期货市场交易指引 2025 年 12 月 31 日 | | 宏观金融 | | --- | --- | | ◆股指： | 中长期看好，逢低做多 | | ◆国债： | 震荡运行 | | | 黑色建材 | | ◆焦煤： | 短线交易 | | ◆螺纹钢： | 区间交易 | | ◆玻璃： | 震荡偏强 | | | 有色金属 | | ◆铜： | 谨慎持多，轻仓过节 | | ◆铝： | 建议加强观望 | | ◆镍： | 建议观望或逢高做空 | | ◆锡： | 区间交易 | | ◆黄金： | 区间交易 | | ◆白银： | 区间交易 | | ◆碳酸锂： | 区间震荡 | | | 能源化工 | | ◆PVC： | 区间交易 | | ◆烧碱： | 暂时观望 | | ◆纯碱： | 暂时观望 | | ◆苯乙烯： | 区间交易 | | ◆橡胶： | 区间交易 | | ◆尿素： | 区间交易 | | ◆甲醇： | 区间交易 | | ◆聚烯烃： | 偏弱震荡 | | | 棉纺产业链 | | ◆棉花棉纱： | 震荡偏强 | | ◆苹果： | 震荡运行 | | ◆红枣： | 触底返弹 | | | 农业畜牧 | | ◆生猪： | 近月逢高滚动空 ...

Core Viewpoint - The "14th Five-Year Plan" outlines strategic opportunities and challenges for China's economic and social development, emphasizing high-quality growth and a focus on various key sectors [2][3]. Economic Opportunities - The plan identifies numerous new opportunities, including the development of a modern industrial system and the strengthening of the real economy, with specific mentions of sectors such as mining, metallurgy, chemicals, and advanced technologies [3]. - The goal is to achieve significant results in high-quality development, with economic growth maintained within a reasonable range and an increase in domestic consumption driving economic growth [2][3]. Economic Challenges - Challenges include unbalanced development, insufficient effective demand, and pressures on employment and income growth, which need to be addressed to convert challenges into opportunities [4]. - The plan sets a target for per capita GDP to reach the level of moderately developed countries by 2035, requiring an average annual GDP growth of approximately 4.17% from 2025 to 2035 [4]. Consumer Income and Spending - The plan aims to increase residents' income through various channels, including wage, operational, property, and transfer income, with a focus on enhancing the share of labor remuneration in national income distribution [7][11]. - There is an emphasis on improving the structure of income distribution to promote a more reasonable allocation of income among residents [7]. Investment and Consumption - The plan suggests that increasing government spending on social welfare and implementing direct consumer support policies will enhance residents' consumption capacity [8][11]. - The importance of stabilizing the stock market to increase residents' property income and subsequently boost consumption is highlighted [14]. Capital Market Development - The stability of the capital market is crucial for enhancing investor confidence and ensuring sustainable income growth, which in turn affects consumer behavior [14][15]. - Encouraging long-term funding sources for technological innovation is essential for fostering a robust capital market and supporting economic growth [15][18]. Technological Innovation and Global Competitiveness - The plan emphasizes the need for China to cultivate high-quality listed companies with international competitiveness, particularly in the technology sector, to participate in global competition [18]. - The focus is on creating a favorable investment environment for companies to grow and attract long-term capital into the market [18].

