1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - The Shanghai zinc futures showed a volatile downward trend in the previous trading day, with increased trading volume and both long and short positions increasing, but the short positions increased more. The market is expected to be volatile and weak in the short term. The price closed below the moving - average system, losing short - term support. The short - term KDJ indicator declined and was in the weak area with increased oversold conditions. The trend indicator showed that the long - position strength decreased and the short - position strength increased, with the short - position strength having an expanding advantage. The operation suggestion is that the Shanghai zinc ZN2605 will be volatile and weak [18]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Analysis - In November 2025, the global zinc plate production was 1.197 million tons, consumption was 1.168 million tons, with a supply surplus of 29,000 tons. From January to November, the global zinc plate production was 12.7561 million tons, consumption was 13.1065 million tons, with a supply shortage of 350,400 tons. In November, the global zinc ore production was 1.069 million tons. From January to November, the global zinc ore production was 12.1419 million tons. The overall fundamental situation is bullish [2]. 3.2 Basis Analysis - The spot price was 23,260, and the basis was - 85, showing a neutral situation [2]. 3.3 Inventory Analysis - On March 18, the LME zinc inventory decreased by 350 tons to 118,025 tons, and the SHFE zinc inventory warrants increased by 2,593 tons to 101,263 tons, presenting a neutral situation [2]. 3.4 Market Trend Analysis - The Shanghai zinc futures showed a volatile downward trend in the previous trading day, closing below the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average was downward, which is bearish [2]. 3.5 Main Position Analysis - The main net long position increased, which is bullish [2]. 3.6 Futures Market Quotes - On March 18, the trading volume of zinc futures on the futures exchange was 227,073 lots, with a turnover of 2.66144842 billion yuan, and the open interest was 205,724 lots, an increase of 12,840 lots. Different delivery months had different price changes, with varying degrees of decline [3]. 3.7 Spot Market Quotes - On March 18, the domestic spot price of 0 zinc in different regions such as Shanghai, Guangdong, Tianjin, and Zhejiang all declined, with price ranges and specific prices provided [4]. 3.8 Inventory Statistics - From March 5 to March 16, 2026, the total social inventory of zinc ingots in major domestic markets increased from 213,600 tons to 236,200 tons. Compared with March 9, it increased by 17,900 tons, and compared with March 12, it increased by 5,100 tons [5]. 3.9 Warehouse Receipt Report - On March 18, the total SHFE zinc warehouse receipts were 101,263 tons, an increase of 2,593 tons. Different regions had different changes in warehouse receipts, with Shanghai increasing by 300 tons, Guangdong increasing by 431 tons, and Tianjin increasing by 1,862 tons [6]. 3.10 LME Inventory Distribution - On March 18, the LME zinc inventory decreased by 350 tons to 118,025 tons, with different inventory changes in different regions and corresponding registered and cancelled warehouse receipts and cancellation ratios [7]. 3.11 Zinc Concentrate Price - On March 18, the prices of zinc concentrates in major domestic cities all decreased by 510 yuan/ton, with a price of 19,950 - 20,050 yuan/ton for 50% grade zinc concentrates [9]. 3.12 Zinc Ingot Smelter Price - On March 18, the prices of 0 zinc ingots from different smelters all decreased by 640 yuan/ton, with prices ranging from 22,940 - 23,940 yuan/ton [12]. 3.13 Refined Zinc Production - In February 2026, the domestic refined zinc production was 470,900 tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 1.72% and a year - on - year increase of 10.01%. The planned production for March was 490,200 tons [14]. 3.14 Zinc Concentrate Processing Fee - On March 18, the domestic zinc concentrate processing fee for 50% grade was 1,400 - 1,700 yuan/metal ton, and the import processing fee for 48% grade was 10 - 30 US dollars/kiloton [16]. 3.15 Member Transaction and Position Ranking - On March 18, the total trading volume of zinc futures of SHFE members was 140,641 lots, an increase of 51,393 lots. The total long position was 65,474 lots, an increase of 10,415 lots, and the total short position was 64,761 lots, an increase of 12,173 lots. Different members had different trading volume, long - position, and short - position changes [17].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information is provided in the text. Core Viewpoints - The supply side of copper has disturbances, with smelting enterprises reducing production and the scrap copper policy being relaxed. In February, the manufacturing PMI was 49.0%, a 0.3 percentage point decrease from the previous month, indicating a decline in manufacturing prosperity; this is bullish [2]. - The spot price is 99050, with a basis of 460, showing a premium over futures; this is neutral [2]. - On March 18, copper inventories increased by 3725 to 334100 tons, and the SHFE copper inventories increased by 8313 tons to 433458 tons compared to the previous week; this is bearish [2]. - The closing price is below the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is moving downward; this is bearish [2]. - The main positions are net long, but the long positions are decreasing; this is bullish [2]. - Geopolitical disturbances still exist, and the incident at the Grasberg Block Cave mine in Indonesia has fermented. Copper prices have reached a new historical high and are currently oscillating downward at a high level. Attention should be paid to events in the Middle East [2]. Summary by Directory Daily View - The supply - side situation, PMI data, basis, inventory, moving average, and main positions of copper are analyzed, with a comprehensive view on the copper market [2]. Recent利多利空Analysis - Bullish factors include global policy easing and mine - end tightness, as well as geopolitical disturbances in Russia - Ukraine, Iran - US - Israel, Fed rate cuts, and slow mine - end production increase and the production cut event at the Freeport Indonesia mine [3][4]. - Bearish factors include the recurrence of US comprehensive tariffs and the fact that the global economy is not optimistic, and high copper prices will suppress downstream consumption [4]. Spot - Information on spot prices, price changes, and inventory types and quantities is presented, but specific data is not fully filled in [6]. Exchange Inventory - The SHFE copper inventory increased by 8313 tons to 433458 tons compared to the previous week, and on March 18, copper inventories increased by 3725 to 334100 tons [2]. Bonded Area Inventory - The bonded area inventory has rebounded from a low level [12]. Processing Fee - The processing fee has declined [14]. CFTC - No specific information is provided in the text. Supply - Demand Balance - In 2024, there is a slight surplus, and in 2025, it is in a tight balance [18]. - The Chinese annual supply - demand balance table shows the production, import, export, apparent consumption, actual consumption, and supply - demand balance of copper from 2018 to 2024 [20].

