Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is the announcement of control changes in two A-share listed companies, Luoping Zinc & Electricity and *ST Dongjing, leading to their stock suspension starting May 28 [1][10] - Luoping Zinc & Electricity's controlling shareholder plans to transfer 72.43 million shares (22.396% of total shares) to Qujing Development Investment Group, which will change the actual controller from the county-level state-owned assets supervision to the city-level [7][13] - The company has faced significant operational challenges, with a projected revenue decline of 18% to 1.26 billion yuan in 2024 and a net loss of 78.85 million yuan [7][9] Group 2 - The involvement of city-level state-owned assets may provide financial support, debt restructuring, or resource injection to improve the company's operations, especially in the context of zinc price fluctuations and insufficient self-sufficiency [9] - *ST Dongjing is negotiating control transfer with equity investment institutions, with the new actual controller expected to hold 25%-29.99% of shares, indicating potential asset restructuring or business transformation [10][14] - The company reported a 16.71% revenue increase in the first quarter but still incurred a loss of 14.72 million yuan, facing delisting risk due to consecutive losses [10][14] Group 3 - Luoping Zinc & Electricity has diversified into agriculture, investing 260 million yuan in a rapeseed industry chain project, aiming to create a new profit growth point [12] - The dual-track model of "metals + agriculture" is seen as unique among listed companies, leveraging local resource advantages while mitigating cyclical industry risks [12] - The current control changes reflect broader trends in the capital market, with local state-owned assets optimizing resource allocation through cross-level integration [13][14]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral [5] - Arbitrage: Inter - period positive spread [5] 2. Report's Core View - After maintenance disturbances, zinc prices rose and then fell. The current strong consumption supports zinc prices to fluctuate at a high level, but consumption may face challenges in June, and there is a possibility of a month - on - month decline in consumption after June. Attention should be paid to inventory changes [1][4] 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs Important Data - **Spot**: LME zinc spot premium is -$21.55/ton. SMM Shanghai zinc spot price rose by 160 yuan/ton to 22,730 yuan/ton, and its premium rose by 55 yuan/ton to 445 yuan/ton. SMM Guangdong zinc spot price rose by 140 yuan/ton to 22,690 yuan/ton, and its premium rose by 35 yuan/ton to 405 yuan/ton. SMM Tianjin zinc spot price rose by 160 yuan/ton to 22,730 yuan/ton, and its premium rose by 55 yuan/ton to 445 yuan/ton [2] - **Futures**: On May 27, 2025, the main SHFE zinc contract opened at 22,185 yuan/ton and closed at 22,330 yuan/ton, up 135 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 343,177 lots, an increase of 200,438 lots from the previous trading day. The open interest was 121,568 lots, an increase of 3,048 lots from the previous trading day. The intraday price fluctuated, with a high of 22,695 yuan/ton and a low of 22,175 yuan/ton [2] - **Inventory**: As of May 26, 2025, the total inventory of SMM seven - region zinc ingots was 78,800 tons, a decrease of 5,000 tons from the same period last week. As of May 27, 2025, LME zinc inventory was 151,150 tons, a decrease of 2,350 tons from the previous trading day [3] Market Analysis - In the spot market, traders' supplies were tight, and concerns about the maintenance of smelters in South China pushed up the spot premium. However, downstream buyers were reluctant to buy at high prices, and the purchase enthusiasm was poor due to the supplement of imported supplies. A zinc smelter in South China extended its maintenance, causing zinc prices to fluctuate and rise, but the rise lacked sustainable momentum, and supply pressure pushed zinc prices back into the oscillation range [4] - Overseas mine production in Q1 was lower than expected, but TC will continue to rise in June. Even at the current TC price, smelting is still profitable, and smelting enthusiasm remains high, so supply pressure persists. Domestic smelters have sufficient raw material inventories, and there is no condition for a short - term TC reduction [4]

