Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the industry investment rating in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints The report predicts that the prices of coking coal and coke may first decline and then rise in the future. Despite short - term adjustments, the prices are expected to maintain an upward trend due to the easing of the tense situation in the news, the recovery of coke supply, the replenishment of coke inventory by steel mills, and the replenishment of coking coal inventory by coking plants [11]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1行情回顾与后市展望 - **Market Performance on March 30th**: The main contracts 2605 of coke and coking coal futures rebounded and then weakened again. The closing price of J2605 was 1753.5 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 0.20%, and the trading volume was 13,198 lots. The closing price of JM2605 was 1214 yuan/ton, with a daily decrease of 0.33%, and the trading volume was 756,767 lots [6]. - **Spot Market and Technical Analysis**: On March 30th, the spot prices of quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke at Rizhao Port, Qingdao Port, and Tianjin Port remained unchanged at 1470 yuan/ton. The price of low - sulfur main coking coal in Luliang decreased by 73 yuan/ton to 1530 yuan/ton. The KDJ indicators of the daily lines of coke and coking coal 2605 contracts continued to decline, and the red bars of the MACD of the daily lines of the two contracts narrowed for 4 consecutive trading days [9]. - **Future Outlook**: The BHP event has shown some signs of improvement, and the conflict between the US and Iran may ease. In terms of fundamentals, independent coking enterprises have been profitable for 2 consecutive weeks, and their coke production has reached a new high since late October last year. The coke inventories of ports and steel mills have increased for 2 - 3 consecutive weeks, while the coke inventory of coking enterprises has decreased for 3 consecutive weeks. From March 16th to 21st, the customs clearance volume of Mongolian coal decreased by 2.8% on average at the Ganqimaodu Port. The coking coal inventory of coking plants has significantly increased from a low level in the past 3 weeks, and the coking coal inventory of steel mills has increased steadily [10][11]. 3.2 Industry News - **Environmental Protection Supervision**: The third round and fifth batch of the Central Ecological and Environmental Protection Inspection Teams have provided feedback on routine inspections to 3 provinces (municipalities) including Beijing, Tianjin, and Hebei, and 5 central enterprises. They have also provided written feedback on the special inspection of the ecological environment protection of the Grand Canal to 8 provinces (municipalities) [12]. - **Atmospheric Pollution Prevention**: The Ministry of Ecology and Environment held a symposium on the prevention and control of air pollution in the middle reaches of the Yangtze River. The minister emphasized focusing on the structural adjustment of key industries, the clean and efficient use of coal, and the clean transportation of key industries [12]. - **Automobile Sales**: In 2025, the global automobile sales volume was 96.89 million units, a year - on - year increase of 6%. In February 2026, the global automobile sales volume was 6.74 million units, a year - on - year decrease of 2%. From January to February 2026, the global automobile sales volume was 13.96 million units, a year - on - year increase of 0.1%. The share of the Chinese automobile market in the world decreased from 35.4% in 2025 to 29.7% in 2026 [12]. - **Climate in the Yangtze River Basin**: The climate in the Yangtze River Basin in 2026 is generally poor. It is expected that the precipitation during the flood season will be normal to slightly less, and the water inflow will be low, with uneven temporal and spatial distribution [13]. - **Corporate Reports**: In 2025, China National Coal Group Corporation's operating income was 148.057 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 21.83%; its net profit was 17.884 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 7.27%. Shanghai Energy's operating income was 7.677 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 19.09%; its net profit was 220 million yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 69.2%. Huaibei Mining's operating income was 41.238 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 37.40%; its net profit was 1.506 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 68.98%. Hengyuan Coal & Electricity's operating income was 5.533 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 20.65%; it had a net loss of 192 million yuan [13]. - **International Events**: An Iranian steel plant suspended production due to air strikes. Maersk will charge an inland fuel surcharge in the US. The probability of the Fed raising interest rates by 25 basis points in April is 2.1%, and the probability of keeping the interest rate unchanged is 97.9%. Indonesia plans to promote the B50 biodiesel blending policy this year. Australia will halve the fuel tax for three months and postpone the next fuel tax increase by 6 months. South Korea may expand driving restrictions if oil prices exceed $120 per barrel. Egypt has taken energy - saving measures. India plans to negotiate with Argentina, Indonesia, and Oman to ensure the supply of key steel - making raw materials [13][14]. 3.3 Data Overview The report provides multiple data charts, including the spot price index of metallurgical coke, the spot price of main coking coal, the production and capacity utilization rate of coking plants and steel mills, the daily average pig iron production, the coke and coking coal inventories of ports, steel mills, and coking plants, and the basis of coke and coking coal contracts [16][20][21][28][29][30].

