Group 1: DeepSeek AI Model - The Chinese AI company DeepSeek launched its open-source model DeepSeek-R1, which has gained global attention due to its low training costs and high performance in tasks like mathematical reasoning and code generation [2][3] - DeepSeek-R1's core competitiveness lies in its systematic innovation in computational efficiency, demonstrating that top-tier reasoning capabilities can be achieved without massive labeled data, significantly reducing training costs [2][3] - The model's open-source approach breaks technological monopolies, allowing developers worldwide to participate in its ecosystem, which has attracted hundreds of thousands of developers [2] Group 2: Nuclear Fusion and Quantum Computing - China's "artificial sun," the EAST device, achieved a world record by maintaining a plasma temperature of 100 million degrees Celsius for 1000 seconds, marking a significant step towards practical nuclear fusion energy [4] - The superconducting quantum computing prototype "Zuchongzhi 3" was developed, showcasing a computational speed that is a trillion times faster than the current fastest supercomputers, indicating a major advancement in quantum computing capabilities [5][6] Group 3: Advanced Materials and Brain-Computer Interfaces - A research team successfully created large-area two-dimensional metallic materials, marking a significant breakthrough in the field of two-dimensional materials [7] - China initiated its first invasive brain-computer interface clinical trial, allowing participants to control devices through thought, utilizing advanced flexible neural electrodes that minimize brain tissue damage [8][9] Group 4: Lunar Exploration and Plant Biology - The Chang'e 6 mission revealed the evolutionary history of the moon's far side, providing insights into volcanic activity and magnetic fields, which are crucial for understanding lunar geology [11][12] - A research team uncovered the molecular mechanisms behind how a single plant cell can develop into a complete plant, addressing a long-standing scientific question in plant biology [13] Group 5: Technological Innovations in Computing - Researchers developed a high-precision, scalable analog matrix computing chip, achieving digital-level precision in analog computing, which could revolutionize computational tasks in AI and communications [14][15] Group 6: National Strategic Initiatives - The 20th Central Committee of the Communist Party of China emphasized the importance of technological innovation in its strategic planning for the next five years, aiming to enhance China's technological self-reliance and drive new productive forces [16][17] Group 7: Military Advancements - China's first electromagnetic catapult aircraft carrier, Fujian, was commissioned, representing a leap in naval technology by utilizing advanced electromagnetic launch systems, enhancing operational capabilities [18]

｜2025年12月25日 星期四｜ NO.1国金证券：全球储能行业正开启增长新周期 国金证券指出，全球储能行业正开启增长新周期，预计2026年全球储能新增装机将达438GWh，同比增 长62%。增长动力由过去的单一新能源消纳，转变为"AI算力基建+能源转型刚需+电网阻塞"的三重驱 动。行业供需关系显著改善，由去库周期转入补库繁荣期，部分产业链环节将迎来量价齐升。 每日经济新闻 中信建投研报称，低空经济作为国家战略性新兴产业，需强化政策体系的系统性与前瞻性，破解空域管 理碎片化、审批效率需提高等核心矛盾。低空经济基础设施建设层面，需要加速硬基础设施网络布局、 推进低空数字基础设施与智慧化管理等。以eVTOL为核心的新型飞行器作为行业发展的关键载体，需 突破技术壁垒、完善产业链并加速商业化落地。展望未来，随着制度与技术创新的进一步深化，基础设 施的不断完善，应用场景的持续丰富拓展，低空经济产业有望实现良好增长，为新质生产力发展注入新 动能。 NO.3中信建投：聚焦核聚变产业中上游投资机会 12月25日，中信建投研报称，可控核聚变因燃料充足、清洁环保、能量密度高且相对安全等优势，被认 为是能源革命的终极解决方案，也 ...

