涨跌 (%) 收盘 指数 1月 名称 (点) 1日 5日 -0.45 8.38 -0.26 上证指数 3828 | 风格指数 (%) | FEE | 近１个月 近６个月 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 大盘指数 | -0.57 | 11.37 | 16 | | 中盘指数 | -2.13 | 13.14 | 17.92 | | 小盘指数 | -2.48 | 9.84 | 16.95 | | 涨幅居前 行业(%) | 바람들 | 近１个月 近６个月 | | | 衣商行II | 2.54 | 0.41 | 14.95 | | 国有大型银行II | 2.11 | 2.82 | 13.82 | | 股份制银行II | 1.95 | -2.3 | 7.84 | | 白色家电 | 1.78 | 2.14 | 2.45 | | 饰品 | 1.66 | 6.96 | 34.32 | | 跌幅居前 行业(%) | MEE | 近１个月 近６个月 | | | 通信设备 | -6.71 | 46.84 | 94.07 | | 其他电源设备Ⅱ | -5.71 | 14.99 | 22.82 | | 元件 ...

证券日报网讯 9月2日晚间，亚盛集团发布公告称，公司计划于2025年9月10日（星期三）10：00-11： 00举行2025年半年度业绩说明会。 （文章来源：证券日报） ...

Group 1 - Indian Prime Minister Modi's recent diplomatic approach at the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) summit has garnered global attention, showcasing a rare "warm diplomacy" stance [1] - Modi's 50-minute discussion with Russian President Putin and his public support for SCO expansion and de-dollarization indicate India's strategic maneuvering between the US and China [1] - The announcement of 400 Indian soldiers participating in the US-India joint military exercise "War Games 2025" reflects India's rapid shift in foreign policy after engaging with China and Russia [1] Group 2 - The economic relationship between India and the US is crucial, with the US being India's largest export market, accounting for approximately 18% of India's total exports [2] - India's trade dynamics are under pressure due to increased tariffs imposed by the US, leading to significant economic stress for India [2] - Trump's social media comments suggesting India has compromised on tariff issues have added psychological pressure on India, revealing its dilemma between economic interests and strategic autonomy [2] Group 3 - Trump's pressure tactics aim to force India into concessions, particularly in agriculture and dairy markets, which are vital for millions of Indian farmers [4] - The US's strong stance on India's procurement of Russian oil complicates India's position in international negotiations, as the US seeks to leverage India against China [4] - India is likely to accelerate its "diversification strategy" to reduce dependence on a single market, which poses risks to national security and economic stability [4] Group 4 - India's diplomatic positioning will become increasingly significant in the coming months and years, as it navigates pressures from both domestic and external sources [6] - The ability of the Modi government to maintain economic interests and national security while avoiding control by major powers will be a critical test [6] - The evolving international landscape necessitates that India continuously adjusts its strategies to find a sustainable path in a multipolar world [6]

在内资低利率环境下，港股中的高股息类标的成为南下资金的重要选择之一。今年以来，南向资金持续 加仓港股，数据显示，截至9月1日，年内南向资金共流入约9909亿港币。 作为中国最大的综合性企业集团之一，中信股份(00267)凭借低估值、高分红的鲜明特征，持续吸引南 向资金。数据显示，截至9月1日，港股通持仓已达12.95亿股，占自由流通股本比例跃升至26.31%，在 港股总股本中的占比亦达4.46%。与年初的7.60亿股(对应自由流通股本15.37%、港股总股本2.6%)相 比，持仓规模及占比均实现大幅提升，资金流入趋势显著。 在港股市场中，中信股份的分红政策堪称标杆。上市十年，公司累计分红超1400亿人民币(单位，下 同)，滚动股息率5.44%，远超市场均值。 公司明确落实《股东回报规划》，中信股份2024年度实际分红率提升至27.5%，超过规划预期，并计划 在2026年提升至30%以上。上半年中信股份计划派发中期股息每股0.20元，同比增长5.3%，分红总额达 58.18亿元，持续以真金白银回馈投资者，显示现金流充沛和回报决心。 尽管股价上涨，估值仍处历史低位。数据显示，截至9月1日收盘，中信股份市净率仅0. ...