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Gold: Geopolitical tensions ease [2][4]. - Silver: Drops from the trading range [2][4]. - Copper: A stronger US dollar restricts price recovery [2][7]. - Zinc: Shows a slightly bullish trend [2][10]. - Lead: Lacks driving forces and prices fluctuate [2][13]. - Tin: Trades within a range [2][16]. - Aluminum: Supply issues continue to escalate [2][20]. - Alumina: Shows a slightly bearish trend [2][20]. - Cast aluminum alloy: Follows the trend of electrolytic aluminum [2][20]. - Platinum: Mainly trades in a sideways range [2][24]. - Palladium: Trades in a narrow range [2][24]. - Nickel: Inventory accumulation slows down marginally, and the mining end supports the upward shift of pyrometallurgical costs [2][36]. - Stainless steel: Prices fluctuate as demand and cost factors compete [2][37]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Gold and Silver - **Price and Trading Volume**: For gold, the closing prices of Shanghai Gold 2602 and Gold T+D increased by 1.59% and 1.66% respectively, with trading volumes decreasing. For silver, the closing prices of Shanghai Silver 2602 and Silver T+D increased by 1.13% and 0.54% respectively, with trading volumes showing different trends [4]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of Shanghai Gold remained unchanged, while the inventory of Comex Gold decreased by 192,945 ounces. The inventory of Shanghai Silver increased by 2,628 kilograms, and the inventory of Comex Silver decreased by 250,587 ounces [4]. - **Macro - News**: Powell stated that the Fed's interest rates are in a "favorable position", and traders expect a possible rate cut this year. The White House said Trump hopes to reach an agreement by April 6, but Iran denies the negotiation [4][6]. Copper - **Price and Trading Volume**: The closing price of the Shanghai Copper main contract decreased by 0.18%, with trading volume and open interest decreasing. The closing price of LME Copper 3M increased by 0.44%, with trading volume and open interest also decreasing [7]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of Shanghai Copper decreased by 6,105 tons, and the inventory of LME Copper increased by 2,350 tons [7]. - **Macro - News**: Similar to gold, including Powell's remarks and US - Iran negotiation news. Industry news shows that China's refined copper production from January to February increased by 9% year - on - year, and Peru's copper production in January increased by 3% year - on - year [7][9]. Zinc - **Price and Trading Volume**: The closing price of the Shanghai Zinc main contract increased by 0.68%, with trading volume and open interest decreasing. The closing price of LME Zinc 3M increased by 1.07%, with trading volume and open interest decreasing [10]. - **News**: Trump said Iran has agreed to "most of the content" in the "15 - point plan", and the Iran - related war is changing the energy pattern [11]. Lead - **Price and Trading Volume**: The closing price of the Shanghai Lead main contract decreased by 0.36%, with trading volume and open interest decreasing. The closing price of LME Lead 3M increased by 0.69%, with trading volume decreasing and open interest increasing [13]. - **News**: Similar to copper, including Powell's remarks and US - Iran negotiation news [14]. Tin - **Price and Trading Volume**: The closing price of the Shanghai Tin main contract increased by 4.20%, with trading volume increasing and open interest increasing. The closing price of LME Tin 3M increased by 0.35%, with trading volume decreasing and open interest decreasing [17]. - **Macro - News**: Similar to other metals, including Powell's remarks and some policy - related news [19]. Aluminum, Alumina, and Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Price and Trading Volume**: For electrolytic aluminum, the closing price of the Shanghai Aluminum main contract increased, with trading volume and open interest showing different trends. For alumina, the closing price of the Shanghai Alumina main contract decreased, and for cast aluminum alloy, the closing price of the main contract increased [20]. - **Inventory**: The domestic social inventory of aluminum ingots increased, and the inventory of LME aluminum ingots decreased [20]. - **News**: Powell's remarks and Trump's threat to Iran [22]. Platinum and Palladium - **Price and Trading Volume**: The prices of platinum futures and related spot increased, while the prices of palladium futures and related spot showed mixed trends. Trading volumes and open interests also changed differently [25]. - **Macro - News**: Policy is in a favorable position, and private credit does not pose a systemic risk. Market expectations for Fed rate hikes have changed, and there are various events related to the Iran situation [27][28]. Nickel and Stainless Steel - **Price and Trading Volume**: The closing price of the Shanghai Nickel main contract increased slightly, and the closing price of the stainless - steel main contract decreased slightly. Trading volumes and open interests showed different trends [37]. - **Industry News**: Indonesia plans to adjust the benchmark price of nickel ore, and some nickel - related companies have production - related news. Inventory data shows changes in refined nickel, new - energy, and nickel - iron - stainless - steel inventories [37][43].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for Huabei Mining (600985.SH) with a target price of 18.34 CNY [7][4] Core Views - The company is expected to enter a profitable phase as ongoing projects are set to be completed within the year [2][3] - The company's earnings are projected to recover following the rebound in coking coal prices, with EPS estimates for 2026-2028 at 0.90, 1.31, and 1.54 CNY respectively [4][10] - Significant capital expenditures are anticipated to decrease as major projects reach completion, which will positively impact profitability [10][4] Financial Summary - Revenue for 2025 is reported at 41.125 billion CNY, a decline of 37.4% year-on-year, with a forecasted recovery to 44.464 billion CNY in 2026 [6][10] - The net profit attributable to the parent company for 2025 is 1.506 billion CNY, down 69.0% year-on-year, with a projected increase to 2.420 billion CNY in 2026 [6][10] - The gross margin is expected to improve from 18.4% in 2025 to 22.0% in 2026, reflecting better pricing and operational efficiency [6][10] - The company’s capital expenditure is projected to decrease significantly as major projects like the Tao Hutu coal mine and the power plant come online [10][4]

Group 1: Coal Price Data - The latest price of Dantangou low-sulfur primary coking coal is 1464, with a monthly change of -21 and an annual change of +257 [1] - The latest price of Huangjiagou lean coal is 703, with a monthly change of +52 and an annual change of +203 [1] - The latest price of Shenjiamao lean primary coking coal is 1288, with a weekly change of -23, a monthly change of +18, and an annual change of +226 [1] - The latest price of Meng 5 raw coal is 1141, with a daily change of +2, a weekly change of -24, a monthly change of +146, and an annual change of +286 [1] - The latest price of Meng 4 raw coal is 1100, with a monthly change of +130 and an annual change of +220 [1] - The latest price of PLV (in US dollars) is 223, with a weekly change of +3, a monthly change of +5, and an annual change of +40 [1] - The latest price of PMV (in US dollars) is 223, with a weekly change of +3, a monthly change of +5, and an annual change of +39 [1] - The latest price of HCC (in US dollars) is 204, with a weekly change of +7, a monthly change of +14, and an annual change of +23 [1] - The latest price of SEMISOFT (in US dollars) is 123, with a weekly change of +2, a monthly change of +8, and an annual change of +13 [1] Group 2: Futures Contract and Basis Data - The latest value of the 01 contract is 1543.5, with a daily change of -6.5, a weekly change of -56.0, a monthly change of +151.0, and an annual change of +413.5 [1] - The latest value of the 05 contract is 1214.0, with a daily change of -5.0, a weekly change of -75.5, a monthly change of +120.0, and an annual change of +206.0 [1] - The latest value of the 09 contract is 1352.5, with a daily change of -4.5, a weekly change of -26.0, a monthly change of +158.0, and an annual change of +280.0 [1] - The 1 - month basis is -402.5, with a daily change of +11.5, a weekly change of +32.0, and a monthly change of -23.0 [1] - The 5 - month basis is -73.0, with a daily change of +10.0, a weekly change of +51.5, and a monthly change of +8.0 [1] - The 9 - month basis is -211.5, with a daily change of +9.5, a weekly change of +2.0, and a monthly change of -30.0 [1] - The 1 - 5 month spread is 329.5, with a daily change of -1.5, a weekly change of +19.5, a monthly change of +31.0, and an annual change of +207.5 [1] - The 5 - 9 month spread is -138.5, with a daily change of -0.5, a weekly change of -49.5, a monthly change of -38.0, and an annual change of -74.0 [1] - The 9 - 1 month spread is -191.0, with a daily change of +2.0, a weekly change of +30.0, a monthly change of +7.0, and an annual change of -133.5 [1] Group 3: Data Graphs and Inventory Information - There are data graphs related to Shenjiamao lean primary coking coal, Mongolian coal warehouse receipts, coking plant inventory, steel mill inventory, washery inventory, port inventory, coal mine production, and washery production [2][3][4][5][9][10][11][12] - There is information about the inventory of high - quality low - volatility coal and Meng 5 raw coal, including port inventory and total inventory [14]

