以下文章来源于望京博格投基 ，作者望京博格 望京博格投基 . 记录望京博格投资基金的故事 长按即可参与 风险提示：本文所提到的观点仅代表个人的意见，所涉及标的不作推荐，据此买卖，风险自负。 作者： 望京博格 来源：雪球 一、港股是港币计价的人民币资产 在港股类似腾讯这样中资企业比比皆是~ 二、A股的估值不便宜 沪深300指数目前市盈率为12.26倍，处于最近10年43.33%的位置，只能说是不贵，但是绝对算不算便宜。 在2018年、2022年、2024年沪深300最低估值都触及10-11倍市盈率。 很多人把港股当做海外资金，其实港股是实实在在的港币计价的人民币资产。 例如，腾讯控股在港股上市，股价是以港币计算的。 但是腾讯的营收、资产、支出、发工资等等都是人民币，所以腾讯控股是人民币资产，专业点就是港币计价 的人民币资产。 近期国家队兜底市场，累计申购1300亿沪深300ETF，给予沪深300指数极大的支撑。 三、纳指与标普未来情况不明 A股有国家队兜底，跌幅是有限，但是未来涨幅也有限。例如最近一年港股涨的不错，主要因为之前港股回 调的足够充分了；反观A股涨幅有限，是因为之前没有跌透。 纳指100指数（NDX ...

Group 1: Impact of US-China Competition on Markets - The types of US-China competition can be categorized into four main areas: trade, technology, finance, and geopolitical issues, with tariffs being the most impactful [4] - The technology competition began with significant events such as the ZTE incident in 2018 and the Huawei entity list in 2019, causing short-term market shocks of around 5%, while themes of self-sufficiency and countermeasures performed well structurally [4] - Financial competition included the designation of China as a currency manipulator in 2019 and the Foreign Companies Accountability Act from 2020 to 2022, which had a notable impact on Hong Kong stocks, leading to market shocks of 5-10% [4] - Geopolitical events, such as the closure of consulates and the Xinjiang cotton incident, typically resulted in short-lived market impacts, with recovery occurring within a week, while sectors like defense and self-sufficiency themes performed well [4] Group 2: Trade Dynamics - The trade conflict initiated on March 23, 2018, with the US imposing tariffs on $60 billion worth of Chinese imports, leading to a significant market downturn followed by a three-month period of volatility [11] - Following the escalation of tariffs in June 2018, the market experienced a deeper adjustment, with sectors like defense and technology showing relative resilience [14] - The recent imposition of a 34% "reciprocal tariff" on April 2, 2025, led to a rapid decline in the Shanghai Composite Index, with export-oriented sectors suffering while domestic demand sectors like agriculture and food performed well [25] Group 3: Technology Sector Developments - The US's ban on ZTE in April 2018 marked the beginning of a technology confrontation, leading to a quick release of risk aversion in the A-share market [30] - The arrest of Huawei's CFO in December 2018 escalated concerns about the globalization of Chinese tech firms, causing significant market declines, particularly in the TMT sector [33] - The implementation of the US Chip and Science Act in August 2022 and subsequent export controls have pressured the technology sector, but the narrative of self-sufficiency has gained traction, leading to potential recovery opportunities [42][44] Group 4: Geopolitical Events - The closure of consulates in 2020 led to a brief change in risk appetite, but the market quickly recovered as tensions did not escalate further [50] - The "Xinjiang cotton" incident in 2021 had minimal impact on the overall market, instead boosting domestic brands like Anta and Li Ning [51] - The visit of Nancy Pelosi to Taiwan in August 2022 initially caused market declines, but subsequent recovery was driven by rising expectations for domestic semiconductor production [52] Group 5: Financial Sector Insights - The designation of China as a "currency manipulator" in August 2019 led to a market downturn, but a subsequent liquidity easing allowed for a rapid recovery [60] - The Foreign Companies Accountability Act from 2020 to 2022 primarily impacted US-listed Chinese companies and Hong Kong stocks, but the long-term effects were manageable as many companies opted for secondary listings in Hong Kong [61]