Global Asset Market Performance - The latest yields of 10 - year government bonds in major economies: US 4.267, UK 4.735, France 3.603, Germany 2.938, Italy 3.726, Spain 3.434, Switzerland 0.338, Greece 3.720, Japan 2.211, Brazil 6.273, China 1.831, Australia 4.897, New Zealand 4.595 [3] - The latest yields of 2 - year government bonds in major economies: US 3.777, UK 4.096, Germany 2.442, Japan 1.247, Italy 2.664, China (1Y yield) 1.254, Australia 4.506 [3] - The latest exchange rates of the US dollar against major emerging - economy currencies: Brazil 5.268, South Africa zar 16.990, Korean won 1500.600, Thai baht 32.372, Malaysian ringgit 3.916 [3] - The latest exchange rates of the RMB: on - shore RMB 6.888, off - shore RMB 6.900, RMB central parity rate 6.891, RMB 12 - month NDF 6.754 [3] - The latest stock indices of major economies: S&P 500 6624.700, Dow Jones Industrial Average 46225.150, NASDAQ 22152.420, Mexican stock index 65779.230, UK stock index 10305.290, French CAC 7969.880, German DAX 23502.250, Spanish stock index 17299.100, Japanese Nikkei 55239.400, Hong Kong Hang Seng Index 26025.420, Shanghai Composite Index 4062.984, Taiwan stock index 34348.580, Korean stock index 5925.030, Thai stock index 1440.850, Malaysian stock index 1729.810, Australian stock index 8847.671, emerging - economy stock index 1517.450 [3] - The latest credit - bond indices: US investment - grade credit - bond index 3526.900, euro - zone investment - grade credit - bond index 264.948, emerging - economy investment - grade credit - bond index 289.040, US high - yield credit - bond index 2907.990, euro - zone high - yield credit - bond index 408.110, emerging - economy high - yield credit - bond index 1821.217 [3] Stock Index Futures Trading Data - Index performance: A - share closing price 4062.98, up 0.32%; CSI 300 closing price 4658.33, up 0.45%; SSE 50 closing price 2961.43, down 0.07%; ChiNext closing price 3346.37, up 2.02%; CSI 500 closing price 8096.43, up 1.00% [4] - Valuation: PE(TTM) of CSI 300 is 14.18 with a 0.02环比 change; SSE 50 is 11.55 with a 0.00环比 change; CSI 500 is 36.47 with a 0.31环比 change; S&P 500 is 25.93 with a - 0.35环比 change; German DAX is 17.19 with a - 0.17环比 change [4] - Risk premium: 1/PE - 10 - year interest rate of S&P 500 is - 0.41 with a - 0.01环比 change; German DAX is 2.88 with a 0.02环比 change [4] - Fund flow: A - share latest value is 287.74, 5 - day average is - 831.95; main - board latest value is - 112.26, 5 - day average is - 642.52; ChiNext latest value is 333.56, 5 - day average is - 119.47; CSI 300 latest value is 35.24, 5 - day average is - 93.88 [4] - Transaction amount: The latest value of Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets is 20460.64, with a - 1617.97环比 change; CSI 300 is 5241.74, with a - 543.28环比 change; SSE 50 is 1137.22, with a - 186.62环比 change; small - and medium - sized board is 4121.34, with a - 408.72环比 change; ChiNext is 5398.75, with a - 197.99环比 change [5] - Main contract basis: IF basis is - 6.93, amplitude is - 0.15%; IH basis is - 2.83, amplitude is - 0.10%; IC basis is - 10.43, amplitude is - 0.13% [5] Treasury Futures Trading Data - Closing prices: T2303 is 108.27, up 0.12%; TF2303 is 106.00, up 0.08%; T2306 is 108.21, up 0.09%; TF2306 is 105.81, up 0.07% [5] - Fund interest rates: R001 is 1.3976%, daily change is - 10.00 BP; R007 is 1.4946%, daily change is - 1.00 BP; SHIBOR - 3M is 1.5320%, daily change is - 1.00 BP [5]

Report Investment Rating The provided text does not mention the investment rating for the industry. Core Viewpoints - Macro situation is gradually stabilizing, and stock index fluctuations are converging [1] - Overseas conflict situation has eased, and overall macro risk appetite has stabilized. The next round of China-US consultations will be held soon, and the market may expect the two countries to reach new consensus [4] - A-share major indexes have entered a phase of volatility with decreasing volatility, and the market style switches frequently. Energy is one of the few sectors maintaining a strong upward trend. Technically, there is no sign of a breakthrough trend yet. Fundamental economic data is greatly affected by holidays, and it is necessary to continue to wait and observe the recovery rhythm. It is recommended to mainly adopt a wait-and-see approach and combine with a small amount of bull spread options [4] Summary by Directory 1. Futures Indicators - **Market Overview**: This week, the four major index futures contracts fluctuated narrowly with the index. IF and IH increased by 0.18% and decreased by 1.15% respectively; IC and IM decreased by 1.39% and 0.33% respectively. From the changes in the positions of the top 20 seats, the net short positions of IF decreased by 2,288 lots, those of IH increased by 193 lots, those of IC decreased by 4,868 lots, and those of IM decreased by 4,345 lots. As of this Friday, the optimal rollover contracts for IF, IH, IC, and IM were all the 2604 contracts [10] - **A-shares**: This week, the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index decreased by 1.07%, the Shanghai 50 Index decreased by 1.54%, the CSI 500 Index decreased by 3.44%, and the CSI 1000 Index decreased by 3.64% [10] - **Basis and Cross-variety Ratios**: The basis of the four major index futures contracts fluctuated neutrally, and the market's long and short forces were relatively balanced. The current basis of the IF main contract was -11.14 points, that of the IH main contract was 0.15 points, that of the IC main contract was -26.0 points, and that of the IM main contract was -27.29 points. This week, the futures contract ratios, PE ratios, and PB ratios of CSI 1000/Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 and CSI 500/Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 decreased, and the market was mainly in a state of shock [10] - **Industry Sector Performance**: This week, most of the Wind primary industry indexes declined, while the energy sector rose against the trend. The top rising sectors included materials, energy, and public utilities, with increases of 8.03%, 6.31%, and 5.50% respectively; the top falling sectors included communication services, finance, and daily consumption, with decreases of 3.20%, 1.10%, and 0.18% respectively [13] - **Futures Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volumes of the four major index futures significantly shrank [14] - **Spot-futures Price Difference Trend**: The basis