Macroeconomic Dynamics - The US November CPI increased by 2.7% year-on-year, lower than the expected 3.1%, leading to a slight adjustment in market expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut [1] - Trump announced plans to soon reveal a candidate for the next Federal Reserve chair who supports low interest rates, along with intentions to reform housing and drug prices [1] - Sell-side views suggest that the US economy may trend towards "repair" or even "overheating" in the baseline scenario next year [1] Satellite Internet - Sell-side perspectives indicate that once satellites possess distributed computing capabilities, SpaceX's business model will transition from "communication" to "AI infrastructure" [1] - Related ETF: Satellite Industry ETF (on-market: 159218) [1] Semiconductor - Micron's performance and guidance significantly exceeded expectations, with Q2 revenue guidance far above market forecasts [1] - Chip shortages persist, leading Honda to suspend some production in Japan and China [1] - ADI plans to raise prices by approximately 15% across its entire product line starting February 2026 [1] - Rumors suggest that Changxin Storage's wafer prices have increased by 40%, with module prices rising by 100% [1] - Related ETF: Semiconductor Equipment ETF (on-market: 561980, off-market link: 020464) [1] Robotics - The world's first mass-produced humanoid embodied intelligent robot production line for new energy power battery PACK has commenced operations at CATL's base [1] - Related ETF: Robotics Index ETF (on-market: 560770, off-market link: 020482) [1] Artificial Intelligence - OpenAI is in preliminary discussions for a new round of financing, with a valuation potentially reaching $750 billion [1] - ByteDance's Doubao large model has surpassed 50 trillion daily calls [1] - The ChatGPT app store has officially launched, integrating applications such as Adobe and Apple Music [1] - Related ETFs: Cloud Computing ETF (on-market: 159890, off-market link: 021716), Software Leaders ETF (on-market: 159899, off-market link: 018385) [1] Nuclear Fusion - Trump Media Technology Group plans to merge with TAE Technologies, with intentions to begin site selection for a fusion power plant in 2026 [1] Market Observation - On December 18, trading volume was 1.6555 trillion, down by 155.7 billion. The market is digesting the previous day's gains, with defensive sectors like banking, coal, and oil leading the rise [1] - The satellite internet sector is experiencing a rebound as expected, with rotation in themes such as consumption, Ant Group's Afu, and nuclear fusion [1] - The market is awaiting the outcome of the Bank of Japan's interest rate decision, which, if in line with expectations, could trigger a rebound [1]

一、日央行鸽派加息，美联储非鹰派降息，下一任美联储主席人选必须"超级鸽派"。 12 月全球货币政策关键验证期，有望平 稳收官。美国中期选举年，货币 + 财政双宽重 新成为主导资产定价的预期。A 股面临的海外环境可能趋于平稳。 日央行加息 25 基点符合预期，而后续加息的幅度和时机取决于通胀与经济的演变， 日央行鸽派加息，日元兑美元进一步贬 值。套息交易退潮担忧缓解。此前，美联储降息 符合预期，重启扩表早于预期，且表述并不鹰派，叠加特朗普表示下一任美 联储主席人 选必须"超级鸽派"。至此，12 月全球货币政策关键验证期，资本市场大概率能平稳 度过。后续，美国中期选举 年，货币 + 财政双宽的中期预期，可能重新主导资产定价。 增量财政发力的窗口期，可能在美国政府关门问题解决后，2026 年 2 月后才是观察期。 未来一段时间，A 股面临的海外环境可能趋于平稳。 春季主线资产向上有阻力的判断不变，春季行情可能先在非主战场上演绎。11 月 下旬以来，A 股市场面临的宏观环境出现 了"还原"，风格特征也还原了10月底之前 的状态。但向上有阻力的问题并未根本解决。光连接 Alpha 逻辑演绎，但 26 年美股 科 技龙头 ...

Core Viewpoints - The market is expected to restart a volatile upward trend, with a favorable layout for mid-cap blue chips and strong thematic directions [9][13][14]. Market Analysis - The market is likely to experience a rebound after a period of hesitation, with the recent interest rate hike in Japan further reducing uncertainty. This sets the stage for a potential upward movement in the market [3][14]. Industry Comparison - From March 2023 to the present, the market has seen a consensus expectation for technology and dividend stocks. The report suggests that the trend of risk styles is nearing its end, with investment opportunities shifting towards mid-cap blue chips, which are expected to rise again after four years of dormancy [4][15]. Industry Allocation - Investment opportunities are identified in medium-risk stocks, focusing on three main lines to capitalize on mid-cap blue chips: 1. **Cyclical Sector**: Technology empowerment combined with supply constraints is leading to a re-evaluation of pricing. Attention is drawn to new materials, chemicals, and metals with improved supply-demand dynamics, as well as agricultural products [4][16]. 2. **Consumer Sector**: After years of stagnation, the consumer sector is at a turning point, with generally undervalued stocks and supply contraction suggesting potential price increases. Focus areas include technology-related consumption, new consumption trends, and traditional pharmaceutical consumption [4][16]. 3. **Manufacturing Sector**: The focus is shifting from mere "story speculation" to validating "orders and revenues." Key areas of interest include telecommunications, electronics, power equipment, and machinery with expected performance validation [4][16]. Thematic Investments - The report highlights several thematic investment areas to watch: - **Aerospace and Satellites**: The sector is expected to maintain strength, with potential catalysts from reusable rockets and accelerated IPO progress in satellite networks and commercial rockets [4][17]. - **Artificial Intelligence**: The AI theme is currently influenced by U.S. market narratives and may see short-term performance improvements following recent developments [5][17]. - **Service Consumption**: With significant recent gains, policies aimed at improving demand are expected to become a main theme by 2026, making service consumption a key area of focus [5][17]. - **Autonomous Driving**: Developments in domestic L3 licensing and profitability milestones for companies like Pony.ai, along with international validation phases for robotaxis, suggest a renewed focus on this sector [5][17]. - **Nuclear Fusion**: The nuclear fusion sector is anticipated to experience a series of industrial catalysts, transitioning from theoretical research to practical engineering, which is expected to generate substantial investment demand [5][18]. - **Semiconductor Expansion and Domestic Substitution**: Expectations for domestic wafer fabs to expand production next year, along with the capitalization of major domestic memory chip manufacturers, highlight opportunities in domestic chip manufacturing and related materials [5][19]. - **Upstream Price Increases**: The report notes a continuing trend of price increases in the short term, driven by supply constraints and structural demand growth, particularly in non-ferrous metals and the new energy sector [6][19].

