Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating in the given content. Group 2: Report's Core View - For the vegetable oil market, the report indicates that the market is showing a differentiated trend. Rapeseed oil is the strongest, soybean oil is testing key support levels, and palm oil is the weakest. Given the downward break of palm oil, it is advisable to short on rallies. For the protein (bean meal and rapeseed meal) market, after the continuous decline of the double - meal on the futures market, the premium risk from the previous rally has been cleared, and the futures market has completed a round of basis washing and pricing operations. The continuous increase in the trading volume of the spot basis indicates that the low price has attracted market purchases, and the room for further decline is limited. It is recommended to stage new long positions [1][3][4]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Vegetable Oil Market 1. Market Review - On November 24, due to weak demand and rising inventory build - up expectations, Malaysian palm oil weakened, and Dalian palm oil led the decline in the vegetable oil sector. The main soybean oil contract Y2601 closed at 8090 yuan/ton, down 0.66% from the previous day's closing price, with a daily reduction of 1345 lots. The secondary main soybean oil contract Y2605 closed at 7890 yuan/ton, down 0.70% from the previous day's closing price, with a daily increase of 1079 lots. The main palm oil contract P2601 closed at 8360 yuan/ton, down 1.48% from the previous day's closing price, with a daily increase of 1873 lots. The secondary main palm oil contract P2605 closed at 8442 yuan/ton, down 1.52% from the previous day's closing price, with a daily increase of 19203 lots. The main rapeseed oil contract OI2601 closed at 9818 yuan/ton, up 0.41% from the previous day's closing price, with a daily reduction of 21536 lots. The secondary main rapeseed oil contract OI2605 closed at 9488 yuan/ton, up 0.70% from the previous day's closing price, with a daily increase of 3779 lots [1]. 2. Important Information - On November 25, NYMEX crude oil futures fell about 1% due to progress in the Russia - Ukraine peace agreement. If sanctions on Russian energy trade are lifted, the international crude oil market will be under pressure. The most actively traded January crude oil futures contract on NYMEX fell 0.89 cents, or 1.5%, to settle at $57.95 a barrel. - The US government is considering delaying the proposed plan to cut subsidies for imported biofuels by one to two years. The plan, originally scheduled to take effect on January 1, 2026, aims to reduce dependence on imported biofuels and improve the competitiveness of domestic fuels. - The Brazilian government may not be able to increase the biodiesel blending ratio from 15% to 16% before March 2026, and achieving this goal is "extremely difficult". - From November 1 - 20, Malaysia's palm oil production increased by 10.32% month - on - month, with the fresh fruit bunch (FFB) yield increasing by 7.96% month - on - month and the oil extraction rate (OER) increasing by 0.45% month - on - month. - From November 1 - 25, Malaysia's palm oil exports were 987,978 tons, a 16.4% decrease compared to the 1,182,216 tons exported from October 1 - 25. - In October, India's palm oil imports dropped to the lowest level in five months, causing the palm oil imports in the 2024/25 fiscal year to decline by 16% to 7.56 million tons, the lowest in five years. - As of the 47th week of 2025, the total inventory of the three major edible oils in China was 2.4348 million tons, an increase of 23,100 tons from the previous week, a month - on - month increase of 0.96% and a year - on - year increase of 11.40%. Among them, soybean oil inventory was 1.404 million tons, an increase of 31,300 tons from the previous week, a month - on - month increase of 2.28% and a year - on - year increase of 14.28%; edible palm oil inventory was 591,600 tons, an increase of 35,100 tons from the previous week, a month - on - month increase of 6.31% and a year - on - year increase of 24.63%; rapeseed oil inventory was 439,300 tons, a decrease of 43,300 tons from the previous week, a month - on - month decrease of 8.97% and a year - on - year decrease of 8.95% [1][3]. 3. Market Logic - Externally, the US is promoting peace between Russia and Ukraine, causing international crude oil to continue to decline under pressure. At the same time, the US domestic biodiesel policy is fluctuating, causing US soybean oil to rise first and then fall. India's palm oil import data has dropped significantly, and the palm oil production in Southeast Asia has not significantly decreased, leading to market concerns about increased inventory pressure and the downward break of Malaysian palm oil. Domestically, the supply of vegetable oil raw materials is sufficient, and the overall inventory of domestic vegetable oils is in good condition, resulting in a weak basis for soybean oil. However, domestic oil mills have been suffering continuous losses in import and crushing profits, and they face huge profit pressure. There may be price - supporting actions in the future. The poor export data of Malaysian palm oil and its downward break have dragged down the domestic palm oil to follow the weak trend. The domestic rapeseed inventory is zero, and the domestic rapeseed oil inventory is still being depleted. The rapeseed oil at East China ports continues to be destocked, while the destocking rhythm in other regions is relatively slow. The spot price fluctuates with the futures market, and the basis quotes are generally stable with slight adjustments [1][3]. 