Group 1: Report Investment Ratings - No investment ratings provided in the report Group 2: Core Views - The long - term shutdown of the US government has increased short - term concerns about market liquidity, which mainly has a short - term impact. The supply of copper mines remains tight, and the supply situation in non - US regions has been alleviated to some extent. The demand for refined copper has been affected by high prices, but the downstream procurement demand has increased after the price decline [2][5] - The supply and demand of alumina are still in a significant surplus. Although there are expectations of production cuts, actual cuts have not occurred, and the import window is open. New projects are progressing smoothly, putting pressure on prices [13] - The US government shutdown has affected market liquidity, but the supply - demand pattern of electrolytic aluminum is still tight. Overseas production cuts have intensified supply concerns, and domestic consumption shows resilience, so the price is expected to rise after corrections [19] - The US government shutdown has a short - term impact on the market. The supply of casting aluminum alloy is tight, raw material costs are rising, and demand is improving, making the price easy to rise and hard to fall [29] - The domestic zinc smelter's winter storage scale has expanded, and the profit margin of smelters has been narrowed. The consumption peak season is over, but the opening of the export window will relieve the oversupply situation [36] - Some domestic lead - storage enterprises have reduced production, while the supply side is expected to increase. Considering the supply increase and the arrival of the consumption off - season, the lead price may decline [41] - The LME nickel inventory accumulation speed has slowed down, and the supply - demand is still loose. The nickel price is in a wide - range shock with a downward - moving center [46] - The terminal demand for stainless steel is not optimistic, and the supply is sufficient. The cost support is not strong, so the price trend is weak [49] - The Fed has differences on interest rate cuts, and the dollar index has reached a new high. The tin ore supply is still tight, and the demand is slowly recovering. The tin price is in a weak shock [57] - In November, the demand for industrial silicon has weakened, and the supply has been reduced. The price has limited downward and upward space, and it is more cost - effective to buy at low prices [61] - In November, the supply and demand of polysilicon have both decreased, and the supply reduction is greater. The spot price has no upward momentum in the short term, and it is advisable to buy after the price stabilizes [69] - In November, the supply and demand of lithium carbonate have tightened, and the price may rebound after a short - term decline. It is advisable to arrange short positions after the rebound [74] Group 3: Summary by Industry Copper - **Market Review**: The main contract of Shanghai copper 2512 closed at 85,670 yuan/ton, down 0.88%. The spot price returned to the 85,000 yuan/ton level, and the downstream replenishment increased [1] - **Important Information**: The US government shutdown affected market liquidity. Glencore plans to shut down a smelter, and some mining companies have adjusted their production plans [2][3] - **Logic Analysis**: Macro factors and supply - demand situations affect the copper market. The supply of copper mines is tight, and the demand has been affected by high prices [5] Alumina - **Market Review**: The futures price of alumina 2601 decreased by 3 yuan to 2,772 yuan/ton. The spot prices in different regions showed different changes [7] - **Related Information**: Some electrolytic aluminum plants purchased alumina, and some alumina enterprises had production adjustments due to environmental factors. New projects are in progress [8][12] - **Logic Analysis**: The supply - demand surplus and factors such as production cuts and new projects affect the price [13] - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral: Weak shock; Arbitrage: Temporary wait - and - see; Options: Temporary wait - and - see [14][15] Electrolytic Aluminum - **Market Review**: The futures price of Shanghai aluminum 2512 decreased by 85 yuan to 21,395 yuan/ton. The spot prices in different regions declined [17] - **Related Information**: The US government shutdown