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对二甲苯:多PX空PTAPTA:长丝检修落地,多PX空PTA
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-05-28 01:15
2025年05月28日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-能源化工 观点与策略 | 对二甲苯:多PX空PTA | 2 | | --- | --- | | PTA:长丝检修落地,多PX空PTA | 2 | | MEG:单边逢高空,多PTA空MEG | 2 | | 橡胶:震荡偏弱 | 4 | | 合成橡胶:弱势运行 | 6 | | 沥青:区间震荡,出货转淡 | 8 | | LLDPE:偏弱运行 | 10 | | PP:价格小跌,成交一般 | 12 | | 烧碱:后期仍有压力 | 13 | | 纸浆:震荡运行 | 15 | | 玻璃:原片价格平稳 | 17 | | 甲醇:弱势运行 | 18 | | 尿素:内需偏弱,出口支撑,震荡运行 | 20 | | 苯乙烯:短期震荡 | 22 | | 纯碱:现货市场变化不大 | 24 | | LPG:民用气继续企稳,盘面支撑走强 | 25 | | PVC:偏弱运行 | 28 | | 燃料油:日盘跌势延续,短期偏弱震荡 | 30 | | 低硫燃料油:夜盘大幅下跌,外盘现货高低硫价差走强 | 30 | | 集运指数(欧线):高位震荡,10-12反套持有 | 31 | | 短纤:短期震荡市 | ...
聚烯烃月均价期货合约及规则解读
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-05-28 01:11
期货研究报告|聚烯烃专题 2025-05-28 聚烯烃月均价期货合约及规则解读 研究院 化工组 研究员 梁宗泰 020-83901031 liangzongtai@htfc.com 从业资格号:F3056198 投资咨询号:Z0015616 陈莉 020-83901135 cl@htfc.com 从业资格号:F0233775 投资咨询号:Z0000421 联系人 杨露露 投资咨询业务资格: 证监许可【2011】1289 号 0755-82790795 yanglulu@htfc.com 从业资格号:F03128371 吴硕琮 020-83901158 wushuocong@htfc.com 从业资格号:F03119179 刘启展 020-83901049 liuqizhan@htfc.com 从业资格号:F03140168 摘要 在大宗商品贸易中,价格波动是影响市场稳定和企业经营的核心风险。短期剧烈震荡 会显著放大企业经营风险,使生产计划、成本控制和库存管理等环节面临高度不确定 性。近期大连商品交易所面向市场发布线型低密度聚乙烯(LLDPE)、聚丙烯(PP)和 聚氯乙烯(PVC)三大主力化工品的月均价期货合约 ...
国泰君安期货商品研究晨报:能源化工-20250523
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-05-23 01:47
1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Weak or Bearish Outlook**: PX, PTA, MEG, asphalt, LLDPE, PP,烧碱, PVC, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, benzene ethylene [4][12][13][24][38][42][45][86][90][68] - **Neutral Outlook**: rubber, synthetic rubber, paper pulp, glass, methanol, urea, LPG [4][14][20][50][55][59][64][74] - **Specific Strategy**: For the container shipping index (European line), it is recommended to hold a 10 - 12 reverse spread and stay on the sidelines for the near - month contracts [4] 2. Core Views - **PX/PTA**: OPEC's planned production increase in July led to a sharp drop in crude oil prices, causing PX and PTA prices to weaken unilaterally. There is limited upside space, and attention should be paid to the negative impact of polyester production cuts. The supply - demand balance sheet continues to destock, which is beneficial for the near - month positive spread positions [12][13] - **MEG**: There are more device overhauls, and the long - PTA short - MEG position should stop losses. A positive spread strategy for monthly differences is recommended [13] - **Rubber**: It is expected to fluctuate widely, with a neutral trend intensity [14][16] - **Synthetic Rubber**: It is expected to fluctuate within a range, with a neutral trend intensity [20][22] - **Asphalt**: As crude oil prices continue to weaken, asphalt prices will follow and decline [24] - **LLDPE**: It is expected to fluctuate weakly. The supply of polyethylene has high - production and high - inventory pressure, and the demand is weak [38][39] - **PP**: Prices have a slight decline, and trading volume is average, with a neutral trend intensity [42][43] - **Caustic Soda**: It is expected to operate weakly. There is a lack of continuous upward drivers in the fundamentals, and future production will remain high [45][47] - **Paper Pulp**: It is expected to fluctuate, with a neutral trend intensity. The market is in a state of oversupply, and demand is weak [50][53] - **Glass**: The price of the original sheet is stable, with a neutral trend intensity [55][56] - **Methanol**: It is expected to be under pressure while fluctuating. The supply has an incremental expectation, which suppresses the market [60][62] - **Urea**: It is expected to fluctuate at a high level, with a neutral trend intensity. The futures price will have a long - short game, with support below and limited upside due to policy control [64][66][67] - **Benzene Ethylene**: It is expected to fluctuate in the short term, with a