Group 1: Market Performance Review - The Hong Kong stock market experienced a significant pullback this week due to escalating geopolitical conflicts and the Hong Kong dollar approaching the weak side guarantee, with the Hang Seng Index, Hang Seng Composite Index, and Hang Seng Tech Index declining by -1.70%, -1.52%, and -2.03% respectively [3][13] - Most primary industry sectors saw declines, with the healthcare sector experiencing a substantial drop of nearly 8%, the largest among all sectors, while only the information technology sector saw a slight increase of 0.2% [3][13] - As of the end of this week, the 5-year PE (TTM) valuation percentile of the Hang Seng Composite Index rose to 72%, exceeding the 5-year average [3] Group 2: Macroeconomic Environment - The macroeconomic environment indicates that economic activity data for May continued to weaken, with consumption performance exceeding expectations mainly due to shopping festival timing and subsidies, raising questions about sustainability [3][48] - The Federal Reserve's June meeting maintained the benchmark interest rate, aligning with expectations, but conveyed a hawkish tone emphasizing the impact of tariffs on U.S. inflation [3][46] Group 3: Sector Outlook - The report suggests a favorable outlook for sectors that are relatively prosperous and benefit from policy support, including automotive, new consumption, innovative pharmaceuticals, and technology [3][48] - It also highlights the importance of low-valuation state-owned enterprises that are stable in performance and stock price, as well as local Hong Kong banks, telecommunications, and utility dividend stocks that are relatively independent and benefit from the interest rate cut cycle [3][48] Group 4: Buyback Statistics - The buyback market showed improvement this week, with 55 companies participating, up from 53 the previous week, and total buyback amounts reaching 6.61 billion HKD, a significant increase from 3.96 billion HKD last week [3][27] - Tencent Holdings (0700.HK) led the buybacks with 2.5 billion HKD, followed by Chow Tai Fook (1929.HK) with 1.57 billion HKD, and AIA Group (1299.HK) with 1.15 billion HKD [3][27] Group 5: Southbound Capital Flow - The top net buying companies through the Southbound Stock Connect included China Construction Bank (0939.HK) with a net buy of 3.48 billion HKD, Meituan-W (3690.HK) with 2.49 billion HKD, and China Merchants Bank (3968.HK) with 2.23 billion HKD [3][34] - Conversely, the top net selling companies included Tencent Holdings (0700.HK) with a net sell of 4.81 billion HKD and Alibaba-W (9988.HK) with 4.38 billion HKD [3][35]

Group 1 - The overall shareholding ratio of southbound funds in Hong Kong Stock Connect stocks is 17.52%, with 208 stocks having a shareholding ratio exceeding 20% [1] - As of June 20, southbound funds held a total of 4,397.44 million shares, accounting for 13.34% of the total market value of the stocks [1] - The highest shareholding ratio by southbound funds is in China Telecom, with 74.79% of its issued shares held, followed by Shandong Molong and Green Power Environmental, with 68.53% and 68.22% respectively [1] Group 2 - Southbound funds with a shareholding ratio exceeding 20% are mainly concentrated in the healthcare, industrial, and financial sectors, with 43, 31, and 29 stocks respectively [2] - The top stocks with high southbound fund holdings include China Telecom, Shandong Molong, and Green Power Environmental, with respective shareholding ratios of 74.79%, 68.53%, and 68.22% [2] - A significant portion of the stocks with high southbound fund holdings are AH concept stocks, with 118 out of 208 stocks (56.73%) having a shareholding ratio over 20% [1][2]

Market Overview - The Hong Kong stock market indices showed mixed performance, with the Hang Seng Index rising by 0.42%, the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index increasing by 0.30%, while the Hang Seng Technology Index fell by 0.89% during the week of June 9-13, 2025 [6][11] - The Hang Seng Index's current Price-to-Earnings (PE) ratio is 10.40, which is around the 55th percentile since January 1, 2007, and the Price-to-Book (PB) ratio is 1.12, at the 40th percentile during the same period [13][16] Economic Indicators - In May 2025, China's Consumer Price Index (CPI) decreased by 0.2% month-on-month and by 0.1% year-on-year, while the Producer Price Index (PPI) fell by 0.4% month-on-month and by 3.3% year-on-year, indicating a worsening in producer prices [7][10] - The core CPI, excluding food and energy, increased by 0.6% year-on-year, reflecting a slight improvement in underlying inflation trends [7][10] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on high-end manufacturing sectors such as AI computing power, innovative pharmaceuticals, and semiconductor industries, as these areas are expected to benefit from improved supply-demand dynamics and government measures to boost consumption [6][10]