4. Trading Strategy - For single - side trading, all previous long positions in palm oil should be closed, and shorting on rallies should be the main strategy. Soybean oil is testing the support level, and if it breaks below, the downward space will open up. Rapeseed oil should be treated as strong. The resistance level for the Y2601 contract is 9000, and the support level is 8000; for the Y2605 contract, the resistance level is 8400, and the support level is 7840; for the P2601 contract, the resistance level is 8562, and the support level is 8270; for the P2605 contract, the resistance level is 8626, and the support level is 8200; for the OI2601 contract, the resistance level is 12000, and the support level is 9299; for the OI2605 contract, the resistance level is 12000, and the support level is 9000. There is no arbitrage strategy provided [1][3]. Protein (Bean Meal and Rapeseed Meal) Market 1. Market Review - On November 25, the domestic protein sector showed a differentiated trend, with rapeseed meal being strong and bean meal being weak, presenting a pattern of near - term weakness and long - term strength. The main bean meal contract M2601 closed at 3013 yuan/ton, up 0.07% from the previous day's closing price, with a daily reduction of 33,444 lots; the secondary main bean meal contract M2605 closed at a certain price (not clearly stated in a convenient way in the text), up 0.18% from the previous day's closing price, with a daily increase of 2820 lots. The main rapeseed meal contract RM2601 closed at 2431 yuan/ton, down 0.61% from the previous day's closing price, with a daily reduction of 4625 lots; the secondary main rapeseed meal contract RM2605 closed at 2385 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day's closing price, with a daily increase of 7383 lots [3]. 2. Important Information - In 2026, the US soybean planting area will increase by 4%, from 81.1 million acres in 2025 to 84.5 million acres. - Since November 10, China has resumed the soybean import licenses of three US companies: CHS, the grain department of Louis Dreyfus, and EGT. - As of November 13, the sowing of the 2025/26 Brazilian soybean crop was 71% complete, higher than the 61% a week ago but lower than the 80% at the same time last year. - The 2025/26 Brazilian soybean production is predicted to reach 178.9 million tons, higher than the previous estimate of 175 million tons by the US Department of Agriculture. - In November, Brazil's soybean exports are expected to reach 4.71 million tons, higher than the previous estimate of 4.26 million tons and a 101% increase compared to 2.339 million tons in November last year. - There are rumors in the market that there are problems with the import procedures for Australian rapeseed, which may delay the crushing time. The Russian government has decided to cancel the price - reduction coefficient for railway transportation of food products starting from 2026. Although rapeseed meal is not included, it is necessary to pay attention to whether Russian rapeseed is included, which may indirectly increase the cost of by - products. - As of the 47th week of 2025, the total inventory of imported soybeans in China was 7.78 million tons, an increase of 158,000 tons from the previous week. The total inventory of imported rapeseed was 0 tons, the same as the previous week. The domestic bean meal inventory was 1.136 million tons, an increase of 137,000 tons from the previous week, a 13.76% month - on - month increase; the contract volume was 5.264 million tons, a decrease of 607,000 tons from the previous week, a 10.34% month - on - month decrease. The inventory of imported and crushed rapeseed meal was 0 tons, a decrease of 200 tons from the previous week, a 100% month - on - month decrease; the contract volume was 0 tons, a decrease of 200 tons from the previous week, a 100% month - on - month decrease [3][4]. 3. Market Logic - Externally, the expected demand from China has cooled down, causing US soybeans to face pressure at high levels. In the spot market, oil mills have been suffering continuous losses in crushing profits, so there may be a need for oil mills to support prices. With the expected cost support from state - reserved soybeans, the downward space for futures prices is limited. For rapeseed meal in the spot market, the rapeseed inventory remains at zero, and oil mills have shut down completely. The rapeseed meal inventory is 0 tons. There are rumors in the market that there are problems with the import procedures for Australian rapeseed, which may delay the crushing time. The Russian government's decision to cancel the price - reduction coefficient for railway transportation of food products starting from 2026 may indirectly increase the cost of by - products. After the continuous decline of the double - meal on the futures market, the premium risk from the previous rally has been cleared, and the futures market has completed a round of basis washing and pricing operations. The continuous increase in the trading volume of the spot basis indicates that the low price has attracted market purchases, and the room for further decline is limited [3][4]. 