Group 1 - China Merchants Industry announced the termination of the restructuring and spin-off of its subsidiaries, China Merchants Jinling and China Merchants Roll-on Roll-off, due to a lack of consensus on transaction terms and changes in market conditions [2] - Sichuan Road and Bridge is planning a related party transaction to acquire 100% equity and debt rights of Chengdu New Road and Bridge Machinery Co., which is expected to be a related party transaction but not a major asset restructuring [2] - Guotai Junan Securities plans to increase its capital by 1.5 billion yuan to Guotai Junan Futures Co., Ltd. to supplement its net capital [5] Group 2 - Innovation New Materials intends to register and issue short-term financing bonds not exceeding 500 million yuan and medium-term notes not exceeding 1.5 billion yuan to enhance liquidity management [3] - Gree Electric's wholly-owned subsidiary plans to sell 5.9088% equity of Winshang Technology for 62.6333 million yuan, which will improve asset liquidity and cash flow [4] - Yapu Co. plans to purchase approximately 54.5% of Winshang Technology for about 578 million yuan to accelerate its strategic development in key automotive components [6] Group 3 - Deep Highway announced that Yunshan Capital increased its holdings in the company's H-shares by 10.81 million shares, bringing its total shareholding to 254 million shares, accounting for 10% of the total share capital [7] - Aichuang Data plans to procure servers worth up to 4 billion yuan to provide computing power leasing services [8] - Luoping Zinc Electric is transferring 22.4% of its shares to Qujing Development Investment Group, with trading suspension starting from May 28 due to control change planning [9] Group 4 - Zhongke Haixun signed a contract for an information processing subsystem procurement project worth 163 million yuan [10] - Enhua Pharmaceutical's associate company Jiangsu Haoxin Qing plans to go public overseas to expand financing channels and is establishing a red-chip structure [11] - Yunnan Energy Investment has been awarded the development rights for three wind farm projects, including the Fuyuan Nanchong Wind Farm [13]

Core Viewpoint - The zinc market has been experiencing low-level fluctuations for nearly two months, with a focus on whether the supply from mines can meet demand in the future [2][7]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - Since early April, zinc has faced widespread selling due to escalating international trade tensions, remaining below 22,500 points [2]. - Recent maintenance at zinc smelting plants has been higher than usual, despite stable processing fees for zinc ore [3][4]. - A significant zinc smelting plant in southern China extended its maintenance period, impacting production by an estimated 20,000 to 40,000 tons, which led to a price increase [3]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Factors - The decline in social zinc inventory continues, although the demand from downstream sectors remains resilient [5]. - The real estate sector's weakness has slowed the destocking of galvanized inventory, with new construction area starting in the first four months of 2025 down 23.8% year-on-year [5]. - Domestic zinc imports have reached historical highs, contributing to a stable supply environment for smelting plants [7][8]. Group 3: Future Outlook - The mid-term outlook suggests increasing pressure on zinc supply due to the resumption of production at smelting plants and the seasonal slowdown in demand [7]. - Analysts predict that the zinc market may experience a shift towards a bearish trend as supply begins to outpace demand, with expectations of inventory accumulation starting in mid-June [7][8]. - The processing fees for zinc ore are expected to remain strong in the third quarter due to high demand, despite an anticipated oversupply of zinc ingots [8].

