转自：新华财经 【重点关注】 •2026年春节档总票房已破5亿元 •2月15日全社会跨区域人员流动量完成28639.7万人次 •2月15日全国高速公路充电量达到1528.05万千瓦时，同比增长116.32% 【国内要闻】 •据猫眼专业版数据，截至2月16日13时52分，2026年春节档档期总票房已破5亿元，《飞驰人生3》《惊蛰无声》《镖人：风起大漠》分列2026年春节档票房 榜前三。 •来自综合运输春运工作专班数据显示，2026年2月15日（春运第14天，农历腊月二十八，星期日），全社会跨区域人员流动量28639.7万人次，环比增长 0.3%，比2025年同期（星期一）增长10.7%。 •国家版权局近日公布2026年度第三批重点作品版权保护预警名单，《飞驰人生3》《惊蛰无声》《镖人：风起大漠》《熊猫计划之部落奇遇记》《星河入 梦》《熊出没·年年有熊》《夜王》等7部院线电影上榜。 •记者2月16日从国家能源局获悉，根据对纳入国家充电设施监测服务平台的5.33万台高速公路充电桩进行统计，春节假期首日（2月15日）全国高速公路充 电量达到1528.05万千瓦时，同比增长116.32%。 •记者16日从应急管理部召开 ...

Group 1 - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology is seeking public opinion on new standards that will increase requirements for physical control components in automobiles [1] - As of the end of 2025, the scale of public funds in China is expected to reach 37.71 trillion yuan [1] - New regulations in Nanjing for ride-hailing services will remove restrictions on driver residency and require platforms to disclose the maximum commission rates [8] Group 2 - The Spring Festival travel season will see over 175,000 youth volunteers providing services [1] - The weather conditions during the Spring Festival are generally suitable for travel, although some areas in central and eastern China may experience strong winds and rain or snow [1] - In 2026, Beijing will issue an additional 80,000 new energy vehicle license plates [1]

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market in the lunar year of the Snake has shown a strong performance, with major indices experiencing significant increases, indicating a bullish trend in the market [3][5]. Market Performance - The A-share market recorded a cumulative increase of 25.58% for the Shanghai Composite Index, 38.84% for the Shenzhen Component Index, and a remarkable 58.73% for the ChiNext Index during the trading period from February 5, 2025, to February 13, 2026 [3]. - The CSI 2000 Index, which includes 2000 smaller-cap stocks, saw a cumulative increase of 50.39%, while the CSI 500 and CSI 1000 indices rose by 48.49% and 40.35%, respectively [3]. Sector Performance - The performance across various sectors was generally positive, with the non-ferrous metals sector leading with a cumulative increase of over 100%. The defense and military industry followed with an increase of nearly 80% [5]. - Other sectors such as telecommunications, electrical equipment, electronics, machinery, construction materials, basic chemicals, light industry manufacturing, and construction decoration also performed well, each with cumulative increases exceeding 50% [5]. - The banking sector lagged behind, with a cumulative increase of less than 10%, while sectors like food and beverage, non-bank financials, transportation, social services, and retail showed relatively weak performance [5]. Individual Stock Performance - Over 4600 A-shares increased in value during the trading period, accounting for nearly 90% of all A-shares, with more than 700 stocks doubling in value [7]. - Notable stocks that saw increases exceeding 500% include Upwind New Materials, Tianpu Co., and others, while stocks like *ST Aowei and *ST Yanshi experienced declines exceeding 50%, highlighting structural risks even in a bullish market [8]. Future Outlook - The market is expected to maintain a positive long-term trend due to reasonable valuations, ongoing supportive policies, and a solidifying macroeconomic recovery [8]. - Looking ahead to the Year of the Horse, it is anticipated that the A-share market will gradually stabilize and recover, with recommendations for investors to adopt a balanced and rational investment strategy focusing on fundamentally strong assets and growth sectors [9][10].

编者按 一年一度的"迁徙"，只因心向一处。 每年的这个时候，十几亿人，往同一个方向走。 过去几年，我们透过各位笔下的文字，看到了归途的思绪、重逢的悲欢、故里的新颜…… 这些看似再平凡不过的日常，因为被写下来，所以有了重量。 格隆汇《归乡记》系列，今年还在。 不为别的，只是觉得：普通人的归乡与奔赴，值得被认真记录。 这是开篇，《归乡有暖，前路有光——我与生活和解的一年》。 这是我用十年青春，在漂泊与安稳、迷茫与坚守里踩出来的真实人生，希望能得到大家的共鸣和共勉。 01 2014年盛夏，带着大学毕业证上未褪尽的青涩，也带着对"遍地是机会"的憧憬，我背着简单的行囊，挤上 了开往深圳的火车。 初入深圳的日子，是裹着窘迫与慌张的。先后两份试用期工作的挫败后，直到2016年，我终于在一家广告 公司落脚，成为一名视频广告剪辑师。 从最初每月4500元的薪水，省吃俭用才能勉强覆盖房租和伙食，到2024年税前1.1万元的收入，这八年里， 我熬了无数个通宵，改了无数版方案，把青春里的热血与精力，都耗在了电脑屏幕的时间轴上。 2019年，全国楼市的热浪席卷而来，房价像坐了火箭般飙升，连空气里都弥漫着"买房"的焦虑。 也是在这一年， ...

