Investment Rating - The report maintains a rating of "Outperform the Market" for the industry [4] Core Insights - The recent decrease in tungsten quotas by 4,000 tons in April, combined with seasonal production lows and environmental inspections, has led to a tightening supply and a significant increase in tungsten prices, reflecting its strategic value [1][3] - A meeting in Changsha emphasized the need for stricter regulation of strategic mineral exports, indicating a focus on controlling the entire supply chain from extraction to export [1][2] - The market for antimony is experiencing price adjustments due to weak downstream demand, despite a tight supply situation [2][14] - Molybdenum prices are supported by strong demand from the manufacturing sector, with a notable increase in procurement volumes [9][11] Summary by Sections Molybdenum - Molybdenum concentrate prices have risen to 3,505 CNY/ton, up 5.7% from previous lows, indicating robust demand from the manufacturing sector [9][11] - The total procurement volume for molybdenum iron steel exceeded 7,600 tons in early May, reflecting ongoing strong demand [11] Antimony - Antimony prices have seen a decline, with 2 antimony ingot prices at 219,000 CNY/ton, down 4.3% from the previous week, due to weak demand in downstream industries [2][14] - The supply remains tight, but the market is cautious with purchasing decisions [15] Magnesium - The average price of magnesium ingots has increased to 18,780 CNY/ton, with a 9.3% decrease in total inventory, indicating a tightening supply situation [19][20] Tungsten - The average price of black tungsten concentrate has risen to 167,500 CNY/ton, reflecting a 10% increase, driven by reduced quotas and supply constraints [3][22] - The APT price has also increased significantly, indicating a recovery in profitability for producers [3][22] Vanadium - The vanadium market remains stable with prices for vanadium pentoxide holding steady at 76,500 CNY/ton, reflecting a cautious market environment [27][29]

Investment Rating - Industry Rating: Recommended [5] Core Views - The easing of trade tensions between China and the US has led to a recovery in macroeconomic sentiment, benefiting the overall base metals sector [4][16][42] - Precious metals, particularly gold and silver, are expected to remain attractive due to ongoing economic uncertainties and inflation concerns, with gold prices anticipated to rise in the long term [4][42][43] - The report highlights potential investment opportunities in gold and silver mining companies, as well as in base metals like copper and aluminum, driven by favorable market conditions and policy support [17][18][42] Summary by Sections Precious Metals - Gold prices on COMEX fell by 3.72% to $3,205.30 per ounce, while silver prices decreased by 1.37% to $32.43 per ounce [22][24] - SPDR Gold ETF holdings decreased by 617,575.37 troy ounces, and SLV Silver ETF holdings fell by 1,591,307.50 ounces [24] - The macroeconomic environment is expected to support gold prices, with a focus on gold resource stocks due to their low valuation levels [4][42][43] Base Metals - In the LME market, copper prices increased by 0.02% to $9,447.50 per ton, aluminum rose by 2.65% to $2,481.50 per ton, zinc increased by 1.43% to $2,691.50 per ton, and lead rose by 0.93% to $2,000.00 per ton [6][44] - SHFE market showed similar trends with copper at 78,140.00 yuan per ton, aluminum at 20,130.00 yuan per ton, zinc at 22,500.00 yuan per ton, and lead at 16,870.00 yuan per ton [6][44] - The report indicates a tightening supply of copper concentrate and a favorable outlook for copper prices due to ongoing infrastructure investments and demand in sectors like electric vehicles [17][71] Small Metals - The report notes that magnesium prices have remained firm due to cost increases and environmental inspections in certain regions [14] - The market for molybdenum and vanadium is stable, with steel mills beginning to procure, although price movements are limited [15][79] - The US has initiated anti-dumping investigations on metal silicon imports, which may impact market dynamics [78]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the performance and valuation of China Rare Earth, which closed at 33.9 yuan, down 