Group 1 - The controlling shareholder of Luoping Zinc & Electricity is planning to transfer control of the company to a municipal state-owned asset management entity, which would elevate the control from county-level to city-level [1] - The transfer involves the agreement to transfer 72.4276 million shares, accounting for 22.3960% of the total share capital, to Qujing Development Investment Group [1] - The stock of Luoping Zinc & Electricity will be suspended from trading starting May 28, with an expected suspension period of no more than two trading days [1] Group 2 - Luoping Zinc & Electricity has faced operational challenges in recent years due to environmental pollution and litigation issues, resulting in a lack of performance highlights [2] - In Q1 2025, the company reported a revenue of 185 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 53.55%, and a loss of 45.0088 million yuan compared to a loss of 29.526 million yuan in the same period last year [2] - The company aims to produce 80,000 tons of zinc ingots and achieve a revenue of 1.918 billion yuan in 2025 [2] Group 3 - In the 2024 annual performance meeting, the company indicated a significant improvement in profitability, with a gross margin turning positive, reflecting effective cost control and production efficiency [2] - The net cash flow from operating activities for 2024 was 103 million yuan, indicating sustained net inflow from operations [2] - The zinc industry is characterized by "tight supply, weak recovery, and high volatility," with long-term trends pointing towards green transformation and new technology applications reshaping the industry landscape [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the zinc industry is weak, with a price range of 21,500 - 22,500 yuan/ton [3] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The logic of marginal increase in mine supply is gradually being realized, refinery and port zinc concentrate inventories are relatively abundant, and after some refineries finish maintenance in May, the probability of resuming production is high. After the increase in zinc supply pressure, the surplus logic may become more apparent [5] - The consumption side has entered the traditional off - season, and the downstream restocking space is limited. After the easing of Sino - US tariff negotiations, there are still orders for rush export, but the intensity of some orders is not as strong as in previous rounds, and the boosting effect is limited. Terminal orders are gradually weakening, the production rhythm of downstream die - casting zinc and other sectors has slowed down, and the procurement space for spot is limited, mainly for rigid demand procurement, with weak spot trading during the week. Next week, approaching the Dragon Boat Festival, some enterprises have holiday plans, and the operating rate is expected to decline slightly [5] - The logic that the increase in zinc ore supply is transmitted to the increase in smelting supply pressure still holds. After refineries finish maintenance, production increases, while the demand side enters the off - season, and the support for prices is limited. The profit - loss ratio of holding short positions is quite considerable. In terms of term spreads, there is also convergence pressure on the spreads of near - end contracts, and lending positions can be held. For domestic and foreign zinc prices, long domestic and short foreign positions can continue to be held [5] 3. Summaries Based on Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - **Last week's closing prices and changes**: The closing price of SHFE zinc main contract last week was 22,215 yuan/ton, with a weekly decline of 1.27%; the closing price of LmeS - zinc 3 was 2,712.5 US dollars/ton, with a weekly decline of 0.50%. The closing price of SHFE zinc main contract in the night session yesterday was 22,280 yuan/ton, with a night - session increase of 0.29% [6] - **Futures trading volume and open interest changes**: The trading volume of SHFE zinc main contract last Friday was 127,189 lots, an increase of 9,000 lots compared with the previous week; the open interest was 114,069 lots, an increase of 19,723 lots. The trading volume of LmeS - zinc 3 was 8,813 lots, an increase of 2,800 lots; the open interest was 212,114 lots, a decrease of 12,509 lots [6] - **Spot - futures price difference changes**: The LME zinc cash - to - three - month spread was - 21.55 US dollars/ton last Friday, a decrease of 0.6 US dollars/ton compared with the previous week. The Shanghai 0 zinc spot premium was 200 yuan/ton, a decrease of 25 yuan/ton; the Guangdong 0 zinc spot premium was 355 yuan/ton, an increase of 50 yuan/ton; the Tianjin 0 zinc spot premium was 190 yuan/ton, a decrease of 35 yuan/ton [6] 3.2 Industry Chain Vertical and Horizontal Comparison 3.2.1 Inventory - Zinc ore inventory has rebounded to a high level, while zinc ingot visible inventory is low. Zinc concentrate inventory at refineries is abundant, at