1农产品各主要品种观点 - **豆粕**: In the short - medium term, it is supported by cost but suppressed by supply and demand. The supply of imported soybeans in the fourth quarter is sufficient, but there may be a supply shortage from February to the arrival of new - season Brazilian soybeans [51]. - **菜粕**: Similar to bean粕, affected by policies. The spot basis of rapeseed meal is stronger than that of bean粕 [51]. - **棕榈油**: In the short term, the rise of the 01 contract is restricted, but it is expected to strengthen in the fourth quarter. In the medium - long term, it is expected to continue to rise [51]. - **豆油**: It has been oscillating recently, lacking a clear driving force, and needs to pay attention to the progress of Sino - US relations [51]. - **菜油**: It has been weak recently, affected by the possible relaxation of Sino - Canadian relations and the arrival of new - season Russian rapeseed [51]. - **玉米**: It is expected to find the bottom through oscillation in the short term and then rebound. The price center is expected to remain relatively stable [53]. - **玉米淀粉**: It is expected to follow corn to find the bottom first and then gradually build the bottom and rebound. The futures rice - flour price difference is expected to remain low and oscillate [53]. - **鸡蛋**: The supply pressure in the fourth quarter is difficult to ease significantly. It is recommended to go short the JD2511 contract and pay attention to the anti - spread strategy [53]. - **生猪**: The futures price is trading the problem of oversupply. The seasonal rebound drive of the 1 - month contract is not as strong as the drag of inventory reduction on the spot price [53]. - **白糖**: In the fourth quarter, the supply of Brazilian sugar will decrease, and the domestic sugar market pricing will shift to domestic new - season sugar. The SR601 contract has long - allocation value [54]. - **棉花**: In the short - medium term, it will be under pressure, and the low point may appear in November. In the long term, it is cautiously optimistic [54]. - **橡胶**: It is expected to oscillate and weaken in the fourth quarter, but the price may rebound if the raw material decline is slow [54]. 3.3.2主要指标跟踪 - **资金面动态**: In the past month from September 15 to October 15, the capital scale of the agricultural product futures sector was basically stable, with a slight net outflow. The net outflow of funds in the bean and oil sectors was relatively large, while the soft commodities, agricultural and sideline products (especially livestock), and grains had varying degrees of net inflows [55]. - **各品种基差及基差率（2025年10月15日）**: The report provides the basis and basis rate data of various agricultural product varieties on October 15, 2025 [59]. - **农产品期货强弱排序及多空配置策略**: In the short - medium term, it is recommended to long - allocate palm oil 01 and sugar 01 and short - allocate cotton 01 and egg 01. In the medium - long term, it is recommended to long - allocate oils on dips and short - allocate sugar, livestock, and eggs on rallies [66][67].

Group 1: Report Summary - The report focuses on the soybean and soybean meal market, covering supply, demand, and inventory aspects [6][7] Group 2: Market Data Basis Data - On October 15, the basis of the soybean meal main contract in Zhangjiagang was 13, down 15; the basis of 43% soybean meal spot in Tianjin was 83, down 35; in Rizhao it was 63, down 15; in Dongguan it was down 15; in Zhanjiang it was 53, down 15; in Fangcheng it was 33, down 15; the basis of rapeseed meal spot in Guangdong was 127, down 15; MJ - 5 was 177, up 3 [4] Spread Data - The spot spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal in Guangdong was 300; the spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal in the main contract was 560; RM1 - 5 was 59 [5] Other Data - The US - dollar - to - RMB exchange rate was 7.0868; the盘面榨利 was - 215.00 yuan/ton; the 2025 import soybean盘面毛利 was 285 yuan/ton [5] Group 3: Supply Analysis - Due to less rainfall in US soybean - producing areas after August, the estimated 2025/26 US soybean yield of 53.5 bushels per acre by USDA may still be lowered; recent less rainfall in US soybean - producing areas is conducive to harvest progress; affected by the US government shutdown, the USDA crop growth report was delayed. As of October 5, the US soybean harvest progress was 38%. Brazilian soybean planting has started, and as of October 4, the sowing rate was 8.2%, much higher than 5.1% last year and close to the five - year average of 9.4%. In October, domestic soybeans are expected to start destocking, but the domestic soybean meal supply in the fourth quarter is still expected to be abundant. If China cannot purchase US soybeans, the soybean meal supply in the first quarter of next year needs to be supplemented, and the source is undetermined [6][7] Group 4: Demand Analysis - Livestock and poultry are expected to maintain high inventory in the short term, supporting feed demand. However, the breeding industry is currently in a loss, and national policies tend to control the inventory and weight of pigs, which may affect the supply in the far - term. Soybean meal has a relatively high cost - performance ratio, and downstream spot goods transactions are good [7] Group 5: Inventory Analysis - Domestic soybean inventory has reached a high level; this week, the soybean meal inventory of oil mills decreased and is currently at a high level; the number of days of soybean meal inventory in feed enterprises decreased [7] Group 6: Market Outlook - Due to the repeated emotions in Sino - US trade negotiations and the poor profit of domestic ship - buying and crushing, the ship - buying progress is expected to be affected. In the short term, limited by the uncertainty of Sino - US trade policies and the high domestic inventory, the market is expected to maintain low - level fluctuations [7]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Oils and Fats: Oscillating [5] - Protein Meals: Oscillating [5] - Corn/Starch: Oscillating [7] - Pigs: Oscillating weakly [8] - Natural Rubber: Oscillating [9] - Synthetic Rubber: Oscillating [11] - Cotton: Oscillating weakly [13] - Sugar: Oscillating weakly [14] - Pulp: Oscillating weakly [16] - Offset Paper: Oscillating [18] - Logs: Oscillating weakly [20] 2. Core Views of the Report - The overall sentiment in the agricultural market has improved, but the trends are differentiated. For example, NR in natural rubber has rebounded significantly, while other varieties show different degrees of oscillation or weak trends [1][9]. - Due to various factors such as policy, supply - demand relationship, and weather, different agricultural products face different market situations. Some are affected by short - term policies and show short - term rebounds, while others are suppressed by long - term supply and demand and show weak trends [7][13]. 