4. Trading Strategy - For single - side trading, long positions should be established in the far - month 2605 and 2607 contracts of bean meal, and a small number of new long positions should be entered for rapeseed meal. The resistance level for the M2601 contract is 3190, and the support level is 2685; for the M2605 contract, the resistance level is 3000, and the support level is 2549; for the RM2601 contract, the resistance level is 2620, and the support level is 2280; for the RM2605 contract, the resistance level is 2500, and the support level is 2270. There is no arbitrage strategy provided [4][5].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The rapeseed meal RM2601 will fluctuate in the range of 2400 - 2460. The market is waiting for the final result of the anti - dumping ruling on Canadian rapeseed imports. Although the peak season for rapeseed meal spot demand has passed, low inventory supports the market. The market will maintain range - bound fluctuations in the short term, affected by soybean meal and the uncertain Sino - Canadian trade relations [9]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Tips - Rapeseed meal fluctuates and closes higher, driven by soybean meal and technical shock consolidation. The market is waiting for the final result of the anti - dumping ruling on Canadian rapeseed imports. The short - term market is affected by soybean meal and maintains range - bound fluctuations [9]. 3.2 Recent News - Domestic aquaculture has entered the off - season after the long holiday, and the supply in the spot market is expected to be tight in the short term. The demand is gradually decreasing, suppressing the market. Canadian rapeseed is in the harvesting stage, but Sino - Canadian trade issues have reduced short - term exports and domestic supply expectations. - China's preliminary anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed imports has been established, and an import deposit of 75.8% has been imposed. The final ruling is still uncertain. - Global rapeseed production has increased this year, especially in Canada. - The Russia - Ukraine conflict continues. The reduction in Ukraine's rapeseed production and the increase in Russia's production offset each other. Geopolitical conflicts may support commodity prices [11]. 3.3 Long and Short Concerns - **Likely to Rise**: China's preliminary anti - dumping determination on Canadian rapeseed imports and the relatively low inventory pressure of rapeseed meal in oil mills [12]. - **Likely to Fall**: The domestic rapeseed meal demand is gradually entering the off - season, and there is still a small probability of reconciliation in the final result of the anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed imports [12]. - **Main Logic**: The market focuses on domestic aquaculture demand and the expectation of the Canadian rapeseed tariff war [12]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - **Price and Basis**: The spot price is 2530, and the basis is 99, indicating a premium over the futures, which is a positive factor [9]. - **Inventory**: Rapeseed meal inventory is 1.75 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2.78% and a year - on - year decrease of 20.45%, which is a positive factor [9]. - **Market**: The price is below the 20 - day moving average and moving downward, which is a negative factor [9]. - **Trading Data**: From November 17th to 25th, the average price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal fluctuated slightly. The trading volume of soybean meal varied, while the trading volume of rapeseed meal was 0 [13]. 3.5 Position Data - The number of long positions of the main force has decreased, and funds have flowed out [9]. 3.6 Rapeseed Meal Futures and Spot Price Summary - From November 17th to 25th, the prices of rapeseed meal futures (both the main 2601 and the far - month 2605) and the spot price in Fujian fluctuated. The futures price generally showed a downward trend, and the spot price also fluctuated within a certain range [15]. 3.7 Rapeseed Meal Warehouse Receipt Statistics - From November 14th to 25th, the rapeseed meal warehouse receipts decreased significantly. From November 19th, the warehouse receipts decreased from 2745 to 0 [17]. 3.8 Other Information - Rapeseed meal futures have declined with fluctuations, and the spot price has followed the trend. The spot premium has fluctuated slightly. - The spot price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal has fluctuated slightly, and the price difference of the 2601 contract has also fluctuated slightly. - There is no shipping schedule forecast for imported rapeseed in November, and the import cost is affected by tariffs. - The inventory of rapeseed in oil mills remains low, and the inventory of rapeseed meal is also at a low level. - The rapeseed crushing volume in oil mills remains at zero. - The price of aquatic fish has declined slightly, while the price of shrimp and shellfish has remained stable [18][20][23][25][27][35].

