Core Viewpoint - China Aluminum (601600.SH) reported a revenue of 116.39 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 5.12% [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders reached 7.07 billion yuan, with a slight increase of 0.81% year-on-year [1] - The company plans to distribute an interim dividend of 0.123 yuan per share, totaling approximately 2.11 billion yuan, which represents about 30% of the net profit attributable to shareholders for the same period [1] Financial Performance - Revenue for the first half of 2025: 116.39 billion yuan, up 5.12% year-on-year [1] - Net profit attributable to shareholders: 7.07 billion yuan, up 0.81% year-on-year [1] Dividend Distribution - Proposed interim dividend: 0.123 yuan per share (including tax) [1] - Total dividend amount: approximately 2.11 billion yuan (including tax) [1] - Dividend as a percentage of net profit: about 30% [1]

Group 1 - The company announced the appointment of Yu Meng as the vice president [1] - The decision was made during the seventh meeting of the eleventh board of directors [1] - The term of the new vice president will last until the end of the current board's term [1]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 27.2 yuan [2][8]. Core Views - The company's Q2 performance exceeded expectations, with revenue of 14.44 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 15%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 401 million yuan, up 5% year-on-year [2][3]. - The company is making breakthroughs in new fields, particularly in the production of non-heat materials, which have been validated in the market and are expected to drive future growth [8]. - The report adjusts the company's net profit forecasts for 2025-2027, reflecting a growth rate of 12% for 2025 and 11% for 2027, with a corresponding PE ratio adjustment from 16.5 to 22 times [8]. Financial Summary - For 2024A, total revenue is projected at 27.25 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 16.6%. The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to be 707 million yuan, with a growth rate of 16.8% [4][9]. - The company’s total assets are estimated to reach 21.43 billion yuan in 2024, with a debt-to-equity ratio of 151.3% [9]. - The report highlights a significant increase in cash flow from operating activities in 2025, projected at 522 million yuan, compared to a negative cash flow in 2024 [9].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings were provided in the reports. 2. Core Views Aluminum - Short - term aluminum prices are expected to fluctuate. The market sentiment is cautiously optimistic due to improved macro - atmosphere and peak - season expectations. The main contract reference range is 20400 - 21000 yuan/ton. However, if demand doesn't improve and capital sentiment cools, the price may fall [1]. Alumina - The overall supply of alumina is in an oversupply pattern. Although cost and some factory overhauls provide support, the spot and futures prices are under pressure. The main contract reference range is 3000 - 3300 yuan/ton, and short - term downward and upward spaces are limited [1]. Aluminum Alloy - The fundamentals of the aluminum alloy market are marginally improving. Spot prices are expected to remain relatively firm, and the price difference between aluminum alloy and aluminum is expected to narrow. The main contract reference range is 20000 - 20600 yuan/ton [3]. Copper - Copper prices are at least expected to remain volatile. The price may enter a new upward cycle when the commodity and financial attributes of copper resonate. The main contract reference range is 78500 - 80500 yuan/ton [4]. Zinc - Zinc prices are expected to be volatile and slightly stronger in the short term due to improved interest - rate cut expectations. The main contract reference range is 22000 - 23000 yuan/ton. Upward continuous rebound requires better - than - expected demand, and downward breakthrough needs ultra - strong TC and continuous inventory accumulation [8]. Nickel - The short - term nickel price is expected to be adjusted within a range. The main contract reference range is 118000 - 126000 yuan/ton. The market has cost support, but the medium - term supply is expected to be loose [10]. Stainless Steel - The stainless - steel market is expected to have short - term range - bound fluctuations. The main contract reference range is 12600 - 13400 yuan/ton. The market is still restricted by weak spot demand, and the cost support remains [12]. Lithium Carbonate - The short - term price of lithium carbonate is expected to fluctuate around 80,000 yuan/ton. The supply - side news is not fully confirmed, and the improved fundamentals provide support for the price [14]. Tin - Tin prices have risen due to the dovish signal from the Fed. If the supply from Myanmar recovers smoothly, a short - selling strategy can be considered; if the supply recovery is less than expected, the price is expected to remain high and volatile [17]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Price and Spread - **Aluminum**: SMM A00 aluminum price is 20780 yuan/ton, with a change of 0 yuan/ton; the spread between 2509 - 2510 is 25 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan/ton [1]. - **Alumina**: The average price of alumina in Shandong is 3180 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton (- 0.31%) [1]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: SMM ADC12 aluminum alloy price is 20550 yuan/ton, unchanged; the spread between 2511 - 2512 is - 30 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton [3]. - **Copper**: SMM 1 electrolytic copper price is 79585 yuan/ton, up 190 yuan/ton (0.24%); the spread between 2509 - 2510 is 40 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan/ton [4]. - **Zinc**: SMM 0 zinc ingot price is 22280 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan/ton (- 0.13%); the spread between 2509 - 2510 is 15 yuan/ton, up 35 yuan/ton [8]. - **Nickel**: SMM 1 electrolytic nickel price is 121450 yuan/ton, up 200 yuan/ton (0.16%); the spread between 2510 - 2511 is - 110 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan/ton [10]. - **Stainless Steel**: The price of 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 coil) is 13100 yuan/ton, unchanged; the spread between 2510 - 2511 is - 70 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton [12]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate average price is 81700 yuan/ton, down 800 yuan/ton (- 0.97%); the spread between 2509 - 2511 is 240 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan/ton [14]. - **Tin**: SMM 1 tin price is 270000 yuan/ton, up 300 yuan/ton (0.11%); the spread between 2509 - 2510 is - 340 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton [17]. Fundamental Data - **Aluminum**: In July, aluminum production was 372.14 million tons, up 3.11% month - on - month; the aluminum profile production rate was 50.5%, unchanged month - on - month [1]. - **Alumina**: In July, alumina production was 765.02 million tons, up 5.40% month - on - month; the daily average production exceeded 260,000 tons, a record high [1]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: In July, the production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots was 62.5 million tons, up 1.63% month - on - month; the production of primary aluminum alloy ingots was 26.6 million tons, up 4.31% month - on - month [3]. - **Copper**: In July, electrolytic copper production was 117.43 million tons, up 3.47% month - on - month; the import volume was 29.69 million tons, down 1.20% month - on - month [4]. - **Zinc**: In July, refined zinc production was 60.28 million tons, up 3.03% month - on - month; the import volume was 1.79 million tons, down 50.35% month - on - month [8]. - **Nickel**: In July, the production of refined nickel products was 31,800 tons, down 10.04% month - on - month; the import volume was 19,157 tons, up 116.90% month - on - month [10]. - **Stainless Steel**: In July, the production of 300 - series stainless - steel crude steel in China was 171.33 million tons, down 3.83% month - on - month; the import volume was 7.3 million tons, down 33.30% month - on - month [12]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: In July, lithium carbonate production was 81,530 tons, up 4.41% month - on - month; the demand was 96,100 tons, up 2.50% month - on - month [14]. - **Tin**: In July, tin ore imports were 10,278 tons, down 13.71% month - on - month; SMM refined tin production was 15,940 tons, up 15.42% month - on - month [17].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly mention an overall industry investment rating. However, for individual metals, the ratings include: - Copper: Expected to be in a "震荡" (oscillation) pattern [5][6] - Alumina: Expected to be "震荡偏弱" (oscillating weakly) [6] - Aluminum: Expected to be in an "震荡" (oscillation) range [8][9] - Aluminum Alloy: Expected to have short - term "震荡" (oscillation) and potential upward movement for ADC12 and ADC12 - A00 in the future [9][10] - Zinc: Expected to be "震荡偏弱" (oscillating weakly) in the medium - to - long term [13] - Lead: Expected to be in an "震荡" (oscillation) state [14][15][16] - Nickel: Expected to be "偏强" (strong) in the short term and "空头离场" (short - sellers exit) in the medium - to - long term [19] - Stainless Steel: Expected to be in an "震荡" (oscillation) range in the short term [21] - Tin: Expected to be in an "震荡" (oscillation) state, with potential increased volatility in August [22][23] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - **Macro - level**: Recent economic data are mixed. European investor and consumer confidence indices in August are weak, but US August existing - home sales and August Euro - US manufacturing PMI flash values are better than expected. Powell's dovish remarks at the Jackson Hole Annual Meeting have kept the US dollar weak, which has boosted base metals to some extent. However, Trump's new "tariff stick" on August 26 has cooled investors' optimism, causing base metals to rise first and then fall [1]. - **Supply - demand level**: The reverse invoicing problem has tightened scrap supply, which has disrupted the supply side, but the terminal demand outlook is weak. In the short - to - medium term, the weak US dollar supports prices, but the demand outlook is weak. Whether the inventory will start to decline again in the peak season in September remains to be observed. It is recommended to be cautious about short - selling copper and zinc at high prices. In the long term, the expectation of potential incremental stimulus policies in China still exists, and supply disruptions in copper, aluminum, and tin still exist, with an expectation of tightening supply - demand, which supports base metal prices [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1行情观点 - **Copper**: Powell's dovish speech has increased the probability of a Fed rate cut in September, boosting copper prices. The supply of copper ore and raw materials is still tight, and the risk of smelter production cuts has increased. Currently in the off - season of downstream demand, the inventory accumulation is not obvious. It is expected that copper prices will be supported in the short term due to low inventory. In the future, copper may show an oscillating pattern [5][6]. - **Alumina**: The smelter's operating capacity has recovered to a high level, the supply - demand balance shows an obvious surplus, and the inventory accumulation trend has expanded. The fundamentals are relatively weak. The spot price has accelerated its decline, and the futures price has significantly decreased to repair the basis. It is expected to be oscillating and under pressure in the future [6]. - **Aluminum**: The short - term US rate cut expectation has increased, and the US dollar index is weak. The domestic policy is in a vacuum period. The supply side has new production capacity coming on stream, and the operating capacity and utilization rate are at a high level. The demand side has an increasing expectation of improved orders as the peak season approaches, but the terminal consumption has not strengthened significantly. The inventory accumulation rhythm has been unstable. It is expected that aluminum prices will be in an oscillating range [8][9]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: The short - term supply - demand is weak. The cost side is strongly supported as scrap aluminum follows aluminum ingots. The supply side's off - season production has continued to decline, and some recycling aluminum plants have reduced or stopped production. The demand side is still in a strong off - season atmosphere, and downstream procurement is weak. The factory inventory has continued to decline, and the social inventory has increased. The price is expected to be in an oscillating range in the short term, and there is an expectation of an upward movement in the future for ADC12 and ADC12 - A00 [9][10]. - **Zinc**: The macro - level is negative due to the decline in black - series prices, although Powell's speech has put pressure on the US dollar. The short - term zinc ore supply has become looser, and smelters' profitability is good, with strong production willingness. The demand is in the traditional off - season, and the demand outlook is average. In the short term, zinc prices may be in a high - level oscillation, and in the medium - to - long term, they are expected to decline [13]. - **Lead**: The spot discount has slightly narrowed, the supply has slightly tightened due to the reduction in production by some recycling lead plants and transportation restrictions, and the demand has rebounded as some battery factories have ended their high - temperature holidays. It is expected that there will be a slight shortage of supply - demand this week, and the price will be in an oscillating state [14][15][16]. - **Nickel**: The market sentiment dominates the market, and the industrial fundamentals are marginally weakening. The raw material supply may become looser after the rainy season, and the intermediate product output has recovered. The inventory has accumulated significantly, and the price is under pressure. In the short term, nickel prices are expected to be strong due to the strong performance of the equity market, and short - sellers are expected to exit in the medium - to - long term [19]. - **Stainless Steel**: The nickel - iron price has rebounded, and the chromium - iron price has remained stable. The stainless - steel production has continued to decline, and the inventory pressure has been slightly relieved. It is necessary to pay attention to the realization of demand in the peak season. In the short term, it is expected to be in an oscillating range [21]. - **Tin**: The supply of tin ore is still tight, which strongly supports the bottom of tin prices. However, the terminal demand has weakened marginally in the second half of the year, and the inventory reduction is difficult. It is expected that tin prices will be in an oscillating state, and the volatility may increase in August [22][23]. 3.2行情监测 - The report only lists the names of various metals (copper, alumina, aluminum, aluminum alloy, zinc, lead, nickel, stainless steel, tin) under this section but does not provide specific monitoring content [25][39][51]. 3.3商品指数 - **综合指数**: The commodity index on August 26, 2025, was 2222.35, a decrease of 0.59%; the commodity 20 index was 2472.77，a decrease of 0.54%; the industrial products index was 2257.74, a decrease of 0.78% [138]. - **特色指数**: No specific content is provided [139]. - **板块指数**: The non - ferrous metals index on August 26, 2025, was 2377.52, with a daily decline of 0.65%, a 5 - day increase of 0.40%, a 1 - month decline of 0.49%, and a year - to - date increase of 3.00% [140].