人民财讯9月16日电，商务部等9部门印发《关于扩大服务消费的若干政策措施》，其中提出，综合运用 货币信贷等政策工具，支持金融机构扩大服务消费领域信贷投放，加大对服务消费领域经营主体信贷投 放力度，合理确定贷款利率水平，可持续支持服务消费。支持金融机构针对服务消费经营主体特点和融 资需求，创新开发特色金融产品和服务。鼓励金融机构加强对多元化服务消费场景、集聚区和相关重点 项目建设支持。 ...

上周(9月8日-9月14日)共有129家公募机构参与了154家A股上市公司的调研，合计调研频次达702次。行 业方面，电力设备成为上周最受公募调研青睐行业，合计调研次数达143次。此外，电子、计算机、医 药生物、汽车、有色金属等行业亦获得较高关注。富国基金认为，后续将逢低布局具有产业趋势或政策 逻辑的方向。科技板块仍是行情核心主线，关注AI、机器人、创新药等，与市场行情联动性较强的非 银金融也有望持续受益。此外，根据政策节奏增加对存在政策倾斜的服务消费，以及受益于反内卷和海 外降息后流动性环境和制造业修复的化工、有色、新能源等方向的关注。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The economic data for August indicates a slowdown in China's economy, with key indicators falling short of market expectations, highlighting persistent supply-demand imbalances and increasing downward pressure on growth [1][4]. Group 1: Consumption - Retail sales growth in August was 3.4%, below the expected 3.8%, influenced by adjustments in national subsidies and the emergence of consumption loan interest subsidies [3][5]. - Commodity consumption growth declined by 0.4 percentage points to 3.6%, marking the third consecutive month of slowdown, with notable performance in upgraded goods like jewelry and sports equipment [5]. - Service consumption remained resilient, with retail sales growth slightly decreasing to 5.1%, driven by increased demand for travel and leisure activities during the summer [8][10]. Group 2: Fixed Asset Investment - Fixed asset investment growth was only 0.5% in August, a significant drop of 1.1 percentage points from the previous month, with infrastructure and manufacturing investments also declining [11][12]. - Real estate investment saw a year-on-year decline of 12.9%, with new construction and sales continuing to weaken, indicating ongoing challenges in the property market [12][15]. - The government is expected to implement policies to stimulate investment, including early issuance of local government debt limits to alleviate financial burdens [15][28]. Group 3: Trade - Export growth in August was 4.8% year-on-year, down from 7.2%, primarily due to a significant drop in exports to the U.S., which fell by 33.1% [19][21]. - Imports also slowed to a growth rate of 1.3%, with declines in energy and agricultural product imports, while trade surplus expanded to $102.33 billion, up 11.8% year-on-year [19][20]. Group 4: Supply - Industrial production growth slowed to 5.2%, below the expected 5.7%, with ongoing supply-demand imbalances and a decline in the production of consumer goods [22]. - High-tech manufacturing sectors showed robust growth, with a 9.3% increase, while overall production faced challenges from weak domestic and external demand [22]. Group 5: Inflation - CPI inflation rose to 0.9%, marking the fourth consecutive month of increase, while PPI inflation improved to -2.9%, indicating some recovery in industrial prices [25][27]. - The divergence in CPI and PPI trends suggests potential for marginal recovery in prices, supported by various favorable factors [27]. Group 6: Outlook - The economic outlook suggests a potential GDP growth rate of around 4.7% for the third quarter, with increasing pressure to stabilize growth and the likelihood of new policies to support consumption and investment [28].

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese government is focusing on expanding service consumption through various policy measures, aiming to enhance service supply capabilities and stimulate new growth in service consumption [1][3]. Group 1: Current Trends in Service Consumption - Service consumption is increasingly significant, with a shift towards a balanced focus on both goods and services. From 2020 to 2024, the average annual growth rate of residents' service consumption expenditure is projected to be 9.6% [1]. - From January to July this year, service retail sales increased by 5.2% year-on-year, indicating a rising proportion of service consumption [1]. - Key characteristics of service consumption development include continuous expansion, structural upgrades in demand for cultural, entertainment, tourism, sports, and education services, diversification of consumption scenarios, and an increase in demand for high-quality, personalized services [1][2]. Group 2: Strategies for Cultivating New Growth Points - Five strategies are proposed to cultivate new growth points in service consumption: expanding cultural and entertainment consumption, developing unique tourism experiences, enhancing sports consumption, promoting digital consumption, and tapping into lower-tier markets [2]. - There is a need for supply-side optimization, including institutional innovation to lower market entry barriers, enhancing technological empowerment for digital transformation, and building strong service brands [2][3]. Group 3: Policy Recommendations - A comprehensive policy framework is suggested to support service consumption across various sectors such as home services, cultural tourism, digital services, health, and sports [3]. - To boost demand, it is recommended to increase urban and rural residents' income, optimize personal income tax systems, and implement measures like service consumption vouchers or subsidies [3].