Group 1 - The report highlights that the escalation of the conflict in the Middle East is likely to create short-term volatility in the US stock market, primarily due to geopolitical uncertainties [1] - It is noted that while "soft" economic data has shown improvement, there is a lack of supporting "hard" data in the short term [1] - The report indicates that historical analysis shows wars typically do not prevent long-term gains in the US stock market, as the key factors are the nature of the conflict and the US economy's response [1] Group 2 - The report discusses the recent US CPI data, which showed a month-on-month increase of 0.1%, below the expected 0.2%, and a year-on-year increase of 2.4%, meeting expectations [2] - It mentions that the market is increasingly betting on two interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve this year due to the CPI data [2] - The report expresses a cautious outlook on the US long-term treasury yields, suggesting that the risks of rising yields outweigh the risks of falling yields in the short term [3] Group 3 - The report notes that the Hong Kong stock market is experiencing increased rotation, with a need for new capital and sustained policy stimulus for continued rebounds [4] - It highlights that global funds are primarily flowing into developed markets, with US stocks still in a rebound trend [4] - The report indicates that the gold ETFs have seen significant inflows, particularly into SPDR Gold Trust, which received $721 million [6][19]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the increasing discourse on "de-dollarization" in the context of U.S. tariff policies, highlighting the reliance of U.S. companies on overseas business and the potential impact on their performance due to changing global economic dynamics [2][4]. Group 1: Overseas Revenue Proportion - In the S&P 500 index, the proportion of non-U.S. revenue is approximately 30%, which is higher for large enterprises compared to small enterprises, where it is about 20% [6][18]. - The companies disclosing non-U.S. revenue in the S&P 500 represent about 83% of the total market capitalization, indicating a high level of representativeness [6][18]. Group 2: Industry Exposure to Overseas Revenue - The technology sector has the highest exposure to overseas revenue, with over 50% of its revenue coming from non-U.S. sources, followed by materials, healthcare, and communications, all exceeding 30% [7][21]. - Key industries like technology and communications account for nearly half of the total market capitalization of the S&P 500, indicating their significant reliance on overseas business [7][21]. Group 3: Major Companies' Overseas Business - More than half of the major companies in the S&P 500 have overseas business proportions exceeding their respective industry averages [9][26]. - For instance, Apple has 57% of its revenue from overseas, while Nvidia and Broadcom have 56% and 75%, respectively, which are above the technology sector's average of 51% [10][26]. Group 4: Importance of Asian and European Markets - Asian and European markets are nearly equally important, with Asian revenue accounting for 45% and European revenue for 40% of non-U.S. income [12][40]. - In the technology and energy sectors, Asian revenue is significantly higher than European revenue, while in consumer and financial sectors, European revenue dominates [12][40]. Group 5: Growth Rates of Domestic vs. Overseas Revenue - The growth of overseas revenue is generally outpacing domestic revenue growth, particularly in the communications sector, which shows a consistent trend of higher growth in non-U.S. revenue [13][44]. - The materials sector also exhibits higher growth in overseas revenue compared to total revenue for 2023-2024 [13][44]. Group 6: Profitability of Overseas Business - Certain industries, including essential and non-essential consumer goods, materials, and technology, show higher profit margins for overseas business compared to domestic operations [15][50]. - For example, the average operating profit margin for overseas business in the technology sector is 33%, which is higher than the overall average of 20% [15][50]. Group 7: Dependence on Chinese Market - The technology and communications sectors have a higher proportion of revenue from China, at 25.1%, compared to the overall average of 16.5% [16][57]. - However, revenue growth from China for these sectors has slowed in the past two years, potentially due to U.S. restrictions on technology [16][57].