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - **Copper**: Overnight LME copper fluctuated higher, and domestic copper was slightly stronger. The US July durable goods orders initial value was -2.8% month - on - month, higher than expected and the previous value, but still in decline for the second consecutive month. Excluding transportation equipment, the orders increased by 3.8% year - on - year. LME, Comex, SHFE copper inventories all decreased. As the seasonal off - season nears its end, downstream orders are expected to pick up, and the low scrap copper production benefits refined copper substitution. The US may expand the key minerals list, which could re - evaluate copper resources. Although there are concerns about US copper inventory impacting overseas, domestic post - off - season demand may drive LME de - stocking and copper price stabilization, but the September peak season may be weaker than the first half of the year [1]. - **Aluminum**: Alumina fluctuated weakly, while Shanghai aluminum and aluminum alloy were slightly stronger. Alumina prices fell, and the spot premium of aluminum ingots reached par. The resumption of alumina production increased, and the expectation of oversupply pressured prices. However, cost support strengthened due to factors like restricted ore mining. The inflow of domestic aluminum ingots decreased, and downstream stocking increased. Whether it's a cyclical inflection point needs further confirmation [1][2]. - **Nickel**: LME and Shanghai nickel prices rose. LME and domestic inventories decreased. The Indonesian government shortened the mineral and coal production period. Nickel ore prices were stable. Stainless steel supply increased, with some inventory pressure, but the cost of nickel - iron rose. Ternary demand in the new energy sector was strengthening, and the supply of raw materials was relatively tight. Overall, the fundamentals changed little, and prices were still in a volatile range [2][3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Copper**: Overnight LME copper and domestic copper showed different trends. Macro data in the US had mixed impacts. Inventory decreased in multiple markets. Demand is expected to improve as the off - season ends. The potential expansion of the US key minerals list may affect copper value. There are concerns about US copper inventory, but domestic demand may drive price recovery [1]. - **Aluminum**: Alumina was weak, while other aluminum products were slightly stronger. Price, inventory, and supply - demand factors all influenced the market. The balance between supply resumption and cost support determined the price trend. The change in aluminum ingot inventory needs further observation [1][2]. - **Nickel**: Prices rose, and inventories decreased. Policy changes in Indonesia, stable nickel ore prices, and different trends in stainless steel and new energy sectors all contributed to the overall market situation, with prices remaining volatile [2][3]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - **Copper**: The price of flat - water copper increased, and the premium decreased. The price of scrap copper and the refined - scrap price difference also changed. Inventory decreased in LME and SHFE. Other indicators such as LME0 - 3 premium and import profit also showed fluctuations [4]. - **Lead**: The average price of 1 lead and related products increased. Lead concentrate prices and processing fees had some changes. LME and SHFE inventories decreased [4]. - **Aluminum**: The price of aluminum in different regions and the premium changed. Raw material prices and downstream processing fees were relatively stable. LME and SHFE inventories showed different trends, and the social inventory of alumina decreased [5]. - **Nickel**: The price of electrolytic nickel increased slightly. Nickel ore, nickel - iron, and stainless steel prices were mostly stable. The prices of new energy - related products decreased. LME and SHFE inventories decreased, and the social inventory of nickel increased [5]. - **Zinc**: The main settlement price decreased slightly. LME and SHFE inventories changed in different directions, and the social inventory increased. Other indicators such as premiums and processing fees remained stable [6]. - **Tin**: The main settlement price increased slightly. LME and SHFE inventories decreased. The price of tin concentrate decreased [6]. 3.3 Chart Analysis - **Spot Premium**: Charts show the historical trends of spot premiums for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [8][10][15]. - **SHFE Near - Far Month Spread**: Charts display the historical trends of SHFE near - far month spreads for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2020 - 2025 [16][18][20]. - **LME Inventory**: Charts present the historical trends of LME inventories for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [22][24][26]. - **SHFE Inventory**: Charts show the historical trends of SHFE inventories for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [29][31][33]. - **Social Inventory**: Charts display the historical trends of social inventories for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, stainless steel, and 300 - series from 2019 - 2025 [35][37][39]. - **Smelting Profit**: Charts show the historical trends of copper concentrate index, copper processing fee, aluminum smelting profit, nickel - iron smelting cost, zinc smelting profit, and stainless steel 304 smelting profit rate from 2019 - 2025 [42][44][46]. 3.4 Team Introduction - The research team consists of Zhan Dapeng, Wang Heng, and Zhu Xi. Zhan Dapeng has extensive experience in commodity research and has won multiple awards. Wang Heng focuses on aluminum - silicon research, and Zhu Xi focuses on lithium - nickel research, both providing valuable reports and services to clients [49][50].

