【导读】2月金股最新名单出炉，配置坚守"科技+有色"双主线 中国基金报记者舍梨 开年首月券商金股交出了一份亮眼成绩单。Wind数据显示，1月份券商共推荐307只金股，其中207只个 股当月实现股价上涨，占比近七成。其中，单只金股最高涨幅接近100%。 展望2月行情，券商普遍认为，春季行情趋势仍将延续，春节之前市场可能震荡，但牛市驱动力未变， 配置层面依旧坚守"科技成长 + 周期价值"双主线思路。 | 序号 | 金股组合名称 | 1月收益 | | --- | --- | --- | | 1 | 申万月度金股 | 16. 19% | | 2 | 中邮月度金股 | 15. 16% | | 3 | 平安月度金股 | 14. 36% | | ব | 华源月度金股 | 13. 65% | | 5 | 西南月度金股 | 13. 26% | | 6 | 华龙月度金股 | 12. 62% | | 7 | 东北月度金股 | 12. 53% | | 8 | 国元月度金股 | 11. 95% | | 9 | 国海月度金股 | 11. 14% | | 10 | 中航月度金股 | 10. 55% | | 11 | 太证月度金股 | 10 ...

各位朋友，我是帮主。春节越来越近，咱们A股市场一个老话题又热了起来——"春节红包行情"。数据 很明确，统计显示，春节前最后10个交易日，上证指数上涨的概率超过75%，平均涨幅能有1.9%。这听 起来像是个不错的"节日彩头"，对吧？但先别急着高兴，咱们得往深里看一层：这红包，它到底会塞在 谁的口袋里？是那些稳如泰山的银行、保险这些"老登股"，还是那些代表AI、电子的"小登股"？今天， 咱们就用中长线的视角，来拆解一下这场春节前的"风格博弈"。 我的看法是，对于中长线投资者来说，这未必是一个非此即彼的选择题，而可以是一个动态的配置组 合。这里分享一个我观察市场多年的心得：在类似春节前这种存在季节性积极窗口、但宏观方向又不是 很明朗的阶段，市场风格往往容易在"价值"和"成长"之间摇摆。资金的短期偏好，可能会被一些事件或 情绪左右。比如，如果市场对经济复苏的预期突然增强，"老登股"可能短期更受青睐；但如果AI领域又 传出重大突破，资金可能又会瞬间涌向"小登股"。 最后，留给大家一个问题观察：根据历史，非银金融、汽车这些板块在春节前表现也相对强势。你认 为，在今年"促进消费"和"活跃资本市场"的大背景下，这些板块的"日 ...

Domestic Market Overview - The domestic market showed a mixed performance with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 4117.95 points, down 0.96%, and the Shenzhen Component Index at 14205.89 points, down 0.66%. The STAR 50 Index rose by 0.12%, while the ChiNext Index increased by 1.27%. The total trading volume of the A-share market reached 286.24 billion yuan, an increase from the previous day [1][5][7] - Among the 30 sectors tracked by CITIC, 6 sectors saw gains, with telecommunications, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery, as well as electronics leading the increases. Conversely, non-ferrous metals, steel, and food and beverage sectors experienced significant declines [1][5][7] Overseas Market Overview - The three major U.S. stock indices experienced slight declines, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average falling by 0.36%, the S&P 500 down by 0.43%, and the Nasdaq Composite decreasing by 0.94%. The index tracking the seven major U.S. tech companies also dropped by 0.32% [2][5] Key News Highlights - The Central Political Bureau of the Communist Party of China conducted a collective study on forward-looking layouts and the development of future industries, with President Xi Jinping delivering an important speech emphasizing the significance of nurturing future industries for national development [9][10] - An important article by Xi Jinping titled "Walking the Path of Financial Development with Chinese Characteristics and Building a Financial Power" will be published in the upcoming issue of "Qiushi" magazine, outlining the principles for developing a robust financial system [13][14] - The personal income tax threshold for individual taxpayers has been raised to 1000 yuan per transaction, effective this year [17][18] - British Prime Minister Keir Starmer's visit to China resulted in 12 cooperation agreements, marking a significant step in UK-China relations [19] Driving Factors - The upcoming publication of Xi Jinping's article is expected to influence market sentiment, as it outlines the strategic direction for China's financial development and emphasizes the importance of a strong financial system [8][14] - The A-share market saw 2453 stocks rise, 2896 decline, and 113 remain unchanged, indicating a volatile trading environment influenced by international market fluctuations [8]