| 棕榈油：产地去库存疑，暂时偏弱对待 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 豆油：区间震荡为主，豆棕维持做扩 | 2 | | 豆粕：移仓换月，震荡 | 4 | | 豆一：震荡 | 4 | | 玉米：震荡偏强 | 6 | | 白糖：区间整理 | 7 | | 棉花：近月合约表现强于远期合约 | 8 | | 鸡蛋：淘汰加量，存在预期支撑 | 10 | | 生猪：去库节点已至 | 11 | | 花生：关注现货 | 12 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 2025年11月26日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-农产品 观点与策略 豆油：区间震荡为主，豆棕维持做扩 | | | 【基本面跟踪】 油脂基本面数据 | | 棕榈油主力 | 单 位 元/吨 | 收盘价 (日盘） 8,360 | 涨跌幅 -1.48% | 收盘价 （夜盘） 8,336 | 涨跌幅 -0.29% | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 豆油主力 | 元/吨 | 8,144 | -0.29% | 8,090 | -0.66% | | | 菜 ...

| | | | | 操作评级 | 2025年11月25日 | | --- | --- | --- | | 昆一 | ☆☆☆ | 杨蕊霞 农产品组长 | | 豆油 | ☆☆☆ | F0285733 Z0011333 | | 棕榈油 | ☆☆☆ | 吴小明 首席分析师 | | | | F3078401 Z0015853 | | 豆粕 | ななな | 董甜甜 高级分析师 | | 菜油 | ななな | F0302203 Z0012037 | | 薬粕 | ななな | 宋腾 高级分析师 | | 玉米 | ななな | F03135787 Z0021166 | | 生猪 | ☆☆☆ | | | 鸡蛋 | な☆☆ | 010-58747784 | | | | gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | 【豆一】 国产大豆波动反复，反弹之后再度回调。目前现货市场报价稳定，市场参与者挺价意愿偏强。政策端上周仍然在进行拍卖,不 过市场预计短期拍卖量尚未对供应端带来冲击。今年国产高蛋白太豆供应趋紧，因此市场对高蛋白大豆给予乐观的预期，给整 体大豆市场带来偏强的预期。美豆方面11月份显现出中国在采购美国大豆，预计中国 ...