Core Conclusions - The first AI Innovation Conference successfully held, leading to a scale-up phase in the commercial aerospace industry as major companies go public [1] - The national AI computing open ecosystem is accelerating, with a decoupled architecture promoting efficient collaboration across the industry chain [1] - Recommended companies for AI computing data centers include Dongfang Electric, Siyuan Electric, Sifang Co., and Igor [1] - The commercial aerospace sector is seeing a surge in interest as five leading companies aim for the Sci-Tech Innovation Board, with a focus on reusable rocket technology [1] Industry Dynamics - Indonesia plans to significantly reduce its nickel ore production target for 2026 to stabilize nickel prices, setting the target at approximately 250 million tons, down from 379 million tons in 2025 [2] - The lithium mine in Jiangxiawo has entered its first environmental assessment public stage [2] - Recommended companies in the nickel-cobalt sector include Greeenmei, with attention on Huayou Cobalt and Fangyuan Co. [2] - The energy work conference outlined key tasks for the 14th Five-Year Plan, emphasizing the importance of controlled nuclear fusion commercialization [2] Energy Sector Developments - The largest battery factory in the UK, a 15.8GWh facility by Envision AESC, has commenced operations, indicating a growing energy storage market [3] - The first humanoid robot production line for battery packs has been launched by CATL, marking a breakthrough in embodied intelligence [3] - The 600MW offshore wind power project by Datang has officially started construction, continuing the momentum in offshore wind project development [3] Price Trends - Silver prices have driven an increase in battery cell prices, with Topcon 183N cell prices stabilizing at 0.28-0.285 CNY/W, corresponding to an FOB China price increase to 0.038-0.041 USD/W [4] - The price of lithium carbonate has risen to 97,700 CNY/ton, up 3,150 CNY/ton week-on-week [21] - The price of cobalt has also increased, with average prices for electrolytic cobalt at 413,500 CNY/ton, up 3,000 CNY/ton week-on-week [24] Market Recommendations - In the energy storage sector, recommended companies include Sungrow Power Supply, Yiwei Lithium Energy, and CATL, with attention on Tongrun Equipment and Canadian Solar [3] - In the commercial aerospace sector, recommended companies include Maiwei Co., with attention on Hualing Cable and Dongfang Risen [1] - In the solid-state battery sector, recommended companies include Dangsheng Technology and Sanxiang New Materials, with attention on Taihe Technology and Honggong Technology [2]

2025年12月19日下午1点30分，亚太股市突然同步拉升。 A股上证指数在20分钟内上涨0.36%，深证成指翻红0.66%，创业板指一度冲高 1.5%。 日本日经225指数收盘上涨1.03%，韩国KOSPI指数上涨0.98%。 同一时间，现货黄金从4340美元快速跌至4319美元附近，白银则逆 势拉升逼近66美元/盎司。 这种同步异动的背后，是日本央行在当天上午公布的货币政策决议。 日本央行将政策利率从0.5%上调至0.75%，创下30年来最高水平。 央 行行长植田和男在发布会上表示，如果经济和物价按预期发展，未来将继续提高利率。 令人意外的是，这次加息并未引发市场恐慌。 相反，亚太股市出现集体飘红。 全市场超过4400只个股上涨，沪深两市成交额达到1.75万亿 元，较前一日放量719亿元。 可控核聚变板块成为最大赢家。 王子新材开盘一字涨停，连续第2日封板；百利电气在7分钟内直线涨停；宏微科技20%涨停，常辅股份涨 超16%。 板块指数盘初一度大涨逾3%，创历史新高。 引爆行情的是特朗普媒体与科技集团的一则公告。 该集团同意以全股票交易方式与核聚变能源企业TAE科技公司合并，交易总价值超过60 亿美元。 ...

