证券研究报告 | 策略报告 gszqdatemark 2026 03 01 年 月 日 投资策略 3 月策略观点与金股推荐：布局"涨价"扩散，博弈政策催化 一、3 月市场观点：布局"涨价"扩散，博弈政策催化 二月以来，多重因素正在推动资金定价向"涨价"条线倾斜。其一，叙事层面，AI 科技革命的叙事定价逻辑开始向实物资产"外溢"；其二，供需层面，在逆全球化 的大背景下，地缘变数的增多进一步带动了各国的资源战略调整，致使生产端实 际供需偏紧的局面可能将在更多商品中陆续显现；其三，价格数据层面，无论是海 外还是国内，通胀数据呈现同步上行，产业链中的涨价环节也有所扩散；其四，资 金轮动视角下，尽管 AI 产业的长期趋势无虞，但融资扩张与资本回报的矛盾越久， 资金定价的分歧也将更易放大。每一次科技条线的颠簸，都难免引发资金分流，而 在非 AI 需求尚未确认转强之前，兼顾供给约束基础和需求改善预期的"涨价"条 线显然比其他方向更具吸引力，也更容易在资金轮动中受益。 大势层面，中期趋势向好，市场有望震荡再向上。中期维度，分子与分母共振向好 的期待没有改变。盈利层面，供需双向发力的政策路径明确，价格端修复的趋势延 续，上游向 ...

证券研究报告 | 金融工程 gszqdatemark 2026 03 01 年 月 日 量化周报 中证 1000、中证 2000 率先创出新高 中证 1000、中证 2000 率先创出新高。本周（2.24-2.27），大盘震荡上 行，上证指数全周收涨 1.98%。在此背景下，中证 1000、中证 2000 率先 创出新高，中证 500 也新高在即。当下，我们认为市场的日线级别上涨大 概率还能持续，理由如下：1、上证指数的上涨只走了 1 浪结构，短期结 束的概率低；2、目前市场量能得以维持，中证 1000、中证 2000 率先创 出新高，中证 500 也新高在即，市场走势整体比较健康；3、传媒、计算 机已于近期重新迎来日线级别上涨，而且上涨只走了 1 浪结构，短期结束 的概率低。我们认为市场在大部分宽基指数新高前风险不大，投资者可安 心持股待涨。从目前的表现来看，资源类板块表现出色，有色、化工、煤 炭、石油等板块后市有望继续强势。中期来看，上证指数、上证 50、沪深 300、中证 500、深证成指、创业板指、科创 50 纷纷确认周线级别上涨， 而且在日线上只走出了 3 浪结构，中期牛市只进行到上半场；此外，已有 ...

Key Insights - The report highlights the competitive landscape in the AI sector during the Spring Festival, with major players like ByteDance, Alibaba, and Tencent achieving significant user engagement and interaction through their AI applications [1][8] - The report discusses the advancements in autonomous driving, including legislative support in the US and significant developments from companies like Tesla and Waymo, indicating a growing market for self-driving technology [2][9] - The US Supreme Court's ruling against the "reciprocal tariffs" imposed by the Trump administration is expected to impact trade dynamics significantly, affecting various sectors [3][10] Recent Key Events - ByteDance's AI model generated over 50 million new year avatars and achieved 19 billion interactions during the Spring Festival, showcasing its strong user engagement [1][8] - Alibaba's "Qianwen" app facilitated nearly 200 million orders during the holiday, with a notable user base of older adults successfully utilizing the service [1][8] - Tencent's user engagement metrics reached new highs, with over 50 million daily active users during the Spring Festival, reflecting the effectiveness of its promotional activities [1][8] Market Situation - The Hang Seng Index fell from 27,387 points at the end of January to 26,381 points by February 26, marking a decline of 3.7% [11] - The Hang Seng Technology Index experienced a more significant drop of 10.6% during the same period [11] - Net inflows from southbound trading reached 75.6 billion HKD in February, indicating a positive trend in capital movement [12] Current Investment Recommendations - Focus on growth-oriented real estate and energy companies such as Beike-W, China Qinfa, and Power Development, which are expected to perform well in the current market [21] - Consider companies benefiting from the adjustment of the Hong Kong Stock Connect, like Leshushi, which is positioned for growth in the African hygiene products market [21] - Internet companies like Alibaba and Tencent are recommended due to their advancements in AI and strong market positions [21] Company-Specific Insights - Beike-W (2423.HK) is positioned as a leader in the real estate brokerage sector, with expected net profits of 37.1 billion CNY in 2025, reflecting a growth trajectory despite market challenges [22][24] - China Qinfa (0866.HK) is transitioning away from coal operations in Shanxi and focusing on its growing Indonesian coal business, with projected profits of 6.1 billion CNY by 2026 [25][26] - Leshushi (2698.HK) is a leading player in the African hygiene products market, with a projected net profit growth of 18.5% in 2025, driven by increasing market penetration [35][36] - Alibaba (9988.HK) is enhancing its AI capabilities with the launch of the Qwen3.5 model, which is expected to drive significant revenue growth across its platforms [39][40] - Tencent (0700.HK) is experiencing strong growth in its gaming and advertising segments, with a projected revenue increase to 7,530 billion CNY by 2025 [44][46]

