Group 1 - The article highlights that gold has become the largest reserve asset globally, surpassing the value of U.S. Treasury securities held overseas, with a value of $3.93 trillion compared to $3.88 trillion for U.S. debt [1] - The macroeconomic environment is supportive of precious metals, with easing inflation pressures and expectations of interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve, which are expected to sustain the long-term upward trend of gold prices [2][19] - The supply of silver remains tight, with industrial demand, particularly from the photovoltaic sector, driving investment interest, while platinum demand is also expected to rise due to its use in hybrid vehicles and hydrogen energy [2][19] Group 2 - Lithium carbonate contracts continue to reach new highs, with strong terminal demand and a weekly production increase of 259 tons to 22,420 tons, despite anticipated declines in the production of ternary materials and lithium iron phosphate in January 2026 [3][23] - The social inventory of lithium carbonate has decreased by 168 tons to 109,605 tons, indicating a potential for upward price movement despite short-term price fluctuations [3][24] - The rubber market is experiencing price stability due to supply constraints and steady tire production, with expectations of a strong performance in rubber prices [4][16] Group 3 - The restructuring of China National Petroleum Corporation and China Aviation Oil Group is approved by the State Council, indicating a trend towards strategic and professional consolidation among state-owned enterprises [8] - The U.S. government is intervening in the financial market by purchasing $200 billion in mortgage-backed securities to lower mortgage rates, which is seen as a form of quantitative easing [6]

Core Insights - The analysis highlights the significant impact of "U.S. fiscal expansion" and "AI capital expenditure growth" on the rise of non-ferrous and precious metals, with U.S. fiscal policies playing a crucial role in supporting economic growth during the current economic cycle [1][2] Group 1: Market Trends - The global macroeconomic landscape is evolving, leading to a transformation in demand for commodities, particularly in the non-ferrous and precious metals sectors [1] - AI-related capital expenditures from major tech companies like Microsoft, Google, and Amazon are projected to reach hundreds of billions to over a trillion dollars, creating new demand for metals such as copper and aluminum [1] Group 2: Domestic Economic Outlook - The domestic economy is expected to continue its recovery, with the Producer Price Index (PPI) likely turning positive after the third quarter of 2026 [2] - There is a notable increase in the export value added, indicating resilience in industrial upgrades [2] Group 3: Key Divergences - Four key cognitive divergences are highlighted: 1. The paradox of capacity clearance, where industries like electrolytic aluminum and lithium processing are expanding despite losses, delaying industry clearance [2] 2. The validation of AI narratives, questioning whether current capital expenditures are overextending future investment potential and if global labor productivity can significantly improve due to AI [2] 3. The U.S. designating copper and silver as critical minerals, leading to increased trade barriers and supply tightness [2] 4. The potential slowdown in the "decarbonization consensus" among emerging Asian economies, which may affect the demand for related commodities [2] Group 4: Future Projections - The analysis draws parallels to the historical combination of "fiscal expansion + de-globalization" starting in the 1970s, suggesting that a similar environment could lead to a significant bull market in commodities [2] - Investment strategies should focus on the AI-driven and fiscal-related themes within the non-ferrous and precious metals sectors while remaining cautious of monetary policy shifts and geopolitical events that could create market volatility [2]