该危机可能威胁约130万个非洲就业岗位，尤其是轻工业领域。尽管美国国会两党支持延期至2028 年，但特朗普政府仅倾向于延期一年，并可能将南非排除在外。南非约占AGOA进口总额的一半，其汽 车产业尤为关键，一旦被剔除，将冲击相关产业并影响美国关键矿产供应链。 在此背景下，AGOA的不确定性正削弱美国在非洲的战略布局。非洲拥有丰富的钴和铂族金属资 源，对美国新能源和国防产业至关重要。这一局势凸显了加快推进非洲大陆自由贸易区（AfCFTA）的 必要性。该市场覆盖14亿人口、规模达3.4万亿美元，是非洲实现贸易自主与长期增长的关键路径。 目前，AfCFTA已就92%以上税则项目达成原产地规则协议，跨境支付系统（PAPSS）也已在多个 国家运行。但专家指出，其全面成效仍需5至10年才能显现。作为AfCFTA秘书处所在地，加纳亟需展 现更强的政治意愿，推动区域一体化进程，将非洲大陆市场转化为可持续增长动力。 （原标题：AGOA动荡或使非洲贸易格局重构） 据"加纳广播公司"12月29日报道，美国已启动将《非洲增长与机遇法案》（AGOA）延期三年的程 序。该法案已于2025年9月30日到期，美众议院筹款委员会警告称，若长期失 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article outlines key policy directions and developments in China's economic and financial landscape as the year comes to a close, focusing on fiscal, monetary, and industrial strategies for 2026. Fiscal Policy - The National Fiscal Work Conference emphasized expanding fiscal spending to ensure necessary expenditure levels, optimizing government bond tools, and enhancing fiscal-financial collaboration to amplify policy effectiveness [3][27]. - The report on the 2025 fiscal budget indicated a focus on directing new special bond quotas towards regions with well-prepared projects and high investment efficiency, while also addressing local government hidden debt issues [3][11]. - The Ministry of Finance and other regulatory bodies are committed to strict measures against the creation of new hidden debts, reinforcing accountability for local governments [3][15]. Monetary and Capital Markets - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) highlighted the importance of integrating incremental and stock policies to support key sectors such as domestic demand, technological innovation, and small and medium enterprises [4][15]. - The PBOC's Financial Stability Report for 2025 aims to create a favorable environment for long-term investments in the A-share market, enhancing the scale and proportion of various long-term funds [4][29]. Industrial Development - The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) called for optimizing traditional industries, particularly in steel and petrochemicals, by balancing supply and demand and promoting structural reforms [5][26]. - The NDRC's recent initiatives include fostering innovation in emerging sectors like new energy vehicles and lithium batteries, while addressing issues of "involution" in competition to maintain a fair market environment [5][26]. - The Industrial and Information Technology Conference outlined strategies to stabilize manufacturing investments, enhance industrial chain resilience, and promote technological innovation [5][22]. Encouragement of Foreign Investment - The updated Encouragement Directory for Foreign Investment aims to attract more foreign capital into advanced manufacturing, modern services, and high-tech sectors, particularly in central and western regions of China [17][19]. - The 2025 version of the directory includes 1,679 entries, with a net increase of 205 entries compared to the previous version, reflecting a strategic focus on sectors like smart manufacturing and modern service industries [18][19]. Infrastructure Development - The NDRC's article on modern infrastructure emphasizes the need for high-quality construction of strategic transport corridors and energy networks, as well as enhancing safety measures for critical infrastructure [21][26]. - The focus on developing a comprehensive infrastructure system includes promoting low-altitude and hub economies, as well as ensuring robust safety protocols for major energy projects [21][26].

Core Insights - The offshore RMB has officially broken the "7" mark against the USD for the first time since October 2024, indicating a significant shift in the currency's trend [1][2] - The recent appreciation of the RMB is attributed to both external factors, such as the Federal Reserve's monetary policy shift, and strong internal economic fundamentals [3] External Factors - The Federal Reserve's recent interest rate cuts have led to a weakening of the USD, contributing to the RMB's rise [3] - The RMB's appreciation is also supported by China's economic resilience, with a notable trade surplus exceeding $1 trillion in the first eleven months of the year [4] Corporate Impact - Importing companies benefit from the RMB's appreciation, as it reduces procurement costs. For instance, a large manufacturing firm estimates saving 10 million RMB monthly due to favorable exchange rates [5] - Conversely, export-oriented companies face pressure on profit margins due to the stronger RMB, necessitating a reassessment of order feasibility [5] - Over 30 A-share companies have announced plans to engage in foreign exchange hedging to mitigate risks associated with currency fluctuations [5] Consumer Impact - The appreciation of the RMB has tangible benefits for consumers, particularly for families planning to study abroad, as it reduces the cost of tuition significantly [6] - Travel and shopping costs for overseas consumers are also decreasing, enhancing the affordability of international experiences [7] Policy Stance - Financial regulatory bodies emphasize maintaining the RMB's stability at a reasonable level, with recent meetings reinforcing the need for market resilience and preventing excessive fluctuations [8] Future Outlook - Market analysts express cautious optimism regarding the RMB's future, with expectations of continued strength in the short term [9] - Predictions for 2026 suggest a moderate appreciation trend, with estimates indicating the RMB could approach the 6.9 mark by year-end [9]