Group 1 - The "Micro Observation" column has published 100 issues since its launch, effectively addressing most public concerns and showcasing advanced examples of high-quality local development [1] - The column focuses on urgent public issues, reflecting obstacles to high-quality development and highlighting innovative models to improve living standards [1] Group 2 - The column has facilitated the resolution of over ten public issues by promoting improvements in departmental workflows and enhancing grassroots governance capabilities [2] - A significant infrastructure project, an 11-kilometer road that had been under construction for over ten years, has seen renewed progress after being highlighted in the column, with completion expected by December 2025 [2] - The implementation of paid parking at the Zhongshan Memorial Library has improved access for readers, eliminating previous long wait times for parking [2] Group 3 - The column also highlights successful community projects, such as the integration of agriculture, culture, and tourism in a village, which generated nearly 20% growth in collective economic income within six months [3] - The renovation of historical districts has been emphasized, showcasing the importance of both aesthetic and functional improvements in urban development [3] - Over 1,300 "Warm Bee" service locations have been established to address the needs of outdoor workers, receiving widespread acclaim for their contributions to community welfare [3] Group 4 - The column serves as a vital platform for citizens to perceive the effectiveness of policies and the warmth of urban life through various community initiatives [4]

Core Insights - The analysis by the Pew Research Center indicates that over 1.2 million immigrants have left the U.S. labor market from January to July this year, influenced by the immigration policies of the Trump administration [1][3] - Immigrants constitute approximately 20% of the U.S. labor force, with significant contributions in agriculture (45%), construction (30%), and services (24%) [3][4] Labor Market Impact - The cessation of large-scale immigration has had a "huge impact" on job creation capabilities in the U.S., with immigrants typically contributing to at least 50% of employment growth [4] - Enforcement actions against immigrants have led to disruptions in various sectors, particularly agriculture and construction, causing delays in crop harvesting and job losses [4][7] Sector-Specific Effects - The construction industry has seen job losses in nearly half of U.S. metropolitan areas, with the Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario area losing 7,200 jobs and the Los Angeles-Long Beach-Glendale area losing 6,200 jobs [7] - The healthcare sector is also likely to be affected, as approximately 43% of home care workers are immigrants, raising concerns about staffing shortages in hospitals and nursing homes [7]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Iron ore: Volatile [2] - Coking coal and coke: Volatile and weak [2] - Rebar: Weak [2] - Glass: Volatile and weak [2] - CSI 300: Volatile [3] - SSE 50: Upward [3] - CSI 500: Volatile [3] - CSI 1000: Upward [3] - 2-year Treasury bond: Volatile [3] - 5-year Treasury bond: Volatile [3] - 10-year Treasury bond: Decline [3] - Gold: Volatile and strong [3] - Silver: Volatile and strong [3] - Pulp: Consolidation [6] - Logs: Range-bound [6] - Soybean oil: Volatile [6] - Palm oil: Volatile [6] - Rapeseed oil: Volatile [6] - Soybean meal: Rebound [6] - Rapeseed meal: Rebound [6] - Soybean No. 2: Rebound [6] - Soybean No. 1: Rebound [6] - Live pigs: Volatile and strong [7] - Rubber: Volatile [10] - PX: Wait-and-see [10] - PTA: Volatile [10] - MEG: Wait-and-see [10] - PR: Wait-and-see [10] - PF: Wait-and-see [10] Core Views - The iron ore market is expected to follow the finished products in high-level volatile adjustments due to limited fundamental contradictions in the short term [2]. - The coking coal and coke market is likely to be volatile and weak as the fundamentals continue to deteriorate [2]. - The rebar market remains in a weak fundamental pattern, with supply remaining relatively high and demand difficult to show counter-seasonal performance [2]. - The glass market has seen a significant cooling of market sentiment, and the short-term supply-demand pattern has not improved significantly [2]. - The stock index market has rebounded, and it is recommended to increase risk appetite and increase long positions in stock indices [3]. - The Treasury bond market has shown a weakening trend, and long positions in Treasury bonds should be held lightly [3]. - The gold market is expected to