Group 1: Oil Market - Crude oil prices increased as traders assessed multiple geopolitical risks that could lead to premiums, while also evaluating U.S. controls on Venezuelan oil [2][14] - WTI crude oil rose by 3.2%, settling at $57.76 per barrel, with prices continuing to climb post-settlement [15] - Brent crude oil for March delivery settled up 3.4% at $61.99 per barrel [16] Group 2: Base Metals - Copper prices fell, with LME copper down 1.39% to $12,720.5 per ton, as the dollar reached a two-week high [6][18] - A recent study by S&P Global indicated that the competition in artificial intelligence and increased defense spending could exacerbate the anticipated copper supply shortage [5][17] Group 3: Precious Metals - Silver prices declined for the second consecutive day, with a potential sell-off of silver futures worth approximately $6.8 billion expected due to annual commodity index rebalancing [10][22] - Following a nearly 4% drop the previous day, silver saw a further decline of 5.5%, driven by passive tracking funds selling to match new index weight requirements [10][22] - Gold prices stabilized, with spot gold rising by 0.48% to $4,477.65 per ounce [12][23]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the anticipated negative impact on precious metals, particularly gold and silver, due to the annual rebalancing of the Bloomberg Commodity Index (BCOM), which is expected to lead to significant sell-offs in these commodities [1][3][5]. Group 1: BCOM Rebalancing Impact - The BCOM rebalancing is set to occur from January 9 to January 15, with a focus on adjusting the weights of various commodities based on trading volume and global production [5]. - Gold's weight in the BCOM is expected to decrease from 20.4% to 14.9%, while silver's weight will drop from 9.6% to 3.94%, indicating a substantial sell-off in these metals [3][5]. - The rebalancing will result in the largest supply increases for silver, aluminum, and gold, while demand increases will be most significant for WTI crude oil, natural gas, and low-sulfur diesel [5][6]. Group 2: Historical Context and Price Correlation - Historical data shows that significant weight changes in the BCOM have generally correlated with price movements of the respective commodities, with the exception of gold in the previous year, where a weight reduction coincided with a price increase [9]. - The article references past rebalancing events and their effects on commodity prices, highlighting that the adjustments often lead to similar directional price changes [8][9].

Market Performance - US stock indices opened lower, with the Dow Jones down 0.35%, S&P 500 down 0.10%, and Nasdaq down 0.20% [1] - Chinese concept stocks showed mixed performance, with the Nasdaq China Golden Dragon Index down 0.4%, Bilibili up over 3%, and Xpeng up over 1%, while Baidu, JD.com, and Pinduoduo fell over 1% [1] - Gold and silver stocks generally declined, with Hecla Mining down over 5% and Pan American Silver down over 3% [1] - Defense stocks performed strongly, with Lockheed Martin up over 6% and Raytheon Technologies up over 2% [1] Corporate News - The Ministry of Commerce of China stated that companies engaging in foreign investment and related activities must comply with Chinese laws and regulations, particularly regarding Meta's acquisition of Manus [2] - World Liberty Financial, co-founded by Donald Trump, is applying for a US banking license to expand its $3 billion stablecoin business [3] - Apple plans to introduce a 200-megapixel main camera in its iPhone by 2028, marking a significant upgrade from the current 48-megapixel camera [4] - Caterpillar announced an expanded partnership with Nvidia to enhance customer solutions and manufacturing systems through AI [5] - GSK's Bepirovirsen therapy for chronic hepatitis B has shown promising results in clinical trials, potentially leading to a functional cure [6] - McDonald's sold a property in Hong Kong for approximately HKD 119 million (USD 15.3 million), part of a larger strategy that has seen it sell six locations for a total of HKD 490 million [7] - A new study from Oxford University indicates that the effects of weight loss drugs diminish within two years after discontinuation [8][9] - Alibaba is committed to increasing investment in Taobao Flash Sales to achieve market leadership by 2026 [10] - Bawang Tea's potential Hong Kong listing is under consideration, but the company has stated there are currently no plans for an IPO [11]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In 2026, the equity market is expected to start a new upward wave in Q1, with a long - position overweight strategy for the stock index. The bond market may continue its weak performance at the beginning of 2026 but could have a rebound after the Spring Festival, with a short - position hedge before the Spring Festival and a long - position underweight after. Commodities should be structurally allocated, with long - position overweight on precious metals, non - ferrous metals, and new energy commodities, long - position standard allocation (timing) on black building materials and agricultural products, and short - position standard allocation on crude oil [4]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Review of the Performance of Major Asset Classes - **Equity Market**: In December 2025, the A - share market oscillated upward, switching back to the growth - oriented style. Most primary industry indices rose, with national defense, communications, non - ferrous metals, non - bank finance, and machinery leading the monthly gains [8][10]. - **Bond Market**: The performance of short - and long - term bonds diverged. Short - term Treasury yields declined while long - term yields increased, and the Treasury term spread widened significantly. By December 31, 2025, the 2 - year and 5 - year Treasury yields dropped to 1.3605% and 1.3830% respectively, while the 10 - year and 30 - year yields rose to 1.8473% and 2.2674% [13]. - **Commodities**: The prices of domestic commodity futures were differentiated, with precious metals leading the gains. As of December 28, 2025, the precious metals index soared 14.38%, the metal index rose 6.18%, the industrial products index increased 1.44%, and the agricultural products index slightly declined 0.59% [17]. 2. Outlook and Analysis of Major Asset Classes - **Macroeconomic Aspect**: Abroad, the probability of further interest rate cuts by the Fed may decrease. Domestically, the probability of interest rate cuts in Q1 2026 is low, but a reserve requirement ratio cut is still expected [19][28]. - **Equity Assets**: In the short - to - medium term, the cross - year market has started, and the equity market is expected to start a new upward wave in Q1 2026. In the long - term, the policy and liquidity environment in 2026 are favorable to the market [31][32]. - **Bond Assets**: The bond market may continue its weak performance at the beginning of 2026, with the upper limit of the 10 - year Treasury yield before the Spring Festival likely between 1.90% - 1.95%. After the Spring Festival, there may be an oversold rebound opportunity [35][36]. - **Commodities**: The differentiation pattern of commodities will continue. Crude oil may remain weak after a short - term rebound. Industrial metals may face supply - demand imbalance, and agricultural product prices may fluctuate more due to various factors. Precious metals may experience significant short - term fluctuations but maintain an upward long - term trend [37][38]. 3. Allocation Strategies for Major Asset Classes - **Domestic Stock Index**: In 2026, the equity market should be strategically allocated, with a long - position overweight in January. Focus on industries such as the AI industry chain, leading companies going global, industries with improved supply - demand relationships, and the industrialization of cutting - edge technologies [40]. - **Commodities**: Increase the weight of commodities in the asset allocation. Overweight precious metals, non - ferrous metals, and new energy commodities; standard - allocate black building materials and agricultural products (timing); and short - allocate crude oil [41][42]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Hedge with short positions before the Spring Festival and underweight long positions after the Spring Festival. The bond market will remain volatile in 2026 and should be under - allocated [43].

