上证指数日K线图 郭晨凯 制图 ◎记者 汪友若 6月A股或延续震荡偏强走势 对于6月市场整体表现，多数机构认同，当前政策对于资本市场的重视程度较高，或对A股形成较强支 撑。 光大证券表示，当前A股市场的估值处于2010年以来的均值附近，随着政策的积极发力，中长期资金带 来的增量资金或将持续流入市场，对资本市场形成托底，A股市场有望震荡上行。 华金证券认为，当前政策基调仍然较积极，且基本面有望持续修复，6月A股可能延续震荡偏强趋势。 该机构分析称，首先，端午假期和"6·18"消费旺季可能使得6月消费维持高增速；其次，海外补库存可 能使得6月出口增速回升；最后，稳增长政策加速落地可能使得6月制造业、基建投资维持高增速。 中国银河证券称，短期内，市场或仍维持震荡格局，但在国内一系列稳增长政策支持下，市场调整空间 有限。长期来看，A股市场走势仍将体现"以我为主"的内涵。随着中央汇金公司发挥好类"平准基金"作 用，政策大力推动中长期资金入市，A股市场平稳运行将具备更为坚实的基础。 在申万宏源证券看来，现阶段是A股市场对宏观因素变化不敏感的窗口期，各项资本市场政策构建了A 股对宏观扰动的"隔离墙"。发展资本市场是当前政策 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the winning probabilities of the equity and convertible bond markets were relatively insufficient, with various broad-based and convertible bond indices showing different trends. Short-term performance may be pressured by tariff disturbances. Since May, the equity market's rise has been characterized by a rebound from oversold conditions. Investors entered the market actively based on odds considerations, and with institutional support, the market continued to rise. However, after the Shanghai Composite Index reached a high on May 14, the logic of the rebound has changed, and market divergence has increased. Considering the uncertainty of future tariff policies, style rotation may accelerate. The dumbbell allocation strategy may continue to be advantageous [1][2][7] - In the short term, the winning probabilities of the equity and convertible bond markets are relatively insufficient and may be pressured by tariff disturbances. The risk of a significant short-term decline is limited, and the market will likely remain volatile. The dividend style benefits from policy support, and the technology growth style has re-entered the institutional view after a valuation correction [2][7] - It is recommended that investors focus on high-grade, fundamentally stable convertible bonds. The market style will still tend to be stable. Strategies should balance defense and theme flexibility. Suggested areas to focus on include the dividend, technology growth, and large consumption sectors [8] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalog 1 Market Observation - From May 26 to May 30, various broad-based and convertible bond indices showed different trends, with some convertible bond indices leading the gains. Balanced and equity-based valuations were compressed [7] - The market was volatile this week, with insufficient winning probabilities for major indices and significant sector differentiation. Environmental protection, medicine, and military industries led the gains. The small-cap style was dominant. The bond market had low volatility and weak trading sentiment due to the lack of a macro trading theme and limited odds space [2][7] - The equity market may be pressured by tariffs in the short term. The risk of a significant decline is limited, and the market will remain volatile. After the high on May 14, market divergence increased, and trading volume decreased. Style rotation may accelerate, with the dividend style benefiting from policies and the technology growth style re-entering institutional consideration after a valuation correction [2][7] - In the short term, investors are advised to focus on high-grade, fundamentally stable convertible bonds. Strategies should balance defense and theme flexibility. Suggested areas to focus on include the dividend, technology growth, and large consumption sectors [8] 2 Convertible Bond Market Tracking 2.1 Convertible Bond Market Trends - Not provided in the given content 2.2 Individual Convertible Bonds - Not provided in the given content 2.3 Convertible Bond Valuations - Not provided in the given content 2.4 Convertible Bond Prices - Not provided in the given content