4月15日南向资金成交活跃股 注：本文系新闻报道，不构成投资建议，股市有风险，投资需谨慎。 从连续性进行统计， 有3只股获南向资金连续3天以上净买入，连续净买入天数较多的有美团-W、中国 海洋石油、泡泡玛特，连续净买入天数分别为8天、8天、3天。以其间净买入金额统计，净买入金额最 多的是美团-W，合计净买入为52.06亿港元，其次是中国海洋石油合计净买入为37.98亿港元，泡泡玛特 合计净买入为7.12亿港元。（数据宝） | 代码 | 简称 | 成交金额 | 成交净买入 | 今日涨跌幅 (%) | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | (万港元) | (万港元) | | | | 02800 | 盈富基金 | 85491.47 | 79187.25 | | 0.18 | | 00700 | 腾讯控股 | 462628.13 | 74791.35 | | 0.44 | | 03690 | 美团-W | 154323.45 | 52397.12 | | 0.62 | | 00941 | 中国移动 | 130224.82 | 40332.23 | | 1.47 | ...

Summary of Conference Call Notes Industry Overview - The conference primarily discusses the macroeconomic situation, focusing on the impact of tariffs and the U.S. economy on global markets, particularly in the commodities sector [1][2][3][4][5][6][7][8][9][10][11][12][13][14][15][16][17][18][19][20][21][22][23][24][25][26][27][28][29][30][31][32][33][34][35][36][37][38][39][40][41][42][43][44][45][46][47][48][49][50][51][52][53][54][55][56][57][58]. Key Points and Arguments 1. **Tariff Impact**: The U.S. initiated a significant tariff increase of 34% on various imports, which is expected to have a substantial impact on both the U.S. and global economies. The tariffs are seen as a strategic move by the Trump administration to force negotiations with other countries [2][3][4][5][6][7]. 2. **Economic Projections**: If the tariffs are fully implemented, it could lead to a 1.5% reduction in U.S. economic growth, pushing the economy towards a recession [7][8][9][10]. 3. **Tax Reform**: A proposed tax reform plan of approximately $4.5 trillion over ten years is expected to provide a marginal boost to the economy, potentially offsetting some negative impacts of the tariffs [8][9][10][11]. 4. **Debt Ceiling Concerns**: The U.S. government faces a looming debt ceiling crisis, which could impact the timing and implementation of the proposed tax reforms [9][10][11]. 5. **Global Trade Dynamics**: The tariffs are expected to disrupt global trade, with potential retaliatory measures from affected countries, leading to a decrease in global trade volume by 3-5% [26][27]. 6. **Commodity Market Outlook**: The commodities market is experiencing a split performance, with agricultural products and precious metals performing well, while industrial commodities like steel and energy are under pressure due to reduced demand and increased tariffs [35][36][37][38][39][40][41][42][43][44][45][46][47][48][49][50][51][52][53][54][55][56][57][58]. 7. **China's Economic Resilience**: Despite external pressures from U.S. tariffs, China's economy is showing resilience with a 4% growth in social consumer goods revenue, indicating a recovery in domestic consumption [23][24][25][26][27][28][29][30][31][32][33][34]. 8. **Investment Strategies**: The conference suggests that investment strategies should focus on sectors that are likely to benefit from government policies aimed at stimulating the economy, such as infrastructure and technology [28][29][30][31][32][33][34][35][36][37][38][39][40][41][42][43][44][45][46][47][48][49][50][51][52][53][54][55][56][57][58]. Other Important but Overlooked Content - **Inflation Concerns**: The tariffs are expected to increase consumer prices significantly, with estimates suggesting an average annual increase of $3,800 for U.S. households [26][27]. - **Labor Market Impacts**: The tariffs may negatively affect employment in manufacturing sectors, necessitating government intervention to stabilize job markets [17][18][19][20][21][22]. - **Monetary Policy Adjustments**: The People's Bank of China may need to adjust its monetary policy in response to the economic pressures from U.S. tariffs, potentially leading to interest rate cuts [31][32][33][34][35][36][37][38][39][40][41][42][43][44][45][46][47][48][49][50][51][52][53][54][55][56][57][58]. This summary encapsulates the key discussions and insights from the conference call, highlighting the interconnectedness of tariffs, economic performance, and investment strategies in the current global landscape.