a high level in the same period of history, and the zinc ore arrival volume is at a medium level [8][9][36] 3.2.2 Profit - Zinc mine profits are at the forefront of the industry chain, and smelting profits are at a medium level. Mining enterprise profits are stable in the short term, at a historical medium level; smelting profits are stable, also at a historical medium level; galvanized pipe enterprise profits are stable, at a medium - low level in the same period [10][11] 3.2.3 Operating Rate - The zinc concentrate operating rate has rebounded, at a medium level in the same period of history; the refined zinc monthly operating rate has rebounded, at a high level in the same period; the operating rates of downstream galvanizing and die - casting zinc have declined, at a medium - low level in history [12][13] 3.3 Trading Aspects 3.3.1 Spot - The spot premium remains stable at a high level. Overseas premiums are relatively stable, with a slight increase in Antwerp, and the LME CASH - 3M still shows a contango structure [15][17] 3.3.2 Spread - The near - end of SHFE zinc shows a backwardation structure, and the far - end is relatively flat [19] 3.3.3 Inventory - Inventory shows a stabilizing trend at a low level, and the open interest - to - inventory ratio has declined from a high level. LME inventory is mainly concentrated in Singapore, with a short - term decrease and at a medium level in the same period of history. The LME off - warrant inventory is related to CASH - 3M. The bonded area inventory remains stable, and the total global visible zinc inventory has declined [20][28][31] 3.3.4 Futures - The domestic open interest is at a relatively high level in the same period of history [31] 3.4 Supply 3.4.1 Zinc Concentrate - Zinc concentrate imports are at a high level, domestic zinc mine production is at a medium - low level, and the recovery rate of domestic and imported ore processing fees has slowed down. The zinc ore arrival volume is at a medium level, and refinery raw material inventory is abundant, at a high level in the same period of history [35][36] 3.4.2 Refined Zinc - Smelting profits are marginally recovering, smelting output is marginally recovering, and refinery finished product inventory is at a medium - high level in the same period of history. Refined zinc imports are at a historical medium level [37][40] 3.5 Zinc Demand 3.5.1 Downstream Processing Materials - Refined zinc consumption is basically the same as the same period last year. The downstream monthly operating rate has slightly recovered, mostly at a medium - low level in the same period of history [45][48] 3.5.2 Terminal - The real estate market is still at a low level, and the power grid shows structural increments [59] 3.6 Overseas Factors - European electricity prices, natural gas prices, and carbon prices show certain fluctuations, which have an impact on the profitability of European zinc smelters [61]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that zinc prices have started to decline due to the gradual recovery of zinc mine supply, with main contracts falling to 22,000-23,000 yuan/ton, and are expected to stabilize in a weak oscillation pattern within the range of 22,300-23,500 yuan/ton in the short term [1] Group 2 - Zinc mine supply is gradually recovering, with major projects like Antamina, Kipushi, and Tara resuming production. Compared to 2024, zinc mine supply is improving on a month-on-month basis [2] - Domestic zinc smelting profits have improved significantly, with processing fees rising from 1,800 yuan/ton to 3,500 yuan/ton, leading to a shift from losses of 100-200 yuan per ton to profits of 700-800 yuan per ton [2] - Two major domestic zinc smelting projects, Yunnan Copper relocation and Wanyang Zinc Smelting, began production in May, with plans to achieve stable output by June, indicating a potential high output level in the third quarter [3] Group 3 - The export policy remains unclear, with approximately 7% of zinc consumption used for exports of primary products and another 4% through industrial finished products. In April, domestic zinc consumption saw a year-on-year increase of 12%, but in May, many downstream companies reported a wait-and-see attitude from overseas clients [4] - High inventory levels among downstream enterprises after two rounds of concentrated restocking may suppress future consumption, despite the clear upward trend in supply growth and improved profitability in the smelting sector [4]

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 沪锌期货早报-2025年5月15日 大越期货投资咨询部 祝森林 从业资格证号：F3023048 投资咨询证号： Z0013626 联系方式：0575-85225791 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 指标体系 沪锌: 1、基本面：外媒4月16日消息， 世界金属统计局( WBMS )公布的最新数据 报告显示, 2025年2月, 全球锌板产量为112.45万吨,消费量为110.79万吨, 供应过剩1.66万吨。1-2月，全球锌板产量为225.30万吨，消费量为222.75 万吨,供应过剩2.55万吨。2月,全球锌矿产量为98.40万吨。1-2月,全球锌 矿产量为196.398.3万吨；偏空。 2、基差：现货22900，基差+190；偏多。 3、库存：5月14日LME锌库存较上日减少900吨至167050吨，5月14日上期所 锌库存仓单较上日减少0吨至1600吨；偏多。 4、盘面：昨日沪锌震荡上涨走势，收20日均 ...

