Group 1: Market Performance - In March, global asset performance ranked as follows: commodities (2.62%) > global bonds (0.61%) > RMB (0.30%) > 0% > USD (-3.16%) > global stocks (-4.45%) [2] - The "Terrific 10" index of Chinese tech stocks increased by 58% from 2024 to March 2025, outperforming the "Magnificent 7" index of US tech stocks, which rose by 41% [3] - The A-share margin balance reached 2.55% of the A-share circulating market value, the highest since 2017 [5] Group 2: Economic Indicators - The correlation coefficient between the Russell 2000 index and the NFIB small business confidence index was 0.77 from 2016 to September 2024, indicating a close relationship [3] - Since October 2024, the NFIB small business confidence index has risen while the Russell 2000 index has underperformed the S&P 500 index [3] - The A-share industry rotation speed reached the 94th percentile of historical levels over the past 10 years as of March 2025 [8] Group 3: Investment Insights - 58% of global fund managers expect gold to be the best-performing asset in a scenario of comprehensive trade conflicts, followed by long-term US bonds (16%) and short-term US bonds (9%) [4] - The valuation of the "Magnificent 7" in the US shows a negative correlation with the actual yield of 10-year Japanese government bonds, indicating concerns over high valuations and liquidity [4] - The price of rebar has decreased by 13.8% since 2023, while copper prices have increased by 4.2%, reflecting differing demand in construction and manufacturing sectors [6]

Core Points - The A-share market indices closed mixed, with the China Securities Hong Kong-Shenzhen Connect Infrastructure Index at 1461.15 points [1] - The index has seen a 0.52% increase over the past month, a 2.31% decrease over the past three months, and a year-to-date decline of 2.31% [1] - The index is based on the comprehensive index samples of the Hong Kong-Shenzhen Connect and the China Securities 500 Index, reflecting the overall performance of securities listed in the three regions [1] Index Holdings - The top ten weighted stocks in the index include China Mobile (11.6%), China Yangtze Power (8.26%), China Telecom (2.96%), CLP Holdings (2.9%), China State Construction (2.66%), CK Hutchison Holdings (2.66%), China Mobile (2.35%), China Unicom (2.15%), China Nuclear Power (1.84%), and China Telecom (1.83%) [1] - The market share of the index holdings is distributed as follows: Shanghai Stock Exchange 50.81%, Hong Kong Stock Exchange 37.51%, and Shenzhen Stock Exchange 11.68% [1] Industry Composition - The industry composition of the index holdings shows that utilities account for 43.11%, industrials for 26.78%, communication services for 26.78%, and energy for 3.32% [2] - The index samples are adjusted biannually, with adjustments occurring on the next trading day after the second Friday of June and December [2] - Weight factors are generally fixed until the next scheduled adjustment, with special circumstances allowing for temporary adjustments [2]