Market Performance - The Hong Kong stock market has outperformed major global markets since 2025, with the Hang Seng Index and Hang Seng Tech Index both showing over 21% cumulative gains as of June 11, 2023 [1] - The net inflow of southbound funds has exceeded 670 billion HKD this year, setting a historical record for the same period, significantly boosting the market's performance [1] - Nearly 80% of the stocks in the Hang Seng Index have risen, with BYD leading the charge with over 60% growth [1] Sector Performance - The healthcare, materials, and information technology sectors have led the market, with gains of 50.54%, 36.41%, and 28.32% respectively [1] - The financial and discretionary consumer sectors have also recorded gains exceeding 22% [1] Investment Outlook - Analysts from CICC highlight structural advantages in the Chinese macro and market environment, such as stable dividend returns and growth lines in new consumption, AI technology, and innovative pharmaceuticals, making Hong Kong stocks more attractive compared to other markets [3] - Multiple brokerage firms maintain an optimistic outlook for the second half of the year, with expectations of a rebound in valuations and earnings in the fourth quarter [3] - Predictions suggest that southbound capital inflows could reach between 200 billion to 300 billion HKD in the second half, with total annual inflows potentially exceeding 1 trillion HKD [3] Investment Recommendations - CICC recommends focusing on stable returns (like deposits, government bonds, and dividend assets) and growth returns (such as technology, new consumption, and innovative pharmaceuticals) [4] - Huatai Securities identifies consumption and technology as key investment themes, favoring internet consumption, pharmaceuticals, personal care products, and hard tech sectors [4] - The primary market for Hong Kong stocks is showing signs of recovery, with opportunities in the brokerage sector due to increased demand for cross-border wealth management [4]

港股市场策略周报 2025.6.2-2025.6.8 | 分析师： | 沈凡超 | | --- | --- | | 中央编号： | BTT231 | | 联系电话： | 852-4623 5564 | | 邮箱： | hector@cnzsqh.hk | 港股市场策略周报 - 投资要点 l 港股市场表现回顾： l 港股市场宏观环境： l 港股市场展望： 2 n 本周中美关税摩擦继续缓和，结合政策加力的预期，港股市场本周迎来反弹，恒生综指/恒生指数/恒生科技分别 +2.20%/+2.16%/+2.25%。本周市场一级行业板块多数收涨，原材料业涨幅排在第一，周涨幅超5.5%；医疗 保健业继续保持强势，周涨幅超4.0%，排在第二。 n 截至本周末，恒生综指的5年PE（TTM）估值分位点升至72.3%，估值水平略超5年均值。 n 基本面：央行本周打破惯例，在6月初首次开展1万亿元买断式逆回购操作，释放明确宽松信号。 n 资金面：5月美国非农虽较上月走弱，但超市场预期，就业市场仍有韧性，市场对于美联储降息的预期继续承压。 n 基本面：经济复苏的内生动能仍然偏弱，外需承压下内需仍待政策面托举；政策面： 货币政策持续宽松加 ...

Group 1: Overview of Overseas Business in US Stocks - Approximately 30% of revenue for S&P 500 companies comes from overseas, while small companies (represented by Russell 2000) have about 20%[2] - Technology (51%), materials (38%), healthcare (35%), and communications (34%) have the highest exposure to overseas business[2] - S&P 500 companies generally have a higher overseas revenue share and profit margins compared to domestic operations, with Apple having 57% of its revenue from overseas and a profit margin of 42%[2] Group 2: Industry-Specific Insights - The technology sector has the largest overseas revenue share, exceeding 50%, while materials, healthcare, and communications also show significant overseas revenue contributions[4] - Major companies in the technology sector, such as Apple (57%) and Nvidia (56%), have overseas revenue shares above the industry average of 51%[5] - In the communications sector, companies like Alphabet (46%) and Meta (56%) also exceed the industry average of 34% for overseas revenue[5] Group 3: Growth and Profitability Trends - Non-US revenue growth for S&P 500 companies is generally higher than total revenue growth, indicating a reliance on overseas markets[10] - The communications sector shows the highest growth in overseas revenue, consistently outpacing total revenue growth since 2017[10] - Profit margins for overseas operations in certain sectors, such as consumer staples and technology, are higher than domestic margins, with an average overseas profit margin of 33% for technology[11] Group 4: China Market Dependency - Among S&P 500 companies disclosing Chinese revenue, technology and communications sectors have a higher dependency, with 25% of their revenue coming from China, above the overall average of 17%[4] - Recent trends show that revenue growth from China for these sectors has slowed compared to overall growth, potentially due to US restrictions on technology exports to China[4]