1. Report's Investment Rating for the Industry - No information provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The domestic soybean meal inventory still faces pressure, and the market is oscillating. The overall international soybean market supply - demand situation is relatively loose, with the US market showing a relatively strong trend, while the Brazilian soybean prices are expected to face some pressure in the medium - term. The domestic market is also in a state of relatively loose supply - demand, and the prices of soybean meal and rapeseed meal are expected to be affected by multiple factors such as international supply, domestic demand, and macro - economic conditions [3][4][5][6][8] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Quotes Review - The US soybean market is oscillating. The Brazilian soybean prices have a slight rebound, and the domestic soybean meal market is rising slightly, while the rapeseed meal is continuing to rebound. The spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal is slightly widening, and the inter - month spreads of both are falling [3] 3.2 Fundamental Analysis - **International Market**: The monthly supply - demand report is generally bullish, but the US soybean market's upward space is limited. The Brazilian new - crop soybean planting progress is fast, and the old - crop has good export and crushing performance. The Argentine old - crop soybean production is large, and the pressure on export and crushing has improved [4] - **Domestic Market**: The domestic spot market has a relatively loose supply - demand situation. The soybean meal inventory is at a high level, and the rapeseed meal demand is weakening, with a certain supply pressure [6] 3.3 Macroeconomic Analysis - The macro - economic situation is generally stable. The end of the US government shutdown and Sino - US negotiations have brought positive signals. The restoration of the soybean export qualification of three US companies to China has improved the US soybean export prospects, but the subsequent import volume still has great uncertainty [7] 3.4 Logical Analysis - The US soybean market is expected to oscillate at a high level. The Brazilian market has price support. The domestic soybean meal market is under pressure, and the rapeseed meal market may be affected by supply - side uncertainty. The inter - month spreads of soybean meal and rapeseed meal are expected to have different trends [8] 3.5 Trading Strategies - **Unilateral Trading**: Make a small - scale long - position layout - **Arbitrage**: Hold a wait - and - see attitude - **Options**: Adopt the strategy of selling wide straddles [9]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core View of the Report - The global sugar supply has shifted from shortage to surplus, putting downward pressure on raw sugar prices. The supply pressure of domestic new crops has increased year-on-year. It is expected that Zhengzhou sugar will face upward pressure and mainly follow the trend of raw sugar [4] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Domestic Sugar Spot Market - In Nanning Warehouse, Guangxi, the closing price on November 24, 2025, was 5615, with a decline of 60, a basis of 245 against SR01, and a decline of 77 in the basis [4] - In Rizhao, Shandong, the closing price was 5800, with no change, an ascension and discount of 100, a basis of 330 against SR01, and a decline of 17 in the basis [4] 3.2 Domestic Sugar Futures Market - The closing price of SR01 was 5370, with an increase of 17; the closing price of SR05 was 5319, with an increase of 17; the spread between SR01 - 05 was 51, with no change [4] 3.3 Exchange Rate and International Commodity Market - The exchange rate of RMB against the US dollar was 7.1236, with a decline of 0.0081; the exchange rate of the Brazilian real against the RMB was 1.2818, with an increase of 0.0212; the exchange rate of the Indian rupee against the RMB was 0.084, with a decline of 0.0004 [4] - The price of ICE raw sugar main contract was 14.77, with no change; the price of London white sugar main contract was 573, with an increase of 3; the price of Brent crude oil main contract was 62.51, with no change [4] 3.4 Other Data - The domestic white sugar industrial inventory was 2000 (no unit specified) [4] - The profit of Brazilian sugar imported without tariff quota was shown in the range of - 2500 to 1500 (no unit specified) [4]