fluctuated and declined, and seasonality gradually emerged [19] - **Inter-period Spread Trend**: The text provides the inter-period spread trends of IF, IC, IH, and IM [24] - **Cross-variety Ratios**: The futures ratios, PE ratios, and PB ratios of some cross-varieties decreased, and the market was mainly in a state of shock [32] - **Positions of the Top 20 Seats and Market Trends**: The long-short ratio has rebounded [40] - **Short Rollover Costs**: The annualized short rollover cost of the next-month contract was the lowest [47] 2. Macro Fundamental Tracking - **Domestic High-frequency Macroeconomic Tracking**: In January, the M1 and M2 increased by 4.9% and 9.0% year-on-year respectively, and the growth rates accelerated by 1.1 and 0.5 percentage points compared with the previous month. The credit of the enterprise sector increased significantly year-on-year. From January to December 2025, the national fixed asset investment decreased by 3.8% year-on-year, and the national real estate development investment decreased by 17.2% year-on-year, with the decline still expanding. In February, affected by the Spring Festival, the CPI increased by 1.0% month-on-month and 1.3% year-on-year, and the core CPI excluding food and energy prices increased by 1.8% year-on-year. The PPI increased by 0.4% month-on-month and decreased by 0.9% year-on-year, with the decline narrowing continuously. In December, the total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 0.9% year-on-year. In February, the manufacturing PMI was 49%, and the non-manufacturing PMI was 49.5%. The automobile production and consumption showed that the full-steel tire and semi-steel tire increased by 36.73% and 39.47% respectively compared with last week. From January to February, exports (in US dollars) increased by 21.8% year-on-year, imports increased by 19.8% year-on-year, and the trade surplus was 213.62 billion US dollars [59] - **Real Estate**: The land transactions in first-tier cities significantly rebounded. In 2025, the national real estate development investment decreased by 17.2% year-on-year, and the decline continued to expand. At the beginning of 2026, the commercial housing transactions slightly rebounded [60][67] - **Consumption**: The decline of PPI continued to narrow, and the Spring Festival had a significant boost to the consumer price index [72] - **Automobile Production and Sales**: The steel tire operating rate continued to rise, and automobile sales declined in January [76] - **Foreign Trade**: From January to February, foreign trade had a good start, and the global manufacturing cycle was on the rise [84] 3. Liquidity Tracking - **Liquidity Indicator Tracking**: On March 13, the SHIBOR overnight interest rate was 1.32%, unchanged from last week. The loan market quotation rate remained unchanged, with the 1-year LPR at 3.0% and the 5-year LPR at 3.5%. This week, the central bank conducted 176.5 billion yuan of reverse repurchase operations. Due to the maturity of 277.6 billion yuan of reverse repurchase, the net withdrawal for the whole week was 101.1 billion yuan. This week, A-share funds had a cumulative net active sell-off of 314.79 billion yuan, the average daily trading volume of A-shares in the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets slightly shrank to 2.48 trillion yuan, the margin trading balance increased, and the stock ETF funds had a net outflow of 1.0503 billion yuan [91][92]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information is provided in the report regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The 3 - month FOMC maintained the interest rate at 3.50% - 3.75%, and the conflict between the US and Iran escalated, which had a significant impact on the global financial and commodity markets [2]. - A - shares showed a V - shaped rebound, but the risk preference was affected by the external environment, and the short - term market was likely to continue to fluctuate and differentiate among sectors. The bond market also showed a rebound but was restricted by the fundamentals and inflation expectations [3]. - Precious metals were under pressure due to the Fed's hawkish signals and high inflation data, and were expected to maintain a weak trend in the short term [4][5]. - Copper prices were under pressure due to the Fed's policy stance and high PPI data, and were expected to continue to adjust in the short term [6][7]. - Aluminum prices were affected by both positive and negative factors, with the tightening expectation suppressing the upside and the supply - side disturbance providing support, and were expected to remain strong [8][9]. - Alumina was affected by the policy uncertainty of Guinea's bauxite, but the subsequent supply pressure might limit its upside space, and it was expected to be strongly volatile [10]. - Cast aluminum was affected by the cost and supply - demand situation, and was expected to fluctuate within a limited range [11]. - Zinc prices were under pressure due to the Fed's hawkish signals and geopolitical tensions, and the short - term decline was rapid [12][13]. - Lead prices had limited upward momentum due to weak downstream purchases, but the low - level operation of the regenerated lead smelter provided support [14]. - Tin prices were under pressure due to weak macro and micro factors, and were expected to decline to find support [15]. - Nickel prices were affected by the Fed's policy and supply - demand fundamentals, and were expected to fluctuate in the short term [16][17]. - Lithium carbonate prices were under pressure due to the Fed's reduced interest - rate cut expectations, and were expected to be weakly volatile in the short term [18]. - Steel prices were affected by the Fed's policy and the recovery of terminal demand, and were expected to fluctuate [19]. - Iron ore prices were supported by the shipping cost increase and supply - demand situation, and were expected to remain high and volatile [20]. - Coking coal and coke prices were boosted by the rising oil prices, and were expected to continue to rebound in an oscillatory manner [21]. - Bean and rapeseed meal prices were affected by the supply of soybeans and the energy market, and were expected to adjust in an oscillatory manner [22]. - Palm oil prices were affected by the energy market and supply - demand situation, and were expected to adjust in an oscillatory manner [23][25]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro - Overseas: The 3 - month FOMC maintained the interest rate at 3.50% - 3.75% with a 11:1 vote, added the statement of "highly uncertain Middle - East situation", and the dot - plot still maintained one interest - rate cut in 2026 - 2027. The SEP slightly revised up the growth and inflation expectations for 2026. The conflict between the US and Iran escalated, affecting the global energy supply. The CME interest - rate futures postponed the next interest - rate cut to July 2027, the 10Y US Treasury yield rose to 4.28%, the US dollar index returned to 100, and the US stocks, gold, and copper fell, while the oil price rose by 5% [2]. - Domestic: A - shares had a V - shaped rebound on Wednesday, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 4063 points. The trading volume shrank to 2.06 trillion yuan. The risk preference of A - shares was affected by the external environment, and the short - term market was likely to continue to fluctuate. The bond market rebounded, but was restricted by the fundamentals and inflation expectations [3]. 