be volatile and strong, with the Fed's interest rate policy and tariff policy being potential short-term disturbance factors [3]. - The pulp market is in a situation of weak supply and demand, and prices are expected to consolidate [6]. - The log market is expected to be range-bound, with limited supply pressure and uncertain peak season demand [6]. - The oil and fat market is likely to be volatile in the short term, and attention should be paid to the weather in the US soybean production area and the production and sales of Malaysian palm oil [6]. - The meal market is expected to rebound with the support of the external market, and attention should be paid to the US soybean weather and soybean arrivals [6]. - The live pig market is expected to see a slight increase in prices next week, with support from school start-up demand and cost factors [7]. - The rubber market is expected to remain strong in the short term, supported by supply shortages and inventory declines [10]. - The PX, PTA, MEG, PR, and PF markets are in a state of wait-and-see or volatile, with prices mainly following cost fluctuations [10]. Summary by Related Catalogs Black Series - **Iron Ore**: The iron ore market is affected by the steel industry's stable growth policy, with raw material sentiment boosted and prices relatively strong. The fundamental contradictions are not prominent, and it is expected to follow the finished products in high-level volatile adjustments [2]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The fundamentals of coking coal and coke are deteriorating, with increasing supply and decreasing demand. The short-term black market sentiment has cooled significantly, and the market is expected to be volatile and weak [2]. - **Rebar**: The rebar market is in a weak fundamental pattern, with supply remaining high and demand difficult to improve. The traditional peak season has arrived, but the spot demand is still weak, and the short-term contract is expected to continue to be weak [2]. Non-ferrous and Financial Series - **Stock Indices**: The stock index market has rebounded, and it is recommended to increase risk appetite and increase long positions in stock indices. The market is affected by factors such as the SCO summit and the implementation of the consumer loan subsidy policy [3]. - **Treasury Bonds**: The Treasury bond market has shown a weakening trend, with market interest rate fluctuations. Long positions in Treasury bonds should be held lightly [3]. - **Precious Metals**: The gold and silver markets are expected to be volatile and strong, with the Fed's interest rate policy and tariff policy being potential short-term disturbance factors. The market is also affected by factors such as the weakening of the US labor market and the slowdown of inflation [3]. Forestry and Agricultural Products Series - **Pulp**: The pulp market is in a situation of weak supply and demand, with cost support weakening and demand improvement uncertain. Prices are expected to consolidate [6]. - **Logs**: The log market is expected to be range-bound, with limited supply pressure and uncertain peak season demand. The spot market price is relatively stable, and the cost support remains [6]. - **Oil and Fats**: The oil and fat market is likely to be volatile in the short term, with overall raw material supply being relatively loose and demand being affected by policies and consumption upgrades. Attention should be paid to the weather in the US soybean production area and the production and sales of Malaysian palm oil [6]. - **Meals**: The meal market is expected to rebound with the support of the external market, but the increase is limited by the expected increase in production. Attention should be paid to the US soybean weather and soybean arrivals [6]. - **Live Pigs**: The live pig market is expected to see a slight increase in prices next week, with support from school start-up demand and cost factors. The market is also affected by factors such as the supply and demand structure and inventory levels [7]. Chemical and Soft Commodities Series - **Rubber**: The rubber market is expected to remain strong in the short term, supported by supply shortages and inventory declines. The market is also affected by factors such as the impact of the approaching military parade on downstream operations and the overall strength of the commodity market [10]. - **PX, PTA, MEG, PR, and PF**: The PX, PTA, MEG, PR, and PF markets are in a state of wait-and-see or volatile, with prices mainly following cost fluctuations. The markets are affected by factors such as geopolitical situations, supply and demand relationships, and cost changes [10].