来源：环球网 5月10日，陕西锌业锌冶炼技术升级改造论证会在西安召开，会议邀请陕西有色金属集团党委委员、副 总经理黄忠良及集团科研技术创新部经理王小翔、企管运营信息部副经理李晓瑜、战略发展改革部副经 理王帅等部门负责人和株洲冶炼集团股份有限公司副总经理刘卫平，云锡文山锌铟冶炼有限公司董事长 朱北平，广西南丹南方公司原总经理陈二云，中金岭南韶关冶炼厂副厂长曾平生，云南驰宏锌锗股份有 限公司副总经理戴兴征等5名一流冶炼企业人员；昆明理工大学冶金与能源工程学院院长郭胜惠，东北 大学冶金学院院长豆志河，西安建筑科技大学冶金工程学院院长李林波，中南大学冶金与环境学院副院 长刘恢，昆明理工大学冶金与能源工程学院教授李兴彬；北京科技大学冶金与生态学院副院长马保中 （线上）等6名冶金行业知名高校教授及中国恩菲工程技术有限公司副总工程师殷书岩，长沙有色冶金 设计研究院有限公司副总工程师陈龙义等2名科研院所专家共同组成"智囊团"对陕西锌业锌冶炼技术升 级改造进行论证，论证会推选株冶集团副总经理刘卫平任论证会专家组组长。会议由公司党委副书记、 总经理徐靖主持。 冶炼工艺及装备升级改造势在必行。陕西锌业前期开展的赤铁矿法除铁炼锌工艺 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Weak". Zinc is expected to fluctuate in the short - term due to weak supply and demand, and trend weakly in the medium - term [3]. 2. Core Viewpoints - With the resumption of mines and the gradual implementation of new and expanded production capacities, the subsequent processing fees still have a trend of rising steadily. Currently, smelter profits have significantly recovered, and the smelting revenue including by - products such as silver and sulfuric acid is close to 1000 yuan/ton. At the same time, smelter raw material and port ore inventories are at relatively high levels, and the smelting start - up rate has generally increased in the second quarter. However, in May, smelters in regions such as Yunnan are under maintenance and shut - down, and the output may decrease by more than 10,000 tons compared with April [7]. - Consumption is gradually transitioning to a slack stage, and the downstream replenishment space is limited. In terms of terminal consumption by sector, power towers are still relatively strong, while other sectors are relatively dull. After the previous sharp price decline, the downstream had a strong willingness to replenish raw materials, which to some extent reduced the subsequent demand space. It is expected that the apparent consumption peaked in April and will show a high - level contraction trend, putting pressure on the upper price limit [7]. - Fundamentally, it shows weak supply and demand. The supply - side production cuts and low social inventories support the near - end price. However, there is still an expectation of increased supply in the far - end, the inflection point of social inventories may come, and it will still operate weakly in the medium - and long - term, and the term spread also faces convergence pressure. For domestic and foreign zinc prices, the profit - loss ratio of domestic - foreign long - short arbitrage is appropriate, but attention should be paid to structural losses [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Market Review - **Price**: The closing price of SHFE Zinc main contract last week was 22,190 yuan/ton, with a weekly decline of 1.11%. The closing price of the night session yesterday was 22,260 yuan/ton, with a night - session increase of 0.32%. The closing price of LmeS - Zinc 3 last week was 2,655.5 US dollars/ton, with a weekly increase of 2.61% [8]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of SHFE Zinc main contract last Friday was 140,017 lots, an increase of 24,655 lots compared with the previous week. The open interest was 119,170 lots, an increase of 13,174 lots. The trading volume of LmeS - Zinc 3 last Friday was 6,713 lots, an increase of 1,517 lots compared with the previous week. The open interest was 213,170 lots, an increase of 4,608 lots [8]. - **Basis**: The LME zinc premium last Friday was - 26.13 US dollars/ton, an increase of 10.96 US dollars/ton compared with the previous week. The SHFE zinc basis showed different changes in different regions [8]. - **Inventory**: The SHFE zinc warrant inventory last week was 1,903 tons, a decrease of 451 tons compared with the previous week. The total SHFE zinc inventory was 47,102 tons, a decrease of 1,375 tons. The LME zinc inventory was 170,325 tons, a decrease of 3,475 tons. The bonded - area inventory was 7,600 tons, a decrease of 1,200 tons. The social inventory was 83,300 tons, an increase of 6,300 tons [8]. 