3.2 Precious Metals - The international precious - metal futures prices fell sharply on Wednesday, with COMEX gold futures down 3.68% to $4823.90 per ounce and COMEX silver futures down 5.63% to $75.42 per ounce. The Fed released hawkish signals, the market's interest - rate cut expectations cooled, and the US inflation data exceeded expectations, putting pressure on precious - metal prices. The Fed's March meeting maintained the interest rate, pointed out the uncertainty of the Middle - East impact, and raised the inflation expectation. The interest - rate futures market expected a 50% probability of an interest - rate cut this year. Precious - metal prices were expected to remain weak in the short term [4][5]. 3.3 Copper - On Wednesday, the main contract of Shanghai copper broke through the support level, and LME copper fell to around $12300. The domestic electrolytic copper spot market had weak transactions. The macro factors included the Fed's policy stance and the high US PPI data in February, which indicated a possible rebound in underlying inflation and limited the Fed's interest - rate cut space. The industry news was that BHP planned to invest $5 billion in a new concentrator project for its Escondida copper mine in Chile. Copper prices were expected to continue to adjust in the short term [6][7]. 3.4 Aluminum - On Wednesday, the main contract of Shanghai aluminum closed at 24800 yuan/ton, down 0.4%. The LME aluminum closed at $3419.5 per ton, up 1.63%. The electrolytic aluminum ingot inventory increased, and the aluminum rod inventory also increased. The Fed maintained the interest rate and raised the inflation expectation. The Middle - East geopolitical conflict continued to escalate, which had both positive and negative impacts on aluminum prices. Aluminum prices were expected to remain strong [8][9]. 3.5 Alumina - On Wednesday, the main contract of alumina futures closed at 3048 yuan/ton, up 0.66%. The spot alumina price rose. The import of bauxite increased. The policy uncertainty of Guinea's bauxite drove the alumina market, but the subsequent supply pressure might limit its upside space. Alumina was expected to be strongly volatile [10]. 3.6 Cast Aluminum - On Wednesday, the main contract of cast - aluminum alloy futures closed at 23570 yuan/ton, down 0.86%. The scrap - aluminum price fluctuated, and the supply of scrap aluminum gradually recovered. The supply of cast aluminum increased slightly, and the consumption increased slightly when the price fell. Cast aluminum was expected to fluctuate within a limited range [11]. 3.7 Zinc - On Wednesday, the main contract of Shanghai zinc showed a weak trend, and LME zinc broke through the support level. The US PPI data exceeded expectations, the Fed maintained the interest rate, and the dot - plot showed a reduced expectation of interest - rate cuts. The geopolitical tension in the Middle - East increased the risk aversion sentiment. Zinc prices were under pressure and were expected to have fluctuations around 23000 [12][13]. 3.8 Lead - On Wednesday, the main contract of Shanghai lead showed a narrow - range oscillation. The terminal consumption recovered limitedly, and the battery export was restricted by tariffs. The downstream battery enterprises reduced their purchases when the lead price rebounded. The regenerated lead smelter had large losses and low operating loads, which provided support. Lead prices were expected to operate in a low - level range [14]. 3.9 Tin - On Wednesday, the main contract of Shanghai tin showed a weak trend. The US PPI data exceeded expectations, the Fed maintained the interest rate, and the geopolitical situation in the Middle - East was tense. The supply of tin ore improved, and the demand was affected by the correction of AI expectations and the under - expected photovoltaic orders. Tin prices were expected to decline to find support [15]. 3.10 Nickel - On Wednesday, the main contract of Shanghai nickel oscillated and declined. The Fed's policy stance suppressed the market risk preference. The supply of nickel ore was restricted by the rainy season in the Philippines, and the cost was supported. The downstream steel mills were in the seasonal procurement period, but the demand was affected by the high - cost raw materials. Nickel prices were expected to fluctuate in the short term [16][17]. 3.11 Lithium Carbonate - On Wednesday, lithium carbonate prices fell significantly, and the spot market also weakened. The raw - material prices decreased. The supply was expected to increase, and the demand in the power - battery and energy - storage fields had different performances. Lithium carbonate prices were under pressure but had some support, and were expected to be weakly volatile in the short term [18]. 3.12 Steel (Screw and Coil) - On Wednesday, steel futures oscillated and adjusted. The Fed maintained the interest rate. The Middle - East situation affected the market sentiment. The terminal demand recovered, and the steel production increased after the Two Sessions. Steel prices were expected to fluctuate [19]. 3.13 Iron Ore - On Wednesday, iron - ore futures oscillated. The spot market had normal transactions. The shipping cost increased due to the Iran conflict, which supported the iron - ore price. The overseas shipment increased, the port inventory decreased slightly, and the demand from steel mills increased. Iron - ore prices were expected to remain high and volatile [20]. 3.14 Coking Coal and Coke - On Wednesday, coking - coal and coke futures rebounded in an oscillatory manner. The Middle - East geopolitical conflict pushed up the oil price, which drove the coal market. The coking - coal price rebounded, and the coke cost was supported. The supply of coking coal was relatively loose, and the demand for coke increased. Coking - coal and coke prices were expected to continue to rebound in an oscillatory manner [21]. 3.15 Bean and Rapeseed Meal - On Wednesday, the bean - meal 05 contract fell 0.26%, and the rapeseed - meal 05 contract fell 1.09%. The Middle - East energy infrastructure was attacked, and the oil price rose, which boosted the soybean and related agricultural - product markets. The domestic short - term supply was expected to be tight, and the downstream purchasing enthusiasm increased. Bean and rapeseed meal prices were expected to adjust in an oscillatory manner [22]. 