报告导读： 中观景气延续分化，科技硬件继续涨价，新兴科技带动金属需求，叠加宽松预 期升温，有色价格上涨；内需方面，服务消费景气边际改善，地产耐用品仍承压。 以上内容节选自国泰海通证券已发布的证券研究报告。 报告名称： 科技有色景气延续，服务消费需求提升；报告日期：2025.12.23 报告作者： 方奕（分析师），登记编号：S0880520120005 陶前陈（研究助理），登记编号：S0880125070014 张逸飞（分析师），登记编号：S0880524080008 重要提醒 科技有色景气延续，服务消费需求提升。 上周（ 12.15-12.21 ）中观景气表现分化，值得关注： 1 ）全球 AI 基建持续带动电子产业链需求提升，高端存储 器价格显著上涨，存储赛道景气延续偏强；流动性宽松预期升温，叠加新兴科技对金属材料需求提升，国际金属价格显著上涨。 2 ）服务消费景气边际改 善，上海迪士尼拥挤度和海南旅游价格指数环比提升；奶粉价格增速继续提升，茅台批价延续小幅上涨。中央经济工作会议提出"深入实施提振消费专项行 动"，展望 2026 ，消费在供给端和需求端的政策空间存在超预期可能。 3 ）传统内需景气偏弱，地产建 ...

今日财经及行业动态多有看点。上海期货交易所自2025年12月24日起，对白银期货限制日内开仓最大数 量为10000手，此前广期所也限制碳酸锂开仓并提高保证金，但碳酸锂价格仍暴涨。特朗普叫停美国弗 吉尼亚海上风电项目，致欧美光伏和海风新能源板块大跌。长征十二号甲一级运载火箭二子级入轨，一 子级未回收，商业航天板块因炒作时间长资金撤退而大跌。传字节投资230亿美元人工智能，芯片和 PCB集体上涨。万科债展期未通过但延期通过。离岸RMB升至7.018，出口企业压力大。明日观察"神奇 指数"回调至1500左右，可参考其高低进行加减仓操作。各板块表现不一，如芯片自主自控、光伏"嘴 炮"不断等，市场对碳酸锂2026年走势预测分歧巨大。 和讯自选股写手 本文由 AI 算法生成，仅作参考，不涉投资建议，使用风险自担 股票名称 ["XX汽车","万科"] 板块名称 ["光伏和海风新能源","商业航天","芯片和PCB","福建板块","人工智能","地产","旅游酒 店","影视传媒","食品消费","煤炭","银行","证券","锂电","白酒","创新药品"] 期货限制、新能源板块、芯片上涨 看多看空（中性） 内容中对不同 ...

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market is experiencing a trend of moderate upward movement, supported by stable large-cap stocks and active small-cap growth stocks, indicating a shift from localized recovery to broader market improvement driven by policy, economic conditions, and capital flow [4][5]. Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index is primarily supported by stable large-cap stocks and the rotation of thematic stocks, while the Shenzhen Component Index shows the largest increase driven by active thematic stocks and the rise of small-cap growth stocks [4]. - The ChiNext Index has achieved a mild increase propelled by the growth of technology and computing-related stocks [4]. Market Sentiment - A total of 4,125 stocks have risen, indicating a strong overall market rally and improved investor sentiment, transitioning from "localized recovery" to "broad expansion" [5]. - The market is characterized by a strong upward trend, with a notable shift in focus towards high-growth sectors such as commercial aerospace, computing hardware, and PCB [5]. Capital Flow - The total trading volume in both markets has slightly decreased by 1.03%, reflecting a shift in capital from high-priced thematic stocks (like new energy and consumer electronics) to undervalued blue-chip stocks (such as banks and public utilities) and technology leaders (like AI computing and semiconductors) [6]. - There is a significant structural differentiation in capital flow, with retail investors actively pursuing small-cap stocks while institutional investors focus on high-growth sectors [7]. Investor Behavior - Retail investors are engaging in short-term speculation and chasing hot stocks, particularly increasing their positions in commercial aerospace, semiconductors, and computing hardware, complementing the strategies of institutional investors [7]. - The current average position of investors is reported at 68.27%, with 31.57% increasing their positions, 17.00% reducing their positions, and 51.43% remaining unchanged [13].