Group 1: Coke Price Data - The latest price of Xuyang quasi-dry quenching coke is 1535, with a daily change of 1, a weekly change not provided, a monthly change of -22, and an annual change of +35 [1] - The latest price of Pengfei quasi-dry quenching coke is 1475, with a daily change of 1, a weekly change not provided, a monthly change of -22, and an annual change of +35 [1] - The latest price of Changsheng quasi-wet quenching coke is 1280, with a daily change not provided, a weekly change not provided, a monthly change of -50, and an annual change of +30 [1] - The latest price of Lu'an quasi-dry quenching coke is 1535, with a daily change of 1, a weekly change of 1, a monthly change of -22, and an annual change of +35 [1] - The latest price of Pingmei quasi-wet quenching coke is 1550, with a daily change not provided, a weekly change not provided, a monthly change not provided, and an annual change of +130 [1] - The latest price of Haiyan quasi-dry quenching coke is 1490, with a daily change not provided, a weekly change not provided, a monthly change of -22, and an annual change of +160 [1] - The latest price of Rizhao Steel quasi-dry quenching coke is 1640, with a daily change not provided, a weekly change not provided, a monthly change not provided, and an annual change of -1010 [1] - The latest price of Rizhao Steel quasi-wet quenching coke is 1395, with a daily change not provided, a weekly change of 1, a monthly change not provided, and an annual change of -885 [1] - The latest price of Rizhao Port quasi-wet quenching coke is 1490, with a daily change of -10, a weekly change of -10, a monthly change of +10, and an annual change of +150 [1] Group 2: Coke Futures Contract Data - The latest value of the 01 contract is 1923.0, with a daily change of -3.0, a weekly change of -81.5, a monthly change of +105.0, and an annual change of +187.0 [1] - The latest value of the 05 contract is 1753.5, with a daily change of +1.5, a weekly change of -93.5, a monthly change of +101.5, and an annual change of +105.5 [1] - The latest value of the 09 contract is 1842.0, with a daily change of +2.5, a weekly change of -73.0, a monthly change of +111.0, and an annual change of +156.0 [1] - The 1 - month basis is -193.4, with a daily change of -7.9, a weekly change of +70.6, a monthly change of -94.1, and an annual change of +53.4 [1] - The 5 - month basis is -23.9, with a daily change of -12.4, a weekly change of +82.6, a monthly change of -90.6, and an annual change of +134.9 [1] - The 9 - month basis is -112.4, with a daily change of -13.4, a weekly change of +62.1, a monthly change of -100.1, and an annual change of +84.4 [1] - The 1 - 5 month spread is 169.5, with a daily change of -4.5, a weekly change of +12.0, a monthly change of +3.5, and an annual change of +81.5 [1] - The 5 - 9 month spread is -88.5, with a daily change of -1.0, a weekly change of -20.5, a monthly change of -9.5, and an annual change of -50.5 [1] - The 9 - 1 month spread is -81.0, with a daily change of +5.5, a weekly change of +8.5, a monthly change of +6.0, and an annual change of -31.0 [1] Group 3: Coke Data Graphs - There are graphs related to coke including prices of Xuyang, Rizhao Steel, and Rizhao Port coke, as well as graphs of Shanxi warehouse receipts, main contract basis, port warehouse receipts, steel mill inventory, coking inventory, port inventory, independent coking production, steel mill coking production, total inventory, iron - water production, and coke consumption over different months [3][4]

焦炭：本周一轮提涨预计落地，宽幅震荡 焦煤：宽幅震荡 刘豫武 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0023649 liuyuwu2@gtht.com 商 品 研 究 2026 年 03 月 31 日 【基本面跟踪】 焦煤焦炭基本面数据 | | | JM2605 | 昨日收盘价(元/吨) 1214 | 涨跌(元/吨) -5 | 涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | | -0.4% | | 期货价格 | | 12605 | 1753. 5 | 1.5 | 0. 1% | | | | | 昨日成交(手) | 昨日持仓(手) | 持仓变动(手) | | | | JM2605 | 756767 | 399980 | -1113 | | | | 12605 | 13198 | 29837 | -436 | | | | | 昨日价格(元/吨) | 前日价格(元/吨) | 涨跌(元/吨) | | | | 临汾低硫主焦 | 1580 | 1580 | 0 | | | | 吕梁低硫主焦 | 1532 | 1530 | 2 | | | 焦煤 | 吕梁瘦主焦煤 | 1288 | ...