3. Summaries Based on Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Oils and Fats - **View**: May continue to oscillate, waiting for further information. Due to the uncertainty of US soybean demand, the US soybean and soybean oil markets are in a state of oscillation. The domestic oil market is also affected by factors such as the US government "shutdown", trade situation, and production expectations of Brazil [5]. - **Logic**: From a macro perspective, the US government "shutdown", the repeated Sino - US trade situation, and the strong expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut affect the market. From an industrial perspective, the suspension of US soybean data updates, the expected reduction of US soybean exports, the expected increase in Brazilian soybean production, and the slow de - stocking of domestic soybean oil all contribute to the oscillation of the oil market [5]. 3.2 Protein Meals - **View**: The market continues to oscillate at a low level. Pay attention to the changes in Sino - US trade relations. - **Logic**: Internationally, the harvest of US soybeans is progressing smoothly, but the export prospects are not good. Brazil's soybean sowing progress is fast. Domestically, the short - term downstream inventory is not low, and the supply pressure is large. In the long term, the supply of domestic soybean meal is expected to increase in the fourth quarter, and the demand for soybean meal may increase steadily, while rapeseed meal follows the trend of soybean meal [5]. 3.3 Corn/Starch - **View**: The State Council's guidance to actively enter the market for procurement boosts sentiment, and the futures price rebounds. - **Logic**: The price of domestic corn is running weakly. The pressure of new grain listing is still there, but the launch of reserve grain procurement provides some support. In the long term, the corn market is expected to be short - term bearish and long - term bullish [7]. 3.4 Pigs - **View**: A small amount of second - fattening pigs enter the market, and the pig price rebounds at a low level. - **Logic**: In the short term, the supply pressure continues to increase, and the demand enters the off - season after the National Day. In the long term, if the "anti - involution" policy to reduce production is implemented, the supply pressure is expected to ease in the second half of 2026 [7][8]. 3.5 Natural Rubber - **View**: The sentiment has improved, but the trends are differentiated. NR has rebounded significantly. - **Logic**: The performance of NR is stronger than that of RU. The reasons include the low import volume of standard rubber, few warehouse receipts, and strong raw materials. The demand is expected to remain stable, and the macro factors have a greater impact on the price. It is recommended to wait and see or continue to pay attention to narrowing the spread [1][9][10]. 3.6 Synthetic Rubber - **View**: Driven by natural rubber, it rebounds slightly. - **Logic**: The BR futures price follows the trend of NR. The high production volume throughout the year is a major pressure on the futures price. The growth rate of demand is lower than that of production, and the social inventory remains high. The raw material price is weak, and the supply is abundant, so the price is difficult to improve significantly [11]. 3.7 Cotton - **View**: The cotton price oscillates at a low level. - **Logic**: The expected increase in China's cotton production in the 25/26 season has led to a decline in the futures price. After the National Day, the decline has slowed down. Future attention should be paid to the purchase price of new cotton, Sino - US trade negotiations, and the actual production of new cotton [12][13]. 3.8 Sugar - **View**: The sugar price continues to oscillate weakly. - **Logic**: Internationally, the export volume of Brazilian sugar is increasing, and the international trade flow is loose. Domestically, the import volume is high, the sales are average, and the industrial inventory is increasing. In the long term, the global sugar market is expected to have an oversupply in the 25/26 season [14]. 3.9 Pulp - **View**: The weak rebound continues. - **Logic**: The futures price of pulp has increased due to the large virtual - to - real ratio of the 01 contract and the possible shortage of deliverable warehouse receipts. However, there are many negative factors in the fundamentals, and the positive factors in the industrial end have limited driving force [15][16]. 3.10 Offset Paper - **View**: It oscillates in a narrow range. - **Logic**: The fundamentals of offset paper have not changed significantly. The publishing tenders in Shandong and Jiangsu are starting, and there is pressure to reduce prices. The supply is increasing, and the demand is limited, so the paper price may decline slightly after the festival [18]. 3.11 Logs - **View**: Affected by the delivery side, the futures price oscillates at a low level. - **Logic**: The main contradictions in the log market are the negative impact of domestic timber delivery in Chongqing and the failure of the peak - season expectation in the fundamentals. The demand is weak, the inventory is not low, and the willingness of buyers to take delivery is not strong. The futures price may oscillate in the range of 790 - 840 [20].