Group 1: Overall Market Sentiment - Market risk preference remained high this week despite weak domestic economic and financial data in July [1] Group 2: Copper - Downstream orders showed support around 7.8 this week, and the scrap-to-refined substitution effect continued to appear [1] - In August, under the full supply pattern, a small inventory build-up is expected, but the market may focus more on the tight balance pattern after the off-season [1] Group 3: Aluminum - Supply increased slightly from January to June, with aluminum ingot imports contributing to the growth [2] - August demand is expected to be a seasonal off-season, with a possible slight improvement in the middle and late stages [2] - Aluminum exports improved month-on-month, while photovoltaic demand declined, and overseas demand dropped significantly [2] - In August, a small inventory build-up is expected [2] Group 4: Zinc - This week, zinc prices fluctuated widely [5] - On the supply side, domestic TC increased with difficulty, and some scattered orders even decreased, while imported TC further increased [5] - In August, the increase in smelting output was further realized, and the overseas mine output in the second quarter exceeded expectations [5] - On the demand side, domestic demand was seasonally weak, with limited growth but some resilience [5] - Overseas, European demand was average, but some smelters faced production resistance due to processing fees [5] - Domestically, social inventories fluctuated and increased, while overseas LME inventories decreased rapidly [5] - In the short term, zinc prices are expected to rebound supported by interest rate cut expectations and domestic commodity sentiment [5] - In the medium and long term, a short position is recommended [5] - For the domestic and overseas spread, a long domestic-short overseas position can be maintained [5] - For the monthly spread, a long near-month-short far-month position can be considered [5] Group 5: Nickel - On the supply side, pure nickel production remained at a high level [6] - On the demand side, overall demand was weak, and the premium remained stable recently [6] - On the inventory side, domestic and overseas nickel plate inventories remained unchanged [6] - In the short term, the fundamental situation is average, and the macro situation is mainly about anti-involution policy games [6] - The opportunity to shrink the nickel-stainless steel price ratio can continue to be monitored [6] Group 6: Stainless Steel - On the supply side, some steel mills cut production passively, and some in the north were affected by the military parade [7] - On the demand side, demand was mainly for rigid needs, and some replenishment increased due to the macro atmosphere [7] - In terms of costs, nickel iron and chromium iron prices remained stable [7] - In terms of inventory, inventories in Xijiao and Foshan decreased slightly, and exchange warehouse receipts remained unchanged [7] - Fundamentally, the situation remained weak, and in the short term, the macro situation followed anti-involution expectations [7] - Attention should be paid to the future policy direction [8] Group 7: Lead - This week, lead prices fluctuated [9] - On the supply side, the scrap volume was weak year-on-year, and the overall supply of waste batteries was tight due to the expansion of recycling plants [9] - Under low profits, recycled lead maintained low production, and demand had no obvious boost [9] - From April to July, the concentrate production increased, but the supply was in short supply due to smelting profits, and the TC quotation declined chaotically [9] - On the demand side, the battery finished product inventory was high, and the battery production rate increased this week, but the peak season was not prosperous [9] - The refined-scrap price difference was +25, and recycled lead shipments resisted price declines [9] - LME registered warehouse receipts increased by 10,000 tons [9] - In July and August, there were expectations of a peak season, and orders generally improved, but the destocking and lead ingot purchasing efforts of terminal consumers were weak this week [9] - This week, the willingness of downstream battery factories to receive goods rebounded, but the volume of receiving warehouse receipts was only in the thousands of tons, with limited strength [9] - The exchange inventory reached a historical high of 70,000 tons; when the price declined, recycled lead supported the price, and the refined-scrap price difference was +25 [9] - Lead ingot spot was at a discount of 25, mainly maintaining long-term orders [9] - In August, primary lead supply is expected to increase, recycled lead production will decrease, and demand will improve slightly, but it is still expected that the inventory will remain at a high level [9] - It is expected that lead prices will remain in a low-level fluctuation next week [9] Group 8: Tin - This week, tin prices fluctuated widely [12] - On the supply side, the processing fee for tin ore was at a low level, and some domestic smelters cut production [12] - In early September, Yunnan smelters will start maintenance [12] - Overseas, the Wa State symposium released some signals of resuming production, but short-term recruitment difficulties and long equipment recovery cycles restricted large-scale exports before October [12] - African tin ore will have an increase in the long term, but the short-term increase is unstable [12] - There may be a risk of inspecting mine caves in Indonesia [12] - On the demand side, the elasticity of solder was limited, and there were expectations of a peak season for terminal electronic consumption, but the decline in photovoltaic growth was expected to be strong [12] - Domestic inventory decreased slightly in a fluctuating manner; overseas consumption was strong, and LME inventory was at a low level [12] - On the spot side, small-brand