bearish trend intensity. The supply of pure benzene exceeds demand, and the inventory of benzene ethylene is low [68][69] - **Soda Ash**: The spot market has little change, with a neutral trend intensity [70][72] - **LPG**: The cost support is weakening, and it is expected to fluctuate weakly overall, with a neutral trend intensity [74][80] - **PVC**: It is expected to operate weakly. The high - production and high - inventory structure in the first half of the year is difficult to change [86][87] - **Fuel Oil**: It has dropped significantly and entered a short - term weak state. Low - sulfur fuel oil continues to follow the decline of crude oil, and the narrowing trend of the high - low sulfur spread in the external market has暂缓 [90] - **Container Shipping Index (European Line)**: Stay on the sidelines for near - month contracts and hold a 10 - 12 reverse spread [31] 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs 3.1 PX/PTA/MEG - **Fundamentals**: On May 22, PX, PTA, MEG, PF, and SC's main closing prices all decreased compared to the previous day, with declines of 2.2%, 1.8%, 0.1%, 1.4%, and 1.8% respectively. The monthly differences, inter - variety spreads, and basis also had corresponding changes [6] - **Market Overview**: Due to falling oil prices and a slight slowdown in downstream polyester production, the price of Asian p - xylene has declined. The expected slowdown in China's downstream polyester business has begun, but the current production reduction may not have a significant impact on prices. The PTA load has increased to 77.1%, and the overall start - up load of ethylene glycol in the Chinese mainland has decreased to 58.25% [8][9] - **Market Outlook**: OPEC's planned production increase in July led to a sharp drop in crude oil prices, causing PX and PTA prices to weaken unilaterally. The supply of PX and PTA has increased, and the upward momentum of prices has weakened. For MEG, there are more device overhauls, and the long - PTA short - MEG position should stop losses [12][13] 3.2 Rubber - **Fundamentals**: The trading volume, open interest, and other indicators of the rubber futures market on May 22 decreased compared to the previous day. The prices of various rubber varieties in the spot market were relatively stable, with some small fluctuations [16] - **Industry News**: In April 2025, China's natural rubber imports decreased month - on - month but increased year - on - year. It is expected that the import volume will continue to decrease in May due to the unstable raw material supply in overseas production areas at the beginning of the new tapping season [18][19] - **Market Outlook**: It is expected to fluctuate widely, with a neutral trend intensity [14][16] 3.3 Synthetic Rubber - **Fundamentals**: The trading volume of the synthetic rubber futures market on May 22 decreased, and the open interest increased. The prices of various synthetic rubber varieties in the spot market decreased, while the price of butadiene increased. The profit of cis - butadiene rubber has improved [20] - **Industry News**: As of May 21, the inventory of China's high - cis cis - butadiene rubber sample enterprises increased. The inventory of butadiene in East China ports continued to decline. The price of cis - butadiene rubber is restricted by the overall rubber sector, and the upside space is narrowed [20][23] - **Market Outlook**: It is expected to fluctuate within a range, with a neutral trend intensity [20][22] 3.4 Asphalt - **Fundamentals**: The trading volume and open interest of asphalt futures contracts on May 22 had different changes. The spot prices in Shandong and the Yangtze River Delta regions remained stable. The refinery start - up rate and inventory rate decreased slightly [24] - **Market News**: In the week of May 16 - 22, 2025, China's asphalt weekly output decreased. As of May 22, the inventory of asphalt sample factories decreased, while the social