3.2. Industry Chain Vertical and Horizontal Comparison - **Inventory**: Zinc ore inventory has risen to a high level, while zinc ingot visible inventory is low. The port inventory of imported zinc ore in Lianyungang and smelter raw material inventory are at relatively high levels, while the seven - region inventory and smelter finished - product inventory are relatively low [10][11]. - **Profit**: Zinc ore profit is at the forefront of the industry chain, and smelting profit is at a medium - high level. Mining enterprise profit is stable in the short - term and at a historical medium level. Smelting profit has recovered and is at a historical medium level. The profit of galvanized pipe enterprises is stable and at a medium - low level in the same period [12][13]. - **Start - up Rate**: The smelting start - up rate has recovered to a high level, while the downstream start - up rate is at a historically low level. The zinc concentrate start - up rate has rebounded and is at a historical medium level in the same period. The refined zinc monthly start - up rate has rebounded and is at a high level in the same period. The start - up rates of downstream galvanizing and die - casting zinc have decreased and are at a historically low level [14][15]. 3.3. Trading Aspect - **Spot**: The spot premium has declined from a high level. Overseas premiums are relatively stable, with a slight increase in Antwerp, and the LME CASH - 3M still shows a C structure [17][19]. - **Spread**: The near - end of SHFE Zinc shows a B structure, while the far - end is relatively flat [21]. - **Inventory**: The inventory shows a downward trend, and the open - interest - to - inventory ratio is relatively high. The LME inventory is mainly concentrated in Singapore. The total LME inventory has decreased in the short - term and is at a historical medium level in the same period. The global zinc visible inventory has decreased [25][32][35]. - **Futures**: The domestic open interest is at a relatively high level in the same historical period [36]. 3.4. Supply - **Zinc Concentrate**: Zinc concentrate imports are at a high level, domestic zinc ore production is at a medium - low level, and the processing fees of domestic and imported ores have rebounded. The ore arrival volume is at a high level, and smelter raw material inventory is abundant and at a historical high level in the same period [39][40]. - **Refined Zinc**: Smelting profit has marginally recovered, and smelting output has marginally recovered. Refined zinc imports are at a historical medium level [41][44]. 3.5. Zinc Demand - **Consumption**: Refined zinc consumption is basically the same as the same period last year [49]. - **Downstream**: The downstream monthly start - up rate has slightly recovered, and most are at a medium - low level in the same historical period. The downstream raw material inventory and finished - product inventory show different trends in different sectors [50][52]. - **Terminal**: The real estate market is still at a low level, while the power grid shows structural increments [61]. 3.6. Overseas Factors - In Europe, electricity prices, natural gas prices, and carbon prices show different trends, and the profitability of zinc smelters in different countries also varies [63].