affected market liquidity, the LME planned to formulate rules, and some aluminum plants had production adjustments [17][18] - **Trading Logic**: The US government shutdown affected the price, but the supply - demand pattern is tight, and the price is expected to rise after corrections [19] - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral: Buy on dips; Arbitrage: Choose the opportunity to go long on SHFE aluminum and short on LME aluminum; Options: Temporary wait - and - see [20][21][22] Casting Aluminum Alloy - **Market Review**: The futures price of casting aluminum alloy 2512 decreased by 120 to 20,795 yuan/ton. The spot prices in different regions declined [24] - **Related Information**: The US - China tariff adjustment and economic data were released, and the US government shutdown affected market liquidity [24][27] - **Trading Logic**: The US government shutdown has a short - term impact. The supply is tight, costs are rising, and demand is improving, making the price easy to rise [29] - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral: Buy on dips; Arbitrage: Temporary wait - and - see; Options: Temporary wait - and - see [30] Zinc - **Market Review**: The futures price of Shanghai zinc 2512 decreased by 0.15% to 22,650 yuan/ton. The spot market had active trading among traders [32] - **Related Information**: Some mining companies' zinc production data changed [33][34][35] - **Logic Analysis**: The smelter's winter storage and profit situation, consumption season, and export window affect the market [36] - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral: Hold profitable long positions; Arbitrage: Arrange to buy SHFE zinc and sell LME zinc; Options: Temporary wait - and - see [37] Lead - **Market Review**: The futures price of Shanghai lead 2512 increased by 0.17% to 17,475 yuan/ton. The spot market had different trading attitudes among holders and downstream enterprises [39] - **Related Information**: A lead - zinc mine obtained a production license [40] - **Logic Analysis**: The production situation of lead - storage enterprises and the supply - side situation affect the price [41] - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral: Hold profitable short positions; Arbitrage: Temporary wait - and - see; Options: Temporary wait - and - see [42][43] Nickel - **Market Review**: The main contract of Shanghai nickel NI2512 decreased by 290 to 120,030 yuan/ton. The spot premiums changed [45] - **Important Information**: The sales volume of new energy vehicles increased, and the nickel price and production situation in Indonesia changed [46] - **Logic Analysis**: The LME nickel inventory and supply - demand situation affect the price, which is in a wide - range shock [46] - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral: Weak shock; Arbitrage: Temporary wait - and - see; Options: Sell the 2512 contract wide - straddle combination [48] Stainless Steel - **Market Review**: The main contract of stainless steel SS2512 decreased by 35 to 12,535 yuan/ton. The spot prices of cold - rolled and hot - rolled products were given [49] - **Important Information**: India relaxed the import restrictions on stainless steel [49] - **Logic Analysis**: The terminal demand and supply situation, as well as cost factors, affect the price trend [49] - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral: Sell on rallies; Arbitrage: Temporary wait - and - see [50][51] Tin - **Market Review**: The main contract of Shanghai tin 2512 closed at 282,090 yuan/ton, down 0.89%. The spot price decreased, and the downstream purchasing sentiment improved [53] - **Related Information**: The US government shutdown, and some semiconductor - related events occurred [54][56] - **Logic Analysis**: The Fed's attitude, tin ore supply, and demand situation affect the price, which is in a weak shock [57] - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral: Weak shock; Options: Temporary wait - and - see [58][59] Industrial Silicon - **Important Information**: The furnace - starting situation in Yunnan changed, and the electricity price increased, affecting the production of industrial silicon [61] - **Logic Analysis**: The supply and demand situation in November affects the price, with limited downward and upward space [61] - **Strategy Suggestion**: Unilateral: Buy on dips; Arbitrage: None; Options: Sell out - of - the - money