Core Insights - The night economy is becoming a significant driver of high-quality economic development in urban and rural areas, with 60% of domestic residents' consumption occurring at night and over 50% of daily consumption in large shopping malls happening between 6 PM and 10 PM [1][4] - As of late July 2025, there are over 1.65 million night economy-related enterprises in China, with a notable increase in "night tourism" search and comment volumes by approximately 100% [1] Group 1: Night Economy Trends - The night economy is diversifying beyond traditional dining and shopping, incorporating various activities such as night tours, exhibitions, and performances [2][4] - In Guangdong, night dining orders have seen a year-on-year increase of over 21% since July [4] - Yunnan's night economy is also thriving, with 1.07 billion visitors and revenue of 18.1 billion yuan in the first half of the year, reflecting a growth of 10.2% and 8.3% respectively [6] Group 2: Cultural Integration - Cultural creativity is enhancing the night economy, with local cultural elements being integrated into night-time activities, creating immersive experiences for consumers [7] - Events like the "East Lake Cultural Market" in Hunan attracted nearly 200,000 participants and generated over 1.8 million yuan in direct consumption, showcasing the blend of cultural heritage and modern consumerism [9] Group 3: Innovative Night Activities - Innovative night activities, such as night fruit picking and cultural festivals, are being developed to attract visitors and stimulate consumption [2][5] - The integration of agriculture, ecology, and cultural tourism is creating new consumption models, as seen in the activities at the Xiangfeng Modern Agricultural Industrial Park [2]

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - Overseas, the US dollar index is under pressure due to rising expectations of Fed rate cuts and concerns about its independence, while global risk appetite has increased. Domestically, China's official manufacturing PMI in August improved slightly to 49.4 but remained below the boom - bust line for the fifth consecutive month. With policies to expand service consumption and the extension of the tariff truce between China and the US, short - term domestic risk appetite has risen. The market's trading logic focuses on domestic incremental stimulus policies and easing expectations, with short - term macro upward drivers strengthening marginally [2]. - Different sectors have different short - term trends. For example, stock indices are expected to be slightly stronger in the short term, treasury bonds to fluctuate at high levels, and different commodity sectors have their own characteristics such as black metals being weak, non - ferrous metals being slightly stronger, energy and chemicals fluctuating, and precious metals being strong at high levels [2]. Summary by Related Catalogs Macro Finance - **Macro**: Overseas, the weakening US dollar index and rising global risk appetite are due to expectations of Fed rate cuts and concerns about its independence. Domestically, the manufacturing PMI improved slightly but was still below the boom - bust line. Policies to expand service consumption are to be introduced, and the extension of the tariff truce and US easing expectations reduce short - term external risks and increase domestic easing expectations. Short - term macro upward drivers are strengthening marginally [2]. - **Stock Indices**: Driven by sectors like precious metals, metals, and biomedicine, the domestic stock market rose slightly. With the improvement in manufacturing PMI and policy support, short - term domestic risk appetite has increased. The market focuses on domestic policies and easing expectations, and short - term operation is to be cautiously bullish [2][3]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Expected to fluctuate at high levels in the short term, with a cautious wait - and - see approach [2]. Black Metals - **Steel**: On Monday, steel futures and spot prices continued to be weak, and market trading volume was low. Although the PMI in August increased by 0.1 percentage points, it was still below the boom - bust line. Real - world demand is weakening, steel inventories are increasing, and the probability