1.42%, with a rolling PE ratio of 483.08 times and a total market value of 35.975 billion yuan [1] - The average PE ratio for the small metals industry is 72.06 times, with a median of 56.42 times, placing China Rare Earth at the 39th position in the industry ranking [1] - As of the first quarter of 2025, 44 institutions hold shares in China Rare Earth, including 38 funds, 5 others, and 1 insurance company, with a total shareholding of 48.12771 million shares valued at 15.242 billion yuan [1] Group 2 - The main business of China Rare Earth includes rare earth mining, processing, production of rare earth oxides, and technology research and consulting services [1] - The company has applied for 26 new patents, with 7 invention patents and 4 utility model patents granted [1] - In the latest performance report for the first quarter of 2025, the company achieved an operating income of 728 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 141.32%, and a net profit of 72.6181 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 125.15%, with a sales gross margin of 9.77% [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that the market is expected to experience a steady upward trend supported by policy measures and liquidity easing, with a focus on technology growth and consumer recovery as the main driving forces [1][2] - The Central Political Bureau meeting emphasized timely interest rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio reductions, which are expected to release liquidity through structural tools, thereby solidifying the market bottom [1] - In Q1 2025, the net profit attributable to shareholders of A-shares turned positive year-on-year, with significant recovery in the profitability of small and medium-sized stocks, particularly in the TMT and consumer sectors [1] Group 2 - The CSI 500 Quality Growth Index consists of 100 listed companies selected for their high profitability, sustainable earnings, and strong cash flow, providing diverse investment options for investors [2] - As of April 30, 2025, the top ten weighted stocks in the CSI 500 Quality Growth Index accounted for 24.07% of the index, with notable companies including Chifeng Jilong Gold Mining and Ninebot [2][4] - The 500 Quality Growth ETF closely tracks the CSI 500 Quality Growth Index, offering investors a way to invest in these high-quality growth companies [2][4]

Core Viewpoint - The small metal concept stocks are experiencing a strong upward trend, particularly in the tungsten sector, with significant gains reported among various companies [1] Group 1: Company Performance - Zhangyuan Tungsten Industry has reached its daily limit increase [1] - Xianglu Tungsten Industry and China Tungsten High-tech have both risen over 5% [1] - Other companies such as Xiamen Tungsten Industry, Xingye Silver Tin, Dongfang Zirconium, and Yunnan Germanium have also seen increases [1] Group 2: Market Influences - Zhangyuan Tungsten Industry indicated that the rising prices of tungsten concentrate have a positive impact on the company [1]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" outlook on the non-ferrous metals industry for 2025 [2] Core Insights - The non-ferrous metals industry has experienced a qualitative change in profit quality, with significant growth in revenue and net profit over the past decade [4][19] - The industry is expected to continue benefiting from a tightening supply-demand structure, interest rate cuts, and favorable policy cycles [5][10] Summary by Sections 1. Industry Performance and Profit Growth - From 2015 to 2024, the non-ferrous metals industry achieved total revenue of 3,407.5 billion yuan, a 205% increase over ten years, and a net profit of 138.4 billion yuan, a staggering 4,691% increase [4][19] - The net profit surged from 15.7 billion yuan in 2019 to 181.8 billion yuan in 2022, marking a 1,062% increase during the global quantitative easing period [4][19] - In 2024, revenue growth accelerated to 5.86%, and net profit growth improved to 1.77%, compared to 2023's revenue growth of 1.5% and a net profit decline of 25.21% [4][19] 2. Price Trends in 2024 - Industrial metal prices generally increased due to a tight supply-demand structure, with zinc leading the rise at 20.1%, while nickel