反正，其次是估值优势吸引外资回流呢。目前，上证50的市盈率仅为9.8倍，有23%的股票处于破净状 态；而创业板的市盈率也已经降至历史5%分位的低位。这样的估值优势使得A股市场成为全球的价值 洼地，对外资具有较大的吸引力。 展望2025年呢，市场面临着一些特殊的压力和挑战。外部方面，特朗普宣布从6月1日起提高进口钢铁税 至50%，同时美国财长也表示中美贸易谈判已经停止，这可能对出口相关行业如光伏、机械等造成打 击。此外，美联储降息的时间推迟到12月，美债收益率上升，使得全球投资者变得更加谨慎。内部方 面，5月31日的股市交易额创下今年新低，仅为7150亿元，表明市场观望情绪浓厚。如果假期后交易额 不能恢复到万亿水平，反弹的机会可能会减小。 然而呢，要打破这一僵局，有三个关键力量值得关注。首先是政策支持和流动性的改善。央行降准释放 了1.2万亿的流动性，地方债的置换速度加快，银行的利息差也有所提高。这为金融股的估值修复提供 了空间，如市净率仅0.6倍的国有银行。此外，长期资金也在持续进场，保险公司每年增加30%的资金 投向A股，公募基金在消费板块的持仓比例也有所回升。 盈信量化（首源投资)端午节后A股市场或将面临 ...

Group 1 - The article highlights the shift in stock market strategies post new regulations in the public fund industry, with a focus on "left-side stock selection" becoming a key strategy as underperforming stocks gain traction [1] - Fund managers are increasingly prioritizing stocks with upward trends rather than those based on valuation metrics, indicating a departure from traditional valuation screening [1][2] - The market has shown rapid sector rotation, with a lack of strong profit-making opportunities, leading to a wide fluctuation in A-share markets [3] Group 2 - Defensive strategies are being emphasized by public fund managers due to anticipated market adjustments, suggesting a shift in stock selection thinking [4] - The current market sentiment reflects a return of risk aversion, with the overall market entering a state of oscillation and lacking clear direction [4] - Historical patterns indicate that the market typically performs well in the first quarter, but adjustments are expected in June and July, following the completion of annual reports [5][6] Group 3 - The article suggests that while the market may experience adjustments, the underlying fundamentals and liquidity provide some support, indicating that the extent of these adjustments may be limited [6] - Future market movements may depend on macroeconomic events, including domestic policies and U.S.-China trade negotiations, with potential for a staggered rise in response to these events [6]

Market Trends - The stock market is showing characteristics of "east hammer west stick" guerrilla tactics, with left-side stock selection becoming a key strategy post new regulations in the public fund industry [1] - Many public fund managers are focusing on right-side upward trends rather than valuation screening, indicating a shift in holding styles [1][3] - The recent market changes have led to frequent portfolio adjustments by institutional investors, reflecting a dynamic trading environment [3][4] Investment Strategies - Low valuation and profit factors have performed relatively poorly in the market this year, with public funds favoring growth strategies amid a strong valuation uplift since 2025 [3] - Fund managers are increasingly seeking stocks with compelling narratives rather than low valuation assets, even in a hot Hong Kong market [3] - The current market environment is characterized by a cautious approach, with a shift towards defensive strategies anticipated due to expected adjustments [6][9] Economic Indicators - The A-share market remains in a wide fluctuation pattern, with a lack of strong short-term themes, although potential incremental capital inflows are noted [4] - The current economic cycle shows a flatter transmission of corporate and household deposits to profits, indicating a cautious outlook for credit expansion [4] - The market is expected to experience a narrow range of fluctuations, supported by fundamentals and liquidity, while adjustments may be less severe than in previous years [9] Tactical Approaches - The investment strategy is described as a combination of "prolonged battle, consumption battle, and guerrilla warfare," emphasizing the need for tactical positioning and risk management [6][7] - The market is likely to see adjustments in the second quarter, with a focus on macroeconomic events influencing future trends [8][9] - Defensive strategies are recommended, targeting low-valuation large-cap stocks and sectors with potential for recovery [9]

Group 1 - The domestic equity market experienced fluctuations last week, with major indices showing a weekly change within 1% and an average daily trading volume around 1.1 trillion yuan [1] - The North Securities 50 Index reached a historical high after breaking through 1500 points but then showed significant adjustment [1] - The A-share technology growth sector showed signs of weakening, while the Hong Kong innovative drug sector performed well [1] Group 2 - China's innovative drug sector has rapidly developed in recent years, with the number of active innovative drugs developed by Chinese companies reaching 3,575 by the end of 2024, ranking first globally [1] - Approximately 31% of innovative drug candidate molecules introduced by large multinational pharmaceutical companies in 2024 are from China, a significant increase from 0% in 2019 [1] - In April, the added value of high-tech manufacturing above designated size grew by 10%, indicating a clear trend towards high-end industrial development [1] Group 3 - The Chinese economy has shown resilience against external shocks, with a year-on-year increase of 2.4% in total goods import and export from January to April [1] - The bond market experienced overall fluctuations, with long-term bonds performing slightly better than short-term ones, and credit bond yields generally declining [2] - The market's response to recent interest rate changes, including a 10 basis point rate cut, has been limited, with future observations focusing on changes in funding supply post-tax period [2]