Core Insights - The service trade fair is a significant platform for the opening, innovation, and cooperation in service trade, and it plays an important role in expanding service consumption [1] - China's consumption pattern is gradually shifting towards a balance between goods and service consumption [1] Group 1: Market Growth - During the 14th Five-Year Plan period, China's consumption market remains the second largest globally, with an average annual growth of 5.5% in social retail sales over the past four years, expected to exceed 50 trillion yuan this year [1] - Service consumption is growing faster than goods consumption, becoming a key driver for expanding overall consumption [1] Group 2: Consumer Spending Trends - From 2020 to 2024, the average annual growth rate of residents' service consumption expenditure is projected to be 9.6%, with 4.6 yuan spent on services for every 10 yuan spent by consumers [1] - In the first seven months of this year, service retail sales increased by 5.2% year-on-year, with the proportion of service consumption continuing to rise [1] Group 3: Future Policies - Looking ahead to the 15th Five-Year Plan, a series of policies aimed at unleashing the potential of service consumption will continue, including opening up to foreign quality services and reducing restrictive measures domestically to enrich service supply [1] - Targeted new measures are also expected to be introduced [1]

Core Insights - The article discusses the rapid growth and structural characteristics of service consumption in China, emphasizing its importance in driving economic growth and internal demand [7][8][11]. Group 1: Current State of Service Consumption - Service consumption is growing faster than average consumption rates, with a contribution rate of 60.2% to national economic growth in the first half of the year, up 5.8 percentage points year-on-year [8][10]. - The service sector's value added reached 39 trillion yuan, growing by 5.5% year-on-year, indicating a robust performance in service consumption [8][9]. - New business models such as instant retail and live e-commerce are thriving, with online retail sales increasing by 8.5% year-on-year [8][9]. Group 2: Structural Characteristics - Service consumption is diversifying and upgrading, with traditional services like dining and transportation maintaining stable growth while emerging sectors like cultural entertainment and healthcare are rapidly increasing their share [9][10]. - The proportion of service consumption in total consumption rose from 39.7% in 2013 to 46.1% by the end of 2024, highlighting a significant shift towards service-oriented consumption [10][11]. - Urban residents have a higher share of service consumption, but rural areas are experiencing faster growth, contributing to a more balanced overall structure [9][10]. Group 3: Drivers of Service Consumption Growth - Rising per capita GDP, projected to reach $13,500 in 2024, is expected to further drive service consumption demand [11][12]. - The aging population, with the elderly rate increasing from 10.1% in 2015 to 15.6% in 2024, is creating diverse service consumption needs [11][12]. - The younger generation is becoming the main consumer group, shifting towards personalized and high-quality service consumption [11][12]. Group 4: New Growth Points in Service Consumption - The development of life services is expected to continue, driven by technological innovation and mobile payment advancements [15][16]. - The integration of culture and tourism services is anticipated to release significant potential, with AI and IoT enhancing consumer experiences [16][17]. - Health and elderly care services are emerging as new growth areas, with AI applications improving service efficiency and personalization [16][17]. Group 5: Challenges and Policy Recommendations - Insufficient effective supply of service consumption is a major constraint, particularly in rural areas where elderly care services are lacking [19][20]. - Enhancing residents' income and consumption willingness is crucial for stimulating service consumption [20][21]. - Policies should focus on increasing disposable income, improving social security systems, and expanding credit support for service consumption [22][23].

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights a marginal improvement in real estate sales, while durable goods consumption shows signs of weakness, indicating a mixed economic outlook in various sectors [2][4]. Group 1: Real Estate and Construction - New home sales in major cities have shown a year-on-year increase of 4.4%, with first-tier cities experiencing a decline of 6.8%, while second and third-tier cities saw increases of 8.2% and 11.4% respectively [5]. - Despite the improvement in real estate sales, the impact on construction starts remains weak, and infrastructure demand continues to be subdued, leading to a decline in demand for construction materials [2][4]. Group 2: Consumer Durables - Retail sales of passenger vehicles increased by 4.6% year-on-year in August 2025, but the growth rate has significantly slowed down due to a high base from the previous year [5]. - The service consumption sector has shown a decline, with a notable drop in movie box office revenues by 51% week-on-week during the back-to-school period [5]. Group 3: Manufacturing and Technology - The construction demand remains weak, affecting the construction industry, while steel prices have slightly increased due to environmental production limits, and cement prices continue to decline [6]. - Global semiconductor sales have seen a robust year-on-year growth of 20.6% in July 2025, driven by strong demand in AI capital expenditures [6]. Group 4: Transportation and Logistics - Passenger transport demand has decreased significantly week-on-week, with a 17.6% drop in the migration scale index, although it remains up 5% year-on-year [7]. - Freight logistics have also shown a decline, with highway truck traffic and railway freight volume down by 1.0% and 1.2% respectively week-on-week [7].