Index Adjustment - The North Exchange 50 Index will undergo its first adjustment of 2026 on March 16, with three companies expected to be added: Tiangong Co., Ltd., Guangxin Technology, and Jikang Technology[2][14] - The adjustment will remove companies that rank low based on average daily market capitalization, with no substantial impact on the operations of the companies being removed[2][18] Index Fund Growth - The scale of North Exchange 50 index funds has seen significant growth from 2.94 billion CNY in 2022 to 14.165 billion CNY by January 31, 2026[2][18] - The number of products tracking the North Exchange 50 index increased from 16 in 2022 to 79 by the end of January 2026[2][18] Market Performance - The North Exchange 50 Index closed at 1,531.55 points, down 3.59% from the previous week, with a price-to-earnings ratio (PETTM) of 64.12X[2][32] - The overall PE ratio for North Exchange A-shares decreased to 47.58X, while the ChiNext and STAR Market also saw declines in their PE ratios[2][23][32] Liquidity and Trading Activity - The average daily trading volume for North Exchange A-shares was 29.948 billion CNY, reflecting an increase of 11.62% week-over-week[2][26] - The average turnover rate for North Exchange A-shares was 5.88%, up by 0.44 percentage points[2][26] Valuation Trends - As of January 31, 2026, 44.86% of North Exchange companies had a PETTM exceeding 45X, indicating a high valuation environment[2][37] - The valuation gap between North Exchange and other markets is widening, suggesting a relative valuation advantage for North Exchange stocks[2][47]

Group 1: Market Performance - In January, the Wind All A index rose significantly with a monthly increase of 5.83% and an average daily trading volume of 3.05 trillion yuan, although it fell by 1.59% in the last week [3] - The CSI 1000 index increased by 8.68%, the CSI 500 by 12.12%, the CSI 300 by 1.65%, and the SSE 50 by 1.17%, driven mainly by the electronics and non-ferrous metals sectors, while the banking sector dragged down the overall index [3] - Domestic investor sentiment was high, with a monthly increase in financing balance of 197.1 billion yuan, while the issuance of stock funds decreased to 20 billion yuan, but mixed funds surged to 46.9 billion yuan, significantly above the monthly average of 13.4 billion yuan in 2025 [3][4] Group 2: Policy Expectations - The current valuation levels of A-share hot topics are high, with the dynamic PE of the CSI 500 index exceeding two standard deviations above the past five years [4] - The China Securities Regulatory Commission emphasized the need for a stable market, discouraging excessive speculation and market manipulation, indicating a preference for a "slow bull" market rather than a "crazy bull" [4][5] - The Shanghai and Shenzhen stock exchanges have introduced measures to increase the minimum margin ratio for financing purchases of stocks [4] Group 3: Bond Market Dynamics - In January, the bond market experienced a decline followed by a recovery, with the People's Bank of China (PBOC) significantly increasing the net injection of Medium-term Lending Facility (MLF) [6][7] - As of January 30, the yields for 2-year, 5-year, 10-year, and 30-year government bonds were 1.38%, 1.58%, 1.81%, and 2.29% respectively, with varying changes from the previous month [6] - The issuance of government bonds in January was 2.08 trillion yuan, with a net issuance of 1.181 trillion yuan, including 426.7 billion yuan of central government bonds and 754.3 billion yuan of local government bonds [8] Group 4: Manufacturing and Economic Indicators - The official manufacturing PMI for January was 49.3, below the expected 50.1, indicating a contraction in the manufacturing sector [9][10] - The decline in PMI is attributed to seasonal factors and insufficient market demand, with labor-intensive industries experiencing a drop in exports and early returns of workers for the Spring Festival [10] - The price indices for raw materials and factory output both increased, with the purchasing price index at 56.1 and the factory price index at 50.6, indicating potential pressure on corporate profits [11][12] Group 5: Precious Metals Market - In January, gold prices rose by 13.01% to 4,880.034 USD/oz, while silver surged by 19.12% to 85.259 USD/oz, with both metals experiencing extreme volatility [25][26] - The market dynamics were influenced by geopolitical tensions, concerns over the US dollar's credibility, and expectations of continued loose monetary policy from the Federal Reserve [25][26] - The sharp adjustment on January 30 was seen as a forced liquidation of overbought positions, but the long-term drivers for precious metals remain intact [26][27]