of steel mills resuming production next week is high. The steel market is likely to remain weak in the short term [4][5]. - **Iron Ore**: On Monday, the decline in iron ore futures and spot prices widened. Iron water production is expected to further decline this week, and steel mills' procurement is cautious. The global iron ore shipment volume and arrival volume have increased this week, and the port inventory has slightly decreased. Iron ore prices are expected to fluctuate within a range in the short term [5]. - **Silicon Manganese/Silicon Iron**: On Monday, the spot prices of silicon iron and silicon manganese declined. The production of silicon manganese in Inner Mongolia has little change, and there are new production capacity plans in October. The production of silicon iron has cost support, and the reduction in production is expected to be limited. Ferroalloy prices are expected to fluctuate within a range in the short term [6]. - **Soda Ash**: On Monday, the main soda ash contract fluctuated within a range. Supply is under pressure, demand is weak, and profits are declining. Soda ash has a pattern of high supply, high inventory, and weak demand, and is expected to fluctuate within a range in the short term [7]. - **Glass**: On Monday, the main glass contract fluctuated within a range. Supply has slightly increased, demand is difficult to improve significantly, and profits have slightly increased. Glass is expected to fluctuate within a range in the short term [8]. Non - Ferrous Metals and New Energy - **Copper**: The eurozone's manufacturing PMI reached a new high. However, domestic copper demand is expected to weaken marginally, and although the Fed's rate cut in September may briefly boost copper prices, the strong copper price is hard to sustain [9]. - **Aluminum**: On Monday, the aluminum closing price fell and then rebounded slightly. Aluminum inventory has increased, and LME aluminum inventory is at a neutral level. In the medium term, the upside space for aluminum prices is limited, and in the short term, it will maintain a fluctuating trend [9]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: The supply of scrap aluminum is tight, and the demand is in the off - season. Considering cost support, the price is expected to fluctuate slightly stronger in the short term, but the upside space is limited [9]. - **Tin**: The combined operating rate of Yunnan and Jiangxi has decreased slightly. The supply of tin ore is expected to be more abundant. Terminal demand is weak, and inventory has decreased. Tin prices are expected to fluctuate in the short term, with limited upside space [10][11]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: On Monday, the main lithium carbonate contract fell. Lithium carbonate is slowly destocking, and it is expected to fluctuate widely, with a short - term bearish and long - term bullish outlook [11]. - **Industrial Silicon**: On Monday, the main industrial silicon contract rose. Industrial silicon is expected to fluctuate within a range [11]. - **Polysilicon**: On Monday, the main polysilicon contract rose significantly. Rumors of industry restructuring have raised market expectations, but production in August was close to 130,000 tons, and the number of warehouse receipts has increased. It is expected to fluctuate at a high level in the short term, facing a game between strong expectations and weak reality [12]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: The market is focused on geopolitical risks. India has refuted the US pressure to stop importing oil from Russia, and Ukraine has attacked more Russian refineries. OPEC+ will hold a meeting to discuss supply policies, and the market expects the organization to suspend production increases. The spot price has a limited rebound, and attention should be paid to Indian tariffs and OPEC+ production decisions [13]. - **Asphalt**: The slight increase in oil prices has driven up asphalt costs. Asphalt itself is still weak, with a slightly declining basis. Inventory de - stocking is limited, and it is expected to continue to fluctuate in the near term, with attention to changes in oil costs [14]. - **PX**: The rebound in crude oil prices has driven up the PX market, but due to low PTA开工, the PX price is still weak. PX is