Group 1: Medical and Biological Sector - The core conclusion is that Yingke Medical (300677.SZ) is a global leader in disposable protective gloves, with significant cost, capacity, and financial advantages, leading in production and revenue scale in China and globally [6][7] - The disposable glove industry is experiencing a supply-demand improvement, with the company expanding nitrile glove production capacity, enhancing market share and profitability, leading to a strong growth outlook [6][7] - The company’s revenue for 2024 and Q1 2025 showed a year-on-year increase of 37.6% and 4.6%, respectively, with profits increasing by 282.6% and 34.5% [6] Group 2: Media Sector - Xindong Company (02400.HK) reported a revenue of 57.64 billion yuan for 2025, a year-on-year increase of 15.0%, and a net profit of 15.35 billion yuan, up 89.2% [9] - The gaming business revenue reached 37.96 billion yuan, growing by 10.5%, driven by several successful new games [9][10] - The TapTap platform revenue increased by 24.7% to 19.68 billion yuan, with user engagement metrics showing positive trends [10] Group 3: Construction and Decoration Sector - China Energy Construction (601868.SH) achieved a revenue of 4529.30 billion yuan in 2025, a year-on-year increase of 3.71%, but net profit decreased by 30.44% [12][13] - The company’s overseas business showed strong growth, with a 34.65% increase in revenue from international operations [12] - The company is focusing on hydrogen energy, energy storage, and computing power, with significant investments in these areas [13] Group 4: Non-ferrous Metals Sector - Luoyang Molybdenum (603993.SH) reported a revenue of 2066.8 billion yuan in 2025, a decrease of 3.0%, while net profit increased by 50.3% [16][17] - The company’s copper production reached 741,100 tons, a year-on-year increase of 14.0%, positioning it among the top ten copper producers globally [17] - The company is pursuing a dual-core strategy focusing on copper and gold, with significant acquisitions planned to enhance production capacity [18] Group 5: Automotive Sector - XPeng Motors (9868.HK) reported total revenue of 767.2 billion yuan in 2025, a year-on-year increase of 87.7%, with a significant improvement in gross margin [20][21] - The company achieved a delivery volume of 429,400 vehicles, a 125% increase year-on-year, contributing to a substantial rise in automotive sales revenue [20] - The service and other income reached 83.4 billion yuan, growing by 65.6%, driven by technology services and government subsidies [21] Group 6: Agriculture, Forestry, Animal Husbandry, and Fishery Sector - Muyuan Foods (002714.SZ) reported a revenue of 1441.45 billion yuan in 2025, a year-on-year increase of 4.49%, but net profit decreased by 13.39% [24][25] - The company’s pig production volume increased by 19.10% year-on-year, but low pig prices negatively impacted overall profitability [25][26] - The slaughtering business achieved its first annual profit, with a capacity utilization rate of 98.8% [25] Group 7: Non-bank Financial Sector - New China Life Insurance (601336.SH) reported a net profit of 362.8 billion yuan in 2025, a year-on-year increase of 38.3% [31][32] - The company’s new business value (NBV) increased by 57.4%, indicating strong growth in its insurance sales channels [31] - Total investment income rose by 30.9% to 104.3 billion yuan, significantly contributing to profitability [32] Group 8: Aluminum Sector - Yun Aluminum (000807.SZ) achieved a revenue of 600.43 billion yuan in 2025, a year-on-year increase of 10.27%, with net profit rising by 37.24% [35][36] - The company’s gross margin improved to 16.79%, reflecting enhanced operational efficiency [35] - The company plans to develop a full industrial chain focusing on green aluminum production, with production targets set for 2026 [37]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The mid - term outlook for the industry is "oscillation" [6] 2. Core View of the Report - The real - world and expected scenarios are in a state of game, leading to a differentiated performance in the sector. The cost side disturbances may be repeated, and continuous attention should be paid to geopolitical and iron ore supply - side disturbances. The bullish expectations for the peak season are cautious, and the upward driving force from the real - world side remains to be verified. If the geopolitical conflict persists, price support will be strong; if it eases, prices may face a correction [1][2][6] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Iron Element - **Iron Ore**: The ongoing US - Iran conflict and the tight liquidity of some spot varieties support the futures and spot prices of iron ore. However, the overall de - stocking is difficult to achieve due to the loose supply - demand situation, which suppresses the upside valuation of prices. Iron ore is expected to show an oscillatory performance. The short - term trend depends on the spot liquidity of some varieties and the development of the US - Iran conflict, and recent fluctuations may increase [2][9] - **Scrap Steel**: The short - term arrival of scrap steel remains stable overall, and the demand from long - process steelmaking is slowly recovering. The fundamentals continue to be in a weak equilibrium, and it is expected to operate in an oscillatory manner in the short term. Attention should be paid to the actual recovery progress of terminal demand [2][10] 3.2 Carbon Element - **Coke**: In the short term, both supply and demand of coke are increasing, and the resumption of iron - making production may be faster. There