Group 1: March Market Insights - The report emphasizes a shift towards "price increase" strategies driven by multiple factors, including the narrative of the AI technology revolution spilling over into physical assets, tightening supply-demand dynamics due to geopolitical changes, and rising inflation data both domestically and internationally [1][6][8] - The mid-term outlook remains positive, with expectations of a market rebound supported by dual forces of supply and demand, alongside continued macro liquidity easing [2][8] - The report suggests focusing on sectors that exhibit both supply constraints and demand improvement, such as chemicals, refining, steel, and non-ferrous metals, as well as areas driven by sustained AI demand like storage and PCB [2][8] Group 2: Stock Recommendations - Yanzhou Coal Mining Company (600188.SH) is highlighted for its performance elasticity, with significant increases in coal production and sales expected to enhance profitability [3][9] - Nanshan Aluminum (600219.SH) is noted for its strategic shift towards a technology-driven model and overseas resource expansion, which is anticipated to unlock new profit ceilings [3][13] - Dongyangguang (600673.SH) is recognized for its integration of AIDC and advancements in liquid cooling solutions, positioning it as a leader in AI infrastructure [3][17][20] - Whirlpool (600983.SH) is expected to benefit from the support of major shareholders and a focus on cost reduction and efficiency improvements [3][21] - Ugreen Technology (301606.SZ) is projected to see significant growth driven by its NAS products and expansion in overseas markets [3][23] - Yanjing Beer (000729.SZ) is anticipated to benefit from a recovery in the restaurant sector and a focus on high-margin products [3][26] - Fuling Power (600452.SH) is positioned for growth through its dual business model and collaboration with State Grid, enhancing its operational efficiency [3][28]

煤焦周度观点 国泰君安期货研究所·刘豫武 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0023649 日期：2026年3月1日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint 煤焦：仓单扰动叠加能源属性发酵，宽幅震荡 ◆ 1、供应： ➢ 国内供应，春节期间多数煤矿停产放假，产地供应大幅收紧，中国煤炭资源网统计本周样本煤矿原煤产量周环比减少160.34万吨至1021.77万吨，精煤产量周环节减 少78.21万吨至501.34万吨，产能利用率周环比下降11.16%至71.09%，不过国有煤矿多数停产3-5天，民营煤矿也多于周初陆续复产，预计整体供应将快速恢复。进 口方面，中国煤炭资源网统计本周（2.24-2.26）满都拉口岸共通关3天，日均通关257车，较节前同期日均减少124车。节后下游多谨慎采买，对原料压价意愿较强， 口岸交投氛围冷清，贸易商多挺价观望，口岸报价整体弱稳，其中满都拉主焦煤报价780元/吨左右，周环比基本持平；气原煤口岸报价570-580元/吨，周环比基本 持平。。 ➢ 2、需求： ➢ 市场成交活跃度较前期有所提升，线上竞拍流拍率高位回落 ...

动力煤产业链周度报告 国泰君安期货研究所 黑色金属 樊园园 投资咨询从业资格号： Z0023682 日期： 2026年3月1日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint 动力煤：进口煤价倒挂明显，短期港口涨势或将延续 （3）库存：春节期间港口库存未出现明显累积，北港库存低位运行，港口调入量有所抬升。截止2月27日，北方港（不含黄骅）库存合计2232.0万 吨，周环比增加36.0万吨。本周港口日均调入量107.94万吨，环比增加18.61万吨，日均调出106.8万吨，环比增加21.21万吨。 ◼ 短期主要逻辑：春节过后，动力煤市场迎来开门红，价格延续节前偏强走势，本轮上涨主要受进口煤供应收缩提振。进口煤采购无优势，货源紧缺，内 外价差倒挂，下游刚需转向国内采购，同时带动部分贸易商投机需求；叠加港口库存偏低，卖方报价坚挺，成交价格持续上移。三月市场将逐步进入传 统消费淡季，预计本轮煤价上涨支撑趋弱，上涨持续性有限。一方面，节后主产区煤矿复工复产稳步推进，国内煤炭供应持续恢复；另一方面，下游需 求逐步转入传统淡季，当前沿海电厂库存 ...