tin ingots were still in short supply, and most of the exchange inventory was high-priced Yunzi brand, and downstream had no strong willingness to pick up the goods [12] - Domestically, the short-term supply and demand situation remained weak, and attention should be paid to the possible short-term supply-demand mismatch from September to October and the impact of interest rate cut expectations on non-ferrous metals as a whole [12] - In the short term, it is recommended to wait and see; in the medium and long term, buy near the cost line [12] Group 9: Industrial Silicon - This week, the start-up rate of leading enterprises in Xinjiang was 67%, 32% in the west and 35% in the east, with a total increase of 8 units month-on-month, and the resumption of production was stable but still below market expectations [15] - The start-up rates in Sichuan and Yunnan increased slightly, and the monthly output was close to 120,000 tons [15] - In August, the supply-demand balance was still in a state of slight inventory reduction, and the core of the supply-demand balance was the rhythm and amplitude of Hoshine's resumption of production [15] - The unexpected production cut of leading enterprises had a significant marginal improvement effect on the supply-demand balance, and with the stable start-up of downstream silicone and polysilicon, the market's visible inventory decreased significantly [15] - The continuous high basis also led to the continuous cancellation of warehouse receipts [15] - In the short term, the resumption of production in the southwest and Hoshine continues to fall short of expectations, and the supply-demand balance in August is still slightly in short supply [15] - In the long term, the overcapacity of industrial silicon is still large, and the start-up rate is low [15] - Under the current cost curve structure, the potential start-up elasticity is high when the price reaches above 10,000 yuan, so the long-term outlook is still a cyclical bottom shock [15] Group 10: Lithium Carbonate - This week, the futures market fluctuated greatly due to the expected start-up of salt lakes and mica mines [17] - On the spot side, the peak season effect was obvious, the proportion of downstream supply decreased, the volume of scattered orders increased during the week, and the enthusiasm for replenishing at low prices was high [17] - The inquiry atmosphere was active, and the trading volume increased significantly compared with last week [17] - Since the level of spot available inventory was still high, the basis remained basically stable as a whole [17] - The basis of spodumene lithium carbonate was concentrated at 11,400 - 11,200 yuan, the basis of mica lithium carbonate was concentrated at 11,500 - 11,200 yuan, and the basis of old ore materials (March - May) was concentrated at 11,800 - 11,100 yuan [17] - The core contradiction of lithium carbonate is that under the background of long-term overcapacity and an unbalanced supply-demand pattern, the resource side faces periodic compliance disturbances [17] - With the approaching of the downstream seasonal peak season, the monthly balance after the gradual production cut of the smelter corresponding to CATL's mine has turned to continuous inventory reduction, and the performance of the peak season demand has a greater impact on the inventory reduction amplitude [17] - Therefore, in the current high macro sentiment, the price elasticity is large when the supply-side disturbance speculation is realized, and the downward support is strong [17]

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a significant decline in revenue and net profit for the first half of 2025, while showing improvement in cash flow from operating activities. Financial Performance - The company's total revenue for the first half of 2025 was 44.559 billion yuan, ranking 6th among disclosed peers, a decrease of 8.037 billion yuan compared to the same period last year, representing a year-on-year decline of 15.28% [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders was -0.217 billion yuan, ranking 40th among peers, a decrease of 0.229 billion yuan compared to the same period last year, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 1859.82% [1] - Operating cash flow showed a net inflow of 5.278 billion yuan, ranking 3rd among peers, an increase of 4.294 billion yuan compared to the same period last year, achieving a 3-year consecutive increase, with a year-on-year rise of 436.79% [1] Financial Ratios - The latest debt-to-asset ratio was 64.35%, ranking 35th among peers, a decrease of 0.82 percentage points from the previous quarter, but an increase of 0.21 percentage points compared to the same period last year [3] - The latest gross profit margin was 5.55%, ranking 29th among peers, a decrease of 0.76 percentage points from the previous quarter, but an increase of 0.73 percentage points compared to the same period last year, achieving a 2-year consecutive increase [3] - The latest return on equity (ROE) was -1.41%, ranking 37th among peers, a decrease of 1.49 percentage points compared to the same period last year [3] Earnings Per Share and Turnover Ratios - The diluted earnings per share were -0.03 yuan, ranking 37th among peers, a decrease of 0.03 yuan compared to the same period last year, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 1550.00% [3] - The latest total asset turnover ratio was 0.88 times, ranking 10th among peers, a decrease of 0.19 times compared to the same period last year, representing a year-on-year decline of 18.00% [3] - The latest inventory turnover ratio was 2.64 times, ranking 27th among peers, a decrease of 0.57 times compared to the same period last year, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 17.82% [3] Shareholder Structure - The number of shareholders was 129,900, with the top ten shareholders holding 5.637 billion shares, accounting