3.16 Palm Oil - On Wednesday, palm - oil futures fell. The Middle - East situation affected the energy market, and the oil price rose. The B50 biodiesel policy in Indonesia might be restarted, and the US biodiesel policy was to be released. Palm - oil prices were expected to adjust in an oscillatory manner [23][25]. 3.17 Metal Main - Variety Trading Data The report provides the closing prices, price changes, trading volumes, and other data of various metal futures on March 18, including copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, tin, gold, silver, etc. [26] 3.18 Industry Data Perspective The report provides the price changes, inventory changes, and other data of copper, nickel, zinc, lead, aluminum, alumina, tin, and other metals from March 17 to March 18 [27][30].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The overall market is affected by multiple factors such as geopolitical conflicts, Fed policies, and supply - demand relationships. Different sectors show various trends, with some being affected by cost, supply disruptions, and demand changes. For example, energy - related products are strongly influenced by the escalating Middle - East conflict, while some agricultural products are affected by planting area forecasts and supply - demand fundamentals [20][60][120]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Financial Derivatives - **Stock Index Futures**: The market is still volatile. Although there were short - term rebounds, trading volume did not increase significantly. It is recommended to use grid operations for single - side trading, conduct IM/IC long 2609 + short ETF cash - and - carry arbitrage, and adopt a double - buy strategy for options [20][21]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The safe - haven property of the bond market has increased. With the central bank's net withdrawal of short - term liquidity, the bond market continued to recover on Wednesday. It is recommended to wait and see for both single - side trading and arbitrage [23]. Agricultural Products - **Protein Meal**: The macro - environment has increased disturbances, and the market is in a wide - range shock. It is recommended to be cautious due to the large fundamental pressure. For single - side trading, there may be pressure but also potential for phased increases. MRM09 spread narrowing positions should be exited, and seagull put options should be exited [26][27]. - **Sugar**: International sugar prices are expected to be slightly stronger in the short term, while domestic sugar prices are expected to have limited downward space. It is recommended to be long on the single - side, wait and see for arbitrage, and sell put options [30][31]. - **Oilseeds and Oils**: Oils may be in a high - level shock in the short term due to geopolitical disturbances. It is recommended to wait and see for both arbitrage and options [34][35]. - **Corn/Corn Starch**: The outer - market 05 corn is expected to be bullish on dips, and the 05 corn is expected to be in a high - level shock. It is recommended to widen the 05 corn - starch spread on dips and wait and see for options [38][39]. - **Hogs**: The supply pressure is increasing, and the price is generally declining. It is recommended to short the near - month contracts on the single - side, wait and see for arbitrage, and use seagull put options [40][41]. - **Peanuts**: The spot price is strong, and the futures price is in a strong shock. It is recommended to go long on the 05 peanuts on dips, wait and see for arbitrage, and sell pk605 - P - 7700 options [43][44]. - **Eggs**: The enthusiasm for culling hens has decreased, and the egg price is mainly stable. It is recommended to short the June contracts on the single - side, wait and see for arbitrage and options [46][47]. - **Apples**: The inventory reduction speed is acceptable, and the price of high - quality apples is firm. It is recommended to exit and wait and see for the May contracts on the single - side, and wait and see for arbitrage and options [49][50]. - **Cotton - Cotton Yarn**: The cotton price has strong support at the bottom and is expected to be in a slightly strong shock. It is recommended to go long on dips for the single - side, wait and see for arbitrage and options [53][54]. Ferrous Metals - **Steel**: The raw materials provide support, and the steel price is in a shock. It is recommended to maintain a slightly strong shock on the single - side, short the coil - coal ratio and hold the short position of the coil - rebar spread for arbitrage, and wait and see for options [56][57]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The price fluctuates greatly, and it is necessary to pay attention to the development of geopolitical conflicts. It is recommended to go long on dips on the single - side, wait and see for arbitrage and options [58][59]. - **Iron Ore**: The supply disturbances have increased, and it is recommended that spot enterprises conduct hedging at high prices. For arbitrage, enter the 5/9 spread reverse arbitrage at high levels, and wait and see for options [61][62]. - **Ferroalloys**: The price is in a high - level shock affected by the crude oil price. It is recommended to be in a high - level shock on the single - side, wait and see for arbitrage, and sell out - of - the - money put options [64][65]. Non - Ferrous Metals - **Gold and Silver**: Geopolitical escalation and the Fed's hawkish stance have put double pressure on gold and silver. It is recommended that conservative investors wait and see, and aggressive investors short cautiously with a shock - bearish idea. Wait and see for arbitrage and options [67][69]. - **Platinum and Palladium**: The rise in oil prices has broken the Fed's bottom - support expectation, and the precious metal prices are under pressure. It is recommended to wait and see for platinum and palladium, and wait for low - buying opportunities for platinum. Wait for the low - level long - position opportunity of the platinum - palladium spread for arbitrage, and wait and see for options [70][71]. - **Copper**: The price has broken through the key support, and the center of gravity has moved down. It is recommended to be bearish on the single - side, wait and see for arbitrage and options [73][74]. - **Alumina**: Concerns about the supply of bauxite in Guinea have increased the price volatility. It is recommended to be in a high - level shock on the single - side, buy spot delivery products and short futures for arbitrage, and wait and see for options [76][78]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: Geopolitical risks and macro - concerns have jointly increased the price shock. It is recommended to be in a shock on the single - side, wait and see for arbitrage and options [80][81]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: The macro