put options [62][63][64] Polysilicon - **Important Information**: Hubei launched a new energy project price - settlement mechanism bidding [66] - **Logic Analysis**: The supply and demand situation in November affects the price, and it is advisable to buy after the price stabilizes [69] - **Strategy Suggestion**: Unilateral: Buy after the price correction; Arbitrage: Reverse spread on far - month contracts; Options: None [71] Lithium Carbonate - **Market Review**: The futures price of lithium carbonate 2601 decreased by 360 to 79,140 yuan/ton. The spot prices decreased [72] - **Important Information**: Some lithium - related companies' production and project progress were reported [73] - **Logic Analysis**: The supply and demand situation in November affects the price, which may rebound after a short - term decline [74] - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral: Arrange short positions after the rebound; Arbitrage: Temporary wait - and - see; Options: Sell out - of - the - money call options [75]

Group 1: Gold Market Analysis - The gold market is expected to consolidate in a lower trading range of $3,800 to $4,050 per ounce due to concerns over the uncertain outlook for Federal Reserve rate cuts and buying demand [1] - After this consolidation phase, the average gold price may reach above $4,400 per ounce in the first half of 2026 [1] Group 2: Oil Market Outlook - Oil prices are declining due to expectations of oversupply, particularly in the first quarter of 2026 when demand typically weakens [2] - The oil market may face a significant oversupply situation next year unless there are supply disruptions caused by sanctions [2] Group 3: Euro and Pound Analysis - The euro is expected to rebound supported by a strong economic fundamental in the Eurozone, with forecasts suggesting EUR/USD could rise to 1.20 in Q4 2023 and 1.26 by Q3 2026 [3] - The British pound may weaken further if the Bank of England cuts rates in December, with expectations for EUR/GBP to rise to 0.89 in Q1 2026 and 0.90 in Q2 2026 [4] Group 4: Australian Economic Outlook - The Reserve Bank of Australia has maintained its benchmark interest rate, indicating that the easing cycle may have ended, with inflation risks remaining high [5] - The cash rate is likely to stay at 3.6% as inflation levels pose challenges to previous narratives of slowing inflation [5] Group 5: Domestic Market Insights - The resumption of government bond trading in October is not expected to affect the anticipated reserve requirement ratio cut in Q4 [6] - The current environment supports the resumption of bond trading, which may enhance long-term liquidity for banks [6] Group 6: Dollar Index and Economic Projections - The dollar index has surpassed 100, but the current movement is viewed as a rebound rather than the start of a new appreciation cycle [7] - The market is pricing in a greater likelihood of no rate cuts in December, which could lead to significant adjustments in future policy expectations [7] Group 7: Gold Tax Policy Impact - The new gold tax policy is expected to influence the behavior of three types of market participants, encouraging on-exchange trading and potentially increasing costs for downstream businesses [8] - The policy clarifies the distinction between investment and non-investment uses of gold, impacting how transactions are reported [8] Group 8: Copper Market Dynamics - A downward trend in supply is emerging, with major copper mining companies expected to see a nearly 5% year-on-year decline in production by Q3 2025 [9] - The combination of raw material shortages and stable demand may lead to a significant supply gap in the global refined copper market, with LME copper prices projected to exceed $10,000 per ton [9]