is still support from the spot cost side. After the first round of spot price increase is implemented, it is expected to remain stable, and the futures price is expected to follow the cost side of coking coal [3][11] - **Coking Coal**: The trading logic of coking coal futures is shifting from energy substitution to warehouse - receipt delivery. With the decline in restocking demand, continuous import pressure, and the approaching delivery of the main contract, the futures price may be under pressure. However, geopolitical disturbances will still support the futures price, and it is expected to operate in a wide - range oscillation [3][12] 3.3 Alloys - **Manganese Silicon**: Geopolitical disturbances continue, and the expectations of rising manganese ore import costs and electricity costs for high - energy - consuming products are difficult to disprove. However, considering the loose supply - demand situation, high inventory, and difficult cost transfer in the manganese - silicon market, there is still a risk of correction in the medium - to - long - term valuation above the cost level [3][14][15] - **Silicon Iron**: Geopolitical disturbances continue, and the expectation of increasing electricity costs for high - energy - consuming products is difficult to disprove. However, the problem of over - capacity in the silicon - iron industry is serious. The continuous repair of industry profits may accelerate the resumption of production by manufacturers, leading to a more relaxed supply - demand relationship. In the medium - to - long - term, there is a risk of correction when the futures valuation is significantly higher than the comprehensive cost of manufacturers [6][16] 3.4 Glass and Soda Ash - **Glass**: There are still expectations of supply disturbances, but the inventory of middle and downstream is moderately high. Currently, the supply - demand situation is still in surplus. If production and sales do not improve continuously, high inventory will always suppress prices [6][13] - **Soda Ash**: The supply is stable at a high level in the short term, and the overall supply - demand is still in surplus. It is expected to oscillate in the short term. In the long term, the surplus pattern will intensify, and the price center will continue to decline, promoting capacity reduction [6][14] 3.5 Steel - The cost performance is differentiated, and the futures price operates in an oscillatory manner. The spot transaction has improved, the steel mill profitability has increased, and the production is gradually returning to normal. The downstream demand is slowly releasing, and the inventory is decreasing, but the overall inventory level is still moderately high. The impact of the decline in Iranian steel supply is limited in the short term. The futures price still has downward pressure, but cost - side disturbances may be repeated [8] 3.6 Commodity Index - On March 30, 2026, the comprehensive index of CITIC Futures commodities, the commodity 20 index, and the industrial products index increased by 0.96%, 1.01%, and 1.10% respectively. The steel industry chain index increased by 0.33% on that day, decreased by 1.20% in the past 5 days, increased by 6.47% in the past month, and increased by 2.87% since the beginning of the year [100][102]

Market Sentiment - The market sentiment indicator as of March 27 is 1.2, down from 1.7 the previous week, indicating a bearish outlook as sentiment continues to decline throughout the week [1][6]. - The price-volume consistency indicator and RSI have both turned negative this week, reflecting a shift from previous oscillation to a sustained bearish view, indicating a weakening market [1][8]. Trading Volume - The total trading volume for the A-share market decreased by 0.65% week-on-week, with an average daily trading volume of 1,394.17 billion yuan, suggesting a slight decline in market activity compared to the previous week [1][10]. Industry Performance - As of March 27, the short-term score rankings for industries show that utilities, coal, power equipment, telecommunications, and oil and petrochemicals are leading, with utilities scoring 91.53, the highest among industries, and coal scoring 84.75, second [1][34]. - The industry crowding indicator shows a low correlation of 0.17 with the weekly price changes, indicating that the crowding level is not significantly impacting price movements [1][37]. Risk Appetite - The relative trading volume of the Sci-Tech 50 index remains low, indicating that market risk appetite is also low, with a slight fluctuation observed [1][13]. - The financing balance ratio has slightly increased this week, suggesting a minor rise in market sentiment and trading activity in the financing market [1][21]. Technical Indicators - The RSI indicator has penetrated the lower boundary and continues to decline rapidly, indicating a weakening short-term momentum [1][25]. - The main buying power indicator has shown a downward trend, reflecting reduced willingness from institutional investors to actively allocate capital in the market [1][28].