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints - The issuance of the first batch of L3-level highway autonomous driving vehicle special license plates in Beijing marks that China's autonomous vehicles have progressed from testing and demonstration to formal mass production, leading the way into the L3-level autonomous driving era, which is a milestone event in the automotive intelligentization process [1]. - The central government emphasizes the role of central enterprises in infrastructure construction, supply - chain autonomy, and technological self - reliance [1]. - The state has issued a notice to improve the kindergarten fee policy, including standardizing fee items and clarifying the principles for setting fee standards [2]. 3. Summary by Industry Directory Upstream - Energy: International crude oil prices have corrected, and liquefied natural gas prices have continued to decline [3]. - Chemical: The prices of PTA and urea have rebounded recently, while the price of polyethylene has declined [3]. Midstream - Chemical: The operating rate of chemical products has declined [4]. - Energy: The coal consumption of power plants has increased [4]. - Infrastructure: It is the off - season for asphalt construction [4]. Downstream - Real Estate: The sales of commercial housing in first, second, and third - tier cities have warmed up at the end of the year [4]. - Service: The number of domestic flight schedules has declined [4]. 4. Key Industry Price Indicators | Industry | Indicator | Price (7/1) | YoY | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Agriculture | Spot price of corn | 2365.7 yuan/ton | 0.85% | | | Spot price of eggs | 5.6 yuan/kg | - 4.62% | | | Spot price of palm oil | 8600.0 yuan/ton | - 0.02% | | | Spot price of cotton | 15210.0 yuan/ton | 2.30% | | | Average wholesale price of pork | 20.2 yuan/kg | - 0.44% | | | Spot price of copper | 80235.0 yuan/ton | 2.25% | | | Spot price of zinc | 22258.0 yuan/ton | 0.56% | | Non - ferrous Metals | Spot price of aluminum | 20786.7 yuan/ton | 1.14% | | | Spot price of nickel | 121700.0 yuan/ton | 1.64% | | | Spot price of aluminum | 17018.8 yuan/ton | - 0.07% | | | Spot price of rebar | 3069.0 yuan/ton | - 0.07% | | Ferrous Metals | Spot price of iron ore | 726.6 yuan/ton | 0.48% | | | Spot price of wire rod | 3252.5 yuan/ton | - 0.08% | | | Spot price of glass | 13.9 yuan/square meter | 0.22% | | Non - metals | Spot price of natural rubber | 13928.3 yuan/ton | 2.88% | | | China Plastic City Price Index | 826.7 | - 0.79% | | Energy | Spot price of WTI crude oil | 65.1 dollars/barrel | - 4.96% | | | Spot price of Brent crude oil | 66.7 dollars/barrel | - 6.63% | | | Spot price of liquefied natural gas | 4056.0 yuan/ton | 2.17% | | | Coal price | 726.0 yuan/ton | - 0.27% | | | Spot price of PTA | 5081.7 yuan/ton | - 0.63% | | | Spot price of polyethylene | 7503.3 yuan/ton | - 0.90% | | Chemical | Spot price of urea | 1829.0 yuan/ton | 1.39% | | | Spot price of soda ash | 1325.0 yuan/ton | - 1.85% | | | National cement price index | 137.2 | - 0.43% | | Real Estate | Building materials comprehensive index | 110.7 points | - 0.22% | | | National concrete price index | 96.7 points | - 1.58% | [38]