for 76.13% of the total share capital [3] - The largest shareholder, CITIC Guoan Industrial Group Co., Ltd., held 30.39% of the shares [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - Amidst factors such as the decline of the US dollar index and the dovish stance of the Fed Chair increasing the probability of a September interest rate cut, the overall sentiment in the non - ferrous metals market is affected. Although the optimistic sentiment in the equity market has faded, the overall prices of non - ferrous metals are expected to show a relatively strong and volatile trend. However, different metals have their own supply - demand characteristics, which will also have an impact on their price trends [1][3]. Summary by Metal Copper - **Price Performance**: LME copper rose 0.38% to $9,846/ton, and the Shanghai copper main contract reached 79,420 yuan/ton. - **Inventory**: LME copper inventory decreased by 975 to 155,000 tons, and the Shanghai Futures Exchange copper warehouse receipts decreased by 0.1 to 23,000 tons. - **Market Situation**: The supply of copper raw materials remains tight. Although the US copper tariff has led to an increase in copper supply outside the US, the overall supply surplus is expected to be small, and copper prices may fluctuate strongly. The reference range for the Shanghai copper main contract is 78,800 - 80,000 yuan/ton, and for LME copper 3M is $9,750 - 9,950/ton [1]. Aluminum - **Price Performance**: LME aluminum rose 0.63% to $2,638/ton, and the Shanghai aluminum main contract reached 20,880 yuan/ton. - **Inventory**: The Shanghai aluminum weighted contract's open interest increased by 0.4 to 594,000 lots, and the futures warehouse receipts decreased to 56,000 tons. The domestic three - place aluminum ingot inventory increased by 0.5 to 464,000 tons. - **Market Situation**: With the Fed's dovish signal and the approaching peak season, aluminum prices are expected to fluctuate strongly. The reference range for the domestic main contract is 20,750 - 21,000 yuan/ton, and for LME aluminum 3M is $2,610 - 2,660/ton [3]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Price Performance**: The AD2511 contract fell 0.32% to 20,265 yuan/ton. - **Inventory**: The domestic three - place recycled aluminum alloy ingot inventory increased by 0.04 to 32,400 tons. - **Market Situation**: As the downstream moves from the off - season to the peak season, costs are strongly supportive, and market activity is increasing. However, the large difference between futures and spot prices will put pressure on the nearby contracts [5]. Lead - **Price Performance**: The Shanghai lead index rose 0.38% to 16,924 yuan/ton. - **Inventory**: The Shanghai Futures Exchange lead ingot futures inventory was 58,200 tons, and the domestic social inventory decreased slightly to 63,200 tons. - **Market Situation**: The supply side shows marginal growth, and the downstream battery enterprise's operating rate has recovered rapidly. In the short term, lead prices are supported, but in the medium term, there is still a risk of decline [7]. Zinc - **Price Performance**: The Shanghai zinc index fell 0.52% to 22,272 yuan/ton. - **Inventory**: The Shanghai Futures Exchange zinc ingot futures inventory was 36,400 tons, and the domestic social inventory decreased slightly to 132,900 tons. - **Market Situation**: The zinc mine inventory is rising, and the refined zinc import is decreasing. Although the medium - term industry surplus situation remains unchanged, the dovish stance of the Fed strengthens the support for zinc prices, and it is difficult for zinc prices to fall significantly in the short term [9][10]. Tin - **Price Performance**: The Shanghai tin main contract closed at 269,760 yuan/ton, down 0.05%. - **Inventory**: The Shanghai Futures Exchange futures registered warehouse receipts increased by 120 to 7,152 tons. - **Market Situation**: The supply of tin is low, and the demand is weak in the off - season. Tin prices are expected to fluctuate. The reference range for domestic tin prices is 250,000 - 275,000 yuan/ton, and for LME tin prices is $31,000 - 34,000/ton [11]. Nickel - **Price Performance**: The Shanghai nickel main contract closed at 120,370 yuan/ton, up 0.05%. - **Market Situation**: The macro - environment is positive, but the refined nickel supply surplus situation remains unchanged, and the stainless steel demand is weak. Nickel prices are expected to oscillate. The reference range for the Shanghai nickel main contract this week is 115,000 - 128,000 yuan/ton, and for LME nickel 3M is $14,500 - 16,500/ton [12][13]. Lithium Carbonate - **Price Performance**: The Five - Mineral Steel Union lithium carbonate spot index was 79,332 yuan, unchanged from the previous day. - **Market Situation**: The supply of lithium mica has decreased, and the bottom support during the peak season has increased. The reference range for the Guangzhou Futures Exchange lithium carbonate 2511 contract is 77,000 - 82,500 yuan/ton [15]. Alumina - **Price Performance**: On August 26, the alumina index fell 3.47% to 3,063 yuan/ton. - **Inventory**: The futures warehouse receipts on Tuesday were 84,600 tons, an increase of 0.15 from the previous day. - **Market Situation**: After a significant decline in the short - term alumina futures price, the downside space is limited. It is recommended to wait and see. The reference range for the domestic main contract AO2601 is 3,100 - 3,500 yuan/ton [17]. Stainless Steel - **Price Performance**: The stainless steel main contract closed at 12,840 yuan/ton, down 0.31%. - **Inventory**: The futures inventory was 101,925 tons, a decrease of 16,715 from the previous day, and the social inventory increased by 1.19% to 1,091,700 tons. - **Market Situation**: The short - term downstream demand is insufficient, but with the approaching of the peak season, the demand is expected to increase [19].