Group 1: Precious Metals Market - The precious metals sector has shown strong bullish momentum at the beginning of the year, with gold making a significant upward gap that has not been filled, serving as a springboard for further price increases [1][4] - Spot gold is making a strong push towards the psychological barrier of $4500 per ounce, driven by sudden fluctuations in geopolitical situations that have led to a surge in safe-haven investments in the commodity market [1][4] - Silver has outperformed gold, with a cumulative increase of over 10% since the beginning of the week, closing above the important level of $80 per ounce [4] Group 2: Industrial Metals - Industrial metals are also participating in the upward trend, with platinum and palladium rising in high correlation with silver [4] - Copper futures have reached a historical peak of $6 per pound, supported by expectations of global infrastructure and industrial recovery [4] Group 3: Energy Market - The energy market is experiencing a divergence in price trends, with Brent crude oil falling to around $60 per barrel, influenced by unexpected supply increases from Venezuela [2][4] - Major energy companies like Chevron have seen their stock prices quickly retreat after initial surges, indicating a cautious attitude from investors towards the oil sector [2][4] Group 4: Equity Market - The U.S. stock market shows high risk appetite, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average reaching historical highs and closing above 49,000 points [2][5] - The S&P 500 index has also set new records, while the semiconductor sector, particularly companies like SanDisk and Micron Technology, has seen significant gains of 28% and 10% respectively, indicating positive changes in demand within the semiconductor cycle [5] Group 5: Market Outlook - The market is closely monitoring upcoming economic data, including December ADP employment figures and ISM services PMI, to assess whether the U.S. economy can support current high valuations [3][5] - The current market environment is characterized by a coexistence of high returns and high volatility, prompting the need for strict risk control measures while pursuing opportunities in metal price rebounds and U.S. stock trends [3][5]