inventory increased slightly [37] - **Market Outlook**: As crude oil prices continue to weaken, asphalt prices will follow and decline [24] 3.5 LLDPE - **Fundamentals**: The price of LLDPE futures on May 22 decreased, and the open interest decreased. The spot prices in North, East, and South China decreased [38] - **Market Conditions**: The domestic PE market has declined slightly this week. The market is under pressure due to limited downstream demand and slow de - stocking in the upstream and middle reaches. The supply pressure of polyethylene in 2025 is still high, and the demand is weak [38][39] - **Market Outlook**: It is expected to fluctuate weakly, with a bearish trend intensity [38][41] 3.6 PP - **Fundamentals**: The price of PP futures on May 22 decreased slightly, and the open interest increased. The spot prices in North, East, and South China had slight adjustments [42] - **Market Conditions**: The domestic PP market has been slightly adjusted, with weak trading volume. The futures market has little guidance for the spot market, and downstream demand is insufficient [43] - **Market Outlook**: The price will decline slightly, and trading volume will be average, with a neutral trend intensity [42][43] 3.7 Caustic Soda - **Fundamentals**: The price of the 09 - contract caustic soda futures and the spot price of 32% ion - membrane caustic soda in Shandong on May 23 are provided, and the basis is 128 [45] - **Market Conditions**: The price of liquid caustic soda in Shandong is stable with a slight increase. From the fundamental perspective, caustic soda lacks continuous upward drivers. The supply will remain high in the future, and it is in the off - season of demand [46][47] - **Market Outlook**: It is expected to operate weakly, with a bearish trend intensity [45][49] 3.8 Paper Pulp - **Fundamentals**: The trading volume and open interest of paper pulp futures on May 22 decreased. The spot prices of various paper pulp varieties had different changes, with a slight increase in the average price of softwood pulp and a decrease in the average price of hardwood pulp [51] - **Industry News**: The price of imported paper pulp showed a "first - up - then - down" trend this week. The main reasons are the fading of policy benefits, obvious demand differentiation, and unresolved port inventory contradictions [52][53] - **Market Outlook**: It is expected to fluctuate, with a neutral trend intensity [50][51] 3.9 Glass - **Fundamentals**: The price of the FG509 glass futures on May 22 decreased, and the open interest increased. The spot prices in Shahe, Hubei, and Zhejiang had different changes [56] - **Market Conditions**: The price of domestic float glass original sheets was generally stable with minor fluctuations. The market trading atmosphere was average, with a strong wait - and - see sentiment [56] - **Market Outlook**: The price of the original sheet is stable, with a neutral trend intensity [55][57] 3.10 Methanol - **Fundamentals**: The price of methanol futures on May 22 decreased, and the open interest increased. The spot prices in Jiangsu, Inner Mongolia, and other regions decreased [60] - **Market Conditions**: The domestic methanol market has declined this week. The supply has an incremental expectation, which suppresses the market. The port inventory has increased slightly, and the MTO start - up rate is relatively high [62][63] - **Market Outlook**: It is expected to be under pressure while fluctuating, with a neutral trend intensity [59][63] 3.11 Urea - **Fundamentals**: The price of urea futures on May 22 decreased slightly, and the open interest decreased. The spot prices of urea factories and traders were relatively stable [65] - **Industry News**: As of May 21, China's urea enterprise inventory increased. The futures price of urea is expected to fluctuate in a long - short game, with support below and limited upside due to policy control [66][67] - **Market