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The market is significantly influenced by the tense situation between the US and Iran, with risk aversion increasing, and the prices of various assets showing different trends [1][2][6]. - The supply and demand fundamentals of different commodities vary, with some facing supply disruptions and others having changes in demand [4][35][42]. - The monetary policy of the Federal Reserve is in a wait - and - see state, and the impact of the Iran - US conflict on inflation needs further observation [15][18]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Financial News and Comments 3.1.1 Macro Strategy (Gold) - Fed Chairman Powell said there is a contradiction between the Fed's two goals, and short - term monetary policy is in a wait - and - see stage [11]. - Trump threatened to attack Iran, and the gold price oscillated and rose. The decline in US bond yields reduced the pressure on precious metals. Gold prices continued the oscillatory bottom - building trend [12]. - Investment advice: The short - term trends of gold and silver prices are oscillatory, and the rebound strength is weak [13]. 3.1.2 Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - US Dollar Index) - Rubio said the US may re - evaluate its relationship with NATO after the Iran war, and Powell said the Fed can wait and see the impact of the war on inflation [14][15]. - Trump pressured Iran to reopen the Strait, market risk aversion weakened, and the US dollar index rebounded in the short term [16]. - Investment advice: The US dollar index will maintain a high level in the short term [17]. 3.1.3 Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - Powell said that energy price shocks are often short - term, and monetary policy usually ignores such shocks, but inflation expectations need to be closely monitored [18]. - Trump hoped to reach an agreement with Iran before April 6, but Iran denied the negotiation. Iran's parliament approved a bill to charge tolls on ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz. The short - term probability of reaching an agreement is low, and US stocks opened higher and closed lower [19][20]. - Investment advice: It is expected that US stocks will operate weakly in the short term, and it is recommended to wait for a clear right - hand signal [21]. 3.1.4 Macro Strategy (Stock Index Futures) - The State Administration for Market Regulation aims to prevent and control "involution - style" competition in key industries. A - shares oscillated and strengthened, but the signal of the stock index turning from a rebound to a reversal has not appeared [22]. - Investment advice: It is still recommended to hold a low - position to avoid risks [23]. 3.1.5 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - The central bank conducted 269.5 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net investment of 261.5 billion yuan on the day [24]. - The market expectations are chaotic, and the capital and institutional behavior dominate the market. Treasury bond futures strengthened, but the cost - performance of chasing the rise is low [24][25]. - Investment advice: The cost - performance of chasing the rise is low [26]. 3.2 Commodity News and Comments 3.2.1 Black Metal (Iron Ore) - Rio Tinto's iron ore port operations in Western Australia have fully recovered, but the iron ore price continued to oscillate weakly. The long - term price decline pressure increased, and the short - term spot is expected to be weakly stable [27][28]. - Investment advice: The iron ore price will continue to oscillate weakly, and the long - term price decline pressure will increase [28]. 3.2.2 Black Metal (Coking Coal/Coke) - The price of coking coal in Lvliang Lishi market decreased. The overall coking coal supply is slightly reduced, but the national output is still at a high level. The inventory is decreasing, but the market sentiment has weakened recently [29]. - Investment advice: In the short term, the futures price is supported by energy issues, but the overall supply - demand pattern is loose, and attention should be paid to changes in the demand side [29]. 3.2.3 Black Metal (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil) - The transportation department completed 355.8 billion yuan of transportation fixed - asset investment from January to February. Mexico made an anti - dumping preliminary ruling on Chinese hot - rolled steel [30][31]. - The steel price oscillated after opening higher. The supply - demand contradiction of finished products is not prominent, and it is difficult to form a smooth trend. It is expected that the steel price will oscillate slightly stronger in the short term [31]. - Investment advice: It is recommended to adopt an oscillatory thinking and pay attention to the situation in the Middle East and energy prices [32]. 3.2.4 Agricultural Products (Soybean Meal) - The soybean inventory of major oil mills decreased, the soybean meal inventory increased slightly, and the unexecuted contracts decreased. Brazil's soybean harvest progress is behind last year [32][33][34]. - The market expects the US soybean quarterly inventory to reach 2.063 billion bushels. It is recommended to pay attention to the USDA report and the actual arrival of Brazilian soybeans [35]. - Investment advice: The soybean meal futures price will oscillate for the time being, and attention should be paid to the USDA report and the actual arrival of Brazilian soybeans [35]. 3.2.5 Agricultural Products (Corn) - Ukraine's grain exports decreased by 20.4% year - on - year. The domestic supply side has changes in sales progress, imports, and inventory. The downstream demand has support, and the policy provides bottom - line support [36][37]. - Investment advice: The corn price will maintain a high - level oscillation. It is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of selling call options [38]. 