Group 1 - China Shenhua plans to acquire assets worth 133.98 billion yuan from the State Energy Group and its subsidiary, significantly enhancing its resource reserves and production capacity [2] - ByteDance's net profit for the first three quarters of this year is approximately 40 billion dollars, with an expected annual profit of 50 billion dollars, driven by strong revenue growth and expansion in e-commerce and new markets [2] - The Bank of Japan raised interest rates by 25 basis points to 0.75%, the highest in 30 years, but the yen depreciated, raising concerns about future monetary policy [2] Group 2 - The lithium battery industry is experiencing a surge in orders, with Shengxin Lithium Energy signing a framework agreement worth over 20 billion yuan with Zhongchuang Xinhang for 2026-2030 [3] - The global largest silver ETF saw an increase in holdings by 47.95 tons, reaching a total of 16,066.24 tons, while silver prices surpassed 67 dollars per ounce, marking a historical high [3] - The price of electrolytic manganese has risen for 13 consecutive days, with a cumulative increase of nearly 15%, driven by supply constraints and improved demand [4] Group 3 - The nuclear fusion sector is attracting significant capital, with several A-share companies winning large contracts as the domestic nuclear fusion industry enters a bidding phase [5] - Eight chief economists predict that China's economy will show resilience in 2025, with fiscal policy expected to strengthen and monetary policy having room for rate cuts in 2026 [5]

Key Points Summary Core Viewpoints - The global monetary policy is entering a critical verification period in December, with expectations for a smooth conclusion. The U.S. midterm election year is likely to see a return of both monetary and fiscal easing as dominant factors in asset pricing, potentially stabilizing the overseas environment for A-shares [4][5][9]. - Spring liquidity in the stock market remains ample, with high-net-worth investors reallocating to private equity and significant net subscriptions for the CSI 300 and A500 ETFs. Key windows for stabilizing capital market expectations include the upcoming Chinese New Year, the Two Sessions in March, and a potential visit from Trump in April [4][5][9]. - The spring market may face upward resistance, with market styles reverting to pre-October conditions and limited upward space. The focus may shift to non-main battlefield themes such as industrial and policy themes, high-dividend plays, and various rebound opportunities [5][9]. Market Environment - The Bank of Japan's dovish rate hike of 25 basis points aligns with expectations, while the Federal Reserve's non-hawkish stance on rate cuts suggests a stable capital market environment ahead. The U.S. midterm elections may lead to renewed monetary and fiscal easing, impacting asset pricing [4][5]. - The spring market is characterized by ample liquidity, with private equity fund management scales increasing significantly in October. Insurance products are expected to perform well, and there is a notable increase in net subscriptions for major ETFs [4][5][9]. Investment Strategy - The medium-term outlook remains a "two-stage bull market" scenario, with the first stage (2025) already at a high level and currently in a phase of high-level fluctuations. The second stage (2026) is anticipated to be driven by fundamental improvements, technological trends, and increased asset allocation towards equities [9]. - The spring market is expected to see active themes in commercial aerospace, nuclear fusion, service consumption, and robotics, with high-dividend assets showing strong short-term value. The focus for cyclical investments will likely remain on industrial metals and basic chemicals [9].

Core Insights - The domestic nuclear fusion industry is entering a phase of intensive bidding, with significant increases in tender amounts observed in recent months [1] - In October, the tender amount approached 500 million yuan, while November saw a staggering 3.9 billion yuan in tenders [1] - China Fusion Energy Co., Ltd. has announced a new tender budget of nearly 150 million yuan since the fourth quarter [1] Group 1: Tender Amounts - The tender amounts for the nuclear fusion sector have surged, with October's figure nearing 500 million yuan and November's reaching 3.9 billion yuan [1] - China Fusion Energy Co., Ltd. has a new tender budget of approximately 150 million yuan in the fourth quarter [1] Group 2: Winning Companies - Over ten A-share companies have won or are pre-qualified for significant nuclear fusion contracts, including Qi Fan Cable, Wangzi New Materials, and Western Superconducting [1] - Qi Fan Cable won a contract for the procurement of 35kV power cables worth over 1.15 million yuan [1] - Wangzi New Materials' subsidiary, Ningbo Xinrong Electric Technology Co., Ltd., secured a contract worth 79.8 million yuan [1] - Western Superconducting's subsidiary, Xi'an Juneng Superconducting Wire Technology Co., Ltd., won a contract for superconducting wire worth 55 million yuan [1] Group 3: Detailed Bidder Information - A table lists various companies and their respective winning bids, including: - Wangzi New Materials: 79.8 million yuan through its subsidiary [2] - Antai Technology: 69.9 million yuan [2] - Western Superconducting: 55 million yuan through its subsidiary [2] - Other notable companies include Oriental Precision Engineering, China Construction, and others with bids ranging from 1.2 million to 49.1 million yuan [2]