Outlook**: It is expected to fluctuate at a high level, with a neutral trend intensity [64][67] 3.12 Benzene Ethylene - **Fundamentals**: The prices of benzene ethylene futures contracts on May 22 decreased, and the trading volume and open interest decreased. The spot price of benzene ethylene decreased, and the inventory was at a low level [68] - **Market Conditions**: The weakness of pure benzene has not ended, and the supply pressure continues to recover. The downstream demand for pure benzene is weak, and the short - term supply exceeds demand. The downstream production and sales of benzene ethylene were strong on Monday but declined rapidly from Tuesday to Friday [69] - **Market Outlook**: It is expected to fluctuate in the short term, with a bearish trend intensity [68][69] 3.13 Soda Ash - **Fundamentals**: The price of the SA2509 soda ash futures on May 22 increased slightly, and the trading volume was large. The spot prices in North, East, and Central China remained stable [72] - **Market Conditions**: The domestic soda ash market is stable with minor fluctuations. The supply has a slight adjustment, and downstream demand is not strong [72] - **Market Outlook**: The spot market has little change, with a neutral trend intensity [70][72] 3.14 LPG - **Fundamentals**: The prices of LPG futures contracts on May 22 decreased, and the trading volume and open interest had different changes. The spreads between Guangzhou's domestic and imported LPG and the 07 - contract increased. The PDH start - up rate increased [74] - **Market News**: There are many PDH device overhauls in the industry. The cost support for LPG is weakening [74][81] - **Market Outlook**: The cost support is weakening, and it is expected to fluctuate weakly overall, with a neutral trend intensity [74][80] 3.15 PVC - **Fundamentals**: The price of the 09 - contract PVC futures on May 23 and the spot price in East China are provided, and the basis is - 96 [86] - **Market Conditions**: The domestic PVC market has declined slightly this week. The fundamentals are expected to be weak, with the release of new production capacity and the arrival of the rainy - season off - season. The high - production and high - inventory structure in the first half of the year is difficult to change [86][87] - **Market Outlook**: It is expected to operate weakly, with a bearish trend intensity [86][89] 3.16 Fuel Oil - **Fundamentals**: The prices of fuel oil and low - sulfur fuel oil futures contracts on May 22 decreased, and the trading volume and open interest had different changes. The spot prices of fuel oil in various regions decreased [90] - **Market Outlook**: Fuel oil has dropped significantly and entered a short - term weak state. Low - sulfur fuel oil continues to follow the decline of crude oil, and the narrowing trend of the high - low sulfur spread in the external market has暂缓 [90] 3.17 Container Shipping Index (European Line) - **Fundamentals**: The prices of container shipping index (European line) futures contracts on May 22 had different changes, and the trading volume and open interest decreased. The freight rates of European and US - West routes in the SCFIS and SCFI indices had different changes [92] - **Market Outlook**: Stay on the sidelines for near - month contracts and hold a 10 - 12 reverse spread [31]
化工日报:PTA装置陆续重启,关注成本支撑-20250522
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-05-22 03:20
化工日报 | 2025-05-22 PTA装置陆续重启,关注成本支撑 市场要闻与数据 在原油上涨和主流供应商减合约消息下,周三PTA期货震荡上行,现货市场商谈氛围一般,现货基差企稳。 市场分析 成本端,市场近期关注点在宏观和地缘上反复切换,目前暂无消息指引,油价拉锯盘整,继续关注美伊核谈和俄 乌谈判方面进展。 汽油和芳烃方面,汽油裂解近期有所反弹,但季节性表现仍弱于前两年。芳烃方面,今年的调油需求已不值得过 多的期待,国内外间歇性调油需求依靠石脑油基本可以满足,限制芳烃进入汽油池的积极性。3~5月上旬韩国出口 到美国的芳烃调油料甲苯+MX+PX有明显下降,近期关注利润恢复下PX短流程装置恢复情况。 PX方面,上上个交易日PXN258美元/吨(环比变动-13.25美元/吨)。近期近期宏观利好提振,同时多套px装置计划外 损失增加,进一步收紧PX近月供需预期,市场货源偏紧,加之窗口内PX买气活跃,外商挺价积极,进一步支撑价 格上行,PXN低位反弹,当前已脱离低估值水平。后续5月国内PX检修装置将陆续重启,供应预计有所增加,但PTA 新装置投产下PX延续去库。整体来看,短期市场情绪好转和计划外检修增多下PXN反弹明 ...