Core Viewpoint - Recent concerns over overseas liquidity have led to a decline in copper prices, with a closing drop of 0.88%. The market is closely monitoring supply and demand dynamics moving forward [1] Group 1: Market Dynamics - Copper prices opened lower and experienced a slight narrowing of the decline during the day, closing down 0.88% [1] - The rebound of the US dollar and the overall decline in commodity prices in the US market have contributed to the downward shift in copper prices [1] - Despite an increase in production in the first nine months of the year, Codelco has revised its 2025 production forecast down from 1.34-1.37 million tons to 1.31-1.34 million tons [1] Group 2: Supply and Demand - Concerns about tight supply persist as some overseas mining companies have lowered their production and sales forecasts [1] - Domestic copper concentrate processing fees are hovering around -40 USD, indicating a challenging environment for producers [1] - The social inventory of refined copper in China continues to accumulate, suggesting limited purchasing willingness from downstream sectors due to high prices [1] Group 3: Future Outlook - Jinrui Futures indicates that the market logic may remain macro-driven, with less optimistic expectations for US-China negotiations and differing views on the Federal Reserve's future policy path, leading to a stronger dollar and a pullback in copper prices [1] - The macroeconomic situation has not fully reversed, and the tight supply backdrop remains unchanged, suggesting that copper prices may maintain high volatility in the short term [1]

Core Viewpoint - Copper stocks have risen, driven by news of Glencore's plans to close its smelter and copper refining plant in Quebec, Canada, due to environmental issues and high renovation costs. This is expected to widen the supply-demand gap, leading to higher copper prices in the future [1] Group 1: Market Reaction - Jiangxi Copper (600362) shares increased by 3.42%, reaching HKD 30.88 [1] - China Nonferrous Mining (01258) shares rose by 2.27%, reaching HKD 13.57 [1] - Luoyang Molybdenum (603993) shares gained 1.75%, reaching HKD 15.72 [1] Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - Citic Securities reports that the supply-demand gap for copper is expected to widen, with copper prices potentially reaching new peaks by 2026 [1] - Major copper mining companies experienced a nearly 5% year-on-year decline in production in Q3 2025, with Q4 expected to continue this contraction [1] - Domestic refined copper supply is anticipated to shrink due to raw material shortages and stable demand, leading to a moderate reduction in domestic inventory [1] Group 3: Future Price Projections - The global refined copper supply gap is projected to widen by 50% next year due to low supply and steady demand [1] - LME copper prices are expected to demonstrate upward elasticity, potentially exceeding USD 10,000 per ton [1] - The copper sector is recommended for investment opportunities based on these dynamics [1]

Core Viewpoint - Copper stocks have risen due to supply concerns following Glencore's planned closure of its smelter and copper refinery in Quebec, Canada, driven by environmental issues and high renovation costs [1] Group 1: Company Performance - Jiangxi Copper Co. (00358) increased by 3.42%, trading at HKD 30.88 [1] - China Nonferrous Mining (01258) rose by 2.27%, trading at HKD 13.57 [1] - Luoyang Molybdenum (03993) gained 1.75%, trading at HKD 15.72 [1] Group 2: Market Analysis - Citic Securities reports that the supply-demand gap for copper is expected to widen, with copper prices potentially reaching new highs by 2026 [1] - Major copper mining companies experienced a nearly 5% year-on-year decline in production in Q3 2025, with Q4 expected to continue this contraction [1] - The anticipated raw material shortage and potential "anti-involution" factors are likely to contribute to a reduction in domestic refined copper supply in Q4, alongside stable demand [1] Group 3: Price Forecast - Global refined copper supply gap is projected to widen by 50% next year due to low supply and steady demand [1] - LME copper prices are expected to exceed USD 10,000 per ton, reflecting significant upward elasticity [1] - The copper sector is recommended for investment opportunities based on these market dynamics [1]

Group 1 - Hong Kong copper stocks experienced a collective rebound, with China Daye Nonferrous Metals leading the rise at approximately 9%, followed by Jiangxi Copper at 3%, and China Gold International and China Nonferrous Mining both up by 1.3% [1] - Mining giant Glencore is reportedly planning to close its Horne smelter and associated copper refinery in Quebec, Canada, due to environmental issues and the substantial capital required for upgrades [1] - The Horne smelter has an estimated annual production capacity of over 300,000 tons, accounting for about 17% of copper imports to the United States, indicating a significant impact on the North American copper supply chain [1] Group 2 - Earlier this