编者按 辞蛇岁，迎马年。在2026年新春佳节之际，期货日报邀请各大机构相关专家，盘点当前大类资产市场态 势，掘金新一年核心配置机会与优质投资赛道。 马年首个交易日即将到来，新的一年该布局哪些板块，如何做好资产配置才能稳健获利？国投期货首席 宏观分析师李而实结合过去几年市场的行情脉络，针对马年资产配置逻辑、潜力板块及操作逻辑给出了 建议。 国内市场进入再通胀交易阶段 李而实表示，2024年以来，国内市场进入了再通胀交易阶段。 "去年国内宏观政策发力叠加美联储货币政策转向，使市场重估大中华区大类资产的价值。对大类资产 而言，必然是一个国债交易难度增加、股票市场表现强势、商品再通胀交易逻辑扩散的过程。"在李而 实看来，过去几年商品市场各板块表现分化，并未出现普涨行情。在宏观流动性充裕的背景下，商品市 场上金属板块表现强势，股票市场上科技板块领涨。 李而实认为，进入马年之后，市场有两个方向相对比较明确：一是随着人民币升值趋势确立，国内资产 偏积极的环境仍然存在；二是随着金融属性偏强的品种价格大幅上涨，市场结构大概率会进入一个再平 衡的过程，即"盈利交易兴起，再通胀交易扩散"。 "从股票市场来看，在科技板块和以有色金属 ...

Group 1: Domestic High-Frequency Data - Retail and catering sales showed a significant increase, with average daily sales during the first four days of the Spring Festival rising by 8.6% compared to the same period in 2025, up from a 5.4% increase in the previous year [2][10] - Travel activity also increased, with an average daily passenger volume of 30.99 million during the Spring Festival, representing a 10.9% increase from 2025. Railway travel increased by 13.3% to 11.44 million, while civil aviation travel rose by 8.9% to 2.46 million [2][10] - Box office revenue for the Spring Festival was low, with an estimated total of around 6 billion yuan, which is below the levels of the past three years and similar to 2022 [2][10] - Real estate transactions were low during the Spring Festival, with average daily sales in 30 major cities at seasonal lows, making the data less relevant for broader analysis [2][10] Group 2: Overseas Macro Environment - The U.S. is experiencing increased uncertainty regarding tariffs due to internal conflicts between judicial and executive branches, with a recent Supreme Court ruling declaring many tariffs imposed by the previous administration as legally invalid [3][25] - Economic growth in the U.S. has slowed, with Q4 GDP rising by only 1.4%, significantly lower than the 4.4% growth in Q3, influenced by government shutdowns and reduced consumer spending [4][25] - Inflation pressures remain, with the core PCE price index rising to 3.0% year-on-year in December 2025, up from 2.8%, which may complicate future interest rate decisions by the Federal Reserve [4][25] Group 3: Global Capital Markets - Most global stock indices rose during the Spring Festival, with the South Korean market leading with a 3.09% increase. The U.S. stock market also saw slight gains, with the Nasdaq up 1.51% and the S&P 500 up 1.07% [5][34] - Oil prices increased by 5.7% due to geopolitical tensions, while gold and silver prices recovered, with silver rising by 5.6% and gold by 0.7% during the same period [5][40] - Bond yields in major economies mostly declined, with the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield slightly rising to 4.08%, while other regions like Germany and France saw decreases in long-term bond yields [5][38] Group 4: Post-Festival Bond Market Outlook - The bond market is expected to continue strengthening post-festival, supported by a weak economic backdrop and low financing demand, which provides overall protection for the bond market [6][43] - Seasonal declines in funding demand and limited impact from central bank liquidity withdrawal are anticipated, maintaining a loose monetary environment [6][43] - The low positions of trading institutions and the continued allocation by investment institutions driven by lower costs and declining yields from other assets are expected to stabilize the market [6][43]

Group 1: U.S. Trade Policy and Economic Impact - The U.S. Supreme Court ruled on February 20 that tariffs imposed by the President under the Emergency Economic Powers Act exceeded his authority, with a 6-3 vote against these measures, necessitating a shift in trade strategy from the White House [1] - Following the ruling, the White House signed a new executive order to impose additional tariffs on global imports, referencing the Trade Act of 1974, with initial rates later mentioned at higher levels to maintain trade balance [1] - The U.S. Department of Commerce reported that economic growth for Q4 2025 was below previous expectations, with significant job losses in manufacturing, indicating pressure from trade policy adjustments and rising corporate costs [3] Group 2: Japan's Defense and Economic Strategy - Japan's government approved a record-high defense budget for FY2026, focusing on missile development and modernization of military capabilities to address regional security challenges [3][6] - As part of a trade agreement, Japan committed to injecting substantial funds into strategic industries in the U.S. by 2029, with initial projects selected in energy infrastructure and critical minerals [5] - The agreement was a result of negotiations where Japan agreed to lower automotive tariffs in exchange for investment opportunities, although Japan now faces risks of tariff reinstatement following the U.S. court ruling [5] Group 3: U.S.-China Agricultural Trade Relations - The White House announced a state visit to China from March 31 to April 2, aimed at discussing agricultural trade cooperation, particularly for U.S. exports like soybeans and corn, in response to domestic agricultural product inventory issues [3][5] - The visit is expected to focus on collaboration opportunities to avoid escalating trade tensions, emphasizing dialogue to resolve differences and promote mutually beneficial trade [5]