Summary of Conference Call Records Industry and Company Involved - The discussion primarily revolves around the **AI computing power industry**, specifically focusing on **Industrial Fulian** and **Apple** as key players in the market. Core Points and Arguments 1. **Agent Demand and Market Dynamics** - The introduction of local running modes for agents, such as MultiBot, has sparked significant interest in the market, potentially accelerating the release of more powerful agent functionalities by major companies, which will increase demand for computing resources and promote growth in the edge computing and storage markets [1][3] 2. **Local Storage and Edge Computing** - MultiBot architecture emphasizes local data storage, providing zero-latency access and data control advantages, which will lead to increased demand for local storage solutions. The future may see widespread adoption of personal edge servers, significantly boosting independent incremental demand [1][4] 3. **Domestic Computing Power Development** - Domestic computing power currently lags behind international capabilities by approximately six months. However, it is expected to gradually replace foreign computing power in the local market over the long term. Performance is anticipated to be released in 2026 as production capacity issues are resolved [1][5][6] 4. **Industrial Fulian's Performance Forecast** - Industrial Fulian's 2025 performance forecast exceeds expectations, benefiting from the ramp-up of GB200 and 300 products and growth in VeriSilicon's business. The company is positioned to benefit from the AI trend as a key component of the overseas computing power chain [1][8] 5. **Apple's Financial Performance** - Apple's latest financial results surpassed expectations, driven by strong iPhone 17 sales and record revenue in Greater China. The anticipated product innovations in 2026, including new AirPods and foldable screens, are expected to contribute to growth in non-AI server business [2][9][12] 6. **AI Data Center Business Highlights** - Industrial Fulian's AI data center business, including high-speed switches and AI server assembly, saw significant revenue growth, with 800G and above high-speed switch revenue increasing over 4.5 times year-on-year. The complexity of assembly is increasing, leading to higher value per cabinet and profit margins [2][10] 7. **Global Competitive Position** - Industrial Fulian holds a unique position as the only NV chain alloy ODM assembly supplier, with a strong and stable role in the overseas computing power chain, facing no immediate threats from technological iterations [2][11] 8. **Optical Module Industry Insights** - Leading companies in the optical module sector have reported impressive 2025 performance forecasts, indicating strong downstream demand and growth in high-speed optical module shipments. Investors are advised to focus on the long-term value of leading companies in this sector [2][16] 9. **Future Trends in Optical Communication** - The optical communication industry is expected to see high downstream demand and investment in AI, with significant capital expenditures projected from major companies like Meta and Microsoft. The increasing share of silicon photonics technology is anticipated to create additional market opportunities for leading Chinese firms [2][17] 10. **Market Pricing Trends** - The fiber optic market continues to experience price increases due to ongoing supply-demand imbalances, with major companies managing to mitigate profit impacts despite price pressures from operators [2][18] Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content - The anticipated growth in edge computing and local storage solutions is expected to create a dual market for cloud and local storage, rather than a zero-sum scenario [1][4] - The performance of domestic computing power is expected to improve significantly by 2027, with increased demand for packaging and testing services as production returns to China [2][7]

Summary of Conference Call Records Industry and Company Overview - The conference call discusses the current state of the market, focusing on various sectors including technology, resources, and financial services. The analysis highlights the performance of indices such as the CSI 500, CSI 1000, and the Shanghai Composite Index. Key Points and Arguments Market Conditions - The market is experiencing a weakening momentum, necessitating risk control and attention to the 20-day moving average and external factors affecting resource prices [1][3] - In January, the first three weeks saw strong performance from small-cap indices like CSI 500 and CSI 1000, but a cooling trend began in the third week, with large-cap indices like the Shanghai 50 and CSI 300 breaking below the 20-day moving average [2][4] Sector Performance - The non-ferrous metals sector is under pressure, with expectations of a prolonged adjustment phase, potentially lasting six months to a year. The previous year's surge of 97.5% in the non-ferrous index makes it unlikely to replicate such gains this year [5][6] - The technology growth sector is showing signs of weakness, with various industries including defense, electronics, and computing experiencing pullbacks [6][7] Investment Strategy - Investors are advised to maintain a balanced portfolio with a focus on sectors that are currently undervalued and have a high risk awareness. Caution is recommended for technology growth stocks due to potential short-term volatility [3][4] - Recommended sectors for investment include construction materials, electronics, and communication, which are considered to have a favorable risk-reward ratio [2][12] Market Trends and Predictions - The market is expected to enter a phase of strong oscillation leading up to the Spring Festival, with large-cap indices outperforming small-cap growth indices [8][11] - The brokerage sector is anticipated to enter a bullish cycle, with a potential for upward movement despite current low market sentiment [9][10] Risk Factors - The volatility in global resource prices, such as a 35% drop in silver prices, is impacting related assets and indices, particularly those with significant exposure to non-ferrous resources [4][5] - The potential for further declines in small-cap indices if they do not rebound quickly is a concern, indicating a need for careful monitoring of technical indicators [4][8] Future Outlook - The overall market is expected to remain in a state of fluctuation, with opportunities for growth anticipated towards the end of 2026. Investors are encouraged to adjust their portfolios accordingly and focus on sectors with solid fundamentals [11][18] Additional Important Content - The call emphasizes the importance of monitoring technical indicators such as the 20-day and 5-week moving averages to make timely adjustments to investment positions [4][11] - The discussion includes insights on the cyclical nature of certain sectors, particularly those related to commodities and technology, suggesting a strategic approach to investing in these areas [13][15]