Core Viewpoint - The "Action Plan" for the Yangtze River Delta aims to establish a model for ecological protection and green development, marking a significant step towards building a "Beautiful China" [1] Group 1: Green Development - The plan emphasizes the deep integration of digitalization, intelligence, and greening in traditional industries such as petrochemicals, steel, and textiles to enhance production efficiency and reduce emissions [2] - Achieving standardized shore power facilities at regional docks will help reduce fuel emissions from ships during port stays, improving air quality [2] - The overall elimination of National III diesel trucks in the region is expected to significantly lower exhaust emissions in the transportation sector, contributing to better air quality [2] Group 2: Ecological Protection - The Yangtze River Delta faces challenges like water pollution despite its rich water resources; enhancing water ecological protection and restoration is crucial for sustainable development [3] - The plan sets targets for improving water ecological environments, with the construction rate of beautiful rivers and lakes reaching 44% and beautiful bays over 40% [3] Group 3: Reform and Innovation - The expansion of pollutant trading pilot programs is aimed at incentivizing companies to reduce emissions through market mechanisms, enhancing resource allocation efficiency [3] - Exploring financial support models for beautiful city construction will provide funding for ecological protection and green development projects, addressing funding shortages [3] Group 4: Challenges and Opportunities - The plan acknowledges challenges in regional collaborative governance, particularly in breaking down administrative barriers for deeper cooperation [3] - Traditional enterprises may face pressures related to technological upgrades and funding during the green transition, necessitating supportive government policies [3] Group 5: Overall Impact - The implementation of the "Action Plan" is expected to yield significant results in ecological protection and green development, positioning the Yangtze River Delta as a pioneering and exemplary region for "Beautiful China" initiatives, offering replicable experiences for other areas [4]

但如果你再往下一层看，就会发现另一组完全不同的现实，工业企业利润在下滑，传统出口行业普遍承 压，很多企业"忙了一年，账却不好看"。 人民币对美元再次站上"7"以内，贸易顺差首次突破1万亿美元，乍一看，这像是所有宏观叙事里最让人 安心的组合：货币稳、出口强、国家账面漂亮。 现实情况是，人民币对美元确实保持了相对稳定甚至偏强的走势，但与此同时，对欧元、日元以及不少 新兴市场货币，却呈现出明显的阶段性走弱。这种"分裂式"表现，本身就说明了一点：这不是一次简单 的市场自发波动，而是一种更具方向性的调节结果。 这不是数据打架，也不是谁算错了账，而是一场已经开始、但尚未完成的结构性换轨。真正的变化，往 往就藏在这种"不舒服"里。 在这种情况下，如果人民币对所有货币同步走强，反而会直接压缩出口企业的价格空间。于是我们看到 的，是一种更精细的状态，对美元稳住金融预期，对非美货币留出贸易弹性。 更关键的是，中国出口结构本身已经发生变化。很多人依然停留在"低端制造"的旧印象里，但现实是， 电子设备、机械、化工等核心出口行业，大量使用的是进口零部件和原材料。当人民币相对稳定甚至偏 强时，这些以外币计价的中间品成本反而会下降，形成天 ...

（来源：中国工业报） ■中国工业报编辑部 国家繁荣，民族昌盛，没有工业提供强大的物质技术基础几无可能。 站在"十四五"即将收官、"十五五"序幕待启的重要节点，深情挥别2025，我们对工业强则国强、工业兴 则民富有了更真切的感受，发自内心深处的民族自豪感和自信心拉满，昂扬奋进的中国工业作了最鲜活 的注解。 今天的中国工业，产业体系完整，产业生态坚韧，产业创新勃发。一大批关键核心技术和战略急需基础 产品实现工程化、产业化突破，集成电路、工业母机、医疗装备等重点产业链自主可控水平稳步提升， 高端化、智能化、绿色化、融合化持续推进，向新而行的路线图清晰明了，新质生产力不断取得新进 展，工业高质量发展的强劲动力激越澎湃。 江山不言，江山作证。 从九三阅兵亮相的"东风-5C"液体洲际战略核导弹打击范围覆盖全球，到福建舰开展首次海上实兵训 练、四川舰完成首次航行试验，大国重器铸就和平盾牌护卫华夏安康。 从雅下水电站穿透喜马拉雅断裂带，零生态阻断深地能源革命，到世界第一高桥花江峡谷大桥串起地 球"裂缝"，国产超级装备精准构建人与自然和谐共生标杆。 从神舟二十号航天员乘组搭乘神舟二十一号飞船安全返回，到短短16天完成神舟二十二 ...