Group 1: Overview of Overseas Business in US Stocks - Approximately 30% of non-US revenue in the S&P 500 index, while small enterprises (represented by Russell 2000) have about 20%[3] - Technology (51%), Materials (38%), Healthcare (35%), and Communications (34%) have the highest overseas revenue exposure[4] - S&P 500 companies generally have higher overseas revenue ratios and profit margins compared to domestic operations, e.g., Apple’s overseas revenue is 57% with a profit margin of 42%[22] Group 2: Industry-Specific Insights - Technology and Communications sectors account for nearly half of the S&P 500 market capitalization, indicating high reliance on overseas business[4] - Among the top five companies in the S&P 500, over half have overseas business ratios exceeding their industry averages[5] - Asian and European markets contribute significantly to overseas revenue, with Asia at 45% and Europe at 40%[6] Group 3: Growth and Profitability - Non-US revenue growth is generally higher than total revenue growth for S&P 500 companies, indicating a greater reliance on overseas markets[8] - Certain industries, such as Consumer Staples and Technology, show higher profit margins for overseas operations compared to domestic ones, e.g., Consumer Staples at 37%[9] - Companies like Apple and Amazon have overseas profit margins that surpass their domestic margins, highlighting the profitability of international operations[60] Group 4: China Market Dependency - For S&P 500 companies disclosing Chinese business, Technology and Communications sectors have a higher revenue share from China (25.1%) compared to the overall average (16.5%)[64] - Recent trends show that revenue growth from China for these sectors has lagged behind overall growth, possibly due to US restrictions on technology[64]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that the U.S. job market shows short-term resilience, with May non-farm payrolls increasing by 139,000, surpassing expectations of 126,000 [1][6][7] - The healthcare sector (+78,000) and leisure and hospitality (+48,000) accounted for 90% of the total job gains, indicating that service consumption is a key support for the U.S. job market [1][7] - The manufacturing, retail trade, and government employment sectors were drag factors in May, with federal government employment turning negative, possibly reflecting the impact of layoffs [1][8] Group 2 - The unemployment rate remained stable at 4.2%, with a slight increase in the unemployment rate (U3) from 4.19% to 4.24% [2][9] - Average hourly earnings increased by 3.9% year-on-year, exceeding the expected 3.7%, indicating wage stickiness that may support consumer spending [2][10] - The Index of Aggregate Payrolls Private showed a year-on-year increase of 5% in May, although it was lower than the previous value of 5.3% [2][10] Group 3 - The employment diffusion index decreased from 56 to 54.2, indicating a slowdown in job growth breadth, with the manufacturing employment diffusion index dropping to 41.7, the lowest since August 2024 [3][11] - The proportion of full-time employment fell to 49.3%, and the total employment-to-population ratio dropped to 59.7%, the lowest since the pandemic [3][11] - The number of individuals transitioning from employment to non-labor force status rose to 5.41 million, the highest monthly increase, potentially due to federal administrative leave and tightened immigration policies [3][12] Group 4 - The labor force participation rate decreased to 62.4%, below the expected 62.6% [3][12] - The labor force participation rate for foreign-born individuals fell from 66.5% to 65.9%, likely related to the U.S. government's termination of Temporary Protection Status for Venezuelan nationals [4][14] - The Supreme Court's decision to end TPS could impact approximately 348,000 individuals, potentially reducing the labor supply by about 20,000 jobs per month over the next year [4][15] Group 5 - Overall, the May employment data supports the Federal Reserve's cautious stance on interest rate cuts, with a low probability of rate cuts in June and July [5][17] - The market's limited expectations for rate cuts were reflected in the rise of major U.S. stock indices following the employment data release [5][17] - The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield rebounded by 11 basis points to 4.50% on the same day [5][17]