prices fell by 2.5% due to oversupply [5][31] - Precious metals saw significant price increases, with gold prices rising by 27.8% and silver by 24.8% [5][33] - Small metals exhibited mixed price movements, with cobalt prices dropping by 23.6% and antimony prices increasing by 72.6% [5][34] 3. Profitability and Industry Concentration - The profitability of the non-ferrous metals industry improved, with gross margins for industrial and precious metals rising to 10.03% and 12.95%, respectively [6][50] - The concentration of profits has increased, with the top ten companies accounting for 64% of net profits, up from 45% [6][60] - The top ten companies' net profits grew by 39%, significantly outpacing the overall industry net profit decline of 1% [6][60] 4. Fund Allocation Trends - The fund allocation in the non-ferrous metals sector reached a historical high of 5.43% in Q1 2024, before dropping to 2.85% by Q4 due to economic weakness and declining demand [7][9] - In Q1 2025, the allocation increased again to 4.34%, driven primarily by industrial and precious metals [9][10] 5. Outlook for 2025 - The copper sector is expected to maintain a tight supply-demand balance, with a significant reduction in long-term contract prices [10] - Gold is anticipated to benefit from heightened geopolitical risks and increased central bank purchases, leading to a sustained high demand [10] - The rare earth sector is showing signs of improvement due to supply-side reforms and increased demand from new energy and military sectors [10][35]

Market Overview - The market experienced a weak fluctuation, with all three major indices closing down. The consumer sector showed resilience, while over 3,800 stocks declined [1][3] - Goldman Sachs raised the 12-month targets for the MSCI China Index and the CSI 300 Index to 84 points and 4,600 points, respectively, indicating potential upside of 11% and 17%. They maintain an overweight rating on Chinese stocks and suggest focusing on multiple themes for excess returns [1] Sector Performance - New hotspots emerged in the market, particularly in the ergot sulfur concept, with Chuaning Biological hitting a 20% limit up. Other sectors such as beauty care and medical aesthetics also saw significant gains [1] - The food and beverage sector rebounded in the afternoon, with several stocks, including Xiwang Food, hitting the limit up. The shipping and port sector continued its upward trend, with Nanjing Port achieving three consecutive limit ups [1] - The textile and apparel sector showed recovery, with Huafang Co. achieving six limit ups in eight days. Other sectors like coal, chemicals, synthetic biology, rare earths, and ST stocks also performed well [1] Individual Stock Movements - A total of 1,407 stocks rose, while 3,856 stocks fell, with 149 stocks remaining flat. There were 78 stocks hitting the limit up and 12 stocks hitting the limit down [3] - The Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.68% to 3,380.82 points, with a trading volume of 461.3 billion yuan. The Shenzhen Component Index dropped by 1.62% to 10,186.45 points, with a trading volume of 688.7 billion yuan. The ChiNext Index decreased by 1.91% to 2,043.25 points [3] Fund Flow - Main funds focused on sectors such as chemical pharmaceuticals, small metals, and passenger vehicles, with notable net inflows into stocks like BYD, Chuaning Biological, and Shenghe Resources [4] Regulatory Developments - The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) is expediting the introduction of a comprehensive policy package to deepen reforms in the Sci-Tech Innovation Board and the ChiNext, aiming to enhance the inclusiveness and adaptability of the system [5] Industry Insights - The anti-aging industry is divided into medical and non-medical tracks, with the former focusing on basic medical research and the latter encompassing various fields such as sociology and artificial intelligence [2] - The China Academy of Sciences has made breakthroughs in the electro-catalytic reforming of waste plastic PET to produce biodegradable plastic PGA, with projected market demand reaching millions of tons [6] Economic Outlook - Analysts from Minsheng Securities suggest that China's asset resilience may be higher than that of overseas markets, with a focus on consumption sectors and undervalued financial stocks [9] - Huazhong Securities indicates that the market will continue to experience fluctuations until significant improvements in the macroeconomic fundamentals are observed [10]