Core Viewpoint - Warren Buffett will retire as CEO of Berkshire Hathaway on January 1, 2026, after 60 years in the role, handing over to Greg Abel, who will take on the role of chairman behind the scenes. Buffett's legacy includes a company valued at over $1 trillion, with post-tax profitability nearing $50 billion and cash reserves exceeding $350 billion [4][5]. Group 1 - The transition of CEO has generated significant buzz in the business and investment communities since Buffett's unexpected announcement of retirement at the shareholder meeting in May [5]. - Buffett's cautious approach in recent years has slowed down the company's performance, with Berkshire's large cash holdings negatively impacting its results [6][7]. - As of December 29, 2025, Berkshire Hathaway's Class A shares increased by 10.44%, lagging behind the S&P 500's 17.41% gain, and the company has underperformed the index over the past 3, 10, and 15 years [7]. Group 2 - Over 80% of Berkshire's revenue comes from the U.S., and the company has diversified its business, resembling a mutual fund in the stock market [8]. - Greg Abel, who has been with Berkshire for many years and has experience in managing its energy and non-insurance businesses, is seen as an unknown factor in the eyes of the public [9]. - Analysts note that while Abel has strong operational and financial management skills, he lacks the investment management experience and reputation that Buffett built over 60 years [10]. Group 3 - Buffett's investment strategy is characterized by a focus on value investing, viewing stocks as ownership in businesses and planning for long-term holds [30]. - His investment process involves thorough due diligence, recognizing quality companies, and waiting for exceptional opportunities to invest [30]. - Buffett's unique approach includes increasing his holdings when stock prices drop, contrasting with the typical investor behavior of selling during downturns [31]. Group 4 - Buffett's success is attributed to five core traits: alertness and decisiveness in judgment, simplicity in analysis, the ability to distinguish between great and mediocre investments, long-term focus, and flexibility in improving investment strategies [34][36]. - He has navigated various market conditions, maintaining exceptional performance despite increasing competition and market complexities [36]. - Buffett emphasizes the importance of investing in quality companies and holding them for the long term, which has proven to be a successful strategy [36][40]. Group 5 - Buffett's philanthropic efforts include a significant donation of $31 billion to the Gates Foundation, which doubled its annual funding capacity, and he co-founded the "Giving Pledge" to encourage billionaires to donate a majority of their wealth [62][63]. - His approach to investing and philanthropy reflects a commitment to traditional American values and a belief in the long-term potential of the U.S. economy [20][60]. - Buffett's legacy is not only in his financial achievements but also in his life philosophy, which emphasizes doing the right thing for businesses and shareholders [66].

Group 1 - The State Council's tariff adjustment plan for 2026 aims to enhance the linkage between domestic and international markets by implementing provisional tariff rates lower than the most-favored-nation (MFN) rates on 935 items, promoting high-level technological self-reliance and modern industrial system construction [1] - The plan includes reducing import tariffs on key components and advanced materials, such as CNC hydraulic air cushions and composite joints, to support technological development and economic transformation [1] - The adjustment will also lower tariffs on medical products like artificial blood vessels and diagnostic kits to improve public health and welfare [1] Group 2 - The plan continues to implement preferential tariff rates for certain imported goods from 34 trade partners under 24 free trade agreements, promoting regional economic integration [2] - It maintains zero-tariff treatment for 100% of products from 43 least developed countries, reflecting China's commitment to supporting their development [2] - The tariff quota management for eight categories of imported goods, including wheat, remains unchanged, with a 1% provisional tariff rate on urea and other fertilizers, which is expected to stabilize agricultural production costs [2][3] Group 3 - The reduction in import tariffs is expected to lower costs for imported products, enhancing consumer purchasing power and stimulating domestic consumption [3] - The adjustment will impact corporate costs positively, allowing companies to reduce production costs and improve efficiency and product quality [3] - Increased competition from foreign imports may drive domestic companies to accelerate technological upgrades, facilitating industry transformation and upgrading [3]