李嘉诚旗下长和最新公告：电讯业务或分拆上市，市场反应不一 近日，李嘉诚旗下的长和集团再次成为市场关注的焦点。 3月31日，长和集团在港交所发布了一则重要公告，称集团不时接获建议并正在探索及评估可供考虑的机会，以提升股东的长远价值。其中，包括与本公司 全球电讯业务之资产及运营相关的可能交易，甚至不排除分拆上市的可能性。 这一消息立即引发了市场的广泛关注和热议。长和集团作为全球知名的综合性企业，其业务涵盖电信、基建、房地产等多个行业，任何战略调整都可能对市 场和投资者产生重大影响。 长和集团全球电讯业务的"家底" 长和集团的电讯业务主要包含欧洲"3"集团在六个欧洲国家业务，以及在联交所上市的和记电讯香港控股（和电香港）的66.09%的股权。2024年，电讯业务 实现收入883.71亿港元，同比增长2%，占整体营收的19%。该业务不仅是长和集团的重要收入来源，更是其盈利的重要支柱。 据知情人士透露，长和集团已开始准备剥离其全球电信资产并在伦敦上市。分拆后的实体将托管长和在欧洲、香港和东南亚的电信业务，估值可能在100亿 至150亿英镑（130亿至190亿美元）之间。这一计划若成功实施，将是过去几年规模最大的IPO之 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the characteristics of the fiscal situation at the beginning of the year, highlighting a "low income" and "high deficit" environment, which may lead to a "technology stock-friendly" fiscal policy throughout the year [3][4][5]. Group 1: Low Income - The public fiscal revenue experienced a rare negative growth of -1.6% at the beginning of the year, with a budget target of 0.1% [4][12]. - The revenue from land sales continued to decline significantly by -15.7%, contributing to a double-digit drop in secondary account revenue of -10.7% [4][12]. - If the income side remains under pressure, it may force incremental policies that further elevate the "high deficit" and support "medium expenditure," reinforcing the "technology stock-friendly" fiscal approach [4][12]. Group 2: High Deficit - The public fiscal deficit recorded in January-February was 124 billion, marking the first occurrence of a narrow deficit at the start of the year in nearly 30 years [5][15]. - The broad fiscal deficit reached 621.7 billion, the highest for the same period in recent years, indicating a strong subjective willingness to stimulate the economy [5][15]. - The dual deficit pattern suggests that the fiscal policy continues to support risk appetite, reflecting an increase in local government activity since October of the previous year [6][15][17]. Group 3: Medium Expenditure - The growth rate of broad fiscal expenditure was 2.9%, slightly above the previous year's rate of 2.7%, indicating limited fiscal strength [7][21]. - Expenditure focused on technology (+10.6%) and social welfare (social security +6.7%, education +7.7%), while infrastructure spending was under pressure, with declines in community and agricultural spending [7][21]. - The budget arrangements for the year show that growth rates for technology and social welfare expenditures are significantly higher than the nominal GDP growth rate, while infrastructure growth is only around 1% [7][21]. Group 4: Debt Issuance - The issuance of deficit bonds has been rapid, indicating a fiscal preference for supporting consumption, with net financing of government bonds reaching nearly 1.5 trillion in Q1, the highest for the same period in recent years [9][22]. - In contrast, the issuance of new special bonds has been slow, suggesting that investment may be accelerated in the second quarter, with plans for significant special bond issuance already disclosed [9][23]. - The issuance of long-term special bonds is expected to start in the second quarter, potentially leading to more substantial physical investment [9][23]. Group 5: Fiscal Data Review - The fiscal revenue for January-February showed a rare negative growth of -1.6%, with significant contributions from sectors like rail and ship manufacturing, and computer technology [25][29]. - The expenditure growth rate for January-February was 3.4%, with a focus on technology and social welfare, reflecting the characteristics of the annual budget [46]. - The broad fiscal situation remains supported by a new high in deficits, with land sales continuing to be weak, indicating a challenging fiscal environment ahead [51][52].

Summary of Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call discusses the economic outlook for the first quarter of 2025, focusing on GDP growth, consumption, infrastructure investment, and the real estate market [2][3]. Key Points and Arguments 1. **Economic Growth Forecast**: The GDP growth rate for Q1 2025 is expected to exceed 5%, supported by strong performance in consumption, infrastructure, and real estate investments, despite weak net exports [2][3]. 2. **Consumption Trends**: Consumption growth for January and February was 4.0%, lower than the expected 4.5%, but higher than the previous year's 3.5% and Q4's 3.8%. The "trade-in" policy implemented on January 20 is anticipated to boost consumption growth to around 4.5% [2][3]. 3. **Infrastructure Investment**: Both broad and narrow definitions of infrastructure investment are expected to exceed last year's levels, with significant increases in water conservancy and municipal projects due to enhanced spending willingness from local governments [3]. 4. **Real Estate Market**: Although the real estate market shows signs of marginal weakness, it has improved compared to the previous year. A potential easing of regulations, such as lowering loan rates, could stabilize its impact on the macro economy [3]. 5. **Monetary Policy**: The current monetary policy is in a moderately tight balance aimed at preventing financial risks, with no significant adjustments expected in the short term. The central bank emphasizes that monetary policy should be viewed as a state rather than a single action [4][5]. 6. **Fiscal Policy**: An estimated 3 trillion yuan in new funds is expected this year, including special government bonds and increased deficit rates. There is a need to expand the range of subsidies to stimulate consumption [5]. 7. **Stock Market Dynamics**: The recent shift in stock market style is attributed to the continuous rise in risk-free interest rates, leading to a rotation from consumer sectors to high-dividend and stable financial sectors [6][10]. 8. **Impact of Overseas Markets**: Adjustments in overseas markets have influenced the risk appetite for Hong Kong and A-shares, with trading volumes indicating a need for stronger upward momentum in the short term [9][10]. 9. **Structural Rotation in Markets**: The market is experiencing structural rotation, with funds moving towards sectors that have not seen significant increases, such as high-dividend stocks, coal, and banking [10][11]. 10. **Future Market Drivers**: For the market to rise further, it requires support from other sectors, including real estate and consumer-related stocks, to create a broader upward trend [12]. Additional Important Insights - **Short-term Interest Rates**: The rise in short-term interest rates may be nearing its end, with the monetary policy currently in a phase of total easing observation [13]. - **Banking Sector Support**: The central bank's recent operations aim to lower costs for banks, indicating a continued focus on supporting the banking sector despite expectations of gradual easing [15]. - **Market Expectations**: The current yield curve is flat, with expectations of potential steepening, but the exact form of this change remains uncertain [19]. This summary encapsulates the key insights from the conference call, highlighting the economic outlook, market dynamics, and policy implications for the upcoming period.