宏源期货品种策略日报-20250522
Hong Yuan Qi Huo· 2025-05-22 02:03
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The market for ethylene glycol is currently in a state of cautious sentiment, with participants being more prudent due to uncertainties in macro - market developments and negotiations. The price of ethylene glycol has shown narrow - range adjustments, and the market is affected by factors such as supply - side losses and polyester load. In the short - term, the market will maintain a slow trend, and attention should be paid to polyester production reduction news [2]. - The production and sales of polyester products such as polyester filament, polyester staple fiber, and polyester chips have shown certain fluctuations. The production and sales of polyester filament have improved slightly, while the overall production and sales of polyester products are affected by factors such as raw material price increases [2]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Price Information - **Crude Oil**: On May 22, 2025, the price of crude oil was $569.63 per ton, with a price increase of 0.04% compared to the previous value [1]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The price of ethylene glycol in the Northeast Asia region was $781 per ton on May 21, 2025, with no change compared to the previous value. The price of ethylene glycol in the East China region was $600 per ton on May 22, 2025, with no change compared to the previous value [1]. - **Polyester Products**: The price index of polyester on May 21, 2025, was $890 per ton, with no change compared to the previous value; the price index of polyester staple fiber was $663 per ton, with an increase of 0.15% compared to the previous value; the price index of bottle - grade polyester chips was $605 per ton, with an increase of 0.83% compared to the previous value [1]. 3.2 Operating Rate Information - The operating rate of ethylene glycol production by the oil - based method was 54.94% on May 21, 2025, with no change compared to the previous value; the operating rate of ethylene glycol production by the coal - based method was 48.18% on May 21, 2025, with no change compared to the previous value [1]. - The load rate of the polyester industry's PTA factory was 91.11% on May 21, 2025, with no change compared to the previous value; the load rate of the textile machinery industry in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions was 68.10% on May 21, 2025, with no change compared to the previous value [1]. 3.3 Market Transaction Information - In the ethylene glycol market, on May 21, 2025, the trading volume of ethylene glycol futures was 186,500 lots, and the closing price was $4414 per ton, with an increase of 0.23% compared to the previous day [2]. - The production and sales of polyester products such as polyester filament, polyester staple fiber, and polyester chips were 111.52%, 48.3%, and 69.0% respectively on May 21, 2025, showing certain fluctuations compared to the previous period [2].
化工日报:PTA装置陆续重启,基差快速回落-20250521
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-05-21 02:20
Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for PX/PTA/PF/PR is neutral [5] Core Viewpoints - The market's focus has been shifting between macro and geopolitical factors, with oil prices in a range - bound consolidation. Attention should be paid to the progress of the US - Iran nuclear talks and the Russia - Ukraine negotiations [2] - The gasoline crack has rebounded recently, but its seasonal performance is still weaker than in the previous two years. The aromatics blending demand for gasoline is not promising this year, and the intermittent blending demand at home and abroad can be basically met by naphtha [2] - PXN has rebounded from a low level due to macro - level positive factors and unexpected losses of multiple PX plants. In May, domestic PX maintenance plants will gradually restart, and PX will continue to draw down inventory under the commissioning of new PTA plants [2] - The PTA spot basis has weakened, and the processing fees have declined. With the high - operation of downstream polyester plants, PTA will continue to draw down inventory significantly in May. As the PTA price rebounds, the maintenance of PTA plants is postponed, and