3.2.6 Agricultural Products (Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil/Palm Oil) - The Indonesian president said the country will promote the B50 biodiesel project this year, which strengthened the possibility of its implementation and the palm oil price rose [39]. - Investment advice: In the short term, the palm oil price will be strong. It is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of going long on the far - month contracts [40]. 3.2.7 Non - ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - The market supervision department will prevent and control "involution - style" competition in key industries. EVE Energy's subsidiary plans to invest 6 billion yuan to build a 60GWh power energy - storage battery project [40][41]. - The lithium carbonate futures price oscillated strongly, the spot trading weakened, the supply side was tight, and the demand side focused on power demand [41][42]. - Investment advice: It is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of going long at low prices, but it is difficult for the spot to drive the futures price to break through the previous high before the supply disruption is realized [43]. 3.2.8 Non - ferrous Metals (Platinum) - The prices of platinum and palladium oscillated upward, mainly following the trend of precious metals. The supply side has risks, and the demand side has support [44]. - Investment advice: It is recommended to wait and see on the long - short side, pay attention to the evolution of the geopolitical situation, and pay attention to the risk - free arbitrage opportunity in the month - spread [46]. 3.2.9 Non - ferrous Metals (Lead) - The LME lead price was in a low - level oscillation, and the domestic social inventory decreased slightly. The downstream consumption will face the off - season, and the lead price may test the support level again [46][47]. - Investment advice: It is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of buying at a low price on the long - short side and wait and see on the arbitrage side [47]. 3.2.10 Non - ferrous Metals (Zinc) - The domestic zinc inventory decreased slightly, the zinc price oscillated upward, and the LME structure changed. The market liquidity has problems, and it is recommended to wait and see [48][49]. - Investment advice: It is recommended to wait and see on the long - short side, and the previous long positions are recommended to take profits at high prices. Wait and see on the arbitrage side [49]. 3.2.11 Non - ferrous Metals (Copper) - Glomar and Cobalt Blue plan to build a deep - sea mineral processing plant, and the Canadian government tries to save a copper smelter. Congo (Kinshasa) and China signed a mineral cooperation agreement [50][51][52]. - The copper price is suppressed by the risk of war escalation and liquidity panic. The domestic inventory is decreasing, and the overseas demand is weak [52]. - Investment advice: It is recommended to wait and see on the long - short side and pay attention to the domestic - foreign inter - period positive arbitrage strategy [53]. 3.2.12 Non - ferrous Metals (Tin) - The LME tin price had a discount, and the domestic and overseas inventories changed. The supply side has a tight pattern in the short term, and the demand side is weak [54][55][56]. - Investment advice: The tin price will oscillate widely. It is recommended to pay attention to the supply situation of major producing areas and the change of macro trends [56]. 3.2.13 Energy Chemicals (Crude Oil) - Iran's parliament approved a bill to charge tolls on ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz. The oil price oscillated strongly, and the negotiation between the US and Iran has large differences [57][58]. - Investment advice: Pay attention to the situation in the Middle East, and the oil price is expected to oscillate strongly [58]. 3.2.14 Energy Chemicals (Liquefied Petroleum Gas) - The domestic LPG port inventory increased slightly. The domestic and foreign LPG prices oscillated, and the market atmosphere was good. The conflict between the US and Iran may intensify [59]. - Investment advice: Pay attention to the development of the geopolitical situation and the dynamics between the US and Iran [60]. 3.2.15 Energy Chemicals (Urea) - The compound fertilizer capacity utilization rate increased. The urea futures price rebounded, the inventory decreased, and the demand was supported, but the export policy may restrict the upward space [60][61]. - Investment advice: The near - term urea futures price will continue to oscillate in a range [62]. 3.2.16 Energy Chemicals (Styrene) - The pure benzene inventory in East China ports decreased. The prices of pure benzene and styrene were strong. The supply of pure benzene is expected to decrease, and the export of styrene is expected to be realized [63][64]. - Investment advice: It is recommended to go long at low prices in general [65]. 3.2.17 Energy Chemicals (Asphalt) - The asphalt refinery and social inventories increased. The cost side supported the price, but the terminal demand has not fully started, and the inventory digestion is slow [66]. - Investment advice: The geopolitical risk continues, and the downside support is strong [67]. 3.2.18 Shipping Index (Container Freight Rate) - Hapag - Lloyd's 2025 revenue was about $21.1 billion, and it issued a cautious warning for 2026. The Middle East geopolitical situation has an impact on the container freight rate, with the far - month contracts rising and the near - month contracts oscillating weakly [68][69]. - Investment advice: The near - month contracts return to the spot logic, and the far - month contracts are easy to rise and difficult to fall. It is recommended to maintain an oscillatory thinking and pay attention to the US - Iran situation [70].