year, traders moved large quantities of copper into the U.S. market in anticipation of potential tariffs on copper, which led to a surge in copper prices on the New York Mercantile Exchange (Comex) [1] - In August, former President Trump decided against imposing tariffs on bulk copper, instead targeting value-added copper products, while still leaving the possibility of tariffs on raw copper starting in 2027 [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is that copper stocks in Hong Kong have collectively rebounded, led by China Daye Nonferrous Metals with a rise of approximately 9% [1] - Glencore is planning to close its Horne smelter and associated copper refinery in Quebec, Canada, due to environmental issues and the need for significant capital investment for upgrades [1] - The Horne smelter has an estimated annual production capacity of over 300,000 tons, accounting for about 17% of copper imports to the United States, indicating a potential disruption in the North American copper supply chain [1] Group 2 - Earlier this year, traders moved large quantities of copper into the U.S. market in anticipation of potential tariffs on copper, leading to a surge in copper prices on the COMEX [1] - In August, former President Trump decided not to impose tariffs on bulk copper but targeted tariffs on processed copper products, while leaving the possibility of tariffs on raw copper starting in 2027 [1] Group 3 - The stock performance of key companies includes: - China Daye Nonferrous Metals: latest price 0.098, up 8.89% - Jiangxi Copper: latest price 30.740, up 2.95% - China Gold International: latest price 125.400, up 1.37% - China Nonferrous Mining: latest price 13.390, up 1.36% [2]

Group 1 - LME copper futures prices are experiencing weak fluctuations, opening at $10,631 per ton and currently at $10,635 per ton, with a decline of 0.27% [1] - On November 4, LME copper futures closed at $10,649 per ton, down 1.57% from the previous day [2] - The highest price during the trading session was $10,859.5 per ton, while the lowest was $10,577.5 per ton [2] Group 2 - The current spot price ratio of electrolytic copper in Shanghai to London is 8.01, indicating an import loss of -684.84 yuan per ton, improved from -871.53 yuan per ton the previous trading day [2] - Codelco, the Chilean state-owned copper company, has revised its 2025 copper production forecast to 1.31 to 1.34 million tons, down from the previous estimate of 1.34 to 1.37 million tons [2] - As of November 4, LME registered copper warrants totaled 122,975 tons, with canceled warrants at 10,925 tons, a decrease of 200 tons, while total copper inventory increased by 300 tons to 133,900 tons [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Macro - Finance**: Index futures are bullish in the medium - long term with a strategy of buying on dips; Treasury bonds are expected to move sideways [1][6] - **Black Building Materials**: Coking coal and rebar are for range trading; Glass is recommended for selling call options [1][8][9] - **Non - ferrous Metals**: Copper is advised to close long positions at high levels or engage in range short - term trading; Aluminum is recommended to buy on dips; Nickel suggests waiting and seeing or shorting on rallies; Tin, gold, and silver are for range trading [1][12][13] - **Energy and Chemicals**: PVC, caustic soda, styrene, rubber, urea, methanol, and polyolefins are expected to move sideways. Soda ash 01 contract follows a short - selling mindset [1][23][24][34] - **Cotton and Textile Industry Chain**: Cotton and cotton yarn are expected to move sideways; PTA is in low - level oscillation; Apples and jujubes are in weak oscillation [1][37][38] - **Agriculture and Animal Husbandry**: Pigs and eggs face pressure in rebounds; Corn is in a bottom - building oscillation; Soybean meal rebounds from a low level; Oils are in weak oscillation [1][41][48][49] 2. Core Views - The market is in a vacuum period of performance, events, and policies after the Sino - US trade negotiation, third - quarter reports, and the Fourth Plenary Session, so it will oscillate to wait for new changes at the end of the year [6] - The main trading line of Treasury bonds is not over, but the market is observing the scale and scope of the central bank's Treasury bond trading, so it is expected to move sideways [6] - The coal market has tight supply and demand, and prices are