Group 1: Bond Market Overview - The bond market sentiment has eased, with yields initially rising and then declining due to stable economic data released on Monday, indicating that the economy is expected to maintain rapid growth in Q1 [1] - Industrial production growth for January-February reached 5.9%, while service sector production grew by 5.6%, suggesting a potential for over 5% growth in Q1 [1] - Despite strong production, demand appears weak, with real estate sales showing a marginal decline and industrial sales rates hitting a record low for January-February, indicating increasing supply-demand imbalances [1] Group 2: Policy and Liquidity - The central bank has maintained a hawkish stance since the beginning of the year, focusing on the risks associated with rapid interest rate declines and currency depreciation, which has led to yield inversions [2] - The liquidity situation has improved slightly in March compared to February, with the central bank's increased interventions indicating a marginal change in its stance [1][2] Group 3: Stock Market Performance - The stock market experienced a pullback, with all major indices declining, particularly the ChiNext index which fell over 3%, attributed to a significant drop on Friday [3] - The overall trading volume in the A-share market decreased to an average of 1.55 trillion, reflecting a weakening market sentiment [3] - Value stocks outperformed in a weak market environment, while sectors such as oil, steel, and building materials showed better performance amidst a chaotic market structure [3] Group 4: Economic Indicators and Global Context - Economic indicators for January-February show a mixed picture, with strong industrial production and infrastructure investment but weak consumer demand and declining import growth [4] - The Federal Reserve has decided to maintain interest rates and slow down its balance sheet reduction, while Japan's central bank continues to keep rates unchanged, indicating a cautious global economic outlook [4]

证券研究报告 目 录 CATALOGUE 生产投资向好，地产成交回暖 地产 消费 价格 生产&基建 出行 04 05 01 02 03 00 政策 中观数据周报 投资要点 KEY POINTS 1 • 国内政策：专项债收储工作规范明确；发展消费金融提振消费。中央层面，国务院常务会议讨论通过《国务院2025年重点工作分工方 案》，李强总理在国务院第八次全体会议上强调更加注重加大政策力度和激发市场力量良性互动、协同发力。实施好更加积极有为的宏 观政策。产业层面，《促进环保装备制造业高质量发展若干意见》印发。金融财税层面，自然资源部就做好运用地方政府专项债券支持 土地储备有关工作出台通知，在发债要求、申报审核等方面做出明确要求。国家金融监督管理总局要求金融机构大力发展消费金融，助 力提振消费。 • 生产&基建：高频指标呈现向好态势。本周高炉、螺纹钢、涤纶长丝开工率持续提高，PTA、沥青开工率反弹，动力煤日耗相对稳定，但 建筑资金到位率仍处于低位。总体上看生产、基建相关高频指标有向好趋势。 • 地产：新房、二手房成交回暖。本周30城新房成交面积季节性回升，一线城市回升明显。9城二手房成交面积短暂回落后转向上行，体现 ...

如何看待 1-2 月经济数据？ 事件：2025 年 1-2 月工业增加值同比 5.9%（前值 6.2%），社零同比 4.0%（前值 3.7%）；1-2 月固投同比 4.1%（前值 3.2%），地产投资同 比-9.8%（前值-10.6%），广义基建投资同比 10.0%（前值 9.2%），制 造业投资同比 9.0%（前值 9.2%）。 核心观点：1-2 月经济开局平稳、有强有弱、分化明显，最大亮点可谓 地产销售跌幅明显收窄、属于"小阳春"。往后看，经济走势的不确定 性较大，一是地产销售的持续性有待进一步观察；二是两会政策将逐 步落地，有望对经济基本面构成有利支撑；三是特朗普关税的扰动大， 对我国出口的冲击可能进一步显现。 宏观点评 证券研究报告 | 宏观研究 gszqdatemark 2025 03 17 年 月 日 1、整体看，1-2 月经济基本平稳、有强有弱、分化明显，结构上延续 "供给偏强、需求偏弱"，其中：偏强的是，1-2 月工业生产、基建投 资、制造业投资增速维持高位，消费、地产投资环比改善，地产销售跌 幅明显收窄则可谓最大的亮点；偏弱的是，1-2 月 CPI、PPI 整体延续 低位，进口增速大幅走低， ...