美国最高法院近日以6比3的投票结果驳回美高层全面关税政策，这一裁决虽在法律层面限制了其贸易霸权手段，却未能完全阻断其通过其他工具施压的路 径。分析指出，美高层仍可利用《贸易法修正案301》及国家安全条款等手段，继续对贸易伙伴实施"讹诈式"谈判，关税争议的核心矛盾并未因司法裁决而 消解。 由 Google 翻译自英语 特朗普:"今天我将签署一项行政命令,根据 第122条款，对全球商品加征10%的关税，这 还不包括我们已经征收的正常关税。 26年2月21日, 2:53 · 27.6万 查看 随着司法挫败浮出水面，美高层对欧盟的报复性反制已箭在弦上。分析预测，其可能通过提高汽车、农产品等关键领域关税，或以能源供应为筹码施压，甚 至在数字贸易规则、气候合作等议题上设置障碍。欧盟成员国近期已就能源危机与通胀压力发出预警，若美高层采取极端措施，欧洲经济或将面临新一轮冲 击，部分国家甚至可能陷入衰退风险。 Aaron Rupar ® @atrupar 订阅 Trump: "Today I will sign an order to impose a 10% global tariff under Section 122, ...

20日美股大型科技股与存储芯片股反弹 当地时间周五上午，美国最高法院公布裁决，认定美国《国际紧急经济权力法》没有授权总统征收大规 模关税，意味着特朗普政府关税政策受到重大挫折。美国商务部同一天公布的初步数据显示，美国2025 年第四季度经济增速为1.4%，显著低于市场预期的2.8%；美国2025年经济增速为2.2%，低于2024年的 2.8%。尽管经济数据利空，但投资者看好关税壁垒可能被消除对美国企业盈利状况的提振，美国三大 股指周五集体收涨。截至收盘，道指涨0.47%，标普500指数涨0.69%，纳指涨0.90%。 本周，美股从上周的AI股和软件股抛售潮中反弹，纽约股市三大股指全部累计上涨。其中，道指涨 0.25%，标普500指数上涨1.07%，纳指上涨1.51%。 20日国际金价银价显著上涨 纽约白银期价本周涨超5.6% 美国最高法院的裁决可能迫使联邦政府进一步举债，引发投资者对美债信用的担忧，进而增持黄金以对 冲风险。此外，周五的最新数据显示，美国去年12月核心个人消费支出（PCE）价格指数同比上涨 3.0%，涨幅高出市场预期。通胀压力反弹叠加经济增长放缓，引发市场对美国经济陷入滞胀的担忧， 黄金的"抗 ...

根据协议，美方将对印尼维持19%的互惠关税税率，但部分特定产品将适用零关税。 数据显示，2025年美国对印尼的商品贸易逆差为237亿美元。白宫称，该协议将在未来数周内完成双方 各自的国内程序后正式生效。 (文章来源：央视新闻客户端) 当地时间2月19日，白宫宣布，特朗普政府已与印度尼西亚正式敲定一项互惠贸易协议，旨在扩大美国 商品市场准入，涉及制造业、农业及数字经济等领域。美国总统特朗普与印尼总统普拉博沃·苏比延多 当天签署文件，确认双方将推进落实相关安排。 根据白宫披露的内容，印尼将取消对超过99%美国出口产品的关税壁垒。双方还确认达成约330亿美元 的商业合作安排，包括约150亿美元的美国能源采购、约135亿美元的航空及相关产品采购，以及超过45 亿美元的美国农产品采购。 ...