（原标题：波黑5C走廊路段获欧盟逾1.4亿欧元赠款支持） 此外，部长会议要求各法规制定机构尽快向欧洲一体化局提交所有已与欧盟法律协调的法规英译 版，以便进行译文质量监控。会议强调，波黑机构翻译法律法规时必须使用《波黑法律法规英译手 册》。 上述决议源于部长会议通过的欧洲一体化局关于入盟进程中文件法规翻译情况的报告。相关行动旨在加 速波黑准备国内法律与欧盟法律协调的分析审查，即筛选进程。（驻波黑使馆经商处） 波黑塞族共和国广电网2月9日报道。波黑部长会议宣布，欧盟委员会将提供超过1.4亿欧元赠款， 用于建设5C走廊高速公路莫斯塔尔北至莫斯塔尔南路段。该项目还将获得欧洲复兴开发银行此前与波 黑签署的2.2亿欧元贷款的共同融资。 该笔资金来源于欧盟"西巴尔干联合基金"投资赠款，并由欧洲复兴开发银行管理。该协议草案及签 订依据将提交波黑主席团作进一步决策。 部长会议已责成相关机构加快履行波黑从"西巴增长计划"中提取资金的义务。波黑经济规划局需在 下届部长会议召开前提交关于建立制度框架的决定草案，财政部则负责提交贷款及工具协议的具体草 案，以供审议并进入后续程序。 ...

Core Viewpoint - Shenzhen is taking significant steps to protect the rights of new employment form workers, with initiatives such as the "Deep Dream Reunion" free housing program during the Spring Festival and the implementation of a new regulation aimed at ensuring their legal rights [1][3]. Group 1: Legislative Measures - The "Decision on Strengthening the Rights Protection of New Employment Form Workers" will officially take effect on November 1, 2025, addressing the unique challenges faced by this workforce [1][3]. - The regulation clarifies the employment relationship between companies and new employment form workers, particularly for high-risk jobs like delivery riders and ride-hailing drivers, encouraging companies to pay for individual work injury insurance for eligible workers [3]. Group 2: Implementation and Feedback - Since the implementation of the decision, Shenzhen has collected 325 suggestions from new employment groups, with a 100% response rate to these concerns [3]. - Major platform companies in the logistics sector are required to report on their key activities regularly, ensuring compliance with higher-level directives and addressing industry dynamics [3]. Group 3: Community Support Initiatives - The number of friendly scenarios for new employment groups in Shenzhen has increased from 2,852 to 2,946, and community health centers have grown from 183 to 235 [4]. - The "Deep Dream Reunion" initiative has attracted 765 households to apply for free housing, with 474 applications approved and 269 households confirmed for occupancy [5].

Core Insights - The report emphasizes that the current market is likely to experience a divergence in expectations, moving from a long-term bullish sentiment to a more uncertain and volatile environment, making interest rate strategies more favorable [1] - The primary risk associated with interest rate strategies is default risk, which has evolved over time, particularly in the context of credit bonds [1] Group 1: Credit Bond Default Risk Reassessment - Historical default rates show that private enterprises have a higher proportion of defaults, particularly in the real estate sector, while state-owned enterprises and banks have experienced occasional unexpected risks [11] - The current landscape of industrial bonds is dominated by state-owned enterprises, with a low probability of events similar to "Yong Coal," indicating that risk industries have reached a bottom [12] - The preference for holdings in public bond funds is shifting towards state-owned enterprises, counter-cyclical industries, quality regions, and leading institutions, reflecting a low exposure to risk [12] Group 2: Market Volatility and Interest Rate Strategies - The report outlines two main strategies for navigating the anticipated market volatility in 2026: - Strategy One focuses on credit downshifting and long-duration bonds with yields above 2.5%, targeting stable liabilities and absolute returns, particularly in city investment bonds and state-owned enterprise bonds [2] - Strategy Two emphasizes high liquidity and low volatility bonds with yields above 2.0%, aimed at defensive allocations in strong regions and leading enterprises [2] Group 3: Market Dynamics and Economic Indicators - The report notes that the lack of sufficient negative factors, combined with a weak economic recovery and unchanged monetary policy, suggests that the market will likely remain in a state of fluctuation [2] - The report highlights that while there is some room for interest rate cuts, the timing will depend on the verification of increasing economic recovery pressures [2] - The bond market is currently constrained within a range, leading to a higher probability of volatility [2]