Group 1 - The report emphasizes the grid trading strategy as a method to profit from price fluctuations without predicting market trends, making it suitable for volatile markets [3][15] - Characteristics of suitable grid trading targets include selecting on-market assets, stable long-term trends, low transaction costs, good liquidity, and high volatility, with equity ETFs being particularly appropriate [3][15] Group 2 - The report highlights the focus on specific ETFs for grid trading, including the National Defense ETF (512670.SH), which benefits from China's strengthening military capabilities and ongoing innovations in defense technology [5][16] - The Hong Kong Central Enterprise Dividend ETF (159333.SZ) is noted for its high dividend yield, supported by government policies encouraging long-term capital investment and stable dividend mechanisms [6][19] - The National Goods ETF (561130.SH) aligns with government initiatives to boost consumption, focusing on domestic brands and sectors benefiting from consumer upgrades [7][20] - The Morgan MSCI ETF (515770.SH) is positioned as a tool for global investors to access Chinese core assets, reflecting the current economic cycle and policy advantages in China [9][24]

港股大消费股尾盘走强，中国中免（601888）涨超20%，海底捞、华润啤酒、美团、周黑鸭等跟涨。 ...

| 00941 | 中国移动 | 140908.42 | 58830.51 | -0.13 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 01810 | 小米集团-W | 1794825.02 | 34134.54 | 6.72 | | 09992 | 泡泡玛特 | 92622.81 | 16766.96 | 4.89 | | 02269 | 药明生物 | 238996.13 | -3280.06 | -2.52 | | 03033 | 南方恒生科技 | 132206.22 | -47076.45 | 4.10 | 今日上榜个股中，腾讯控股、阿里巴巴-W、美团-W等8只股同时上榜港股通（深）、港股通（沪）成 交活跃股，腾讯控股合计成交额160.50亿港元，成交净买入29.85亿港元，阿里巴巴-W合计成交额 146.09亿港元，成交净买入27.05亿港元。药明生物合计成交额23.90亿港元，成交净卖出3280.06万港 元。 从连续性进行统计， 有6只股获南向资金连续3天以上净买入，连续净买入天数较多的有腾讯控股、中 芯国际、小米集团-W，连续净买入天数分别为7天、7天、4天。以其间净 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the upcoming earnings report season in April, emphasizing the importance of company performance amid rising external uncertainties and market volatility. It suggests that sectors and companies with better-than-expected performance may stand out during this period [1]. Earnings Preview - A-shares' earnings in Q1 2025 are expected to show flat or slightly negative year-on-year growth due to external demand pressures and macroeconomic challenges. February CPI showed a negative year-on-year growth for the first time in 12 months, while PPI remains low despite marginal improvements [1]. - The impact of increased tariffs from the U.S. on Chinese exports is noted, with February exports showing a year-on-year decline of 3.0%, marking the first negative growth since March of the previous year. The overall earnings growth for A-shares is projected to be around zero or slightly negative [1][2]. Sector Analysis Financial Sector - The brokerage and insurance sectors are expected to benefit from higher market activity in Q1 [2]. Non-Financial Sector - High-demand industries are relatively scarce, but sectors supported by policies, such as non-ferrous metals and certain TMT (Technology, Media, and Telecommunications) areas, may present structural highlights [2]. - Energy and raw materials sectors are expected to have generally flat performance, with non-ferrous metals benefiting from rising gold and copper prices [3]. - The manufacturing sector is showing overall flat performance with some localized recovery, supported by export demand [4]. - The consumer sector's demand remains weak, although policy support areas like "trade-in" programs are performing well [5]. TMT Sector - The communication equipment sector is expected to benefit from increased capital expenditure in the internet sector, while consumer electronics may see mixed results [6]. - The semiconductor sector is maintaining good demand in areas related to computing power, despite being in a traditional off-season [6]. Financial and Real Estate Sector - The banking sector remains stable, while brokerages may benefit from increased trading activity. The insurance sector's performance may vary, and the real estate sector continues to face downward pressure [6]. Investment Focus - Investors are advised to focus on sectors with potential for earnings surprises or improvements during the earnings disclosure period. Key areas to watch include sectors recovering from cyclical lows, such as semiconductors and consumer electronics, and industries achieving supply-side clearing in a mild recovery environment [7].