and micro factors have not resonated, and it fluctuates with the aluminum price. It is recommended to fluctuate with the aluminum price on the single - side, wait and see for arbitrage and options [84]. - **Zinc**: It is necessary to pay attention to the macro and capital sentiment. The price may be in a low - level shock in the short term. It is recommended to go long on dips after stabilization, wait and see for arbitrage and options [85][86]. - **Lead**: It is recommended to wait and see for now [89][90]. - **Nickel**: The short - term price is dominated by the macro - environment. It is recommended to wait for the macro - environment to stabilize before considering going long lightly [91][92]. - **Stainless Steel**: It is supported by cost and follows the nickel price. It is recommended to wait for the macro - environment to stabilize on the single - side, wait and see for arbitrage [94][95]. - **Industrial Silicon**: It is in a range shock. It is recommended to conduct range operations on the single - side, and there is no suggestion for arbitrage and options [96]. - **Polysilicon**: It is in a short - term shock and waiting for policy guidance. It is recommended to wait and see on the single - side, and there is no suggestion for arbitrage and options [98][100]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: Domestic and foreign problems have led to a weakening of the lithium price. It is recommended to be in a downward - moving shock range on the single - side, wait and see for arbitrage and options [101][103]. - **Tin**: The geopolitical conflict has escalated, and the tin price remains weak. It is recommended to be bearish on the single - side, wait and see for options [104][105]. Shipping and Carbon Emissions - **Container Shipping**: The Iran conflict has escalated, and both sides have started to attack oil and gas facilities. It is recommended to wait and see on the single - side, and wait and see for arbitrage [106][108]. - **Dry Bulk Freight**: The situation between the US and Iran is still unclear, and it is necessary to pay attention to the weather in Western Australia. The long - term impact of the conflict on the dry - bulk shipping chain needs to be observed. There is no specific trading strategy provided [109][112]. - **Carbon Emissions**: The Chinese carbon market is still in the off - season, and the EU carbon price has fallen to an 11 - month low. The short - term carbon price in the EU is expected to be in a weak shock, and the long - term trend depends on official policies, geopolitical events, and the global energy supply recovery progress. For the Chinese carbon market, the second - batch quota transfer mechanism is expected to boost market activity. There is no specific trading strategy provided [113][116]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: The Middle - East situation has escalated again. It is recommended to be bullish on the single - side, wait and see for arbitrage and options [120][121]. - **Asphalt**: The main refineries have increased production cuts, and concerns about raw materials continue. It is recommended to be in a strong shock on the single - side, wait and see for arbitrage and options [124][125]. - **Fuel Oil**: Geopolitical drivers continue, and the cost is in a high - level shock. It is recommended to be in a high - level shock on the single - side, wait and see for arbitrage and options [127][128]. - **LPG**: It has risen sharply following oil and gas. It is recommended to be in a high - level shock on the single - side, wait and see for arbitrage and options [129][130]. - **Natural Gas**: Geopolitical risks continue, and the upward trend remains unchanged. For international LNG, it is recommended to wait and see; for US HH, the short - term market is relatively loose, and the subsequent trend needs to be observed. There is no specific trading strategy provided [132][134]. - **PX & PTA**: There is an expected unplanned reduction in supply, and PTA enterprises may be forced to cut production. It is recommended to be in a slightly strong shock on the single - side, wait and see for arbitrage and options [135][136]. - **BZ & EB**: The raw material supply is short, and the fundamentals are good. It is recommended to be in a slightly strong shock on the single - side, wait and see for arbitrage and options [140][141]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The Middle - East conflict has intensified. It is recommended to be in a slightly strong shock on the single - side, wait and see for arbitrage and options [142][144]. - **Short - Fiber**: The sales are light. It is recommended to be in a slightly strong shock on the single - side, wait and see for arbitrage and options [145][146]. - **Bottle Chips**: The inventory is continuously decreasing. It is recommended to be in a slightly strong shock on the single - side, wait and see for arbitrage and options [148][149]. - **Propylene**: The supply is tight. It is recommended to be in a slightly strong shock on the single - side, wait and see for arbitrage and options [150][151]. - **Plastic PP**: The inventory of PP enterprises has increased month - on - month, and the year - on - year decline has narrowed. It is recommended to hold long positions in the L 2605 and PP 2605 contracts on the single - side, hold short positions in the SPC L2605&PP2605 spread, and wait and see for options [152][153]. - **Caustic Soda**: It is weak. It is recommended to be in a shock on the single - side, wait and see for arbitrage and options [155][156]. - **PVC**: It is rising in a shock. It is recommended to go long on dips on the single - side, wait and see for arbitrage and options [158][159]. - **Soda Ash**: It is in a wide - range shock with a weakening direction. It is recommended to be in a wide - range shock with a weakening direction on the single - side, wait and see for arbitrage, and sell call options [160][161]. - **Glass**: It is in a wide - range shock with a weakening direction. It is recommended to be in a wide - range shock with a weakening direction on the single - side, close the short - glass long - soda - ash arbitrage position, and wait and see for options [162][163]. - **Methanol**: It has led the rise significantly. It is recommended to hold long positions on the single - side, wait and see for arbitrage, and sell put options on dips [165][166]. - **Urea**: It is mainly in a shock. It is recommended to be in a shock on the single - side, wait and see for arbitrage and options [168][169]. - **Pulp**: The inventory is high, and the pulp price is weakly adjusted. It is recommended to go short on the single - side, wait and see for arbitrage, and sell SP2605 - P - 5000 options [170][172]. - **Offset Printing Paper**: The market purchases based on rigid demand. It is recommended to go short on the single - side, wait and see for arbitrage, and sell OP2604 - C - 4200 options [174][175]. - **Log**: The import cost has increased. It is recommended to go long on dips on the single - side, wait and see for arbitrage and options [176][177]. - **Natural Rubber and 20 - grade Rubber**: The NR warehouse receipts are continuously decreasing. It is recommended to wait and see for the RU 05 and NR 05 contracts on the single - side, hold the short position of the NR2605 - RU2605 spread, and wait and see for options [180][182]. - **Butadiene Rubber**: The monthly average price of crude oil has continued to reach new highs. It is recommended to go long on the BR 05 contract on dips, hold the short position of the BR2505 - RU2505 spread, and wait and see for options [184][186].