Group 1: Industrial Production Trends - Industrial production has slightly declined, with a small recovery in blast furnace operation rates, which increased by 0.5% week-on-week and 0.5 percentage points year-on-year to 2.4% [2] - Steel apparent consumption decreased by 5.1% week-on-week and fell by 6.8 percentage points year-on-year to -5.5% [2] - Steel social inventory saw a significant increase, rising by 5.6% week-on-week [2] Group 2: Construction Industry Insights - Cement production showed a slight recovery, but the shipment rate declined, with a week-on-week decrease of 7.7% and a year-on-year drop of 1.7 percentage points to -7.7% [19] - The cement inventory ratio increased, rising by 2.3% week-on-week and 3.2 percentage points year-on-year to 4.2% [19] - The average price of cement decreased by 0.8% week-on-week [19] Group 3: Demand and Consumption Patterns - The average daily transaction area of commercial housing in 30 major cities decreased by 1.6% week-on-week but increased by 2.9 percentage points year-on-year to -19% [37] - The transaction performance varied by city tier, with first-tier and third-tier cities showing resilience, while second-tier cities experienced weakness [37] - Port cargo throughput and railway freight volume both increased year-on-year, with port container throughput rising by 12.0 percentage points to 14.5% [45] Group 4: Price Trends - Agricultural product prices showed divergence, with pork prices stable, egg prices rising by 0.1%, and vegetable and fruit prices declining by 3.1% and 0.3% respectively [76] - The industrial product price index decreased by 1.8% week-on-week, with energy and chemical prices down by 0.9% and metal prices down by 3.6% [85]

滨州日报/滨州网讯 加快服务业高质量发展、构建优质高效服务业新体系，是加快发展新质生产力、建 设现代化产业体系的内在要求。2025年以来，滨州市制定出台支持服务业高质量发展政策措施，推动发 展动能向新向好，重点领域迎来发展契机，全市服务业经济实现较快增长，优质高效发展取得积极成 效。 服务支撑效能提升，筑牢经济稳定根基 2025年，滨州市服务业增加值达1638.31亿元，按可比价格计算同比增长6.1％；服务业对国民经济增长 的贡献率达 54.4％，较2024年提升16个百分点，拉动 GDP增长2.9个百分点，较2024年提高0.5个百分 点；服务业增加值占GDP比重升至46.1％，较2024年上升0.7个百分点，产业占比和贡献度双提升。 其中，规模以上服务业企业发展态势向好，营业收入同比增长8.0％，高于规模以上工业7.0个百分点； 重点行业营收实现稳步增长——交通运输、仓储和邮政业，租赁和商务服务业规上企业营收分别增长 7.4％和20.2％。 另外，直播电商、即时零售等新业态新模式快速成长，全市限额以上实物商品网上零售额增长14.3％， 为服务业发展注入新活力。 产业融合纵深推进，赋能重点领域发展 2025 ...

Core Viewpoint - Legendary investor Jim Rogers predicts that a severe global financial crisis will erupt in 2026, worse than the 2008 subprime crisis, due to overwhelming global debt levels and irrational market behaviors [3][5][6]. Debt Crisis - Rogers highlights alarming global debt statistics, with U.S. national debt exceeding $38 trillion, translating to over $110,000 per citizen, and growing at a rate of $4.4 billion daily [5][6]. - Global debt has surpassed $337 trillion, accounting for over 350% of global GDP, indicating a precarious situation for many countries facing increasing default risks [6]. Market Behavior - The current U.S. stock market is characterized by an AI bubble, with many companies' valuations significantly detached from their fundamentals, reminiscent of past market euphoria before crises [6][7]. - Rogers warns that crises often begin with seemingly minor events that escalate, and there are already signs of debt defaults in smaller countries [7]. Investment Strategy - Rogers has completely liquidated his U.S. stock holdings, viewing the current market as a bubble, and has shifted his investments into gold, silver, and copper, which he considers "crisis insurance" [9][10]. - He emphasizes the importance of holding physical metals as a safeguard against future financial turmoil, planning to pass these assets to his children [9][11]. Focus on China - Despite global pessimism, Rogers maintains a long-term bullish outlook on Chinese assets, stating he will never abandon investments in China and holds significant Chinese stocks [4][14]. - He believes in China's unique historical resilience, its undervalued assets compared to the U.S. market, and strong fundamental support from a well-educated workforce [16][17][18]. Key Sectors in China - Rogers identifies three key sectors in China for investment: tourism and transportation, agriculture, and high-end manufacturing and technology [19][20][21]. - He sees significant growth potential in tourism and transportation due to increased consumer spending, agriculture as a strategic necessity, and high-end manufacturing driven by innovation and a skilled labor force [19][20][21]. Investment Philosophy - Rogers advocates for a contrarian investment approach, focusing on core assets and avoiding speculative investments [21][22]. - He emphasizes the importance of capital preservation, long-term investment strategies, and the need to remain vigilant during market euphoria and panic [23][24].