Group 1: Report's Investment Rating - The report's investment rating for the industry is "Neutral" [4] Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The prices of the three major oils are oscillating under pressure due to a lack of clear guidance. The soybean supply is abundant, and the oil mill's crushing volume remains high. The market's focus has shifted from the cost of imported soybeans to the substantial supply pressure. There is also a market expectation of state reserve sales, with a relatively high probability of soybean reserve sales in the first quarter, reducing the expectation of a soybean supply shortage from February to March. Currently, soybean oil lacks upward momentum and is expected to maintain a weak oscillation. Although there are occasional abnormal weather conditions in South America, their impact is currently minimal, and future weather conditions in South American production areas should continue to be monitored [1][3] Group 3: Market Analysis Futures Market - The closing price of the palm oil 2601 contract was 8486.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 64 yuan or 0.75% from the previous day. - The closing price of the soybean oil 2601 contract was 8168.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 22.00 yuan or 0.27% from the previous day. - The closing price of the rapeseed oil 2601 contract was 9778.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 38.00 yuan or 0.39% from the previous day [1] Spot Market - The spot price of palm oil in Guangdong was 8450.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 150.00 yuan or 1.74% from the previous day, with a spot basis of P01 - 36.00, a decrease of 86.00 yuan from the previous day. - The spot price of first - grade soybean oil in Tianjin was 8360.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20.00 yuan/ton or 0.24% from the previous day, with a spot basis of Y01 + 192.00, an increase of 2.00 yuan from the previous day. - The spot price of fourth - grade rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was 10100.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 70.00 yuan or 0.69% from the previous day, with a spot basis of OI01 + 322.00, a decrease of 32.00 yuan from the previous day [1] Market News - A private exporter reported selling 123,000 tons of soybeans to China for delivery during the 2025/2026 marketing year, which starts on September 1st in the US. - As of last Thursday, the sowing rate of Brazil's 2025/26 soybean crop had reached 81% of the expected area, and the sowing area of Brazil's 2025/26 first - season corn had reached 93% of the planned area in the central - southern region. - As of November 21, 2025, the commercial inventory of soybean oil in key regions across China was 117.99 million tons, an increase of 3.14 million tons or 2.73% from the previous week. - As of November 21, 2025, the total commercial inventory of the three major oils (soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil) in key regions across China was 222.40 million tons, an increase of 0.10 million tons or 0.04% from the previous week, and a 12.84% increase compared to the same period last year. - The commercial inventory of palm oil in key regions across China was 66.71 million tons, an increase of 1.39 million tons or 2.13% from the previous week, and a 31.34% increase compared to 50.79 million tons in the same period last year. - The C&F price of Canadian rapeseed (January shipment) was 522 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 9 US dollars/ton from the previous trading day; the C&F price of Canadian rapeseed (March shipment) was 531 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 9 US dollars/ton from the previous trading day. - The C&F price of Argentine soybean oil (December shipment) was 1170 US dollars/ton, an increase of 2 US dollars/ton from the previous trading day; the C&F price of Argentine soybean oil (February shipment) was 1158 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 3 US dollars/ton from the previous trading day. - The C&F quotation of imported rapeseed oil: Canadian rapeseed oil (December shipment) was 1110 US dollars/ton, an increase of 10 US dollars/ton from the previous trading day; Canadian rapeseed oil (February shipment) was 1090 US dollars/ton, an increase of 10 US dollars/ton from the previous trading day. - The C&F price of US Gulf soybeans (December shipment) was 500 US dollars/ton, an increase of 3 US dollars/ton from the previous trading day; the C&F price of US West Coast soybeans (December shipment) was 494 US dollars/ton, an increase of 2 US dollars/ton from the previous trading day; the C&F price of Brazilian soybeans (December shipment) was 492 US dollars/ton, an increase of 1 US dollar/ton from the previous trading day. - The import soybean premium quotes: the premium for the Mexican Gulf (December shipment) was 235 cents/bushel, a decrease of 5 cents/bushel from the previous trading day; the premium for the US West Coast (December shipment) was 220 cents/bushel, a decrease of 5 cents/bushel from the previous trading day; the premium for Brazilian ports (December shipment) was 215 cents/bushel, unchanged from the previous trading day [2] Group 4: Strategy - The recommended strategy is "Neutral" [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Corn is expected to show