Economic Overview - In January-February 2025, both industrial and service sector production achieved rapid growth, but domestic demand remains weak and external demand has declined, indicating a need for further optimization of the supply-demand structure [1][2] - The industrial added value growth rate for January-February was 5.9%, significantly exceeding the market expectation of 5.1%, driven mainly by the transportation equipment, metal products, and equipment manufacturing sectors [3][4] - Investment growth in January-February significantly surpassed market expectations, primarily due to strong infrastructure investment performance, while manufacturing investment showed resilience and real estate investment's decline narrowed [14][25] Production Insights - The industrial added value growth was supported by "promoting consumption" and "grabbing exports," with manufacturing sector performance particularly strong in January-February [3][4] - The service sector also maintained a high growth rate, with modern service industries showing particularly good performance [3][4] - However, high-frequency data and tariff impacts suggest that both industrial and service sectors may face weakening pressures in the future [3][4] Investment Analysis - Total investment, infrastructure investment, manufacturing investment, and real estate development investment in January-February were 4.1%, 9.9%, 9.0%, and -9.8% respectively, showing significant improvements compared to the same period last year [14][25] - The strong performance of narrow infrastructure investment was attributed to the proactive commencement of major projects post-Spring Festival and good progress in the issuance of special bond funds [14][25] - Manufacturing investment is expected to improve in the second quarter of 2025, driven by the continuation of equipment renewal policies and marginal improvements in PPI [14][25] Consumption Trends - In January-February, the total retail sales of consumer goods reached 837.31 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 4.0%, slightly below the market expectation of 4.5% [25] - The growth rate of commodity retail was recorded at 3.9%, while catering revenue growth increased to 4.3%, reflecting improved consumption during the Spring Festival [25] - Future consumption support is anticipated from the recovery of housing prices and stock markets, increased social security income, and the continuation of "old-for-new" policies [25]

Investment Rating - The report indicates a stable outlook for the economy, with a focus on policy support and external demand as key drivers for growth [2][3]. Core Insights - The overall economic recovery is still reliant on policy measures and external demand, with internal dynamics such as consumer spending and private investment needing improvement [3][4]. - The production sector shows steady performance, with industrial value-added growth at 5.9% year-on-year for January-February 2025, slightly lower than December 2024's 6.2% [8][10]. - Consumer spending is recovering, with retail sales growth of 4.0% year-on-year in January-February 2025, up from 3.7% in December 2024 [17][21]. - Investment is showing marginal improvement, with fixed asset investment growth at 4.1% year-on-year for January-February 2025, compared to 3.2% for the entire previous year [24][25]. Summary by Sections 1. Production: Steady Performance - Industrial value-added growth for January-February 2025 is 5.9%, with a month-on-month increase of 0.51% in February [8][10]. - Export-oriented sectors like transportation equipment and automotive show the highest growth rates, while real estate-related sectors remain subdued due to slow downstream demand [10][12]. 2. Consumption: Bright Performance in Services - Social retail sales grew by 4.0% year-on-year in January-February 2025, higher than December 2024's 3.7% [17][21]. - Service retail sales increased by 4.9%, although this is a decline from December's 6.2% [17][21]. - Online consumption shows a significant recovery, with a year-on-year growth of 5.7% in January-February 2025, compared to 1.5% in December 2024 [21][22]. 3. Investment: Marginal Improvement - Fixed asset investment growth is at 4.1% year-on-year for January-February 2025, an increase from 3.2% in the previous year [24][25]. - Real estate investment shows a year-on-year decline of 9.8%, while manufacturing and broad infrastructure investments grow at 9.0% and 10.0%, respectively [25][26]. - The improvement in broad infrastructure investment is primarily driven by high growth in electricity and heat supply investments, which increased by 25.4% [26][27].