the supply will gradually return [3] - The polyester operating rate has increased, and downstream orders have improved after the positive progress of the China - US negotiations and tariff reduction. The inventory of filament has decreased significantly, and the average monthly polyester load in May may increase instead of decrease [3] - The spot processing fee of polyester bottle - chips has increased, and the market supply is gradually rising, which may put pressure on the market price. Attention should be paid to the maintenance news of bottle - chip plants due to rising costs [4] - After the continuous and rapid rise, the current valuations of PXN and PTA are no longer at low levels, and the market sentiment has declined. Attention should be paid to the downstream negative feedback and the support from the crude oil cost side [5] Summary by Directory Price and Basis - The report includes figures on the TA main - contract, basis, and inter - period spread trends; PX main - contract trends, basis, and inter - period spread; PTA East China spot basis; and short - fiber basis [9][10][12] Upstream Profits and Spreads - Figures cover PX processing fee (PXN), PTA spot processing fee, South Korean xylene isomerization profit, and South Korean STDP selective disproportionation profit [17][20] International Spreads and Import - Export Profits - It includes figures on the toluene US - Asia spread, toluene South Korea FOB - Japan naphtha CFR, and PTA export profit [25][27] Upstream PX and PTA Start - up - Figures show the operating rates of Chinese, South Korean, and Taiwanese PTA plants, as well as Chinese and Asian PX plants [28][31][33] Social Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - Figures present the weekly social inventory of PTA, monthly social inventory of PX, and various types of warehouse receipts for PTA, PX, and PF [36][39][40] Downstream Polyester Load - It includes figures on the production and sales of filament and short - fiber, polyester load, and the inventory days and profits of various filament products, as well as the operating rates of weaving, texturing, and dyeing in Jiangsu and Zhejiang [48][50][60] PF Detailed Data - Figures cover the load of polyester staple fiber, factory equity inventory days, physical and equity inventories, and the operating rates and processing fees of related yarns [71][73][80] PR Fundamental Detailed Data - Figures show the load of polyester bottle - chips, factory inventory days, processing fees, export profits, and various price spreads [91][93][99]
化工日报-20250520
Guo Tou Qi Huo· 2025-05-20 12:15
| 《八八 国投期货 | | | | 化工日报 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 操作评级 | | 2025年05月20日 | | 尿素 | ☆☆☆ | 甲醇 | 女女女 | 庞春艳 首席分析师 | | 苯乙烯 | ななな | 聚丙烯 | ☆☆☆ | F3011557 Z0011355 | | 塑料 | ななな | PVC | ☆☆☆ | | | 烧碱 | ななな | PX | ☆☆☆ | 牛卉 高级分析师 | | PTA | ななな | 乙二醇 | ☆☆☆ | F3003295 Z0011425 | | 短纤 | ななな | 玻璃 | ☆☆☆ | 王雪忆 分析师 | | 统威 | ☆☆☆ 瓶片 | | ななな | F03125010 | | | | | | 周小燕 高级分析师 | | | | | | F03089068 Z0016691 | | | | | | 010-58747784 | | | | | | gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | 【甲醇】 甲醇主力合约连续回落。国内多套装置复产,供应压力的显著增多对行情产生较大压制,生产 ...
【期货热点追踪】多头氛围浓郁,化工品期货依旧强势领涨。机构分析指出,当前苯乙烯因检修导致现货流动性偏紧,价格存在一定支撑,但整体仍受纯苯价格低迷的制约;短期内PTA现货价格则跟随成本端偏强震荡。
news flash· 2025-05-14 01:51
Group 1 - The current bullish sentiment in the market is strong, particularly in the chemical futures sector, which continues to lead the gains [1] - Styrene prices are supported by tight spot liquidity due to maintenance, although they are still constrained by the low prices of pure benzene [1] - Short-term PTA spot prices are fluctuating strongly in line with the robust cost side [1]
苯乙烯日报:纯苯港口库存仍未兑现上升-20250507
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-05-07 03:39
苯乙烯日报 | 2025-05-07 纯苯港口库存仍未兑现上升 苯乙烯观点 市场要闻与重要数据 纯苯方面:纯苯港口库存12.00万吨(+0.00万吨);纯苯CFR中国加工费129美元/吨(-3美元/吨),纯苯FOB韩国加 工费107美元/吨(-3美元/吨),纯苯美韩价差97.5美元/吨(+15.0美元/吨),仍处于关闭状态。华东纯苯现货-M2价 差-35元/吨(+60元/吨)。 苯乙烯方面:苯乙烯主力基差186元/吨(-26元/吨);苯乙烯非一体化生产利润30元/吨(+87元/吨),预期逐步压缩。 苯乙烯华东港口库存68500吨(-16700吨),苯乙烯华东商业库存53500吨(-4700吨),处于库存回建阶段。苯乙烯 开工率70.5%(+2.6%)。 上游原油价格大幅波动,中美关税政策变化,对美国乙烷的关税动态 2025年期货市场研究报告 第1页 请仔细阅读本报告最后一页的免责声明 下游硬胶方面:EPS生产利润516元/吨(-11元/吨),PS生产利润-9元/吨(+14元/吨),ABS生产利润957元/吨(-168 元/吨)。EPS开工率48.73%(-8.31%),PS开工率58.70%(+0.00%), ...