进入2月，新一期券商金股名单陆续出炉，主要集中在电子、机械设备、有色金属等行业。个股方面， 海光信息、腾讯控股、中国太保、 紫金矿业 的人气最高。 展望2月，券商普遍认为，春季行情趋势仍在延续，春节之前市场可能震荡，科技成长、顺周期板块受 到青睐。还有券商建议，投资者在春节持股过节。 1月最牛金股大涨近99% 回顾1月金股表现，1月涨幅居前的金股集中在计算机、电子、化工、电力设备、有色金属等板块。 每市APP显示，由华龙整体推荐的卓易信息涨幅高达98.94%，成为1月最牛金股。排名第二的是由国联 民生证券推荐的宏景科技，单月涨幅达68.75%，国新证券推荐的盛晖集成则排名第三，1月上涨了 61.59%。 1月份涨幅超50%的还包括华峰测控（太平洋证券推荐）、华虹半导体（兴业证券推荐）、金安国纪 （东莞证券推荐）、东方铁塔（西部证券推荐）、迈为股份（东吴证券、华源证券推荐）等等。此 外，紫金黄金国际（东北证券推荐）、华锡有色（西南证券推荐）、兆易创新（中航证券、中国银河 证券推荐）1月涨超45%。 券商金股组合也在1月展现了亮眼的超额收益能力。每市APP数据显示，共有11家券商金股组合在1月涨 超10%，显著跑 ...

Group 1 - Trump expressed hope for an agreement with Iran regarding nuclear issues, with Iranian Foreign Minister indicating confidence in negotiations [2][3] - SpaceX submitted a request to launch up to 1 million satellites to create an "orbital data center" and is considering an IPO, with revenue reported between $15 billion to $16 billion last year [4] - Apple is exploring a foldable iPhone design, with the first model expected to launch in September, while the "flip" version's market release remains uncertain [5][6] Group 2 - Nvidia's CEO Huang Renxun announced plans for a significant investment in OpenAI, potentially the largest in the company's history, amidst previous reports of a $100 billion investment plan being stalled [7] - A severe winter storm impacted the southeastern U.S., causing significant disruptions in transportation and logistics, particularly in North Carolina [8] - Shenzhen's "Jie Wo Rui" company is in the process of asset disposal and has initiated a repayment plan for affected consumers, with some receiving gold and cash as compensation [9] Group 3 - The AI-exclusive social network Moltbook gained popularity, attracting millions of AI agents discussing various topics, although some claims may be exaggerated [11] - Xiaopeng's humanoid robot made its debut but faced criticism after falling during a demonstration, prompting responses from company executives [12][14] - Wang Shi addressed rumors of his disappearance by sharing a recent cycling video, while Vanke projected a significant net loss for 2025 [16][17] Group 4 - A construction accident in Wuhan resulted in one death and one injury during the dismantling of a crane [19] - Reports of a potential joint venture between Xiaomi and Ford for electric vehicle production were denied by Ford, stating there is no factual basis for the claims [22] - Musk responded to allegations regarding his past communications with Jeffrey Epstein, asserting minimal contact and emphasizing the need to pursue those involved in serious crimes [23][24] Group 5 - Tesla's CEO Musk identified Chinese companies as the strongest competitors in the humanoid robot sector, highlighting their manufacturing capabilities and advancements in AI technology [33]

交易咨询资格号： 证监许可[2012]112 晨会纪要 2026 年 2 月 2 日 联系人：王竣冬 期货从业资格：F3024685 交易咨询从业证书号：Z0013759 研究咨询电话： 0531-81678626 客服电话： 400-618-6767 公司网址： www.ztqh.com [Table_QuotePic] 中泰微投研小程序 | 2026/2/2 | | 基于基本面研判 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 趋势空头 | 農荡偏空 | 農筋 | 農荡偏多 | 趋势多头 | | | 原油 | 多晶硅 | 沥青 | 合成橡胶 | | | 尿素 | 橡胶 | 燃油 | | | | 鸡蛋 | 工业硅 | 烧碱 | | | | 红枣 | 纸浆 | 二债 | | | | 中证1000指数期货 | 原木 | 十债 | | | | 生猪 | 胶版印刷纸 | 三十债 | | | | 中证500股指期货 | 沪深300股指期货 | 五债 | | | | 甲醇 | 上证50股指期货 | 苹果 | | | | 塑料 | 白糖 | 硅铁 | | | | 液化石油气 | 焦炭 | ...