Market Overview - The market experienced its first significant adjustment last week due to profit-taking by event-driven funds, a healthy need for market rhythm adjustment after rapid index increases, and a structural shift from high-position sectors like computing power and semiconductors to lower-position sectors such as energy storage and new energy [1][4][6] - The long-term upward trend of the A-share index remains intact, supported by expectations of performance improvement from the "anti-involution" policy and liquidity improvement from household savings entering the market [1][5][9] Investment Recommendations - Focus on low-entry opportunities in high-prosperity sectors, particularly energy storage and new energy, which are expected to replace AI hardware as the main market growth driver [1][6][9] - Service consumption sectors such as tourism, dining, duty-free, and cinema are recommended for gradual layout in September [1][7][9] - Sectors benefiting from potential Federal Reserve interest rate cuts, including innovative pharmaceuticals and precious metals, should be monitored [1][8][10] Key Trends - Public fund sales fee reform is expected to encourage long-term investment behavior among investors, promoting stable long-term operation of the A-share market [2][5] - The energy storage and new energy sectors are seeing increased market attention, with significant growth in transaction volume and a potential to replace AI hardware as the new market growth line [2][6] - The Federal Reserve's interest rate cut expectations have risen, with a 71% probability of three rate cuts by the end of the year, which could benefit emerging markets and sectors like precious metals and innovative pharmaceuticals [2][8] Performance Metrics - The A-share market's valuation remains attractive, with the TTM price-to-earnings ratio at 21.87, placing it in the 88.03% historical percentile, indicating a low point in earnings performance [5][9] - Recent data shows a significant drop in household deposits, with a decrease of 1.11 trillion yuan in July, while non-bank financial institutions saw an increase of 2.14 trillion yuan, indicating a shift of household savings into the stock market [5][9]

Group 1: Market Trends - The A-share market has recently experienced an upward trend despite weak economic data, driven by liquidity and risk premium factors[1] - The M1-M2 growth rate differential has widened, indicating that liquid funds are flowing into financial markets[1] - The expectation of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut and the stabilization of the RMB are key macroeconomic narratives influencing market dynamics[1] Group 2: Fund Inflows - Public and private fund participation in the current market rally is higher compared to previous trends, with the margin trading balance exceeding 2 trillion yuan[2] - Equity fund issuance has rebounded, with 1.7 trillion yuan issued from June to August, a nearly 300% increase year-on-year[2] - The net inflow into ETFs has been modest, with a notable shift towards Hong Kong stocks[2] Group 3: Market Sentiment - The A-share sentiment index reached 77.6 as of August 28, up 10.6 percentage points from August 22, indicating a recovery in market sentiment but not yet at extreme levels[3] - Structural overheating is observed in certain sectors, particularly TMT, suggesting potential opportunities for style rebalancing[3] Group 4: Economic Indicators - July economic data showed a decline in retail sales growth to 3.7%, with fixed asset investment and industrial output growth also slowing[1] - The decline in household deposits by 1.1 trillion yuan in July, alongside a 2.14 trillion yuan increase in non-bank deposits, suggests a significant shift of funds into financial markets[1] Group 5: Risks - Risks include potential economic downturns, the possibility of the Fed not cutting rates, and the slow pace of household deposit migration[3] - Overheating speculative sentiment in the market could lead to regulatory risks[3]

Market Overview - The A-share market showed a mixed performance with the Shanghai Composite Index declining by 1.16% and the Consumer ETF (159928) falling by 1.61%, with a total trading volume exceeding 700 million yuan [1] - The Consumer ETF has seen a net subscription of 46 million units, indicating a strong inflow of funds, with a cumulative "capital absorption" exceeding 1.1 billion yuan over the past ten days [1] Consumption Policies - Shaoxing, Zhejiang Province announced a tiered subsidy for hotel banquets based on the number of tables and total expenditure, as part of its upcoming "2025 Shaoxing Consumption Promotion Policy" [3] - The policy focuses on three areas: integration of culture, commerce, and tourism; expansion of new consumption scenarios; and distribution of consumption vouchers, comprising 15 specific measures [3] Long-term Investment Trends - Long-term funds are adopting a high-dividend strategy, with a focus on technology as a growth driver and consumer sectors as a defensive shield [6] - There is a notable shift in fund allocation, with increased investments in technology sectors such as TMT and military-related ETFs, while also showing renewed interest in low-position domestic consumer goods [6] Consumer Sector Insights - The white liquor sector is currently in a bottoming phase, with companies actively adjusting their product channels, presenting potential bottom-fishing opportunities [7] - The consumer landscape is evolving with new demands for emotional and personalized products, particularly in categories like trendy toys and beauty products, which are experiencing significant growth [8][11] Service Consumption Growth - Service consumption is projected to account for 46.1% of household spending by 2024, contributing 63% to overall consumption growth, indicating a shift towards a more significant role in defining lifestyles and emotional connections [14] ETF Composition - The Consumer ETF (159928) has a strong resilience to economic cycles, with the top ten constituent stocks accounting for over 68% of its weight, including leading liquor brands and major consumer goods companies [17][18]