rising steadily. The supply of coking coal may be affected by the resumption of production in coal mines, and the price of rebar is expected to have limited downside space due to low valuation [8] - The supply of glass is high, demand is weak, and the overall supply - demand pattern is poor, so it is recommended to sell call options [10] - The short - term supply - demand situation of copper has limited support for prices, and it is expected to oscillate at a high level. The supply of aluminum may face adjustments, and it is recommended to take profit on long positions at high levels [12][14] - The supply of nickel may be more abundant in the medium - long term, and it is recommended to wait and see or short on rallies. The supply of tin is expected to improve, and it is recommended for range trading [18][20] - Precious metals are supported by interest - rate cut expectations and safe - haven needs, but are in a short - term adjustment state, and are recommended for range trading [20][22] - The supply - demand of PVC is still weak, and it is expected to oscillate. The supply of caustic soda is affected by alumina, and it is expected to oscillate weakly [23][25] - The cost of benzene ethylene is under pressure, and the overall chemical fundamentals are weak, so it is expected to oscillate. The cost support of rubber is insufficient, and it is expected to oscillate [26][28] - The supply of urea decreases, demand increases, and the price is expected to rise slightly. The supply of methanol is tight in some areas, and the port inventory pressure is high, so it is expected to oscillate [29][31] - The supply of polyolefins has new production capacity, and demand is mainly for rigid needs, so PE is expected to oscillate, and PP is expected to oscillate weakly [33] - The supply of soda ash is excessive, and it is recommended to maintain a short - selling mindset for the 01 contract [36] - The supply - demand of cotton and cotton yarn is expected to be stable, and it is expected to oscillate. The supply of PTA is in a state of inventory accumulation, and it is in low - level oscillation [37][38] - The quality of apples has declined, and consumption is weak, so the price is expected to decline. The price of jujubes is expected to decline [38][40] - The supply of pigs is large in the first half of next year, and prices face pressure. The supply of eggs is still large in the medium - long term, and prices face pressure [41][44] - The supply of corn is sufficient in the short term, and demand is weak, so it is in a bottom - building oscillation. The price of soybean meal is supported by cost and is expected to rebound [47][48] - Oils are under pressure in the short term but have support factors, and are expected to oscillate widely [54] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Macro - Finance - **Index Futures**: A - shares and Hong Kong stocks are generally down. The market lacks catalysts and is expected to oscillate. It is bullish in the medium - long term and recommended to buy on dips [6] - **Treasury Bonds**: Treasury bond futures have mixed performance. The market is observing the central bank's operations, and it is recommended to maintain a balanced allocation and expect sideways movement [6] 3.2 Black Building Materials - **Double - Coking Coal**: The coal market has tight supply and demand, and prices are rising. It is necessary to pay attention to the resumption of production in coal mines [8] - **Rebar**: The price has fallen, but the low valuation limits the downside space. It is recommended to buy on dips for the RB2601 contract and focus on the range of 3000 - 3200 [8] - **Glass**: The supply is high, demand is weak, and the overall supply - demand pattern is poor. It is recommended to sell the 01 contract out - of - the - money call options and hold them until expiration [10] 3.3 Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The price has reached a new high and then declined. The short - term supply - demand has limited support, and it is expected to oscillate at a high level. The recommended operating range of the main Shanghai copper contract is 85000 - 89000 [12][13] - **Aluminum**: The price of bauxite is under pressure, and the supply of electrolytic aluminum may face adjustments. It is recommended to take profit on long positions at high levels [14] - **Nickel**: The supply may be more abundant in the medium - long term, and it is recommended to wait and see or short on rallies [18] - **Tin**: The supply is expected to improve, and it is recommended for range trading, with the reference range of the Shanghai tin 12 contract being 275,000 - 295,000 yuan/ton [20] - **Silver and Gold**: They are supported by interest - rate cut expectations and safe - haven needs, are in a short - term adjustment state, and are recommended for range trading. The reference range of the Shanghai silver 12 contract is 10700 - 11600, and that of the Shanghai gold 12 contract is 890 - 940 [20][22] 3.4 Energy and Chemicals - **PVC**: The supply is high, demand is weak, and it is expected to oscillate. The 01 contract is temporarily concerned about the range of 4600 - 4800 [23] - **Caustic Soda**: The supply is affected by alumina, and it is expected to oscillate weakly. The 01 contract is temporarily concerned about the pressure at 2400 [24] - **Benzene Ethylene**: The cost is under pressure, and the overall chemical fundamentals are weak. It is expected to oscillate, and the range of 6300 - 6700 is concerned [26] - **Rubber**: The cost support is insufficient, and it is expected to oscillate. The support at 15000 is concerned [28] - **Urea**: The supply decreases, demand increases, and the price is expected to rise slightly. The 01 contract range is 1600 - 1700 [29][30] - **Methanol**: The supply is tight in some areas, and the port inventory pressure is high. It is expected to oscillate, and the 01 contract range is 2230 - 2330 [31][32] - **Polyolefins**: The supply has new production capacity, and demand is mainly for rigid needs. PE is expected to oscillate, paying attention to the support at 6900, and PP is expected to oscillate weakly, paying attention to the support at 6600 [33] - **Soda Ash**: The supply is excessive, and it is recommended to maintain a short - selling mindset for the 01 contract [36] 3.5 Cotton and Textile Industry Chain - **Cotton and Cotton Yarn**: The supply - demand is expected to be stable, and it is expected to oscillate [37] - **PTA**: The price is in low - level oscillation, and the supply is in a state of inventory accumulation. The concerned range is 4400 - 4700 [38] - **Apples and Jujubes**: The quality of apples has declined, consumption is weak, and the price is expected to decline. The price of jujubes is also expected to decline [38][40] 3.6 Agriculture and Animal Husbandry - **Pigs**: The 01 contract is under pressure due to postponed supply, and it is recommended to take profit on short positions gradually. The 03 and 05 contracts have large supply and weak demand in the first half of next year, and it is recommended to hold short positions. The 07 and 09 contracts should be carefully bottom - fishing [41] - **Eggs**: The 12 contract has a large premium over the spot, and it is recommended to short on rallies lightly. The 01 contract oscillates in the range of 3250 - 3400 [43][44] - **Corn**: The short - term supply is sufficient, and demand is weak. It is in a bottom - building oscillation, and the 01 contract oscillates in the range of 2050 - 2170. It is recommended to pay attention to the 3 - 5 positive spread [45][46][47] - **Soybean Meal**: It rebounds from a low level. The M2601 contract can take profit on a small scale at high levels and hold after a pullback. Spot enterprises can fix the basis from November to January at low points [48][49] - **Oils**: They are in a high - level adjustment, with palm oil being weak and soybean oil being strong. The 01 contracts of soybean, palm, and rapeseed oil should pay attention to the support levels of 7900 - 8000, 8450 - 8500, and 9250 - 9350 respectively, and not chase short. It is recommended to pay attention to the strategy of the narrowing spread of rapeseed - soybean 01 and the widening spread of soybean - palm 01 [49][54]

新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-11-05 市场普跌铜价同样呈现回落 关注价跌后下游反应情况 市场要闻与重要数据 期货行情： 2025-11-04，沪铜主力合约开于 87430元/吨，收于 85740元/吨，较前一交易日收盘-1.79%，昨日夜盘沪铜主力合 约开于 85000元/吨，收于 85690 元/吨，较昨日午后收盘下跌0.06%。 现货情况： 据 SMM 讯，昨日国内现货1#电解铜报价区间为86290至86890元/吨。现货市场对当月合约呈贴水70到升水70元/ 吨，均价与前一交易日相比微涨5元/吨。日间沪铜价格自86800元/吨持续下行至86400元/吨附近，当月合约进口亏 损已缩窄至约800元/吨。市场交投方面，下游普遍预期铜价仍有回落空间，采购意愿偏保守，上海地区整体买兴一 般。早间平水铜以贴水报价迅速成交，随后交投转淡；好铜供应依旧偏紧，但预计后半周到货后将缓和与平水铜 价差。非注册品牌虽被压价，成交仍有所回暖。展望后市，若铜价进一步跌破86000元/吨，或一定程度刺激采购， 但市场看空心态仍存。随着近远月价差收窄，预计持货商可能下调升水以促成交。 美国国会参议院再次未能通过联邦政府临时拨 ...