Core Viewpoint - The upcoming rebalancing of the Bloomberg Commodity Index (BCOM) is expected to negatively impact precious metals like gold and silver, while benefiting crude oil and other energy commodities [2][4]. Group 1: Market Predictions - Daniel Ghali from TD Securities predicted a potential 13% sell-off of open contracts in the COMEX silver market, leading to a significant drop in silver prices and ongoing liquidity issues [1]. - Hsueh from Deutsche Bank indicated that the rebalancing could result in a downward adjustment of gold's weight from 20.4% to 14.9%, and silver's weight from 9.6% to 3.94% [2][3]. Group 2: Rebalancing Details - The BCOM rebalancing will occur from January 9 to January 15, 2024, and will not be completed in a single day [5]. - The largest supply impact from the rebalancing is expected to come from silver, aluminum, and gold, while the largest demand impact will be seen in WTI crude oil, natural gas, and low-sulfur diesel [5]. Group 3: Historical Context - Historical data shows that significant weight changes in the BCOM have generally correlated with price movements of the respective commodities, with the exception of gold in the previous year [8]. - The estimated impact of a 2.4 million ounces gold sell-off could lead to a price decrease of 2.5% to 3.0%, depending on the analysis method used [7].

Metal Market - Domestic base metals collectively declined, with all falling over 1%. Nickel led the drop with a 6.14% decrease, while copper, aluminum, and lead fell over 2% with copper down 2.76%, aluminum down 2.89%, and lead down 2.01% [1] - Lithium carbonate rose by 2.46%, while industrial silicon fell by 4.53%. Polycrystalline silicon hit a limit down with a 9% drop, priced at 53,610 yuan/ton [1][4] - In the black metal sector, stainless steel fell by 0.98% and iron ore by 0.37%, while other varieties saw slight increases, with rebar and hot-rolled coil both rising under 1% [1] - Precious metals saw declines, with COMEX gold down 0.48% and silver down 2.27%. Domestic gold fell by 0.73% and silver by 5.9% [1][2] Macro Environment - The central bank conducted a 99 billion yuan reverse repurchase operation today, with a bid amount of 99 billion yuan and a fixed interest rate of 1.40%, unchanged from previous operations [5] - The U.S. dollar index decreased by 0.04% to 98.70, with recent employment data indicating a drop in job vacancies, raising expectations for further interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [8][9] Oil Market - Both domestic oil prices increased, with U.S. oil rising by 0.46% and Brent oil by 0.48%. The decline in U.S. crude oil inventories exceeded expectations, supporting oil prices [10]

值得注意的是，蒋睿补充道，近日白银价格回调的核心原因，还是在于彭博商品指数（BCOM）年度再 平衡引发了被动抛售。作为全球大宗商品核心基准的彭博商品指数于2026年1月8日至1月14日进行年度 权重调整。2025年，白银价格迎来爆发式上涨，使其在该指数中占比提升，而2026年目标权重将降至 4%以下。相关被动型基金为了符合新权重，需大额抛售白银持仓，直接构成白银回撤的核心压力。 2026年伊始，开年以来连涨3日的金银价格出现连续下跌。 机构看好金银资产长期表现 Choice数据显示，1月8日，黄金期货与白银期货的价格再度回调。截至当日15点发稿，COMEX黄金期 货价格跌至4440美元/盎司附近，盘中最低触及4423.6美元/盎司；COMEX白银期货价格回落到75美元/ 盎司附近，跌逾2%。受此影响，黄金、白银类基金净值也纷纷下挫，国投白银LOF当日跌幅相对较 大。 不过，机构普遍继续看好金银的长期投资价值。 短期回调的原因是什么？ 刘庭宇认为，在当前宏观环境下，美国出现滞胀的概率较高，欧洲主要经济体也同样面临财政状况恶化 与滞胀风险的双重压力。从历史数据来看，黄金在滞胀周期中，相对其他大类资产始终具备显著优 ...