来源：智通财经 "港股最大的优势就是便宜。"近日，国海富兰克林基金权益投资总监赵晓东在接受智通财经采访时表 示，港股目前估值处于低位，且大部分大企业注重股东回报，在分红、回购方面更为积极，公司治理也 更为规范，"当下最显眼的机会在港股。" 从资金面看，赵晓东认为，南下资金持续流入成为港股重要支撑，尤其在境内低利率环境下，港股高分 红资产吸引力凸显。若美国降息周期开启或人民币进入升值通道，港股有望迎来进一步的估值修复动 力。 展望未来，赵晓东认为两大外部变量可能进一步提振港股：一是若美国开启降息周期，有望带动全球资 金回流港股市场；二是若人民币进入升值通道，则以人民币计价的资产吸引力将上升，尤其有利于现金 流稳定的高分红标的。 当前为地产行业逆向布局的窗口期 针对市场普遍谨慎的地产行业，赵晓东认为其虽仍面临基本面压力——房价下行、供给过剩及政策对二 手市场的冲击尚未完全消散，但行业已处于底部区域，反而提供了逆向布局的窗口。他预计，明年一季 度或将迎来稳定地产的政策，其目标在于稳住市场信心，而非助推房价上涨。 在具体配置方向上，赵晓东当前重点关注港股中的地产、银行及互联网板块。 他指出，地产行业目前已处于底部区域 ...

Group 1 - The A-share market is expected to experience a year-end rally, with large funds prepared while retail investors are not yet ready [1][5] - The current market conditions, including index position, trading volume, and news sentiment, are favorable for a market uptrend [3] - The technology sector is likely to continue its bullish trend, with significant interest in biotechnology and new energy, despite the presence of bubbles in tech stocks [3][5] Group 2 - The cross-year market rally is anticipated to occur, as historical trends show that bull markets do not typically decline before the Spring Festival [5] - Consumer sectors such as liquor, real estate, and securities are also expected to rise, alongside technology stocks [5] - Current investment strategy suggests maintaining a high position in technology and securities while being cautious in a volatile market [7]

Core Viewpoint - Three listed companies, Xiangyuan Cultural Tourism, Jiaojian Co., and Haichang Ocean Park, announced that their actual controller, Yu Faxiang, has been taken into criminal custody by the Shaoxing Public Security Bureau due to suspected criminal activities, with investigations ongoing [1][3]. Group 1: Company Announcements - As of the announcement date, none of the three companies have received requests for assistance in the investigation, and their control has not changed, with normal production and operations continuing [3]. - The incident is a result of ongoing debt risks within the Xiangyuan Group, with financial products guaranteed by Xiangyuan Holdings and Yu Faxiang facing overdue payments totaling up to 20 billion yuan [3][5]. - On December 7, Xiangyuan Cultural Tourism and Jiaojian Co. issued statements clarifying that the overdue financial products are unrelated to the listed companies and that Yu Faxiang is responsible for the guarantees [3]. Group 2: Regulatory and Legal Actions - Following the debt crisis, regulatory authorities intervened, forming a working group to assist Xiangyuan Holdings and ensure normal operations while investigating the company's financial situation [5]. - The core equity of the Xiangyuan Group has been largely frozen, with Jiaojian Co. disclosing that shares held by its controlling shareholder and Yu Faxiang have been judicially frozen [6][8]. - Specific data shows that Xiangyuan Holdings holds 274.29 million shares of Jiaojian Co., accounting for 44.32% of the total share capital, with all shares frozen [7]. Group 3: Company Background and Current Status - Yu Faxiang, born in 1971, is the chairman of Xiangyuan Holdings, which controls three listed companies and has a net worth of 14.5 billion yuan, ranking 465th on the Hurun Rich List [8]. - Xiangyuan Holdings, founded in 1992, focuses on cultural tourism investment and operates over 50 projects, while also being involved in infrastructure and real estate [8]. - The three listed companies have emphasized their operational independence from the controlling shareholder, asserting no non-operational fund occupation or illegal guarantees exist [8].