in a tight supply situation, and the PXN spread has slightly decreased. It is expected to fluctuate in the near term, waiting for changes in PTA plants [14]. - **PTA**: The PTA开工 has been at a low level due to plant problems, but the high basis has weakened, and processing fees have recovered. Demand recovery is slow, and it is expected to continue to fluctuate narrowly in the short term, with attention to oil prices and downstream demand [14]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: Due to overseas plant problems, imports are expected to be low, and port inventory has decreased significantly. The load of synthetic gas plants is high, and there is limited room for further increase. It is recommended to go long at low prices in the short term, with attention to downstream开工 recovery and oil costs [15]. - **Short - Fiber**: The short - fiber price has slightly decreased due to sector resonance. Terminal orders have increased seasonally, and short - fiber开工 has rebounded slightly. Inventory has accumulated slightly, and it is expected to follow the polyester sector and can be shorted at high levels in the medium term [15]. - **Methanol**: The restart of inland plants and concentrated arrivals have increased supply pressure. The opening of the reflux window and the planned restart of MTO plants provide some support, but the oversupply pattern remains, and prices are expected to fluctuate weakly [15]. - **PP**: The device开工 has increased, and new production capacity has been put into operation. Demand is weak, but policy support prevents a deep decline. The 01 contract is expected to fluctuate weakly [16]. - **LLDPE**: Current maintenance has relieved supply pressure, and downstream demand is slowly increasing, with inventory decreasing. As maintenance ends, supply pressure will increase. It is expected to fluctuate, with attention to demand growth [16]. Agricultural Products - **US Soybeans**: The CBOT market was closed overnight. Since the USDA tightened the supply - demand expectations for new - crop US soybeans in August, and export sales data have improved, the net long position of CBOT soybean funds has increased. However, without substantial Chinese purchases, the export outlook is not overly optimistic, and there is no upward driver for the low - valued market [17]. - **Soybean and Rapeseed Meal**: The CBOT soybean price is likely to be under pressure in the short term. In China, with more imported soybeans being released, the risk preference for protein meal may decrease. There is still a large pressure for short - term inventory accumulation, and the basis is difficult to repair in the short term [17]. - **Oils and Fats**: Southeast Asian palm oil is in a peak production season, and exports are limited. It is expected that Indonesia will repair its low inventory, while Malaysia will face inventory accumulation pressure. The overall boost to oils and fats is limited. Domestic palm oil may be under pressure, while soybean and rapeseed oils have sufficient supply and demand and may see a repair of the low - valued market [17][18]. - **Corn**: In September, attention should be paid to the new - crop corn listing. There is no concentrated arrival pressure this year, and port and downstream inventories are low. The expected opening price of new - crop corn in the main production areas may be slightly higher than last year, and the main C2511 contract is expected to operate in the range of 2150 - 2250 yuan/ton [18]. - **Pigs**: In September, the supply and demand of pigs will both increase. The pressure of large - weight pig sales has been released, and there is a seasonal replenishment for secondary fattening. With the traditional holiday stocking period, the pig price should not be overly pessimistic [19].

日度报告——综合晨报 宏观策略（黄金） 美国财长贝森特：联储主席人选有望成为理 事 [T报ab告le_日R期an：k] 2025-09-02 美国财长贝森特：美联储是且应当保持独立 昨日美国劳动节休市市场交易较为平淡，但亚洲盘贵金属强势 上涨，黄金接近前高，白银则突破 40 美金创 2011 年以来新高， 市场对美联储独立性的担忧引发资金做多贵金属。 宏观策略（外汇期货(美元指数)） 贝森特：几位美联储主席人选也有望当理事 综 贝森特表态联储主席候选人也可以当理事，美国政府对于美联 储影响强化，美元维持弱势。 合 宏观策略（股指期货） 报 A 股情绪依旧强劲，成交额仍在高位，短期内资金未有退坡，依 旧以多头为主。 农产品（红枣） 新疆主产地红枣长势正常 新疆主产地红枣进入上糖期，平均亩产预估 700 公斤。 有色金属（多晶硅） 习近平在"上海合作组织+"会议上的讲话 单边多单建议考虑适时止盈，不建议追多，套利可在-2000 元/ 吨左右重新关注 11-12 反套机会。 能源化工（液化石油气） 9 月 CP 官价持平出台 9 月 CP 官价持稳出台。 晨 上合组织发布加强数字经济发展的声明 | 安紫薇 | 资深 ...