对二甲苯:月差正套,加工费扩张
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-05-07 01:43
Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - PX: Short - term sideways market, month - to - month positive spread arbitrage. Long PX and short SC, long PX and short EB. The geopolitical conflict drives the rebound of crude oil, supporting PX valuation. The recovery of polyester terminal demand boosts the valuation of the aromatic polyester chain [10]. - PTA: Month - to - month positive spread arbitrage, long PTA and short SC. PTA supply decreases while demand increases, maintaining a de - stocking pattern. It is recommended to maintain the 6 - 9 positive spread arbitrage. Due to high processing fees, some device overhauls are postponed, so a short - on - rallies strategy is advisable [10]. - MEG: Unilateral trend is weak, long PTA and short MEG. Do not chase high on month spreads. Ethylene glycol supply will continue to increase, with difficulties in reducing port inventories [11]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Fundamental Tracking - **Price and Change**: On May 6, 2025, PX, PTA, MEG, PF, and SC had daily changes of - 1.3%, - 1.6%, - 0.6%, - 0.4%, and - 1.9% respectively compared to the previous day [2]. - **Month Spread**: On May 6, 2025, PX (9 - 1), PTA(6 - 9), MEG (9 - 1), PF(7 - 8), and PX - EB09 had daily changes of - 6, - 10, - 1, 12, and 24 respectively [2]. - **Inter - variety Spread**: On May 6, 2025, PTA09 - 0.65PX09, PTA09 - MEG09, PTA09 - PF09, PF07 processing fees, and PTA09 - LU09 had daily changes of - 19, - 47, 8, 9, and - 44 respectively [2]. - **Basis and Spread**: On May 6, 2025, PX basis, PTA basis, MEG basis, PF basis, and PX - naphtha spread had daily changes of 170, - 8, 4, 46, and 2 respectively [2]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: On May 6, 2025, PTA, ethylene glycol, short - fiber, PX, and SC warehouse receipts had daily changes of no change, - 3, - 80, 247, and no change respectively [2]. 2. Market Overview - **Crude Oil**: Israel plans to expand military operations in Gaza, and the geopolitical situation remains unstable. Iran is committed to diplomatic dialogue with the US, but the fourth - round nuclear negotiation is postponed [4]. - **PX**: On May 6, PX price rose, with two June Asian spot transactions at 745 and 746 respectively. A 210,000 - ton PX device in Japan stopped unexpectedly, and a 190,000 - ton device is under maintenance. A 2.5 - million - ton PX device in East China restarted. South Korea exported about 439,000 tons of PX in April, with 390,000 tons to China and 49,000 tons to Taiwan, China [4]. - **PTA**: A 1.5 - million - ton PTA device in East China stopped for planned maintenance and is expected to restart by the end of the month. A northwest PTA supplier's April settlement price was 4824.77 yuan/ton, and the May advance payment price is 4800 yuan/ton [8]. - **MEG**: From May 6 - 11, the planned arrivals at major ports are about 59,000 tons. A 400,000 - ton/year ethylene glycol device in Guangdong stopped for maintenance on the 6th, expected to last about 20 days. On the 6th, the MEG inventory at East China's major ports was about 790,000 tons, a decrease of 10,000 tons [8][9]. - **Polyester**: On May 6, the sales of direct - spinning polyester staple fiber factories were average, with an average sales - to - production ratio of 77%. The sales of polyester yarn in Jiangsu and Zhejiang were weak, with an average sales - to - production ratio of less than 40% in the afternoon [9][10]. 3. Trend Intensity - The trend intensities of p - xylene, PTA, and MEG are all 0 [11].