an oscillatory upward trend, with the near - month leading the rise and the far - month following. The 2601 contract has broken through and reached a new high, and the short - term remains strong. Attention should be paid to whether the 7 and 9 - month contracts can break through the pressure range in mid - October [1]. - Soybeans are expected to oscillate. The CBOT soybeans have fallen from a 17 - month high, waiting for more details of China's procurement and Sino - US dialogue [1]. - For oilseeds, they are expected to oscillate. BMD palm oil has declined for three consecutive days, reaching the lowest price since July. Domestic palm oil leads the decline, and the total inventory of the three major oils has slightly increased [1]. - Eggs are expected to have a wide - range oscillatory trend. The futures price rebounds after reaching the previous low, and short - term long positions should be held with caution. Attention should be paid to the impact of the old chickens' slaughter on the market [1][2]. - Pigs are expected to oscillate. The short - term market is in a state of near - month weakness and far - month strength. The industry expects that the inventory of breeding sows in October will fall below 40 million tons, and attention should be paid to the opportunity of the 5, 7, and 9 - month contracts to stabilize and rebound [2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Research Views - **Corn**: From the supply side, farmers' grain - selling rhythm is slow, and the market trading is not active. Central reserve corn procurement prices and spot prices are rising. From the demand side, deep - processing enterprises purchase as needed, and feed enterprises' inventory is rising steadily. The 2601 contract has broken through, and the short - term trend is strong [1]. - **Soybeans**: CBOT soybeans have fallen from a 17 - month high. China purchased 158.4 tons last week and 12.3 tons on Monday. The US soybean inspection volume is in line with market expectations. The market is waiting for more details of Sino - US dialogue and the US government's plan for farmers [1]. - **Oilseeds**: BMD palm oil has declined for three consecutive days due to the strengthening of the Malaysian ringgit and weak demand. Domestic palm oil leads the decline, and the total inventory of the three major oils has increased slightly to 222.4 million tons due to the increase in palm oil inventory [1]. - **Eggs**: The main 2601 contract has oscillated upwards. Spot prices have increased slightly, and short - term prices in the production areas are mostly stable with a few rising. Futures prices are expected to oscillate widely, and short - term long positions should be held with caution [1][2]. - **Pigs**: The main 2601 contract has oscillated, and the far - month 7 and 9 - month contracts have gapped up. Spot prices are generally stable, and the industry expects a supply and price inflection point in the second half of 2026 [2]. Market Information - As of last Thursday, the sowing rate of Brazil's 2025/26 soybean crop has reached 81%, and the sowing area of the first - crop corn has reached 93% of the planned area in the central and southern regions [3]. - As of November 21, 2025, the total commercial inventory of the three major oils (soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil) in key areas of China has increased by 0.1 million tons to 222.4 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 12.84% [3]. - On November 24, the "Agricultural Product Wholesale Price 200 Index" and the "Vegetable Basket Product Wholesale Price Index" have both increased. The average prices of pork, beef, mutton, and eggs in the national agricultural product wholesale market have increased, while the price of white - striped chicken has decreased [3]. - The weekly soybean crushing volume of major oil mills in China has risen above 2.3 million tons, and it is expected to remain at around 2.3 million tons this week. The estimated total soybean crushing volume in November is about 8.7 million tons [4]. Variety Spreads - The report provides charts of contract spreads and contract basis for various agricultural products, including corn, soybean, oilseeds, eggs, and pigs, but no specific data analysis is given [6][7][11][14][17][19][24]. Team Member Introduction - Wang Na is the director of the agricultural product research department at Everbright Futures Research Institute. She has won the "Best Agricultural Product Analyst" title for many years and has rich experience in leading research teams [26]. - Hou Xueling is an analyst of soybeans at Everbright Futures, with more than ten years of futures experience. She has also won many awards in relevant analyst evaluations [26]. - Kong Hailan is a researcher of eggs and pigs at Everbright Futures Research Institute, with certain research achievements and media exposure [26].