Group 1: Core Views - The macroeconomic environment in China is expected to remain under pressure in 2024, with a weak recovery phase, but there are structural resilience highlights in the REITs market [2][4] - The average performance completion rate of public REITs projects exceeded 100%, indicating stable performance realization [2][3] - The forced dividend characteristic of public REITs is emphasized, with an average of 2 dividend distributions expected in 2024 [2][3] Group 2: Market Dynamics - The operating resilience of REITs projects is attributed to controllable asset supply-demand contradictions, alignment with policy directions, and stable payment terminal projects [2][4] - The average rental income of second-tier industrial park projects is projected to decline by 5.4% year-on-year, while first-tier parks are adopting strategies to maintain occupancy rates [5][6] - The logistics real estate market is experiencing a short-term adjustment, with average effective rent declining by 4.0% year-on-year [7][8] Group 3: Investment Structure - Institutional investor participation in public REITs reached a record high of 96.45%, with brokerage firms becoming a significant pricing force [3][4] - The insurance sector's participation remained stable compared to the previous year, indicating a cautious approach to incremental allocation [3][4] Group 4: Sector Performance - Retail properties are entering a phase of stock competition, with over half of key cities experiencing a decrease in vacancy rates, although rental prices remain under pressure [9][10] - The rental housing market is seeing increased supply, but listed projects are maintaining operational resilience, with overall income growth of 0.6% year-on-year [10][11] - Toll revenue for expressways is under pressure due to various factors, but there is a gradual improvement in performance observed in Q4 2024 [12][13]

文 | 银行螺丝钉 （转载请注明出处） 银行、红利等价值风格整体上涨。 科创板等成长风格微跌。 港股波动不大，港股科技股微涨。 今年港股比较火。 也有朋友问港股的指数体系，港股有哪些指数基金可以投资？ 港股跟A股指数体系类似，也是宽基、策略、行业、主题这样的分类。 只不过港股因为本土基金市场比较小，每一类的指数基金数量、规模，比A股少很多。 1. 港股宽基指数 今天大盘略微上涨，截止到收盘，还在5星。 沪深300等大盘股微跌。 小盘股微涨。 代表是恒生指数、H股指数、港股中小。 （1）恒生指数 港股的代表指数，代表港股的大盘股。 （2）H股指数 全称是恒生中国企业指数，简称H股指数或者国企指数。 其实是中国企业的意思。 早期这两个指数有差异。但现在恒生指数中内地公司占比越来越高，这两个指数也比较相似了。 （3）香港中小 恒生和H股指数都是大盘股为主。 香港中小则是大中盘股为主。市值规模小一些。 香港中小也是2018-2019年那轮熊市咱们定投比较多的指数，后来到了高估完成止盈，收益也不错。 咱们估值表里也已经考虑了分红税的因素了。 现在也有一些定期分红的港股红利类品种。 例如沪港深红利成长低波动、恒生红利低波 ...