Report Information - Report Name: Nanhua Futures Corn & Starch Industry Daily Report - Date: October 16, 2025 - Analyst: Dai Hongxu (Investment Consultation License No.: Z0021819) - Research Assistant: Kang Quangui (Qualification Certificate No.: F03148699) - Investment Consultation Business Qualification: CSRC License [2011] No. 1290 [1] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The near - month contract of the Dalian Commodity Exchange corn futures rebounded after quickly breaking below the 2,100 yuan mark, pricing in bullish factors such as increased spot buyers, the judgment of short - term negative and long - term positive impacts of corn quality issues in North China, and the release of downward momentum after the futures price approached the cost line [2]. - The structure of the contracts shows a pattern of near - term weakness and far - term strength, with the 1 - 5 spread widening to nearly 100 yuan/ton. The pricing of the forward contracts reflects the market's relatively optimistic sentiment towards the corn market next year, while the near - month contracts are still under pressure from the new grain listing. Although there is a short - term rebound, the upward space may be limited [2]. - The spot market is weaker than the futures market, with prices mostly falling. The listing of new grain continues to dominate the market, and the pressure on the spot market needs time to digest. Attention should be paid to the end of the month when the new grain harvest nears its end, which may be an important node for spot prices [2]. - The CBOT corn futures price has been oscillating narrowly after breaking through support, and the delay in report releases due to the government shutdown has left the market lacking guidance [2]. Summary by Content Market Conditions - **Futures Prices**: On October 15, 2025, compared with October 14, corn futures prices generally rose. Corn 11 rose by 8 yuan to 2,101 yuan, with a 0.38% increase; Corn 01 rose by 16 yuan to 2,127 yuan, with a 0.76% increase; Corn 03 rose by 17 yuan to 2,157 yuan, with a 0.79% increase; Corn 05 rose by 16 yuan to 2,218 yuan, with a 0.73% increase; Corn 07 rose by 14 yuan to 2,232 yuan, with a 0.63% increase; Corn 09 remained unchanged at 2,247 yuan. Corn starch futures prices also mostly rose. Corn starch 11 rose by 16 yuan to 2,401 yuan, with a 0.67% increase; Corn starch 01 rose by 17 yuan to 2,418 yuan, with a 0.71% increase; Corn starch 03 rose by 13 yuan to 2,435 yuan, with a 0.54% increase; Corn starch 05 rose by 12 yuan to 2,529 yuan, with a 0.48% increase; Corn starch 07 rose by 12 yuan to 2,539 yuan, with a 0.47% increase; Corn starch 09 rose by 1 yuan to 2,571 yuan, with a 0.04% increase [3][6]. - **Spot Prices**: Among corn spot prices, the price at Jinzhou Port was 2,130 yuan, down 10 yuan; the price at Shekou Port was 2,310 yuan, unchanged; the price in Harbin was 2,000 yuan, down 20 yuan. Among corn starch spot prices, the price in Shandong was 2,740 yuan, unchanged; the price in Jilin was 2,550 yuan, unchanged; the price in Heilongjiang was 2,460 yuan, unchanged [3]. - **Base Difference**: The Jinzhou Port main - continuous base difference of corn was 29 yuan, down 18 yuan; the Shandong main - continuous base difference of corn starch was 339 yuan, down 16 yuan [3]. - **US Corn Market**: The CBOT corn main - continuous contract was at 417.25 cents, up 4 cents, with a 0.97% increase. The COBT soybean main - continuous contract was at 1,007 cents, up 0.75 cents, with a 0.07% increase. The CBOT wheat main - continuous contract was at 498.75 cents, down 1.5 cents, with a - 0.3% decrease. The duty - paid price at the US Gulf was 2,090.31 yuan, up 8.74 yuan, with a 0.42% increase, and the import profit was 219.69 yuan. The duty - paid price at the US West Coast was 1,941.98 yuan, up 8.6 yuan, with a 0.44% increase, and the import profit was 368.02 yuan [29]. Factors Affecting the Market - **Bullish Factors**: The types of spot buyers have increased, which eases market pressure; the pressure of domestic corn production increase is limited, imports remain at a low level, and the market is expected to show resilience after the seasonal pressure [5]. - **Bearish Factors**: The pig industry is in the process of capacity regulation, which may affect the feed demand for corn in the medium term; the release of the new - season supply pressure still takes time, and the price is in the process of bottom - seeking or at the bottom; the number of trucks arriving in Shandong remains high, and the purchase price mostly falls; North China will experience another rainfall process, putting continued pressure on the spot market [5].