油料日报 | 2025-11-25 豆一受需求缺口拉动延续涨势，花生关注基层上货节奏 大豆观点 市场分析 期货方面，昨日收盘豆一2601合约4150.00元/吨，较前日变化+41.00元/吨，幅度+1.00%。现货方面，食用豆现货基 差A01-50，较前日变化-41，幅度32.14%。 市场资讯汇总：当前东北产区新季大豆价格表现坚挺，基层农户库存不多，挺价意愿较强，39%以上蛋白大豆毛粮 价格仍有趋涨走势，普通蛋白豆在高蛋白价格带动下也表现偏强。但从粮贸企业销售情况来看整体一般，随着还 粮陆续结束，价格或以持稳为主。黑龙江哈尔滨市场国标一等蛋白39%蛋白中粒塔粮装车报价2.05元/斤，较前一 日平；黑龙江双鸭山宝清市场国标一等蛋白39%蛋白中粒塔粮装车报价2.05元/斤，较前一日平；黑龙江佳木斯富 锦市场国标一等蛋白39%蛋白中粒塔粮装车报价2.03元/斤，较前一日平；黑龙江齐齐哈尔讷河市场国标一等蛋白 41%蛋白中粒塔粮装车报价2.17元/斤，较前一日平；黑龙江黑河嫩江市场国标一等蛋白41%蛋白中粒塔粮装车报价 2.16元/斤，较前一日平；黑龙江绥化海伦市场国标一等蛋白41%蛋白中粒塔粮装车报价2.17元/ ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - All commodities (cotton, sugar, and pulp) are rated as neutral [2][5][8] Core Viewpoints - The short - term range of Zhengzhou cotton prices is limited, with a mid - to long - term optimistic outlook after seasonal pressure. For sugar, short - term downward pressure exists but with limited downside and possible weak rebounds, while the long - term outlook is not optimistic. Pulp prices are expected to continue low - level oscillations due to insufficient fundamental improvement [2][5][8] Summary by Commodity Cotton Market News and Data - Yesterday, the closing price of cotton 2601 contract was 13,585 yuan/ton, up 125 yuan/ton (+0.93%) from the previous day. The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B cotton was 14,574 yuan/ton, up 3 yuan/ton, and the national average price was 14,793 yuan/ton, down 3 yuan/ton. From November 14 - 20, 2025/26 US cotton grading inspection was 270,200 tons, with 84.6% meeting ICE delivery requirements [1] Market Analysis - Internationally, the USDA report increased global cotton production in 2025/26, leading to a significant rise in ending stocks and a shift from destocking to restocking. US cotton sales pressure has increased. In the short term, the external market is under pressure. Domestically, after the National Day, the expected new - cotton output decreased, and the seed - cotton purchase price rose, driving up Zhengzhou cotton prices. However, there is strong hedging pressure, and the expected Xinjiang output has increased again. The downstream demand is weak, but the spinning profit has improved, limiting the downside space [1] Strategy - Adopt a neutral strategy. In the short term, view cotton prices with an oscillatory mindset. In the long term, be optimistic about cotton prices after seasonal pressure and consider the opportunity to go long on the far - month 05 contract at low prices [2] Sugar Market News and Data - Yesterday, the closing price of sugar 2601 contract was 5,370 yuan/ton, up 17 yuan/ton (+0.32%). The sugar spot price in Yunnan Kunming was 5,500 yuan/ton, down 60 yuan/ton. As of November 22 - 24, 3 new sugar mills in Guangxi started production, and 2 more are expected to start soon. By the end of November, about 31 mills are expected to be in operation. Currently, 18 mills have started production, 26 fewer than the same period last year, with a daily sugar - cane crushing capacity of 129,000 tons, 268,000 tons less than last year [3] Market Analysis - The Brazilian supply in the second half of October was strong, and the Indian sugar production in the 25/26 season is expected to rebound significantly, suppressing the sugar price. However, the short - term Indian exports are difficult to increase, and the Brazilian supply pressure is weakening, limiting the further decline of the raw - sugar price. In the Chinese market, the higher - than - expected imports and the start of sugar - mill production in Guangxi have increased the short - term supply pressure [4][5] Strategy - Adopt a neutral strategy. The short - term fundamental driving force is downward, but the low valuation and the sugar mills' willingness to support prices limit the downside. In the long term, the supply - demand situation is expected to be loose, and the price outlook is not optimistic [5] Pulp Market News and Data - Yesterday, the closing price of pulp 2601 contract was 5,220 yuan/ton, down 8 yuan/ton (-0.15%). The spot price of Chilean Silver Star softwood pulp in Shandong was 5,490 yuan/ton, unchanged, and the spot price of Russian softwood pulp was 4,965 yuan/ton, unchanged. The import wood - pulp spot market was mostly stable, with some prices showing an upward trend [5][6] Market Analysis - The European pulp port inventory in September decreased month - on - month but remained at a relatively high level. The domestic port de - stocking was slower than expected, and the supply remained loose. The weak demand in Europe and the US and the insufficient domestic demand are the main factors suppressing the pulp price. Although there is new paper - production capacity, the effective demand is insufficient, and the paper mills' raw - material procurement is cautious [7] Strategy - Adopt a neutral strategy. Due to the insufficient improvement in the pulp fundamentals, the price is expected to continue low - level oscillations [8]