Report Overview - The report provides cross - market, cross - period, spot - futures, and cross - variety arbitrage tracking data for various non - ferrous metals on August 27, 2025 [1] Cross - Market Arbitrage Tracking Copper - Spot price: domestic 79,550, LME 9,720, ratio 8.21; March price: domestic 79,180, LME 9,805, ratio 8.11; equilibrium ratio for spot import 8.14; spot export profit - 660.06 [1] Zinc - Spot price: domestic 22,280, LME 2,794, ratio 7.97; March price: domestic 22,265, LME 2,799, ratio 6.04; equilibrium ratio for spot import 8.63; spot import profit - 1,820.78 [1] Aluminum - Spot price: domestic 20,780, LME 2,617, ratio 7.94; March price: domestic 20,705, LME 2,614, ratio 7.93; equilibrium ratio for spot import 8.43; spot import profit - 1,287.62 [1] Nickel - Spot price: domestic 119,350, LME 14,885, ratio 8.02; equilibrium ratio for spot import 8.22; spot import profit - 1,806.58 [1] Lead - Spot price: domestic 16,750, LME 1,965, ratio 8.55; March price: domestic 16,920, LME 2,004, ratio 11.15; equilibrium ratio for spot import 8.82; spot import profit - 531.05 [3] Cross - Period Arbitrage Tracking Copper - Spreads for次月 - 现货月, 三月 - 现货月, 四月 - 现货月, 五月 - 现货月 are - 500, - 510, - 530, - 550 respectively; theoretical spreads are 500, 899, 1306, 1714 [4] Zinc - Spreads for次月 - 现货月, 三月 - 现货月, 四月 - 现货月, 五月 - 现货月 are - 105, - 110, - 105, - 110 respectively; theoretical spreads are 215, 336, 457, 578 [4] Aluminum - Spreads for次月 - 现货月, 三月 - 现货月, 四月 - 现货月, 五月 - 现货月 are - 70, - 80, - 115, - 150 respectively; theoretical spreads are 215, 331, 447, 563 [4] Lead - Spreads for次月 - 现货月, 三月 - 现货月, 四月 - 现货月, 五月 - 现货月 are 85, 75, 85, 90 respectively; theoretical spreads are 209, 314, 420, 525 [4] Nickel - Spreads for次月 - 现货月, 三月 - 现货月, 四月 - 现货月, 五月 - 现货月 are 300, 410, 630, 870 respectively [4] Tin - 5 - 1 spread 640; theoretical spread 5591 [4] Spot - Futures Arbitrage Tracking Copper - Spreads for当月合约 - 现货, 次月合约 - 现货 are 140, - 360 respectively; theoretical spreads are 366, 734 [4] Zinc - Spreads for当月合约 - 现货, 次月合约 - 现货 are 95, - 10 respectively; theoretical spreads are 146, 276 [4] Lead - Spreads for当月合约 - 现货, 次月合约 - 现货 are 95, 180 respectively; theoretical spreads are 157, 269 [5] Cross - Variety Arbitrage Tracking - Ratios for copper/zinc, copper/aluminum, copper/lead, aluminum/zinc, aluminum/lead, lead/zinc in Shanghai (three - continuous) are 3.56, 3.82, 4.68, 0.93, 1.22, 0.76 respectively; in London (three - continuous) are 3.50, 3.73, 4.95, 0.94, 1.33, 0.71 respectively [5]