Core Viewpoint - The demand for small metals in China is increasing due to energy transition and emerging industries, highlighting their critical resource status in manufacturing and supply chain enhancement [2] Group 1: Industry Demand and Performance - The consumption of tungsten in China is projected to reach 70,800 tons in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 3.52%, with raw tungsten consumption at 59,800 tons, up 4.19% [3] - Xiamen Tungsten's revenue from tungsten and molybdenum businesses is expected to reach 17.414 billion yuan in 2024, a growth of 5.78%, with a profit of 2.525 billion yuan, increasing by 7.55% [3] - The chairman of Xiamen Tungsten indicated that the tungsten industry is closely linked to global industrial structure, with downstream consumption being insensitive to price changes [3] Group 2: Company Innovations and Strategies - Xiamen Tungsten has expanded its applications in the photovoltaic sector, contributing an additional 5% to 8% to global tungsten demand through tungsten wire used for cutting silicon wafers [3] - The company reported a significant increase in fine tungsten wire sales, reaching 1,354 billion meters, with photovoltaic tungsten wire sales at 1,070 billion meters, a year-on-year increase of 56% [4] - Xiamen Tungsten aims to transition from selling products to providing comprehensive solutions, with plans to increase its tungsten resource assurance rate from 20% to 70% [4] Group 3: Global Expansion and Future Outlook - Xiamen Tungsten has initiated overseas operations, including a production base in Thailand, with an investment of approximately 190 million yuan for an annual production capacity of 800 tons of hard alloys [5] - The company is also developing a battery cathode materials base in France, focusing on solid-state battery materials to enhance performance and reduce costs [5] - Analysts predict that the demand for small metals will continue to grow due to the global manufacturing industry's shift towards high-end and intelligent production, driven by energy transition and clean energy strategies [6]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the performance and valuation of China Rare Earth, noting a closing price of 33.32 yuan, a 2.71% increase, and a rolling PE ratio of 474.81, which is the lowest in 20 days [1] - The total market capitalization of China Rare Earth is reported at 35.36 billion yuan, with a significant comparison to the average industry PE ratio of 71.13 and a median of 49.82, placing the company at 39th in the small metals industry ranking [1][2] - As of May 9, 2025, the number of shareholders for China Rare Earth is 166,640, a decrease of 1,323 from the previous count, with an average holding value of 352,800 yuan and an average shareholding of 27,600 shares [1] Group 2 - The main business of China Rare Earth includes the mining and processing of rare earth minerals, production of rare earth oxides, and technology research and consulting services, with key products being rare earth oxides, metals, and technical service income [1] - The company has recently applied for 26 new patents, with 7 invention patents and 4 utility model patents granted [1] - In the latest quarterly report for Q1 2025, China Rare Earth achieved an operating revenue of 728 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 141.32%, and a net profit of 72.62 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 125.15%, with a gross profit margin of 9.77% [1]

证券研究报告 2025年05月13日 行业报告： 行业深度研究 24&25Q1总结：资源端金&铜领涨，材料端盈利大幅提升 作者： 分析师 刘奕町 SAC执业证书编号：S1110523050001 分析师 曾先毅 SAC执业证书编号：S1110524060002 分析师 胡十尹 SAC执业证书编号：S1110525010002 联系人 吴亚宁 请务必阅读正文之后的信息披露和免责申明 1 行业评级： 上次评级： 强于大市 强于大市 维持 （ 评级） • 24-25Q1有色金属板块整体情况：资源端金&铜领涨，材料端盈利大幅提升。指数表现方面，24年全年有色板块涨幅为3.2%，低于沪深300指数，板块Q1大幅上 涨，之后主要由于宏观预期扰动大幅回落。25Q1有色板块涨幅为12%，位列申万一级行业之首，主要系有色板块主要品种价格表现强势，一方面特朗普关税政策 推升通胀预期，金价中枢持续抬升，另一方面3月是有色金属需求旺季，铜铝持续去库价格强势，高价格中枢下相关企业业绩释放预期增强。 • 贵金属：金价上涨带动企业盈利同比大增。 2024年黄金行业实现营业总收入2915.88亿元，同比+2.83%。 25Q1实现营收838 ...