Group 1 - The A-share market experienced a significant increase, with the Shanghai Composite Index recovering the 3920-point mark, raising questions about the potential early start of the "spring market rally" [1] - Various research institutions have differing opinions on the spring market rally, with both Industrial Securities and Huatai Securities expressing optimism [1] - Industrial Securities highlighted potential signals for the rally, including the likelihood of interest rate cuts and improvements in key economic indicators such as PPI, PMI, M1, and social financing [1] Group 2 - Huatai Securities anticipates that the spring market rally is promising, although the current phase is characterized by uncertainties in fundamental expectations and policy data [1] - Shenwan Hongyuan maintains a cautious outlook, suggesting that the spring rally may initially manifest in non-mainstream sectors, focusing on industry and policy themes [1] - Huachuang Securities emphasizes that the timing of the spring rally's initiation is contingent on the strength and pace of real estate policies [2] Group 3 - The focus of Huachuang Securities is on how the low point before the spring rally is formed, with current market adjustments attributed to pressures in the real estate sector [2] - Guangfa Strategy's team views the probability of a spring rally in Hong Kong stocks during the Christmas to Spring Festival period as high, citing an 80% historical probability of the Hang Seng Index rising during this timeframe [2] - Relevant ETFs include the CSI 300 ETF, which is expected to face less resistance in the spring rally due to its balanced style and focus on large-cap, cyclical industries [2]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that a classic "cross-year-spring" market trend is brewing, with significant signals indicating its commencement [3] - Factors driving the appreciation of the RMB are increasing, and investors should adapt their asset allocation accordingly, focusing on industries that may benefit from this trend [1] - The market is expected to see a structural shift with a focus on cyclical sectors, particularly industrial metals, non-bank financials, and sectors related to domestic consumption [3][4] Group 2 - The investment strategy should consider three key clues: dividend value, layout of prosperous industries, and thematic hotspots [4] - The anticipated spring market in 2026 is expected to be driven by a combination of fundamental cyclical improvements and new technological trends [2] - The current market is characterized by a narrow range of fluctuations, influenced by external factors such as U.S. monetary policy and investor sentiment [4][6] Group 3 - The focus on AI and advanced manufacturing is expected to dominate the market, with a potential shift towards value and cyclical styles in the first half of 2026 [2] - The market is likely to experience a "value on stage, growth in action" dynamic, particularly as the Lunar New Year approaches [9] - There is a notable expectation for structural opportunities in sectors like AI, new energy, and controlled nuclear fusion, which are aligned with the "14th Five-Year Plan" [6][10]

美国经济有望实现修复继续支撑美股 在市场高度关注的"去美元化"话题上，刘刚给出了客观判断：去美元化确实存在，但并非普遍性趋势，不应无限外推。数据显示，部分资金在增持 美债的同时，另一部分资金将黄金推至新高，这反映的是全球资产配置的二元化割裂与再平衡，而非全面的去美元化浪潮。在外资流向方面，市场 呈现明显分化：愿意配置中国资产的资金已实现标配甚至超配，而部分美资等资金仍处于犹豫纠结状态，低配程度有所扩大，这一现象背后与全球 信用周期的变化密切相关。 针对美国市场，刘刚作出了偏积极的预判：基准情形下，美国经济及美股有望实现修复，甚至存在阶段性过热的可能，后续再需警惕过热后的风险 释放。在备受关注的AI领域，刘刚认为讨论"是否会成为泡沫"并无太大意义，关键在于判断当前所处阶段。通过对比需求、投资与资本市场定价 三个维度，当前AI领域的预期虽偏高，但尚未达到2000年互联网泡沫顶点的亢奋状态，仍处于值得把握的发展阶段。 财政政策方面，美国2026年确定性将呈现扩张态势。"大美丽法案" 有望带来1个百分点的增量贡献，而下半年中期选举相关的政策发力可能带来额 外上行风险，若增量投资落地，将对全球强周期板块形成拉动。传统需 ...