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - The report presents the daily arbitrage data of various futures varieties on March 19, 2026, including power coal, energy chemicals, black metals, non-ferrous metals, agricultural products, and stock index futures, mainly showing the basis, inter-period, and inter-variety data of each commodity [1][6][22][28][39][52]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Power Coal - The basis and inter-period spreads (5 - 1 month, 9 - 1 month, 9 - 5 month) of power coal from March 12 to March 18, 2026, are presented. The basis was -72.4 yuan/ton on March 12 and 13, and -78.4 yuan/ton from March 16 to 18. The inter - period spreads were all 0.0 yuan/ton during this period [1][2]. 3.2 Energy Chemicals Energy Commodities - The basis data of fuel oil, INE crude oil, and crude oil/asphalt from March 12 to March 18, 2026, are provided, along with the price ratio of INE crude oil [8]. Chemical Commodities - **Basis**: The basis of rubber, methanol, PTA, LLDPE, V (PVC), and PP from March 12 to March 18, 2026, is shown. For example, the basis of rubber was 275 yuan/ton on March 12 and -150 yuan/ton on March 18 [10]. - **Inter - period**: The inter - period spreads (5 - 1 month, 9 - 1 month, 9 - 5 month) of rubber, methanol, PTA, LLDPE, PVC, PP, and ethylene glycol are given. For instance, the 5 - 1 month spread of rubber was -600 yuan/ton [12]. - **Inter - variety**: The inter - variety spreads of LLDPE - PVC, LLDPE - PP, PP - PVC, and PP - 3*methanol from March 12 to March 18, 2026, are presented. For example, the LLDPE - PVC spread was 2657 yuan/ton on March 12 and 2696 yuan/ton on March 18 [12]. 3.3 Black Metals - **Inter - period**: The inter - period spreads (5 - 1 month, 9(10) - 1 month, 9(10) - 5 month) of rebar, iron ore, coke, and coking coal are provided. The 5 - 1 month spread of rebar was -50.0 yuan/ton [21]. - **Inter - variety**: The inter - variety spreads of rebar/iron ore, rebar/coke, coke/coking coal, and rebar - hot rolled coil from March 12 to March 18, 2026, are shown. For example, the rebar/iron ore ratio was 3.94 on March 12 and 3.88 on March 18 [21]. - **Basis**: The basis of rebar, iron ore, coke, and coking coal from March 12 to March 18, 2026, is presented. The basis of rebar was 110.0 yuan/ton on March 12 and 130.0 yuan/ton on March 18 [22]. 3.4 Non - Ferrous Metals Domestic Market - The domestic basis of copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, and tin from March 12 to March 18, 2026, is provided. The basis of copper was -710 yuan/ton on March 12 and 340 yuan/ton on March 18 [31]. London Market - The LME spreads, Shanghai - London ratios, CIF prices, domestic spot prices, and import profit and loss of copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, and tin on March 18, 2026, are presented. For example, the LME spread of copper was (107.22) and the import profit was 726.49 yuan/ton [34]. 3.5 Agricultural Products - **Basis**: The basis of soybeans No.1, soybeans No.2, soybean meal, soybean oil, and corn from March 12 to March 18, 2026, is shown. The basis of soybeans No.1 was -269 yuan/ton on March 12 and -276 yuan/ton on March 18 [40]. - **Inter - period**: The inter - period spreads of soybeans No.1, soybeans No.2, soybean meal, soybean oil, rapeseed meal, rapeseed oil, palm oil, corn, sugar, and cotton are given. The 5 - 1 month spread of soybeans No.1 was 66 yuan/ton [40]. - **Inter - variety**: The inter - variety spreads of soybeans No.1/corn, soybeans No.2/corn, soybean oil/soybean meal, soybean meal - rapeseed meal, soybean oil - palm oil, rapeseed oil - soybean oil, and corn - corn starch from March 12 to March 18, 2026, are presented. For example, the soybeans No.1/corn ratio was 2.03 on March 12 and 2.06 on March 18 [40]. 3.6 Stock Index Futures - **Basis**: The basis of CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 from March 12 to March 18, 2026, is provided [52]. - **Inter - period**: The inter - period spreads (next month - current month, next quarter - current quarter) of CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 are given. For example, the next month - current month spread of CSI 300 was -19.6 [50].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Macro Finance**: Bullish on stock indices in the medium to long term, suggesting buying on dips; expect government bonds to move in a range [1][5][6] - **Black Building Materials**: Short - term trading for coking coal, range trading for rebar, selling out - of - the - money call options for glass [1][9][10][11] - **Non - ferrous Metals**: Hold short positions moderately or stay on the sidelines for copper at high prices; strengthen observation for aluminum; stay on the sidelines for nickel; range trading for tin; expect gold, silver, and lithium carbonate to move in a range [1][14][17][18][20][21][22][23] - **Energy and Chemicals**: PVC, caustic soda, styrene, and polyolefins are expected to be strongly volatile; short at high prices for soda ash; buy on dips for rubber without chasing highs; range trading for urea and methanol [1][25][27][28][30][31][32][33] - **Cotton Textile Industry Chain**: Cotton and cotton yarn are expected to be strongly volatile; apples and jujubes are expected to move in a range [1][37][39][40] - **Agriculture and Animal Husbandry**: Adopt a bearish strategy on rebounds for May and July live hog contracts, treat September contracts with a range - bound view; eggs are expected to move in a range; corn is expected to move in a short - term range; be cautious about chasing long positions in the May soybean meal contract; suggest rolling long on oils and gradually reducing previous long positions [1][42][43][45][46][48] Core Views - The ongoing Middle East conflict, especially the war between the US and Iran, has a significant impact on the global financial and commodity markets. It has led to fluctuations in oil prices, inflation expectations, and interest - rate expectations, affecting the prices of various assets [5][14][15][21][22] - Different industries and commodities have their own supply - demand fundamentals. For example, in the non - ferrous metals industry, the supply and demand of copper, aluminum, and