Group 1 - The Hang Seng Index opened down 0.4%, with the Hang Seng Tech Index falling 0.32%. Miniso's stock dropped nearly 15%, with the company's first-quarter profit at 417 million yuan, a 29% decrease year-on-year [1] - Hong Kong stocks have shown a strong upward trend this year, attracting significant interest from A-share fund managers, particularly in new technology, new consumption, and pharmaceutical sectors [1] - Morgan Stanley analysts believe that Hong Kong stocks have high allocation value in the medium to long term, despite the need to monitor fluctuations in overseas markets and domestic demand [1] Group 2 - Yu Huan, managing the Great Wall Health Consumption Fund, emphasizes the importance of monitoring industries with improved competitive landscapes and low valuations in Hong Kong's tech and consumer sectors [2] - The Hong Kong stock market has become the best-performing tech market globally this year, driven by solid fundamentals and low valuations, with southbound funds being the main source of buying [2] - The Hong Kong IPO market is expected to see a significant recovery in 2025, providing a crucial window for domestic companies to raise foreign capital [2] Group 3 - CITIC Securities reports that the recent surge in A-share companies going public in Hong Kong is driven by strategic overseas expansion, regulatory conveniences, and improved liquidity in the Hong Kong market [3] - The Hong Kong government has implemented several supportive policies to enhance market liquidity and attractiveness, including lowering stamp duties and optimizing trading mechanisms [3] - The appeal of dividend assets in the Hong Kong market is expected to grow due to anticipated reforms and improvements in international liquidity, making them attractive for medium to long-term investments [3]

5月份，增量政策可能不多，但储备政策不少，政策定力仍然很强，目标是应对关税的冲击。因此，市 场在度过业绩风险后仍然会关注科技成长主题。内需相关板块仍会是国内政策的首要着力点，低利率环 境下业绩稳定的高股息板块仍有配置价值。除此以外，在可能出现的关税缓和过程中，那些品牌力强、 定价能力强、替代难度大的公司有望迎来估值的修复。 谭小兵：看好有边际变化的成长股 4月份市场呈现V字形走势，内需与红利好于成长股。展望5月份，进入业绩真空期，市场对指数填补之 后能否继续上攻还是存在分歧，个人相对还是偏乐观：一方面是国内政策会逐步兑现；另一方面中美谈 判或拉开序幕，这有利于修复市场的风险偏好。方向上看好有边际变化的成长股。 回顾4月，美国"对等关税"来袭，全球市场剧烈波动，就中国资产来看，月内A股和港股主要指数收 跌。进入5月，尽管外部不确定性因素依然存在，但中美关税谈判窗口有望来临，国内一揽子增量政策 也在加速落地，为国内股市稳定发展带来有力支撑。 展望后市，市场将会如何演绎？哪些投资机会值得关注？一起来看看长城基金权益基金经理们的观点吧 ~ 杨建华：持续关注关税政策 展望5月，关税政策及中美贸易谈判仍将会成为左右市场的 ...

Group 1 - The market is expected to continue its oscillation in the short to medium term, with accelerated style rotation driven by monetary policy easing and strong export performance [1] - In May, a rotation pattern of "risk aversion - consumption - growth" may re-emerge, starting with technology growth stocks, followed by a shift towards defensive assets as macroeconomic risks increase [1] - The recovery of the consumption sector is anticipated after the defensive phase, supported by policy dividends and improving consumption data, leading to new investment opportunities driven by domestic demand [1] Group 2 - The market shows resilience due to dual drivers of policy support and economic recovery, despite short-term fluctuations in trading volume reflecting cautious sentiment [2] - The first quarter saw a positive turnaround in net profit growth for all A-shares, indicating improving corporate earnings and strengthening internal economic recovery [2] - The effects of monetary policy easing and long-term capital inflows are expected to enhance liquidity, supporting a continued recovery in consumption and investment sectors [2]