- The HALO trading strategy focuses on going long on "AI-resistant and AI-dependent" heavy assets while shorting "AI-disruptible" light assets[2][11] - The strategy suggests focusing on sectors like power grid equipment, energy, mining, industrial equipment, defense, and signal towers[2][11] - Recent market performance indicates initial validation of the HALO strategy, with sectors like non-ferrous metals, military, communication, building materials, machinery, and chemicals performing well over the past quarter[2][11] - The macro strategy chart toolbox helps track the HALO trading status through metrics like crowding and industry differentiation[3][11] - Crowding: Current transaction volume share of cyclical sectors is below the median of the past 10 years, while advanced manufacturing and TMT sectors are around the 85%-90% percentile[3][11] - Industry differentiation: This indicator has been oscillating upwards since the beginning of the year and has now returned to the level of August 2025[3][11] - Historical excess returns: Cyclical sectors are in the early stages of an upward trend after a long-term bottoming, TMT sectors are at historical highs, advanced manufacturing sectors are above the median, and consumption and financial real estate sectors are still at the bottom of the past 20 years[12] - Based on the HALO trading logic and current status, the recommended mid-term allocation priority is "cyclical > advanced manufacturing > TMT"[13]

[Table_Summary] 报告摘要： | [分析师： Table_Author]刘晨明 | | --- | | SAC 执证号：S0260524020001 | | SFC CE No. BVH021 | | 010-59136616 | | liuchenming@gf.com.cn | | 分析师： 郑恺 | | SAC 执证号：S0260515090004 | | SFC CE No. BUU989 | | 021-38003559 | | zhengkai@gf.com.cn | | 分析师： 李如娟 | | SAC 执证号：S0260524030002 | | 020-66336563 | | lirujuan@gf.com.cn | | 请注意，李如娟并非香港证券及期货事务监察委员会的注 | | 册持牌人，不可在香港从事受监管活动。 | [Table_ 相关研究： DocReport] | 假期非美市场延续牛市氛 | 2026-02-23 | | --- | --- | | 围:——春节大事 5 分钟全知 | | | 道 | | | 春节前后，港股如何反 | 2026-02-08 | | 应 ...

煤炭周报 海外供给收缩催化内贸煤需求，煤价有望持续上涨 glmszqdatemark 2026 年 02 月 28 日 风险提示：1）下游需求不及预期；2）煤价大幅下跌；3）政策变化风险。 -10% 3% 17% 30% 2025/2 2025/8 2026/2 煤炭 沪深300 相关研究 本公司具备证券投资咨询业务资格，请务必阅读最后一页免责声明 证券研究报告 1 海外供给收缩催化内贸煤需求，煤价有望持续上涨。节后产地及港口煤价持续上 涨，海外方面，印尼受 RKAB 审批进度及斋月影响供应偏紧、波罗的海冰情限制 俄罗斯煤炭出口，海外市场煤炭供给扰动增强，国际煤价持续上涨，进口煤优势 不再，内贸煤需求提升，此外近期伊朗局势推升油价，伊朗作为全球第二大甲醇 生产国，其甲醇约 75%出口至中国，2025 年中国自伊朗进口甲醇数量占总进口 量的 56.6%，油化工成本抬升下，煤化工比价优势扩大，预计带动国内煤制甲醇、 煤制烯烃需求明显增长；国内方面，节前产区供给收缩，终端日耗虽有所下降， 港口库存仍超预期去化，节后供需均缓慢恢复，后续产能核减和下游复工复产节 奏加快，低库存对煤价支撑作用亦较强。海内外双重催化下，煤 ...

2、地产：（1）新房：截至 2 月 27 日（正月十一），30 城新房（滚动 7 天求 和）成交面积 76.96 万平方米，同比+48.1%。（2）二手房：截至 2 月 27 日 （正月十一），二手房成交（滚动 7 天求和）6.13 万平方米，同比+31.5%，也 强于往年同期。 消费相关：节后出行热度继续升温，国际油价微涨 1、出行：复工影响下，29 城地铁客运量环比走高。上周四至本周三，29 城 地铁客运量 232.5 万人次，环比+24.8%。百度迁徙指数看截至 2 月 27 日（正 月十一）出行同比+28.9%仍保持高位。 证券研究报 告 【债券周报】 节后投资复工偏快 ——每周高频跟踪 20260228 （1）动力煤：煤价继续上涨。本周工业需求回暖，下游补库意愿回升，非 电行业补库需求释放，电煤消费较节前回升，下游主动补库存。 （2）螺纹钢：价格持稳，库存上行。螺纹钢（HRB400 20mm）现货价格持 稳，春节后螺纹表需低迷、产量低位，库存持续累积。 （3）沥青：开工率低于节前。本周沥青装置开工率环比节前一周-0.3pct 至 21.4%，节后复工偏慢。 2、原油：截至 2 月 27 日，布伦特原 ...