经过近一年谈判，印尼与美国于周四敲定一项贸易协议。美国将对这个东南亚最大经济体出口商品的关 税从 32% 降至 19%。 美国总统特朗普去年对贸易伙伴征收对等关税，称此举旨在抵消非关税壁垒，这些壁垒使美国出口处于 不利地位。 以下是该协议最核心的要点： 关税减免与豁免 印尼经济统筹部长艾尔朗加・哈尔塔托表示，超过 1800 种印尼输美商品（包括棕榈油、咖啡、可可） 将获免关税待遇。 白宫称，印尼将取消对99% 以上美国输印尼产品的关税壁垒，双方还就消除非关税壁垒达成一致。 关键矿产 数字贸易 印尼将取消对美出口工业商品（含关键矿产）的限制，并加强与美国企业在稀土等矿产的开采、加工及 下游生产领域的合作。 印尼将防止外资加工设施产能过剩，确保外资工业园区与加工设施在税收、法律、配额及监管要求上与 其他企业同等待遇。 采购与投资 印尼将安排从美国进口商品与服务，意向总金额最高达 384 亿美元，其中包括约 150 亿美元美国能源商 品、45 亿美元美国农产品（棉花、小麦、大豆等）。 印尼须每年最低进口特定农产品，包括牛肉、部分水果、大米及乙醇。 印尼将推动至少100 亿美元对美直接投资，投向工程、采购、建设项目及 ...

数据显示，2025年美国对印尼的商品贸易逆差为237亿美元。白宫称，该协议将在未来数周内完成双方 各自的国内程序后正式生效。（央视记者 刘骁骞） 责编:王时丹 | 审核:李震 | 监审:古筝 （来源：央视新闻客户端） 当地时间2月19日，白宫宣布，特朗普政府已与印度尼西亚正式敲定一项互惠贸易协议，旨在扩大美国 商品市场准入，涉及制造业、农业及数字经济等领域。美国总统特朗普与印尼总统普拉博沃·苏比延多 当天签署文件，确认双方将推进落实相关安排。 根据白宫披露的内容，印尼将取消对超过99%美国出口产品的关税壁垒。双方还确认达成约330亿美元 的商业合作安排，包括约150亿美元的美国能源采购、约135亿美元的航空及相关产品采购，以及超过45 亿美元的美国农产品采购。 根据协议，美方将对印尼维持19%的互惠关税税率，但部分特定产品将适用零关税。 ...

Core Insights - Canada is projected to experience a significant trade deficit of 31.3 billion CAD in 2025, marking the largest deficit since 2020 and the third consecutive year of trade deficits [1] Export Summary - In 2025, Canada's total exports are expected to decline by 0.2%, with seven out of eleven major product categories experiencing a decrease. The most significant drop is seen in energy products due to falling prices [1] - Strong growth in precious metal exports partially offsets the decline in other product categories. Excluding precious metals, the annual export decline reaches 3% [1] Import Summary - Canada's total imports are anticipated to increase by 2.8% in 2025, driven primarily by growth in metal ores and non-metallic minerals, electronic and electrical equipment and parts, as well as consumer goods [1] Trade Dependency on the U.S. - The trade dependency on the U.S. is expected to decrease in 2025, with exports to the U.S. declining by 5.8% and imports decreasing by 2.9%. The trade surplus with the U.S. narrows from 101.3 billion CAD in 2024 to 81.6 billion CAD [1] Trade with Non-U.S. Partners - In contrast, trade with non-U.S. partners shows strong performance, with exports increasing by 17.2% and imports rising by 12.4% in 2025 [1]

大年初三，终于不用喝酒了！说几句掏心窝的观点。 整个春节，AI概念又火了，明确自己观点，我依旧看好人工智能是主线，要不然也不会重新布局恒科，节前连恒医都又建仓了，它们都是人工智能逻辑， 科技目前只有一条主线，就是人工智能，就像前几年是新能源。 1、白酒，大多数人不要参与。 不过，地产消费能源这些，可能会在今年反转，后面还有2~3年的行情。说白了，投资的成长性是股价的位置，并不是业绩，因为业绩好的科技公司已经10 倍了…… 问问自己，如果你也年少有为，你想不想买豪车载着心爱的姑娘兜风。大年初二，你想不想开着豪车，提着茅台、拉菲、和天下等去岳父母家拜年。 快乐消费，情绪消费有时候比物质的本身更重要，不要说面子，人赚钱是为了什么，如果只是满足温饱的生存，刚需，性价比，你不用那么拼！ 2、消费，本来就是没办法交流的事情。 消费股的逻辑其实就是消费的逻辑，你的认知与消费能力，决定你的参与的逻辑，我不觉得普通散户远离地产消费能源这些是错，毕竟科技股的机会更多， 股票的数量更多。 无论什么筹码都是有人赚有人赔，你觉得没有行情的白酒地产，去年也有朋友在里面赚了几十点，别人做自己擅长的筹码，其他并不关心。你觉得你的工作 不行， ...