other metals are affected by factors such as mine supply, production capacity changes, and downstream demand [14][15][17] - In the agricultural and animal husbandry sectors, factors such as production capacity, consumption seasons, and policies have a significant impact on prices. For example, the supply and demand of live hogs and eggs are affected by production capacity changes and consumption seasons [42][43] Summary by Directory Macro Finance - **Stock Indices**: Pressured in the short term due to the Middle East conflict and the Fed's hawkish stance, but bullish in the medium to long term, suggesting buying on dips [5] - **Government Bonds**: Expected to move in a range due to factors such as changes in social financing, loan data, and geopolitical situations [6] Black Building Materials - **Coking Coal**: After the Spring Festival, the coking coal market is weak and stable. Short - term trading is recommended as downstream demand recovers slowly [9] - **Rebar**: The rebar futures price is expected to be strongly volatile in the short term. The price is below the electric - furnace off - peak electricity cost, and the inventory is expected to peak and decline [10] - **Glass**: The downstream replenishment is basically completed, and the market is expected to be in high - level range - bound operation. Consider selling out - of - the - money call options [11][12] Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The copper price is in a high - level range and is under pressure. Pay close attention to the duration and intensity of the war, global economic recession expectations, and inventory drawdown progress. Suggest holding short positions moderately or staying on the sidelines at high prices [14][15] - **Aluminum**: The price is in a high - level range. Strengthen observation as the Middle East situation has a two - sided impact on the price, and the supply crisis is still fermenting [17] - **Nickel**: The price is expected to move in a range. Suggest staying on the sidelines as the supply and demand are complex, and the price lacks a clear upward driver [18][19] - **Tin**: The price is expected to continue to be strongly volatile in a wide range. Range trading is recommended, and pay attention to supply resumption and downstream demand recovery [20] - **Silver and Gold**: The prices are expected to continue to be in range - bound adjustment. Suggest staying on the sidelines and trading cautiously, and pay attention to the progress of the Iranian situation and the Fed's March interest - rate decision [21][22] - **Lithium Carbonate**: The price is expected to continue to move in a range as the supply and demand are both increasing, and pay attention to export bans and mining - end disturbances [24] Energy and Chemicals - **PVC**: The supply - demand situation is still weak in reality, but there are short - term opportunities due to factors such as low valuation and export tax rebates. It is expected to be strongly volatile in the short term [25][26] - **Caustic Soda**: The price is expected to be strongly volatile in the short term. The demand from alumina production provides marginal support, and exports are expected to increase [27] - **Styrene**: The price is expected to be strongly volatile. The cost is supported by rising oil prices, and the inventory pressure is relieved [28][29] - **Polyolefins**: The price is expected to be strongly volatile due to cost support and marginal improvement in supply and demand [30] - **Rubber**: The price is expected to be strongly volatile. There is a game between synthetic rubber support and inventory pressure. Do not chase highs, and wait for adjustment opportunities [31] - **Urea**: The price is expected to be strongly volatile in a range. The supply is still at a relatively high level, and the demand from agricultural fertilization and compound fertilizers is increasing [32] - **Methanol**: The price is expected to be strongly volatile in a range. The war in Iran may cause a supply gap, and the demand from the olefin industry is relatively stable [33][34] - **Soda Ash**: The supply is expected to remain at a high level, and the inventory pressure is increasing. Suggest shorting at high prices [35] Cotton Textile Industry Chain - **Cotton and Cotton Yarn**: The price is expected to be strongly volatile. The global cotton supply is increasing, and the domestic consumption is strong. The rise in chemical fiber prices has a positive impact [37][38] - **Apples**: The market is generally stable, with a two - tiered trading situation. The prices in different regions vary [39] - **Jujubes**: The price is expected to move in a range. The raw - material acquisition in the production area is based on quality, and the trading is relatively light [40] Agriculture and Animal Husbandry - **Live Hogs**: The price is in the process of bottom - building. Adopt a bearish strategy on rebounds for May and July contracts, and treat September contracts with a range - bound view. Pay attention to policy support and production - capacity reduction [42] - **Eggs**: The price is expected to move in a range. The supply pressure is gradually relieved, and the demand is picking up. The futures price is at a premium [43][44] - **Corn**: The price is expected to move in a short - term range. The supply and demand are relatively balanced, and pay attention to factors such as grain circulation and wheat substitution [45] - **Soybean Meal**: The price is in a low - level range. Be cautious about chasing long positions in the May contract. Pay attention to factors such as soybean arrivals and oil prices [46][47] - **Oils**: The price is in a high - level range. Suggest rolling long on oils and gradually reducing previous long positions. Different oil varieties have different performance due to supply - demand differences [48][49][50][51]

行业 锌期货日报 日期 2026 年 3 月 19 日 021-60635740 期货从业资格号：F3075681 研究员：张平 021-60635734 zhangping@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3015713 021-60635729 yufeifei@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3025190 有色金属研究团队 研究员：彭婧霖 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 研究员：余菲菲 请阅读正文后的声明 数据来源： Wind ，建信期货研究发展部 美联储按兵不动几无悬念，市场更为关注美联储对能源价格推升通胀影响 的评估。内外显性库存走高，基本面支撑较弱，伦锌下探 3180 美元/吨，沪锌 日内延续下行，跌幅靠前，主力收于 23325 元/吨，跌 545，跌幅 2.28%，放量 减仓，持仓减 7830 手至 65911 手。18 日 LME 库存减少 350 吨至 118025 吨， 其中新加坡录减 200，高雄减 150，但 0-3C 走阔至 48.17，消费显疲弱。本周 国内随着价格重心回落，现货成交明显好转，现货贴水收 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 棉花早报——2026年3月19日 大越期货投资咨询部 王明伟 从业资格证号：F0283029 投资咨询证号： Z0010442 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 前日回顾 2 每日提示 3 4 5 今日关注 基本面数据 持仓数据 棉花： 棉花现货市场价 数据来源：大越整理 1、基本面：ICAC：26/27全球消费2500万吨，产量2480万吨。2026新疆棉种植面积调控，预 计可能减幅超10%。USDA3月报：25/26年度产量2634.3万吨，消费2581.7万吨，期末库存 1663.1万吨。海关：1-2月纺织品服装出口504.5亿美元，同比增长17.6%。1-2月份我国棉花 进口37万吨，同比增加41%；棉纱进口29万吨，同比增加8万吨。农村部3月25/26年度：产量 664万吨，进口140万吨，消费760万吨，期末库存829万吨。偏多。 ...